Guybrush20X6
Creator of Lego Theory
- Joined
- May 22, 2012
- Messages
- 15,882
- NNID
- Guybrush20X6
- 3DS FC
- 4253-3477-4804
- Switch FC
- SW-2140-7758-3904
Wanna have people belive your crazy predictions but no-one is buying that your uncle is Sakurai's drinking buddy?
Then you need STATISTICAL MUMBO JUMBO! It's easy and effective to use. just get some figures from the game be it character numbers or the amount of pictures with characters in 'em and get crunching. As long as the math make sense no one can argue. Here's some of my work in the field.
[collapse="Veteran to Newcomer ratio"]
So far we've gotten 12 veterans and 3 newcomers so if nothing else they're getting the expected ones out of the way. but that got me to thinking, how doe the previous games stand?
(All calculations have Sheik, Zamus and the Pokemon as separate characters)
64: 12 Newcomers
Melee: 12 Veterans - 14 Newcomers: 1 to 1.1666... ratio
Brawl: 21 Veterans - 18 Newcomers: 1 to 0.857 (rounded) ratio
If we go by Brawl's ratio and assume that all 39 movesets return, we get 30 newcomers
...
Yeah, not gonna happen.
But if we go off what we know of Smash 4's cast so far and then apply that ratio to the all vets return assumption.
12 Veterans - 3 newcomers: 0.25 ratio
0.25 * 39 = 9.75 or to round up, 10.
Edit:
I noticed a hole in my logic and and redid my calculations.
If we look at the first characters revealed
9 vererans to 3 newcomers
and doing the same calculations gets us 13 newcomers if all the Brawl vets return.
[/collapse]
[collapse="Character reveal rate"]
if this character a month thing keeps up and the game comes out december next year we'll have had 15 more reveals. If we take Brawl's 23 starters (Sheik and Zamus counted as seperate but PKMN trainer as 1) and subtract the 12 already confirmed we get 11 more vets to come (12 if you discount Luigi) which means 3-4 newcomers to be announced as starters.
[/collapse]
SO what are you waiting for? Cruch those numbers and predict this ****!
To get you started here's some figures
5: Amount of vets that can fit on a line on the official site
3: the amount of space a newcomer takes up
9: the number of slots on character pages.
And don't do any HALF LIFE 3 CONFIRMED nonsense. That joke is staler than lie cake.
Then you need STATISTICAL MUMBO JUMBO! It's easy and effective to use. just get some figures from the game be it character numbers or the amount of pictures with characters in 'em and get crunching. As long as the math make sense no one can argue. Here's some of my work in the field.
[collapse="Veteran to Newcomer ratio"]
So far we've gotten 12 veterans and 3 newcomers so if nothing else they're getting the expected ones out of the way. but that got me to thinking, how doe the previous games stand?
(All calculations have Sheik, Zamus and the Pokemon as separate characters)
64: 12 Newcomers
Melee: 12 Veterans - 14 Newcomers: 1 to 1.1666... ratio
Brawl: 21 Veterans - 18 Newcomers: 1 to 0.857 (rounded) ratio
If we go by Brawl's ratio and assume that all 39 movesets return, we get 30 newcomers
...
Yeah, not gonna happen.
But if we go off what we know of Smash 4's cast so far and then apply that ratio to the all vets return assumption.
12 Veterans - 3 newcomers: 0.25 ratio
0.25 * 39 = 9.75 or to round up, 10.
Edit:
I noticed a hole in my logic and and redid my calculations.
If we look at the first characters revealed
9 vererans to 3 newcomers
and doing the same calculations gets us 13 newcomers if all the Brawl vets return.
[/collapse]
[collapse="Character reveal rate"]
if this character a month thing keeps up and the game comes out december next year we'll have had 15 more reveals. If we take Brawl's 23 starters (Sheik and Zamus counted as seperate but PKMN trainer as 1) and subtract the 12 already confirmed we get 11 more vets to come (12 if you discount Luigi) which means 3-4 newcomers to be announced as starters.
[/collapse]
SO what are you waiting for? Cruch those numbers and predict this ****!
To get you started here's some figures
5: Amount of vets that can fit on a line on the official site
3: the amount of space a newcomer takes up
9: the number of slots on character pages.
And don't do any HALF LIFE 3 CONFIRMED nonsense. That joke is staler than lie cake.
