Will Brawl outsell Halo 3 ?

[Chi's Finest]

You can't find any of their sources on Wikipedia. Good try though ;-)

And you're saying I didn't corect you on this. Please go to the bottom of any Wikipedia page and you'll see all those numbered links are sources.

I didn't say MS says "Shipped=Sold", you did. You said they acknowledged it. I'm asking you to provide some proof of this.

Companies tend to be pretty accurate on sales and earnings. That's not exactly a fact that is commonly lied about....

 

[FireWater]

Jeff Bell's quote form December 10th.



Sales, not shipments.

Sales to Retail outlets, not to consumers. If publishers could track retail sales, they would not need to spend millions of dollars on NPD, which is a group that specifically tracks retail sales.

Sorry, but your quote fails.

 

[cdude1034]

And you're saying I didn't corect you on this. Please go to the bottom of any Wikipedia page and you'll see all those numbered links are sources.

I didn't say MS says "Shipped=Sold", you did. You said they acknowledged it. I'm asking you to provide some proof of this.

Companies tend to be pretty accurate on sales and earnings. That's not exactly a fact that is commonly lied about....

But the things is, they are technically sold. Once consoles are shipped to retailers, they've already posted earnings on them. Whether or not the retailer sells them has no impact on earnings.

Here's the cycle:

Store orders consoles

MS makes console in factory

Manufactured console shipped to warehouse

Console is shipped to retailer, retailer pays for console. <-- What MS tracks, and where they stop making money. This is what they use for earnings.

Retailer sells console to consumer for whatever they want, more often than not selling at the MSRP if they want to continue receiving consoles.

 

[Chi's Finest]

But the things is, they are technically sold. Once consoles are shipped to retailers, they've already posted earnings on them. Whether or not the retailer sells them has no impact on earnings.

Here's the cycle:

Store orders consoles

MS makes console in factory

Manufactured console shipped to warehouse

Console is shipped to retailer, retailer pays for console. <-- What MS tracks, and where they stop making money. This is what they use for earnings.

Retailer sells console to consumer for whatever they want, more often than not selling at the MSRP if they want to continue receiving consoles.

They have different figures for what is sold and shipped. Miscrosoft is reported back on whatever is sold from retailers.

 

[cdude1034]

They have different figures for what is sold and shipped. Miscrosoft is reported back on whatever is sold from retailers.

No, they are not. Keeping track of everything sold in every location of every store is quite a royal pain in the ***.

Microsoft's "shipped" figure is what's shipped to their warehouse.

 

[FireWater]

Cdude1034 is absolutely correct. Since microsoft does not retail directly to consumers, they have to monitor their own ship data. They only really care about how many retailers buy it, not so much consumers because they do not sell directly to them.

 

[cdude1034]

Cdude1034 is absolutely correct. Since microsoft does not retail directly to consumers, they have to monitor their own ship data. They only really care about how many retailers buy it, not so much consumers because they do not sell directly to them.

Yes! Thanks for explaining this. I'm just a little disappointed that I didn't state this myself in the first place.

 

[Chi's Finest]

Does anyone know how anyhting in Business works. the store report their sales back to the companies they buy the products from. The companies don't personally track the data themselves, the retailers report back to them. The same way Jewel reports info back to Coca-Coloa on soda they sold in their stores.

 

[Chaosblade77]

No, there have been more Xbox 360s sold than Wiis. Check it up on Wikipedia and the sourced links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360#Sales
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii#System_sales

That shouldn't be surprising information either. The 360 was out for a year before the Wii, and it sold fantastically well.

I think what everyone is getting confused with is monthly sales. Since the Wii debuted up until the month Halo 3 was launched, the Wii has consistently dominating Xbox 360 and PS3 sales. However, the month Halo 3 was launched marked the first time the Wii lost the lead. I don't know exactly what the monthly sales are like now, but the fact remains that overall the Xbox 360 has sold more units than the Wii.

Wii has dominated sales for each month since it's release with the exception of September 2007, where the 360 outsold it (this is not counting handhelds, but the DS is the only one that beats either of them anyway).

Also, look at the original numbers compared. 17 million > 13 million, but at the same time the statistics for the 360 are from 4 days ago while the statistics for the Wii are from September! Not only are you leaving out a little over 3 months of Wii sales, but that is the holiday rush and a large increase in Wii sales that was totally overlooked. The Wii is nearing 20 million units sold, and has been around for a year less than the 360 has, meaning it's sales are generally over twice as high.

As far as how well the 360 has sold, the PS3 has had comparable sales throughout it's lifetime. It didn't sell extremely well, but has picked up over the last year.

Halo 3 has sold over 8 million copies worldwide since it launched 3 months ago. Halo 3 outsold all but 5 of the top-selling video games of the past 7 years in 3 months.

The only thing that outsold Halo 3 so far are 3 Grand Theft Auto games, 2 Gran Turismo games, all of which had their sales as a result of being on the shelves for years, and Halo 3 has nearly outsold them 3 months

Isn't it safe to say that the majority of Halo 2 owners got Halo 3 as soon as possible? While the game sold extremely well, it has obviously not maintained that level of sales. It sold over 4 million it's first week, and in over 3 months, only sold 4 million more. Sales will probably continue to increase faster than that of an average game (eg most games that are not Halo). Brawl will not beat those first week sales (although I have read and heard numerous accounts of Brawl having more preorders and interest in specific, but not all, retailers).

There is also the fact people really devalue Brawl's hype. For the amount of advertising the game gets, it's incredibly hyped. Everyone I know who has even the slightest interest console gaming, save for a few people who "fear" the Wii's controller (they are just afraid to try it and won't even play the console) is interested in Brawl. Comparatively, most of them don't care much about Halo, although quite a few of them got it (and the only person who has said much about it says he thinks Halo 1 and 2 were better xD).

There is a lot more hype than people think, especially for a game which relies so much on "word of mouth" advertising. Halo had Mountain Dew bottles and billboards, Brawl has one site and tons of fans. It's doing pretty darn well in my opinion.

 

[cdude1034]

Does anyone know how anyhting in Business works. the store report their sales back to the companies they buy the products from. The companies don't personally track the data themselves, the retailers report back to them. The same way Jewel reports info back to Coca-Coloa on soda they sold in their stores.

Apples and oranges, buddy.

I admit I know nothing about how coca-cola tracks their sales, but chances are, since it's a completely different industry, it's prolly at least a little different.

Retailers don't report back to them, they order more consoles. This is why groups like NPD exist.

Apparently there are a lot of people who don't know how business works. These are the same people who don't know the purpose of a PR department :-P

 

[Lirok]

Halo 3 has sold over 8 million copies worldwide since it launched 3 months ago. Halo 3 outsold all but 5 of the top-selling video games of the past 7 years in 3 months.

The only thing that outsold Halo 3 so far are 3 Grand Theft Auto games, 2 Gran Turismo games, all of which had their sales as a result of being on the shelves for years, and Halo 3 has nearly outsold them 3 months

not many of those from japan though

basically i think brawl is going to be those numbers + japan

i dont know its just a basic thing i am always hearing that japan doesnt like halo nealy as much

might be wrong, but this argument (like many others) can go either way, so i wont be surprised if brawl doesnt outsell halo

 

[FireWater]

Does anyone know how anyhting in Business works. the store report their sales back to the companies they buy the products from. The companies don't personally track the data themselves, the retailers report back to them. The same way Jewel reports info back to Coca-Coloa on soda they sold in their stores.

Granted I study social sciences, not business, but everyone I have talked to says from publisher to retail, groups like NPD get compensated handsomely to research how well a publisher's product is doing retail to consumer.

If companies like MS or Nintendo can gather this data themselves, why does this other organization exist?

Just face it man, your logic is not correct here.

 

[Atire]

halo is a great game but brawl is better and more people have wiis. Of course it will beat halo

 

[cdude1034]

Hey, Chi, I did make a mistake, all of the big three track shipments to retailer, not just Sony and MS.

Ref here: http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=751

This contains an email from a Sony rep concerning sell through data (sold to retailers)

 

[FireWater]

Good find Cdude, I think post sums up our position quite nicely.

 

[5@/\/\U5]

Worldwide, yes. in NA, not quite

 

[Papapaint]

Wii has dominated sales for each month since it's release with the exception of September 2007, where the 360 outsold it (this is not counting handhelds, but the DS is the only one that beats either of them anyway).

Also, look at the original numbers compared. 17 million > 13 million, but at the same time the statistics for the 360 are from 4 days ago while the statistics for the Wii are from September! Not only are you leaving out a little over 3 months of Wii sales, but that is the holiday rush and a large increase in Wii sales that was totally overlooked. The Wii is nearing 20 million units sold, and has been around for a year less than the 360 has, meaning it's sales are generally over twice as high.

As far as how well the 360 has sold, the PS3 has had comparable sales throughout it's lifetime. It didn't sell extremely well, but has picked up over the last year.



Isn't it safe to say that the majority of Halo 2 owners got Halo 3 as soon as possible? While the game sold extremely well, it has obviously not maintained that level of sales. It sold over 4 million it's first week, and in over 3 months, only sold 4 million more. Sales will probably continue to increase faster than that of an average game (eg most games that are not Halo). Brawl will not beat those first week sales (although I have read and heard numerous accounts of Brawl having more preorders and interest in specific, but not all, retailers).

There is also the fact people really devalue Brawl's hype. For the amount of advertising the game gets, it's incredibly hyped. Everyone I know who has even the slightest interest console gaming, save for a few people who "fear" the Wii's controller (they are just afraid to try it and won't even play the console) is interested in Brawl. Comparatively, most of them don't care much about Halo, although quite a few of them got it (and the only person who has said much about it says he thinks Halo 1 and 2 were better xD).

There is a lot more hype than people think, especially for a game which relies so much on "word of mouth" advertising. Halo had Mountain Dew bottles and billboards, Brawl has one site and tons of fans. It's doing pretty darn well in my opinion.

Anecdotal evidence invalidates in argument. I know lots of people who are part of a small cult following, but it would ignorant of me to use that as a basis for an argument.

 

[Papapaint]

halo is a great game but brawl is better and more people have wiis. Of course it will beat halo

Wii =/= Smash brawl.

Much like 360=/= Halo 3.

It is not safe to presume that a majority of console owners will buy the games we think are big.

 

[DRaGZ]

Chaosblade:

Yeah, I see that you're right:

http://www.vgchartz.com/

I think this issue is going to come down to demographics.

Specifically, the majority of Xbox 360 owners are gamers, thus they are more likely to by a game primarily anticipated by gamers, which in this case is Halo 3.

The demographic of Wii owners, on the other hand, is split between non-gamers and gamers, thus the overall demographic is less likely to buy a game primarily anticipated, which is in this case Super Smash Bros. Brawl. Obviously, the gamers side will be more likely to buy Brawl, but the other side might be more inclined to get the mini-games and stuff that made the system so widely appealing in the first place.

Now, I don't know the exact percentages of gamers and non-gamers who own the Wii (I'm not sure anyone does), but I think this fact compounded by the fact that Halo 3 was FAR more hyped than Brawl will make it so Brawl won't outsell Halo 3.

But hell, I've been wrong before.

 

[mickaleaf]

I hope it doesn't sell TOOOO much where I live (see under my name) because I'm pre-ordering. Why? Because at Bestbuy.com I was pre-ordering and I finish step 3 and it says that the address doesn't work or something and blanked out all my awnsers. :D YAY!

 

[ShadeofDante]

Brawl I highly doubt will outsell Halo 3. Initially. Sure, over time Brawl may sell better, but the initial rush that Halo 3 had, I highly doubt any video game will be able to top those kinds of numbers. Honestly, it's an insane amount, even if it is "just mainly North America."

Of course, don't get me wrong either, Halo 3 was a slightly better looking version of Halo 2. Brawl looks to be at least 10x the amount of content and fun that Melee was. And Melee is 15x more fun than Halo 3.

 

[kad15]

i dont think itll beat the intial rush of halo 3
but i want brawl to beat it
LETS GO BRAWL

 

[freetyme]

Melee what was the biggest seller on Gamecube, but I think that at first Halo 3 will sell more. 360 is just a much more shooter fans with much more money (older audience). At the same time I think Brawl will have longer legs, Melee is still sold at retailers but I haven't really seen as much of Halo 1 and 2 that aren't used copies. In the end it doesn't matter, Halo launched the XBOX and become hugely popular. Wii Sports launched the Wii. Smash will sale great, just not as much at first (8 million?).

 

[cdude1034]

Melee what was the biggest seller on Gamecube, but I think that at first Halo 3 will sell more. 360 is just a much more shooter fans with much more money (older audience). At the same time I think Brawl will have longer legs, Melee is still sold at retailers but I haven't really seen as much of Halo 1 and 2 that aren't used copies. In the end it doesn't matter, Halo launched the XBOX and become hugely popular. Wii Sports launched the Wii. Smash will sale great, just not as much at first (8 million?).

Mario Kart DD barely edged Melee.

http://vgchartz.com/games/index.php?name=&console=GC&publisher=&genre=&keyword=&order=Sales

 

[Funkyboy]

Brawl will never outsell Halo 3. Why? Microsoft started advertising it one whole year before it was released.
Also, Halo is alot more mainstream, while Super Smash is more geared towards hardcore Nintendo fans: Everyone knows who Master Chief is, but can you say the same about Ike?

 

[Zuby]

Everyone knows who Master Chief is, but can you say the same about Ike?

No, but the likes of Mario, Sonic, Donkey Kong and Pikachu are more well known than Master Chief, so I think they balance out Ike, Pit and the other dregs.

 

[Mama]

Why are we comparing two profoundly different games again?

 

[SmashBro99]

Halo is one game, while Brawl will represent ALOT of games, yes it will outsell.

 

[Chi's Finest]

Halo is one game, while Brawl will represent ALOT of games, yes it will outsell.

What does that have to do with which will sell more?

"Brawl has someone in a space costume, but hers comes off! Halo on the other hand has someone in it the entire time! It will definately sell more!!1111one"

 

[dragonairex]

did an underground source say that SSBB had more pre-orders than Halo 3 ??

 

[Desruprot]

I wonder, that is some information wii need to find, I have some E3 information that the wii is selling more then 360 overall, this means higher poltential...

 

[PowerBomb]

Why are we comparing two profoundly different games again?

At least someone speaks some sense around here. No comparing no INSANELY different games,
on two INSANELY different consoles.

 

[Desruprot]

that depends, were comparing sales of them, not the game itself...

 

[Chi's Finest]

that depends, were comparing sales of them, not the game itself...

Exactly. Big MS game vs Big Nintendo game: Which will sell more? That's it.

 

[Hitzel]

As a big Halo fan, I was disgusted by Halo 3, so here's hoping that Brawl ultimately outsells Halo.

 

[FrogButler]

Brawl won't have the outstanding immediate success of Halo 3 but in the long run I can guarantee you that Brawl will sell more.

Why? Because the Wii has a WAY bigger install base already out there and there are tons of people (at least 20 i know personally) who are buying a Wii SPECIFICALLY for Brawl.

 

[Papapaint]

Brawl won't have the outstanding immediate success of Halo 3 but in the long run I can guarantee you that Brawl will sell more.

Why? Because the Wii has a WAY bigger install base already out there and there are tons of people (at least 20 i know personally) who are buying a Wii SPECIFICALLY for Brawl.

Why does everyone think this is evidence? Anecdotes do not help an argument.

 

[Kio Iranez]

Why does everyone think this is evidence? Anecdotes do not help an argument.

I like how you ignored his other comment. Beside that though, the Halo franchise has released all three of their games in the period that Melee was still a topselling game. If that's not enough, Brawl has much more followers right now than Melee did, so even if it isn't as competitive as melee, it will probably sell as much or more.

 

[UncleGrandfather]

I'm fairly sure that over time Brawl will oversell Halo 3. I don't know if anyone else has checked this, but at my local Gamestop, the preorders for Brawl are much higher than what they got for Halo 3. This may just be in my area, but I like to think that Brawl will outsell Halo 3 when it comes out.

 

[gangstajuice656]

i asked the guy at gamestop and he said that SSBB has more Pre-orders than Halo 3!!!! It's going to be a crazy mid-night release!!