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Undertale Mafia, 13 man! Game over! Town wins!

ranmaru

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Regarding Sang:

There's something I want to look into with the J wagon, but I'm going to keep that vague until I dig a bit deeper.
Did you ever show these results, Sang?

I'm starting to like Ryu a bit more, since he's no longer just hard focusing "Soup" and not looking at anybody else. I'm basing most of my view from pg 19 since there hasn't been much else, but I'm liking it so far.
I was looking for a quote and came upon this. How is this a good basis to read Ryu by? What is your actual read on Ryu this entire game, talk to me about his actions.

  • I somewhat agree with your suspicion of Gheb and it's something that I have been noticing throughout my re-read, but I will go into this more when I'm finished
  • Gheb's vote on J seems really out of place when it doesn't even look like it's supported beyond wanting J to answer some of his questions (is that just supposed to be something for pressure on J?).
I wonder why there has been no follow up with this.
 

ranmaru

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In terms of Gheb being townie, for instance in his #644 he asks people to explain why they were on the Rake waggon, in my opinion it seems more likely that Gheb wants people to explain themselves (townie) than he is looking for someone to mislynch (scummy).
I want to talk about this as well. Anyone can ask people for reasoning, and it benefits scum to ask people about opinions on someone that would flip town. (Not saying it makes Gheb scum, it just makes him asking null) Another issue I have with YOU is that you are asking for scummy posts when you should be looking at overall play. You did this with Soup early game and it's annoying. Please consider one's whole play and not just one aspect. Hopefully you can see my perspective with Ryu and Gheb though. Please re-consider my points on Gheb. I am willing to talk it out with you.
 

~ Gheb ~

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Yet you forget to consider the third party who doesn't count towards town majority. Does that not make it more likely there may be 2 instead of 3? Is this balanced?
I'm not forgetting anything. You can't let a 2-man scumteam go against 10 townies and you can't let a 2-man scumteam go against 9 townies.

:059:
 

~ Gheb ~

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Not seeing Ryu vs Ran legit attacking each other. It reeks of SvS / distancing.

:059:
 

SangfroidWarrior

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Sang, assuming you're right about Kary and Dietz, who'd be the 3rd mafioso in your opinion?
I am inclined to believe that it would be Ryu. His tunnel onto Ranmaru from D1 into D2 still just seems really scummy, and then, as you stated, his quick jump onto the J wagon just looks bad. A lot of his D1 posts are just one-liners and empty, and as soon as Ran was off the table he didn't really have much else. I mean, he had Koops at one point I think but even after dropping that he had nothing before hopping straight onto J.

re: keeping opinions open:

Depends on the situation. We're almost certainly in lylo. Not keeping options open and considering everything is straight-up foolish. That's an entirely different thing than sitting on the fence and not taking hard stances for pretty much the whole game. I don't think it's arguable that it's what you've been doing, I'd in fact be surprised if you tried to tell me that you have. Did I do that though? I've pretty much put my entire reputation at stake with my J push and my strict opposition to a Kary lynch yesterDay. I don't think you can accuse me of keeping options open, I just don't wanna blow this right now by tunneling one thing and disregard the rest.
I mean, I think that's fair, and I wasn't accusing you of doing it all game at all. I wasn't even denying that I've been doing it, because I know that I haven't really been taking hard stances, but I believe I've already explained why some time yesterDay. But, I also think that it's just a very weird thing for you to do at this point in the game with all that's happened.

Kary, Sang and Chibo should chip in their 0.02$ asap so we know what the deal is.
I'm not really against it, I guess, especially if we are in LyLo. I don't know how much it will give us, but at least it will be something.

You say 'despite his J push' yet to me Gheb's D2 play was almost exclusively a J push. What was it about his play that you liked- were there specific posts?
I say 'despite his J push' not to exclude that as something that he has done but more in terms of... I don't think his J push is scummy because he was more or less the first person to start the wagon and continued to put pressure. As he says, he put his neck on the line with that and I have a hard time believing scum would do that. There aren't any specific posts (I mean, I guess I could find some if I went back to look but I don't have that much time right now), but to me his D2 play just seemed more town than his D1 play.
 

SangfroidWarrior

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Please elaborate.
Gheb being on both wagons doesn't have a tell because of the way that he joined the wagons. I explained the J wagon thing above, and he joined the Rake wagon D1 when it looked like there was going to be no other alternative lynch to Rake.

Regarding Sang:

Did you ever show these results, Sang?

I was looking for a quote and came upon this. How is this a good basis to read Ryu by? What is your actual read on Ryu this entire game, talk to me about his actions.

I wonder why there has been no follow up with this.
To the first, I did. It's what I found with JD in my 1119. The reason I was waiting was because, as I explained, I didn't have enough to go off of at that point because we hadn't seen a flip on J and because I wanted more from JD. I actually wanted to wait until more into toDay but I realized that it's basically impossible to put off any longer. The manner in which he joined both wagons was scummy, IMO, but I wanted to read more from him and what was happening around it before I made a statement.

It was, at the time, a good basis to read Ryu by because he had done nothing but focus your slot D1 into D2. Like, a hard tunnel, which was really scummy. It was still something I was uncomfortable with but when he started posting more I liked him because he was posting more and not just hard focusing your slot. Regarding the rest, look above at my response to Gheb.

As for my 671, there was a follow-up, to which you even commented on. It was my 703. Since then, my read on Gheb has changed as that was early D2 and he was not my main focus then.

I'm also not feeling good about the fact that Sang's reasoning to dislike me boils down to "He was on the wrong wagons" and is a direct piggyback on Kary's post.

This post is hollow. Why is me being on every wagon (which for the record is a lame thing to harp on since literally every wagon in the game has been incorrect) bad, but at the end of the post in turn Gheb being on both wagons means nothing?

Where was this suspicion yesterday while we were playing? I have trouble believing that this post isn't filler entirely based on echoing what Kary said when he tipped his hand a bit into thread as to what his background thoughts were.

Is the fact that Kary agrees with the stance telling considering you're currently pushing Kary/Dietz?
It doesn't boil down to that, at least not from where I'm standing, but it did lead me to look more into your slot. Maybe I didn't explain fully, but it's not just that you were wrong on the wagons or 'on the wrong wagons'. You've been wrong about almost every read that you have posted (besides Soup/ran suspicion, which I think you've already dropped if the end of your post is any indication?) which, if we're being honest, you haven't really posted reads. Like, I do not recall you ever making a solid standpoint about your reads that you stuck by except the wagons. And, it's not really that you were on the wrong wagons. It's how you joined them. I would still find it suspicious if, say, J were to flip scum, honestly. You gave hardly any suspicion to Rake D1 until your vote, and you did the same with J D2. It all looks pretty suspicious to me.

I explained above why, from my perspective, Gheb being on both wagons is not a bad thing. And, again, it's not that you were on both but how you joined both. My suspicion didn't really start until near the end of D2 when I re-read because, honestly, I didn't remember much if any of your play throughout the Day. I wanted to keep it vague until I looked through it again because I wanted to have a full understanding if I was right. It was not based on echoing what Kary said. I actually don't see how my post was echoing what Kary said beyond it being suspicious, so I would appreciate if you could explain that bit to me.

It's not all that telling, honestly, as it could be a case of distancing. I read you two as scum separately, but if I'm right on you I may look at Kary a bit better.
 

ranmaru

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I'm going to eat now, but I'd also like to see you comment on your read on me. You said me switching to J was scummy, and I explained my actions. I want to know your stance and opinion on this before going any further. (Such as, why would I do that as scum) Thoughts on the Chibo slot? I'm finding that you seem to be looking at things that 'seem scummy' and not at actual scum intent. Am I getting that right?
 

SangfroidWarrior

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It's scummy in that you could easily have done that as scum and justified it the same way you are doing toDay. It's scummy because you had supported a Kary lynch up until the end of the Day and then, from my perspective and seemingly the perspective of other players, switched for no apparent reason other than "my reads changed". Which, reads changing is fine and all but when you suddenly switch without really explaining, when you switching leads to a hammer, and when that flip turns town it leads to a lot of suspicion on you. You would do that as scum because J's lynch was one that many people were going for, and you could see that as an opportunity to get another towny out. But, at the same time, as scum that would put you in the limelight and lead to people immediately suspecting you. Because I read you as town based on the rest of your play, I'm thinking that you saw it as the right thing to do, albeit a bad decision overall.

Chibo slot is hard null.

I'm looking at things that seem scummy, yes, but there's also scum intent in some of them. With my JD read, he has scum intent in that he would be able to push for getting two townies lynched by showing some actual support but then not really needing to push any beyond that. That way, he doesn't really get his hands dirty but he's still making it seem like he's doing something.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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I am inclined to believe that it would be Ryu. His tunnel onto Ranmaru from D1 into D2 still just seems really scummy, and then, as you stated, his quick jump onto the J wagon just looks bad. A lot of his D1 posts are just one-liners and empty, and as soon as Ran was off the table he didn't really have much else. I mean, he had Koops at one point I think but even after dropping that he had nothing before hopping straight onto J.
I voted J because he wasn't answering Kary and remained evasive on questions asked to him. He had no reason to act like this and as I talked and looked at the slots in the game I noticed that I agreed with Kary on his push with J.

So I voted that direction.

I went back to Ran because I do not buy his changed onto J one bit.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Dietz needs to give more, like asap.

Chibo just needs to post.

Ran needs to answer me and give me a reasonable explanation on his switch to J or he is scum.

That is where I stand right now.
 

CT Chia

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My apologies everyone, I was fairly sick this past week, out of work and nearly bed ridden. I'm getting over it now, and will be active again shortly.
 

Jdietz43

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Gheb being on both wagons doesn't have a tell because of the way that he joined the wagons. I explained the J wagon thing above, and he joined the Rake wagon D1 when it looked like there was going to be no other alternative lynch to Rake.



To the first, I did. It's what I found with JD in my 1119. The reason I was waiting was because, as I explained, I didn't have enough to go off of at that point because we hadn't seen a flip on J and because I wanted more from JD. I actually wanted to wait until more into toDay but I realized that it's basically impossible to put off any longer. The manner in which he joined both wagons was scummy, IMO, but I wanted to read more from him and what was happening around it before I made a statement.

It was, at the time, a good basis to read Ryu by because he had done nothing but focus your slot D1 into D2. Like, a hard tunnel, which was really scummy. It was still something I was uncomfortable with but when he started posting more I liked him because he was posting more and not just hard focusing your slot. Regarding the rest, look above at my response to Gheb.

As for my 671, there was a follow-up, to which you even commented on. It was my 703. Since then, my read on Gheb has changed as that was early D2 and he was not my main focus then.



It doesn't boil down to that, at least not from where I'm standing, but it did lead me to look more into your slot. Maybe I didn't explain fully, but it's not just that you were wrong on the wagons or 'on the wrong wagons'. You've been wrong about almost every read that you have posted (besides Soup/ran suspicion, which I think you've already dropped if the end of your post is any indication?) which, if we're being honest, you haven't really posted reads. Like, I do not recall you ever making a solid standpoint about your reads that you stuck by except the wagons. And, it's not really that you were on the wrong wagons. It's how you joined them. I would still find it suspicious if, say, J were to flip scum, honestly. You gave hardly any suspicion to Rake D1 until your vote, and you did the same with J D2. It all looks pretty suspicious to me.

I explained above why, from my perspective, Gheb being on both wagons is not a bad thing. And, again, it's not that you were on both but how you joined both. My suspicion didn't really start until near the end of D2 when I re-read because, honestly, I didn't remember much if any of your play throughout the Day. I wanted to keep it vague until I looked through it again because I wanted to have a full understanding if I was right. It was not based on echoing what Kary said. I actually don't see how my post was echoing what Kary said beyond it being suspicious, so I would appreciate if you could explain that bit to me.

It's not all that telling, honestly, as it could be a case of distancing. I read you two as scum separately, but if I'm right on you I may look at Kary a bit better.
Alright, but what I'm getting then is you're condemning me for having reads at all simply because we've not yet found scum. With the amount of people available for this game at any given time, I have felt that I need to contribute my vote to any wagon I saw that seemed like it had merit. Thread has known as much as I've felt on slots as I vote, and I don't think any of my votes have been unsubstantiated.

My problem is that just like you're condemning Ran for having opinions he can wave away coming back into toDay, you didn't hint at this push at all, or discuss it when I could have spoken about it. I say it's an echo of Kary, because you stated that suspicion by quoting a Kary post (who was the first to bring it up) without adding anything to it. You use a lot more words, but everything you've said can be boiled down to the exact stance Kary said with "Dietz in particular seems to have done nothing but pop up to criticize slots that flipped town." ; can it not? It doesn't feel like it's yours to claim and I have nothing to prove to me it isn't just something you're saying today because you saw someone else say it 12 hours beforehand and it was a very safe thing to echo.



Now, I asked everyone about Ranmaru because I'm getting the distinct feeling lines are being drawn around him on who does, and who doesn't want to claim suspicion on him. He strikes me as the easiest push to be making coming into toDay, and though I can assume I see where people are coming from on it, I'd really like for people to get specific. Because a lot of what I see can be seen as regular Ranmaru as well. If we're wrong it's probably over, but if we're right I'd like a trail.

Because if Ran is town I could easily see a Sang/Ryu/Gheb team pushing on Ran, or a Sang/Ryu/Chibo team with an inactive Chibo. And I think that's going to be the million dollar question today.
 

Jdietz43

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who's scum?
Atm I'm thinking Sang and Ryu are scum.

I'm unsure on the third, but I'm thinking Gheb based on how far Sang has held him at arm's length, and the double standard of him being good and me not.

Not sure if Sang and Ryu makes total sense yet, but fmpov I've seen almost no interaction between them to disprove it and they're imo the scummiest in a vacuum. I don't really believe Sang's push on me is genuine over extremely safe (who in thread cares if JD doesn't like it?), and Ryu has never done anything town-worthy compared to your intent.

Unfortunately Chibo is a wildcard and could easily swap out with the others, I'm hoping that changes before we have to make a choice though.



Talk to me about Ran, is he scum?
 

#HBC | Kary

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Atm I'm thinking Sang and Ryu are scum.

I'm unsure on the third, but I'm thinking Gheb based on how far Sang has held him at arm's length, and the double standard of him being good and me not.

Not sure if Sang and Ryu makes total sense yet, but fmpov I've seen almost no interaction between them to disprove it and they're imo the scummiest in a vacuum. I don't really believe Sang's push on me is genuine over extremely safe (who in thread cares if JD doesn't like it?), and Ryu has never done anything town-worthy compared to your intent.

Unfortunately Chibo is a wildcard and could easily swap out with the others, I'm hoping that changes before we have to make a choice though.

Talk to me about Ran, is he scum?
Your reads seem to be centered around Ran being town. I want to know what makes you think that. I agree that he could be seen as a very easy push toDay, but I also feel that he has done scummy things. I could elaborate but I want your thoughts on his slot first.

I also want to know why you think Sang's push isn't genuine when FMPOV it is only 'safe' and that isn't really telling.
 

#HBC | Kary

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Not seeing Ryu vs Ran legit attacking each other. It reeks of SvS / distancing.
Can you please go into more detail on this? Because I'm not seeing it.

I agree that Ran's play has been shifty and I can see that side of the argument, but I feel that Ryu has in general been against Ran-soup all game.
 

SangfroidWarrior

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SangfroidWarrior SangfroidWarrior why is Kary scum, really? What about her play screams scum? If anything Kary is my strongest town read.

Explain.
Nothing about it "screams" anything, but there are nuances in her play and things that she has done that make me believe she is scum. I can't get to this right now because I am busy with family stuff, but I will try to get to it tonight or tomorrow morning. In the meantime, you could probably look back through a few of my posts from yesterDay because I've hashed through a lot of the reasons that she's a scum read of mine.

Alright, but what I'm getting then is you're condemning me for having reads at all simply because we've not yet found scum. With the amount of people available for this game at any given time, I have felt that I need to contribute my vote to any wagon I saw that seemed like it had merit. Thread has known as much as I've felt on slots as I vote, and I don't think any of my votes have been unsubstantiated.
Well, I'm not condemning you for having reads. I'm calling you scum because you haven't had any reads. At least, you haven't had any reads that you've stuck by besides wagons and your votes. You come in, post about some "reads" you have and then you leave without really explaining them. The next time you come in your reads have suddenly changed, seemingly without reason. I have that word in quotes because I haven't actually seen you attempting to push or interact with your reads outside of the wagons, so they seem very faked. If I'm wrong, please show me where I'm incorrect but out of the posts that I've seen you haven't tried pushing any other avenue until just recently.

My problem is that just like you're condemning Ran for having opinions he can wave away coming back into toDay, you didn't hint at this push at all, or discuss it when I could have spoken about it. I say it's an echo of Kary, because you stated that suspicion by quoting a Kary post (who was the first to bring it up) without adding anything to it. You use a lot more words, but everything you've said can be boiled down to the exact stance Kary said with "Dietz in particular seems to have done nothing but pop up to criticize slots that flipped town." ; can it not? It doesn't feel like it's yours to claim and I have nothing to prove to me it isn't just something you're saying today because you saw someone else say it 12 hours beforehand and it was a very safe thing to echo.
To the bolded at the top, where am I condemning Ran? Also, why do you keep using this word "condemning"? Ran is a town read of mine, but I simply stated the reasons that I understand why people may think he is scum and why his actions can seem scummy. I'd appreciate if you'd actually read my posts instead of immediately firing back at me, because that's another thing you've misunderstood.

To the rest, I did hint at it (very vaguely and without your name, but I did) yesterDay, and I explained why I didn't want to get into it then in my response to Ran earlier. If you need me to, I will find that specific post, but I was talking with Ran about it yesterDay and into toDay. The thing is, I realized it near the very end of the Day yesterDay and didn't want to bring it up then because I realized that I wouldn't have enough time to go into it then and I didn't know if you would be back in time to discuss it. I mean, we're speaking about it now, so it's not like I'm making this post when you're not active, and I'm not trying to simply push you without trying to figure you out more. I simply used Kary's post to show that I'm not the only one that noticed it, but I did add more than just what Kary said. It's not only that you criticize town slots. You don't stick by your reads or explain them or interact with your reads more or anything. It's beyond criticism. It's just scummy play. Say what you will, but I have gotten nothing from your posts/responses to me that make me think that I'm wrong and/or that you might be town.

Now, I asked everyone about Ranmaru because I'm getting the distinct feeling lines are being drawn around him on who does, and who doesn't want to claim suspicion on him. He strikes me as the easiest push to be making coming into toDay, and though I can assume I see where people are coming from on it, I'd really like for people to get specific. Because a lot of what I see can be seen as regular Ranmaru as well. If we're wrong it's probably over, but if we're right I'd like a trail.

Because if Ran is town I could easily see a Sang/Ryu/Gheb team pushing on Ran, or a Sang/Ryu/Chibo team with an inactive Chibo. And I think that's going to be the million dollar question today.
Is this simply based on you believing that I think Ran is scum? Because that's already a fallacy right there, and I'm not pushing Ran. I'd like you to explain your scum reads on Gheb, Ryu, and me, because these are coming out of nowhere, IMO. Just from my perspective, it looks like your read on me only started after I said you were scum. Your explanations in your other post seem to be based on your scum read on me and your town read on Ran.

On another note, what do you think about the other people that are saying Ryu is scum?
 

~ Gheb ~

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Can you please go into more detail on this? Because I'm not seeing it.

I agree that Ran's play has been shifty and I can see that side of the argument, but I feel that Ryu has in general been against Ran-soup all game.
"Being against" somebody doesn't really mean anything. You can argue against somebody over the course of an entire game without actually making anything happen. Say what you want about Ryu, at the end of the day he hasn't done **** to get Ransoup lynched. He may have mentioned that he'd like to see him lynched but that's entirely inconsequential tbh.

Ran attacking Ryu comes pretty much entirely out of the blue so that's another thing that makes me think this whole 'debate' between them is ... weird.

:059:
 

#HBC | Kary

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"Being against" somebody doesn't really mean anything. You can argue against somebody over the course of an entire game without actually making anything happen. Say what you want about Ryu, at the end of the day he hasn't done **** to get Ransoup lynched. He may have mentioned that he'd like to see him lynched but that's entirely inconsequential tbh.
Yeah, but 'hasn't done anything' is pretty normal Ryu meta in my opinion. I realize that it is 'scummy play' on his part but from where I'm sitting it seems like he genuinely wants Ran dead, which makes me think it's unlikely to be SvS.
 

#HBC | Kary

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And yet you have Chibo as town based on PoE ? I don't get it, Gheb. Even if I give you that Ran & Ryu is SvS, why does the third end up between Sang/Dietz and Chibo gets off for free?
 

~ Gheb ~

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We have like 2 days left until deadline and nobody is doing anything of consequence so I'll just let you guys know that I'll be voting Ranmaru very soon.

:059:
 

CT Chia

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Urg I'm sorry I didn't know deadline was so close, snuck up between new years and getting sick right after it. Reading now~
 

ranmaru

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I realize that it is 'scummy play' on his part but from where I'm sitting it seems like he genuinely wants Ran dead.
I am not sure how you can take out anything genuine from Ryu's push on me, drops it when he has no ammo, and picks it up today when he is a worse offender.

I definitely like Sang's responses to my questions.
 

ranmaru

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I still want Ryu ToDay, and then Gheb. Just ask yourself, who has been more interested in finding scum, out of the three. Tell me who looked at Joey genuinely, Day 1.

Not Gheb. He hasn't been, his push D1 was Koops, who he dropped for some reason. (He said he may have been too harsh) Then came a push out of J from no where. Now he was trying to state Chibo was town from PoE which doesn't make sense. Gheb is only focusing on my D2, but he never considers my D1 play yet will never care too.
 

SangfroidWarrior

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SangfroidWarrior SangfroidWarrior why is Kary scum, really? What about her play screams scum? If anything Kary is my strongest town read.

Explain.
So, here are the posts that I made yesterday about why I think Kary is scum: #703 (under the spoiler) and #963. Beyond that, her responses to J just seem really weird to me because she's throwing everything back at him and it seems to me like all of her responses are "Yeah, I did this, but so did you, so you're scum!" and none of that really tips her off or makes her even start considering that J might be scum. Her entire vote on J just seems really out of place to me, because she says that she voted him to get him to start answering her but then J ignoring her changed into J being scummy. Her end of Day actions towards J sit very uncomfortably with me because she's basically gloating. Like, "I win, you lose" kind of gloating and I just don't see where that would come from if she was town. That's just a weak point because maybe it's just a difference in playstyle, but I don't see town doing that at all.

My problem is that I'm liking some of her posts from toDay, but there have been so few posts and interactions between people in general that I can't get a better read. I've been super busy so I haven't been able to do much, and hardly anybody else is really posting. Plus, I still don't like her play from D1 and D2.
 

SangfroidWarrior

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I still want Ryu ToDay, and then Gheb. Just ask yourself, who has been more interested in finding scum, out of the three. Tell me who looked at Joey genuinely, Day 1.

Not Gheb. He hasn't been, his push D1 was Koops, who he dropped for some reason. (He said he may have been too harsh) Then came a push out of J from no where. Now he was trying to state Chibo was town from PoE which doesn't make sense. Gheb is only focusing on my D2, but he never considers my D1 play yet will never care too.
What does this have to do with Joey? He flipped indie, right? Scum has an incentive to hunt in order to find an indie, so wouldn't people not scumhunting starting D2 be more telling?

Talk to me about Ryu. What do you think of the other people thinking he's scum? Why would Ryu and Gheb be a scum team? What are your thoughts about JDietz?

~ Gheb ~ ~ Gheb ~ , #HBC | Kary #HBC | Kary , #HBC | Red Ryu #HBC | Red Ryu - Thoughts on JDietz?

CT Chia CT Chia - When you get caught up, let's talk some. Who do you think is most likely to be scum?

I think that JDietz is the best lynch for toDay for reasons I've already stated, and I'm not down for a Ran lynch. Gheb's already stated this, but we only have 2 days left. I won't be able to post that much on the 13th because I go back to school/work then and will be in training all day, but I'll be here as much as I can.
 

#HBC | Kary

Fiend of Fire
Joined
Apr 10, 2012
Messages
4,965
Location
그루그 화산
I am not sure how you can take out anything genuine from Ryu's push on
me, drops it when he has no ammo, and picks it up today when he is a worse offender.
The point is not that Ryu is genuine. The point is that he wants you dead, which would be unusual for an SvS.
 

ranmaru

Smash Legend
Joined
Feb 10, 2008
Messages
13,297
Switch FC
SW-0654 7794 0698
I can talk about Ryu but I wonder why you are not open to lynching him toDay, Sang. (As I think he is the best lynch) Do you disagree with what I say?

Also, fair enough Kary.
 
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