Very good post, I especially like how well it was formatted with the ideas laid out. I must give everyone a warning though when reading my reply, I have not read any post in this thread besides the first post.
I especially enjoy the competitive vs competition part, and is almost the exact idea I was trying to convey with my better vs more competition statement which was alluded to in the first paragraph. To see the similarity, have my more competitive go along with Scar's competition, and better competitive go with Scar's competitive. It's not really exactly similar, but I think you can see the correlation. By my thoughts of Brawl being more competition, it will be more popular in competitions by the amount of people playing it and enjoying a game, however there's no denying that Melee is a better competitive game right now as Scar says.
However where I somewhat disagree with the first post a bit is the definition of those who should win will win. While the percentage of chance of this happening is better in Melee, it's because Brawl is new. As good as many of us were in Melee, there is still some set of a fresh start in Brawl. Obviously those who were awesome at Melee will have a good head start and will still be great at Brawl, but the gap between a Melee veteran and a new player won't be THAT huge, especially as it was in Melee. One of the biggest upsets recently was when Forte won the recent tournament (a Chu Dat biweekly I think?) But since Brawl is new and Forte is a new player, we don't know much about him. For all we know he might have imported or Wii Key'ed and played the hell out of it for the past few weeks or a month. While it's easily assumed that Azen can be the best Brawl player right now, because of how new it is it's possible that upsets can happen but as everyone gets more practice, the ones who are naturally more in touch with the game will continue to progress at a faster rate than those who simply aren't as good. Afterall, the game has TRULY been out for only a week, and enough time hasn't been given to widen the gap between players.
As for upsets, while they don't happen as much in Melee, they do happen. GOTM losing to that random Yoshi at Spoc 4 (lol jk), Cactuar losing to Teczero at Spoc 2, and I'm sure there's plenty more. Some people just have bad days. How are we so sure that Azen just wasn't on that good of a day and that Forte was having an amazing day?
As stale as the term is, it is too early to tell. Also on the subject of advanced techs, as much as people have been looking for them, Japan has been looking for them for like a month and a half, but it's safe to say that the US smash scene is far bigger than JP's, and we have only had it for a week officially. People have been looking, but it's more based on luck finding something. Sure, the more people that look helps, but it's all luck on if it's discovered, learned, documented, and applied to the metagame. Think of Mario 64 for those of you who are familiar with the 16 star speed runs (friends of mine probably are from hearing me talk about it endlessly haha). Think of all the people playing Mario 64, and one of the glitches to get through certain doors is the crazy backwards jumping up stairs (
example). No matter how hard millions of people search, something like that can only be found practically by mistake from one person lol.
Advanced techs are being discovered that really help though. Glide tossing and shield cancel grabbing are huge for the game. Glide tossing is effectively a new wavedash, and shield cancel grabbing is similar to jump cancel grabs, but can even get you through any attack, even a Meta Knights jab combo which I think is probably the fastest attack in the game (holding A with Meta Knight). It required frame perfect precision to get through it, and I can't do it consistently, but I have done it once or twice before. There are other notable techs such as shell-shifting/hydro-planning (But that one isn't really meta game changing since its for one character currently).
As for what's wrong with the Melee players as Scar was asking, while it's not all the time, it seems that the huge Melee supporters are people that are either new to Melee, or very good at the game and contempt with it. One reason why I like Brawl so much is because I have been playing Melee consistently since it came out, and 64 consistently the day that came out. I can still remember the exact day I bought Melee with the $50 gift card I got for Toys R Us before I went to my friends house where we had my game running for 5 hours with 4 controllers so I could unlock Mewtwo haha. I constantly smashed till dawn, and played with multiple people. It's still a great game and I still play it, but I like the fresh feel of Brawl so that's where I fall in those categories. Also, Brawl has a ton of my favorite characters from games, specifically Sonic and Toon Link.
I think that wraps it up for my monster post lol