My
flexible 49 character roster prediction (plus random slot).
Earthbound slot is a tossup. I could not reason out any single Mother character that has the greatest chance of making it. Heck, even Lucas could remain. Point is, I see two Mother reps.
Pokemon slot is a tossup. I see this slot going three ways: Jigglypuff (mostly since I don't see any of the original 12 being cut, but it's not impossible), Mewtwo, and Grovyle/Sceptile (because a fire and water starter has already been confirmed).
As for the rest of the
question mark slots, they're ALL tossups. However, they're organized specifically with reason:
*The slot underneath Meta Knight could go a few ways:
1)
Another retro character (most probable; I could see some retro characters fitting in, such as Takamaru, Lip, and Mike Jones).
2)
Another Kirby character (I honestly don't see this happening, but I do not deny the possibility).
3)
Any other character that would have a chance at making it.
*The slot underneath Krystal could go a few ways:
1)
A fourth Star Fox character (which would most likely be Wolf, since he has been in Brawl).
2)
Another retro character (mentioned above too).
3)
Another Pokemon character (although this would require the roster to be re-organized, probably).
4)
Any other character that would have a chance at making it.
*The slot underneath Sonic serves one purpose:
1)
Another third party character (I see 3 third party characters in the next Smash. Who is the third? I don't know. I don't feel like it will be Pac-Man though, as I feel he will be one of the S-flag assist trophies. Charizard is seen in one of the pictures holding up the S-flag like an assist trophy. This is probably where the Galaga Ships come from too).
*The slot above the random slot
could be anything:
1) Seriously, this slot could be re-organized to fit an additional character to any of these franchises, if needed. It could be an additional retro or third party character. Hell, Reggie could be in it too. I don't know. Point is, this slot is open to any possible character.
CUTS:
-Snake
-R.O.B.
-Squirtle
-Ivysaur
-Ike
-Wolf (POSSIBLY -- SEE KRYSTAL BELOW)
-Lucas (POSSIBLY -- SEE EARTHBOUND SLOT MENTIONING ABOVE)
Characters I've Debated Myself For Including:
-- King K. Rool: Personally, this slot is either going to be King K. Rool or Dixie Kong. I feel King K. Rool has a higher chance at making it as a playable character over Dixie Kong, given the Kremling appearances in Smash Run and his general popularity. However, Dixie still has a chance to be the third DK representative instead of King K. Rool.
--
Krystal: This slot could either go to Krystal or Wolf. If it came down to a tossup between Wolf and Krystal as the third Star Fox rep, I feel they would choose Krystal under the basis that they're making changes to
almost all of their major franchise line-ups in the roster (so far). I don't feel they will keep it simply the same. This is the NEXT SMASH BROTHERS. I also don't feel they will cut one for keeping two characters for Star Fox, as that would be a step backwards. I don't feel that they'll cut a Star Fox character under the relevance rule either (if that rule even exists). Also, Falco has seniority over Wolf, and Wolf could easily be given the "Roy/Mewtwo" treatment, meaning he has "had a chance at Smash, so why not give another character a chance?" This corresponds with arguments in favor of fresh/different and new characters rather than repeats (even if said repeated characters could get revamped; probably would see a new character over a revamped one, unless they're setting up the possibility of seniority, like in Falco's case).
Lastly, I honestly believe Retro's secret project is a new Star Fox game. Some Metroid fans would argue that the Star Fox franchise had a more recent installment (Star Fox 64 3D, 3 years ago, in 2011) than the Metroid franchise (Metroid: Other M, 4 years ago, in 2010). Yes, this is true. However, Star Fox 3D is a remake, not a new installment. Star Fox's last new installment was 8 years ago, in 2006 (Star Fox Command). It's time for Retro to live up to their name and revive another franchise (Star Fox), and to reveal it at the 2014 E3 (which would be the perfect time to announce Krystal, and could actually point to the Star Fox franchise having 4 representatives, including Wolf). This plays into the unexpected hype building, as it could be viewed as left-field by many who suspect a lack of a new Star Fox game at E3.
Retro might not be working on Star Fox at all. According to this leak of Nintendo's Digital 2014 E3 event, Platinum Studios could be working on a Star Fox title:
http://gameotakublog.wordpress.com/2014/05/10/leaked-nintendo-digital-event-2014/
Interestingly enough, the leak also claims that
all fighters and stages will be revealed at E3. I am very skeptical of this leak, though. There appears to be some inconsistencies with pre-existing knowledge regarding the release date of X and Tomodachi Life.
--
Lucina: This one is simple. It will either go to Chrom or Lucina. In all honesty, I could not reason between the two. Lucina is not included because I reasoned her out over Chrom. She's there for filler.
--
Mii: This one is a potential tossup. Instead of Mii, it could be another Pokemon character (5-6 reps for Pokemon, but I actually see 6 as a high possibility since there were 6 total playable Pokemon in Brawl, if you include the Pokemon trainer's Pokemon individually). It could be Reggie (given his popularity and special treatment during the Nintendo E3 announcement [hell, there was a human theoretically portrayed as
controlling Reggie during the Smash-focused E3 announcement]). Yes, I know, it's a Mega64 video and I shouldn't take it seriously. But, what if Reggie was announced as a playable character during his "hosting of the Smash Invitational". It would be left-field to the fans, thus creating MASSIVE hype, as evidenced by the large support for the Reggie petition. Other than that, it could be any other possible character, much like the slot above the random slot. Point is, it could be any character other than Mii; it does not have to be Mii.
The following is in the case of DLC, my
maximum 59 character flexible roster (if no DLC exists in the next Smash, consider this my dream roster). The unknown spaces follow the same rules as above.
I actually could see something like this happening, however a stretch it might be. Pokemon could easily get six reps, seeing as how Brawl had six different Pokemon to play as, counting the Pokemon Trainer's Pokemon individually. Technically, Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Charizard were each different models with their own animations, as opposed to the Ice Climbers, who share each other's shape + animations. Why would Pokemon go back to 5 reps if they had technically 6 in Brawl? We're counting
animated bodies here, not just roster spaces. Brawl had
39 animated bodies, if you count Zero Suit Samus, Sheik, and the Pokemon Trainer's Pokemon. Also, if Pokemon might get 6 in SSB4, why can't Mario or Zelda? This allows two franchises having 3 reps to balance out the 6 rows vertically, assuming they have viable characters to pitch (with the exception of Star Fox and Kirby, since they had 3 each in Brawl).
*The slot underneath Zero Suit Samus could go three ways:
1)
A third Metroid character (most likely).
2)
A second F-Zero character (least likely; Captain Falcon would go above this character if this happens).
3)
Any other character that would have a chance at making it.
*The slot underneath Palutena could go a three ways:
1)
Any other character that would have a chance at making it. (most likely, since Kid Icarus and Pikmin only have one rep each as it currently stands).
2)
A third Kid Icarus character.
3)
A third Pikmin character.
*The Fire Emblem slot could go three ways:
1)
Chrom.
2)
Lucina.
3)
Chrom + Lucina duo. (I don't see this happening, personally).
*The slot underneath Sonic serves one purpose:
1)
Another third party character (I see 3-4 third party characters in the next Smash in the case of DLC. Who is the third? I don't know. I don't feel like it will be Pac-Man though, as I feel he will be one of the S-flag assist trophies. Charizard is seen in one of the pictures holding up the S-flag like an assist trophy. This is probably where the Galaga Ships come from too).
*The Kirby slot could go two ways:
1)
A fourth Kirby character.
2)
Any other character that would have a chance at making it.
*The Gyromite slot is reserved for one purpose:
1)
Another retro character. (NOT Gyromite-oriented, FYI).
*The slot above the Random slot would go one way:
1)
Any other character that would have a chance at making it.
*The Wario slot could go 2-3 ways:
1)
A second Wario character.
2)
A second Yoshi character.
3)
Any other character that would have a chance at making it.
*
Earthbound slot is a tossup. I could not reason out any single Mother character that has the greatest chance of making it.
Characters I've Debated Myself For Including:
--
Quote: This slot could go to anyone. Quote however has a surprising amount of things going for him, though. Quote is included in this roster because of Dillon's official inclusion as an assist trophy; Dillon is originally from a
software download via eShop on the 3DS (the game is called "Dillon's Rolling Western"). If we wanted the
perfect eShop
and indie game representative, it would be Quote. Arguably the "Mario of indie games", Quote (from Cave Story) has been on
4 different Nintendo ports as software, including Cave Story WiiWare, Cave Story DSiWare, Cave Story on the 3DS eShop,
and the
hardware retail remake of Cave Story, "Cave Story 3D" on the 3DS. Cave Story even
continues to get ports onto Nintendo consoles, as Cave Story just became available in Europe via Nintendo 3DS eShop on May 1st, 2014. It is also thought that Cave Story has been directly referenced in
Sakurai's own recent game, Kid Icarus: Uprising.
--
Quote (continued): Quote would also be a perfect left-field character that very little would expect, but many would enjoy (if brought into his full potential). By the way, need I also mention that it's
Cave Story's 10th anniversary this year? Yes, the original Cave Story was released 10 years ago this December.
--
R.O.B.: It's either going to be R.O.B., or another retro character in this slot. Most likely having R.O.B. cut in favor of the new retro character. I feel that R.O.B. was a one-hit-wonder in Brawl fated to never appear as a character again.
--
Grovyle: This one is
very interesting. Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire were announced to release this November
worldwide. Now look at the Pokemon on the SSB4 roster
closely. Notice anything? Greninja is a
water type starter and Charizard is a
fire type starter. I don't think Mewtwo will be returning after all. I think we will be getting a
grass type starter instead to "complete the trifecta". It will most likely be Sceptile instead of Grovyle, since Greninja and Charizard are their final forms. This one could easily be announced at E3, as they delve deeper into the ruby/sapphire remakes.
CUTS:
-Snake
-R.O.B. (POTENTIALLY -- SEE ABOVE IN R.O.B. SLOT EXPLANATION)
-Squirtle
-Ivysaur
A
big point going against this potential post-DLC roster is the information Sakurai released a while back, stating that they simply don't have enough time to bring many vets from Brawl back. In other words, there could be more cuts than the ones mentioned above.
A final thought on the amount of reps a franchise can have:
On another thread Shadow312 mentioned something interesting regarding franchise representation:
I don't think a particular series deserves a certain amount of reps. Some of these series have singular characters that are the only ones popular enough to be considered. I don't know much about Metroid, but all I ever see is Samus (obv) and Ridley requested from it. I'm assuming that those two are the only main popular characters in the franchise. It just so happens Starfox is a game with a cast of characters that are a team, and all of them carry fanbases. So why can't there be 4 Starfox characters? I'm not saying I think there will be, and I'm not saying I think there won't be. It's impossible for us to know the true details of character selection.
I have to agree with this. The amount of characters for representation of a franchise only applies to the "Big 3", in my opinion (Mario, Zelda, and Pokemon). Every other franchise depends on character viability, beyond just simple popularity. Although, popularity does play a role in inclusion.
Lastly, I'm not going to mention unlockables, hence why I kept the roster non-colored. Hopefully they make the unlocking process enjoyable.
