6/17/2013
Here's my updated roster. I bumped up the roster size to 49, including Sheik, ZSS and 3 pokes in Pokemon Trainer's, and potentially the new form of Mewtwo. However, this roster is still a very conservative one. Not everyone I'd like is on here, but it is realistic, I think.
Cut from Brawl:
Ike
Lucas
Lucario
Toon Link
Wolf
Newcomers:
Bowser Jr.
Dixie Kong
Ghirahim (although I think Tingle could be interchangeable)
Shulk
Ridley
Palutena
Little Mac
Villager
Mewtwo (OR 6th gen pokemon. Determining a new pokemon for Smash Bros is very hard, however, I think Mewtwo having a new form in the 6th gen ups his chances of returning somewhat. If not Mewtwo, then some other 6th gen pokemon will be included.)
Wii Fit Trainer
Chrom (spiritual successor to Ike)
Megaman
Pac-Man
Mii
It is also worth noting Pokemon Trainer's pokemon may be changed as well.
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OP
Hi everybody. I’m a long time smash veteran, and little may you know, a Smash Forums vet from waaay back when Melee was first released. As details of SSB4 trickle in, I’m coming out of lurker-dom and poster retirement to post my roaster prediction. I rejoin you now as Vann Accessible. How do you do?
I’ve thought about this at length and I’ve tried to be as objective and realistic and conservative in my roster, and keep my personal feelings at a distance. There are characters on here who I genuinely want and there are also characters I’d rather see in the game than the ones on here. It's blunt but here it is.
First, I think a lot of people have way overestimated the amount of newcomers that will be in this game. Sakurai is aiming for balance over an enormous roster. I generally like this idea, but I also know that newcomers are what people pumped for a new Smash Bros. game. With that in mind, I’ve capped my total roster at about 45 on the character select screen disregarding transformations, on the Wii U version. Now you may say, that leads to about a total of a mere ten new characters, but I also think we can expect to see some veterans cut in lew of a few more significant characters. I also think this really detracts the chances of previously cut Melee characters returning.
Returning characters:
Mario
Luigi
Bowser
Peach
Yoshi
Wario
DK
Diddy
Link
Zelda/Sheik
Ganondorf
Toon Link
Pikachu
Jigglypuff
Pokemon Trainer (3 Pokemon to be determined)
Kirby
Metaknight
King Dedede
Samus/Zero Suit Samus
Fox
Falco
Wolf
Marth
Ike
Ness
Captain Falcon
Ice Climbers
Pit
Olimar
Mr. Game and Watch
R.O.B.
Sonic
Snake
Newcomers
Little Mac
Takumaru
Bowser Jr.
Dixie Kong
Girahim
Ridley
Undetermined 6th generation pokemon
Palutena
Shulk
Mii
Pac-Man
Megaman
Total roster 45, disregarding transformations. Including transformations: 48. To see my LENGTHY reasoning for this list, see wall o' text below. Read all of it for free candy.
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Who are we cutting from Brawl’s roster? Who matters less in the grand scheme of things?
I’m gonna start with the obvious one: Lucario. I know, I know, a lot of people love him. Well, a lot of people loved Mewtwo and Roy (and still do) and maintain hope they’ll return. Lucario was a flavor of the month, a fourth gen pokemon advertisement. The sixth gen will have been released for a year-ish by the time SSB4 is released, therefore, I think it’s easy to assume we’ll have a sixth generation representative of pokemon to replace Lucario. Also please consider, the issue of balance. Lucario’s aura gimmick has no basis in balance.
Pokemon Trainer: I still wonder at this character. It’s such a great idea at its core: 3 in 1, but the stamina thing severely weakens the character. Now, it isn’t impossible to think that maybe Pokemon Trainer gets the axe instead of Lucario in favor of newer pokemon, I think most people would agree that the first generation monsters are more significant to pokemon as a whole than Lucario, especially Charizard. Perhaps Pokemon Trainer will be modified with the sixth generation starters at various evolutionary levels, but I think Lucario being cut is more likely. Lucario’s gone. Pokemon Trainer will stay, in some form, but perhaps with new monsters.
Jigglypuff: I’ve seen this wished a lot. Jigglypuff may not be the most impressive character. However, she is continually popular in Japan, and a vet going all the way back to SSB64. She stays.
Lucas: Here’s a tough one. Mother 3’s been a while and I’m not confident the Mother series requires both characters for representation in the here and now. Ness is more representative of Earthbound as a whole, and in Smash Bros. However, I also made a realization here in the motive of exclusive characters: Ness’s game was on SNES. Lucas’s was on GBA. Perhaps Ness will be Wii U exclusive while Lucas will be 3DS exclusive. I’m still torn here. But that’s my idea and I’m sticking to it. Ness and Lucas will be version exclusive, if Lucas is not cut totally.
Ike: Same reasoning as Lucario and Lucas. Like Roy before him, Ike is a flavor of the month and Marth is more representative of Fire Emblem. Chrom is up and coming. BUT! Ike has the benefit of being the last FE lord to grace a home console, in two seperate games. So, Ike: Wii U exclusive, if not cut. Chrom 3DS exclusive, if Ike is not cut.
Toon Link: I was all but ready to give him the axe in favor of another Zelda character and another sword user, with the Toon Zelda series slowly dieing out. However, with the recent news of the Wind Waker remake for Wii U, I’ve reconsidered. Toon Link stays.
Ice Climbers. Stay, not so much for significance in history as much as for their uniqueness alone. I believe if they were going to be cut, they would’ve been cut in Brawl, and replaced with the Diddy/Dixie tag team. However, due their complexity, it’s possible they may be version exclusive to the Wii U version.
Sheik, as an extension of Zelda. Same logic as ICs. People say Sheik isn’t relevant to Zelda anymore. People say Impa is more relevant. First, Zelda turning into Impa doesn’t make sense, and they are two separate people. A tag team scenario is a stretch. Second, Ocarina of Time will always be significant. Also,let's not forget folks, OoT just had a remake not too long ago, revitalizing Sheik’s relevance in that regard. Sheik stays.
Mr. G&W: Nintendo’s first gaming icon. Stays.
R.O.B.: Valuable piece of Nintendo history and savior of console gaming. Stays.
Snake: I’ve seen quite a few people say Snake should go, because, A.) he doesn’t fit in Smash Bros and B.) he could be removed in lew of Simon Belmont as a Konami rep, who is more important to Nintendo’s history. However Kojima and Sakurai are buddies going way back. Kojima wanted him in Melee. I don’t think he’ll be cut honestly. Wouldn’t that be a slap in the face between friends?
Sonic: Most requested character in Brawl removed? I think not. Stay. Especially since Sega and Nintendo are so chummy with all these Mario and Sonic Olympics games.
Everyone else is an obvious gimmie for returning.
So, we’re left with Brawl’s roster, minus Lucario, with Lucas and Ike being possibly cut or version exclusives.
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Now for newcomers. I’ll order this from the certainties down to the less likely.
Unnamed 6th gen pokemon: I can pretty much damn well guarantee a sixth generation rep. What’s pokemon’s motto? Gotta exploit children’s OCD and trick the public into buying the same game (two or three times even)! Smash Bros ads of the newest pokemon gen are a staple. Pokemon X and Y will launch worldwide in October 2013, well before the predicted SSB4 release date of mid to late 2014. I think we can expect some new yet unrelieved poke-critter. Typically in the past, the monster deemed to be popular enough to be playable in SSB in the past has been the focus of a movie, see Mewtwo and Lucario. So except our new playable monster to appear in the next movie. Odds 99%.
Pac-Man or other Namco representative: Here’s what we know about Namco and third parties in general. Sakuari knows the need to limit 3rd party characters to a minimum, but he has acknowledged that there will be at least a few Namco Bandai employees are developing this game. At least one Namco character is a gimmie. Who is more repetitive of Namco than Pac-Man? Now while it is possible that it could be a Tekken or Soul Calibur character, these characters are already from fighting games, which are by their nature more violent. Ultimately it will be Sakurai’s call what characters get in, and I honestly don’t see Sakurai allowing uber realistic sex symbols into a Smash Bros. mixing it up with characters like Yoshi, Ness and Jigglypuff. Do you? Lloyd Irving is a possibility, but he has to contend with other, more deserving sword wielders. Pac-Man fits the best, and makes to most sense. Odds of a Namco character: 95%, Odds of it being Pac-Man: 80%.
Megaman/Other Capcom representative: We know that Sakurai contacted Capcom for a character. We also know that Sakurai knows that Megaman is the most desired Capcom character, if not the most desired third party character PERIOD, and probably the most significant Capcom character to Nintendo, with the series being mainstays of the NES, SNES and Gameboys. Megaman is probably one of the better fits for the needs of Smash Bros. Capcom and Nintendo have a great relationship. I see no reason for them to deny them. The one possible hitch I’ve heard is the rumor that Capcom is tired of Megaman. I don’t believe this is the case however. Megaman is to Capcom and Mario is to Nintendo. Maybe they left him out of Capcom vs Marvel knowing full well he’d wind up in Smash Bros. 4. Odds of Capcom representation: 95%. Odds of that representative being Megaman (or some form of Megaman): 80%.
Little Mac: Sakurai once stated the assist trophies in Brawl were characters once considered for the roster. I’d also say Little Mac is the Pit of this generation. The west loves Punch-Out. The icing on Mac’s cake is the fact that we’ve had a new Punch-Out game since Brawl on the Wii, revitalizing his significance. He’s significant to Nintendo going back to the NES, highly requested and has moveset potential. I think he’s a sho-in. Also, King Hippo assist trophy? Yes please. Odds: 90%.
Palutena: Sakurai loves his own characters, and his latest baby Kid Icarus: Uprising breathed new light into Palutena, not only in regards to her personality but also her potential moveset. The Kid Icarus series goes by Palutena’s Mirror in Japan, making her the namesake of the series to the east, not unlike Princess Zelda for LoZ. The need for new women is obvious, but also as a showcase for our new HD graphics, I think Palutena's green flowing hair would appear dazzling. Odds: 85%.
Dixie Kong or K. Rool: Now here’s a quandary. Dixie was supposed to be in Brawl as the Nana to Diddy’s Popo, while it seems K. Rool is more requested. Personally, I feel the need for female representation action beats out villain representation at this point. Putting feelings aside, let's be objective:
Dixie has actually starred in two games (six, if you count Gameboy ports/remakes). Also, Dixie has appeared much more recently than K Rool, in various Mario sports games and kart games and such. When was K. Rool’s last appearance anyway? Donkey Kong 64? That was released in 1999, 14 years ago. For some, unbeknownst to me reason, DK64 still has yet to be released on Wii virtual console. Another interesting note, the DKC trilogy was actually pulled FROM the Wii Virtual Console. Anyone know why?
Regardless, I’m gonna give this slot to Dixie, as I think she eeks out K. Rool for general importance, but really, it’ll be a toss up between the two for another DK character. But assuredly, we’re likely to at least see one of the two. I’ll say odds for at least one new DK rep: 80%. For both? Not so likely.
Ridley or other additional Metroid representation: Ridley most requested villain, new winged multi-jump character, and very significant as Metroid’s most reoccurring villain. Dark Samus is the main
other possibility, but one would think Megaman would better fit the build of new humanoid-hovering-robot-thing. But the Metroid Prime trilogy is done, and Ridley fits better anyway. Resizing him smaller back to his original NES Metroid size, is a non-issue, by Sakurai’s own admission. Odds: 80%.
Chrom: Newest Fire Emblem flavor of the month. I think the best odds say he replaces Ike, at the very least in 3DS version. Odds 75%.
Takumaru: Our random retro character from Nazo no Murasame Jō, a Famicom game, isn't so random. He’s obviously not a character Nintendo has forgotten; he’s been vetted in Captain Rainbow, Samurai Warriors and most lately Nintendoland. He also has interesting uniqueness among swordsmen with his samurai swordsmanship and shurikens. It is worth noting, one would think he detracts from the odds of other katana wielding characters such as like Samurai Goroh and Lyn. Odds: 75%.
Mii: The Miis are a new IP in and of themselves’ and would make for a good WTF character. You could insert your personal Mii’s face onto a generic body with a preset move-set and mix it up with Link and Fox. It would be a very Nintendo thing to do at this point. Odds: 65%.
New Mario Representative: Mario representation may be saturated at this point, but a new rep is worth discussing. This is a four way toss-up between Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, Toad and Waluigi. And it really pains me to say it, but Geno’s (and Mallow’s) odds are ruined by these other four, more requested ones, before even disregarding licensing issues with SquareEnix. Bowser Jr. is the most likely new Mario representative if any. He’s been present in every main Mario game since Sunshine, the most reoccurring villain besides his father, is now Bowser's sole heir to the throne (retcons piss me off), and there’s no reason for him to even be a clone. Paper Mario would be the second most likely, representing the Mario RPGs and an interesting new take on Mario. However, working against his favor is the fact that the 2D character thing has been done in Mr. G&W. Also, realize this is an HD game, with developers of games like Tekken and Soul Calibur who enjoy designing highly rendered polygonal characters. I think one flat character is enough for the HD spectacle this game will ultimately become. Toad arguments go back to pre-Melee, but even Sakurai has said by his own admission that Toad’s moveset potential is limited, although I would agree this is less the case lately with the playable Toads in the New Mario Bros. games offering some interesting ideas. Finally, Waluigi is a lame, unimaginative and obnoxious spin-off character and you should be ashamed of yourself if you support him.
Odds of new Mario character: 50%.
New Zelda Representation: Like Mario, Zelda may be fine at four reps. I’d say the three most likely candidates here are Tingle, Skull Kid and Girahim. As much as I love Toon Link, I was actually hoping he’d get the axe to make room for Skull Kid, and split the difference by making normal Link faster, but Wind Waker’s coming remake makes this less likely. Odds of new Zelda character: 50%.
Shulk: Xenoblade, which I am currently playing for the first time, Nintendo’s biggest new IP since Brawl’s release leads me to think representation is a gimmie. However, Xenoblade is still young and unproven and might be disregarded in favor of other franchises. Conversely, this could also work in his favor with the announcement of the new Monolift Soft game coming to Wii U, Shulk could serve as an advertisement. It’s also possible that Shulk could be a Wii U exclusive character. Odds: 50%.
Issac/Matthew: I really, really, REALLY wanted Isaac in Brawl. But Golden Sun’s brightest days were on GBA, prior to even Brawl’s release. The DS sequel didn’t do so hot. Golden Sun ain’t that hip back east like it is in the US. I can easily see Isaac being overlooked in-favor of newer franchises like Xenoblade and other sword users like Chrom, Takamaru, Shulk, Saki and Girahim. I would say Isaac’s best shot is being a 3DS exclusive character, but even that seems farfetched at this point. Odds: 30%
Mewtwo: The most likely previously cut character to return. However, I fear Mewtwo will get shunned again in favor of the relentless conveyor belt of newer and more better-er pokemans. Remember him with fondness. Odds: 30%.
Andy or other Wars character: I’d love to see Andy whacking people with that big wrench of his. But it seems unlikely given the sheer amount of better known character options. His best bet, like Isaac, would be being a 3DS exclusive character. Odds: 30%
Ray or other Custom Robo character: I think this tiny robot will have to duke it out with Megaman for a gun-toting 'bot slot. More likely than other IP’s, but still unlikely. Odds: 25%
Krystal: I’m not confident Star Fox needs another rep, but Krystal would be the obvious one. Pros: she’s a girl and fights with a staff! Yay. Cons: Less necessary for female representation after Palutena (and possibly Dixie), and she didn’t even merit an assist trophy last game. Boo. Odds: 25%.
Saki/Isa: Sin and Punishment had a new game last console cycle, and both Sin and Punishment games have also had the benefit of western release. Saki was also acknowledged with an assist trophy in Brawl. On the downside, Saki competes with other, more deserving sword wielders. Odds: 25%.
Animal Crossing character: I believe Sakurai’s Brawl logic will endure. Animal Crossing is best represented in the form of a stage, rather than a playable character like the forgettable generic playable character (especially when you consider the better alternative of playable Miis), Tom Nook or Mr. Resetti. Odds: 20%.
Other Retro characters, New Unproven IPs and other IPs: Professor Layton, Dillion, Captain Rainbow and Zael all will lose out to Xenoblade's Shulk for the new IP spot. They’re unlikely, but not impossible. Hunter, (my self-applied name for the Duck Hunt Dog, which I find clever, more clever than “Ice Climbers” anyway), Balloon Fighter, Prince Sable, Sukapon, Tin Star, Mike Jones, Dr. Wright, Stafy, Chibi Robo, and whatever other obscure character you want to argue will most likely get shafted in favor of Little Mac and/or Takumaru for the new Retro character spots. These guys are all assist trophy fodder at best. Meet us back here in 2020 for SSB5 guys. In the meanwhile, wanna be assist trophies?
Additional F-Zero character: No new installments in years, F-Zero is adequately represented by Captain Falcon. The most likely one would’ve been Samurai Goroh, who will be looked over by other, more renowned sword wielders, especially Takamaru, another katana wielding samurai. Odds: 10%
Additional Earthbound character: Honestly, I’d be more surprised of Lucas not being cut rather than seeing another new Mother character. Maybe if we ever get Mother 4. In the mean time, Earthbound is already over-saturated with two reps and a third ain’t gonna happen. Odds: 10%
Louie or new Pikmin 3 character: Even with Pikmin 3's imminent release, I don't see Pikmin having a second representative. Give Olimar some rock and flying pikmin though. Odds: 10%.
Other previously-cut Melee characters: Dr. Mario, Young Link, Pichu and Roy were cut for a reason. I don’t think we should expect them back given the vast options for new characters, even within each of their own respective series. Sorry Roy lovers. Odds: 10%.
Additional 3rd party characters: I’m going to cap 3rd party guests at four. Sakurai has stated he doesn’t want too many outsiders here. We already have Sega with Sonic and Konami with Snake. Expecting more characters from either of those companies sounds greedy, even if Tails or Simon Belmont would be interesting. Namco and Capcom characters are a given. Square’s inclusion would’ve been nice with a Final Fantasy character, or Chrono (or Geno), but it seems highly unlikely. Odds: 5%.
Thoughts?
(Edited for typos: 3/5/13. VA)
