Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[A Distant Demon]

Why in the world would scrapped data ever be added to the game in an update. From the beginning? fine just like the dr mario viruses In r and the firbidden 7 in brawl.

But how utterly incompetent do you have to be to add not only a victory file for roy but a victory file for a 3rd party character as well as stage music for characters that must have been scrapped over a year go. Like how.

 

[Troykv]

Why in the world would scrapped data ever be added to the game in an update. From the beginning? fine just like the dr mario viruses In r and the firbidden 7 in brawl.

But how utterly incompetent do you have to be to add not only a victory file for roy but a victory file for a 3rd party character as well as stage music for characters that must have been scrapped over a year go. Like how.

The only explanation to put Third Party information in a game where that third party don't have relation is drugs (?)

 

[A Distant Demon]

You know what lets dig deeper. Ryu is getting rated tomorrow anyway.

"Red herring to fool data miners"
to do this the coders would have to specifically trying to troll fans. Now by itself thats a bad idea
But lets throw roy into the equation. He is absurdley popular there and does pretty well for himself in the west. But the game, if i have my facts rught, is made in japan where roy love is the loudest. That means that if it was a false bit of code that is a lot of fans you just pissed off. Not a good idea.

"Scrapped"
see my earlier post. They had to explicitely add multiple pieces of data from 2 very big characters. One has 2 references which means 2 **** ups.
do you really think the people making this game would screw up that hard? Plus with mega man exusting the code would have to be at least 2 years old right? I dont know too much about game design but i dont think your 2 year old dead files should be anyway near the full game.

Code doesnt just accidently get copied and pasted into the game like that.

"Alt"
Why would this time cause a totally andom change in actions. Why would THIS alt need files no one else does. Why would sakurai say mario with a doc outfit isnt okay but a totally different person isnt?


Look i know the community has been burned by leaks before (esrb, tos, the piggyback leak with mach rider) but come one.

 

[ES. Dinah]

Pichu

Chances: 10%

Pichu was a really terrible addition to melee, imho. He was so hard to use because of the damaging itself part. I really don't think he has much of a chance but it should be known that he was a clone and a real crappy one at that.

Want: 0%

He is cute... but I really don't want him back in smash. We need less clones and that should get into Sakurai's head!

Nominations: KOS-MOS X5!

 

[Aetheri]

Meanwhile, something else I've noticed. They said they had to re-code Mewtwo from scratch, didn't they? Melee's code was too antiquated for them to work with, so they had to build him from the ground up? If all Mewtwo being a Melee vet did was let them skip one planning stage...then wouldn't that mean Pichu wouldn't actually be easy to make at all?

Well they have Pikachu to work with however...Mewtwo didn't have a clone in Smash 4 to work with so everything had to be done from scratch, but Pichu does...they literally could make a copy of Pikachu, with a new model, altered hit/hurt boxes and perhaps adding some new animations and audio if they really wanted to...same can be said for Roy if they decide to leave him as a Marth clone...

 

[Laniv]

Pichu:

Chance: 5%

Hah.

Want: 45%

I liked Pichu.
Fight me

Ryu Predictions: 80%

Nominate Daisy x 5

 

[Substitution]

Pichu
Chance: 40%
As much as I think Pichu is a god among men, sadly it does have quite a bit of infamy. Especially with it's joke character status. However, with the recent push for bringing back veterans (and with enough support) I think he can come back.

Want: 100%
It's the only way I can die happy. Bringing of the best characters of Smash back into the limelight.

Nominations:
Concept: Customized Alts x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Pichu
Chance: 10% - Their an easy to make veteran so that should keep them in the running. They also still have a decent amount of popularity in Japan, getting more than four times as many votes as Sceptile in that DLC poll they did. I don't even think their hatebase hurts them that much since most of it revolved around the fact that they were a joke character. Simply give them a stronger more balanced moveset and you'll reduce half the hatebase easily.
Want: 40% - I have an absolute Love-Hate relationship with this character.

Ryu prediction: 85%

Nominations: DLC Music Pack x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[colder_than_ice]

PICHU
CHANCE: 17.54%
WANT: 34.54%​

Pichu pulled off another mediocre score and is our lowest rated veteran yet. Next up we're rating Ryu, and please predict what score Phoenix Wright will get tomorrow.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Ryu:

Chance: 99.9% Same reason as Roy. The files are in there, the Kirby glitch on classic, and he's one of the most iconic Video Game characters in history.

Want: 80% Personally I'm more excited for Roy but I'm still excited for Ryu too.

Prediction :

Phoenix Wright: 3.45%

Nominate:

Mach Riderx3

Professor Layton x2

 

[Moydow]

Ryu
Chance: 90%
Same as I gave Roy.

Want: 25%
Played as him a few times in other games. Not entirely sure he'd fit into Smash, though.

Prediction for Phoenix Wright: 7.16%

Nominations: Anna (Fire Emblem) x3
Professor Layton x2

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Ryu
Chance: 50%
Insert everything that has been said on Roy's day and everything that will be said today, including how much Capcom loves Ryu and the fact that Ryu has somewhat of a connection with Nintendo, but add skepticism.

Want: 30%
I'm warming up to the idea of Ryu in Smash, but I'm not too big on him as a fighter and I never played Street Fighter nor any of the crossover fighters Ryu is in (but I am thinking about getting UMvC3...). I don't oppose Ryu, I just have other picks on my mind. In terms of 3rd parties, I rather have Bomberman. In terms of Capcom characters, I rather have Amaterasu and...

Phoenix Wright Prediction: 1.52%
This famous defense lawyer. I don't think that he will do well at all, but the scores from the prosecution have been oddly generous...

Now that my client is now going to get rated, I am feeling kinda musical.

Nominations: DLC Music Pack 5x

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ryu Chance: 99%
I feel like there's little reason to explain why he's likely at this point. I cannot deny the files in the game, that's enough for me to see that he's going to be in.

Ryu Want:
20% Not that excited for him, as I'm not a fan of non-Smash Bros fighting games.

Phoenix Wright Prediction:
13.435% If we don't get Phoenix Wright gifs on this day, I will cry.

Nominations:
x5 Young Link

 

[IceBreakerXY]

Ryu change:98%
He's in the fies in of the game so there's no arguing he's coming in at one point or another.And it makes sense i know alot of us don't want to admit it hell i don't want to admit but Ryu is way more iconic than megaman and no doubt will sell amazingly well.

Ryu Want:100%

I love Street fighter...characters.Ryu,Ken,Bison,Chun li,Guile,Dan,Akuma,etc there some of my favorite non nintendo characters and also thought it would be cool if one of them ever got in smash.Will i'm getting my wish with Ryu true i would rather have chun li but Ryu is just as cool to and that hadouken nothing more to say other than that.Plus we could get guile's theme in the game.That enough should make people want Ryu

Phoneix Wright prediction:17%
OBJECTION!This lawyer has a bone to pick with capcom,megaman and street fighter however he's a lawyer not that scary

Captain syrup x4
slippy x 1

 

[Moydow]

If we don't get Phoenix Wright gifs on this day, I will cry.

Don't worry, I got us covered in that department.

 

[Deleted member]

Spoiler: Ryu Theme - Street Fighter II (Arcade)

Spoiler: Guile Theme - Super Street Fighter II (Arcade)

Ryu

Chance: 95%

Chance: 90%

So why didn't I rate Roy at exactly 100%? Because Sakurai could possibly either change his mind last minute or have a different role planned for him. The only data found was a sound file, after all. He's certainly not near completion as of the post.

With Ryu being a third party character, if Sakurai changed his mind about featuring him for whatever reason, then obtaining the license to use him would have been a waste of both time and money. Because of this, I'm more confident in his inclusion than Roy's, but I took off 5% in case Sakurai does make the odd decision of changing his mind.

Want: 85%

There are other Street Fighter characters (Chun Li, Guy) as well as other Capcom characters in general (Zero, Amaterasu, Phoenix Wright) that I would prefer over Ryu, but I can't deny that he and Mega Man are the company's two most iconic properties. He would also be a good fit for Smash.

Prediction: Phoenix Wright - 6%

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5

 

[Troykv]

Ryu:

Chance: 99%

Have Third Party music is a really big deal... can be a big fail unless he it's actually a playable character... and Sakurai isn't a idiot xD.. And remember... He is the Hadouken Guy, that guy that everyone with some game culture knows.

Want: 90%

I'm the guy that love to see random "HADOUKEN!" in the necesary situations... I really want to play with him...

Predictions: Phoenix Wright

Chance: 10%
Want: 45%

Nominations:

Micaiah x3
Tiki x1
Kos-mos x1

Random Edit PD Thing: Wow... Two Capcom Characters in the same day xD

 

[Aetheri]

If Ryu becomes a playable character, I'd like to see a Chun Li Assist Trophy!!<3

Ryu

Chance: 94%
Pretty much the same as Roy, but I docked a percent because Third Party and not a Veteran to Smash. The Sound files are there...

But let's talk about Ryu himself first of all....Why is he special?

He's the face of Street Fighter one of the poster childs for Fighting games. Street Fighter II is arguably one of the greatest video games of all time. Ryu (like Snake) is an icon to his respective genre. In Ryu's case it is fighting genre. THIS IS A BIG DEAL because Smash wouldn't even be around if it weren't for the existence of Street Fighter which pretty much defined the genre. Ryu is arguably the most iconic character from Street Fighter (Chun-Li an easy second) so Ryu coming into Smash just makes sense overall. Let's also not forget the fact that he is Capcom's property, a third party company that has already collaborated and already contributed Megaman into the game. heck the only reason people would not consider Ryu (before the leak) is because of an 'unconfirmed' rule 1 Third Party rep per company. With Ryu coming along it pretty much nullifies this rule. (Bayonetta doesn't seem so farfetch'd anymore)

...anyways as for the leak which so far seems very much legitimate seemingly from a reliable source, two sound files were found being Ryu's victory theme and a stage theme...some may be somewhat skeptical seeing as the themes seem to be ripped straight from the Street Fighter games, but then again Smash likes to pay homage to gaming history and it could very well be possible that they want to keep things retro in this case...

Overall if there was no leak, with third party, the unconfirmed third party reps rule and his somewhat non existent support Ryu's chances would've been a measly 1-2%...but now...not so much...

----

Want: 70%
At first I was kinda like, really? Ryu of all people...but when you really think about it how cool would it be to HADOUKEN Mario right in the face!? Or to do an actual, SHORYUKEN!!! And his moveset is pretty much already set in stone, I mean if you're unsure what he could do just go watch some gameplay, pretty much everything is right there in front of you. And let's not forget about an Evil Ryu Final Smash...

actually you know what? Watch This! This'll pretty much some up his moveset quite nicely...maybe a few minor changes but it looks pretty solid...

He'd be a pretty fun character me thinks...Imagine an actual fighting game character in Smash!

----

Predictions: 4.51%
Phoenix Wright
isn't he a lawyer...I thought people hate lawyers....

----

Nominations:
Dark Samus x5
aka. NOT leaked game data

 

[StormC]

Good to know my ten votes from yesterday went to good use.

Previous rankings:

Spoiler

1. K. Rool: 75%/100%
2. Banjo-Kazooie: 10%/70%
3. Isaac: 60%/40%
4. Bandana Dee: 50%/25%
5. Captain Toad: 25%/15%
6. Krystal: 25%/15%
7. Dixie Kong: 50%/50%
8. Impa: 50%/40%
9. Shantae: 15%/40%
10. Inklings: 55%/40%
11. Rayman: 30%/40%
12. Snake: 40%/70%
13. Wolf: 85%/60%
14. Shovel Knight: 20%/40%
15. Quote: 15%/45%
16. Ice Climbers: 10%/35%
17. Sceptile: 20%/50%
18. Wonder Red: 20%/35%
19. Promoted NPCs: 5%/Abstain
20. Henry Fleming: 15%/15%
21: Paper Mario: 30%/20%
22. Roy: 95%/0%
23. Ridley: 5%/80%
24. Chorus Kids: 25%/35%
25. DLC Alternate Costumes: 75%/75%
26. Magalor: 15%/30%
27. Midna/Link: 1%/5%
28. Ray: 20%/35%
29. Tetra: 20%/20%
30. Pichu: 15%/0%

Chance: 90%. Only slightly below Roy because Roy has people actually demanding him.

Want: 30%. Like others, I'm warming up to Ryu, but I find the character himself rather bland. Don't know what he'll do besides just be a port over from Street Fighter, but we'll see, I guess.

Geno 5x

Phoenix Wright prediction: 15%

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

Ryu
Chance: 50%
I have more doubts with him than Roy. True he's in the files, but we still have no clue what it means, it could be he's DLC, or its just something else.

Want: 0%
I'm not to big with third party characters, Obscure first party character>third party character, plus I think we have enough third party characters and don't need more, Snake would be the only exception I would make because he's a veteran.

Prediction: Phoenix Wright 7%

Nominations: BB bandit trio X5.

 

[JBRPG]

Ryu:

Chance: 99%

Want: 60%

Even though Ryu is the biggest icon in fighting games and smash could not exist without, I do not mind playing him when I get a chance.

Prediction: Phoenix Wright - 25%

Nomination: Lip x 5

 

[AlphaSSB]

RYU​

Chance: 5%
- As with Roy, this is in no way whatsoever taking these appearent sound files into account. It just doesn't seem likely, seeing as CAPCOM already has Mega Man. It's possible, but without those disgusting sound files, it's not at all very likely.

Want: 0%
- CAPCOM alrready has Mega Man as their rep. No third-party should have more than one rep.

Prediction: Phoenix Wright - 5%
Note: My prediction does not reflect my opinion

Nominations: Dark Samus x5
Well... Metroid does need a new rep... and if we can't get Ridley...

 

[Smasher 101]

@ ShinyRegice gets the extra five for Pichu's day.

Spoiler

Past Chance Scores:

Roy: 99%
Wolf: 99%
King K. Rool: 50%
Dixie Kong: 50%
Inklings: 40%
Isaac: 40%
Snake: 30%
Impa: 30%
Captain Toad: 30%
Chorus Kids: 20%
Rayman: 20%
Pichu: 20%
Bandana Dee: 20%
Paper Mario: 15%
Krystal: 15%
Wonder Red: 15%
Tetra: 15%
Ray: 10%
Ice Climbers: 10%
Sceptile: 5%
Magolor: 5%
Banjo-Kazooie: 5%
Henry Fleming: 3%
Quote: 1%
Shantae: 1%
Shovel Knight: 0.5%
Midna & Wolf Link: 0.5%
Ridley: 0%

DLC Alternate Costumes: 65%
Promoted NPCs: 0.5%

Past Want Scores:

Banjo-Kazooie: 100%
King K. Rool: 100%
Ice Climbers: 100%
Isaac: 100%
Ridley: 100%
Dixie Kong: 100%
Wolf: 100%
Rayman: 70%
Captain Toad: 60%
Inklings: 55%
Snake: 50%
Impa: 50%
Ray: 50%
Wonder Red: 50%
Magolor: 40%
Tetra: 30%
Roy: 20%
Bandana Dee: 20%
Henry Fleming: 20%
Pichu: 20%
Paper Mario: 5%
Krystal: 5%
Quote: 5%
Chorus Kids: 5%
Shantae: 0%
Shovel Knight: 0%
Sceptile: 0%
Midna & Wolf Link: 0%

Promoted NPCs: 100%
DLC Alternate Costumes: 50%

Ryu's chances: 99%

I cannot see him not getting in at this point.

Want: 35%

The main thing keeping my want score on the low side is his being a Capcom character; I personally prefer that there be one character per third party company. But I still don't mind him too much, his franchise is certainly a legendary one and he would be a interesting Smash fighter. Definitely more interested in him than Roy.

Phoenix Wright prediction: 4.19%

Is it bad that I'm more interested in potential GIF-filled posts than actually rating the character himself?

Nominations: Squirtle x5

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

This was the moment I've been waiting for since I have a lot to say in regards to this barefoot wonder. *cue Guile's Ryu's theme*

Ryu:

Chance: 99.9%
For the same reason as Roy, this guys files sure as hell were uncovered from that recent patch. Not only is he Capcom's second most iconic character in history, but Street Fighter as a whole is a pioneer plc competitive 2D fighters. This alone makes his appearance in Smash a HUGE deal and I can see why Sakurai would make such a bold move. It would attract more Street Fighter fans into the Super Smash Bros. fanbase and inspire plenty of competitive gamers too partake in future Smash tournaments after the usual Street Fighter on EVO. Whether you seen the series in the cheesy live action films or the excellent UDON comics, you would know that the series is actually the one thing that is keeping Capcom alive these days now that Mega Man is currently on life support. Ryu is a welcome addition due to his iconic status and being Capcom's current poster boy for crossovers since Marvel vs. Capcom in the 90's.

Want: 80%
Call this guy boring all you want, but his balanced style and shoto moveset would make him a fun character. Who knows, they might even spice him up with some things like the Focus Attack or Super Meter to make him really stand out from the Mario Shoto Bros in the roster. While I wasn't on board with this guy at first due to Crapcom's favoritism of the series these days, thinking 'bout how important he is to gaming and some words of wisdom from my beloved sweets (GF) had fully convinced me that he would be a fantastic addition. Sorry Zangief and Vega, but my beloved tertiary main might as well be my new third party main the day he's officially revealed. Like Sexy Silvia would say, "Let's get in on!".

Prediction:

Phoenix Wright: 5%

Save it for the judge, Capcom already has their two iconic characters in the roster. Your chances are pretty short and *in Manfred's demonic voice* you won't be returning from the ashes of this hellhole.

Nominate: Princess Daisy x3

 

[Bebe Mignon]

RYU
Chance: 90%
Want: 0%

PHOENIX WRIGHT
Prediction: 5.67%

NOMINATION
Elma x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I am most happy for @XenoBrawler610's directory - so much easier to find my old posts since I'm doing a lot of repeating myself...

Ryu

Chance: 87%

As I said with our boy...

So the files kind of seal it. To play devil's advocate, we don't know much about those files, only that they're sounds. May I remind you that if sound files were all it took to have a character in the game, we'd be talking about Brawl's Mewtwo, Dixie, and PraMai. I don't know if those files truly mean that he'll be next, or if it means that they were planning him way back when, and then used the dummied out slot to put Mewtwo in - That would explain why most data is gone except some legacy sound byte. Particularly since it's not a new file, it's just a copy of the other Fire Emblem themes, and Ryu's isn't even remixed in the slightest.

So yeah, they were patched in - which looks like a confirmation - but that's it. We don't know if those are unused character slots or to-be-used ones. I'll believe when I see a model in game. A bit less likely due to 3rd party/newcomer/etc...

Now about Ryu in particular - this is what a 3rd party should be. I have never played Street Fighter, but I know exactly who Ryu is, and I can tell his name and origin game just by looking at his picture. That is being an icon, and that is why a 3rd party should get in Smash. Not to mention that he's basically the poster boy for all fighting games, one of which is Smash. Furthermore, there's no argument that he has potential - he's from a fighter, so he can bring over loads of moves that he actually uses! (No offense, but the 'this character has loads of potential since he can use all these weapons that someone else used in his home game' argument is fundamentally flawed...sorry Tetra fans, but Toon Link didn't even get those weapons and he's the one who actually used them in Wind Waker...)
​

Want: 70%

I was against it at first - I dislike 3rd parties on principle unless they're super iconic. Well, here is one. The more I think about it, the more okay with it I am. Hopefully if we do get him he gets a red gi and blond hair recolor (lol) and the mother of fighting games deigns to make an appearance as an assist trophy. They've already got her leg animations if they borrow them from those ******* chest things in Smash Run
​

Prediction: Phoenix Wright - 19.5%

​

Nomination:Ghirahim x2
Squirtle x3

​

 

[N3ON]

Ryu

Chance: 95%
The plans for his inclusion could go south but they probably won't. He was obviously far enough in negotiations and development to actually be partially programmed into the game. Any points other than he was found in the sound files here is irrelevant.

Want: 5%
I've tried looking at it from a different perspective, but I still don't want Ryu in the game. Fighting game characters are a weird fit in Smash imo, and if we had to get any I'm glad it's Ryu, he certainly has enough "credentials" but I still don't want him. Any other character that I'd give such a low score to I'd consider not even picking up when they release, but my boyfriend is a big SF fan, so I'm probably going to end up seeing a lot of him in Smash. ;P

 

[TechPowah]

the Kirby glitch on classic

Wait, what? Is there a Kirby glitch that helps point towards Ryu and/or Fire Emblem!Roy?

 

[CyberWolfBia]

Ryu----

Chance: 87%
Oh boy.. the horizon is looking pretty bright for the Endless Wanderer! ; .. With files added specifically for upcoming DLC fighters and he being among them, I'm sure that can't be a coincidence! .. If it was files scrapped since the beginning of the game, there in the disc/cartridge since the retail release, would be a different story.. But I'm pretty optimistic with this! =D
--And besides, is not like he doesn't fit in any of the criteria of choice of Third Parties until now. =P..

Want: 100%
I have to admit that I never thought about that;... with Mega Man being added (a natural pick to represent a whole company) I thought that any other Capcom character would be out of question (and many people thought this way too).. But I'm so glad I was wrong!
--after Smash, Street Fighter is my favorite fighting franchise! And Ryu is my favorite character! and being an big enthusiastic of a Nintendo vs. Capcom crossover, I couldn't be more glad to have Ryu facing Mario (at least!)
I can thank SF and Ryu for introducing me to Fighting Games, without that I'd never play Smash64, probably...
So yeah, I'm pretty excited with his addition! Can't wait! ^^

 

[Icedragonadam]

Wait, what? Is there a Kirby glitch that helps point towards Ryu and/or Fire Emblem!Roy?

In the 3DS version on classic, Kirby characters will sometimes be fought on Battlefield instead of Dreamland. Common consensus is that the game is trying to find the unknown Kirby DLC stage but couldn't find it and uses Battlefield as a placeholder. And it just so happens that the Patch 1.0.6 data mine contained 2 new Kirby songs pointing to a Kirby DLC stage(most likely Dreamland 64).

 

[Troykv]

Wait, what? Is there a Kirby glitch that helps point towards Ryu and/or Fire Emblem!Roy?

The Leak also have a new (or old returning) Kirby's stage... And a little glitch with that stage makes Kirby can fight against him (or other Kirby Fighters) in the Classic Mode... in Battlefield... Is weird.

 

[smileMasky]

Ryu
Chance 99.9%
by that off chance it gets scraped but the leaks have been proven solid.

want 65%
at first I did not want him in for reason that are some what personal opinion.
but I now just accepted it and some what root for him being a fun character.

Nomination
Ninten x 5 come on the last mother rep from the first game he needs to a least be some what present as a trophy

 

[Leafeon523]

Lets get the easy stuff out of the way:
Xin eohp prediction: 4.2%
Nominating 6+ dlc characters x5

Alright, time to activate my flame shield...
l--------------l
l--------------l
l--------------l
^My flame shield

Ryu: Chance: 1%

There's no possibility in the slightest that Wii U owners will receive Street fighter 5. Here's a quote from Game Informer regarding Street Fighter 5's ps4 exclusivity:
"Sony made it clear that the game is not merely a timed exclusive and will remain on the PS4."

If Nintendo planned on putting Ryu in smash 4, then why on earth would they not make any attempt to have Street Fighter 5 ported over to Wii U? It does not make sense from either perspective. Not to mention giving Capcom a second spot without Sega or Namco getting one is absurd. If you wanted to play Street Fighter on a Nintendo system, your only real choice is Super Street Fighter 3d, which was a 3ds launch title.


But wait, there are sound files in the game!
So? Gematsu has taught me that leaks are absolutely worthless, no matter how convincing their fans will make you believe they are. Remember all the 90+% ratings Chorus Kids got? Also, Roy had an unused victory theme back in brawl, and was never added to the game or even put on the initial ssb4 roster. Not to mention there is another piece of "in game data" that made everyone flip out when it was revealed: The Sneaky Spirit. Remember when it was found at e3? Everyone thought that since no unrepresented series had a character in smash run, then we must be getting a rhythm heaven character. But there is no Rhythm Heaven character, and both them and ice climber had an enemy without a rep. Its just how these things end up working.

Want: 80%
Yet I'm still hoping I'm wrong on this one. Ryu seems like he would be a very fun character.But right now I feel like Ryu's hype train will end up with Rayman's:

Also, good on everyone for not putting in an 100% rating based solely on one leak alone.

 

[Zerp]

Spoiler

Roy C 85% W 30% (opinion has now changed to 0% want)
Ridley C 5% W 70%
Chorus Kiddos C 17% W 10%
Magolor C 23% W 100%
Midna and inferior Star Wolf C 0% W 0%
Ray C 10% W 20%
Tetra C 15% W 40%
Pichu C 45% W 90%
Dlccostumes C 75% W 90%

Ryu
Chance: 75% Has a lot of evidence in form of leak, but still no actual proof.
Want: 5% I don't really care much about him, sorry, and I'd much rather see Phoenix Wright as a cap com rep than him.
Nominations: Dark Matter x 5
Predictions: Phoenix Wright 10%

Let's just hope and pray this doesn't turn as heated as/or revive the Roy debacle. That would be neither good nor fun, would it?

 

[N3ON]

@ Leafeon523
Yeah, doesn't matter how many credible people confirm actual perceptible data is present, all leaks are not only worthless, but as credible as a single source reporting on something with no tangible evidence.

C'mon now...

Also last time I checked there was only one piece of info regarding Gematsu that doesn't line up exactly with fact. But if we assume Sakurai was bending the truth about that one part, which he's known to do, then it's all accounted for.

 

[NintenRob]

Ryu
Chance: 60%
The only proof of these files I've seen is the Kirby stage glitch, the rest is just people saying that there is a file in the game. For all we know it could just be a big hoax. And we don't know if this will ever amount to anything, maybe its just a placeholder for whoever wins the ballot? Who knows! 60% is still a reasonably high score since it is more likely than not he will be playable but still.
Want: 25%
I don't like having two third party characters from the one company, the only good thing about him is that Fighter Kirby will also be a thing

nominate R.O.B. eye bug fix x5

Prediction Pheonix Wright 5.87%

 

[Delzethin]

Hoo boy. This one's gonna be controversial.

-♪-

Ryu

Chance: 30%
Yes, the victory theme file is there. Let's make that clear...again. Yes, Ryu is an iconic character, the biggest face of fighting games. Capcom is already working closely with Nintendo, and already gave the go-ahead for Mega Man.

And yet...as with Roy, I can't help but think there's more going on under the surface. Is Ryu an iconic character? Yes. But is he iconic in the context of Nintendo? That's questionable. Since Street Fighter II, the series' only Nintendo presence has been through ports and spotty crossover appearances in what few of his multiplatform games actually got released on Nintendo systems. And as @ Leafeon523 mentioned, the fact that Street Fighter V isn't coming to the Wii U raises further questions.

Furthermore, there's the victory theme itself. It's a straight rip from Street Fighter II, a jarring contrast to the modernized victory themes of every other playable character. Why would Ryu break that mold in such an inexplicable way?

It doesn't make sense.

I have a theory that'd explain everything. I actually haven't seen it brought up before, which is surprising considering how many theories get thrown around. It's...admittedly a little unconventional.

I think that sound file...is for a Mii Brawler costume.

Capcom's been very open with lending Nintendo their characters this time around. In fact, they're the only third party company so far to lend assets for Mii costumes, with X and Proto Man in the first batch. They're very clearly cool with the idea of having costumes made of their characters, and while Ryu may be questionably iconic in the context of a Nintendo fighter, he's definitely enough so to have a costume based on him.

Furthermore, check out the Mii costumes we already have...specifically, which Mii type is lacking them. Where the Swordfighter has Link, Dunban, and the monkey costume, and the Gunner has X and Proto Man (and now, creepy ass Inkling costumes), the Brawler only has the cat suit aside from the t-shirt and jeans that all three classes get. Could they possibly be hiding one still, one they want to save to be one of several surprise announcements during the inevitable Smash part of their E3 presentation?

And then there's the victory theme. While a straight rip from an old game wouldn't make sense for a full character, it would make sense as a neat little shout out to anyone using a certain optional costume. While we haven't seen it happen with the first wave of costumes, it isn't the kind of thing that has to be there--they can choose when to do it, as with how Mario Kart 8 changes the post-race theme for its DLC tracks based on F-Zero or Animal Crossing but not the ones based on Zelda or Excitebike.

It makes sense.

Then again, we've seen so many curveballs over the last couple years that it's hard to say the option that makes the most sense will happen. Hell, quite a few times it's only made sense in hindsight.

It seems we'll only know for sure...when time is up and Nintendo's E3 presentation happens.

Want: 27.5%
Compared to a lot of the fighters we have so far, Ryu seems...kinda bland, to be honest. Novelties and iconic moves aside, a semi-generic martial artist with a couple ki attacks doesn't stand out much. Part of me worries he'd feel more like franchise lip service than be an interesting character with an equally interesting moveset.

Then again, I was worried about Pac-Man being the same way, and they did one hell of a job with him. Maybe if Ryu is in after all, my fears would be unfounded.


Phoenix Wright Prediction: 4.25%
A minor (in comparison) third party character from a company who may already by getting a second one? His predicted odds'll take a hit for that. And that isn't even getting into how the hell he'd fight, especially if he couldn't rely on the same playstyle he had in his only other fighting game appearance...


Nominations:
Geno x4
Alpha-Form Stages x1

 

[Kalimdori]

Spoiler: My Chance Ratings

To compare with my other ratings. I'm of the opinion that Nintendo will milk the DLC hype train for as much cash as they can, and recent events have only strengthened that notion. As such, I expect plenty of DLC characters.

Chance: 100%
Want: 100%

Chance: 99%
Want: 100%

DLC Alts Chance: 95%
Want: 100%

King K. Rool Chance 80%
Want: 75%

Bandanna Dee Chance: 70%
Want: 95%

NPC DLC Character Chance: 65%
Want: 100%

Isaac Chance: 65%
Want: 85%

Captain Toad Chance: 58%
Want: 90%

Paper Mario Chance: 55%
Want: 0%

Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

Chance: 50%
Want: 80%

Inkling Chance: 50%
Want: 20%

Rayman Chance: 40%
Want: 100%

Chance: 40%
Want: 60%

Dixie Chance: 39%
Want: 49%

Sceptile Chance: 25%
Want: 100%

Ray Chance: 25%
Want: 65%

Impa Chance: 25%
Want: 60%

Banjo Chance: 20%
Want: 100%

Krystal Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

Quote Chance: 10%
Want: 95%

Chorus Kids Chance: 10%
Want: 40%

Ridley Chance: 5%
Want: 100%

Shantae Chance: 5%
Want: 15%

Tetra Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Shovel Knight Chance: 3%
Want: 70%

Magolor Chance: 1%
Want: 20%

Henry Fleming Chance: 1%
Want: 5%

Midna and Wolf Link Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Ryu Chance: 100%
(As with Roy, closer to 99.999999etc, but I hate decimals)

Anyone that puts this under 90 is in denial. I've never used that word in this forum because it's a bit of a buzz word for me, I really don't like it, but I don't know any other way to put it.

The sound files were patched into the game. THIRD PARTY songs were patched into the game. The files are CONFIRMED ( at these conspiracy theories) by MULTIPLE CREDIBLE SOURCES to be there, THIRD PARTY CHARACTER themes that Sakurai would have to get the RIGHTS too are currently IN Smash 4.

I'd post a big argument like I did with Roy, but I'm pretty sure that alone speaks for itself, and if you can't see that there's no hope that I'll convince you otherwise.

Want: 60%

I've never played a street fighter game, I've never given him any thought prior to the leak, but I suppose he could be fun, and it means third party DLC is a thing, which makes me happy!

Wright Predictions: 8%

Noms: Waluigi x5

 

[Chandeelure]

-Ryu:

Chances: 98%

Want: 70%
I'm more hyped about the possibility of SF content in Smash (like music) than Ryu himself.

-Phoenix Wright Prediction: 4,7%

-Nominations: Geno X5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Ryu chances: 99.71%
Not giving an absolute 100% under the "Anything can happen" rule, because maybe those data could represent Street Fighter related contents that isn't an actual fighter, or he could be scrapped... which are all very unlikely I think. For once I doubt Nintendo would get the rights to use Street Fighter data, even as unused ghost data, if it meant that he would be scrapped later. Plus those files (SF music + victory theme) seem too convincing for me to be anything besides a fully-fledged fighter.

Also, putting the biggest icon of fighting games in the biggest fighting game crossover makes sense when you think about it, especially when Street Fighter II for what I believe has been the second most successful title from a third-party franchise ever on a Nintendo system only behind Tetris. Tetris block for DLC please.

Ryu want: 40%
Eh, he's alright I guess. I don't have much connection to the Street Fighter series, and I think there are two likely outcomes for his moveset. The first one would simply porting his moves from the source games and adapt them to the simpler Smash Bros. control scheme, which I think would be very lame. The other possibility I think would be much more interesting and make Ryu stand out from the entire roster: make his gameplay somewhat similar to how he plays in the Street Fighter series, by giving him special and more complex inputs to most of his moves in order to make him feel more like a character from a traditional fighting game, which would definitely give him a unique niche justified by his origins. Overall I'm pretty neutral about Ryu, due to him having the potential to either stand out a lot or being incredibly lame according to how he'll be handled.

But if there's something I'm certain about, it's that he's at least a much better choice than random third-party nobodies some people are claiming for >_>

Phoenix Wright prediction: 5.70%
Yet another Capcom character who's not a nobody but still not at the level of fame of Mega Man and Ryu... I doubt people are expecting Super Smash Bros. to become Nintendo VS Capcom.

Nominating:
Concept: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo through patching) x10
Thank you Pichu! This makes me want Pichu now

Edit: added 0.01% to my chances score in order to make my "safety margin" (in case if it somehow doesn't happen) exactly equal to Ryu's overall chances score in the original RTC