Concept: Smash 5 Has 10-Year Wait Cycle
Chance - 45%: While my original estimate of 10 seems a little too preposterous, 8-9 years seems more believable. Otherwise, I'm seeing a lot of underestimation of the implications this concept might bring if considered likely.
Please read @
Fuzzy Pickles! eloquently-worded treatise on this matter. Smash 4 has had both installments release in barely half a year at this time. The games are very young and there's tons of time they need in order to flourish. Let's compare the dev cycles of every game in the series:
- Super Smash Bros. to Super Smash Bros. Melee: 3 years (1991-2001)
- Super Smash Bros. Melee to Super Smash Bros. Brawl: 8 years, originally slated to be 6 if it weren't for 2 delays (2001-2008)
- Super Smash Bros. Brawl to Super Smash Bros. for Wii U/3DS: 7 years, but technically 5 because SSB4's production phase began in 2012 (2008-2014)
The average wait between Smash games is 6, development difficulties permitting. The current paradigm allows us to expect this wait period. But I have reason to believe we'll tack on an additional 2-3 for SSB5 for numerous reasons:
1.) The wait has only just begun. SSB3DS is 10 months old and SSBU is 8 months old. They're just barely approaching the 1 year anniversary hallmark at this time. These games have covered all the new content of the last console generation into the beginning of this one, as well as marking off much more of Nintendo's older generational catalogue for representation. Therefore, the content is still fresh as Nintendo's major franchises cycle on.Moreover, DLC is being supported well into the start of 2016, so representing new franchises already has precedent as we've received
Splatoon trophies and Mii Fighter costumes. Also, the game's metagame is fresh and the competitive scene around it has only just established a general conduct towards it. I don't want a Melee-SSB4 schism to result from apathy and community outcry either. For SSB4 to be a true success, it needs to be kept alive at least a little while after SSB5's release. Hopefully it remains as timeless as Melee though.
2.) Newcomer star power is depleting and could need to introduce less newcomers to preserve it. While Smash 4 might as well have the largest hypeworthy roster of all fighting games ever released, it absolutely fails in the desaturation department. Especially since we've got a lot of heavy-hitters initially (Little Mac, Mega Man, Pac-Man, Villager, etc.) with more obscure picks prevalent (Shulk, Bowser Jr., Dark Pit, Wii Fit Trainer, etc.). And don't get me started on DLC! Judging from a quick glimpse of fandom trends and Nintendo's chronicle, there's about 2 more Smash games you could make off the popular characters yet to join the battle. King K. Rool, Isaac, and Ridley are the big ones. Toad, Waluigi, Paper Mario, Krystal, Dixie Kong, Chibi Robo, a
Rhythm Heaven character, an
Advanced Wars character, a
Legend of Zelda newcomer, etc. are highly-requested. Bandana Dee and Isabelle have become key characters to their series. We'll see at least one retro such as Balloon Fighter, Excitebiker, NES Athlete, Bubbles, Tamagon, Prince Sable, Sukapon, Muddy Mole, Urban Champ, etc. Underutilized franchises like
Punch-Out!!, F-Zero, Metroid, etc. could introduce new character with new games with
Star fox Zero having the potential to do so already. The revolving newcomers and legacy characters of
Pokémon and
Fire Emblem are inevitable with
Fates already out the door for the latter. New franchises are being pushed more than ever with games like
Codename S.T.E.A.M., with
Splatoon and even
Xenoblade Chronicles X giving us the "base character model" avatars of Inkling and Cross respectively. There's tons of room left for 3rd parties with Simon Belmont, Slime, a
Final Fantasy character, Rayman, Bomberman, even Banjo-Kazooie being worthy of legend status. As time goes on, franchises from last decade age and last their mark on gaming with Bayonetta, Professor Layton and possibly Jibanyan. SEGA, Capcom, and Bandai-Namco now have free reign of at least another character with more
Sonic and
Mega Man co-stars, another
Street Fighter, Phoenix Wright, Jill Valentine, Monster Hunter, Feylene, Dig-Dug, a
Tales character, Heihachi, etc. Indies seem to be lauded with Shovel Knight, Shantae, Commander Video, Quote, etc. Highly-requested veterans will have been on the shelf long enough for a ceremonious return such as the Ice Climbers, Snake, or Wolf. You could make easy clones out of Toadette, Morgan, Dr. Luigi, Octoling,
Hyrule Warriors Concept Female Link, etc. Another Fighter Ballot may open for the new game to unexpected or emergent picks.
There's more than
enough characters left to make a new game already. But keep that little italicizes keyword in mind:
enough. With Smash 4, a good half of the newcomers have been in the fandom even back to Melee and generated huge praise when they were revealed because it feels like there spot was long-deserved before now. How many of the characters above can you honestly say that for? If I were director, I would take maybe around 5-8 of those characters out of each category, cull some peripheries from the last game and maybe have been straggling along the series, and have the rest of the unrepresented characters and content - recent and classic - left alone for the next game. Lest I use up them too soon, I'll have expended an entire generation's worth of content instead of allowing it to flourish into new forms or even speculate on.
3.) A director shift is highly likely and could take some time securing. With Iwata dead and Sakurai approaching a creative block to the series, you already have one major player gone with both being up in the air. If Sakurai leaves his director position altogether for a supervisor position or even refuses to get involved in SSB5's development, Nintendo would have to find a new director that can resuscitate the then-dormant franchise without making it so different fans will be alienated.
Who exactly would be a good choice to succeed Sakurai? How will their vision impact the series? Hmmm. Yoshíto Higuchi has been credited as SSB4's co-director and has ties with Bandai-Namco (along with making
Tales the next "director baby" franchise like
Kirby or
Kid Icarus!) Producers Shinya Saito and Mayasaya Kobayashi already have the experience of overseeing SSB4's development, yet have unproven portfolios or visionary talents. I suppose it's easy to slap Shigeru Miyamoto's name on anything Nintendo too.
Otherwise, if they
reaaaaally needed a new Smash for the NX, they should pull a Capcom and just release
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: NX Edition or even an extension of the SSB4 series with
Super Smash Bros. for NX. This should have all DLC characters & stages, 3DS & Wii U connectivity, an exclusive mode or two a la Smash Tour/Run, and utilizing whatever the NX's features are. This seems to be something every fighting game franchise eventually goes through and it doesn't necessarily milk the franchise while it's still lactating rather than it does bottle the latest batch. Plus, the sellback rate on the Wii u version would likely subsidize a portion of the dev costs and make margin profit. Also, why not make a spin-off series of Smash instead?
Super Smash Kart? Super Smash Sports Mix? Super Smash Tactics? Super Smash Sisters Extreme Beach Volleyball? There would be accusations of milking, but as long as it doesn't absorb the mainline series like kudzu, having these occasional Nintendo crossover games has a lot of potential.
Want - 87%: Personally, I tend to think in "less is more" than "the more the merrier." Quality over quantity. The more scale or character rosters grow bigger, the more likely you are to oversaturate your game. People will gravitate towards the most effective characters or play one game mode only.
Whilst this isn't inherently a bad thing - as every game does this to some extent, it can lead to a lopsided product if unchecked.
Marvel vs. Capcom 2 and
League of Legends are examples of games with too many characters that the player will give attention to. Hell, if you want to stretch, all 721
Pokémon can't all be caught and I'll never get to live with all
Animal Crossing villagers from Forest/e-Reader+ to New Leaf. With Smash Bros.' crossover value, that's going to be a very sad thing.
Along with the whole 55 characters and counting conundrum, holding back the series for even 10 years would be plenty of time to put the series into a possible 'exogenesis', especially if we get a new director. While an
exogensises is not a reboot per sé, it leaves the expected conventions of the franchise behind whilst keeping the staples, and nuances them to form a new vision for the game. All previous 4 Smash games have a timeless formula, but it stales in many areas and has too many technicalities to truly be appreciated on a whole. We'd have a new way to play Smash, but both styles will be enjoyed by all gamers.
Welp, whoever the new director is, I prefer the talent to be relatively young so they have a fresh slate on legacy (Miyamoto, Aonuma, and Sakurai will all die with their talents someday) and they must hold the core mechanics of the series and Sakurai's standards of quality assurance, whilst giving the game original design touches and mechanics that Sakurai would remain too rigid to conceive. However, Sakurai definitely should be involved as a project supervisor for mentorship and to advise development so it still feels like a genuine Smash game. Like, he would be needed to prevent Goku from breaking down the ungodly 4th-party barrier or so the engine doesn't get overloaded with features or resembles traditional fighting games too closely.
The worst things to result from this would be gamer hysteria of Smash Bros. being dead despite demand and insecure people wanting one to come sooner because they think they'll either grow out of or have too much duty not to spare time to care about it despite wanting it. But with the wait showing the franchise is taking steps to age better and to give us another kickass game, Shigeru Miyamoto's parable could apply here.
"A delayed game eventually is good. A bad game is bad forever."
(Enhanced) SSBU NX Port x3
Iwata Trophy x2
Feel free to tag me back in when those two concepts are following their day.
and Megaman and Duck Hunt, or Pac-Man and Villager...as well as those memorable scenes...the swordsmen's dual between Meta Knight and Marth, ROB's epic reveal, Ridley Slamming Samus to the wall while Pikachu Thunder's the Purple Beast!...Being able to see Nintendo's (SEGA, Capcom and Namco's) finest interact with eachother is something special in of itself...
Sarki Soliloquy
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colder_than_ice
could we have an up-to-date nomination list? Thanks!
