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Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

Smasher 101

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Amaterasu's chances: 0.5%

I doubt we'd get another Capcom character, and I further doubt it'd be her.

Want: 0%

I'm interested in playing Okami, but I'm not interested in her being in Smash. I feel Capcom's current representation is good as is, and I would prefer Phoenix Wright or a Resident Evil character over her anyway.

Daisy's chances: 10%

Of the three main contenders for a potential new Mario DLC character (Captain Toad and Paper Mario being the other two), I think Daisy's the least likely. She does have popularity and would be an easy (semi-)clone, but I don't know if that would be enough to get her in.
Nothing has made me change my mind on her.

Want: 0%

I like Daisy. She's by far my favorite of the three princesses, and would probably make my top ten Mario characters in general. That said, I personally don't particularly want characters like her who are pretty much exclusive to Kart and Party and the like to be playable in Smash. Plus the only Mario character I would want is Captain Toad anyway.
Still that plus I feel that should wouldn't make for an interesting fighter.

Snake re-rerate prediction: 29.18%
Shantae rerate prediction: 6.43%

Nominations: Dixie Kong rerate x5


Decided I'm more interested in that than in the Xenoblade one, which I will resume nominating when Dixie's day comes.
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
Daisy
Chance: 5% - I can't help but feel that she's crafted from the same mold as Waluigi, always the spinoff character, never the star.
Want: 10%

Amaterasu
Chance: 0% - Massively overshadowed by more popular third parties, and third Capcom character to boot.
Want: 90% - Not that I'd be against it mind you.

Nominations: Smash Tour Updates x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
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Messages
1,331
DAISY
CHANCE: 15.76%
WANT: 37.51%

AMATERASU
CHANCE: 2.09%
WANT: 35.26%
Next up we're rerating both Snake and Shantae. Also please predict what score the concepts of us getting more Smash Tour content and Brawl's Pirate Ship stage will get tomorrow.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Solid Snake

Chance: Negligible (Approximately 0%)

Kojima’s leaving Konami soon, and he alongside other employees were apparently treated like absolute garbage. Sakurai may not feel obligated to collaborate with the company that gave his best friend hell.

“But King, Kirby continued to be a series staple even after Sakurai left HAL, so I don’t see a problem.”

Sakurai left HAL because he was tired of making Kirby sequels, not because he was treated very poorly.

Anyway, there’s also Nintendo’s rather iffy relationship with Konami nowadays. They haven’t supported the 3DS since Castlevania: Lords of Shadow – Mirror of Fate in 2013 and they haven’t released anything on Wii U that isn’t a Virtual Console game. Meanwhile, the already represented Capcom, Sega, and Namco continue to support the 3DS, and they at least tried to support the struggling Wii U before giving up.

Lastly, Konami is abandoning the console gaming market in favor mobile games and pachinko machines. The company might not be interested in any of their characters being included in Smash Bros.

Honestly, with everything Snake has going against him, I’m baffled that his average chance score increased the first time we re-rated him.

Want: 50%

Shantae

Chance: 0%

She hails from a lesser third party series with little to no presence in Japan.

Want: 10%

Predictions:

Pirate Ship Stage - 5%

Additional Smash Tour Content - 5%

Nominations: Brash the Friggin' Bear x5
 
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LIQUID12A

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Snake:

Copy pasting from Sylux/Snake's day since I feel nothing has changed. Just lowering my score a bit due to the Konami stuff.

Chance:

Snake:

Chances: 30%---->20%

There’s a pretty clear view of what Sakurai meant by fanservice. Pleasing the fans. You have the fans who want veterans and the fans of potential newcomers. It could reasonably be expected that given the surge of veterans we’ve had brought back, the idea of Snake returning isn’t that unfeasible. There’s the Konami issues and all, but Ryu has shown that third party DLC is a thing. So that’s two points to Snake’s favor. But, given that it is unknown how many characters are planned (and SourceGaming has made it clear to not expect many), there’s a lot of factors up in the air.
Want:

Want: 100%

Snake’s absence was what hurt me the most in the transition from Brawl to 3DS/U. The first third-party character in Smash (stop saying Sonic is tied for that because he’s not by reveal date alone and was added to Brawl late in development) gets cast aside? Didn’t sit well with me, even if I understood why.

I want Snake back.
Shantae

Oh boy. My stance is solid on this one, so nobody debate me, please.

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Shantae saw a boost of popularity due to the Ballot becoming a thing, and parent studio WayForward has followed suit. You would say she has everything: relevancy both as a series and on Nintendo consoles, she's workable to Smash and has a fanbase.

That's where the good parts end.

Shantae's biggest obstacle is being indie. Like it or not, that also means being third-party. Third parties as is have some very stiff competition right now between each other, but for an indie character to be considered over the likes of Snake, Rayman, hell, even guys like Klonoa and the multitude of possible SEGA reps, it's just so baffling. She may have a small fanbase in Japan and her next game is soon to come, but it can't compare to the third parties listed above.

Now let me tell you something. I was neutral to Shantae for a long time. But with everything that's happened, mainly that false hype tweet from WayForward("see you in Smash", what pinhead thought that was a good idea) and that IMDB incident where an overzealous fan edited her VA's name into Smash U's voice cast for no apparent reason has soured me to her and her fanbase. Here's one third party I legitimately don't want in Smash at all. Save her for an indie clone of Smash or something where she would belong more.

Predictions:

Smash Tour content: 4%
Pirate Ship: 7%

Nominate: Frigate Orpheon x5
 
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Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,990
DAISY
CHANCE: 15.76%
WANT: 37.51%

AMATERASU
CHANCE: 2.09%
WANT: 35.26%
Next up we're rerating both Snake and Shantae. Also please predict what score the concepts of us getting more Smash Tour content and Brawl's Pirate Ship stage will get tomorrow.
Wow, with Daisy we now have two characters that has Re-Rates with a general drop in Chance and Want Rates (the other one is Micaiah). The other characters has a chance drop with a want buff (Wolf, K. Rool, Ice Climberrs, Inkling), or a general buff (Snake, Rayman, Bandana Dee also does this?).
 
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CometX-ing

Smash Apprentice
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
198
Shantae

Chance: 40%

She as an indie by no means has a very good chance, we have only ever seen 1 indie character in the form of a trophy, but with the ballot and quite a large following I feel she her chances are there. She also has history with Nintendo so that helps as well.

Want: 100%

I voted for her and would be hyped as all hell if she got in, her games are highly enjoyable and she could have a very unique moveset with all of the weapons and powers she gets through out her series. She wasn't my first vote but still I'd love for her inclusion, and being an indie icon she could be a perfect rep for the Nindies.

Snake

Chance: 30%

I know that anyone who reads this will probably think me insane, "Snake has less of a chance than Shantae, are you high?!?!", but allow me to give my reason. Snake's inclusion in Brawl was a favor to Kojima, Kojima is no longer with Konami so that already drops his chances. Now with all the bad press Konami is getting and over all negative reaction to their decision, most notable basically leaving gaming behind, I doubt Sakurai or Nintendo would want the association with Konami at all. Honestly the only reason I say his chances are even 30% is cause he's a veteran, really I'd say his chances are like 20-10%.

Want: 20%

I didn't use Snake is Brawl all that much and honestly wouldn't miss him, I'd rather have another Newcomer than him, also the way Konami has been acting about Kojima honestly doesn't really make me think they deserve any reps.

Predictions

Smash Tour Content: 20%

Pirate Ship Stage: 30%

NiGHTS x5
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,779
Solid Snake

Chance - 2.5% - Honestly might have overrated the guy originally. Go figure. Konami's going away from the console market, Kojima's departing, and little is left of the former company. Considering the main reason he got in was a favor of a friend, I don't think it's likely at all.

Want - 65% - Okay, maybe have underrating his want a bit. If we have to let him go, so be it, but I still would like him in.


Another Copy-paste

Shantae

Chance - 0.05% - A snowball's chance in Sequin Land. Being indie and therefore not quite as notable as some of the third parties makes me think she'll be avoided for now.

Want - 95% - That said, she's probably my most wanted third party at the moment. The concept of a character with a small variety of drastic yet watered down transformations really just appeals to me.

In addition to what I said last time, I'll just say that I don't care about the iconic status too much. So long as they're fun to play and offer something clearly unique and entertaining on every level, who cares? I'd trade Pac-Man and Ryu for her any day.


Predictions

Smash Tour updates - 3.45% - Might be a thing, but you'd think they'd do something like this sooner.

Pirate Ship - 4.56% - A somewhat popular stage that isn't back, and should have no problems coming around.


Nominations

Fossil Fighters T-Rex X5
 

KimKarsmashian

Smash Journeyman
Joined
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Messages
495
Snake:
I agree with @ LIQUID12A LIQUID12A 's reasoning, but I'd put chance at 25%.
Want: 100%.

Shantae:
Chance: 2% She's not an iconic 3rd party, she's not even an iconic indie character.
Want: 25% I mean, I don't dislike her. If she got in and she was fun to play, cool. But I can't say I really want her.
 

Tino

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And you fail to see the logic in that statement.

EDIT:

Solid Snake:

Chance: 30% - I'm pretty torn about his chances considering all that crazy **** that has been happening recently with Konami.
Want: 100%- Well he was one of my mains in Brawl and his inclusion in that game was what got me interested in the Metal Gear Solid games so of course I would love to see him back. I'm willing to drop Ike and Falco just to main him again.

Shantae:

Chance: 20% - Not sure how I feel about seeing a indie 3rd party character in Smash.
Want: 5% - Never played her games before but I definitely would not use her at all if she were to make the cut.
 
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Scoliosis Jones

Kept you waiting, huh?
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While I personally think this thread serves no purpose (besides users fanboying over this or that reason for their character to be considered "likely" by everybody, I'll comment)

Snake:

Chance: Eh...Probably less than 50% but i'll go 50/50

Want: 100% (my main in Brawl, one of the most unique characters to Smash evar)

So here's the skinny. Konami wants the guy in Smash. The fans want the guy in Smash. He's a unique character. He's a high profile 3rd party.

Yes, Konami is open to him in Smash. They've favorited and retweeted tweets from different users on the site in regards to Snake as DLC. There's also those rumors that Namco could be on the receiving end of MGS as a franchise. Basically, if Sakurai/Nintendo come to a deal with Konami, it'll happen. If Mashpotato Samurai decides not to bring him back (despite him thinking he was a great character) then he doesn't come back. That's all there is to it for me. Although, at the end of the day, Snake was a huge topic of Smashcon because most people saw him in Brawl and said, "Wow. I'm sad Snake's gone. Too bad he had to get cut". So it's not like there's nothing to lose with Snake getting tossed to the side.

I want him 100% because after playing as Snake in Brawl, I grew to love the character. Playing as Snake led me to play MGS as a series. It's become one of my favorites. Snake has one of the most unique playstyles to ever grace Super Smash Bros., and he's one of the most unique characters because of the circumstances, period.

Shantae:

Chance: Like 10%, but probably way less. She's an indie character, and she really doesn't match Sakurai's criteria for 3rd parties. Her Genoesque rise in popularity isn't going to just bypass every other reason to include a character from another company.

Want: 0%. I've seen pretty much no reason to want her in the game tbh lol. No offense to anybody but I really dont see the appeal. Especially when, 3rd Partywise, i'd much rather have Snake, Rayman or Bomberman.
 

Yellowlord

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Who knows? :3
Solid Snake

Chance- 5%- To be completely and entirely honest, I have my doubts on Snake returning, mainly due to Konami having issues lately and the fact that Kojima left the company made it even worse. I do truly doubt he's going to return, I'm afraid to say.

Want- 10%- Although he is not a desired character to me all that much, I suppose he was unique in some form with his moveset, but that's the only reason why I am even giving him 10%.

Shantae

Chance- 50%- To me, she has a 50-50 chance of getting in. She's got plenty of history with Nintendo, all her games have been entirely Nintendo exclusive (not counting any of her games being on Steam, for example), and although she may be an indie/third party, her popularity has risen as of late to great amounts, which in some form can put her up there with the other third party characters.

Want- 100%- She is currently my Number 1 wanted character for the Ballot, and I also placed in my vote for her, so I really want to see her get into Smash. She has so much variety and potential.

Predictions

Smash Tour updates- 1%- Right now, it's unlikely; Sakurai is mostly focusing on characters and stages right now due to the ballot.

Pirate Ship- 10%- If we get a Zelda newcomer or something, this could maybe come back as a set with the Newcomer. But I am relatively uncertain if that will happen.

Nominations

Fountain of Dreams x5
 
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Zajice

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Snake

I missed the re-rate of Snake, but I still have my post from the first rating, which I still think is relevant.
I'm far more optimistic than the majority of people in this thread.


Snake's chance: 90%
Yes, I genuinely believe it's that high. Veteran status is a HUGE boost to his chances. Once a character is in Smash, they're in it for good. The demand for veterans is almost always higher than the demand for newcomers, because it's something people had and loved that was taken away. Just look at everyone's reaction to Mewtwo. I've seen more hype for the return of Lucas than most Smash 4 newcomers. And why wouldn't Nintendo capitalize on this? Re-tuning a pre-existing veteran is significantly less work than making a character from scratch, but they can charge the same price and make a huge number of fans happy.

You can argue how much Snake "belongs" in Smash all you want, but it's already been proven that he can be in Smash, because he already has been. The only thing possibly stopping him is his third party status, and really, that's a rather flimsy barrier on it's own. There are three third parties in the game already, one likely on the horizon, and again, Snake's already been in. That's a lot of proof that getting permission to add him back in is not hard in the slightest. Kojima himself has expressed interest in Snake's return. Konami is on board as well with their faves and retweets on twitter on the subject.

I have no reason to believe the rumors regarding Kojima and Konami's relationship should have any effect on this. What's the thought process? Konami doesn't like Kojima anymore, so just to spite him, they decide not to allow Snake in Smash 4? What's the benefit in doing that? None. They only serve to benefit from Snake's inclusion, so long as the rights to the character are sorted out for copyright reasons. Or on the other side, Kojima hates Konami now, so that immediately means he hates Metal Gear? Does he really have any reason to be so cynical that he'd personally request Sakurai not to put Snake in, just because he no longer works for the company he made MGS for? That's ridiculous. Kojima would be delighted to see Snake in Smash 4. It's silly to assume this fiasco matters at all for Smash.

Then there's the flimsy "no MGS5 on Wii U" excuse. So what? Snake joins the Smash 4 roster, therefore, Nintendo loses a bunch of money because people want to buy MGS5, a series that competes with nothing on Nintendo's lineup? Nintendo does not lose anything by adding Snake. They only serve to gain. DLC costs money. They get money from people buying the Snake DLC. Also MGS5 gets some promotion I guess, which effects Nintendo in no way at all. It's not like MGS is a stranger to Nintendo consoles anyway.

You could argue that all these points can apply to any 3rd party character, so Nintendo should just go crazy and add everyone from every series from every company. That argument would be silly though. 3rd parties are chosen because they're big enough characters to deserve it. They need to have proven themselves a worthy addition. What's the one 3rd party character not in Smash 4 that has already 100% undeniably proven themselves worthy of being in Smash? Snake, by being in Brawl. That's what makes all these points so much more relevant. If Snake was never in Smash to begin with, all the reasons people give out for why he shouldn't be in would be much more valid, same with any other 3rd party request.

tl;dr
Snake's veteran status is everything. He's already proven his place. Snake is easy to implement, meaning easy money, and an easy option to make fans happy. Nintendo has nothing to lose, and there are no logical barriers stopping Nintendo from adding him back in again. Only thing stopping me from saying 100% is that 10% chance that Nintendo is dumb enough to make the wrong move.


How much I want Snake: 100%
MGS is my favorite series. Snake is my favorite character in Brawl. That's all there is to it.
Chance: 95% (From my previous 90%.)
Want: Still 100%

The most notable thing to consider now is that recently Konami has licensed their Hudson IPs to Nintendo. What's that? Konami giving Nintendo permission to use their IPs to make console video games? Holy ****, it's almost like that's exactly what's needed to get Snake as DLC, and it's happening!

On top of that, Snake has been shown by a lot of polls to be among the top most desired characters for DLC.

This poll that pulls various larger polls together actually ranks Snake at the very top of the list. The online polls may not be 100% accurate, but regardless, it still proves that Snake is at least very highly requested by those following the ballot.
Recently on the Smash Facebook page, they asked who people have been voting for. Snake is at the very top of the comment section, with over 1000 likes and is only surpassed in likes by the le epic funny joke wiimote safety guy because Facebook is full of filthy memers.

Sakurai has stated that all DLC from here on out is for the fans, and the fans are making it very clear that they want Snake.

The arguments that blame Konami for making it impossible are still outrageous, now-so more than ever with the Hudson development. Konami has no reason not to license Snake for Smash DLC, as it does nothing but benefit them. Kojima has no reason to not want Snake in Smash. He doesn't hate the series because he's leaving the company he worked on it for. Sakurai isn't shallow enough to not include Snake solely on a baseless grudge against Konami for being jerks to Kojima at the expense of all the Smash and MGS fans that want Snake. And just because a company shifts focus doesn't mean they pretend their past works don't exist at all. It's completely ridiculous to assume they'll just forget they ever made MGS and refuse that it ever be used for anything ever again ever. Konami is perfectly capable of making their silly Pachinko machines while Nintendo makes them free money with Smash DLC.

It's like people completely forgot that Capcom has been just as ****ty of a company if not more-so than Konami, yet they got Megaman and Ryu in Smash. Doing business one way doesn't stop a company from doing business another way. And from a pure business standpoint, not including Snake is dumb.

Seriously, anyone that comes in this thread and says "probably not, because of issues with Konami" better explain how exactly, with good reason, those issues negatively effect Snake's chances other than just saying "because there's just issues, and issues are bad."

- - - - - - - - - -

Shantae

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

I have little faith in Shantae. People have compared her situation to Geno back in Brawl. A somewhat random 3rd party with a huge amount of vocal support for some reason. Yet if she never made it into 4, by the time 5 rolls around, her support will have likely very much dwindled. (I say if she never makes it, because if she does, she'll have demand in 5 based purely on vet status.) Geno this time around has lost a lot of support from the early days of Brawl.

If this were before the ballot, I'd have her at a 0%, but with the amount of support she gets, you never know. She might get lucky. Personally, I remain in the belief that if any indie character should ever get in Smash, it should be Quote from Cave Story for basically being the pioneer of indie games and their ability to not suck complete pretentious ***. Anything else can come after.

I think 3rd parties need to be important and iconic to gaming or Nintendo as a whole. Every third party so far has been a HUGE character in the industry. Shantae is dust in the wind compared to every other 3rd party Smash has seen.

All that said, her inclusion would not upset me, but I simply have no interest in her to care if she did get in. I find a plethora of other characters more appealing and more deserving.
 
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Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,990
I'm really surprised with the some high scores that Shantae... Seriously... I know that some people really loves her... But they don't remember some important things

- She is a Third Party... Worse... She is as Indie Character
- She is a niche character... actually... before her 3DS game(that is recent) and the Kickstarter she was actually obscure with mostly cult fanbase.
- Niche Character... that only has one game (I'm almost sure) in Japan... Be a Western-Only is a COMPLETELY different deal that be a Japan-Only in a japanese game.
- Her series has 13 years old... But with her relativality obscure popularity before looks like she only has a few years with the DSiWare, 3DS games and the Kickstarter.
- Also, her best niche gimmick (transformations)... Is something actually used A LOT OF TIMES against OTHER characters in their rates.

This doesn't make sense.

... I need to search my old vote for do my new one.
 
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Yomi's Biggest Fan

See You Next Year, Baby
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Shantae

Chance: 15%

With her large following in the ballot and status as a well loved indie character, Shantae's been kicking well in chances. But the only problem is her nonexistent following in Japan in addition to her limited releases there. Only time will tell if Sakurai will think about giving indies more than just a trophy like CommanderVideo.

Want: 100%

A genie that transforms into anything possible and whip her hair back and forth is cool in a my book. And I wholeheartedly agree with WayForward on how Shantae would be a great fit in Smash with her magic abilities.

Snake
Chance: 15%

Oh Konami, how the mighty has fallen. Turns from a video game legend into a joke that appeals to the average low lie gamblers.

At best, Snake's chances of returning are extremely iffy now that his original creator had left the company and Konami is simply turning away from video games altogether in the future. At least Sanke's support is still going strong in the ballot as a sign that many want him to return. But the circumstances with his company and the status of Kojima's departure makes the possibility of Snake returning seem hopeless at best.

Want: 80%

I just want that skin tight suit wearing, mortar shooting, bomb planting, helicopter bombing, lackey strangling, badass agent back! :cry:

Smash Tour Content: 14%

Pirate Ship Stage: 24%
Mini-Kangaroo x5
 

CometX-ing

Smash Apprentice
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
198
I missed the re-rate of Snake, but I still have my post from the first rating, which I still think is relevant.


Chance: 95% (From my previous 90%.)
Want: Still 100%

The most notable thing to note is that recently Konami has licensed their Hudson IPs to Nintendo. What's that? Konami giving Nintendo permission to use their IPs to make console video games? Holy ****, it's almost like that's exactly what's needed to get Snake as DLC, and it's happening!

On top of that, Snake has been shown by a lot of polls to be among the top most desired characters for DLC.

This poll that pulls various larger polls together actually ranks Snake at the very top of the list. The online polls may not be 100% accurate, but regardless, it still proves that Snake is at least very highly requested by those following the ballot.
Recently on the Smash Facebook page, they asked who people have been voting for. Snake is at the very top of the comment section, with over 1000 likes and is only surpassed in likes by the le epic funny joke wiimote safety guy because Facebook is full of filthy memers.

Sakurai has stated that all DLC from here on out is for the fans, and the fans are making it very clear that they want Snake.

The arguments that blame Konami for making it impossible are still outrageous, now-so more than ever with the Hudson development. Konami has no reason not to license Snake for Smash DLC, as it does nothing but benefit them. Kojima has no reason to not want Snake in Smash. He doesn't hate the series because he's leaving the company he worked on it for. Sakurai isn't shallow enough to not include Snake solely on a baseless grudge against Konami for being jerks to Kojima at the expense of all the Smash and MGS fans that want Snake. And just because a company shifts focus doesn't mean they pretend their past works don't exist at all. It's completely ridiculous to assume they'll just forget they ever made MGS and refuse that it ever be used for anything ever again ever. Konami is perfectly capable of making their silly Pachinko machines while Nintendo makes them free money with Smash DLC.

It's like people completely forgot that Capcom has been just as ****ty of a company if not more-so than Konami, yet they got Megaman and Ryu in Smash. Doing business one way doesn't stop a company from doing business another way. And from a pure business standpoint, not including Snake is dumb.

Seriously, anyone that comes in this thread and says "probably not, because of issues with Konami" better explain how exactly, with good reason, those issues negatively effect Snake's chances other than just saying "because they're just issues."
http://gamerant.com/konami-work-environment-report-129/

With this kind of treatment of their workers, I doubt Nintendo would want to associate with Konami.
 

Chandeelure

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-Snake:
Chances: 20%
Want: 50%

-Shantae:
Chances: 5%
Want: 15%

-Nominations:
Rerate Dixie Kong X5

And you fail to see the logic in that statement.
You insulted a character for no reason, I said you are salty.
Is not that hard to understand, lol.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Solid Snake:
Chance:15%

@KingBro1 sums up my thoughts on the matter:
Kojima’s leaving Konami soon, and he alongside other employees were apparently treated like absolute garbage. Sakurai may not feel obligated to collaborate with the company that gave his best friend hell.

“But King, Kirby continued to be a series staple even after Sakurai left HAL, so I don’t see a problem.”

Sakurai left HAL because he was tired of making Kirby sequels, not because he was treated very poorly.

Anyway, there’s also Nintendo’s rather iffy relationship with Konami nowadays. They haven’t supported the 3DS since Castlevania: Lords of Shadow – Mirror of Fate in 2013 and they haven’t released anything on Wii U that isn’t a Virtual Console game. Meanwhile, the already represented Capcom, Sega, and Namco continue to support the 3DS, and they at least tried to support the struggling Wii U before giving up.

Lastly, Konami is abandoning the console gaming market in favor mobile games and pachinko machines. The company might not be interested in any of their characters being included in Smash Bros.

Honestly, with everything Snake has going against him, I’m baffled that his average chance score increased the first time we re-rated him.
Good job man :).
I only give a 15% because i feel generous today.

Want:50%
I like Snake, but my soul belongs to Simon Belmont.


Shantae:
Chance:1%

@ LIQUID12A LIQUID12A sums up my thoughts as well:
Oh boy. My stance is solid on this one, so nobody debate me, please.

Shantae saw a boost of popularity due to the Ballot becoming a thing, and parent studio WayForward has followed suit. You would say she has everything: relevancy both as a series and on Nintendo consoles, she's workable to Smash and has a fanbase.

That's where the good parts end.

Shantae's biggest obstacle is being indie. Like it or not, that also means being third-party. Third parties as is have some very stiff competition right now between each other, but for an indie character to be considered over the likes of Snake, Rayman, hell, even guys like Klonoa and the multitude of possible SEGA reps, it's just so baffling. She may have a small fanbase in Japan and her next game is soon to come, but it can't compare to the third parties listed above.

Now let me tell you something. I was neutral to Shantae for a long time. But with everything that's happened, mainly that false hype tweet from WayForward("see you in Smash", what pinhead thought that was a good idea) and that IMDB incident where an overzealous fan edited her VA's name into Smash U's voice cast for no apparent reason has soured me to her and her fanbase. Here's one third party I legitimately don't want in Smash at all. Save her for an indie clone of Smash or something where she would belong more.
I gave her a 1% because i feel more pessmistic and cynical about her chances.

Want:5%
She's cool, but i prefer if 3rd party were more, you know, more "Legendary".


Yes, She has moveset potential, but i will quote @StormC on this one:
There's rhyme and reason to the roster besides just having fun movesets. We could put in my 90 year old grandma otherwise.
I know i sound harsh, but that's what i think.
 
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Tino

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You insulted a character for no reason, I said you are salty.
Is not that hard to understand, lol.
No, stating how I feel about a character isn't considered an insult, but rather my personal opinion on that character.
You don't understand a single thing if you're gonna make such a big deal about it.
 

Troykv

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Shantae:

Old Chance Rate:

Chance 15%

Her biggest problem is she doesn't well known outside their country of origin. She still has potential things in my opinion.
... Now I'm seeing better the absurdly problems that has this character with her chances to be in Smash... I will quote my other post to explain better:

I'm really surprised with the some high scores that Shantae... Seriously... I know that some people really loves her... But they don't remember some important things

- She is a Third Party... Worse... She is as Indie Character
- She is a niche character... actually... before her 3DS game(that is recent) and the Kickstarter she was actually obscure with mostly cult fanbase.
- Niche Character... that only has one game (I'm almost sure) in Japan... Be a Western-Only is a COMPLETELY different deal that be a Japan-Only in a japanese game.
- Her series has 13 years old... But with her relativality obscure popularity before looks like she only has a few years with the DSiWare, 3DS games and the Kickstarter.
- Also, her best niche gimmick (transformations)... Is something actually used A LOT OF TIMES against OTHER characters in their rates.

This doesn't make sense.
New Chance Rate: 0.1%

The only reason why I give her a 0.1% is for her fanbase... I'm in a bad mood with this. View as a character who is voted with good scores just for the hype that Wayforward created, which is being voted even better than characters that actually belong to Nintendo... I find it more and more absurd the more I think. It's frustrating.

Old Want: 70%

Looks very interesting and fun to use in my opinion.
New Want Rate: Abstain

I don't have any strong feelings with this character. But some things make me have a mixed opinion about her presences in Smash. I don't hate the character... But... I don't feel good watching this. This is... This is weird!

Now is Snake's turn... Again.

Chance: Abstain

Want: 75%

He is a awesome character and his play style is great.

Predictions:

Pirate Ship Stage: 10.2%
New Smash Tour Content: 3.4%

Nominations:

Rerate! Shovel Knight x4
Ballot Runner-up for Smash 5 x1

Edit: Updated. Now I put Snake's rates.
 
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PrettyIvyPearls22

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Wow, I'm surprised that people are even rating Shantae high only because of rumors I feel even more pessmistic and cynical about her chances. Like seriously 50%? I don't think she even passes the 10% mark. People seem to forget most of her obstacles and only stick with the good things there negative things to about when it comes to characters too.
 

Oasis Dealer

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Well...looks like we're rating Snake and Shantae again. This is going to be interesting.

Snake
Chance: 65%

Yeah, I've gone up in my chances. I've always been even with Snake, though this time, I think Snake is getting better chances. First, I would like to ask as to why Konami having problems has ANYTHING to do with Snake's chances. Yes, the company is focusing more on mobile devices. However, they then said they will still have a place in the console market. Konami is also allowing Nintendo to use a Hudson Soft IP, meaning Nintendo still thinks it's at least worth it to negotiate with Konami. Kojima leaving the company won't have an effect either. It's not like Sakurai won't choose him just because his friend left the company. He's going to choose him if he feels like it's worth it to bring Snake back due to support, and what he brings to Smash. Hell, besides Konami, the other companies, minus Namco, have had troubles or are still having problems. Everyone had problems with Capcom and thought Megaman would never get in. Sega is moving more focus on PC and mobile devices, and people will say Sonic is still in shambles. Konami is no different, and I want Snake back because of his franchise, NOT because of the company.

Want: 100%

As the last two times, Snake is STILL my most wanted character for Smash. His franchise is really special, and combined with how he has history with Nintendo, I think he's still big enough to get in.

Shantae
Chance: 15%

She could represent loyal Nintendo indie games, but I'm not sure if that's enough. Her support MIGHT be enough, but depending on Sakurao's criteria for 3rd parties, I don't think she has the best shot.

Want: 40%
I don't care for Shantae, but I think it would be cool to see her. Been meaning to get into the franchise as well.
 
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Chandeelure

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No, stating how I feel about a character isn't considered an insult, but rather my personal opinion on that character.
You don't understand a single thing if you're gonna make such a big deal about it.
Hmm I'm pretty sure that ***** is an insult, it doesn't matter if it's your opinion or not, lol.
Your logic makes no sense.
Wow, I'm surprised that people are even rating Shantae high only because of rumors I feel even more pessmistic and cynical about her chances. Like seriously 50%? I don't think she even passes the 10% mark. People seem to forget most of her obstacles and only stick with the good things there negative things to about when it comes to characters too.
Bias.
 
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Rockaphin

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Snake:

Chance: 40%
Want: 2%

Shantae:

Chance: ABSTAIN
Want: 25%

Nominations:
Paper Mario Theatre Stage x5
 

Zajice

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http://gamerant.com/konami-work-environment-report-129/

With this kind of treatment of their workers, I doubt Nintendo would want to associate with Konami.
Except they literally just associated with Konami by getting a license to use their Hudson IPs, which is the first thing I brought up in my post. So basing Snake's chances on a possible moral dilemma with little ground to stand on isn't very accurate.
 

Yellowlord

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Wow, I'm surprised that people are even rating Shantae high only because of rumors I feel even more pessmistic and cynical about her chances. Like seriously 50%? I don't think she even passes the 10% mark. People seem to forget most of her obstacles and only stick with the good things there negative things to about when it comes to characters too.
It's just my personal opinion. If it helps, I doubt she'd ever go past 50% in my eyes. It's a 50-50 chance.
 
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Flavius

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Snake

Chance: 40%

He is highly requested and it would be fairly easy to port him over from brawl. However, with all the stuff happening with Konami and Kojima along with other characters having stronger followings, this is pulling back on him making a return.

Want: 50%

I'm really indifferent whether Snake makes it back or not. He was never my favorite character to play as and most likely would just sit there with the other characters I don't ever play. His moveset is unique enough however and he wouldn't take too much time away from other characters because most of his data can be ported over.

Shantae

Chance: 5%

Waluigi and Ridley have proven the fact that no matter how popular the character is, doesn't mean that character is an automatic guarantee. Shantae has many things going against her. She's third party, she's indie meaning she's not well known, and she's just not as iconic as the other third parties for Sakurai to feel she's important enough.

Want: 20%

While she seems cool, I feel to make it as a third party character, you have to be special and Shantae just isn't. I prefer her the most out of all the indie choices, but I feel indie third party characters are just not justified enough to make it. Sorry.
 

CometX-ing

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Except they literally just associated with Konami by getting a license to use their Hudson IPs, which is the first thing I brought up in my post. So basing Snake's chances on a possible moral dilemma with little ground to stand on isn't very accurate.
Except this licensing deal could very well have been in talks for a while, long before the news of their working conditions got out. The earliest articles on both stories place them on the same day but its safe to assume the licensing deal wasn't just something they came up with that day, where as the stories about the working conditions at Konami was obviously breaking news. Nintendo could easily license the IP's and leave it at that.
 

Mikegamer0608

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Snake

Chance: 50%
Snake's chances is high for being a veteran, but because of Konami's situation right now his chances have been lowered.

Want: 75%
I would like to see him back, I enjoyed his presence in Brawl and I enjoy his character in general.

Shantae

Chance: 45%
Ho boy, here we go. I've been a Shantae supporter since the beginning of the Shantae thread and since then I been looking high and low throughout the internet from Youtube, Reddit, Twitter, Gamefaqs, etc watching lots of videos and reading articles of social media about Shantae and I've seen a lot of Love and Support for the character ever since Wayforward's campaign started and Wayforward is even willing to work with Nintendo if they ever choose her for Smash, but I've also seen plenty of Negativity towards her too from being Obscure, being Indie or Third Party (I've been seeing this ballot as a Suggestion box so this honestly doesn't hurt her when any video game character can be chosen). Shantae games has been with Nintendo for 13 years now and Wayforward continues to stay loyal to the company by putting her games mainly on Nintendo Platforms so they can please their Nintendo fans that started her franchise, but also as of late her games have been ported to Playstation and Steam to farther her series sells on other platforms. I've also found Cult Support over in Japan who want Shantae games to be localized over there, which is actually in the process now by the company intergrow working with Wayforward by starting with Shantae: Risky's Revenge Director's Cut on 3DS & possibly Wii U version coming their way since Wayforward plans to release the Director's cut version on 3DS & Wii U in the States (Q3 2015). Also japanese developers & artists enjoy her series from Ken Sugimori (Pokemon Art Director), Ko Takeuchi (Rhythm Heaven artist), etc. Her games is also played worldwide on Steam so she does get exposure from the PC Version. Now with all this saying I'm keeping my expectations low, but I do see her chances being there from all the Social Media exposure be it Wayforward's Campaign start, Matt Bozon's "See you in Smash" Tweet to the Edited IMDb voice actor in Smash articles. And so I leave it at that and I'll be continuing to research through different sites to find support outside of the States & Europe.

Want: 100%
Ever since I first bought her game back in 2003 I enjoyed and tresaured the value of Shantae's series knowing there was only a small Cult following of her series. I definitely want to see Shantae enter into the Smash Bros Franchise be it through Smash 4 DLC or Saved as a consideration for Smash 5 from the ballot itself. And if she doesn't get at all I still have my Pre-Smash 4 characters :4megaman::4shulk::4palutena:&:4ryu:who I thought never could get in.
 
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Champ Gold

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Alright we got something big here

Shantae

Chance: 11%
This is the highest I can give any indie character for a shot at Smash. Most don't have that staying power, Icon status or notoriety in Japan and Shantae in no exception to this issue.

Want: 35%
She's the only indie character I will actively push for aside from Quote but at this moment I feel like she'll be a Mii Fighter Costume

:snake:
Chance: ???
Why did I go for the question marks, simple. It's hard to judge his chances from how Konami has been regarding video games in general and Kojima is the main reason for Snake getting in. However, IMO Nintendo doesn't care about that and considering how people were calling the chances of :4megaman: getting in were slim to none to his situation in 2011-2013 but got in regardless.

As for now we can't truly judge the situation as much

Want: 100%
Veteran
check

Original moveset
check

Third Party Character with an icon status and with a major footing in gaming
YOU BETTER BELIEVE IT

No veteran as fun as him should be cut plus with him with :4pacman::4megaman::4ryu::snake::4sonic: just looks perfect

Predictions
Pirate Ship: 40%
Smash Tour Content: 3%

Nominations
Starman x5
Isa x5
Dixie Kong
 

Mikegamer0608

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Wow, I'm surprised that people are even rating Shantae high only because of rumors I feel even more pessmistic and cynical about her chances. Like seriously 50%? I don't think she even passes the 10% mark. People seem to forget most of her obstacles and only stick with the good things there negative things to about when it comes to characters too.
Definitely sensing a little bias here.
 
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Zajice

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Except this licensing deal could very well have been in talks for a while, long before the news of their working conditions got out. The earliest articles on both stories place them on the same day but its safe to assume the licensing deal wasn't just something they came up with that day, where as the stories about the working conditions at Konami was obviously breaking news. Nintendo could easily license the IP's and leave it at that.
That's just cherrypicking to construe the situation into something that works against Snake. Suppose Nintendo doesn't wanna associate with Konami for being bad employers, and the licensing talks came before that news came to light as you say. Why continue to go ahead using Konami IPs if news came to light that Konami is so horrible? Why wouldn't Nintendo drop out of this deal if such a thing mattered to them so much? Why would they purposely continue with this deal, but not with Snake (who for all we know, could've also been talked about licensing around the same time)?

And that's all assuming they even have this moral dilemma to begin with. Two major corporations don't have much reason to care how the other internally operates.
 

War Anvil

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SNAKE
Chance: 5%
Want: 50%
Poor, poor Kojima. Poor, poor Snake. Because of Konami's apparent tyranny, Snake has gone through the unpopular fact that his work has taken a serious nuke. That, and he's from a largely mature-audience franchise, but I digress. Either way, little nuances both good and bad have diminished Snake's chances compared with other Konami newcomers - like Bomberman (Maybe due to the new Hudson IP license), Simon Belmont, or even Twinbee (Where's my SHMUP rep?!
).
As for my wants? I don't exactly care as much about Metal Gear as much as my dad used to that one time, but I'd love to see Snake's unique playstyle transition from the realistic Brawl to the more colorful Sm4sh.

SHANTAE
Chance: 35%
Want: 100%
Holy frick, this is *********lockes to tackle right now. On one hand, those hypebeast "leaks" pertaining Shantae (Such as the whole "ShanTaunt" fiasco) really need to stop, as they all give false hope to us half-genie lovers. On the other hand, there's been a bit of an upsurge in support, such as WarioWare and Rhythm Heaven character designer Ko Takeuchi pitching in with his own fanart of Shantae and Ken Sugimori's (The one true Pokémon character designer!) fondness for Pirate's Curse. Oh, and right - Crusade just included her as a fighter, so at least that's something tangible for the long run.

In my eyes, Shantae has a bit more of a chance to actually get in, but not by much; just deal with it and keep supporting her. Did I mention that I'm still strongly in favor of Shantae joining? Because I am. :4pacman:

PREDICTLY TO YOU
Pirate Ship: 0.5%
Smash Tour Content: 0.5%
Nah, I'm cool. As for Smash Tour, don't break what can be fixed.

WHAT DO I HOPE IS NEXT?
Misty x5
If not for the 3DS version, I would have only wanted Misty - just to have my one true waifu~
 
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Geno Boost

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Star Hill. Why do you ask?
Snake chances 50%
he is the most liley 3rd party because he is a vetran and he is being voted alot in the ballout i think, and he is a huge 3rd party character but Bomberman would be the best choice for Konami rep.

want 40%
Bomberman first i also rather see some other 3rd party before him.

Shantae chances 3%
i was going to give her 1% but sometimes she gets alot of rumors, she is not the best choice for 3rd party rep and have way alot of problems and there are way more deserving 3rd party characters.

want 0%
i have 1 big problem about her, she is too "showy"

nomination:
Nester x5
 

Tikivoy

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This must be fate. My most wanted third parties on the same day…it's actually inspired me to get to revamping my sig.

Snake:

Chance: 70%.
+He’s a veteran. In case :4lucas::4feroy: haven’t made the obvious clear already, the series never forgets its veteran characters. Snake already has a moveset ready if they decide to bring him back, and a clear fanbase that would buy him due to his inclusion in Brawl.

+ Nintendo and Hudson deal. While it has nothing to do with Snake, it shows Konami is willing to do deals with Nintendo. Snake getting in the first time did not just involve Kojima alone, "We needed the cooperation of both Nintendo and Konami, and the approval of other people involved in order to make it happen."
+Console war issues…are proven non-existent thanks to :4ryu:

+The remaining dlc is fanservice. Kojima is a fan. Snake’s inclusion in Brawl represents Sakurai listening to his fans :troll:

??? Popular Ballot support? I’ve only heard this, though I’m sure there’s no way of proving this. Regardless, it goes without saying the ballot will help him tremendously if bringing him back is something their thinking about.

- Third Party.

- Konami problems. Though I have to admit they're heavily exaggerated It’s clear however, Sakurai can’t rely on Kojima for a return, a shame since Kojima’s shown interest in Snake returning. But I point to the above mentioned Hudson deal and quote.

- Clearly Sakurai knows he won’t fit next to the other realistic human characters :troll:

Want: 100%.

Snaaake.

I could go way into depth on this, but to shorten it, his inclusion in Brawl got me into one of my favorite series ever.
Playing the game on the day of the Japanese release and realizing Snake really was cut was a terrible, heartbreaking moment for me. The only thing more heartbreaking would be if dlc ended without him returning. No matter how much I praise this game over Brawl and Melee, it will never feel complete to me without Snake.


Shantae:

Chance: 29%. Among all the indie characters, probably the most likely one, or at least tied with Shovel Knight. The Shantae series has a history of being on Nintendo consoles, and received quite abit of love from Nintendo in return, as shown in advertising. Furthermore, Wayforward has been very vocal about voting for her in the ballot, and would clearly be willing to work with Nintendo/Namco on a moveset for her.

The biggest thing against her would be that Japan doesn’t really know who she is, even though I’m sure they would love her just from her design. Heck, the Mighty ____ series got over there first, and Risky’s Revenge won’t hit Japan until possibly next year. But I suppose if the rest of the world wanted her enough, or more importantly, if she’s a well-liked idea by Sakurai, it could still happen.

Want: 100%. Definitely my most wanted third party newcomer. I absolutely adore Shantae. Her and everything found in her series would work perfectly in the world of Smash Bros. I also have massive respect for the people at WayForward, and would love to see their responses if Shantae were to be revealed.

In general, it’d be amazing if an indie game character joined the battle. The exposure the series and the indie scene would get from an inclusion in SSB would be incredible.

Nomination: Cranky Kong x5.
 
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Yomi's Biggest Fan

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View attachment 68734[/quote]
SHANTAE
Chance: 35%
Want: 100%
Holy frick, this is *********lockes to tackle right now. On one hand, those hypebeast "leaks" pertaining Shantae (Such as the whole "ShanTaunt" fiasco) really need to stop, as they all give false hope to us half-genie lovers. On the other hand, there's been a bit of an upsurge in support, such as WarioWare and Rhythm Heaven character designer Ko Takeuchi pitching in with his own fanart of Shantae and Ken Sugimori's (The one true Pokémon character designer!) fondness for Pirate's Curse. Oh, and right - Crusade just included her as a fighter, so at least that's something tangible for the long run.

In my eyes, Shantae has a bit more of a chance to actually get in, but not by much; just deal with it and keep supporting her. Did I mention that I'm still strongly in favor of Shantae joining? Because I am. :4pacman:

PREDICTLY TO YOU
Pirate Ship: 0.5%
Smash Tour Content: 0.5%
Nah, I'm cool. As for Smash Tour, don't break what can be fixed.

WHAT DO I HOPE IS NEXT?
Misty x5
If not for the 3DS version, I would have only wanted Misty - just to have my one true waifu~

Are you sure that you aren't LucasMucas from Gamefaqs? :troll:
 

CaptainAmerica

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Well, this'll be a long one. Fortunately quotes shorten things up from the reading end.

Today we've got two rerates for whom, honestly, not much has changed since they were first rated. Let's see what comes to pass.

Starting with our first three-time returning champion...

Snake
First rating:
Chance: 50%
This I'll give a coin toss. He was a veteran from the last game, which most definitely goes in his favor. He was also unique, so there's something missing that wasn't before. However, he's embroiled in the third-party bureaucracy realm, which is a major minus. Otherwise, all the arguments from the previous third parties hold.
Now in terms of him specifically, I never understood why he was in Brawl to begin with - I'm not saying I hated him, I'm just saying he's not the most well known on Nintendo consoles. After all, he's most closely associated with the PlayStation - aka Nintendo's major rival. He was in one GameBoy game, and just got a rerelease on 3DS, and that's it. Everything else was Playstation. So his description as a 'Nintendo All-Star' really doesn't hold in the slightest.
I know, he got in because Kojima is BFF with Sakurai.
So his major Nintendo release was really Brawl. Does existing in that game make him enough of an all-star to come back? I think it's a coin toss, and it comes down to politics.

Want: 25%
Never really liked him much in the first place - he didn't seem to fit. Even with the realistic graphics in Brawl, there was too much of a graphical disconnect between Snake and Kirby. Even Link/Captain Falcon in Brawl were looking a little too odd next to Kirby, then along comes hyper-realism. While that's normally what I like (really not into toony ****), it was a bit too jarring here. But then again, he's a veteran, and it is still sad to see anyone go.
And reinsert argument about me-not-liking-guests-on-principle-since-they-don't-fit argument for the fourth time.
Second Rating:
Chance: 20%
Want: 0%
Well, this score dropped a bit.

Still don't really like him much in the first place - he didn't really seem to fit with the rest of Nintendo's characters; he'd be better in Sony's rip-off. Besides, there's all the bureaucratic nonsense that Kojima's going through, so who knows what will come out of that.

I doubt he'll make a return, and personally I really won't miss him that much.
I still agree more with my second rating. Konami's in a mess now, and third parties have hoops to jump through. Snake may have it easier than most due to his veteran status, but he's not really a Nintendo baby as much as he is a Playstation baby. Sorry.

Final rating:
Chance: 20%
Want: 5%

Shantae
Original quote
Chance: 1%
Third party characters by nature make things complicated. Doubly so here, since there's a lot special about this. I'll start by acknowledging that she's got a decent amount of support in the US polls. And that's it. The head of WayForward liking the idea of her in smash is of no consequence. What is he supposed to say? "Ew, I really don't want another company to pay me to put my character into a game and give me loads of free publicity..." Besides, look at all the publicity he got just from saying he likes the idea.
Now, and this is true for all third party proposals, it comes down to the dollar signs. Is Nintendo, a company whose last console didn't quite do as well as hoped, going to be willing to pay another company, specifically a rival, sums of money to make their character as a guest DLC? Seems like a major loss for Nintendo, and a major gain for the third party, and that is never going to happen. Now, if the third party tried to pull off the same trick that Sony/Marvel Studios is doing with Spidey, that could get somewhere. Basically, the only way I see any third party getting in is if the other studio gives Nintendo the rights for the low price of $0 - including the DLC, and the amiibo stuff (maybe if they got a small cut of the amiibo sales) - in exchange for free publicity. Let's face it, Smash sells things, and you need look no further than Marth in Melee for that.

So I think it's never a good sign when I have to go read up on a character since I know nothing about them. A character who is being billed as a Nintendo All-Star should already be known. I should not have to look them up. I never needed to read up on Villager, Rosalina, or Kirby, despite never having played any of those games. Even the current third-parties are video game all-stars - I've never played Mega Man, but I was really happy to see him included since I know of that game. Most of the Smash cast is already known worldwide, and those who aren't stick out oddly. She isn't. And unlike characters like Marth at the time of Melee, Nintendo is a Japanese company - characters with huge Japanese and no American fanbases have so much more of a chance than the opposite (which may explain why the few Sm4sh character who aren't all-stars did get in). I doubt any characters unknown in Japan will get a chance. If Sakurai doesn't recognize the character, will he throw it in? Especially if it means cutting other characters he DOES recognize?
Let's also point out the fact that her first game was published by Capcom, and we've got a Capcom character in. And also another one is highly expected. And that game was released for GBC at the time GBA was released, so it was on a dying console. Her latest is being funded by Kickstarter, and is going to all company consoles. She hasn't even had a 3D appearance yet, and let's face it - sprite art is nice and retro if you're into that. But it's not the 90s anymore; most companies have moved on to actual graphics. Altogether, not a lot of good points there.
In terms of the look, she fits the whole 'kawaii' theme so that's ok. The outfit may be a bit of an issue, but then again the Gerudo Pirates in Ocarina of Time wore the same thing. And that's all I can say.
I think that she's definitely being overrated here. That's one of the problems of the internet (well, all over really) - a vocal minority usually trumps a silent majority. Here, it may seem like everyone is a supporter, but is that truly the case? Particularly at Nintendo HQ where it matters?
It all comes down to Nintendo and finances. Will Nintendo be willing to take a chance on a US Indie character? The negotiations will probably be easy, but will WayForward be able to handle it? Nintendo probably will not want to pay to advertise someone else, so will they be able to foot the bill, especially if they're making the game through Kickstarter?

Want: 0%
Honestly, I don't like guest characters in anything. Smash, with it's all-star matchup makes it a little more palatable, but still... I feel that the only guests we should have should represent gaming history, and I don't know if Shantae is that big of a character to have made a huge splash on the industry.
And my reasons from the above. Sorry.
...whew, forgot how much I wrote for that one. Still got a lot more to write. This might get a bit ranty, so here's a flame-bait warning:

So, apart from WayForward going bat-poo insane on social media trying to pathetically beg people to vote for their character and someone throwing up a fake leak on a database easier to make up data than Wikipedia, nothing has changed for her. However, I do need to acknowledge how rabid her fanbase is, which does raise her chances. However, while she may have started as a Nintendo exclusive, she's getting rid of that with Kickstarter no less. She is relatively unknown in Japan, and we know Sakurai favors the Japanese fanbase a bit more than the international.

Now, I've mentioned that I'm biased against third-parties. And she is absolutely no exception. There is nothing special about her. Sonic was Mario's rival all through the 90s. Pac-Man is pretty much the father of video gaming. Ryu is the father of fighting games. Even Mega Man is recognizable to the casual fan due to his longevity and status as Capcom's icon. Shantae is none of these. To anyone who claims that the indie component is her best deal, I ask why that makes a difference. Jut because someone has to sell their games on Kickstarter as opposed to GameStop doesn't make a character more iconic. If you wanted to go that route, I'd argue that Freddy Fazbear is more important to the indie world - Scott Cawthorn is a single person as opposed to a small company, and Freddy has reached memetic levels of popularity in an incredibly short time - you can barely go onto YouTube without seeing at least one video of the Let's Play star-of-the-week getting scared by Foxy popping up. Besides, he's even figured out that you can make an indie game with something more impressive than 90's era pixel art - I'm not really a fan of retreaux, please join the rest of us in the 21st century. Shantae, on the other hand, is a random hero on a quest. The only big thing she can count on is that she's female. So is Peach. And Zelda. And Rosalina. And Lucina. And Palutena. And the WFT and Villager and Robin and even BJ all have female options. Oh, and the first female video game hero in a platformer, who is a Nintendo first-party.

Now, for my want score...Abso-effing-lutely not. Everyone has their character they will be do not want to see whatsoever, and she's mine. Mainly because of the implications that would carry for other characters. I've supported Ridley and K.Rool, so I've now gotten heaping piles of hate thrown for both characters, who have undeniable importance to their respective series, both of which are pathetically underrepresented in Smash. I can't believe an indie darling is any more important than the two of them. Even other third-parties are more important to gaming than her. Heck, we just re-rerated Snake, who has a moveset already, and is the protagonist of a very highly acclaimed series. What about someone like Hatsune Miku - she's important enough she brought the rhythm games to a new level and is a video game character that sells out concerts in Japan? What about someone like Ivy from Soul Calibur - first fighting game to get a 40/40 on Famitsu (second game after Ocarina)? Someone from Final Fantasy, one of the most recognizable interactable animes video games of all time? StarCraft? Elder Scrolls? A lot of non-gamers recognize these game titles...but not Shantae. She is not iconic. At all. And I do not want to see a third-party which is not iconic. Besides it only being a seller for hardcore fans, that's dev time they wasted on not bringing in someone who could sell. Leave Smash to the Nintendo characters, and leave the third-parties to their own crossover games.

Also, part of it is the fanbase: I realize a lot of people were turned off of Ridley and K.Rool due to rabid, abrasive fans. Shantae, however, has them too. Even worse, Shantae's creators are basically begging for attention in what is reminiscent of the pathetic end of a political election. I'm turned off so much by that attitude. And really, my first contact with Shantae was that I noticed her picture was one of the most common images seen in the avatar/sigs of the worst Ridley detractors and tear-drinkers, so that also really turned me off of the character. First impressions are hard to break.

On the whole, though, I really like the idea of third-parties getting Mii costumes, and I think she should definitely get one. By all means, give her a trophy too. Mii costumes are great ways to get characters playable who are basically third-party and not earth-shatteringly important. I've not had a problem with making Link and Zelda as custom characters in a different company game/console like Soul Calibur 4 or 5, but I kinda have a problem if someone as important as K.Rool is getting nothing more than a customization option in a game about his home company. And yes, theat will still bring popularity to the holder of the third party. I think this is really the best option.

whew...

So, in conclusion...I will gladly support Shantae to get in the game. Once Ridley and K.Rool are playable. Until then, no dice. And for bonus points, I'll also take Midna, Ghirahim, and Squirtle's return, and an improved Ganondorf from Hyrule Warriors. Give me those and I'd support even Shrek.

Final rating:
Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Predictions:
Smash Tour Content: 0.9%
Pirate Ship: 10.1%​

Nominate Dixie rerate x5

And a notice for everyone - I'm going to be away for a week. I should still have internet access, but it'll be periodic, and I won't have access to anything more complex than an iPad so I can't promise the Nom list will be beautifully organized every day. Also, I'll still update the time and post number whenever I update the list, but it'll be Germany time for a week.

I think that's the most I've ever written for someone, and that took well over an hour to write. Good night all.
 
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