Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[MasterOfKnees]

Ashley:

Likelihood: 2% - WarioWare is a big selling series, but I honestly can't see any reason to add anyone other than Wario from it. Wario is the only one from the series that has made a name for himself, the others are sort of just there to have more variety with the minigames. It's very much like the Yoshi series imo, a big and well selling franchise, but doesn't really have the potential for a second character (and even then I see Kamek joining before Ashley.)

Want: 0% - As goes for every WarioWare rep. I've played the games, but I don't see why or how any of these other guys should be in Smash Bros.

Sylveon Prediction: 3% - I think people are gonna acknowledge that it's between the Brawl veterans + Mewtwo, and even then Sylveon wouldn't be the first choice for a newcomer.

Nominations:
5x Toad

 

[Ephecus]

Ashley

Chance: 3 %
I don't know why Ashley would outprioritise Mona or Jimmy T. Apart from that it is unlikely that we will get another Wario Ware rep this time around.

Want: 65 %
In regards to Wario I'd rather have C.Syrup than any Wario Ware rep., however Ashley is my most favourite Wario Ware character so I would be happy to see her in SSB4 even if she doesn't really deserve it. Also her themesong rocks.

Sylveon Prediction: 11.5 %

Nominations: 5x Daisy

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

I'm debating on choosing Crocomire or a completely random earthbound enemy =P

New Age Retro Hippie!

Ashely: 5%
Want: 5%
Sylveon: 3%
Nominate:
Ridley x 3
Yarne x 2

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I'm debating on choosing Crocomire or a completely random earthbound enemy =P

Choose Return of Octobot from Mother 3, the one enemy which made me laugh out loud because of the over-exaggerated name.

 

[BlitznBurst]

Ashley chances: 5%? I've never been able to get into the Warioware franchise or its fandom but from what I can tell people think she's the most likely Wario Ware character. I really don't think the series is notable enough personally but hey, if Sakurai does

Want: 20%. idgaf

Sylveon prediction: 8%. People don't really expect it to get in, do they?

Wonder Red X10

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Ashley

Likelihood: 5% - Another Warioware character is very unlikely. Sure, she seems to be quite popular, but it really doesn't help her chance much. I honestly think Wario will be the only one to represent his games.

Want: 60% - I think she'd be an interesting addition as she has a lot of personality. She would use an assortment of darker magic based attacks as opposed to the likes of Zelda, who uses more light, "fairy-ish" magic. However, there are a lot of people who I think should get in before her.

Sylveon: 15% - People will probably rate this higher than it should be.

Nominations:
Isaac x5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Ashley

Likelihood: 3% - Honestly, I don't see any Wario Ware characters getting in

Want: 30% - She's a fun character and would make a nice fighter. However, I would much rather have 9-Volt or Kat and Anna as Wario Ware reps.

Sylveon: 4%

Primid x5

 

[DukeofShorts]

Ashley chance: 2%
Not very important enough.

Ashley want: 0.1%
There are waaaay more deserving characters than her.

Sylveon prediction: 13.56%
There are many Pokémon who are better than her.

Anthony Higgs x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ashley Chance: 33% She has a solid chance IF Warioware gets a new rep.
Ashley Want: 45% Shes sorta like Tharja to me, but it would be wicked fun.
Slveon Prediction: 15.7%
Nominations:
Tom Nook x5

 

[Xenigma]

Sylveon's tomorrow? WILL THE ZERO STREAK NEVER END?!?

Ashley - 0%
WarioWare's weird in that it has a number of colorful characters to consider, yet none of them are remotely as notable as Wario himself is. Knowing the tons of more popular/notable characters from other franchises still to be included and that Wario encapsulates his series so well, there's really no need to try to figure out who between Ashley and Mona and Jimmy T and Kat and Ana and whoever else most deserves to be made playable in Smash. Plus, nearly as I can tell the Wario series has faded dramatically in recent years with game releases and sales falling dramatically. Just too much of a stretch in my mind to see WarioWare get another rep when there's too many better candidates to choose from.
Want - 0% - Would be sad to see a slot spent on a WarioWare character.

Sylveon Prediction - 6.5%
Some users believe the latest Eeveelution has what it takes, given Fairy type and all.

Nominations
Black Shadow x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Ashley? 0.05%
Like Tingle, she is a quirky b-list supporting role in her series. Unlike Tingle, the series itself is not even an A-list one. The only Wario character somewhat likely doesn't even have many nominations, Captain Syrup.

predict Sylveon 2.5%

Victini x5 (I haven't forgotten Wonder Red, but we must get another Pokemon rated before... -shudders- Omastar... that's somewhere between Feebas and Professor Oak.)

 

[Gam3rALO]

Ashley:
Chance: 1%
I doubt Wario will get another rep. IMO it is the same chance of Yoshi and Wario getting another rep.
Want: 0%
Please NO!

Prediction for Sylveon: 9.57%
My quest is complete!!!!!!

Nominations: (I will just nominate Groose until I think of a new one)
Groose x5

 

[Morbi]

Ashley
Chance: 5%
- I truly believe that Sora Ltd. made WarioWare the designated franchise as a gimmick. The same thing with Yoshi. They do have their own franchises, but the common public sees them both as Mario characters. It really was just an excuse to put more Mario characters in the game. So I am fairly convinced that Ashley will be battling it out with the likes of Toad/Paper Mario/Waluigi/ and Bowser Jr. I do not think that they are going to add much Mario this time. I don't even think another WarioWare stage will make it into the game. All that being said, ultimately WarioWare was a gimmick to add more Mario characters. The common public and casual fanbase doesn't discern the 3 franchises as separate, even if they are aware of the distinction.

Want: 15%
- There are characters that I want more. She isn't a bad selection though. The only reason her percentage is so low is because I want some other franchises to get some representation. I would not mind another F-Zero character. Another Kid Icarus rep (maybe even 2). Another DK rep. Probably even another Mother rep. You get the picture. I want resources spread more across the board. No doubt adding Ashley would solidify and differentiate Wario from Mario. I just don't think it would happen. I want the Ridley/ K. Rool/ or Palutena out of the way before I even consider adding a character like Ashley.

Sylveon Prediction : 10%
- She is one of the only Pokemon that could possibly make it in aside from the BIG 5. If she isn't playable, she is almost guaranteed a Pokeball slot.

 

[jaytalks]

Ashley:
Likelihood: 5%
I still think the far more likely character is Mona. Although Ashley is more popular, I believe Mona is much more important to the series and has a better chance of appearing with Wario for aesthetic reasons. Popularity in a series like Wario doesn't really matter.
Want: 60%
Although I would love a new Wario rep, I think I would prefer Kat and Anna or Mona much more. Still, Ashley would be a welcomed sight. I also don't really like her microgames.
Sylveon: 13.27%

Nominations:
Matthew (Golden Sun) x 5

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Ashley Chance: 33% She has a solid chance IF Warioware gets a new rep.
Ashley Want: 45% Shes sorta like Tharja to me, but it would be wicked fun.
Slveon Prediction: 15.7%
Nominations:
Tom Nook x5

At least Ashley doesn't dress the way Tharja does lol


Ashley

Chance: 15%
Want: 10%
Slyveon's prediction: 22.34%

Nomination:

Daisy x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Ashley
Chance - 6%
Used to be one of my top choices, but that's mostly because I wanted another Wario Ware rep. This series is as quirky as Nintendo gets, and it's the series of choices to debut new hardware (aside for the 3DS which got no Wario Ware game.) It is not unreasonable to imagine a second rep happening, although the problem is that there's other franchises at this point that deserve the growth as much or more (and no, I don't think the Yoshi series is part of that, so no kamek does not have as much of a chance.)
The problem though, is the fact that since pre-Brawl Wario Ware has decreased a bit from the status it had and become considerably less successful. Game and Wario seemed like a comeback, but it did poorly in terms of reception and sales for the most part, and it also sacked the microgame format that made it so unique. If anything, this is what changing my perception of her chances and my want for her.
Within Wario stuff though, I do think Ashley is the best candidate if anything because of sheer popularity. She also has more move-set potential than Jimmy and Mona combined, and overall would fit the game much better. I guess here's where we'll find out how much of an impact pre-Brawl popularity will have.

Want - 70%
I'd really enjoy having her in the game. Really fun character. However, my want has decreased from when I started nominating her, mostly due to wanting a specific other series get repped before Wario Ware gets a second rep.

Prediction
Sylveon - 3.23%
If I predict anything higher than 0.111111% it's because some people here wil definitelyl overrate sylveon's chances.

Nominations
x5 Rhythm Monkey

 

[Erimir]

Ashley

Popularity: She might be one of the most popular characters from the Wario Ware games, but... That's for Wario Ware.

Relevancy: The Wario Ware game has one main character only: Wario. Ashley and Mona and Jimmy T and Kat and Ana are recurring characters, but they're all pretty minor.

Design: I guess you could come up with something interesting. She's mostly a blank slate and she has magic, so that gives potential.

Roster and Competition: She's competing against some other Wario Ware characters, but she might be the winner in that group. She's also competing against Captain Syrup and Waluigi. Waluigi might have not appeared in Wario games before, but he does seem like a "partner" to Wario. The most important problem, though, is that Wario isn't likely to get another slot IMO.

Ashley chances: 0.8%
Chances aren't high for a new Wario Ware/Land character, and while Waluigi isn't strictly a Wario character, if he were to get in, I could see him hurting their chances more. Ashley seems the most likely choice, but the competition from Captain Syrup, Mona and Jimmy T is non-negligible if Wario is getting another rep.

Ashley want: 40%
I really don't care. She seems too minor to be worthy of an inclusion imo though.

Sylveon prediction: 5%
I thought Sylveon was something else at first. Yeah, doesn't look like she should rate that high.

Nominations:
Mikes Jones x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Ashley: 3%
Want: 10%

Sylveon: 3%

x5 Toad

 

[Groose]

Ashley's Chances: 2%
I doubt we see a second WarioWare character. The roster can only be so big and none of the WarioWare characters are demanded for Smash or iconic in general. I also doubt Ashley would be the WarioWare character, as is the consensus of this board. She hasn't even been around since the beginning; she has moveset potential, but so do the other goofy characters from the game. I personally find Jimmy T., Mona, and 9-Volt to have better odds than she does.

Ashley Want: 75%
I love surprises. This would be the surprise of the century, to be sure. Still, I would much rather have 9-Volt or Jimmy freaking T. They're just levels above her in terms of pure awesome.

Sylveon: 2.53%
... Fairies.

Adam Malkovitch x5
With the way Sakurai is dishing out the Other M content... perhaps Adam will make for an interesting day.

NEW: UPDATE SCHEDULE
So, I've decided to make some slight changes to my schedule. The game should now update as follows.

Monday-Thursday: About 4PM EST
Friday: Between 4PM EST and 8 PM EST
Saturday: Between 7 PM EST and 10 PM EST
Sunday: No Update

My weekends have become quite hectic, so I have to space things out accordingly. That means the game will update six days a week instead of seven. It's not a big issue in my opinion, but I just like to be as open with you guys as I can. So I'll see you all at 4PM tomorrow.

 

[SchAlternate]

Well, crud. It seems I somehow have to leave to someplace to do something tomorrow. And I may be gone for four days or so. So, I guess I'll miss Sylveon's, Anthony's, Mach Rider's and possibly Lloyd's day. See ya guys later.

(Watch how I win extra noms tomorrow)

EDIT: That reminds me: Groose, if I were to win nominations, but I'm absent the day I get them, can I still use them for later?

 

[XenothiumX]

Ashley
Likelihood: 1%

Want: 10%

Sylveon
Prediction: 3%

Nominations:
Majora's Mask Link x5

 

[DukeofShorts]

That reminds me: Groose, if I were to win nominations, but I'm absent the day I get them, can I still use them for later?

I asked this same question in August and yes you can use them for later.

 

[Groose]

Well, crud. It seems I somehow have to leave to someplace to do something tomorrow. And I may be gone for four days or so. So, I guess I'll miss Sylveon's, Anthony's, Mach Rider's and possibly Lloyd's day. See ya guys later.

(Watch how I win extra noms tomorrow)

EDIT: That reminds me: Groose, if I were to win nominations, but I'm absent the day I get them, can I still use them for later?

Of course. Nominations don't have to be used the next day...I just don't remind you if you don't pay attention to my post and see you won them.

Because of your special absence and your status as possibly my favorite user here, I'll make sure to pm you if you win. Don't worry and have fun.

And missing Anthony Higgs Day is probably for the best. I expect a lot, and I mean a lot, of flaming. The thread may not be here when you get back.

 

[djgeiger0620]

Well this works out well, I normally miss Sundays and so now I get to cast my vote!

Ashley

Chances - 2% on a good day. Realistically probably less. Great likelyhood if they were to add a Wario character, but highly unlikely that they will.

Want - 0% Sorry to those of you who are fans, I've never been a fan of Wario Ware in general, so I never got attached to any characters.

Sylveon - 3.2%

Noms to Lloyd!

 

[DragonSniperNintendo]

Ashley:

Chance: 30% or so, she is surely one of the top secondary Wario choices but I feel she has competition with the likes of Mona and Captain Syrup.

Want: 10% or so, don't really care if she is in or not but she would be fun with her dark magic.

Nominations:
Adam Malkovich x3
Sheriff x2

 

[BlitznBurst]

You know, I came to the amazing idea of having Waluigi be the second Wario rep so there's no worries about him taking the place of a beloved Mario rep

Then I remembered Waluigi isn't even in the Wario series and I felt really stupid

 

[DragonSniperNintendo]

You know, I came to the amazing idea of having Waluigi be the second Wario rep so there's no worries about him taking the place of a beloved Mario rep

Then I remembered Waluigi isn't even in the Wario series and I felt really stupid

Well it would make sense if he was put in there, at least WarioWare and WarioLand could USE him

 

[DarkKry4]

Ashley

Chance: 0%
Wario will be the only playable representative of warioware. To think otherwise would be insane. The other characters are not notable at all.

Want: 50%
i don't care

Sylveon: 1%


x5 Pauline (Super Mario Bros)

 

[Groose]

Ashley (WarioWare)
5.85% chance
27.43% want

Looks like you weren't concerned with the witch's spells... you deemed her as little threat to a roster spot. Also, to use a reliable measuring stick, she was only slightly more popular than TINGLE. All in all, not a good day for that witch living in the haunted mansion...

That picture... is worth all the exposition in the world. Please leave your chance and want on Sylveon today.

Remember him? Tomorrow we will rate Anthony Higgs. Please predict how Anthony will do in tomorrow's game. Today's winner is Good Guy Giygas. Enjoy the extra five.

And.... I'll get to the music section, guys. Eventually.

 

[Deleted member]

Oh boy...
You ready? I'm ready.
Sylveon
Chance: 0%
WARNING: What you are about to read is pretty long. I also might get some details wrong along the way...

Spoiler

There have been talks by numerous fans about which Pokemon they want to appear in SSB4. A lot say Mewtwo, some say that Lucario will return, and some want Pokemon like Meowth, Genesect, or Zoroark. With the Generation VI games rapidly approaching, some fans have been asking for some Generation VI Pokemon added to the roster. While I won’t be judgmental about the people who want those Pokemon, I will say that those Generation VI Pokemon, like Sylveon, have no chance.


First off, the Generation VI games, Pokemon X and Y, are new. They will be released on October 12 while SSB4 will come out next year. During Brawl’s development, Generation IV was also fairly new as well. However, the development team had the time to look at the most highly requested Pokemon and they would then implement Lucario into the roster. Sylveon, while incredibly popular, is probably doomed because of it being very recent. Sakurai has mentioned that he looks at what’s the hot Pokemon and what Pokemon have appeared in the movies. Sylveon has appeared in a short special, but it didn’t have a whole movie like Mewtwo and Lucario did. Even before the movie came out, I saw some support for Lucario in Brawl.

Also, due to Pokemon X’s and Y’s soon release date, this could affect Sylveon’s chances as we will eventually see that one Pokemon that everyone wants to see in SSB4. So, it could be rather conflicting during development time. Not only that, but we are talking about this being the match-up of the all-stars, so wouldn’t it be too early to consider Sylveon an all-star yet? Overall, I find it that it would be too soon for Sylveon to be added to the roster as Pokemon X and Y are a bit too recent. Sylveon is also blown away by its competition in terms of support and fan demand.

Given time, maybe it could have a chance, but I don’t see it happening right now. While I do see the uniqueness Sakurai is looking for and I see some support, I am unsure that it will prevail in the end. As I see it right now, I think that Generation VI will get a Poke Ball Pokemon, Trophy, or Sticker. But a spot on the roster? I don’t see it happening.

One element from Generation VI that I should bring up is Mega Evolutions. Some of the most popular Pokemon like Mewtwo and Lucario have one (or in Mewtwo’s case, two). I think that Mega Evolutions help out those Pokemon as the Mega Evolutions make them more relevant again amongst fans. In fact, they could be used in a Final Smash.

tl;dr Sylveon is too recent to really have a shot in my opinion and it doesn’t have a movie to really back up its appearance. Pokemon with Mega Evolutions will get a higher chance, so Mewtwo and Lucario are more likely.
Want: 0%
No thank you. There are many other Pokemon that I want.
Anthony Higgs Prediction: 8.32%
Remember him? I dunno if Sakurai will.
Nominations: Little Mac 3x, Captain Rainbow 2x

 

[BlitznBurst]

Likelihood: 1%. Seriously wat. Who thought this would have a chance of happening. Who actually thought this was worth voting for. No. Just

No

Want: 0%. Sometimes I just do not understand people at all

Anthony prediction: 3%. I see a massive bias steamroller coming tomorrow

And when it does, I shall gladly join it

Woder Red X 5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Slveon Chance: 3% Unlikely to be chosen, but still a viable character.
Slveon Want: 0%
Anthony Prediction: 4.6% Unlikely to be chosen also, but still a viable character.
Nominations:
Tom Nook x4
Anna x1
Now the nominations of both merchants stand at x101

 

[Glaciacott]

Sylveon
Chance - 0.83%
I don't understand why this is a thing. I really don't. Why would Sylveon be in Smash?

Want - 0%
No thanks. I like Sylveon, so far one of the favorites in a new type that will probably become one of my favorite types in pokemon. But I don't want it in Smash because it makes no sense to me. If we're talking eeveelutions in Smash I'd rather want Cynthia with glaceon, lucario and garchomp, or even a kimono girl with the three original eeveelutions. But Sylveon just there on its own? No thanks.

Prediction
Anthony Higgs - 8.59%
I have no clue what to expect from him. On one hand, Sakurai seems to not mind Other M so it wouldn't be surprising if he went for Anthony, but on the other hand the idea feels like such a slap in the face to Ridley fans that I don't know what to make of it.

Nominations
onward goes my one girl crusade to get this monkey on top ...
x5 Rhythm Monkey

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Sylveon

Likelihood: 5% - As an oridnary Pokémon , Sylveon has not much running for him. He's not the best gen VI rep, not the best Fairy rep and we have never seen an Eeveelution in Smash. So no, he's not joining the Brawl

Want: 50% - Sylveon is nice, but I would like to se more of him before I can judge

Anthony: 6%

Primid x5

 

[Starcutter]

sylveon: 15% not the best, but MAYBE. probably not though.
Want 75% pink? yes! ribbons? YES! not a ball? OMG BEST THING EVER.

Anthony: uh... 4.7%?

Noms:
Lucario x4
Phoenix wright

 

[BlitznBurst]

There are two main elements from X and Y that would be worth characters. The Mega Evolutions and the new Fairy type

The mega evolution is taken up by either Mewtwo or Lucario, who are both veterans and have much larger support bases

The fairy type niche is far more suited for Jigglypuff, who a) is more well-known b) was in the first game so probably isn't gonna get cut and c) is probably in need of an overhaul anyway without her new ability being stolen by ****ing Sylveon

 

[Chandeelure]

Sylveon
Chance:1%
Want:0%

Anthonny:7%

Nomination:Bandana Dee X5

 

[Silverjay323]

Sylveon:
Want: 0% People are really overestimating the new eveelutions' popularity.

Chances: 0% The most it could possibly hope for is trophy status.

Ant: 0% Nope.

Nominations: Nintenx5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Sylveon
Chance: 2%Sylveon has a few things going for it: it's the latest in the ridiculously popular Eeveelution family, one of the (many) Pokemon to obtain the newest type; Fairy(alongside Jigglypuff) and is a rep for Gen 6. Although not as much as say...a Pokemon with a mega form, the latest addition to the Pokemon series of which three Smash staples currently have: Mewtwo, Charizard and Lucario(also there's a leak that Wigglytuff and Raichu have also obtained Mega forms, making every Pokemon that's been in Smash related to a mega form).

So basically Sylveon's only real chance comes from the fact that s/he's cute, recent and related to Eevee. That's not to say there's NO chance, but with an already fullish Pokemon roster, Sylveon not being that big of a deal outside being the first Fairy type to be revealed and that Pokemon are picked on "hottest ticket", which usually coincides with the long running anime and it's not exactly stacked in his/her favour.

Want: 0%Eevee line may be the one Pokemon line I actively hate; seeing it as a Pokemon favoured by indecisive people and constantly being bombarded with the little sod in Conquest and the Gamecube titles. Sylveon is in a way even worse, because it's only even suggested because it's new. Which is crap reasoning. Eevee, as much as I loathe it, has actually become one of the more memorable Pokemon within the series history.

If you want to talk Pokemon more important than Sylveon we've got a large selection to choose from: Any of the 18 starters now and their evolutions, Any of the 49 legendary Pokemon, Eevee itself, Meowth(because the anime is a big part of this game series), Psyduck(see before), Pichu(Smash vet) and even arguably Zoroark.
If you want to talk about putting in Pokemon more popular within the game, Smogon provides a list of what is currently used and what's not(although to be fair to Sylveon, come Gen 6 this is all going to change thanks to the balancing Gamefreak are attempting to do).

It also doesn't help that anything it can do in my eyes; appeal to female audience, promote fairy typing, is already done by Jigglypuff the Smash Bros. staple.

Anthony Higgs prediction: 2%
Although he is the best thing in Other M, he's still FROM Other M and will as a result get a lot of hate from Metroid's western fanbase. Also I guess he's technically competing with Ridley for a Metroid slot, so poor guys going to get slaughtered.

Nominations:
Captain Syrup X 5

 

[Seraphim.]

Sylveon:

Chance: 0% Yea...nothing really going for it.
Want: 0%

Anthony: 14% I know someone will probably give him a high chance.....

Lloyd Irving x 5