First character in a while I've been rather interested in rating, so I'm going indulge myself in a longer post...
Tetra - 10%
Here's a real oddity: a newcomer that we've rated twice now to great success, but only in the context of being the transformation of a presumptive clone. Out of context, that sounds really weird. Why should it be more unlikely that they simply fly solo? Why should a clone be considered at all likely when all signs point to unique newcomers being greatly preferred to clones or even semi-clones? Is this some bizarre case of Smashboards groupthink, or does the pairing over individual characters have grounding in reality? Well, as is clear from my rating, I do think Tetra flying solo isn't terribly likely, and the context of being Toon Zelda's alternate identity is critical to understanding why.
First, a positive note: I do think Tetra is the most notable Zelda character not already playable in Smash, and given the apparent focus on unique newcomers, Tetra not having a Toon Zelda transformation may be preferable, not to mention less work for Sakurai and company. Crafting a moveset around her being a pirate and perhaps commanding her crew could make for a very unique character without the crutch of a Toon Zelda transformation. Tetra being solo is certainly a viable option, regardless of how likely it may seem at the moment.
What makes this considerably more unlikely than the paired character, though, is partially due to Smash history and partially due to how she is portrayed in the actual games. The most obvious Smash-related issue is with Zelda and Sheik. Sheik, like Tetra, is the famous alter-ego of an incarnation of Zelda, and her inclusion in Smash ended up being not as a solo character but as a transformation from Zelda. Considering that design was used in both Melee and Brawl, it stands to reason that Tetra, being another popular Zelda alter-ego, would likely be depicted as a transformation of Toon Zelda. A less obvious issue (though one well known here on Smashboards) is that placeholder files for Toon Zelda were found in Brawl as part of the "Forbidden Seven", and along with her files were those for a Toon Sheik. While it's impossible to know if Toon Sheik was actually going to be a Toon-ified Sheik or a placeholder for Tetra, the implication is clear that Toon Zelda takes precedent over Tetra and that a transformation was planned.
More interesting, in my mind, is why it makes more sense from the perspective of the Zelda games themselves. Tetra herself only appears in Wind Waker and Phantom Hourglass, with a cameo in Spirit Tracks as she is depicted as the ancestor of the Zelda of that game. Between the two games she only takes on the persona of Princess Zelda in Wind Waker when it is practically forced on her, and once the main quest completes she returns back to her feisty pirate self. Meanwhile, Toon Zelda has appeared in five games without including Phantom Hourglass (WW, MC, FS, FSA, ST), both making the design rather widespread throughout the series and generally making her more important than Tetra herself is. Toon Zelda is typically presented in a similar fashion to any other Zelda, but it's her Spirit Tracks rendition that really makes me think TZ/T could be a thing as that particular Zelda maintains many of Tetra's personality traits as a descendant. Even if she never takes on the role of a pirate herself, it seems the legacy of Tetra lives on and has become a critical part of Toon Zelda's identity within her most popular appearances, so should Toon Zelda ever make it into Smash, it stands to reason that Tetra would be the logical choice to replace Sheik (assuming Sakurai doesn't actually make a Toon Sheik).
There's one other little detail that seems to indicate that TZ/T isn't merely possible, but perhaps is even imminent. Remember that Phantom that appeared in Zelda's SSB4 reveal? That's a very clear nod to Spirit Tracks, which seems like an odd choice for regular Zelda...unless Toon Zelda is in the works and both their movesets were altered to include said Phantom. While that certainly seems to help the chances of Toon Zelda appearing (and, by extension, TZ/T), it hurts the chances of solo Tetra since it implies that Toon Zelda is in the works, and if TZ is in, there's no chance Tetra is going to be solo. There's the edge case that Toon Zelda specifically was cut early on and the Phantom is merely a leftover scrap from that design, allowing solo Tetra to be a thing, but that's a bit too specific a speculative scenario to really affect anyone's odds.
Where does this leave us? Well, Toon Zelda/Tetra sure feels like the most likely Zelda newcomer. Tetra alone, on the other hand, just doesn't seem likely, at least based on what we know of the character and how Sakurai has treated her and regular Zelda within Smash. Being a paired, transform character seems to be the possibility with the most momentum behind it and the logical choice if either of the two characters were considered for Smash. As such, TZ/T gets the highest chance of all the possible incarnations of the character by quite a bit, while Tetra solo lags far behind in second, followed far behind again in third by a possible Toon Zelda/Toon Sheik. Both of those last two options certainly seem plausible, but at this point it doesn't seem like either one is terribly likely.
Want - 75% - I really like Tetra. The weird thing is I'm even more fond her being a transformation of Toon Zelda since I'm already a fan of regular Zelda in Smash and like how well having them paired ties into the lore of the Zelda series, particularly her Wind Waker incarnation. Would certainly be pleased to see her solo, but TZ/T seems like a significantly better option.
No Namco Bandai Character - 25%
We've known since SSB4 was announced that Namco was a critical part of the developing the game. Given that relationship, it makes a lot of sense that Namco Bandai would be strongly considered for a potential third party character, assuming they have one that is high profile enough to be sensible for Smash. Considering they own Pac-Man, one of the most famous video game characters ever, they certainly have something that fits the bill. Even discounting that, there are some more niche options like Lloyd Irving or Kazuya that appeal to Nintendo fans or fighting game fans. It's not exactly a guarantee, knowing that Sakurai has said that Namco isn't going to get special treatment for a third-party slot, but it feels like it's rather likely a Namco character will be in SSB4, probably showing up in a trailer this E3.
Want - 50% - Pretty neutral, though Pac-Man in particular would fit in well alongside icons like Mario and Sonic even if his fighting capabilities are dubious.
Diskun Prediction - 2.2%
Will have enough speculative fans to counteract the inevitable zero/near-zero ratings.
Pac-Man Prediction - 55%
Pretty funny we're re-rating him right after this current concept round.
Nominations
Midna x5
