Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Ephecus]

Lady Palutena

Chance: 60 %
I think that KI is likely to get a second rep (Chance is around 3:1) and Palutena is the strongest contender.
The only gripe I have with her is that she only serves as a supporting role in every KI:U game, but that never held characters like Zelda back.

Want: 40 %
In my opinion her theme overlaps with the theme of Zelda and Rosalina and I'd rather have Medusa in Smash.

Nightmare

Chance: 0%

Want: 0.5%

Y/O- Tag: 0.11 %

 

[Hades the Magnificent]

It's very encouraging to see that the Palutena pictures I made have been doing a real number on this board. Who should I leak next? Hmm...

I think Shadow the Hedgehog would start a pretty flame war... Then again, anything involving Ridley is always controversial... Decisions, decisions.

Anyway, I'm just here to thank you all for demanding I come back to run this game, but it's old news, and old news bores me. We must look to the future, and that future is me: Leaker of Pictures.

 

[Groose]

Lies

Don't feed the troll, gentlemen. Don't feed the troll.

And don't trust him, either.

 

[Xhampi]

Nightmare
Chance : 0,2 %
-It's not sure that we will get a Namco rep.
-Fighting character
-Compete against the likes of Pac-Man

Want : 75 %
For me Nightmare is one of those character that you would really love to play as, but know that he have no chance to be include, sadly. He's pretty much my Banjo Kazooie.

Palutena
Chance : 80 %
The only new characters I'm willing to give more than that are Mewtwo (if you consider him a new rep) and Ridley.

Want : 65 %
Not a big supporter of her myself (I would be fine with her just being a character codec for Pit) but I would like to see her be playable for her fanbase.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Nghtmare
5% Chance
5% Want

Palutena 95% Chance
95% Want

Yarne Owain Combo.17%

Nominating Mach Rider x5

 

[Knight Dude]

Nightmare

Chances: 1%: He's a fighting game character, so given Sakurai's statments, he isn't happening. I only put in 1% since any character could be an exception to the rule. That and he fought Link before, so it wouldn't be too out there of an idea.

Want: 80%: I really like Soul Calibur. And Nightmare is one of the cooler characters in the series. He's also one of the iconic characters from said series.

Palutena

Chances: 80%: Leaks aside, she's a popular character. And on top of this, she's the only major Kid Icarus character that is missing. Well, one isn't really needed, but she's the best choice. Not really sure what else to say.

Want: 85%: I think she could be a cool choice for Smash. Not in my Top 3, but easily in my Top 10.

Tag Team guys: 1% "Who are they?" Exactly. Not every random Fire Emblem character is getting in guys. Better off going with Chrom, Lucina or someone the general public knows.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Skipping Nightmare since I don't know who it is, and going right to the main attraction:

Palutena:

Chance: 90% - Is she in yet? She might as well be.

Want: 50% - I'm rather neutral towards her, I don't hate nor specifically like her.

Yarne/Owain: 0.04% - Still better than Chancellor Cole

Nominations:
5x Takamaru

 

[the smash nerd]

Nightmare Chance 0% Want: 0% don't see him in
Palutena: Chance: 90% - Is she in yet? She might as well be.
Want: 90% Still better than Yarne Owain Or Chancellor Cole

 

[the smash nerd]

Nightmare Chance 0% Want: 0% don't see him in
Palutena: Chance: 90% - Is she in yet? She might as well be.
Want: 90% Still better than Yarne Owain Or Chancellor Cole

 

[YoshiandToad]

Want: 90% Still better than Yarne Owain Or Chancellor Cole

Talking of which...tomorrow's the day. You gonna toss them a prediction?

 

[Luigi#1]

Palutena: Want: 80% Chance:50%.

EDIT:Wait, who your rating has to be certaint characters daily?

 

[YoshiandToad]

Palutena: Want: 80% Chance:50%.

EDIT:Wait, who your rating has to be certaint characters daily?

Ah, so whoever is the character on the front page, in the first post(alongside the thread title) is who you rate in chance and want. Chance has to be how likely you predict their chances of being a newcomer are(so no 100% as we don't rate the chances of obvious returnees like Yoshi, Wario, Diddy, etc) whilst Want can be however much you'd like that character.

Each day you are awarded 5 nominations for you to use at the end of your post to vote for who you'd like to rate.

You also predict tomorrow's overall rating score. If you guess closest you are awarded 5X nominations to use on whoever you like. If you get the rating EXACTLY right you're given 10X Nominations on top of the usual 5X Nominations a day you get for just participating.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Nightmare: 0%
Want: 0% I had to do reeaserch... For this creepy piece of junk? Why?...

Palutena: 90% I have never believed a leak... Until now. I gave her a 30% increase from last time
Want: 50% Meh...

Yarne & Owain Tag Team: 0.6%

x5 Leon. HELP ME NOMINATE HIM!!!

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Nightmare (chance and want) - 0%
been shoot down for originating in a fighting game, he's disconfirmed, get over it
Palutena - 72.81%
while I completely believe that the leak is real, i'm not taking it into account until it gets confirmed, just something I prefer to do, but still Palutena has got a lot of edges too, she's not the most likely kid Icarus newcomer without reason you know
want - 70%
she's not my most wanted character from kid Icarus (that's dark pit. . . ya I know) but I still like her, and she would deserve her spot on the all star roster
yarne & owain tag team: 0.01
oh boy
Nominations:
WolfX5 CAN'T LET YOU DO THAT, STARFOX!!!!

 

[Cheezey Bites]

KNightmare:

Chance: 0%
Ineligable

Want: 0%
Doesn't fit the style



Palutena:

Chance: 92%
I was 60/40 on believing the leak before yesterday, but that statue looks too much like Paleaktena, especially in the face for me. Palutena dfinitely has a model in the game in my opinion, the only question is, is it an AT?

Let's think this through. Palutena is one of two characters to be in both the Elite 4 and Legendery Trio of Japan, her popularity is immense, and importance high, to a series we're fairly likely to get a sequel to at some point (Wii U please). Given the huge popularity it makes little to no sense to make her an AT over a playable character, especially with Magnus, Pyrrhon or possibly Eggplant Wizard all being fantastic AT options. Palutena would likely be playable or part of Pit's FS... and the leak says it's the former.

I leave a small chance because we never do know, but she's ridiculously likely in my books, and I still don't believe 3DS ATs will have outlines either, we just don't have proof.


Want: 100%

Death from above light magic user. Sound Awesome!


Prediction: 0.01%
Screw it, I'm crazy, but someone's going to give them a not quite impossible score.



Hero of Light*5

 

[cephalopod17]

Nightmare: Both 0.
He's a fighting game character and I prefer Pac-Man as my Namco rep.

Palutena
Chance: 65%
I think she is likely. Leak aside, she is popular and has moveset potential. However, Kid Icarus is still a small series, only having three games and might not get another game for a while.

Want: 98%
At first, I didn't like Kid Icarus: Uprising because of the controls. Despite this, I retried it last year, and I loved it. It's full of good characters including Palutena. I would welcome any KI character.

Yarne and Owain Tagteam : .001%

Nominations: Gangplank Galleon x5

 

[Knight Dude]

A little disappointed some people here aren't familiar with Soul Calibur. It's a good fighting game series. Other than that, Yeah, no real way he's getting in to this series.

 

[bloodbuzzed]

Nightmare
Chances: 0%
- He would totally clash with everything that is Smash
Want: 0%
- I am a diehard fan of Soul Calibur II and III but I would not want any rep (not even Talim<3) in Smash

Palutena
Chances: 94%
- What's been said that hasn't been already? Just do it for us Sakurai
Want: 100%
- Most wanted newcomer at Goddess status

Predicted the duo at: 0.06%

Noms:
Leon 5x

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Well I haven't been here in a long time!
I hope you guys didn't do some of my favorite characters while I was gone!

Since I know nothing about nightmare, I'll skip onto Palutena:

Prediction: 90%- She is likely. She just is. I don't know why, but she is practically shoe-in.

Want: 99%- This is actually very hard to say. I don't think Palutena could bring a new Playstyle to the table (though I am not discussing this herec I have had enough arguments about it), though I want her a lot, only because I want the translator leak to be true,
Because FAWFUL ASSIST!


Nomination: x5 Rhythm Wrestler and a tag-team between him and the Rhythm Reporter, unless we did them recently.
If they were already done recently, then x5 revisit Fawful.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Nomination: x5 Rhythm Wrestler and a tag-team between him and the Rhythm Reporter, unless we did them recently.
If they were already done recently, then x5 revisit Fawful.

Well, you got bad timing buddy.

Rhythm Wrestler was voted on yesterday.

We didn't do a tag team with him and reporter though I guess.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Well, you got bad timing buddy.

Rhythm Wrestler was voted on yesterday.

We didn't do a tag team with him and reporter though I guess.

Then revisiting Fawful.

 

[Louie G.]

NIGHTMARE:

Chance: 0%
Yeah, not going to happen. Pac-Man or bust.

Want: 5%
I guess he'd be okay.

PALUTENA:

Chance: 90%
Let me explain.
Even before the leak came into play, I was extremely positive about Palutena's inclusion. She was a shoo-in in my eyes, only slightly behind Mewtwo and Little Mac. After the leak, my opinion hasn't changed in the slightest. Well that's a lie, now Palutena is even MORE likely than before. Kid Icarus Uprising was an amazing game that earned much critical acclaim and was extremely successful in sales as well. Not to mention a certain Mashahiro Sakurai was the creator of the game. So I am very confident in a Kid Icarus newcomer, and personally I don't see any other choice than Palutena. Medusa's importance was basically thrown out the window. Hades, Magnus, Dark Pit, and the rest are all one-shots at the moment. This leaves Palutena as the best option for a Kid Icarus newcomer, and obviously most people have already picked up on this. Now another reason I consider Palutena very likely is not just the leak, but the attention that Sakurai HIMSELF is giving said leak. The day after the leak was shown, Sakurai reveals a picture of Viridi as a stage hazard. Within the next week, Sakurai shows off TWO MORE pictures pertaining to Kid Icarus, one featuring a statue of the goddess, not even mentioning her by name (Palutena = Ridley?). I don't think this is a coincidence at all. Either Sakurai knows about the leak and is playing games with us, a Palutena reveal is right around the corner, or both. My bet's on both. What also helps is that Palutena is a very popular choice in both Japan AND the West, which makes me positive that Sakurai has at least considered Palutena as a serious contender. Not to mention the fact that Sakurai jumped straight from Uprising to SSB4. What game do you think was on his mind when choosing characters for SSB4? Bingo, it's Kid Icarus Uprising. Palutena is also a unique female character, two things that certainly help in character selection. So personally Palutena is one of the characters that I would be genuinely surprised not to see in the next Smash Bros.

Want: 100%
Palutena is not only my favorite Kid Icarus character, but one of my favorite video game characters of all time. Her likable and quirky personality really makes you fall in love with the character.

Spoiler

It's arguable that I mean that in the literal sense...

Yarne and Owain Prediction: 0%
Playing this one safe.

Noms: Super Mario 3D World Stage x5
I see that @ Glaciacott is nominating Bowser Land. Maybe we can cooperate and just nominate a stage in general...

And for everyone saying that Kid Icarus is too small to get another character...
If MOTHER of all series can get two characters, a series largely ignored by Nintendo that hasn't had a game in quite a while, then Kid Icarus can WITHOUT QUESTION.

 

[Arcanir]

Abstaining for Nightmare

Palutena
Chances: 90% The leak is definitely notable but that's not primarily why I'm giving her a small boost. Along with her previous good points already stated, Kid Icarus is getting quite a bit of attention from Sakurai and she's a character very wanted in the fanbase, I can easily see her getting in.
Want: 95% Definitely one of the characters I'd love to see get in.

 

[Glaciacott]

I feel like if more people played Kid Icarus Uprising, Palutena's want would swell considerably.

Hades's would explode.

Noms: Super Mario 3D World Stage x5
I see that @ Glaciacott is nominating Bowser Land. Maybe we can cooperate and just nominate a stage in general...

Sure, I'd be cool with that.

 

[McDuckletts]

Nightmare
Chance/Want: 0%
Ineligible. And besides, if I wanted to play as him in a fighting game, then I'd play SC.

Best KI waifu Palutena!
Chance:89%
Disregarding the pretty believable leaks, Palutena's got a really great shot at being a playable in this game. She's popular, she's important in the plot of KI:U, and Sakurai is making this game. She's no shoe-in, though.
Want: 80%
She's one of my more wanted newcomers, but is somewhat far from being my most wanted overall.

Yarne+Owain prediction: 0.12%

Nom: PT Pokemon (no trainer) X5

 

[Morbi]

Palutena Chance: 80%
Palutena Want: 100%

 

[The Suit-less Ace]

I have migrated to this thread.
Anyway....

Nightmare's chance: 0% That's not gonna happen.

Palutena's chance as of now in my opinion: 85%. I think they'll lead up to it eventually, if not..... oh well. If there's more Kid Icarus pictures in the Pic of the Day, she'll probably be revealed soon.

Chances of me wanting her?: 100% You know what Dr. Eggman says......

 

[NickerBocker]

Nightmare

Chance: 0%
No fighting game characters, and 3rd party

Want: 50%
Re enactment of Soul Caliber 2 moments between Link and Nightmare.

Palutena

Chance: 65%
Shes had a good chance since the beginning as the next KI character. Im pretty neutral about the leak, while it does look very believable, there have been a lot of "leaks" so im going to remain skeptic. Her chance basically comes down to whether or not there will be an additional KI character included.

Want: 95%
One of my most highly anticipated newcomers.

Yarne & Owain: 0.09%

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x5

 

[UltimateWario]

Yeah, Nightmare, sure whatever. None and none.

Palutena

95% for inclusion. If we get a new KI rep (and we likely will), like it or not, it's going to be her.

Like 10% or so for want. I didn't care for her character, as I didn't care for the vast majority of the characterization within Uprising, save a few gems like Thanatos or Pittoo. I also don't find her particularly interesting, as the "magical princess-type" trope is getting to be about as common as swordsmen, and there's much less to differentiate between styles of magical princesses than there are between swordsmen. Oh yeah, she has a stick and a shield. Whoopee.

But I know quite a few people want her, and it wouldn't really kill me if she was added, so whatever. Just so long as Sakurai starts showing some stuff to get me actually interested in this game.

 

[Louie G.]

Just so long as Sakurai starts showing some stuff to get me actually interested in this game.

How hasn't Sakurai hooked you by now?
Honestly, from the moment I saw the words SUPER MARIO in the original Smash 4 trailer, I was hyped out of my mind.
Mega Man was icing on the cake. And that icing was delicious.

 

[UltimateWario]

How hasn't Sakurai hooked you by now?
Honestly, from the moment I saw the words SUPER MARIO in the original Smash 4 trailer, I was hyped out of my mind.
Mega Man was icing on the cake. And that icing was delicious.

First of all, a Smash's roster makes the game for me. That takes precedent above all else, because while stages and features (and even the game mechanics and physics) are important, they're still only situations in which you place the allotted characters.

I've never been a Megaman fan, beyond a mild interest in the X series when I was younger, that has long since passed. If I want to be Mario, Samus, Link, etc., I'll play older Smash games or Project M. Villager's kinda neat, I guess, but I really like the Animal Crossing games for everything but the character you play as. Wii Fit Trainer is nifty, too, I guess, but I'm not super impressed. Rosalina fails to interest me, as well.

While new, unique movesets are great and all, I'm still not a fan of any of the characters we've been shown. Above all, when choosing characters to play as, I choose characters that I love and already have a connection with. While my main reasons for supporting a character like Ridley are because of his unique play possibilities and how much he deserves to be in, it's also because I have a huge personal connection with the character.

Beyond Samus, I'm not seeing that in SSB4's roster, and even then, she's in all of them. I don't have to buy SSB4 to play as her. Odds are, Wario is going to be "WarioWare the Character" rather than actually Wario again, so any interest in him is immediately dampened, although he's a lock for returning, and that's something, at least.

I'm just hoping Sakurai starts revealing characters that I can enjoy, and not ones that I simply have to live with.

 

[Glaciacott]

Isn't the "Magical Princess" type really just Zelda and extremely recent newcomer Rosalina? And even then those two characters are wildly different ... Unless I'm forgetting someone, I don't see the trope here.

 

[Chandeelure]

Isn't the "Magical Princess" type really just Zelda and extremely recent newcomer Rosalina? And even then those two characters are wildly different ... Unless I'm forgetting someone, I don't see the trope here.

I think Peach is magical too, normal people can't float in the air or create hearts of energy

 

[UltimateWario]

Isn't the "Magical Princess" type really just Zelda and extremely recent newcomer Rosalina? And even then those two characters are wildly different ... Unless I'm forgetting someone, I don't see the trope here.

Peach, Zelda, and Rosalina all have similar "pretty princess" designs and use magic to some extent. Palutena also has a very "pretty princess"-esque design, and would also use magic. I wouldn't mind so many pretty princesses if one of them was like a brawler or something. Peach is the closest to that category, but she still slaps and hits people with frying pans and her ass. Like, seriously, Peach's ass is one of her primary weapons.

If there's one thing that's trite to me, it's slender girly-girls who use some sort of supernatural means to fight. Much as Zero Suit Samus's somewhat blatant sexuality annoys me, it's nice that there's a woman in the cast who doesn't have to rely on anything but her own strength to fight. I suppose my problem isn't that there are so many princess-type characters, but the fact that, besides Samus and WFT, that's all that we have as a far as women.

Oh, and Sheik, I guess. It's really not so bad when I think about it, it's probably because we've gotten Zelda, Rosalina, and now perhaps Palutena all right in a row.

 

[Glaciacott]

Peach, Zelda, and Rosalina all have similar "pretty princess" designs and use magic to some extent. Palutena also has a very "pretty princess"-esque design, and would also use magic. I wouldn't mind so many pretty princesses if one of them was like a brawler or something. Peach is the closest to that category, but she still slaps and hits people with frying pans and her ***. Like, seriously, Peach's *** is one of her primary weapons.

If there's one thing that's trite to me, it's slender girly-girls who use some sort of supernatural means to fight. Much as Zero Suit Samus's somewhat blatant sexuality annoys me, it's nice that there's a woman in the cast who doesn't have to rely on anything but her own strength to fight. I suppose my problem isn't that there are so many princess-type characters, but the fact that, besides Samus and WFT, that's all that we have as a far as women.

Oh, and Sheik, I guess. It's really not so bad when I think about it, it's probably because we've gotten Zelda, Rosalina, and now perhaps Palutena all right in a row.

I guess I can see your point, and yea, it is sad that so much of Nintendo's history is women that were simply to be rescued and to look pretty. But at the least with Rosalina and Palutena we have women who are clearly more powerful than the male protagonist, and in terms of playstyle they have particular quirks that are sure to keep the playstyle varied (Rosalina being a puppetteer and Palutena probably relying on traps and space control.)

But yea, I guess I'm biased in the sense that I'm ok with girly-girls since the alternative bad-ass women from most other games just winds up peeving me much more. Mostly, like you say, from hyper-sexualization.

In any case, I guess this is unrelated to the thread ... but hey, if there's a place to find out about someone's want for a particular character ... why not here?

 

[UltimateWario]

Mostly, like you say, from hyper-sexualization.

Which is why I much prefer when she stays inside the suit. <3

But, as you said, this is pretty off-topic, so... -zips lips-

 

[Pacack]

I guess I can see your point, and yea, it is sad that so much of Nintendo's history is women that were simply to be rescued and to look pretty. But at the least with Rosalina and Palutena we have women who are clearly more powerful than the male protagonist, and in terms of playstyle they have particular quirks that are sure to keep the playstyle varied (Rosalina being a puppetteer and Palutena probably relying on traps and space control.)

But yea, I guess I'm biased in the sense that I'm ok with girly-girls since the alternative bad-*** women from most other games just winds up peeving me much more. Mostly, like you say, from hyper-sexualization.

In any case, I guess this is unrelated to the thread ... but hey, if there's a place to find out about someone's want for a particular character ... why not here?

I don't want to draw this out too much longer, but I want to say that, honestly, Palutena really isn't just a girly girl (nor is Zelda). She's shown to be a very compassionate, caring, and almost motherly person, while still being able to see the light () at the end of the tunnel and joke around with Pit and be silly sometimes. She's also shown to be very independent most of the time, save for

Spoiler

when she's under the control of the Chaos Kin and needs Pit to save her.

She's also shown to be a very intelligent and powerful woman; the leader of an army (albeit, a bit of an incompetent one, Pit excluded) and a powerful mage with powers fitting of a Goddess. She has much more depth than the cookie-cutter, girly-girl Princess Peach.

 

[Glaciacott]

OH, I definitely agree with that, it's why she's hands down my favorite Nintendo character right now (ignoring certain pokemon, I suppose). I love how around a time when the whole feminism debate was raging about how women were poorly represented in games, Nintendo released Kid Icarus Uprising, featuring as a co-protagonist a female character who bossed the guy around, saved him countless times, and constantly mocked and played around with him just to tease around.

I'm kind of hoping Zelda at some point also gets out of her damsel role a lot more ... it's sad that she only gets to be cool as Sheik/Tetra.

BUT WAIT! Why are we talking about this now?

LUCARIO IS BACK!
What did we predict?
Lucario (Pokemon): DAY 77: 81.90% chance, 72.36% want); DAY 20: (65.42% chance, 68.71% want)

Let's be grateful for that re-rate ... it got us closer to accurately predicting Lucario's return. Even if his want had waned by about 4%.

 

[Pacack]

OH, I definitely agree with that, it's why she's hands down my favorite Nintendo character right now (ignoring certain pokemon, I suppose). I love how around a time when the whole feminism debate was raging about how women were poorly represented in games, Nintendo released Kid Icarus Uprising, featuring as a co-protagonist a female character who bossed the guy around, saved him countless times, and constantly mocked and played around with him just to tease around.

I'm kind of hoping Zelda at some point also gets out of her damsel role a lot more ... it's sad that she only gets to be cool as Sheik/Tetra.

BUT WAIT! Why are we talking about this now?

LUCARIO IS BACK!
What did we predict?
Lucario (Pokemon): DAY 77: 81.90% chance, 72.36% want); DAY 20: (65.42% chance, 68.71% want)

Let's be grateful for that re-rate ... it got us closer to accurately predicting Lucario's return. Even if his want had waned by about 4%.

Zelda also has a bit more depth than Peach, but not much. She's shown to be a very powerful, intelligent woman as well, but she's normally defeated by Ganondorf and doesn't really get the chance to shine. Something I'm personally hoping we'll see more of in Zelda U, along with Pig Ganon as the antagonist rather than Ganondorf.

And we predicted well!

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Lucario is BACK!!! YES!!!

And with that, everyone I've ever mained in Brawl has returned! On top of that, Megaman joins the fight! Palutena can only make things better!

Speaking of whom, I haven't actually played Kid Icarus Uprising. However, from what little I've seen of Palutena, she seems like a fun character who could add something to the roster that isn't there yet, hence my 90% want rating. And also, she was pretty funny in some of the trailers.