Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[OcarinaOfDoom]

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Lucario Chances: 83% So, we know Sakurai doesn't want to cut many veterans... but we also know due to time he may end up cutting a few. So let's say he ends up cutting 3. Thus if Lucario's chances were the same as everyone else he would have a likelihood of 1-(3/35). However he is more likely to get the axe then others if for no other reason then being a Pokemon (who isn't Jiggs or Pikachu) and they tend to be flavor of the week type deals. Also something about not being as popular now as he was then blah blah blah. So let's be a bit pessimistic and say that doubles his chances of getting the chopping block to 6/35. Thus his chances of getting in are 1-(6/35). Or 83% (when rounded).

Yeah yeah, I know I'm cheating a bit as quite a few vets have already been confirmed, but whatever I think I was pesimistic enough in plenty of other regards. Honestly, there is a decent chance of no cuts.

Lucario Want: 90% He's not my most wanted veteran but he was a great unique addition. And unlike IC, G&W, and ROB (who all sport unique play-styles) I actually enjoy playing as Lucario.

Ice Climbers: 85% No chance of them being cut, but some people are going to look far too much into that whole technical difficulties thing.

Nominations:
Geno x5

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Lucario

Prediction? 95%

He's pretty popular and should be considered back.


Want 100%
My main in Brawl beside Marth and Fox. I don't see why he won't return unless it was due to timing. He's still gonna be the only non-gen 1 Pokemon if Mewtwo returns and I'd like to see it stay that way. People saying he's most likely to be cut or "flavor of the month" needs to just stop. Lucario is original and isn't gonna get replaced


Ice Climbers 89%

Nomination
Vaati x5

 

[---]

Lucario - 87%
Want - 100%
+ One of the most recognizable Pokemon
+ Was well received
+ Still had plenty of appearances in Gen 5
+ Popular
+ Has a much better resume than his competition bar Mewtwo, which is arguably, as competition, rendered void due to:
+ 5 (8) Pokemon characters are a great bet this time around

 

[Erimir]

Lucario

Popularity: Still decently popular.

Relevancy: He's a Smash veteran. That automatically makes him relevant, IMO. He seems reasonably relevant to the games still, although obviously no longer the flavor-of-the-year.

Design: We've seen his move set, it's fine, even compared to Mewtwo.

Sakurai factors: We know he doesn't have a plan to cut anybody yet, and when he said that they probably had already a clear idea of what the roster would be. If he was planning to cut Lucario for Zoroark or another Pokemon, I would hope he would've hedged that statement more to avoid disappointment given what he said about cuts being agonizing. Which means that probably nobody gets cut unless it's because of time constraints. Which just means whoever would be 5th or 6th on the priority list would be in the most danger. A newcomer is not necessarily going to be higher on the priority list, as we saw with the Forbidden 7.

But time constraint cuts seem less likely because of what he's said about story mode getting less prominence and a larger team, so I think all or almost all Brawl veterans will return. Lucario would be one of the more likely cuts though.

Roster & Competition: I don't see them adding more than one new Pokemon slot, given that Pokemon already have 4 select screen slots and 6 move sets (the most of any series). There are plenty of other existing and new series that deserve new reps before Pokemon goes to 6 slots. But 5 slots is quite likely. If Sakurai plans on including two new Pokemon slots, then there's a decent chance one of them could be left out for time constraints (any non-Pikachu Pokemon is in at least some danger in that case IMO) since the 6th Pokemon slot would be low priority.

Given Sakurai's comments, we can assume Lucario is on the priority list. The question is who would be the 6th priority Pokemon and whether there would be a 6th priority Pokemon. The question is then Zoroark/Genesect/etc. vs. Lucario. The Pokemon developers and movies also seem to have more power in who makes an appearance, so they may want Lucario to be lower priority in favor of Zoroark or whoever because of Lucario being less recent, however.

Since I see Lucario fulfilling the same role of flavor-of-the-year legendary, I see Lucario as the most likely cut if one of those gets in. They also have a similar feel to me (Pokemon that are trying to be bad-ass), while Pikachu, Jigglypuff and PT really represent the heart of the series more and have more classic designs. Legendaries are prominent in the games and especially movies, but most of your time in Pokemon involves playing with normal, cutesy ones. In a 4 slot situation, they could have two legendaries and two cute ones, but in a 5 slot situation, three legendaries vs. two cute ones doesn't represent the series well IMO.

Lucario chances: 88%
Pokemon will probably end up with 5 character slots on the select screen. It possibly could get 6, although I think it's unlikely. Most likely Mewtwo will be returning. That means in order for Lucario to get cut, Zoroark or Genesect or Victini or someone has to be added AND they have to put Lucario as the lowest priority AND need to cut characters for time.

All in all, the fact that Sakurai's not planning on cutting anybody yet, Lucario isn't the only Pokemon who could get cut, and they won't necessarily be adding Zoroark or what have you means that Lucario has a lot of outs and no single Pokemon veteran is in huge danger IMO. There's still the possibility that Lucario is lower priority than the other Pokemon and gets cut for time constraints.

Lucario want: 35%
I don't really like Lucario or other flavor-of-the-week legendaries (as I said, they're trying to be bad-ass but failing because they're still Pokemon). Pokemon is about cute animals, trying to make it about bad-ass godly beasts is meh. I also am meh on him as a character in Brawl. Pikachu and Jigglypuff are the only two Pokemon I definitely want to see return, and Pokemon Trainer is a neater concept than Lucario or others.

I'm fairly indifferent to Lucario vs. Zoroark or other new Pokemon. I don't really like the way Lucario looks but the other ones suggested aren't really any better IMO. The only reason I support Lucario over them is that cut veterans cause more butthurt than missed Pokemon newcomers. By the time Smash 6 is a thing, if Zoroark didn't get in, people will have moved on from Zoroark to a new flavor-of-the-anime, but if Lucario is cut, Brawl Lucario mains will still be whining about how Sakurai has to bring him back just like Mewtwo and Roy are now.

Ice Climbers prediction: 96%
Some people are going to give them lower ratings because they think the 3DS is gonna get them cut for technical limitations, so it won't be 100%. I don't think many people think they're going to be cut for any other reason.

Nominations:
5x Jigglypuff

 

[woopyfrood]

Has a much better resume than his competition bar Mewtwo

Hahahah, das a good joke right dere.

Lucario: 50%

He has a largely original moveset and a sizable fanbase. However, precedent has shown that Lucario is likely to be replaced. It all depends on priority, and if Sakurai is willing to let the Pokemon pool of reps expand and expand.

Want: 20%

Before Brawl, I was indifferent about him. After Brawl, I actively despised him. I wouldn't get choked up over his departure, but I still hate to see a character get cut.

 

[AfricanSanta]

Lucario- likelihood- 70%- There's other people that are more 'deserving' of a cut than him. He's still a very popular Pokemon.

Lucario- want- 70%- I see no reason why he couldn't stay. Idk why people say they should cut Lucario for the newest 'flavor of the month' (Zorark/Genesect) when Gen 1 has 5 reps. If any Pokemon reps should go it should be the Pokemon Trainer.

Ice Climbers Prediction: 78%- They should have no reason to go any lower.

Nominations:
Dillon x5

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Likelyhood: 55%: This is one of the toughest calls. Pokemon characters are without a doubt the hardest to predict. If pokemon gets moved to 5 slots, he will more than likely get in, but if it doesnt, he will probably get replaced. I see the pokemon roster being, pikachu, jiggs, lucario, zoroark, Mewtwo. But if it has only 4 reps either him or zoroark is getting the boot. and if pokemon trainer is back, well then hes in trouble

Want 70%: Ive always liked him, but i lean towards newcomers, and if him getting in means zoroark or mewtwo wont, then id rather not see him

Ice climbers: 95%

Nominations: Bomberman x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Lucario: 80%
Sakurai stated that he hasn't cut anyone yet but if he is does decide to cut someone, he's near the top of the list.

Want: 100% No cuts. Plus, he freaking Lucario dam*it.

Ice Climbers: 90%

Nominations:
3x Toad
2x Vaati

 

[Alban712]

Lucario:
Likelihood: 45%
Want: 60%

Ice Climbers: 88,7%

Nomination:
Lucas x 5

 

[SpaceJell0]

Meh, don't want to comment on Lucario as much since my opinion on him is this: I love Lucario as a FIGHTING-type not a no-contact semi-psychic fighter. He should hit harder and then I'll accept him, I was really disappointed with Brawl Lucario. Either fix him or make him a Pokemon mascot and not just the Gen IV favorite. But I still love him as a Pokemon, just not a Smasher. *my opinion
Prediction: 40%
Want: 50% *see above

Ice Climbers: 85% Don't really buy the whole 3DS limitation thing, Sakurai loves 'em so he's going to try as hard as he can to fit them back in.

Nominations: x5 Starfy

 

[---]

Hahahah, das a good joke right dere.

As I'm also a Zoroark fan, I wish it was.

 

[MargnetMan23]

As I'm also a Zoroark fan, I wish it was.

Yeah... I honestly don't see Zoroark making it with 6th gen in mind but *shrugs*

Oh well... I can say that none of the pokemon that have been smash characters so far are close to my list of favorite pokemon but then again I'm the hipster fan, no I don't like charizard, I don't think an orange overweight dragon is that creative/cool but do you know what I do like? Freakin' Scolipede, Omastar, Hitmonlee, Hypno, Quagsire, Wailord, Sableye, Aggron, and Eelektross *crickets* oh well **** you guys! And I don't think trubbish is lame and I don't think basing pokemon off of inanimate objects is automatically lame! OK I'll stop now. But seriously, the thing about pokemon reps is that they can get overcrowded but considering the vastness of them 4-6 reps allowed is actually kind of limiting. A lot of those pokemon I listed could make really fun to play and unique characters.

 

[Swift Fox]

However, precedent has shown that Lucario is likely to be replaced.

Typical patternist.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Zoroark has a fun move set in mind when you set aside the "6th gen" excuse.

 

[woopyfrood]

Typical patternist.

You can't deny that Lucario runs a very real risk of being cut.

 

[Opossum]

You can't deny that Lucario runs a very real risk of being cut.

Sure you can. There's really no reason at all to cut him.

 

[Swift Fox]

You can't deny that Lucario runs a very real risk of being cut.

What's the big idea? Oh, are you Mewtwo elitist jerk? Oh yeah... So typical.

 

[woopyfrood]

What's the big idea? Oh, are you Mewtwo elitist jerk? Oh yeah... So typical.

What? I may not like Lucario, but I'm not saying that he's at risk because I dislike him. Preferably, I don't want anybody to get cut. Why are you pulling the fanboy card when this has nothing to do with--

Oh, ho ho ho. I get it. You're kidding with me. You got me.

 

[Swift Fox]

What? I may not like Lucario, but I'm not saying that he's at risk because I dislike him. Preferably, I don't want anybody to get cut. Why are you pulling the fanboy card when this has nothing to do with--

Oh, ho ho ho. I get it. You're kidding with me. You got me.

Whoa whoa I saw Mewtwo in your main list and I've seen many negative responses against Lucario and most of them are Mewtwo fans (typically), so I thought you would be one of them.

 

[DMurr]

From what I can make of everything Sakurai has said about the roster, he has no plans to cut any of the characters. If he was planning to repeat Brawl with Lucario getting in before Mewtwo, I would think he would give somewhat of a warning, as others are saying. It sounds like priority is on adding and refining existing characters at this point for Smash 4.

Chances: 90%
Want: 80%

Nominate x5 Lyn

 

[Erimir]

You can barely make a point off the precedent of 64 > Melee > Brawl (two sequels).

Making a precedent off of Melee > Brawl is not much to go on.

Only one Smash game has cuts in it (Brawl). Four out of the five characters cut were clones. So clones being in more danger of being cut is a strong precedent. But those weren't just clones, they also weren't super important characters either (Dr. Mario and Pichu especially). Toon Link can be seen as representing Young Link in a way anyhow. Only Roy is decently important, but he's from a series where most of the characters don't recur, thus making it so he's also not more important than other options.

Only one non-clone has ever been cut, and that's Mewtwo. There's no reason to assume that Sakurai has demonstrated any sort of pattern with that cut. They just ran out of time.

While I agree that Lucario is among the top five most likely to be cut, it's not because of precedent. It's because of the criteria for inclusion as explained by Sakurai. Lucario just has less going for him. Mewtwo being cut before doesn't mean that it's a pattern that they'll replace Pokemon in each installment.

It might mean that Lucario will be lower priority than any Pokemon newcomers. I find that quite possible. But that will only be relevant if they run out of time.

ETA: Can the Fire Emblem people please switch to nominating other characters so that we don't have any more Fire Emblem characters up for rating for like a week? Is it urgent that we shoot down all your minor FE characters in quick succession?

 

[woopyfrood]

Whoa whoa I saw Mewtwo in your main list and I've seen many negative responses against Lucario and most of them are Mewtwo fans (typically), so I thought you would be one of them.

I was, at one point. But the whole fanwar thing is less important now. I know what you're thinking: "But if Lucario has a chance of being cut, and Mewtwo has a chance to return, why are you saying it isn't important?"

Because I know how you feel. If someone had told me during the age of Melee that Mewtwo would be cut in the next Smash Bros, I wouldn't have believed him.

Even if I think Lucario serving as Mewtwo's replacement is unjust, seeing Lucario be cut himself is no better. It would be a repeat of misfortune and, unlike some, I don't get off on schadenfreude. Mewtwo and Lucario are in the same boat.

However, Lucario isn't in the safe zone with the likes of some of the other Brawl newcomers. Sakurai cannot cut any of the current Pokemon reps without facing major fan outrage, and similarly he cannot exclude Mewtwo without facing major fan outrage. It seems like simply adding a fifth slot for Pokemon reps is the obvious choice, but it isn't that simple. Roster size, available time, available manpower, and possible higher-priority newcomers are all pressuring Sakurai to make cuts, which he has admitted he is going to be forced to make.

I'm just warning you. Having your expectations be let down hurts more when you are so faithfully sure of something. I'm confident Mewtwo will return because I've been teased with the possibility. Inversely, I was confident Mewtwo would be in Brawl because I had no idea he was at risk of being cut. If I had come to terms with the possibility beforehand, perhaps I wouldn't have taken the results so hard.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Lucario: 83%
He's got a good shot at returning with no real points against him.

Brawl Pokemon + Mewtwo/Newtwo seems like the best way to go and among the most likely.

Want: 100%
No Cuts. Plus Lucario is badass. Just fix his face.... It looked ugly in Brawl.

Ice Climbers Prediction: 67%
Smashboards will give them high scores while GameFAQs will give them low ones...

That's a pattern you can spot, not this Melee to Brawl crap.

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x3
Jigglypuff
Ike

 

[FalKoopa]

Ah, Lucario...

Likelihood: 80%
There is a chance that he'll be cut, but it's a low one. He's unique, is still promoted, is still popular. Sakurai seems to be re-using the Brawl models for some characters (most notably Link and Fox), so they might re-use his Brawl model.

The only way he will be cut is lack of time.

Want: 100%
No cuts please. And he should not become fuel for the patternists.

Ice Climbers:
Prediction 90%

Nominations: Lyn x 5

 

[Fastblade5035]

Lucario: 89%
Still popular, unique, etc. Really, I see no good reason for him being cut unless there are time constraints, but that's extremely unlikely.

Want: 100%
Its mother****ing Lucario.


Ice Grabbers: 56%

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Lucario:

Likelihood: 45% - I don't think that Mewtwo necessarily invalidates Lucario, however, Lucario is probably one of the characters scrapping the bottom of the priority list for veterans. Despite him being unique he really wouldn't be as hard to replace as Lucas or Wolf for example, out of sheer importance not only to their series, but to a Nintendo All-Stars game in general.

Want: 40% - I don't really like playing the guy, and I don't really fancy him in the Pokémon games either. If we could do with no cuts, then I'd put a 100% in want, but as it stands now cuts are inevitable, and he'd be one of the characters the easiest to let go of for me. However, if he gets in I'll still be happy for his fans.

Ice Climbers Prediction: 81%

Nominations:
5x Ike

 

[Gam3rALO]

Lucario!(i can't write much now)
92%: popular, Sakurai doesn't want to cut any character.
Want: 94%
No cuts please!
Prediction for Ice climbers: 87.64%
I'm taking a new route for my noms
Nominations
Sylveon x5 (represents they new type introduced 'Fairy')

 

[TheMasonOrder]

Lucario's likelihood: 65%

Want: 80% Not a fan of Pokemon, but I hate cuts.

Ice Climbers: 90.53%

Nominations:
Eirika 3x
Tharja 2x

 

[FalKoopa]

Lucina (Fire Emblem) x5

Lucina is already over.

 

[Xhampi]

Lucario
Likeliness: 90%
I see no reason to cut him, even now, before the start of gen 6, the guy is still very poppular.

Want: 64%
I don't like Lucario but II think that cutting him will be just as unfair as Mewtwo getting cut in Brawl. That and even if it's my favorite generation I don't want a gen 1 only pokemon roster, just give us Brawl roster + Mewtwo.

Prediction
Ice Climbers : 92%

Nomination :
Genesect X5

 

[sunfallSeraph]

Chances: 50% It all comes down to how much the devs believe in the permeability of the Pokemon slots. If they want fresh reps, Lucario or Pokemon Trainer will likely be the ones to go.

Want: 10% I'll take him over Pokemon Trainer, but otherwise I couldn't care less. I just didn't enjoy playing as him in Brawl, and I was never really impressed with the whole aura mechanic. I'm ready to see someone new repping this franchise.

Ice Climbers Prediction : 86%

Nomination :
Zoroark X5

 

[Reznor]

Lucario

Chance: 55%
he is likely but not too likely

Want: 40%
I really don't care about this guy

Ice Climbers Prediction: 95%

Nomination:
Waluigi x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Sakurai says he hasn't rmoved any characters so far, so based on that he's gotta have a high chance.

Chance: 78%
If time squeeze hits I think he's a good chance of removal, but I think he's fairly high on the lower tier of inclusion.

Want: 60%
He's a fun character to play, but as a (huge) Pokémon fan I think it's his time to move on.

Ice climbers: 96.72%


Slime *5 (I'll get him up there soon)

 

[Reznor]

Sakurai says he hasn't rmoved any characters so far, so based on that he's gotta have a high chance.

could mean he hasn't removed any one from the current roster not the brawl roster but he still has a chance

 

[BlitznBurst]

likeliness: 90%. Sakurai has already expressed the fact that there are no plans to cut any specific characters, and I think Lucario is popular enough to be considered a priority. The only thing holding him back is the possibility that Sakurai might want a new Pokémon rep (Most likely Mewtwo) but feels that the series has enough representation, in which case it's a choice between Mewtwo and Lucario. Even then it's unlikely he'll be cut.

Want: 80%. Lucario is pretty cool.

Ice Climbers prediction: 90%. The Ice Climbers are already confirmed to be in development right now, and Olimar's appearance has shown that they've gotten past whatever problems they were facing with the Ice Climbers. I'm giving it a ninety because I really don't want to overestimate the Smash fandom, particularly the GameFAQS one.

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Typical patternist.

What are you saying?

It's all about the patterns man! In the original smash there were 2 characters whose name started with L. In Melee there were 3 (Young Link's name is still just Link). In Brawl there were 4. Don't you see man? There will clearly be 5 such characters in SSB4. L name characters aren't that common, so since they need to increase that number instead of decrease it, they can't cut Lucario. Also, Lyn (Fire Emblem) confirmed for SSB4!

 

[Keto]

Lucario: 50% (Yeah I'm original)

Want: 25% (I'd rather have Mewtwo)

IC: 92.45%

Sandbag x5

 

[Pazzo.]

Lucario: 60%. I don't think that Sakurai would keep him in, there are more relevant Humanoid Pokemon.

Want: 70%. I kinda like the art and style of Lucario. He's fun to have around, but If he gets in the way of more relevant Pokemon, cut'em.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Lucario prediction - 65%

I think if any past fighters will be cut, Lucario will probably be one of the first to be cut. That said it's still in with a shot....the very fact he was in brawl means he has already proved his (her?) worth. Still I feel Mewtwo might give him some difficulty.

Want - 70%

Lucario is pretty cool but I wouldn't be sad to see him go if it meant we got a 5th or 6th gen representative. If it came down to Lucario or Mewtwo I would most likely go for Mewtwo.

Ice Climbers prediction - 96%

They're unique and although they're harder to implement I can't see Sakurai getting rid of the Ice Climbers.

Nominations:
Chibi Robo X3
Robin (Awakening) X2