Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Smasher 101]

Ephraim's chances: 1% - Don't see it happening.
Want: 30% - Eh.

Wonder Red prediction: 9.64%

Andy x5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Ephraim: .01%
Want: 30%
Wonder Red: 101% 13.25%
Nominate:
Yarne x 4
Ridley x 1

 

[Pacack]

Ephraim:

Chance: .5%
Not likely. Been too long since his game's been out, and has far too much competition in the form of...everyone else. Only a .5 chance because the Ambassador Program made his a tiny bit more relevant again.

Want: 40%
I would like him, but I don't want everyone else upset and I don't like the idea of it happening since he's far past his prime.

Wonder Red Prediction: 15%
No idea what'll happen, but I doubt he's got much support. Too new for his own good, and his game fell short of their expectations.

Nominate:
Daitoryo x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

You can get Sacred Stones through the Ambassador Program? Too bad for me, because I broke my 3DS as soon as the program started, now it doesn't recognize me as an ambassador anymore. I would've loved to play Sacred Stones. ;-;

 

[Pacack]

You can get Sacred Stones through the Ambassador Program? Too bad for me, because I broke my 3DS as soon as the program started, now it doesn't recognize me as an ambassador anymore. I would've loved to play Sacred Stones. ;-;

It was actually my first FE game. Got me into the series. Brilliant move on Nintendo's part to do that. Probably increased Awakening's sales by doing that.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Ephraim: 0%. For one, he's overrated, he's not a main character, and I frankly doubt we'll get anyone other than maybe Chrom. And it's been too long since his game.

Want: 0%. No more FE other than Marth/Ike/Roy/Chrom.

Wonder Red Prediction: 10%.

nominations:
Sora x5

 

[Erimir]

Ephraim

I dunno much about this guy other than he was a lead character and he uses a lance. He doesn't have the buzz though, and most people overrate. So my feeling is that I should simply rate a similar number but a little lower.

Ephraim chances: 3%

Ephraim want: 45%
Higher than other FE lords because at least he uses a spear and isn't just more of the same. Also his hair isn't even blue!

Wonder Red prediction: 5%
I dunno. People's predictions are higher, but people have overestimated in the past and I don't really have a good idea of what people think about him.

Nominations:
Sheik x5

 

[Gingerbread Man]

he's not a main character

But...
He is a main character.

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Ephraim: 1.25%
Unlike Marth or Ike, Ephraim was a major character in only one Fire Emblem game, which is at this point far from being the most recent entry in the series.

Want: 22%
As someone else said, the idea of Spears in Smash Bros. is intriguing, though there are better potential Fire Emblem reps that wield lances, such as the Awakening lords.

Wonder Red prediction: 8.59%

Nominate:
Bowser Jr. x2
Lucina x3

 

[Opossum]

Ephraim

I dunno much about this guy other than he was a lead character and he uses a sword. H

Ephraim actually uses a lance.

Ephraim time!

Chance: 0.03%

Not gonna sugarcoat is. Cool as he is, Ephraim isn't happening.

Want:10%
He could be cool.


Predicting a 5.67% for Wonder Red

Nominating Sheik x5

 

[Hank Hill]

Chance: <1%

Want: 45% Ephraim would be badass to play as, but very unlikely especially considering there is no reason for him to be picked over in favor of other, more crucial characters to the Fire Emblem Series.

Wonder Red Prediction: 2%

 

[Gam3rALO]

Ephiram:
Chance: 1%

Want: 1%

Prediction for Wonder Red: 7.73%

Nominations:
Mewtwo x5

 

[SchAlternate]

Ephraim
Likelihood: 0.5% - He's not going to take the place of absolutely no one more worthy of a third Fire Emblem slot.
Want: 15% - As much as I freaking love Sacred Stones, and how much I adore Ephraim, I really don't want him over anyone more worthy of the spot. Specifically a certain boy that has earned special place of my heart... (nohomo)

Viewtiful Jo- I mean, Wonder Red
Prediction: 8.43% - I DON'T KNOW!

Nominations
Seeing how well Sukapon is faring, I'll just give him 1 nomination, just for good luck~
Zero (Mega Man) x4

 

[Zhadgon]

Ephraim

Chance: 10.1% maybe Sakurai is looking more into the series to get a more unique character that can use a different weapon, but the chances are that Sakurai will ask again to IS in who will be a great character to put in to the new Smash.

Want: 70% I think most of the people will throw away the character like nothing but if by any miracle he is included into the game he will be accepted with time and maybe get a nice following behind (like Ness, Ice Climbers, Mr. G&W, R.O.B.). I think that Fire Emblem with Marth represents "technique" and with Ike "power", a nice third rep could be Ephraim with his lance representing "space control" but if we ever get a character that can use a spear/staff/lance/naginata/bo probably will be Krystal or Bandana Dee first.

Wonder Red

Prediction: 7.77%

Nomination

Donbe and Hikari x 5

.n_n.

 

[Glaciacott]

Ephraim
Chance - 1%
I really like Ephraim and his game, but the chance is just waaay too small. For various reasons:
- He wasn't even the lone main character in his game, sharing the spotlight of the game with Eirika. Then it'd just beg the question, why not Eirika?
- He wasn't a main contender even for Brawl which was closer to the release of his game. Lyn and Ike, featuring in games before and after Sacred Stones, were both much more popular and both actually appeared. With Awakening so huge right now, there's no way a Sacred Stones character would enter over a character from Awakening, and it becomes even more absurd when you consider that Roy and Ike are also in the competition.
- Really the only reason he's desired in Smash over other lords in the fact he uses a Lance, but with that in mind ... Why not Hector and then we get an axe user? Or if you really really want lances, Bandana Dee is easily more likely.

Want - 30%
I like Fire Emblem characters so I wouldn't complain. But if I were given the option of a Sacred Stones character, I'd really just prefer Lyon or Joshua over him. You know, assuming we're living the fantasy of a Sacred Stones character making it in the game. Fantasy aside, I very much prefer Chrom, Lucina, Robin, Anna, Chrom/Lucina ... and so on.

Prediction
Wonder Red - 8.36%
Some will see him as extremely unlikely due to being too recent and not really that successful, while others will argue that recency and being a new Nintendo character give him a solid chance.

Nominations
x10 Rhythm Monkey
Yay extra nominations! Time to go further little monkey!

 

[Toxicroaker]

Ephraim: 0.8%
Want: 15%

Wonder Red: 4.8%

x5 Chancellor Cole

My job is never over without something to dance listen to
Ephraim: Sacred Stones - Main Theme, and The Final Battle

 

[NickerBocker]

Ephraim: 0.5%
Want: 10%
Theres alot more FE characters that come before him. A LOT.

Wonder Red: 2.3%

Nominations:
4 DKC characters x5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Ephraim

Chance: 2% - I doubt anyone from FE not named Marth, Ike, Roy, Chrom, Lucina, Robin, Anna, or Lyn is getting in as a playable. And even a few of those are longshots.

Want: 30% - I'm not really interested.

Wonder Red Prediction: 24% - Total blind guess.

Nominations:
Rhythm Monkey x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

So the day is finally here? Gotta feel sorry for Ephraim; pit to the post by Wolf, by Tom Nook and put back a few days by unforseen circumstances...and now his ratings aren't exactly positive.

Sadly, I'm not going to be the exception:

Ephraim
Chance: 0%
I'm sorry, but I can't see anyone outside the Smash vets(Marth, Roy, Ike, arguably Lyn due to Assist Trophy), Awakening's cast(Chrom, Lucina, Robin) or an overarching character(Anna, Tiki) being a playable character. Even though spears/lances are cool; Chrom could technically be used for this(even though it's not his default weapon) and if a spear/lance character Bandanna Dee fills the role as Glaciacott suggested.

Want: 7%
Don't really want as I'd rather have a remastered Roy back or a magic using Robin as the third FE character.

Wonder Red Prediction: 10.8%?
As a member of a new franchise(or seemingly one Nintendo is pushing) Wonder Red has a lot in his favour, but I get the feeling most people are going to see him as too late coming to join in the Smash fun this time round.






Nominations:
Andy X 5

 

[jaytalks]

Ephraim:
Likelihood: 7%
Gets a slight bump for wielding a lance instead of a sword. But his chances seem slime. FE8 is the only game to not share its region with another game. Additionally, with both FE10 and FE13's characters. it seems like there is too much competitions to stand a chance.
Want:80%
Pretty cool character. I would want hector over him in terms of non-sword wielding lords, but Lyn over both of them. Micaiah over Lyn, and an Awakening rep before the other characters. If he doesn't get in, I hope we get The-Brave + the FE:SS Main theme in the game. My favorite intro in the series.

Wonder Red: 7.89%

Nominations:
Phoenix Wright x5

 

[XenothiumX]

Ephraim
Likelihood: 5%

Want: 5%

Wonder Red
Prediction: 5%

Nominations:
Majora's Mask Link x5

 

[DukeofShorts]

Ephraim chance: 4%
Only this high of a percent because he's a Nintendo character.

Ephraim want: 1%
I would rather have Seth, Gilliam, or even Myhrr over Ephraim.(those are all minor Sacred Stones characters if anyone was wondering)

Wonder Red prediction: 6.68%
Maybe as an assist trophy but low chance as a playable character.

Haven't decided my nominations yet…

 

[Erimir]

Ephraim actually uses a lance.

Yeah, I actually said he used a spear later in the post, I guess I was just thinking "not sword" and so I wrote "sword" or something like that.

You ever have that thing where you're typing and then someone talks to you and you just write whatever word it was they said instead of what you meant to type?

 

[PK_Wonder]

Ephraim - 5%
predict - 12%

Dark Samus x5

 

[Opossum]

Yeah, I actually said he used a spear later in the post, I guess I was just thinking "not sword" and so I wrote "sword" or something like that.

You ever have that thing where you're typing and then someone talks to you and you just write whatever word it was they said instead of what you meant to type?

Haha, all the time. Once it even happened on this rather important essay I had to write...

 

[colder_than_ice]

Ephraim
Chance: 0% - His best chance of being playable was back in Brawl when he was still relevant. He missed the train.
Want: 40% - I'm pretty indifferent.

Wonder Red prediction: 5%

Nominations: Aeron x5 (It's going to take forever to get him to the top, but I'm going to try.)

 

[Ephecus]

Ephraim

Chance: 0.5 %
- Shares the spotlight in his own game with Eirika
- Sacred Stones is hardly relevant anymore (besides being my second most favorite FE-entry)
- There is too much competition for another FE-spot

Want: 8 %
In my opinion Ephraim is the archetype of the generic lord despite having a lance.

Wonder Red Prediction: 10 %

Nominations:
C. Syrup x 5

 

[FalKoopa]

Ephraim:
Likelihood: 1%
He doesn't have a chance, really. FE will most likely get 3 or 4 characters, and he's behind Chrom, Roy, Lyn, Lucina and Robin. And he has competition from Eirika who has more of the screen-time in Sacred Stones. His only hope is that Sacred Stones got an ambassador re-release and he has potential to be unique, as he uses a lance.

Want: 30%
Not interested... sorry. He's not even in my wishlist for Fire Emblem (look at my signature below. )

Wonder Red prediction:12%
People seem to think he has a chance.

Fawful x 5

 

[Arcanir]

Ephraim
Chances-0.5% He's not very likely, he's competing with much more popular choices and him and his game doesn't garner that much interest.
Want-20% I like him, but he's not a character I really want to be in this game.

 

[waichingliu81]

Ephraim:

Likelihood - 0.1

as interesting a character he is, i just don't see him in smash bros. his son roy has a much better chance, even though it won't happen, to appear in smash 4 than his father.

Want - 5%

again, he's interesting but not a character i'd want in smash, especially of all the main fire emblem characters.

 

[DarkKry4]

Ephraim

Chance - 0%

Want - 0%

Wonder Red: 13%.

x5 Pauline (Donkey Kong)

 

[LoneKonWolf]

poor Ephraim, he spot stolen twice an is now being disregarded on he own day, oh well at least he helped wolf and tom nook days become humorous
any way. . . . .
Ephraim - 0.01%
he was a lord in a long past game, in a series that likes to refresh most of its cast, unless something comes up with Scared Stones his chances are dead
Want - 1%
just because I feel pity
Wonder Red - 11.78%
kind of a dark horse, most people know he's to recent to be in game, but there is always that chance
Nomination: No brawl cutsX5
I want this one rated badly

 

[Groose]

Ephraim: .01%
Nope. Not relevant, popular, or important to the series. Also, if Sakurai favors him, he has never made any indication of it.

Ephraim Want: 0%
The Sacred Stones is the only Fire Emblem game I've played. It was a pretty solid game... but I never felt attached to any of the characters. Ephraim was a bit more tolerable than most... and he may bring an interesting "long reach" type style to Smash... but I just don't want him.

Wonder Red Prediction: 8.54%
September's over. People have passed by him.

King K. Rool x5 ​

​

GROOSE IS BACK

DAY OVER! ​

 

[MargnetMan23]

Ephraim: 0.5% Characters from older games aren't happening unless your name is Marth, Ike, or Roy. Sorry Lyn fans =P
Want: 20% Would be higher if I actually played his game or whatever

WONDER EYESSSSSSSSSS RED!!!!!!: 8.5% Why if it isn't character that has a low to decent chance also known as WONDDDDDDDEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRR RED!

Omastar x3
Bulborb x2

EDIT: And the day was over right before I sent this. That's life =P You'll still count this right? =P

 

[Groose]

Ephraim (Fire Emblem)
1.73% chance
24.05% want

Thus ends the great RTC battle between Ephraim and Anna. The result? Anna was rated three days before Ephraim and scored 10% higher in chance and 20% higher in want. Game, set, match. Neither of them did especially great, however... so Ephraim is just the bigger of two losers!

Today we'll be rating a wonderful character. This guy is even more red than Mario! Please rate Wonder-Red in chance and want.

WARNING! CHALLENGER RE-APPROACHING! Today we'll be rating Lit---Oh.... looks like Ridley managed to beat the boxer out by one vote. Hard to believe that we haven't rated Ridley since the reveal of the Pyrosphere stage... but it's the truth. Please rate Ridley in chance and want. We'll rate Little Mac tomorrow, but please don't bother predicting his score; this is an awkward situation where two characters reached 100 revotes on the same day.

The one you should predict is Sukapon, who will enter the arena tomorrow. Will Sukapon have a chance? Please predict how he'll fare in tomorrow's game. Today's nomination winner is none other than Gam3rALO. Enjoy the extra five.

EDIT: And the day was over right before I sent this. That's life =P You'll still count this right? =P

Nominations and prediction, yes. Ratings, unfortunately not. I've already computed them.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Wonder Red Chance: 8.74%
Wonder Red Want: 50%
Sukapon Prediction: 7.5%
Nominations:
Dr. Kawashima x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Wow, the Ridley re-voting will be interesting. Can't imagine he'll get a higher score than before since some people probably still believe that he's a stage hazard, even if he hasn't been shown after 10 or so Pyrosphere pictures, but whatever. I'll chime in after I get some sleep.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

This one should be rather interesting-

Wonder Red. Chance - 38% While it's true he could likely bring somthing new into Smash, I do have some doubts on him, his game being very recent and it being the first of what could eventually turn into a franchise doesn't exactly mean good things for him. At least unlike the case with Roy in Melee, Wonder Red's game has already been released.

Want - 60% He could be interesting.


Ridley. Chance - 83% I mostly base this off two things; one of these being that that multiple pictures of the Pyrosphere have been shown off so far, none of them showing anything significant in relation to the stage itself. We have seen no hazards of any sort, which suggests that the stage is neutral. We also saw a short clip of the stage at some point. It makes little sense to build up hype for a mere hazard, and wait so long to show it. The other factor is that Ridley is among the very few highly requested characters with great potential. Based on Brawl's inclusion of multiple highly requested, well known characters with potential, it is most likely that Smash 4 will include at least a few of the few remaining highly requested characters, and you can't count Ridley out yet given how many times the Pyrosphere has been shown.

Want - 100% He'd be extremely fun and interesting. No doubting that.

 

[Seraphim.]

Wonder Red

Chance: 7.5% I feel if he was going to be in he would have been revealed by now to save his game which I heard didn't do so well, but as Ike has shown us poor sales don't really matter.

Want: 50% Indifferent.

Ridley

Chance: 60% He could finally be playable or appear as a boss again.

Want: 60%

Sukapon: 5%

Chrom x 5

 

[Deleted member]

Wonder Red
Chance: 6%
I honestly believe that he does have a shot, but it's not tremendous in my opinion. Nintendo and Platinum Games have been promoting this game and... well... the sales weren't so wonderful. (that might change later on!) Wonder Red does meet at least some of the requirements for Smash as he would be a very unique addition and would have some decent moveset potential. He also does have his share of supporters as well. Kamiya and Sakurai have talked with each other before, but I am not going to take this as SSB4 stuff at all. While he does have a shot, he might be too recent to really consider him being in the match-up of the all-stars. I'm also confused about something... is he a Nintendo-owned character or is he owned by Platinum Games (aka, a 3rd party character)? Overall... he is a tricky character for me to predict, but he has a shot.
Want: 60%
He would be pretty cool to see on the roster as I would like to see what he would do. But, there are other characters that I rather have. I think he's more Assist Trophy material to be honest.

Little- RIDLEY?! WHAT?!
Chance: 50%
I don't think the Pyrosphere stage deconfirms him, but I think the vagueness of Sakurai's statement of an enemy from Samus' past appearing has left me questioning what he means. Is Ridley a stage hazard? Is he secretly on the roster? I'm pretty sure Ridley is in the game, but I dunno what Ridley's role really is (hazard, character, boss). So, I find this to be a coin toss now. However, his popularity and his fan demand still stands and is still going strong. I'm unsure what to really think to be honest. In regards to the stage hazard thing though, it seems pretty ridiculous if he was one. If the Pyrosphere is a lava stage like Brinstar and Norfair, then I don't think Ridley would be a hazard as well; that would be overkill if he was a hazard plus lava flowing everywhere.
Want: 60%
I would like to see Ridley on the roster and seeing him would be cool. However, I've lost interest in him over time. He deserves to be on the roster, but he's not a character that I really want.

Sukapon Prediction: 3.14%
No idea what to expect.

Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x (I'll focus on getting him to be rated. I don't think he will do great though... but hey, we've come this far.)