Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[SmashShadow]

Cloud: 1%
Want: 0% Cool character though. Just not for smash.

Black Shadow: 11.7%

Wolf x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Cloud
Chance: 0.1%
Want: 0%
...no

Black Shadow: 8.9%

Nominations: Anna x5

 

[Thor]

Cloud Strife? WHY?

If you're crossing FF, there are WAY better choices: Tidus if you're looking nostalgia (he's less gloomy, which fits Smash better), or maybe, I dunno, NOEL or LIGHTNING?!
He'd also be weird to build - he didn't even transition that well to FF Dissidia (all his movesets were either completely made up/slow and/or functional parodies of limit breaks - only Double Cut was a fast melee attack and still really predictable, sort of fixed in Dissidia Duodecim thanks to aerial double cut but this is all way besides the point).
Want: 10% (too high) - yeah it'd be nice, but... the others make more sense (if you can call it logic) and I would HATE for him to bump out Captain Falcon, Ness, Jigglypuff, or Marth (or even Snake).
I could see him functioning like an Ike clone, but then, well, I'd rather have actual Ike. Or actual Roy, or just not fake Cloud.

Cloud odds: .01% (because Sakurai could troll us all) (and I think it said hundreths place is fine).

Nominations: Didn't understand how this part worked in the rules, so none.

Irrelevant to forum so I'll probably get banned from this but whatever:
Tidus: .1% (because Sakurai could troll most of us)
Lightning/Noel: 1% (still HIGHLY unlikely - just better options for 3rd party characters in general)

Lloyd already showed up, so I missed that voting, but by comparison, I'd put odds of Lloyd being in vs Cloud being in at at least 20:1.

 

[Erimir]

At least we can agree that the music for Cloud would be good...
Obviously the FF7 overworld theme is a great one. And J-E-N-O-V-A. I like the Shinra theme and the City of the Ancients. I'm getting nostalgic just listening to these, oof!
Just to post a couple you may not have heard... fully orchestrated: Overworld theme
Versions by Nobuo Uematsu's band, the Black Mages: Those Who Fight Further (FF7 boss theme) and J-E-N-O-V-A
Not going to list One-Winged Angel.

Anyway...

Cloud

Popularity: Well, he's pretty popular as far as video game characters go. But not the most popular Square character for Smash fans, I'm guessing.

Relevancy: Technically he's eligible to appear. Other than that, Cloud has... yeah, not really almost any relevancy for Nintendo. More like the opposite, as mentioned above. He represents Final Fantasy's departure from Nintendo after 6 major entries.

Design: Yeah, this part would be fine. Not super different from, say, Isaac, but he has plenty of choices for moves.

Roster/Competition/Marketing: Yeah, not a lot of 3rd party slots, IMO. Square Enix seems unlikely to get a slot IMO since they don't have the best relationship with Nintendo and there probably isn't a personal connection and/or desire to get them into Smash. But if Square were to get a character, let's do a quick analysis...

Final Fantasy: I think the only two categories that fit here are characters/creatures/classes that recur across the series and characters from games on Nintendo consoles.

Black Mage - one of the most ideal, since he fits well into the aesthetic, he's iconic and he would represent the first Final Fantasy game, which on the basis of Mega Man's design is probably a plus.
Moogle, Chocobo - cutesy mascot type characters fit into Smash well. Their moves would be less iconic than Black Mage's though (since Black Mage would be able to incorporate recurring FF spells).
FF 1-6: Cecil might have some fans, but meh. FF2 is not well known. FF3 has generic protags in the original version. Bartz is boring. 6 doesn't have as clear a protagonist as, say, FF4 or FF7, but Terra fits pretty well and would be interesting. So I guess it's mostly Cecil or Terra. Other FF6 characters like Locke and Celes aren't completely out there, but...

Honestly, I think it goes Black Mage >> Chocobo > Moogle > specific FF protagonist
Cloud might beat out Cecil and Terra on the basis of his star power.

Dragon Quest: Slime seems the most likely, as mentioned before.

Super Mario RPG: Geno or Mallow make more sense than Cloud.

Kingdom Hearts: Sora, obviously. But KH originated and still only gets main entries on the Playstation.

That pretty much covers the Square Enix characters IMO. Why pick Cloud? He doesn't represent Nintendo.

That said, a Final Fantasy character would help Smash sales the most. How much it would help Square Enix sales/Nintendo sales otherwise depends a bit on what Square Enix's plans are for Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest on 3DS/Wii U or what they might be willing to commit to. If I were Nintendo, I'd rather get Final Fantasy, but if they can only rely on Dragon Quest that might be a better choice.


Cloud chances: 0.3%
I don't think a Square Enix character is likely. If we were to get one, a Final Fantasy character would be much more likely than a Super Mario RPG character, and slightly more likely than Dragon Quest. But as far as FF characters go, there are others that make much more sense.

Cloud want: 25%
On the one hand... Cloud doesn't belong in Smash Brothers. He's like Snake, but even worse since he didn't even have significant entries on Nintendo consoles! On the other hand, unlike Snake, I do have a love and nostalgia for Final Fantasy 7. But to bring it back to the first point, that's an iconic Playstation experience! If I think about good times on the Playstation, you bet FF7 is one of the games I think of. And another thing is that while I love Final Fantasy 7 I don't actually love Cloud except as a representation of the game. He's not that interesting in himself. Now, you could say the same for Link, but Link doesn't try to be a real character. He's your avatar. You're Link, that's it. FF is more story-driven, and Cloud's story is certainly fleshed out, he's not merely the player's avatar - it's just that it didn't appeal to me.

All in all, I am opposed on principal but I have to admit I would get some pleasure out of playing as Cloud, so I can't wholeheartedly oppose him despite his total lack of deserving-ness.

Black Shadow prediction: 10%
I don't think he'll do as well as Samurai Goroh, but personally I think they're not that far off from each other (one is more popular in Japan, the other in the West).

Nominations:
Wolf x5

Time to just nominate veterans. When they're all done, I'll reevaluate.

Mallow X 5
I never understood why Geno got all the insane pointless fan following whilst the character with a personality got snubbed. Time to see just how disliked he is.

I've wondered that myself. I like Mallow better than Geno. He has more personality, Geno is a bit too robotic.

 

[Arcanir]

Chances-0% Of all the FF characters, he's not nearly that representative of Nintendo and there are much better candidates.
Want-His hair's a distraction, 0%

 

[Morbi]

Cloud Chance: 100%

I was looking around Google, mostly Youtube. I see a lot of requests for him. Sooooooo many people want him. Sakurai would be a stupid head if he didn't add Cloud.

Cloud Want: 100%

Who doesn't want a Final Fantasy 7 rep. It is only the best game ever made.

Black Shadow Predictions: 15%

 

[Kapus]

Ok, the only one of those examples up there besides Cloud that I hate is Sonic. I do not hate the character I just hate the aspect of them being in smash bros a Nintendo all stars game

He's just a guest. Sonic is pretty important to Nintendo's history, being Mario's biggest rival during the console wars.

Cloud
Chance: 0% Has absolutely no reason to be included. Would be more appropriate for Playstation All Stars.
Want: 0% Not interested.

 

[SchAlternate]

​

KAPUS WHERE'S THAT PICTURE YOU PROMISED YOU'D DO​

╯ಠ益ಠ╯​

​

​

lol/jk​

​

​

 

[Ephecus]

Cloud Strife

Chance: 0 %
He's the antithesis of a Nintendo-Allstars and would be a candidate for PSA-BR2 if anything.
If Square Enix wants to represent itself with a recent/popular FF-rep they'd go with Lightning.
If Square Enix wants to represent itself with a Nintendo-relevant FF-rep they'd go with Terra.
If Square Enix wants to represent itself with an actually representative rep they'd go with Slime.
I see no chance for Cloud.

Want: 0 %
He's my least liked FF-protagonist, sorry.

Prediction Black S. : 8.5 %

Nominations:
C. Syrup x 5

 

[djgeiger0620]

Cloud chances - 1%

Cloud want - 0% - Not because he isn't awesome, because he is! But I really don't want a character like Cloud in this game because he doesn't fit the SSB universe. As cool as it would be to play as him in a fighting game, I'd rather it be a different game.

Noms to Miles Prower x5

 

[NitrusVirus]

Cloud has absolutely no chance or business in Smash Bros. His chances are exactly 0%.

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Ok, I'll admit. We still have some interesting choices. Not likely ones, but interesting.

Cloud Strife

Chance: 0.001% - Everyone else has said why.

Want: 0% - I might be one of the few here who actually like Cloud. He was an epic character for sure. He's just not right for Smash, though.

Black Shadow Prediction: 12.50% - He's even less talked about than Samurai Goroh.

Nominations:
Fawful x5

 

[Groose]

Cloud Strife: 1%
Who knows... he may get "Snake Ruled" into Smash... but there's no evidence to believe it would happen.

Cloud Strife Want: 0%
Never a huge FF fan and certainly not of the newer games. He never really caught my eye as a character, either. His confirmation would pretty much end the extremely limited opportunities for other third-parties, such as Layton, Bomberman, and Belmont.

Black Shadow: 6.45%
Let's review Samurai Goroh's day, shall we?

But F-Zero is dead.

the fact that F-Zero is pretty much dead.

As F-Zero is kind of a dying (if not dead) series

Unfortunately, F-Zero is dying

F-Zero is dead.

Lets be honest here; F-Zero is dying.

I'm a huge F-Zero fan, but that doesn't change the obvious: F-Zero is dead.

considering the state of F-Zero, it's just ... well, sad.

MY...MY CHILDHOOD! THIS... THIS... UGGGHHHHH!​

Phoenix Wright x5
I believe in my client.

Day Over​

​

Groose is Loose​

 

[Groose]

Cloud Strife (Final Fantasy)
0.67% chance
7.75% want

Cloud set a new record low in want, but he did manage to edge out Sandbag and Primid in chance.

WHOOSH! Black Shadow has just rocketed into the arena! Does he have boost power, or will he lose the race to playability? Please rate Black Shadow in chance and want.

Tomorrow we shall rate a Chrom+Lucina tag team. Please predict how a Chrom and Lucina tag-team will fare in tomorrow's competition. Jaytalks wins five extra nominations. Smasher101, your complaint about the nominations yesterday has been noted. I am going to look into the matter when I have more time on my hands.

 

[SchAlternate]

Na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na BLACK SHADOW!
Likelihood: 20% - I forgot, is this about the same score I gave Goroh? 'K, I found my original post and I gave Goroh around 20%. Because really, both have about the same chance of getting in as the other. The thing is, the spot they fight for is quite unlikely.
Want: 20% - I'd personally go for Goroh.

Corn and Lettuce
Prediction: 7.8% - You may ask: is that what you really think they'll get? Well, to quote the Medic: "I HAVE NO IDEA!"

Nominations
Zero wing x2
HURRY BUDDY! I'M RUNNING OUT OF SUCKY PUNS! (Sukapon) x3

 

[MargnetMan23]

Black Shadow: 8% well it's not like he's more relevant then before... Also Goroh, he ACTUALLY has competition for that niche 2nd F-Zero rep.
Want: 55% I don't know much about him but he seems like he could be cool.
Chrom+Lucina: 2.86% Unfortunately this is just an idealized concept that we pulled out of our ass

Oh **** I forgot my nomz
Omastar x3
Bulborb x2

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Black Shadow: 5%
Want: 2%
Fem!Marth and Corn: 4%
Nominate:
Yarne x 4
Ridley x 1

 

[BluePikmin11]

Black Shadow Prediction: 35% Has a chance, but unlikely to be chosen.
Black Shadow Want: 1% Never played an F-Zero game.
Chrom+Lucina Prediction: 17.5% I think people might be underrating. Because I think the two most popular lords can end up being a tag team.
Nominations:
Dr. Kawashima x5 (Yeah I totally wanna see how he does in predictions now)

 

[Deleted member]

Black Shadow
Chance: 28%
Poor Black Shadow and poor Goroh. They are competing for a spot that most likely doesn't exist at all. However, he is at least viable. First off, Black Shadow plays a major role in F-Zero as the main villain of the series and he is quite popular. One thing that does give Black Shadow an edge over Goroh is that Black Shadow is quite popular in Japan. In fact, he is one of the most requested characters in Japan. However, the main issue is... well... F-Zero being pretty much dead (sorry Groose!). There is at least some hope for Black Shadow as he could inherit Ganondorf's current moveset while Ganondorf can get de-cloned. Besides, I bet cloning wouldn't take much time from the developers. Overall, Black Shadow is one of the more viable characters that could be in SSB4, but I see that being highly unlikely.
Want: 70%
I rather have Goroh, but this Batman on steroids is pretty cool. And if he getting in the roster means de-cloning Ganondorf, then I'm game! Besides, we all know Ganondorf needs his own moveset at last. Also, admit it, even if you don't want him in the game, I bet you want to re-create this:

Chrom & Lucina Prediction: 5.98%
It seems unlikely that we will get both Chrom & Lucina to be one character in my eyes.
Nominations: Little Mac 3x, Captain Rainbow 2x

 

[Smasher 101]

Alrighty, thank you.

Black Shadow's chances: 20% - An F-Zero rep still isn't the most likely thing in the world...but I think Black Shadow has a slightly better chance at the slot than Goroh does.
Want: 75% - I'd rather have Goroh, but I'd be fine with Shadow.

Chrom/Lucina prediction: 6.15%

Andy x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Black Shadow:

Chance: 25%
So, I gave him 15% way back in the days of Goroh, but my opinions have changed... mainly because of how quickly we've been getting character reveals since... The game seems to be further into development that I previously though, and without SSE and a late minute 3rd party (unless I win the lottery and buy out Rare ltd. of course) I see more characters getting in for the series revival role than I did back in Goroh's day, that said it doesn't effect Goroh as his inclusion would be more of a 'F-Zero needs a second rep' inclusion than the far more popular (in Japan, where the games are made and brade broken) Black Shadow who's reasoning would be more of a 'let's bring back F-Zero'. He's still not highly likely, and I feel Takamaru if the front runner for a series revival, but Shadow has his worth, and has the immense Seiyuu popularity that would bring more hype to smash...

Want: 100%
Who doesn't want to Falcon Punch Black Shadow in Smash Bros.? Especially if they can get Meaning of the Truth, for an F-Zero stage theme... If they can get that combination it would rank second (to Slime) in the patented Cheezey Bites hype-o-meter.


Father and Daughter against the world!: 7%
FE characters in smash are destined to be male swordsman, with primary coloured hair... as awesome as the dual lords would be, the Ice Climber difficulties and the departure from standard FE fare is highly unlikely.


Knuckles*5
(Unlike sonic he don't chuckle)

 

[SmashShadow]

Black Shadow: 18%
He's pretty on par with Goroh if not slightly behind and the franchise is the most underrepresented. F-Zero is on the decline not having a new game since 2004. That's about to be 10 years. Not to mention that it's been 3 games already and we haven't seen a rep. It doesn't help that they have no moveset for which to get people hype from.

Want: 30% While Captain Falcon is glorious, I rather prefer my characters to have moves from their games translate over to Smash.

Chrom and Lucina: 7.2%

5x Wolf

 

[BlitznBurst]

OH BOY A CHARACTER I ACTUALLY CARE ABOUTand he has pretty much no chance

God dammit, guys ;_;

Black Shadow chances: 5%. Yeah. F-Zero is dead. The franchise has pretty much been left to die and even ****ing Mario Kart takes priority over it. The only chance an F-Zero rep has at all is if Sakurai thinks the series is still well-known enough to get more representation despite its complete lack of relevancy to modern day Nintendo but at this point the series is still lucky to have Captain Falcon. If he weren't in the original 12 I'd honestly be questioning his chances, let alone Black Shadow's or Samurai Goroh's.

Want: 70%. ;_;

Chrom and Lucina prediction: 5%

why

Wonder Red X5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Black Shadow: 3%
F-Zero doesn't really need more than one rep, considering the nature and number of games in the series.

Want: 25%
Some have suggested that Black Shadow could be given Ganondorf's moveset, leaving Ganondorf open to having abilities unique from those used by Falcon.

Chrom & Lucina: 1.85%

Nominate:
Klonoa x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Black Shadow:

Chance: 7%
Seems like Black Shadow and Samurai Goroh are the only viable choices for smash. I could see BS getting in as a semi-clone last minute, but thats his best chance.

Want: 20%
Would be cool to have some new F zero characters

Chrom-Lucina: 0.4%

Nominations:
Anna x5

 

[Louie G.]

BLACK SHADOW:

Chance: 10%
Definitely a decent chance. Probably not happening, but he's got a shot.

Want: 25%
I'm indifferent, but he'd be a cool replacement for Falcondorf.

Chrom and Lucina: 2%
No.

Nominations:
Wolf x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Black Shadow: 14%

• Popularity +3%

In Japan he is kind of popular

• Uniqueness +5%

He could easily be extremely unique while not being to far off.

• Representation +6%

He could easily be the best representative of his series, a series from the original ten series that still has only one rep, and he only has competition from one character, Samaria Goroh.

Want: 50% I am not swayed either way.

Chrom + Lucina: 0.9% Who even dreamed this up?

x5 Chancellor Cole

 

[Gam3rALO]

Black Shadow:
Chance: 5%
F-Zero is dead other than the Nintendo Land mini game.

Want: 10%
Pretty cool, actually...

Prediction for Lucina and Chrom: 4.55%

Nominations
Master Hand x5 ( I will be giving him a hand the next month or two)

 

[jaytalks]

Black Shadow:
I'm currently reevaluating my thinking so there might be a steep drop for some characters
Chances: 8%
Not really seeing a pressing need for the character. Not every series has villains, and even then, he just doesn't stand out that much in terms of design. Looks like a giant black lobster or something to me.
Want: 1%
Not really looking for another F-Zero character.

Some music:
GX Main Theme
Black Shadow Theme

Chrom and Lucina: 3.44% The Ice Climbers' AI problems seem to have temped down any expectations for these characters, but with the pair up mechanic from Awakening, it just seems like a natural choice for me.

Nominations:
I'm proud of RTC and Smashboards correctly rating down Cloud.
Ephraim x 10

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Black Shadow chance=2.5% Most people on here have no concept of probability.

Black Shadow want=1% Only gave him 1 instead of 0 because his inclusion would make Ganondorf more likely to get de-cloned.

prediction=?? what is a tag-team? will edit if/when someone explains it to me.

Nomination=5xNeku and Shiki

Also, even if you don't like Cloud, if you don't think his inclusion would create a massive amount of hype, then you're an idiot.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

double post

 

[Deleted member]

prediction=?? what is a tag-team? will edit if/when someone explains it to me.

A tag-team is pretty much 2 characters in one. The Ice Climbers are a perfect example of a tag-team. So, you are predicting how well Chrom & Lucina will do together as one character slot.

 

[Toxicroaker]

More music :D (all of these are real)
Cloud: Trail of Blood
Lucario: D/P Gym Leader Battle
Bowser Jr.: Bowser Jr. Battle (Paper Mario: Sticker Star), Bowser Jr. Battle 2 (Party 9), and Bowser Jr.'s Mad (Party 9)
Kamek: Kamek's Theme SNES (Yoshi's Island DS)
And I will do one for every character I missed
Palutena: Uprising - Boss Theme 2
Ice Climbers: Stage Theme (NES)
Bomberman: Super Bomberman - Boss Music

 

[Glaciacott]

Black Shadow
Chance - 7.5%
I don't see it happening, but out of all the F-Zero reps he has one of the most tangible chances. Somewhat behind Goroh (can't remember how I rated him), but still fairly likely.
At least compared to that string of impossible characters we were having.

Want - 40%
I like the idea of him getting the ganondorf move so that ganondorf can actually be unique now. But aside from that, I really do not care for this character much.

Prediction
Chrom and Lucina - 4.56%
It's an interesting suggestion and makes sense in the context of Awakening. But I don't think too many people will jump at the idea.

Nominations
x5 Rhythm Monkey

 

[Sid-cada]

Black Shadow

Chance - 0.5% - A very mild chance to popularity and the old "take Gannon's moves" approach. Not very good otherwise, and I'd say Goroh has the better shot.

Want - 30% - I'd be happier with Gannon having a mix of new movies and his current move set. I'm not too thrilled about any prospect of him.


Chrom and Lucina Prediction - 17% - Some support, but the difficulties of the 3DS system will bring them down.

Nominations
Ephraim X2
Anna X2
Dark Matter X1

 

[colder_than_ice]

Black Shadow
Chance: 14% - He's certainly in the realm of possibility, unlike most of the characters that we rated recently.
Want: 17% - I always found him to be a pretty generic villain.

Chrom and Lucina team prediction: 7%

Nominations: Wonder Red x5.

 

[Deleted member]

Oh, Groose, you MUST include these tracks for Black Shadow's day:
Mute City (GX)
Devil's Call in Your Heart (X)
Climb Up and Get the Last Chance! (X)
Port Town (X)
Phantom Road (GX)
Lightning (GX)
Vegas Palace (GX)
The Meaning of Truth (Anime)
Black Shadow's Theme (GX)
And include this for irony if you want...
F-Zero GX Story Mode Credits

 

[Golden Icarus]

*sigh* I wish I was here when Goroh was being rated, so I could justify the living crap out of him, but I guess I'm stuck with Batman.
Black Shadow
Chance 13%
Now I'm not one of those people who thinks F-Zero is dead, but it's lack of recent releases will hurt his chances. But the big thing that brings down Shadow's score is Goroh. Let's be honest, Goroh's more important, more iconic, more recurring, has more moveset potential, has had more appearances in Smash, and is more popular (at least in the West). The only good reason to add in Black Shadow instead is because he has more Eastern popularity, and if it wasn't for that I would hardly even consider him.
Want 50%
I'd prefer Goroh, but I wouldn't be too upset if Black Shadow took his spot.
Chrom/Lucina Prediction 5%? (I'm not really sure what to expect)
Nomination
Excitebiker x3
Ray x2

 

[Zhadgon]

Black Shadow
Likelihood: 20% maybe if Sakurai is thinking in adding one more rep for F-Zero, Black Shadow would be one of the top two contenders and if by the time Sakurai is in a hurry maybe he can give Black Shadow the current moveset of Ganondorf (obviously decloning first Ganondorf).
Want: 45%, I don´t know much of F-Zero, I have play it a few times, but the characters are pretty interesting and I could see at least in some form to be fun to play.

Chrom/Lucina: 70% Interesting, Sakurai has been playing with the duo idea since Melee development (not only with the Ice Climbers but with Pulsle and Minun, and in Brawl with Diddy and Dixie) so the idea isn´t as crazy as it sounds maybe a big possibility.

Nomination:
Donbe and Hikari x 5

.n_n.

 

[Starcutter]

BLACK "BATMAN" SHADOW 30% It's generous, but whatever
Want: 90% I want him specifically for that falcon punch video (posted above) and so he could take ganondorf's f-zero moveset so ganon would have some uniqueness.

Chrom x Lucina: 2% apart, they are stronger then together. talk about backwards.

Noms
Lucario x4
amaterasu (Okami) (man this is going to be a pain to type out every day)