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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Rockaphin

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Isabelle:
Chance: 2%
Very doubtful, especially since Tom Nook exists. I doubt AC will get another rep in this game.
Want: 6%
I prefer Tom Nook, and I didn't care too much for Isabelle. LET ME PUT MY CRAP WHERE I WANT TO PUT IT, SCREW THE ROCK :mad:

>10% Playable:
Chance: 20%
Want: 100% or 50%
Depends, I think Paper Mario was rated below 10% in chance so if that's true then yeah, 100%.
If not, than 50%. There's other characters that were rated below 10% that I still want.

Predictions:
Hero of light: 0.21%
Captain Rainbow: 9.8%

Nominations:
Tom Nook X5
 

Cheezey Bites

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5x All Popular Newcomer Candidates
Nominations:
x5 All Popular Newcomer Candidates.
Just wanna ask now before we all get confused, but how do you define popular? If you look at Miiverse, here and the general internet different names get banded about, and even then is popularity how much you want them? 'cos if so our list has Banjo and Kazooie on it...

If we're talking most likely we don't need to rate that as we can work that out statistically given the results we have?

I'm just really cunfused what you're asking to be rated?
 
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loganhogan

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 22, 2011
Messages
816
Isabelle
chance 5%
A second Animal Crossing character could happen but it's doubtful. Isabelle is very popular no doubt but still competes against Tom Nook.
want 25% I'd rather see her trophy or assist trophy than playable, I like her but not for newcomer.

<10% newcomer
chance 50%
Yes I can actually see it happening, need I remind you Wii Fit Trainer would have scored below 10%.
want 100%

predict 0.5% and 6.56%

x1 Barbara the Bat
x1 Jill Dozer
x1 Dr. Wright
x2 Dr. Lobe
 
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colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
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Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
Happy Mask Salesman has been added to the popularity chart and finished 102nd. The idea of a top 10 RTC character becoming an assist trophy is the 17th most wanted concept.

Isabelle
Chance: 0% - There's no reason for her to be playable.
Want: 0% - One AC reps enough, thanks.

<10% character becomes playable
Chance: 50% - It's a coin flip, but if Wii Fit Trainer can make it in (who probably would have scored less than 5%) than anyone can. Here are some of the <10% characters that I feel deserve higher:

Ghirahim - One of the most requested Zelda newcomers.
Hades - Well received villain and second most likely Kid Icarus newcomer.
Isa - I'm standing by my view that he has a slightly better chance than Saki.
Meowth - Sure he may only be popular from the anime, but he's a huge fan favorite and that's really all that matters.
Genesect - Another very popular Pokemon pick.
Paper Mario - Popular character that is easy to animate.
Chrom + Lucina - Dark horse candidate. Would be the ideal way to get two popular FE reps in while solving the uniqueness problem.

Want: 70% - it's always amusing to see how wrong we can be when rating someone.

Hero of Light prediction: 1.7%
Captain Rainbow prediction: 7%

Nominations: Shepard x5
 
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BluePikmin11

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Just wanna ask now before we all get confused, but how do you define popular? If you look at Miiverse, here and the general internet different names get banded about, and even then is popularity how much you want them? 'cos if so our list has Banjo and Kazooie on it...

If we're talking most likely we don't need to rate that as we can work that out statistically given the results we have?

I'm just really cunfused what you're asking to be rated?
Popular Newcomer Candidates as in all the characters that are popular like Isaac, Chrom, Robin, Waddle Dee, Toon Zelda all the newcomers that are usually in lots of prediction rosters in Smashboards.
 

NickerBocker

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Isabelle
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Not likely, becasue Tom Nook is a thing, and AC doesn't really need another rep.

<10% playable
Chance: 60%
Want: 50%

Considering we have had Villager, who had virtually no chance as far as we knew due to Sakurais statement, WFT, who would have been laughed at pre e3, and Rosalina who was disregarded when compared to the other Mario characters, id say its likely. Out of all the possible choices, there has to be at least one that will be a surprise. Also, consider that Sakurai wants to revive an existing franchise through this game, any retro besides Takamaru would pretty much fill that role. Among these reasons I believe another borderline WTF character will happen.

Hero of Light: 3.5%
Captain Rainbow: 5%

Nominations:
Lupus x5
 

Glaciacott

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Isabelle
Chance - 0.5%
Want - 0%

Pretty much disconfirmed and a poor choice for a very unlikely AC second rep.

<10% playable
Chance - 25%
There' a good number of characters in there that I think are much more likely to appear than we seem to think ...

Want - 100%
And those characters are characters I would enjoy to see happening, for the most part.
Ghirahim is a fantastic new type of Zelda villain and it would be great if he keeps reappearing in future installments. Somehow. His popularity is high, movesets are easy, and Sakurai is crazy enough to include him over the likes of Tingle, Impa and Vaati who are more recurring.
Blaziken is an extremely underrated potential Pokemon representative, and the main thing standing in his way is Pokemon ideally only getting veterans + Mewtwo. But if there's a new pokemon rep, Blaziken is definitely extremely likely.
And then there's Rhythm Heaven. Some of its characters are down there in the below 10% purgatory and I believe they are far more likely. But, at the least Karate Joe and the concept of a character are higher. So I suppose it's more ok for this one.
And these are just the ones I find more likely than the rating they have. There's also a host of other characters in this purgatory (Hades, for example) who I would LOVE to have in playable form if it were to happen. So yea, the want reaches a 100%, easily.

Predictions
Hero of Light - 0.41%
Captain Rainbow - 7.2%
I can see captain rainbow increasingly considerably for some people because of Big Mac.

Nominations
While I have all of these (woohoo!!!) I think I'll begin raising a character who I feel should be away from non-rated obscurity
x20 Prince Fluff
 

YoshiandToad

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Remember the magical Sakurai rule that a new series doesn't get more than one character, unless that series's name is Fire Emblem.
Or Mario or Pokemon in Smash 64.

I'm back from my stag, and dammit I missed out on the RTC being an AT after I was the one who suggested the concept in the first place.

Isabelle
Chance: 5%
Popular enough choice in a popular game series, but Nook comes first if there's a secondary AC character(outside a female alt obviously)

Want: 20%
I'm in the minority that feels like Animal Crossing is a big enough series to deserve a second rep, but I'd lean more Nook's way than this super popular newbie, just because of his larger impact on the series as a whole. I'd admittedly pick Isabelle over Resetti or K.K. Rider, as I just feel she's both a better fit and has the popularity on her side.

>10% Chance as a character
Chance: 25%
Andy from Advance Wars is rated with less than Ten. He's clearly the most likely Advance Wars rep, SHOULD we get one.
Also for every Reggie or obscure 3rd party we get there's several pretty deserving characters with such low scores; Toad, Meowth, Vaati, etc. However, despite their impacts upon their individual series, they are still seen as unlikely due to having been brushed over in past games where they would of been perfectly acceptable newcomers.

Want: 95%
Toad, Meowth, Andy, Vaati, Captain Syrup, Bomberman, Rayman, Wonder Red, Captain Rainbow...
There are plenty of low rated chancers amongst the dross that I'd consider worthwhile character additions and honestly prefer to a lot of the high rankers. In fact any of the above characters getting on is pretty much instant hype for me, and would get me a lot more pumped than our current newcomer selection.

The downside is whilst the above characters are all in the less than 10% likely grouping so are more (objectively) pointless additions like Princess Daisy, Ninten, Dark Pit, Blazikn, Louie and Alph, who whilst not being terrible would not probably be more than a straight up clone.

Worst yet we get the weirder suggestions like Stork, Dr. Kawashima, Reggie, Scrooge McDuck, Omastar and Yarne and Owain tagteam. I'd pretty much hate all of these(except the last which is too ridiculous to hate in my eyes).

Still if Sakurai WAS including a >10% chancer, it's most likely either going to be from list 1(aka; the YoshiandToad personal Hype Train list) or at worst list 2(aka; the cloney but I guess acceptable characters list) and highly unlikely to be from list 3 which is something the majority of sensible people should be hoping to avoid altogether.

Predictions:
Hero of Light: 0.4%
Nope.

Captain Rainbow: 14%
Seems to be a cult character amongst Nintendo fans(and the Japanese do seem to know Mac more from Rainbow than from Punch Out!!) and that trophy....

Nominations:
5x All Popular Newcomer Candidates
 
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Groose

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The update will be tomorrow. I do have some time this evening, however, and will be trying to fix the results section.

Also, time is running out to suggest new features for the new thread! Please send your ideas in as soon as you can!
 

TCT~Phantom

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We should at the end of the week vote Best post, and the user gets 5 noms?
That's all I got.

Isabelle
0/0
>10%
60/60

lazy
nomination Lucas (The Wizard) x5
 
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Gunla

wow, gaming!
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We should at the end of the week vote Best post, and the user gets 5 noms?
That's all I got.
That could be possibly broken. I'd just churn out a logic bullet each week :awesome: and simply dominate every pole for a nomination monopoly!
(Though that's a cool idea.)
 
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Watta92

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Because I was lurking around this thread for a little while it is only logical to write my very first post in here!.

Isabelle: Chance 3%, I don't know if we get a second AC character in this smash edition ( I think smash 5 would be more logical) and I think that Tom Nook is more deserving if you look at the franchise as a whole, but Isabelle makes for a good dark horse contender with MR Resetti and KK Rider among others for the second rep ( if we get one) .
Want: 5% I Think that I would want other franchises to get some more characters and some new franchises to get into smash before I want a second AC character, Villager is a good embodiment for what AC stands for, Maybe in smash 5 .

<10%

Chance: 25%
First I should take a look at the list...there are some reasonable characters on there. namely Andy from advance wars and wonder red as the big front runner of their respective franchise and some fan favourites like meowth ( mostly from the anime) toad ( which probably wouldn't make it ) and Vaati hmm I think I will give it 25% because Sakurai has surprised us before and these characters aren't that farfetched to make it either, of course for every toad there is a scrooge mcduck so uhm not every character would be plausible.

want: 80%

Some really deserve to be in smash in my opinion namely the few I named in the chance part but others... not so much ( looking at you omastar haha) SO if lets say Andy makes it I am more than happy:)

Predictions

Hero of light 0.24
great..

Captain rainbow 14.6

increase of the score because of the fat mac trophy I think

I don't really now who of what to nominate...
 
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Aqua Rock X

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ISABELLE

Chance: .6% - It could be a remote possibility if she were popular enough.

Want: 50% - Woof!

RTCR <10% CAAPC

Chance: 40% - It could happen.

Want: 50% - Eh.

Hero of Light Prediction: .54 - ???

Captain Rainbow prediction: 5% - We will see.

Nominations
Lip x5
 

KingofPhantoms

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Isabelle - 0%

Pretty much disconfirmed.

Want - 60%

Could be pretty fun after seeing a moveset in her support thread.

<10% Chance Character becoming playable - 35%

Wouldn't be too surprised to see at least one of them, like Andy. Some more or less than others of course.

Want - 50%

Depends on the character.

Hero of Light Prediction - 0.12% Who even is this?

Captain Rainbow Prediction - 10.16%

Spyro x5
 

Spears In Smash Bros.

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Isabelle: 2%
Isabelle has gotten pretty popular, and Nintendo seems to be aware of the fact, but Animal Crossing doesn't exactly need another new rep, especially one introduced so recently.
On the other hand, Roy.

Want: 22.5%
Doesn't really bring enough to the table to justify being playable in my eyes. Maybe she could replace Dr. Wright.

<10% Character Playable: 89%
Have you seen how many characters fall under that category? A lot of them would make pretty decent fighters, plus you know Sakurai likes to be unpredictable.

Want: 100%
Together, these guys are pretty hit or miss, but a lot of them would certainly be welcome additions. In fact, almost all of the characters I've nominated have gotten less than 10% chance.

Nominate:
Multiple >10% Chance Characters are Playable x5
 

McDuckletts

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Isabelle
Chance/Want: 0%
Already deconfirmed, uninteresting character. NEXT.

<10% becoming playable
Chance: 60%
I have a gut feeling that at least one of these characters becomes playable.
Want: 100%
You know, I never realized how many great characters there are that have less than 10% chance of getting in. Most notably Banjo.

Predictions
Hero of Light: 0.21%
Captain Rainbow: 9.32%

Heracross X5
 

andimidna

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Isabelle chance: 7%
Villager already uses up all of Tom Nook's potential moves, and Resetti has no reason to upgrade from the perfect assist she is.
She always wins the Animal Crossing popularity contests on Miivese. and is the most marketed AC character.
Nintendo obviously loves her, remember that Direct where they had her introduce Iwata or something like that?
Hotfeet444's top ten newcomer video explains her better.
If there's going to be 2 AC reps, they should be Villager and Isabelle, not Tom Nook.


ISABELLE IS DECONFIRMED?!? WHAT?!?!
NO!
actual chance: 0.1% :(
Want: 87%
Me lieks teh isabell.

Less than 10%: 90%
I feel almost certain Sakurai has one more WTF character up his sleeve.
Plus we've underrated a lot of characters.
Want: 100%
Midna for starts.
Plus others.

HoL: 0.25%
Captain Rainbow: 11%

x3 Savvy Stylist (Style Savvy series)
x2 Tiki
 

Groose

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Popular Newcomer Candidates as in all the characters that are popular like Isaac, Chrom, Robin, Waddle Dee, Toon Zelda all the newcomers that are usually in lots of prediction rosters in Smashboards.
I'd define the "upper echelon" of popular characters here to be Ridley, K. Rool, Palutena, Isaac, Shulk, Waddle Dee, Robin, Takamaru and Dixie. I suppose you could throw Chrom on there as well, but he has a pretty sizable hate base here and many people view him as likely, but not wanted (like Miis and Pac-Man).

I think that this will be our first concept to fall short of a 1% chance, but I also think it will rise above a 90% want.
I also have a slight chance reserved for Banjo and Kazooie, but only slight. I don't entirely believe the theory that they're getting bought out by Nintendo, but it is true Nintendo need some kind of power play to get noticed, and that Rare have stopped working on Killer Instinct and only have one Xbox game in the pipeline... it lines up with the last buy out... actually I'm convincing myself of the possibility (if not likelihood) now I'm gonna have to raise the chance a bit more (it was 56% at the first time of writing).

Ofcourse this is just characters, if we're talking Concepts then Fatal Frame music, playable boss mode and Pokémon AT all have enough of a shot to raise it by... I dunno, another 10% or so?
1) We're only including characters today, so I'll disregard that second percentage.
2) Rare going back to Nintendo? Don't... tempt me Chezey! That's a cruel April Fool's Joke, indeed.
I'm back from my stag, and dammit I missed out on the RTC being an AT after I was the one who suggested the concept in the first place.
Welcome back! Sorry you missed your day in the spotlight, but--please understand--sometime those things happen. If you ever think you're going to miss something in the future, let me know, and I'll hold the day off for you.
We should at the end of the week vote Best post, and the user gets 5 noms?
That's all I got.
I'd be game for this, but how would it work? First and foremost, who'd want to run that part of the game? Secondly, would a single person judge it or would it be a group vote? Answer me this and we could go through with it.
Groose will get them all with his Ace Attorney posts. :awesome: :p
Sadly, a computer change has robbed most of my ability to do them. I still can, but not in an hour like I used to.
Because I was lurking around this thread for a little while it is only logical to write my very first post in here!.

Isabelle: Chance 3%, I don't know if we get a second AC character in this smash edition ( I think smash 5 would be more logical) and I think that Tom Nook is more deserving if you look at the franchise as a whole, but Isabelle makes for a good dark horse contender with MR Resetti and KK Rider among others for the second rep ( if we get one) .
Want: 5% I Think that I would want other franchises to get some more characters and some new franchises to get into smash before I want a second AC character, Villager is a good embodiment for what AC stands for, Maybe in smash 5 .

<10%

Chance: 25%
First I should take a look at the list...there are some reasonable characters on there. namely Andy from advance wars and wonder red as the big front runner of their respective franchise and some fan favourites like meowth ( mostly from the anime) toad ( which probably wouldn't make it ) and Vaati hmm I think I will give it 25% because Sakurai has surprised us before and these characters aren't that farfetched to make it either, of course for every toad there is a scrooge mcduck so uhm not every character would be plausible.

want: 80%

Some really deserve to be in smash in my opinion namely the few I named in the chance part but others... not so much ( looking at you omastar haha) SO if lets say Andy makes it I am more than happy:)

Predictions

Hero of light 0.24
great..

Captain rainbow 14.6

increase of the score because of the fat mac trophy I think

I don't really now who of what to nominate...
Welcome to the game and Smashboards in general! It's always an honor when this game actually helps inspire someone to sign up. I see you've pretty much mastered how to play this game; if you need any advice on Smashboards in general, don't hesitate to send me a message.

How about a Rate the chance you'd cosplay the character rating?
...
...
...
I only cosplay as Groose.
...
...
...
...and Mario on rare occasions, but I'm really to tall to be convincing.
...
...
...
...and I've wanted to do a Godot, but he wears expensive vests, and I can't emulate his mask very well...
...
...
...
That's a no to that idea, though.

x3 Savvy Stylist (Style Savvy series)
...
...


Isabelle: 0.01%

1) Villager is using his pre-New Leaf design. That signifies to me that they designed the characters before New Leaf took things over; although she has become the series' star post-New Leaf, I don't think it will impact Smash.
2) Isabelle has competition from Resetti, K.K. Slider, and Tom Nook for a slot that probably doesn't exist.
3) Sakurai has mentioned Isabelle directly in some of his daily pictures, and she appears on Villager's artwork. She isn't being built up to be playable... at all.

Isabelle Want: 0%
I've spent more hours on Animal Crossing than any video game series bar Runescape; that includes Smash Bros. I like Isabelle as a character. Even so, K.K. Slider and Resetti are the only two other Animal Crossing characters I really wouldn't mind seeing.

<10% Chance Character: 49%

Ghirahim, ChromCina, Rainbow, and tons of Retros have a solid shot. Others also have respectable chances, and it really compounds. All in all, though, I can't say I really expect someone so low on the totem poll to be picked, though it wouldn't really surprise me.

<10% Chance Character Want: 50%

I do like surprises, and I think a number of those characters would be good surprises. However, there are also a ton of bad ones. Overall, I'd prefer my surprises to come from the 10-30% range--characters who are talked about and have concrete merit, but just aren't really expected by pretty much anyone--more like a Villager than a Wii Fit Trainer. I'm rather neutral for right now.

x5 Ghirahim

...He's waiting.

DAY OVER

ROYGBIV INCOMING
 

Groose

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Isabelle (Animal Crossing)
0.86% chance
13.32% want

Mr. Mayor! Please be safe in that big Smash tournament! I'd like to come and protect you, but nobody sent me an invitation. It can't be... because they don't like me?

<10% Chance Character
41.85% chance
82.58% want

We don't quite expect the Onix-expected, but we want it to happen? Sounds good to me!

Today we're heading back to the world of Square Enix and talking about a Hero of Light from Final Fantasy. Can it happen? Is it likely? In addition, we're going to be debating a certain Captain. It's time for a Rainbow Punch, baby! Please rate Captain Rainbow in chance and want.

Tomorrow we're seeing Lupus from Jet Force Gemini and a return of Lip of Panel de Pon. Please predict how this duo will fare in tomorrow's matchup.
 

andimidna

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Hero of Light:
Chance: 0.11%
We won't get a Square Enix rep, and if we did, it would be Slime or Black Mage.
EDIT: Wait, am I thinking of the wrong character?
Want: 50%
Neutral...
Captain Rainbow:
Chance: 30%
Important to Nintendo, already has been referenced.
Want: 65%
Sure, I support.
Pre:
Lupus: 0.12%
Lip: 20%
x1 Hikari (and Donbe? haven't decided if I'm rating her with or without yet...)
x1 Gardevoir
x1 Jill
x1 Chrom and Lucina
x1 Bandana Dee
 
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Groose

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Important to Nintendo, already has been referenced.
That was a quick rating! I'd like to interject for a moment, however. I'd hesitate to call him "important to Nintendo;" his game sold so poorly in Japan (the region it was primarily catered towards) that localization was cancelled. Unless Smash works some wonders, seeing another entry in the Captain Rainbow series isn't particularly likely.
 

BluePikmin11

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Captain Rainbow Chance: 14% I think he has a decent chance of happening, but due to the poor reception and sales, I don't really see him being playable at all.
Captain Rainbow Want: 75% My want for him would better if there was a English Translation. D:

Lip Prediction: 12.5% Popularism (which is the incorrect way to rate) will rein over Lip's chances.

Nominations:
x5 All Popular Newcomer Candidates
 

TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
Hero of Light
1% around
Black Mage man

Rainbow
10% Chance
55% Want
Could be cool.

The best poster would be a group vote in which all posts from a week are taken into account, and users may nominate one of their posts, or one of another user's, for the spot, the next day, the vote is cast.

Nominating Lucas (The Wizard) x5

Lupus 0.02%
Lip 13.13%
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
Hero of Light and Captain Rainbow have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Captain Rainbow before, check to see what you said on his day!

Hero of Light
Chance:
1%

I guess he could get in as a Square Enix rep, but I doubt that he will get in over Black Mage and Moogle.
Want: 0%
Ehh...

Captain Rainbow
Chance: 10%

Well... something has changed... and this is one of the oddest characters to have a change in ratings.
As I've mentioned before on his day, his game is absolutely weird in terms of content. The gameplay is the opposite of what Smash Bros. is; instead of fighting as Nintendo all-stars, you help Nintendo's most obscure characters.
The major downside is that... well... his game sold horribly. The game sold so poorly that the European port was canceled and will definitely never see the light of day. The game's poor sales makes Captain Rainbow a highly questionable choice. When new series are getting represented, you cannot deny that his is not the most deserving. Why should Captain Rainbow be represented before other Nintendo series like Xenoblade Chronicles, Advance Wars, Golden Sun, and even Ninja Castle? Also, why should Captain Rainbow get in over Chibi-Robo, a more popular character by Skip Ltd.? He is by far the king of all Nintendo obscurity.
There are some things going for him. While his game bombed, it still has some recognition by Nintendo fans. When we discuss characters like Little Mac, Takamaru, and Lip, of course his game is going to be brought up. Second is the Little Mac trophy:

There was a suspicion that Sakurai likes Captain Rainbow; this trophy basically confirms that. Why would it get referenced otherwise? To my surprise, Captain Rainbow is quite popular in Japan. While I see his name somewhat splattered on Miiverse, he is a popular pick in Japan. What is extremely odd is that the data that Chrono found on what Japan wants has absolutely no mention on Captain Rainbow.
http://smashboards.com/threads/obse...es-desires-for-smash-4-by-chronobound.338160/
Did Chrono overlook him? Apparently, he is wanted among the other characters that Japan wants, like Shulk, a character that is really wanted by Japan.
Lastly, he has uniqueness. While Ness uses a Yo-yo, Captain Rainbow could use that in all of his attacks. As a result, he could be quite the interesting character for Sakurai to choose and I think that Sakurai has at some point or another considered him.
Overall, I think that the most Captain Rainbow will probably get will be Trophies, Stickers, music, and maybe a stage. (Speaking of music, I am hoping someone can post more music from the game... it's rather good.) Though, I honestly wouldn't be too surprised if Sakurai ends up adding him on the roster. He is definitely a character that Sakurai could pull out of left field, probably to please Japanese fans and to surprise us. I find him to be a contender for Smash. He is not a strong one, but he still has a chance of getting in this game.
Want: 90%
I saw a whole play through of his game and I liked what I saw. I am a huge Nintendo fan and it was great to see all of these forgotten Nintendo characters in this one area.
On a side note, I do wish that Skip didn't overrepresent themselves. I know that it's their game and that Smash is a far higher priority for Nintendo's other 1st and 2nd party companies, but I would have loved to see series like Kirby get represented with a character (Gooey perhaps).

It's... actually sad in a way. While characters like Mario and Link go on to make millions, other characters like Takamaru are just absolutely forgotten.
It's also odd to not see him get referenced around here in terms of character discussion. Honestly, Captain Rainbow would be the perfect WTF character and I am honestly shocked that he is nearly one step closer to becoming that. If he can't be playable, then he should at least be an Assist Trophy.
Now, I increased by want score by 10%. In all honesty, while he is aesthetically similar to Captain Falcon, I trust that Sakurai will make him a unique character. If he shattered the thoughts of Rosalina being a semi-clone of Peach, then I bet he could do the same here.
I wouldn't put Captain Rainbow on my top 10 most wanted newcomers, but it would still be a pleasure to see him in the game.

Lupus Prediction: .03%
A Rare character? He should get annihilated. Even if we can get a Rare character, people would be pulling for Banjo. I would be extremely surprised if Lupus manages to beat Banjo.
Lip Prediction: 23.72%
I can see her scores increase thanks to Captain Rainbow.

Nominations: Wario Land Wario 5x
 
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Smasher 101

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 21, 2013
Messages
1,046
Location
USA
3DS FC
0877-3649-6314
Switch FC
SW-7628-2111-0913
^ But I like winning! :p

Hero of Light's chances: 0.5% - I don't think we'll get a Final Fantasy character.
Want: 0% - Most of the Square Enix characters don't interest me at all, and this is not an exception.

Captain Rainbow's chances: 10% - That trophy helps a bit, but I still am rather doubtful.
Want: 75% - I've always been interested in his game.

Lupus prediction: 0.03% - I want to say 0%, but I'm sure someone will give it a percentage.
Lip prediction: 14.57% - Generally seen as less likely than Takamaru and Mach Rider, but more likely than every other retro.

Zoroark x10
 
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andimidna

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 22, 2013
Messages
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Gusty garden galaxy
Lupus is a Rare character?
I changed my prediction from 1.2% to 0.12%

I also changed my noms.
Jill deserves a score more than any unrated character so far except Tiki.
Bandana Dee is overrated.
Chrom and Lucina is underrated.
Somebody else will nominate Impa.
Captain Rainbow re-rate made me think of Hikari.
 
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Glaciacott

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 4, 2013
Messages
1,628
Location
Mintendo Noodle House
Hero of Light
Chances - 0%
Why? Even if we by miraculous fortune get a Square Enix character, there's Slime and Black Mage in terms of impact/popularity along with less optimal fan favorites like Sora. I don't see this even remotely possible.

Want - 0%
No.

Nick
Captain Rainbow!
Chance - 8%
I don't think I rated him before. Oh well, in any case, I would have raised the rating given that Mac trophy referencing his game as well as Peach's rainbow arc preceding the reveal of Little Mac. Hey, it's almost like Captain Rainbow convinced Sakurai of Mac's potential and then the Wii game a year or so later further raised the odds ...
In any case, what really brings the Captain down is how poorly the game did in Japan. Not to mention that I feel their developer (Skips I think they're called?) would probably prefer to have Chibi Robo included instead given how much support Chibi Robo has received from fans and from Nintendo.
The other problem I have is moveset potential. I feel like the ... mimis? I'm forgetting names all over ... I feel like those things could wind up in the moveset somehow but how I do not know. Maybe the famicom warriors could come in and help? In short, I don't see how a moveset for Rainbow would work, particularly when his main schtick, the Yo-Yo, is already part of Ness's moveset.
Nevertheless, I do feel like he'll be included even if not playable. The character exudes personality, Sakurai is aware of him, and his game was like an easter egg of Nintendo's past. Not to mention some of the characters he helped--Takamaru, Lip-- are now possible inclusions as well, with Little Mac already confirmed.

Want - 50%
Complete indifference. I would not hate it, but I wouldn't really be happy about it.

Predictions
Lupus - 0.23%
A non-wanted Rare character? Don't expect a lot of like for him. And ... how are we rating him before Conker?
Lip - 14.6%
Ah, if only she had gotten rated along Captain Rainbow ...

Nominations
x5 Balloon Fight Stage ... I'll get back to Fluff after this.
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
Isabelle has been added to the popularity chart and placed 140th. Having a character that we rated <10% becoming playable is the third most popular concept. I'm very relieved that the concepts that I think up tend to get high want ratings, as opposed to the characters I nominate. :)

Heroes of light
Chance: 0% - Square Enix has bigger mascots.
Want: 0% - I have no idea how it would work.

Captain Rainbow
Chance: 3% - And here I thought Lucas and Ike had games that did poorly, but even they blow Captain Rainbow out of the water. 22,000 sales isn't just bad, it's a disaster. I don't think the fat Mac trophy helps his chances very much, I think it's more of an attempt to show Little Mac's own history in video games. Even if that's not the case, there has already been some 30+ Nintendo franchises that have gotten a trophy in Melee and Brawl without getting a character. What makes this trophy scenario any different? I'd say the only thing Captain Rainbow has going for him is that he fits the theme of SSB, being from a Nintendo multi-crossover himself.
Want: 17% - I'm not too interested, but maybe I'd warm up to him.

Lupus prediction: 0.1%
Lip prediction: 7%

Nominations: Shepard x5
 
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KingofPhantoms

The Spook Factor
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Messages
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Hero of Light - 0%

Too much competition from other Square Enix characters and third party characters in general.

Want - 0%



Captain Rainbow - 10%

What did I give this guy last time? I swear I rated him on his first day. Ah well, nevermind that for now.

Honestly, I don't think the Little Mac trophy truly increase his chances. It shows that the game was acknowledged in Smash, but Captain Rainbow is yet another obscure game that will probably just get a couple of trophies, possibly Capt. Rainbow as an Assist as well.

Japan may want him a lot, but I doubt he'd be included over a number of other characters. He doesn't have all that much potential either IMO.

Want - 50%

As long as he doesn't get in before certain other characters, I'm indifferent to him.

Lupus Prediction - 0.1%

I have no clue who this is.

Lip Prediction 16.12%

Spyro x5
 
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Erimir

Smash Lord
Joined
Nov 24, 2001
Messages
1,732
Location
DC
3DS FC
3823-8583-9137
Hero of Light
Most generic Final Fantasy protagonist. That makes it more of an avatar for the series, but also makes it less interesting than picking a specific character (like Cloud, Terra, Cecil), a specific class (Black Mage), or an animal friend (Moogle, Chocobo). A generic FF protag would also fall into the "fantasy hero with a sword" category, which Nintendo does not have a shortage of. There's no need to import one of those if you're not getting something more interesting.

Hero of Light chance: 0.05%
Hero of Light want: 0%
If we get an FF rep, I'd rather it be Terra, or Black Mage, or Moogle, or Chocobo, or even Cloud.

Captain Rainbow
Why are people reading so much into a trophy? Sakurai acknowledges the existence of Captain Rainbow =/= Captain Rainbow is somehow anymore appealing as a choice than he was before. Captain Rainbow getting some references by way of trophies, stickers, music, or even a stage or AT are the appropriate level of acknowledgement.

Sure, he's a little more likely now that we know he's not totally off Sakurai's radar, but come on. Sakurai put references to tons of games in Brawl with trophies and stickers, and yet the roster was still only 35 characters. It would also be more convincing if it weren't a trophy of Little Mac, who's already in the game. If it were a trophy of someone from Captain Rainbow who is not in the game otherwise, I'd think more of it.

Captain Rainbow chances: 0.8%
Captain Rainbow want: 35%
Maybe his game was fun and funny, and I'd be interested in playing an English version. But I don't have much interest in him as a character. My impression that his game is built around the supporting characters, and so even if his game had sold a lot better (few hundred thousand or more) he still wouldn't necessarily be the most obvious choice.

Lupus: 0.02%
Banjo-Kazooie did very poorly in chance, and people would actually like that to happen.
Lip: 10%
Expecting a little less optimism this time around.

Nominations:
50+ characters x5
 
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andimidna

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 22, 2013
Messages
3,330
Location
Gusty garden galaxy
Isabelle has been added to the popularity chart and placed 140th. Having a character that we rated <10% becoming playable is the third most popular concept. I'm very relieved that the concepts that I think up tend to get high want ratings, as opposed to the characters I nominate. :)

Heroes of light
Chance: 0% - Square Enix has bigger mascots.
Want: 0% - I have no idea how it would work.

Captain Rainbow
Chance: 3% - And here I thought Lucas and Ike had games that did poorly, but even they blow Captain Rainbow out of the water. 22,000 sales isn't just bad, it's a disaster. I don't think the fat Mac trophy helps his chances very much, I think it's more of an attempt to show Little Mac's own history in video games. Even if that's not the case, there has already been some 30+ Nintendo franchises that have gotten a trophy in Melee and Brawl without getting a character. What makes this trophy scenario any different? I'd say the only thing Captain Rainbow has going for him is that he fits the theme of SSB, being from a Nintendo multi-crossover himself.
Want: 17% - I'm not too interested, but maybe I'd warm up to him.

Lupus prediction: 0.1%
Lip prediction: 7%

Nominations: Shepard x5
Hero of Light
Most generic Final Fantasy protagonist. That makes it more of an avatar for the series, but also makes it less interesting than picking a specific character (like Cloud, Terra, Cecil), a specific class (Black Mage), or an animal friend (Moogle, Chocobo). A generic FF protag would also fall into the "fantasy hero with a sword" category, which Nintendo does not have a shortage of. There's no need to import one of those if you're not getting something more interesting.

Hero of Light chance: 0.05%
Hero of Light want: 0%
If we get an FF rep, I'd rather it be Terra, or Black Mage, or Moogle, or Chocobo, or even Cloud.

Captain Rainbow
Why are people reading so much into a trophy? Sakurai acknowledges the existence of Captain Rainbow =/= Captain Rainbow is somehow anymore appealing as a choice than he was before. Captain Rainbow getting some references by way of trophies, stickers, music, or even a stage or AT are the appropriate level of acknowledgement.

Sure, he's a little more likely now that we know he's not totally off Sakurai's radar, but come on. Sakurai put references to tons of games in Brawl with trophies and stickers, and yet the roster was still only 35 characters. It would also be more convincing if it weren't a trophy of Little Mac, who's already in the game. If it were a trophy of someone from Captain Rainbow who is not in the game otherwise, I'd think more of it.

Captain Rainbow chances: 0.8%
Captain Rainbow want: 35%
Maybe his game was fun and funny, and I'd be interested in playing an English version. But I don't have much interest in him as a character. My impression that his game is built around the supporting characters, and so even if his game had sold a lot better (few hundred thousand or more) he still wouldn't necessarily be the most obvious choice.

Lupus: 0.02%
Banjo-Kazooie did very poorly in chance, and people would actually like that to happen.
Lip: 10%
Expecting a little less optimism this time around.

Nominations:
50+ characters x5
The previous overall rating for Captain Rainbow was 4.45%
Even if you don't think it raised his chances significantly, it did raise his chances a little bit.
So why should his chance rating go down?
It's fine if you give him a 4.46%, but seriously? From 4.45 to 0.8?
I know I rated him too high, I was in a rush. But there's no reason to underrate him so much.
There were doubts there would even be a single nod to Captain Rainbow before. Since we have that now, he should at least move up a little bit.
 

Erimir

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
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Location
DC
3DS FC
3823-8583-9137
The previous overall rating for Captain Rainbow was 4.45%
Even if you don't think it raised his chances significantly, it did raise his chances a little bit.
So why should his chance rating go down?
It's fine if you give him a 4.46%, but seriously? From 4.45 to 0.8?
I know I rated him too high, I was in a rush. But there's no reason to underrate him so much.
There were doubts there would even be a single nod to Captain Rainbow before. Since we have that now, he should at least move up a little bit.
I didn't lower my rating for him.

I rated 0.8% last time as well. I disagree with his previous average rating then, and I still disagree with it. And it certainly shouldn't jump up to 10% or anything like that.
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
The previous overall rating for Captain Rainbow was 4.45%
Even if you don't think it raised his chances significantly, it did raise his chances a little bit.
So why should his chance rating go down?
It's fine if you give him a 4.46%, but seriously? From 4.45 to 0.8?
I know I rated him too high, I was in a rush. But there's no reason to underrate him so much.
There were doubts there would even be a single nod to Captain Rainbow before. Since we have that now, he should at least move up a little bit.
I honestly feel that Captain Rainbow does not have a good chance. I also thought that 4.46% was too high to begin with. Everyone on this forum disagrees with some ratings, so it's unfair to assume that the previous rating is infallible and needs to be viewed as the absolute standard. Also as Erimer has already pointed out Little Mac is already in the game, so it's no surprise that Sakurai acknowledges the existence of the fat Mac from Captain Rainbow. No hard feelings if I am proven wrong about his chances.

Edit: This new layout had better be an April fools joke.
 
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YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,123
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Hero of Light
Chance: 0%

Square won't go for this. They'll want to use someone more current(Lightning, Sora, Slime) or more recognisable(Black Mage, White Mage, Ninja, Cloud, Moogle). Still more likely than Geno.

Want: 0%
Just...freaking no. Frankly I don't want any Square character, and Hero of Light isn't legendary.

Captain Rainbow
Chance: 20%

Okay, sooo...I see Captain Rainbow having an outside chance actually. Not because of the trophy of 'Big' Mac(although I do think it helps), but because after the Little Mac reveal I saw their reaction to him...he's mostly known for being in Captain Rainbow. A lot of the requests on that page were for Captain Rainbow and the character seems to be genuinely liked in Japan despite the incredibly poor sales of the game.
He's still fairly obscure, but seems to be one of the few characters Japan are requesting.

Want: 90%
You know what? If spaces are as limited as many claim I'd rather put Takamaru and Lip into Captain Rainbow's moveset and be done with it. Captain Rainbow could easily include a lot of the residents from his island into his moveset as summonable moves akin to Peach's Toad Guard or Dedede's Waddle Dee toss. Many will say it's an injustice to do this, but hey; Remember Toad? Popular character in Japan. Internationally known. Chances are you've had the chance to play him at least once recently. Still just a (kinda bad) counter move. Takamaru and Lip are pretty much unknowns outside of Japan, and Japan knows them more for being in Captain Rainbow anyway. Staple them together and save some slots.

Aside from being a great slot saver, Captain Rainbow is a really colourful game with a very fun sense of humour, and I can easily see him becoming the newest Smash sensation akin to Captain Falcon with his flamboyant moves and sense of style. He'd be a fun character for sure whatever they do with the guy, of that much I'm absolutely certain.

Predictions:
Lupus: 0.03%

Probably not getting a good score...at all.

Lip: 20%
Still a popular Japan only obscure retro character, second only to Takamaru on Smashboards. Referenced several times in Smash already. Could happen...still would prefer to nail her to Captain Rainbow's moveset.

Nominations:
50+ characters x5
(seemed like an interesting one)
 
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