Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[colder_than_ice]

Panther has been added to the popularity chart and finished second to last. Dillon fell only one spot to solo Tetra, going from 14th to 15th.

Wild Gunman
Chance: 0% - This character is long forgotten.
Want: 0% - His design is actually more generic than Sheriff, that is no small feat.

Omastar
Chance: 0% - A Pokemon of no importance what so ever.
Want: 87% - This was actually the same want score I gave him last time. Playing as a prehistoric spiral tentacle sea monster would be pretty awesome.
I liked Omastar before it was cool.

Kunio Kun prediction: 0.5%

Snake prediction: 50%

Nominations: <10% chance character becomes playable.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Wild Gunman
10% Chance
40% Want

Helix
1% Chance
100% Want

Nominating Lucas (The Wizard) x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Lord Helix:

Chance: 0% - Obviously.

Want: 85% - I'm dead ****ing serious here. The Red version of Twitch Plays Pokémon is the most fun the internet has ever brought me, I was following it religiously from Mt. Moon until the very end. All the stories, lore, artwork and jokes that spawned from it was beyond hilarious, we cried and we laughed together, it truly was a big event for me, and in the middle of it all was our Lord Helix. It was more than a regular bland meme, and I usually hate memes too. The moment we finally revived him was beyond fantastic, it felt like the purpose of the run had been fulfilled, and it was such a relief we didn't accidentally release him too. His inclusion in Smash, while impossible in every way, would remind me of the great times I had with TPP. To compare with my other ratings, the only characters who I've rated that go over this guy in want are K. Rool, Porky and Ridley.

Nominations:
5x RTC Top Ten Member AT

 

[Deleted member]

Everybody loves Snake, we all know we're going to rate him too high, let's just get the bias over with.
He's definitely getting a more likely than not rating.

I'm going to rate him low and give him a 15% in chance and a 0% in want. I was never confident in Snake returning and I simply don't want him to come back for a multitude of reasons. I don't hate Snake and I love his moveset, but I rather see him get the axe.

 

[Smady]

Wild Gunman

0.1% Chance: A retro that may be chosen at random because Sakurai wants to do it, basically. That's the only way it could happen and I find Sheriff the more suitable western-styled retro to fill that position. I'd also say that Dog Hunt Dog fits the light gun genre of characters best and among them best known plus has any popularity. By comparison few would've heard of Wild Gunman.

10% Want: I'd prefer Sheriff for the sake of a retro who's simple enough to be adapted into anything by Sakurai. Wild Gunman isn't nearly as easily changed into a moveset until you make him a generic cowboy. I wouldn't mind a western-themed set, but there are about three others I would like to see before this guy. I also don't think his art style would upgrade well to Smash 4. There would need to be tonnes of work to re-design the character.

Omastar

0% Chance: Total random pick for Pokemon. There are, lets see, over twelve fossils in total? That would be his competition primarily and if there was to be one, I'd think it'd be the newer fossils, the dinosaur and Mr. Competitive Typing. Aerodactyl got a Mega Evolution, Omastar did not. There's nothing to suggest Omastar is special and that is a death sentence if you're in a series that has hundreds of viable reps.

1% Want: I was a fan of TPP for a while but it's obviously not important enough to represent in Smash Bros. Even if it stuck around beyond the period where it could be considered a fad (seems to me it has lost most of its popularity already) maybe it would have any impact. Omastar the Pokemon, who the set would actually be based on, is a good Pokemon, but there are dozens of others I'd prefer and who deserve it first.

Kunio-kun Prediction: 0.4%
Another retro. Sadly, not many people know this guy.
Solid Snake Prediction: 70%
An extremely popular veteran that has a completely unique moveset. Yup, placing a high bet on this one.

Happy Mask Salesman x5

 

[lurxy]

Wild Gunman:
Chance: 5%
Well, he seems to be an odd choice but it's Sakurai. And if we know one thing about Sakurai it is his love for odd choices.

Want: 1%
Who is this again? Although a Western Outlaw character would be something new...

Omastar:
Chance: 0%
There are more than 700 Pokemon and many of them are more known than Omastar. So why would he be even considered?

Want: 0%
I don't want Omastar on his own, but an ancient Pokemon Trainer would be something sweet.

Also i nominate Sami from Advance Wars.
Sami x5

 

[Gunla]

Wild Sheriff: Pew pew!

Pros
+Does the things Sheriff can, but less of them! (Wait, that's a con!)
Cons
-Many of the other Retros are far more recognizable.
-Seriously, we're grasping at straws here!
-Even Sheriff is better!
Overall.... Much better retros are there. We're looking at bottom of the barrel!
OVERALL CHANCE: 0.4%
Want: 00.01%- I'd prefer my westerns to be Sheriffs.

Lord Helix: Bless you, my child.

Chances: 0%- I don't need to explain myself here.
Want: 100%- ALL HAIL LORD HELIX!

Predictions:
Snake? Snake? OVERUSED QUOTE!!!!- 69%
Kunio-Chan: .07%- Why.
Nominations:
Lip X5

 

[loganhogan]

Wild Gunman
chance 10%
The retro guys are all fair-game to me but some outrank others. No cowboys have debuted to smash bros yet but Dillon and Sheriff are possibilities,. I'm not saying that a cowboy is a lock-in but in this regard he (Wild Gunman) isn't entirely unique. Sheriff outranks him for being older and he is the first of them and Dillon has a design that is perfectly unique and fit for smash bros and belongs to a bigger series. This guy is also directly competing against the Duck Hunt Dog, their games are the same genre after all but the Dog is much more infamous and iconic and far outnumbers in cameos. Wild Gunman deserves a trophy, but I believe he isn't a frontrunner yet.
want 10%

Omastar
chance 5% Perfect for a pokeball pokemon but not entirely legendary or important enough for playable fighter.
want 10%

x1 Barbara the Bat
x1 Jill Dozer
x1 Dr. Wright
x2 Dr. Lobe

predict 77% and 0.53%

 

[Pacack]

Wild Gunman:

Chance: 3%
Trust your resident Nintendo historian here guys. Wild Gunman has a very slight chance in one form; history representative...Yes, you heard me right. Not retro. Wild Gunman was originally an arcade game. It's fame was on the NES, but it existed before then, and it is, technically, one of Ninty's oldest franchises. It's not likely by any means, but it's possible. The original Wild Gunman was before Sheriff, after all.

Want: 20%
I would rather have sheriff with one of these designs:

BUT, I'd happily welcome a Wild Gunman with this design too.

(Of course, I'd give either one of them cork guns rather than real ones for legal reasons and to fit with the Nintendo style.)

Omastar: Double 0s.

Snake Prediction: 66.67%
Let's see how this goes. I'm expecting a fair bit of "50% since it could easily go either way" posts.

Noms: Eh, why not Sheriff since he's come to mind? Sheriff x5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

WILD GUNMAN AND LORD OMASTAR HELIX

Chance and Want (Both): .1% - No.

Snake Prediction: 75% - I predict tomorrow shall be a very interesting day!

Kunio Prediction: 2% - ???

Nominations:
Lip x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

A Wild Gunman appears:

Chance used 0%
It's super effective

Want used 0%
It's super effective

the Wild Gunman fainted


Oh wait, that wasn't the Pokémon character? I got confused by the wild part...



Old Fossil: 0/0
Meme that happened AFTER the game started development, I think his chances for a pokéball appearance barely register at a whole percent, and that's because they're comparatively quick to implement. If someone caught TPP and liked it enough we might get some of our favorites from the stream with Ball appearances, but it's both too late, and too (comparatively) obscure, to jump a playable character.


Kunio-kun: 0.6%
I don't even... I'm gonna have to abstain 'cos I just can't work this one out...

Snake: 38%
I see lots of high numbers... and I don't know whee they're getting it from?


Hero of Light*5

 

[Tselel (5805)]

Gunman:
Chances: 10%
Want: 0% I just have no familiarity with the guy.

Lord Helix:
Chances: 0%
Want: 80% I would settle for at least a quiet reference in a trophy somewhere. "Omastar has also been noted to invoke seizures on one occasion in particular."

 

[Chandeelure]

-Wild Gunman:
Chances: 2%
Want: 5%

-Omastar:
Chances: 0%
Want: 0%

-Nomination: Chrom X5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Our Lord: 0.1%
Want: 100%
WG: 1.5%
Want: 0%
Kunio-kun: 0.23%
SNAAKE: 75.67%
Robin x 5

 

[Kenith]

Wild Gunman
Chance: 2%.
Want: 1%.

Lord Helix Omastar
Chance: 1%.
Want: 100%. PRAISE THE HELIX FOSSIL

Kunio-kun: 3%.
Snake: 65%. Scoliosis is gonna bring the house down on this one.

Nominations: Since I'm in the mood for it, Ghirahim x5

 

[False Sense]

Omastar

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Conclusion: Who nominated this again?

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Wild Gunman Chances: 5%. There are few Retros I'd give more than a 30%. This is not one of them.
Want: 35%. Eh, only if Sheriff's not in.
Omastar Chances: 0%. Even PSYDUCK has a better chance.
Want: 0%. I'm attached to most Water types, but not this one.
Snake: 45.8%. Mixed.
Kunio: 2.7%. Too low.
Dedede Arena X2
Leif X2
Chrom X1

 

[Toxicroaker]

I'm back! (in black!)
Lord Helix: 0%
Want: 0%

Wild Gunman: 2.5%
Want: 50%

Kunio-Kun: 0.31%
Solid Snake: 59.12%

x5 Dixie Kong

 

[McDuckletts]

Wild Gundude
Chance: 0.1%
He uses real guns. I'm sorry, but that's a big deal. Not to mention how obscure he is
Want: 0%
Seems generic.

Lord Epic Memes
Chance/Want: 0%
I don't need to go to in-depth on why he has no chance because let's be honest here I think we all know why. However I shall still explain my new found hate towards this thing. Before TPP, Omanyte/Omastar was just another forgetful Gen 1 Pokemon to me. Now that he's turned into an "EP1C M3M3!!!" I just can't help but cringe whenever he's brought up. At least things like Slowpoke and Bidoof led to some memorable image macros. Helix, however, is just forced. It's something that was only ever brought up barely a month ago and it's already achieved internet fame. You can't tell me that this isn't forced in any way because guess what? It is.
Also Kabutops is cooler ok.

Predictions
Kunio-Kun: 0.23%
Solid Snake: 67.27%

Nom: Heracross X5

Hey, if someone can nominate Omastar to the top twice, I don't see why I can't do the same with my favorite Pokemon.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Sorry I haven't been around for the last day or so. I decided to come on now just because I saw Lord Helix.


Wild Gunman Chance: 0.1%
Nobody knows him anymore. He is at the point where he is TOO obscure! Sheriff merits a slot much more than this guy.

Wild Gunman Want: 0%
Prefer Sheriff.
TAKE HIM AWAY, BOYS!!!


Our Great Lord Helix Chance: 1%
Could represent fossil Pokémon.
That's about it, unless Sakurai is amazed by Twitch Plays Pokémon and is so inspired he uses a whole character slot on the Smash Roster to show his love for it. But as awesome as that sounds, it's unlikely.

Jesus Octopus Fossil Want: 30%
Gimme. Even Helix himself agrees he should be in!

Kunio-Kun Prediction: 0.123%
Meh.

Solid Snake Prediction: 65.07734%
I don't see why he wouldn't return, except if there if some legal issue, or Sakurai simply hates him, which he doesn't.

Omnomnominations: x5 Roy!

 

[Groose]

My analysis indicates it is because a fan of the character nominated him multiple times until he reached the top of the list.

9/10. Should have thrown in an "85% chance that," too.

"X5 Alfonzo (Leave it to Me!)"
I'm guessing someone nominated him after he was deconfirmed?

Alfonzo? Deconfirmed? Naw, when Alfonzo joins the battle, Tingle takes over conducting the train. Tingle: "Leave it to me!"

e a fair number of characters are slightly overrated, I consider him the most underrated characters in RTC)

I concur. I currently have him at a 15%, and I feel that's pretty harsh if anything. The fact that he didn't hit double digits is a bit startling.

I won't be here until Monday; on my Stag Do/Bachelor Party. I'll see you next week!

Enjoy!

Omastar Chances: 0%. Even PSYDUCK has a better chance.

Look, don't bash on Psyduck. That's not allowed in this thread. Like, get out if you don't like Psyduck. We all know that he's one of the best Pokemon ever created.
I seriously do love Psyduck, but I seriously don't want to banish you.

Wild Gunman Chance: 1%
Sheriff would be better for representing Nintendo's past, and he's a cleaner slate to work with. Dillon would be better for Nintendo's present, and he's got more to work with. I don't see much room for Wild Gunman.

Wild Gunman: 50% want
I'm all for a western character, but I'm behind Dillon more than anyone else.

Omastar Chance and Want: 0%

Ghirahim x5

DAY OVER

...FOSSILS DESERVE TO STAY DEAD.​

 

[Davidreamcatcha]

WILD GUNMAN

Chance: 2% - he's one of the more obscure retro characters, but there's always a chance Sakurai randomly draws his name from a hat.

Want: 50% - Little more explanation needed here. I'd prefer Gunman over Sheriff for 2 reasons - Gunman has a pre-established design from both his boxart and actual in-game sprite, while there's the possibility Sheriff gets a bad overhaul or he's another 2D sprite character. Also for personal reasons in that I enjoy playing as Wario - Gunman has a similar stature to Wario and would likely be in the same ballpark in terms of stats and movement, while Sheriff would probably be more Fox-like. His playstyle would just be more appealing to me.

(Also keep in mind that he's not THAT obscure - his original version has seniority over Sheriff by 4 years and the game was famous enough to get namedropped into Back to the Future 2.)

 

[Groose]

Wild Gunman
2.93% chance
13.40% want
DRAW! BANG! Sheriff's shot struck first. Wild Gunman's chances are wounded!

Omastar
0.35% chance (was 0.19%)
25.85% want (was 11.63%)
Omastar's want increased drastically, and he did improve enough chance-wise to pass Yarne and Nintendog on the chance chart. Yippee!

Get your cardboard boxes ready! Solid Snake is back, baby! Does he have a shot to make it into Smash again? Please rate Solid Snake in chance and want. Also, we'll be rating Kunio-Kun (aka Alex) from River City Ransom.

Tomorrow we'll meet with a terrible fate--discussing a member of our top ten falling. Please predict how the Happy Mask Salesman and one of our top ten chance on the OP as an assist trophy will fare.

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Kunio-Kun: 1.1%
Back in the NES era, his series of beat-em'-ups and sports games was huge in Japan. Besides River City Ransom, a lot of the games actually did get Western releases, but they were marketed as standalone games rather than a single franchise.
The developers of the Kunio-Kun series folded in 1996. The company who currently holds the rights to the character have proven to be fairly willing to lend out the rights, as evidenced by their approval of that River City Ransom fan sequel a few months back.

Want: 85%
The first name that comes to mind when I think "retro rep", but then I remember he's a third-party.

: 90%

Want: 97.5%

Hikari Sentai Maskman prediction: 2.34%
Top Ten AT prediction: 53.03%

Nominate:
Isabelle x5

 

[Smasher 101]

@Brawler610 won extra nominations for Wild Gunman. My Omastar prediction got me extra nominations for the fourth day in a row, though that's as far as my winning streak will go.

Kunio-Kun's chances and want: 0% - Third party that isn't legendary. Next!

Snake's chances: 70% - He's by far the most likely cut, but I still think he has a shot.
Want: 50% - I am generally pro-no cuts but I no longer really care about Snake. I enjoyed playing as him but he's not really the best third party choice for Smash. I'm not at all against his return, but I also won't be that upset if he's left out.

Like yesterday, I am abstaining for predictions today due to my winning streak. I'll start predicting again tomorrow.

Zoroark x10

 

[Depressed Gengar]

I actually like Psyduck. I'm just saying while he is unlikely, he's better off than Omastar.

 

[andimidna]

Solid Snake:
Chance: He got in Brawl because Kojima wanted him in.
It is now confirmed that Kojima wants him back.
It's only March, it is not too late to return data from Brawl for somebody as big as Snake.
70%
Want: I support no cuts. But wouldn't hate cuts.
But Snake is a baddass, even if I was terrible at playing as him.
90%
Alex:
Chance: ?
Want: 50%?
I guess.
Predict:
HMS: 3%
Many word thing: 40%

x5 Captain Syrup
She looks extremely underrated.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Enough is Enough!

I'm sick of this motherf*cking Snake in this motherf*cking game!

Everyones strap in 'cos I'm about to open some zeroes...



Snake:

Chance/Want: 0%
Konami are already in Nintendo's bad books, and with Kojima's comment I don't even think that field has allowed him entry anymore. Maybe 0% is harsh for a veteran, okay I'll change that to a 10% to be generous, but I honestly don't see the higher ups agreeing to his inclusion after how little he changed in the MGS release deals for Nintendo... and how much has changed in Konami's support for the company.

Don't get me wrong, the fact that Sakurai and Kojima want him in is great, but I think the problem goes way over their heads. Even if Konami tried to make amends now, it's too little too late... They have to have something pretty big in their pockets ready for e3 if they want to get into Nintendo's good books again, and honestly the only thing I can imagine them doing is Lords of Shadow collection Wii U ltimate... which would be great, but I still don't think it'll be enough to convince Konami or Nintendo to allow Snake into the game... Simon Belmont maybe, but he'd be harder too implement and this'd've had to been in the pipework longer than I though, but unless we're getting a very very very quick turn around for Ground Zero U, I don't see Snake being let back in by the higher ups...


Real chance: 10%
Real Want: 5%
He doesn't deserve the spot imo, but his move set was fun.



Kunio-kun: Abstain
Sadly he falls into an odd point of not being truly legendary, but being very very notable. The upcoming Kunio Quest (or whatever it's called, the Dragon Quest rip-off) was huge news, and River City Ransom is even popular in the west... but it's just not up there with the Belmonts, Megamen, or Slimes of this world. I don't know enough to honestly say no, but I can say that I don't think he deserves it... Also I thought he's always been pixelated? that'd be strange in smash no?

Want: 0%



Majora (I mean, it was his mask Skull Kid stole, right?): 0.22%
I don't even...

AT 109 (yeah, I just made a fixed attenuator reference, I did electrical engineering at uni): 89.97%
of the 99.97% (I worked it out) chance that the remaining first party characters aren't playable you'll all think there's about 10% chance that none of them are ATs



Hero of Light*5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Kunio-Kun: 0%
Want: 0%

Snake: 10%
Want: He won't end up with PM sleep darts, so... 15% Who cares if I mained him in PM, he doesn't deserve to get in.

Happy Mask Salesman: 0.42%
Top Ten Chance as an Assist Trophy: 93%

x5 Dixie Kong

 

[colder_than_ice]

Wild Gunman has been added to the popularity chart. He placed 138th, 11 spots behind Sheriff. Omastar skyrocketed past 55 other characters, climbing from 142nd to 97th.

Kunio-Kun
Chance: 0% - So he's both obscure and a third party?
Want: 0% - I have no interest.

Snake: 30% - Kojima said it's unlikely, that's a pretty good reason to doubt his chances.
Want: 24% - Is it wrong that I'm genuinely more worried about losing "Calling to the Night" than I am about losing Snake?

Happy Mask Salesman prediction: 0.1%
Top 10 character as an AT prediction: 47%

Nominations: <10% chance character becomes playable. x5

 

[Starbound]

Snake: 95% Chance / 85% Want

Sakurai has stated he hasn't planned on making any cuts. Kojima was messing with us.

Unique veterans shouldn't get cut.

Abstaining other dude.

 

[FalKoopa]

Kunio Kun:
Likelihood: 0%
Who?

Want: 0%
Why?

Snake:
Likelihood: 95%
Sakurai hasn't planned to cut him. Nor is Kojima opposed to him reappearing. Tell me, is it not proof enough that he's almost confirmed?

Want: 100%
No cuts. Besides, I have fond memories to pwning Falcon with him.

Happy Mask Salesman prediction: 0.2%
He'll go down just like the one who stole his mask.

Top 10 character as an AT: 35%
I guess Waddle Dee can fill the Assist Trophy role nicely.

 

[Erimir]

Fortunately, I didn't miss anything that interesting. I was working on a paper to submit for publication, and that's pretty much all I've done the past few days. But it's done now. Now to catch up on my regular schoolwork...

Kunio Kun:

Seems like he would probably get in if Sakurai wanted him. But he probably doesn't.

Kunio Kun chances: 0.01%

Kunio Kun want: 5%
I'd rather use a 3rd party slot on someone cooler. I'm mostly indifferent as I already got my most wanted 3rd party (and most wanted newcomer overall).

Solid Snake

Kojima's latest comment is well... inscrutable. It seems like something he'd say either way. I'm leaning towards it meaning Snake's in, since if he's not in, it sounds a little too earnest, whereas if he is in, it will seem funny instead.

Snake chances: 65%

Snake want: 0%
He belongs in Playstation All-Stars. The move set was good, although it wasn't really my style. Sorry.

Predictions:
Happy Mask Salesman: 0.5%
Top 10 character as an AT: 40%

Nominations:
5x Dr. Lobe

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Abstaining from Kunio-Kun, not familiar with the character at all.

Snake - 95%

I don't really understand why some of these ratings are incredibly low. I can understand the ratings around 60% through 40%, as well as those higher than that of course, and even a few a bit lower than 40%, but 0%? That's just ridiculous.

Kojima stated he didn't think it was likely, as he isn't working on the game. But it's clear that he wants Snake to return, and Sakurai has stated he has no cuts planned. And don't forget, Snake has become a huge fan favorite overall, and he was also the character that opened up the door to other third parties be able to get into Smash. Kojima, being a good friend of Sakurai, asked him to include Snake in Brawl, and if it weren't for him, we more than likely wouldn't have seen Sonic in Brawl.

Want - 100%

This is coming from someone who has never even played a Metal Gear game. I want him to return, not just because I want a roster with no cuts, but also because, in my opinion, Snake deserves to return. I want him to return because I liked him in Brawl, I want him to return for all of his fans, and I want him to return for Koijma.

Happy Mask Salesman prediction - 1.02%

No idea how exactly low he'll end up at.

Top Ten character as an Assist Trophy prediction - 42.75%


Spyro x5

 

[Erimir]

Kojima, being a good friend of Sakurai, asked him to include Snake in Brawl, and if it weren't for him, we more than likely wouldn't have seen Sonic in Brawl.

He asked back in Melee too, actually.

But I dunno if he's responsible for Sonic... There was massive fan demand for that, unlike for Snake.

 

[FalKoopa]

He asked back in Melee too, actually.

But I dunno if he's responsible for Sonic... There was massive fan demand for that, unlike for Snake.

I think he means that Snake's reveal was responsible for the massive fan demand which got Sonic in, as he opened the floodgates for 3rd parties.

 

[Deleted member]

Kunio-Kun/Alex and Snake have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Snake, check to see what you said on his day!

Kunio-Kun/Alex
Chance: 0%
Not legendary, no demand, too unknown, etc.
Want: 0%
No.

Now it's time for the main act...
Solid Snake
Chance: 11%
I am not confident in Snake... at all. Snake may be a veteran, but that doesn't save him at all.

Sakurai has stated he hasn't planned on making any cuts. Kojima was messing with us.

While Sakurai said that he hasn't planned to cut anyone, he also said that he doesn't have the time to bring every character in Smash back into SSB4. This mean that cuts are inevitable.
Kojima messing with others is definitely something that he is known for, but how about I play devil's advocate. Now, he smiled when he said this quote; this means that he knows something we don't and possibly that he could be in Smash. However, what if Kojima didn't expect a question like this during that livestream? What if he smiled at the irony or something? It's possible that he is going to give no hope to Snake returning to make his return more glorious, but he could possibly not be in the game.

Now, why is Snake at a low score?
Snake isn't that obvious to me as Sonic is. If 3rd parties are going to be a thing in future games, Sonic is practically guaranteed; Snake can't match to the hype, fandom, and demand Sonic has. Remember why Brawl was delayed? It was to put Sonic in the game. Snake was put in by personal request and wasn't demanded prior to E3 2006. Fans enjoyed his inclusion and are demanding for him to return; this helps in his favor. However, this barely changes the fact that he is in the most danger of getting cut.
Konami doesn't have the best relationship with Nintendo right now it seems like. They outright dismissed the Wii U and aren't putting any retail or digital games on the system. Oh wait... they are! But... they are old-school Castlevania games. Heck, a Castlevania game on the 3DS got an HD remake on the Xbox 360 and PS3... but not the Wii U. Same case with MGSV; every system is getting this game... except for the Wii U. Nintendo, on the other hand, are struggling right now with the Wii U. Snake would be a massive double-edged sword. While Snake will get mature fans to buy the Wii U, owners of the Wii U could potentially buy an Xbox or PlayStation to play MGSV, which would hurt Nintendo in the process. From a business standpoint, this is rather risky. While Sakurai can put in Snake on his own accord, I bet that there could be outside influences that are probably going to stand in and prevent his inclusion.
Lastly, we don't know how many 3rd party characters will get in. If there are 4, Snake will definitely get in. If there are 3, then he is absolutely screwed. Why? Because of Pac-Man. I bet that Pac-Man would be at a higher priority than Snake is. Namco is working on the game and I bet that they would like to get represented in Smash in some form and Pac-Man has a great amount of demand to him. Pac-Man is nearly inevitable at this point; he is most likely going to get in (90%), meaning Snake has to hope for 4 slots. Since Sakurai said that there won't be too many 3rd party characters, 3 seems like a safe bet.
Overall, I cannot see Snake get in Smash at all. I gave him an 11%; I was originally going to give him a 5%, but that would be unfair as I gave Bomberman a 10%. I can't do that. Still, he has the benefit of probably being the only Konami character that we will get for this game...
Want: 0%
I just want to reiterate something. I don't hate Snake. I like Snake. He is a freaking awesome character and I absolutely love his moveset! I still play as him sometimes in Brawl! Regardless... I want to see him go. When it comes to 3rd party characters, my mindset is to have 2 permanent members on the roster, being Sonic and Mega Man, and maybe have 1 or 2 rotate in between (if Bomberman makes it in, make that 3 permanent members).
Now, there are a multitude of reasons why I don't want Snake in Smash:
1. In a game about Nintendo's All-Stars, he isn't one at all and he is more of a Sony character. I can heavily justify Sonic and Mega Man; they both absolutely deserve to be in Smash and they are like Nintendo characters despite not being owned by them. Pac-Man, I can't justify too much, but he still has a rich history with Nintendo. Snake barely has any connection with Nintendo and yet he got in. It makes me mad as it contradicts what this game is about.
2. Snake getting cut gives me a good reason to go back and play Brawl. I was mystified when Mewtwo was cut as he shouldn't have been. The others, however, were fairly predictable cuts. If I want to play as Dr. Mario, Young Link, Pichu, and Roy, it gives me a good reason to play Melee. Snake getting cut would give me more of a reason to still play Brawl.
3. Let's say that what Kojima says is true and that Snake is not in the game. If that is the case, then I definitely don't want him to return. In Brawl, Sonic's addition not only delayed the game, but it resulted in Mewtwo and Roy getting cut. When I found this out, I was upset, but I didn't mind it in the end because Sonic was a character that I was wanting, hoping, and expecting to get in Smash. If Snake gets in Smash, he may potentially delay the game and might cut veterans that shouldn't be cut or result in removing a newcomer that we would have been looking forward to. The payoff to bring him back is not worth it in the long run.
4. I have a dream. My dream is Bomberman getting in Smash and fighting against Luigi, Mario, and Sonic, my childhood heroes. If Snake got cut, the pathway for Bomberman getting in Smash slightly opens for him. I've waited for 15 years for him to get into Smash; I want this wait to end already. Why did you die on me, Hudson? ;-;
That is why I want Snake to get cut. It's critical for me that he is. I will sympathize with the Snake fans and mains, but I want him gone.

And with that...
*Flame Shield*

Happy Mask Salesman Prediction: .22%
He's going to meet with a terrible fate.
RTC Top 10 AT Prediction: 41.95%
I'm curious on our want here. There bounds to be one character that we don't want to see be playable in the Top 10.

Looks like I got extra nominations, eh?
Nominations: Captain Rainbow 10x
Almost there!

 

[SonicMario]

Snake

Chance: 50%

I think this is the most fitting score. He's the least likely to return from Brawl. But at the same time, the fact he was in Brawl to begin with and was the very reason we have 3rd Parties in the first place has to count for something. He's either in or he's not. That's as simple as it gets.

Want: 100%

Besides no Cuts, I'd like him back since without his inclusion Sonic probably never would have been considered. In fact Snake was almost the only 3rd Party in Brawl. But now both Sonic and Megaman fans have alot to thank ol' Snake for. And even if he's not in SSB4. There should be a massive tribute to his inclusion from all the fans of all the third party inclusions.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Snake:

Chance: 90% - Kojima's smirk guys, he's pulling our asses. By the summer of 2013 no character had been cut according to Sakurai, by this point they'd have secured the rights to work with all the planned 3rd party characters, if Snake was cut, they'd know by then. Furthermore, Kojima's "if you're hearing this, please include Snake in Smash Bros." comment is really suspicious. Sakurai and Kojima are apparently close friends, I'm very certain that they'd have talked it over plenty of times by now, it really feels like he's just setting up a scene. We can also compare it to Sega's comment regarding Sonic's inclusion, and how they said that it's all up to Sakurai, while they obviously knew that he was in. Besides that Sakurai has commented how much he enjoyed Snake's inclusion. Snake is so incredibly unique and brought so much to Brawl, not only by himself, but also the stage, music, story mode involvement and codexes. Sakurai obviously loved having Snake in, he's not going to have him cut himself. I'm giving 10% off on the off-chance that Nintendo and Konami for some reason can't come to a beneficial conclusion for both, but with the Castlevania games on the Wii U VC and MGS3D on the 3DS I see no reason why they wouldn't collaborate to get Snake in.

Want: 100% - Like I said, he brought a ton to Brawl, much more than any other newcomer did. It'd be such a heavy casualty if he was cut.

Nominations:
5x <10% Chance Character Playable

 

[Rockaphin]

Kunio-Kun/Alex:
Can't Rate

Snake:
Chance: 35%
I actually think he'll be cut, but there's a huge possibility he won't.
Want: 1%
I actually do not care for Snake or his play style. This is mostly due to me never playing Metal Gear Solid.

Predictions:
Happy Mask Salesman: 0.43%
RTC Top 10 AT: 56.3%

Nominations:
Johto Trainer x5