Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Opossum]

The day hasn't ended because I had a power outage and I'm not sure of Habenero's whereabouts. So as of now, this day is officially over.

Hopefully we find Habanero soon. I made a wanted poster, if it helps. Maybe someone found him. :/

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

But Toon Link doesn't play the Inverted Song of Time... Young Link does.

This is why I miss the classic NES. If someone had a green clothes (read: green pixels) and a sword (read: stick... though possibly a colorful one) they were just straight up Link. Now we have Toon Link, Young Link, Classic Link, Link of the Neoclassical eEra, etc.

 

[Groose]

Hold the phone, folks. You thought Roy and Pac Man scored poorly in want? Well, Mii only mustered a rather sad 23.26% overall want (27.40% Smashboards, 12.37% Gamefaqs). What makes it even sadder is the fact that you thought that he would probably be in the game; he scored a 54.68% overall chance (57.08% Smashboards, 48.55% Gamefaqs). Overall, it was just a rather depressing day for Mii.

According to your predictions yesterday, it looks like it will be an even more depressing day for Owain, our character for today. Although his hungry-sword hand has an appetite for action, it's already clear that there will be a lot of doubters. Feel free to comment on his likelihood today.

Also, please predict how people will rate Takamaru in tomorrow's game. Doing so can earn you extra nominations.

The winners of the extra nominations today are A Shameful Lucas and Pholicious. Have fun with an extra five. And please don't add them to Awakening reps.

Gamefaqs.

 

[Opossum]

Owain, Owain, Owain...

Likelihood: 0.01%
The only reason he's not a solid 0% is because he's at least eligible. But let's face it, he'll be lucky to get a passing mention.

Want: 43%

That being said, a Swordmaster could be cool. Plus, Owain's funny as hell. I'll give him some sympathy here.

Predicting a 46.7% for Takamaru tomorrow.

Nominating Ice Climbers x5

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Owain: 0%

He ain't happening.

Want: 0%
Who is he? He's from Awakening right? Eh.

Takamaru Prediction: 57%
I think people think he has a good shot, though many people will downvote him due to relative obscurity.

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x3
Ice Climbers
Lucario

 

[FalKoopa]

Wow, GameFAQs REALLY hates Mii's.

Owain
Likelihood: 0%
A random FE side character will NOT get in. Period. I'll be suprised if he even gets a trophy.

Want: 0%

Dear Owain,
There are plenty of lords fighting already for the limited FE slots. We will not be needing your services. I'm surprised you even made it this far.

FalKoopa

Takamaru:
Predicting 65%
SmashBoards will rate him highly, but not too high, I think. Plus, I wish I knew what GameFAQs thinks about Takamaru.

Nominations: Lyn x 5

 

[XenothiumX]

Owain Likelihood: 1%
I'm not going to say that he doesn't have a chance just a slim chance

Owain want: 0%
I think he makes the Mii look good!

Takamaru prediction: 40%

Nominations:
Sandbag x5

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Owain
Likelihood: 0% I'm sure everyone else has covered this by now.
Want: 0% No, just nope. I'd rather see even Pacman or Mii, and I really dont want either of those two.

Takamaru: 45%

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[Groose]

Owain Chances: 2% All in all, I can't see him getting in unless if there are at least 6-8 Fire Emblem slots in Smash----and I doubt there will be more than 4 slots available. He's behind Marth, Chrom, Ike, Lucina, Roy, Robin, Lyn in terms of importance and demand. Maybe Sakurai decides to make this odd of a choice; he almost definitely does not.

Owain Want: 10% I've played one Fire Emblem game. It is not Awakening. Unlike Lucina, Robin, and Chrom, who I have taken note of because of their importance to Smash discussion, I had never heard of Owain before I started manning Rate Their Chances. I'm not a huge fan of having a character I've never seen before in a matchup of All-Stars.

Takamaru Prediction: 41.37% People will cite his game in Nintendo Land and his eastern appeal, but no one will consider him an absolute lock.

Nominate Tingle x5! Kooloo-Limpah!

 

[yummyorange]

Owain Likelihood-0.01%
Haha no

Owain Want-100%
Yes please!!

Takamru-51%

 

[TumblrFamous]

Owain Chances: 3.5%
Who the hell is Owain and why did he get before Lyn and Chrom? Anyway, I don't think he'll get in. Rather, I'm pretty sure he won't be in the game. No.

Owain Want: 3%
Um... haven't played Awakening, he seems pretty generic.

Takamaru: 58%
He has a pretty good chance. No one is a lock, although we're all in a pretty unanimous decision that Mewtwo will get in. But, I think a lot of people in the East and West want him.

Nominations:
Toon Zelda/ Tetra x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Owain:

Likelihood: 0% - I don't even know who he is, and I'm following the Smash scene very sharply, so that's saying something. Seems like he's someone only FE fans really know.

Want: 0% - Again, don't know him, and honestly, not that I want to sound like I'm on a high horse, but if I don't know him then he's definitely not a Nintendo All-Star. There are many other and better FE reps for that.

Takamaru Prediction: 53%

Nominations:
5x Ike

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelyhood: 0%
Want: 20%

Takumaru: 72%

Karate Joe (Rhythm Heaven) x5

 

[sunfallSeraph]

Owain:

Likelihood: 0.1% Like others have said he's strictly within the realm of possibility but has basically no chance due to being unknown in a sea of FE characters who are known and wanted.

Want: 0% - FE is a tough series to pick for this time around, but I don't think choosing someone with no visibility is gonna do it. If they're gonna do that, they may as well at least choose a mage or archer or some other class that would have something new to offer in terms of gameplay.

Takamaru Prediction: 40%

Nominations:
5x Zoroark

 

[Toxicroaker]

Owain: 0.1%... just... no... please... who even got him up here?...

want: 5% meeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh................ nnnnnnnnnnoooooooooooooo?.............. no.

Tama**** (whatever his name is): 43%

Nomz: x5 WaDdLe DeE
edit: I just realized how drunk this post looks lol

 

[@tomic]

Owain:
Chances: 5% - lmbo no. He is not one of the main characters in Awakening and as he's another sword wielder it's hard to imagine that he would bring much new to the moveset table. The list of potential FE participants is quite large so it'd be next to impossible for a side-character like Owain to get a slot.

Want: 100% - That said, I would love to see him because he's one of my favorite FE characters. He wouldn't likely bring a unique moveset, but he'd bring a lot of personality for sure. Much more so than Chrom to be frank who is also a generic sword-wielder and isn't very interesting as a main character imo. Owain is at least amusing and would probably have some of the best taunts in the game.


Takamaru Prediction: 35% - I know a lot of people want him, but I'm not sure how likely people think he is. Pretty much a blind guess.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Owain
Chance: 0% - There are maybe 45 Fire Emblem characters that have a better chance than him.
Want: 0% - I never used him in either of my two Awakening play throughs, I'm definitely not using him in Smash.

Takamaru prediction: 59%

Nominations: Chrom x5.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Owain: 0.01%
If Sakurai eats his breakfast tomorrow morning and finds "Put Owain into Smash Bros 4" written in the rice I still only give him a 50/50 chance of getting in.

Want: MINUS 90%
Negatives may be mean, but honestly I would loose faith in the game if he was a playable character in smash.
I like the character in awakening, but he's not going to be in brawl 2.

Takamaru: 86%
I honestly have no idea, so I went for the year the game was released for the fun of it.

Slime*5

 

[TheCreator]

Owain. lol why
Prediction 0%
Want 0%
How did this even happen? lol
Prediction for Takamaru: 55%
Tingle x3
Dillon x2

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Owain
Chance: 1% I don't think I really need to explain this. Considering I round to the nearest % I should probably give him 0... but maybe i'm being a smidge generous. Idk, maybe Sakurai will go crazy.
Want: 6% I wouldn't hate him, which puts him at far higher want then a Mii. I think I even want him more than pac-man whom I believe I gave 5%. Not that I really know who he is, but eh FE characters are cool. That said, I actually kinda want to get into FE thus I want important characters.

Takamaru Prediction: 45% He seems pretty popular, but not so popular as to be an obvious choice. Personally I don't think his chances are very good, just because he has so much competition from other obscure Nintendo characters, but I suspect quite a few people will beg to differ.

Nominations:
Geno x5

 

[MargnetMan23]

Chances .5% yeah there are quite a few fire emblem awakening characters that have a chance but this guy simply isn't significant enough in any right and it's possible to not meet him at all if you don't have Lissa marry any one XD If Sakurai really wanted to put that guy in the game he could though. Or maybe Owain for some reason becomes the star for the next game? *shrugs* it's not physically impossible but it's very unlikely

Want: 15% He has a cool personality in the game and I accidentally shipped him with his cousin XD (don't ask) but frankly if we wanted to add relatively unimportant fire emblem awakening characters Tharja would at least be more unique XD

Takamaru prediction 53.6% *shrugs* I personally think his chances are more then 50 but we'll see.

Nomz x3 Jigglypuff
x2 Waddle Dee

 

[FalKoopa]

he's not going to be in brawl.

Sorry, I couldn't unsee it.

 

[Fastblade5035]

Owain : 1%
I only nominated Owain as a joke, but uh... Maybe in Smash 12?

Want: 100%
Screw Roy, gimme a good royal swordsman who actually has a personality.

Takamaru; 45%
Just a rough estimate.

Noms;
Mr. Resetti x 5

 

[ToothiestAura]

Owain
Likelihood: 3%
Want: 80%
While Owain is fantastic character - he has a crazy hero complex and names his attacks - there is almost no chance that a child character would be playable (if it isn't Lucina). Since the rest of the children characters are recruitable only in sidequests and are not important to the game's story it seems unlikely. I feel a parent generation character would be a far more likely candidate. A Swordmaster would be a nice change of pace from a Lord, but honestly just is not different enough. Astra would be wonderful final smash, though.
Gaius, Chrom, Avatar, or even Lucina are 40X more likely to be playable characters.

 

[TheMasonOrder]

I find it ironic that we're rating this guy on his birthday. HAPPY BIRTHDAY OWAIN!

Likelihood: 0% - He's poplar, but not as important as Chrom and Lucina.

Want: 48% - Owain is one of my favorite characters in Awakening, but he's not on my MUST HAVE list like Eirika, Tharja, or Roy. Maybe if Fire Emblem gets it own fighting game?

Takamaru's Prediction: 64%

Nominations:
Eirika 5x

 

[Erimir]

Should you make a thread over at GameFAQs, Groose? If there are no GameFAQs Owain fans inflating his score, how can I have the most accurate prediction?

Owain...

Popularity: Huh? Enough to get nominations, I suppose.

Relevancy: Not very. Not a main character or a recurring character.

Design: He's from FE, so yet another sword wielder.

Roster: Well, at least he doesn't have blue hair.

Competition: Blown away by Roy, Chrom, Lucina, Lyn, etc.

Owain chances: 0.5%
Minor one-shot character is minor. I won't be giving a 0% because, you know, it's possible Sakurai or one of the other important developers has played FE Awakening and loves Owain or something like that and thus really pushes for his inclusion. Very unlikely, but possible.

Owain want: 10%
(50% is indifference) I don't hate him, but I don't think he deserves to be in the game.

Takamaru prediction: 45%
I don't see why people think he's going to be rated that highly. Sakurai likes to bring back retro characters, but it's not like he only has 2 or 3 choices, even if Takamaru is among the more likely of them because of Nintendo Land. But I'll inflate my prediction correspondingly.

Nominations:
5x Lucario

Owain
Likelihood: 3%
Gaius, Chrom, Avatar, or even Lucina are 40X more likely to be playable characters.

You realize 3% x 40 = 120%

right?

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Owain: 0%
Want: 0%
Takamaru:65%
Nominations:
Lyn x 2
Lucas x 1
Lucario x 2

 

[Arcanir]

Chance-0.1% Popular, but the lords easily outrank him in importance and in some cases even popularity.

Want-1% I liked him in Awakening but I don't support him.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Owain's likelihood. How do I put this nicely? 0.25%
Want: Same. 0.25%

prediction de la Takamaru - 56.68%

and nominate Saki Amamiya x5

 

[Nitro21]

Likelihood: 1%
He isn't likely at all since he isn't a main character, and all the lords have priority over him. But if they were to choose a side character I say he would be among the most likely along with Tharja and Anna since he is very popular. He could also be the main character of a future FE.

Want: 100%
Yeah it is pretty obvious that I want him, I honestly think he would be a ton of fun.

Takamaru:75%

 

[Sebz]

Owain ~0%
Oh boy, I can't wait to see the results for this.

Want ~0%
If somebody from Awakening makes it into the game it will most probably be Chrom, though my pick would be a customizable avatar.

Takamaru ~65%
I actually think he has a very good shot of making it into the game, though detractors will probably deny it.

Nomination
Genesect x5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Owain:

Chances: 0%
I would be honestly really surprised if he made it. I think there are much better Fire Emblem characters than him, such as Lyn and Chrom.

Want: 0%
Yeaaah... Not really cool

Takamaru Prediction: 42%

Nominations: Zoroark x5

 

[Groose]

Should you make a thread over at GameFAQs, Groose? If there are no GameFAQs Owain fans inflating his score, how can I have the most accurate prediction?

I don't have a Gamefaqs account. Habenero manages the Gamefaqs threads.

Ah, screw it. He doesn't seem to be on, so I've acquired a Gamefaqs thread and am posting it now: LINK.

 

[Gam3rALO]

Owain...??????
0.05%
VERY LOW chance. How are we even rating him?
Want: 0%
NO WAY!!!!!!

prediction for Takamaru: 68.34%
People will realize his recent game in Nintendo Land and his popularity.
Nominations:
Chrome x5

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Owain

Likeliness: 0%
Everyone summed it up well.

Want: 8%
I didn't know who he was until I looked him up. He looks interesting and could have a UMvC Vergil-esque play style and move set which would be fairly interesting. But I would prefer Ike, Chrom, Roy, Lucina, Michaiah, the Black Knight, or Lyn over him.

Takamaru
82%

Nomz: Nightmare x5

 

[Groose]

Presenting the Gamefaqs link.

We already have a 31.25% chance average on Gamefaqs, guys.

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Owain 1%: Im not the biggest fire emblem fan, but i have legitametly NEVER heard of this guy, and i know my nintendo franchises extremelly well.

Want 0%: I just dont think he deserves to be in a game about the nintendo all stars when he is clearly not anywhere near all star level.

Takamaru: 76%

Nominations:
Bomberman x5

 

[Starbound]

Owain's Chances: 0.01%

Only gets it because he technically meets all the requirements for Smash.

Want: 5%

Funny guy but he's not fit for the game

Predicting 64% for takamaru.

nomz: x5 Ice climbers

 

[Groose]

Owain 1%: Im not the biggest fire emblem fan, but i have legitametly NEVER heard of this guy, and i know my nintendo franchises extremelly well.

Owain has only ever appeared in Fire Emblem: Awakening, which came out just last year. He is not among the game's most important characters, coming in as part of the child generation. Even so, he is a memorable character and has a cult following.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Owain: 0% Who?
Want: 0% Who?

Takamaru: 85% - Being a revived Retro character, I think he has a fair chance this time around.

Nominations:
Lucario x3
Wolf x2