Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Smasher 101]

@ Gunla wins the extra nominations today.

Plasm Wraith's chances: 0% - We're not likely to get another Pikmin character. Even if we did, it would be one of the other main characters.
Want: 0% - No thank you.

Lyn's chances: 5% - Not completely out of the running, but I doubt she'll get in over Roy or an Awakening rep.
Want: 30% - Used to support her, not really anymore.

Black Mage preiction: 0.97%
Pokemon Trainer prediction: 84.68%

Chibi-Robo x5

 

[Pacack]

Plasm Wraith:

Chance & Want: ABSTAIN
I don't know enough about its role in Pikmin 3 to comment, so I'll let everyone else decide. And no one spoil me, k? Put your Pikmin 3 spoilers in collapse tags, please.

Lyndis:

Chance: 6.5%
Lyn's a tricky one. She's a fairly popular, unique Lord in the fire emblem series, but her time seems to have passed and she has way too much competition from the likes of Roy (20%), Chrom (25%), Robin (30%), and even the dark horse candidates of Tiki (8%), Anna (5%), and other older Lords (3%). Factor in that Takamaru or Goroh could use a similar sword style to her and I have to deduct 2 or 3 more points...then I come up with my chance score.

Want: 14%
I'd rather Tiki (100%) or Robin (66%) by a long shot, but I'd enjoy her inclusion and playstyle, so she's up there with Anna (17%) and Chrom (11%) for me. (She's technically after Eirika's 100% too, but she has no chance, so whatever.)

Predictions:

Black Mage: 4.33%
Pokemon Trainer: 84%

Nominations: Diskun x2, Non-Character Hanafuda Representation x3

(I'm feeling artsy today with the colors. Expect this to become a thing.)

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Dang. I thought I'd finally get them.

Plasmawrath: 0%
Sakurai: "Who is this?"

Want: 0%
I don't even know anything about Metroid.

Lyn: 0.6%
Old

Want: 10%
Dies in 2 hits thanks to no HP or defense. No thanks.

Black Mage prediction: 0.68%

Nominate:
Shantae x4
Gundam x1

 

[Pacack]

Want: 0%
I don't even know anything about Metroid.

about Metroid

Metroid

Plasm Wraith is Pikmin, friend.

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

*cracks knuckles*

Plasm Wraith

Chance: 25%- It isn't very likely. I think the most likely Pikmin character(if any) is Louie, and even Alph is probably more likely. The reason for 20% however, is that the Plasm Wraith is recent(because "muh recency"), popular(in the Pikmin fandom at least), and is extremely unique, something Sakurai is looking for this time. I could see it happening, but it probably won't. (Really trying not to let my bias affect this)

Want: 100%- My most wanted newcomer. It's just so unique, interesting, and all around cool. I loved the battle with it in Pikmin 3, and its moveset would work great in Smash Bros.

For more info about the Plasm Wraith, check out the Plasm Wraith Support Thread in my signature. (shameless self promotion)

Lyn

Chance: 20%- Chrom, Lucina, and Robin exist.

Want: 20%- Not really interested.

Predictions

Black Mage: 2.6%

Pokémon Trainer(as in the one from Brawl?): 65%

Nominations

Louie x5



Also, I'm just FEELING the Plasm Wraith love around here(Please don't score lower than Yarne and Owain(even though that's not possible)).

Titan Dweevil is 1000 times the final boss that Plasm Wraith will ever hope to be.

At least the Plasm Wraith was actually difficult.

 

[NickerBocker]

Plasm Wraith

No
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Lyn

She's fallen from grace. her chance in the spotlight has come and gone, and her AT status is probably as good as its gonna get. Too much competition from characters like Roy, Chrom and Robin. although she would be pretty interesting, a nimble user of the katana, she's has too much against her to really count.

Chance: 8%
Want: 33%

Black Mage: 2.34%
Pokemon Trainer: 91%

Nominations:
Zelda Newcomer x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Plasm Wraith: 0% Nope
Want: 20%

Lyn: 3% Her time is up.
Want: 5%

Black Mage: 1.72%
Pokemon Trainer: 89.12%

x5 Cookie Country

 

[Xenigma]

Based on the points I've made, I'd say that there is a 20% of no DK newcomer, a 20% chance of two DK newcomers, and an 80% chance of one DK newcomer.

The funny part about this is it makes perfect sense if you assume that it's 80% for one or more DK newcomers, therefore including the 20% chance of two newcomers As it's actually worded...well, it's 120% interesting math, that's for sure.

Plasm Wraith - 0%
The end boss of one Pikmin game that basically no one except for Pikmin fans has ever heard of. Yeah, that's not going to become a playable Smash character.
Want - 0% - Waste of a slot.

Lyn - 1%
Her only serious chance was Brawl when she was still fairly relevant, and we all know where she actually ended up. The one hope she could cling to at this point is Sakurai giving her the nod purely to acknowledge how FE7 was the first internationally released game of the series, but again, he didn't do it the first time, why should he do it now? She also at least used to be the frontrunner for a female FE rep, although even that minor advantage is negated thanks to Awakening's Lucina. She's not quite impossible, especially since she did manage an AT nod, but she's very, very unlikely.
Want - 15% - I have a bit of nostalgia for her, but I would far prefer to see Lucina make the cut.

Black Mage Prediction - 2.4%
Let's see, Slime's most recent rating was...4.8%? And that's lower than its first rating? Huh. Well, I'll predict half that for the Black Mage since I doubt it gets so lucky without some very vocal supporters.

Pokemon Trainer Prediction - 85%
Considering how the recent "Trainer with no Trainer" concept went, I expect Trainer himself to actually see a small rating boost from before.

Nominations
Tetra x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

At least the Plasm Wraith was actually difficult.

Not really, a team of 100 Rock Pikmin works miracles against Plasm Wraith. You also don't have to fight through a hazard infested 14 floor cave to get to it.

 

[FalKoopa]

Looks like I have to update both the Chance AND Want chart. Oh boy. Well, it's breeze to do in paint, but still.

Plasm Wraith:
Likelihood: 0%
He's a boss in one Pikmin game. He's behind Louie and the Pikmin 3 protagonists.

Want: 0%
Nope.

Lyn:
Likelihood: 8%
Let's see... She's behind Roy, Chrom, Lucina and Robin. That's too much of a competition to make the cut.

Want: 100%
Yep, I'd love to see her playable. It stems mostly from nostalgia and a her appearance in Brawl as an AT.

Black Mage: 2.5%
I'm interested to see how he performs in want.

Pokémon Trainer: 87%

EDIT: CHART UPDATES!
Chance Chart

Want Chart:

 

[Groose]

Based on the points I've made, I'd say that there is a 20% of no DK newcomer, a 20% chance of two DK newcomers, and an 80% chance of one DK newcomer. I can't say for certain that there will be a newcomer because there are limited slots available and strong cases can be made for other non-DK characters. Even with this observation, please note that I say there's a stronger chance of a DK newcomer than there is of getting Little Mac, Miis, Pac-Man, or Palutena. There is a 20% chance of two DK characters because the franchise has multiple strong candidates for a roster spot. Now, there are really three candidates and three candidates only for this slot. I now see the breakdown as follows

...?

What's... what's with those posts? Are you saying I made a math mistake?

I know my math, you know! I did graduate from Junior High School, after all!

Someone has to believe me! My math is right! I'd never make an error like that one!​

The funny part about this is it makes perfect sense if you assume that it's 80% for one or more DK newcomers, therefore including the 20% chance of two newcomers As it's actually worded...well, it's 120% interesting math, that's for sure.

See! This guy knows how to do it! That's exactly what I meant to say.

So next time you guys start doubting my math skills, look for typos first. Because my post now reads:​

Based on the points I've made, I'd say that there is a 20% of no DK newcomer, a 20% chance of two DK newcomers, and an 80% chance of at least one DK newcomer. I can't say for certain that there will be a newcomer because there are limited slots available and strong cases can be made for other non-DK characters. Even with this observation, please note that I say there's a stronger chance of a DK newcomer than there is of getting Little Mac, Miis, Pac-Man, or Palutena. There is a 20% chance of two DK characters because the franchise has multiple strong candidates for a roster spot. Now, there are really three candidates and three candidates only for this slot. I now see the breakdown as follows

...that was actually the last section I wrote for that post, and what Xenigma pointed out was actually my original intention. 20% chance of zero, 60% chance of exactly one, 20% chance of exactly two, 0% chance of three or more.

 

[Deleted member]

"Good thing I'm here. No? Anyone?"
That just sums up Reyn's day.
Plasm Wraith and Lyn have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Lyn before, check back on her day to see what you said!

Plasm Wraith
Chance: 0%
Plasm Wraith? Really? There is no way that Plasm Wraith will get added before Louie or Alph, both of which are fantastic candidates for a second Pikmin rep. I'm not even sure if Pikmin is ready for a second rep yet. If there was one, it would be one of those two… not Plasm Wraith.
Want: 0%
What a horrible idea and a tremendous waste of a spot.

Lyn
Chance: 5%
Her time is up. While she is one of the first lords introduced to America, her popularity failed her to earn a spot on Brawl's roster. It gave her Assist Trophy status… but that is most likely all that she is going to get at this point. If Fire Emblem: Awakening didn't do so well, then I bet that she would have another chance in this game. But, since Fire Emblem: Awakening helped save Fire Emblem, many characters have risen above her. We have characters like Chrom, Lucina, and Robin and they all have better chances than her. Then, we have veterans Ike and Roy; Ike is still popular among fans while Roy is at least demanded to come back. She is a giant dark horse candidate because if we were to get a Fire Emblem newcomer, it would be someone from Awakening.
Want: 0%
Again, the characters I want from Fire Emblem are characters that I want for the wrong reasons. I am disinterested in every Fire Emblem character that is not named Marth or Ike.

Black Mage Prediction: 1.42%
Out of all of the Final Fantasy characters, Black Mage has some better chances than most. Then again, we are dealing with Square Enix here.

Pokemon Trainer Prediction: 79.50%
I see that there could be a drop.

Nominations: Zael 5x

If someone were to start nominating *THAT* Goku, it may provide for a very, very interesting day. I think I would allow the nominations to fly if there weren't a bunch of objections to it...

I have no objections to rating THAT Goku. I think that we need to bring back HIM to run DBZ Goku's day.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Plasm Wraith:
Chance: 0%
Just isn't happening as a playable character. A boss however? I can totally see that.

Want: 1%
I actually like the design, hence the 1%, but if we must have a second Pikmin rep I'd want Louie far more first...depending on how he was implemented he could actually be very different from Olimar.

Lyn:
Chance: 3%
She's popular, and certainly deserving, but she has to fight off stiff competition from popular newcomer lord; Chrom, Melee Vet favourite Roy, the more unique Robin, and now another insanely popular female FE lord with more relevance to today's FE playing crowd; Lucina.

However outside these four characters, Lyn has the best chance...unless they decide to go with a reoccurring female character like Anna or Tiki instead which could happen...hmm.

Poor Lyn has a lot of obstacles in her way. Luckily she has popularity on her side.

Want: 10%

Sadly though that popularity isn't particularly with me. I want a fire weilder for FIRE Emblem this time round. Yes, it may seem minor, but it basically means I'd pick Roy or Robin over a samurai style character for FE...actually she may have to compete with Takamaru too for the sword style...

I'm not sure if anyone can reasonably expect her with so much competition.

Black Mage prediction: 4%

Trainer prediction: 90%
With Lucario and Toon Link of all characters returning, I can't see them cutting either the protagonist of Pokemon(who has a unique enough gimmick, it just needs tweaking) or the most popular Pokemon in the damn world in Charizard. I'm hoping people agree with my sentiments.

Nominations:
Playable Bosses X 5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

wow, missed the last two days. . . I've been too busy
Plasma wraith: - 0.00000001%
who? *checks too see* nope no chance
want - 0%
nope
Lyn - 7.25%
ah poor lyn, she has serious competition from chrom, robin, roy, and anna, with only popularity on her side, she has a low chance, a chance still, but a low one
want - 50%
like I said before, as long as ike comes back, I couldn't care who from fire emblem makes it in (even chrom)
Black mage - 0.40%
. . .
PT - 93.22%
an unique gimmick (needs tweaking, but still unique and interesting), along with being a popular character himself, and that's not including that he has the most popular Pokémon with him, along with likely cuts being confirmed, he shouldn't be going anywhere I hope people realize that
Nominations:

X5

 

[FalKoopa]

What's... what's with those posts? Are you saying I made a math mistake?

I know my math, you know! I did graduate from Junior High School, after all!

Someone has to believe me! My math is right! I'd never make an error like that one!​

See! This guy knows how to do it! That's exactly what I meant to say.

So next time you guys start doubting my math skills, look for typos first.​

​

When something smells, it's the Butz.

 

[God Robert's Cousin]

Plasm Wraith - 2%
It's relevant to the Pikmin series in that it's from the most recent game, and it would be certainly be a very unique heavyweight character, but the fact of the matter is that it's an outright unknown character outside of those who have beaten Pikmin 3 with no requests and no major history. The only way Plasm Wraith could ever be playable is if it makes more appearances in the Pikmin series. Even, then Louie and Alph stand much more in the way of that.
Want - 10%
That said, I certainly wouldn't mind a playable Plasm Wraith, but I don't feel it deserves to be in Smash Bros. nor do I want him over Louie.

If it was to be a boss, on the other hand, it'd be a damn cool one and a lot more likely to appear in Smash Bros. at that, at which point I'd judge it 50% and 100%.

Lyn - 10%
Lyn simply isn't relevant to the series anymore. Beyond being playable in one game, being an Assist Trophy in Brawl, and being DLC material in Fire Emblem Awakening, there is simply nothing to distinguish her from the other multitude of Fire Emblem characters waiting for a playable spot in Smash Bros., including but not limited to Roy, Chrom, Anna, and Robin. She simply has way too much competition and not enough distinction to see her as ever playable this time around.
Want - 1%
More female representation is nice... That's about it, I guess. I'd rather have Isaac/Takamaru/Samurai Goroh for another sword-user, Lip/Palutena/Tetra for another female character, Chrom/Robin for another Fire Emblem character, and Anna for another female sword-using Fire Emblem character.

Black Mage - 5%
Would be my preferred Square Enix character if we got any, but there are already countless other requests going to Cloud, Sora, Crono, and Slime in SE alone, let alone the other 3rd-party competition it has to face. Black Mage isn't happening.

Pokemon Trainer Red - 90%
He was a good concept for a Pokemon character that wasn't simply just another Pokemon. With some tweaks, he'd play a lot better too. Red is otherwise the perfect trainer to represent the series and Charizard is one of the most popular Pokemon to this day right up there with Pikachu. I expect him to return if possible. The only roadblock is, of course, that it takes longer to develop Red and his three Pokemon than any other character, save maybe Rosalina.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Plasma Wraith Chance: 1.5Z%
Plasma Wraith Want: 50% Meh, but I think his abilities would be really cool to have in playable context.
Lyn Chance: 3.5%
Lyn Want: 5% Rather have Takamaru.
Black Mage Prediction: 0.93%
PT prediction: 78.9%

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Plasm Wraith: 0/0

Nope, even as a boss Emperor Bulblax is more likely, imo!


Lyn: 0/0

Nope, even as an AT newer characters are more likely, imo!



Black Mage: 1.6%

Nope, even as a 3rd party Slime is more likely, imo!


Pokémon Trainer: 92.4%

Yep, even as three Pokémon Mewtwo is less likely, imo!



Fatal Frame Representation*5

Yep, even as a nomination Yarne is more sensible, imo!

 

[Aqua Rock X]

My "research" was a YouTube video.

PLASM WRAITH

Chance: 0.1% - Naw.

Want: 0 - It'd be a better boss.

LYNDIS

Chance: 5% - Not really.

Want: 55% - She'd be kinda cool.

Black Mage Prediction: 3% - A front runner for SE but that isn't saying much.

Pokemon Trainer Red Prediction: 90% - Pretty Good.

Nominations:
Chef Kawasaki x5

 

[Erimir]

Plasm Wraith

Hmmmm... who?

PW chance: 0.01%

PW want: 4%

Lyn

Not a lot has changed, except that Marth has been revealed, and Sakurai has expressed more favorable comments towards female characters. But Marth was already assumed to be returning, so that doesn't change anything. On the other hand, I know more about the other options for FE, so I'm less inclined to increase her score since some better options have been brought to my attention.

Lyn chance: 2.3%

Lyn want: 35%
Meh.

Black Mage prediction: 1.5%
Pokemon Trainer prediction: 83%

Nominations:
Zelda newcomer x5

 

[loganhogan]

I'm back! Time to rate.

Plasma:
Chance 9.99% Trophy or boss material at best.
want 20%

Lyn:
Chance 12% She will probably stay a trophy i'm worried she won't return as an AT. If Sakurai ignores Chrom, Roy, and Robin maybe she would stand a chance otherwise I doubt.
Want: 90%

Nominate
Isa Jo x3
Sheriff x2


Predict
Black mage .9%
Trainer 90%

 

[Gunla]

Plasm Wrath of the crappiest rating ever

Not even gonna try today:

Chances: Why.... just why..... 00.01%

Want: No... just no.... 00.00%

Lyn- OH MY GOD A FEMALE LORD?

Pros
+She's a Lord
+Main character of her game
Cons
-AWAKNENING AWAKENING (This is pretty much the easiest way to describe it. Awakening murders everything but Roy.)

OVERALL RATING: 2.3%

WANT: 100%- She is my favorite lord other than Ike.

Black Mage Prediction: 1.3%- If we got a Square character, it'd be Mr. Friendship is Power, or Crono. Hopefully Crono (because PS1 wasn't a Nintendo console, freaking Chrono Cross HAD to be PS1 exclusive... )

PT/Red Prediction: 95.5%- Are you kidding me? That guy is a legendary gimmick that Sakurai loves to death. Like HELL we're losing it! It sucked, yes, but it was pretty cool as an idea!

Ridley X5

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

overrated blob.

Oh the irony.

Not really, a team of 100 Rock Pikmin works miracles against Plasm Wraith. You also don't have to fight through a hazard infested 14 floor cave to get to it.

100 Yellow Pikmin with Spicy Spray completely murder the Titan Dweevil. I will give you the Dream Den thing though.

Anyway, while I am slightly disappointed with the Plasm Wraith's wratings(c wut I did dere) being pretty bad(with someone even thinking it was from Metroid), I also found it interesting to see what the average serious Smash fan thought of it, so for that, I thank you guys. Hopefully Louie does a little better.

And I leave you with this:

 

[Sid-cada]

Plasm Wraith

Chance - 0.05% - Maybe, if they don't want another captain, they will pick him. Still, even if they want another non-captain, I'd give the edge to someone else.

Want - 10% - I'd prefer the Titan Dweevil, actually. I'd rather play as a giant mecha-bug that attacks with household appliances than some blob monster.


Lyn

Chance - 15% - A 10% drop from last time. To be honest, 25% is my go-to number for when I don't exactly know what to rate, but I know is unlikely, but I think now she has less of a chance. She's got some potential, sure, and would please some fans, but she's simply so badly outcompeted by characters that are more wanted than her and are more likely to get IS's approval.

Want - 40% - No change. I don't have much of a grudge against her, but I am convinced that she would get in the way of Roy, and I think Takamaru is better as a Samurai.


Prediction

Black Mage - 5.75% - He shouldn't do quite as well as Blue Slime, but should still put up a decent fight.

Pokémon Trainer - 89% - I'm expecting a confidence boost due to the reveal of Rosalina.


Nominations
Nutty Noon Stage X5

 

[McDuckletts]

Plasm Wraith
Chance/Want: 0%
What a random character.

Lyn
Chance: 20%
I think all of you are underestimating Lyn's chances. Yes, she does have serious competition from Chrom and Robin, but I still feel she has a good chance. What if they feel that an Awakening rep is unnecessary (which it is imo)? Well then, if that's the case, then Lyn seems pretty likely, don't you think? Not to mention Lyn is one of the most iconic and popular lords, and was the very first lord that we westerners got to play as. Not to mention Lyn just seems like a character with a lot more unique potential. Unlikely, but I'm still keeping my head up high.
Want: 75%
The only Fire Emblem newcomer I actually care about.

Predictions
Black Mage: 3.31%
Pokemon Trainer: 92.47%

Nomination: Shadow the Hedgehog X5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Black Mage: 2.56%
PT: 95.42%
YuYuKi Goku x 5

Now that that's over with...

Ah, today will be interesting. It seems we'll be rating Lyn. First time in a while I've voted on a serious FE candidate that I like.

HEY! I RESENT THAT!

No one cares.

Did you just say the team of me and Yarne isn't serious? Blasphemy! Sword hand twitches...

Y-yeah! What Owain said!

Oh god. I'm stuck with 3 lunatics today. Please let sanity come soon...

You asked for sanity?

Hey Lyn.

Hi Roy.

Well, now let's proceed to the rating people. Since Groose is getting all high and fancy with his Phoenix Wright cases, I'll 1-up him today.

Fire Emblem Court is now in Session! The defendant, Lyndis, will be facing against the prosecution of Roy, Chrom, Yarne, and Owain! Prosecution, you may begin

Thank you. I will be discussing how Lyndis is not as unique as a candidate such as mysel-

Chrom, you speak of me not being a unique character. However, look at your own uniquess. Your defining trait, as mentioned in a previous post, is “having your sword light up blue”

I do not see why my uniqueness is coming into question during a court about Lyn.

Objection overruled. You mentioned yourself in the uniqueness debate. Lyndis, continue.

As I was saying, my uniqueness stands out vastly compared to yours. As shown by ManlySpirit's moveset, I have vast moveset potential compared to you.

Grr.. she's better than I thought. I need to play my trump card now.

Now then, my major point here will be that...

YOU ARE NOT RECENT ENOUGH!

MUH RECENCY is nothing but a horrid argument that does not affect character choices in any way.

Objection overruled. Despite my distaste for the argument, it still holds an effect, especially in franchises that rotate casts like FE.

Thank you. Now, as I was saying, your only major role was in Fire Emblem, which was released 11 years ago. Due to the influx of new characters and games introduced, you are not a recent enough character to the FE franchise. I will now turn this over to Roy.

A surprisingly sane argument from Chrom. Good job. But I still hate you

Alright, I will be arguing here how Lyn is not a popular Fire Emblem character compared to the likes of me and Marth

According to the Knights of Iris artbook, which launched after the release of FE13 in Japan, I was in fact ranked higher than you on the SpotPass character popularity poll, coming in second to only Marth.

Despite that, to gamers you simply aren't as recognizable. People know me cause Melee sold a ton. While FE7 did well, it didn't do groundbreaking numbers like Melee.

Did you forget that I was an Assist Trophy in Brawl? That got me some recognition, unlike you who only appeared as a sticker.

I don't find that an incredibly valid point, but alas, I'll turn this over to Yarne and Owain for now.

You're not even a main character in your own game! We are much more important than you!

Pft...

Isn't this supposed to be serious?

Yes, yes it is.

Do I have to argue against this?

No.

Anyway, I will however, note that Lyn has a lot of competition for the spot. As such, she will only receive a 15% chance, but a 100% want.


And, it appears our second target for today is the Plasma Wraith. Doubles 0s.

WHAT? He's just as likely as I am! 100%!

I don't even need to be asked.

CURSE YOU!

 

[Erimir]

On a different note, Nintendo Direct coming tomorrow afternoon.

I'm pretty sure we're going to see a Donkey Kong character... the question is, will it be Diddy or will it be a newcomer?

I think it's probably just going to be Diddy. If there were no Direct, I'd assume that we were getting Diddy or nobody tomorrow, for sure. If nobody, then we'd get Diddy or something on the NA release date. But since we ARE getting a Direct, tomorrow, that means they will probably say something about the DK series in Smash. And they might show a video about Smash Bros. And if they might show a video, it might be about Dixie... or K Rool, if he's somehow secretly in Tropical Freeze. The very fact that they're choosing to do a Direct on DKCTF's launch date increases the chances of a DK newcomer, IMO.

But I'm thinking... it wouldn't make sense to use the Direct to reveal a character who's not even in Tropical Freeze (K Rool). So I'm thinking it's probably Diddy, and possibly Dixie, but quite unlikely to be K Rool. And if it somehow is K Rool, then that means he's in DKCTF.

But since Diddy hasn't been revealed yet, and they revealed all the Mario characters before Rosalina, I'm guessing it'll just be Diddy. I still hope that they're using the Direct to show a video though, even if it's not for a newcomer.

Cuz seriously, it seems like a waste for them to have these Nintendo Directs and not use them to release more Smash Bros footage. It doesn't have to be a fancy thing like Mega Man or Rosalina got, just show some regular gameplay featuring some characters we haven't seen in action yet. They don't even have to reveal anything all that new, just show some of things we know about, you know, but moving.

(I'm also hoping for some Mario Kart 8 footage.)

 

[Starcutter]

Chance: 0%

hold on,​

click here​

Do you have a good reason for this claim? Because all this
basless conjecture really doesn't seem necessary.
Plasm Wraith should have at least SOME chance since
he's the leading villian in the most recent Pikmin game.
​

This argument does hold water. What do you think, Mr. Edgeworth?​

Chance - 0% will most certainly not be in, being a boss

Chance: 0% - Best case scenario, it will be a boss. No way it will be playable.

*music stops*
​

​

....!​

Edgeworth... do you remember this piece of evidence?

(play this)

According to this piece of evidence, it completely shows the fact that...
Bosses can be playable.
​

This proves, without a doubt, that plasm wraith can be playable, and doesn't deserve a 0%!

​

​

​

Plasm Wraith's chances: 0% - We're not likely to get another Pikmin character. Even if we did, it would be one of the other main characters.

Likelihood: 0% He's a boss in one Pikmin game. He's behind Louie and the Pikmin 3 protagonists.

That doesn't seem too unreasonable..

​

All the other pikmin captains share moves with olimar. many of the possibilitys have been covered already with olimar.
that really leaves only one viable solution, the PLASM WRAITH!

as for him being a one-shot villian, he can be clearly seen alive and well on the pikmin's planet after the crew leaves the planet.
This can be assumed to mean that plasm wraith may make another appearance,

SUCH AS SMASH BROS!

​

​

​

I am ready to handle my verdict.

the Plasm Wraith gets a 45% in chance, and a 60% in want.

Court is adjourned.

(for the record I did this because I started playing ace attorney again, not cause OrcarinaOfDoom or Groose. didn't even know Ocarina's was related to phoenix wright until after this post)
​

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Oh my God, the Plasm Wraith got an Ace Attorney post.....

 

[Starcutter]

Oh my God, the Plasm Wraith got an Ace Attorney post.....

was kinda upset with all the zeros....


also I guess I should rate the others...

Lyn 15%
Want: 40%

Black mage: 3.6%
Pokemon Trainer: 87.5%

Stork x5

 

[Deleted member]

I am expecting a Donkey Kong character tomorrow. With how things look, it turns out that we could get Dixie Kong, King K. Rool, or Shulk. Dixie Kong and King K. Rool for the Donkey Kong stuff this month and Shulk is a possibility since Soraya Saga, the wife of the create of X, has retweeted the fact that there will be a Nintendo Direct.

I am predicting that there is a 90% chance that we will get Diddy Kong tomorrow. I would be surprised if we didn't.

I am expecting one of these scenarios to happen in regards to Diddy Kong and a newcomer:
1. Diddy Kong and a newcomer: 20%. Definite possibility that we could get Diddy Kong and another character. However, there are three sub-scenarios that could happen.

• Diddy Kong and Dixie Kong: 10%. Dixie Kong will get the edge since she is in Tropical Freeze. It would make sense to reveal Diddy Kong first earlier in the day and then Dixie Kong in the Direct.
• Diddy Kong and King K. Rool: 3%. If King K. Rool is not in Tropical Freeze, then I see a low chance of him getting revealed with Diddy Kong. It wouldn't make too much sense.
• Diddy Kong and Shulk: 7%. I'm giving the edge to Shulk since there could be X news tomorrow. If they wanted to show a reveal trailer for Shulk and then X footage like they did with Rosalina and Mario Kart 8, this could happen. We haven't seen X in a long time.

2. Diddy Kong and no newcomer: 70%. This could sadly happen. I would find it to be a kick in the face if he didn't get revealed in a Pic of the Day, but then gets revealed in the Nintendo Direct. It would be a major waste in my eyes. It made sense to reveal Luigi solo in a Nintendo Direct.

That 10% leftover is the likelihood of not getting Diddy Kong. That also leaves 5% both ways on two things:
1. Newcomer only: 5%. That 5% is for a random character no one saw coming, a likely revealed character like Little Mac or Palutena, and specifically Shulk. Shulk has the edge for possible X footage. If Diddy Kong isn't revealed tomorrow, then we definitely aren't going to get a DK newcomer.
2. No one: 5%. Ugh… please don't disappoint me, Sakurai.

Overall… I think it's possible that we will get Diddy Kong. If we get him, then we could get Dixie Kong or Shulk in the Nintendo Direct and King K. Rool would be a surprise if he got revealed if he isn't in Tropical Freeze. If Diddy Kong isn't revealed tomorrow, we could get Shulk.

 

[McDuckletts]

hold on,​

click here​

Do you have a good reason for this claim? Because all this
basless conjecture really doesn't seem necessary.
Plasm Wraith should have at least SOME chance since
he's the leading villian in the most recent Pikmin game.
​

This argument does hold water. What do you think, Mr. Edgeworth?​

​

*music stops*
​

​

....!​

Edgeworth... do you remember this piece of evidence?

(play this)

According to this piece of evidence, it completely shows the fact that...
Bosses can be playable.
​

This proves, without a doubt, that plasm wraith can be playable, and doesn't deserve a 0%!

​

​

​

​

That doesn't seem too unreasonable..

​

All the other pikmin captains share moves with olimar. many of the possibilitys have been covered already with olimar.
that really leaves only one viable solution, the PLASM WRAITH!

as for him being a one-shot villian, he can be clearly seen alive and well on the pikmin's planet after the crew leaves the planet.
This can be assumed to mean that plasm wraith may make another appearance,

SUCH AS SMASH BROS!

​

​

​

I am ready to handle my verdict.

the Plasm Wraith gets a 55% in chance, and a 60% in want.

Court is adjourned.

(for the record I did this because I started playing ace attorney again, not cause OrcarinaOfDoom. didn't even know it was related to phoenix wright until after this post)
​

Well, this was a pleasant, albeit unexpected, surprise.

 

[TheLastJinjo]

PlasmWraith? I'd say about 1%

 

[Starcutter]

What about Genesect's chances?

um...

what about them?

 

[Arcanir]

Abstaining from Plasm Wraith

Lyn
Chances: 10% She is the first lord many western fans were introduced to via the series but in terms of popularity and relative importance, she loses out to Roy, Chrom and Lucina.
Want: 60% I like her, but I can't say I feel too strongly about wanting her in.

 

[TheLastJinjo]

Chances: 10% She is the first lord many western fans were introduced to via the series but in terms of popularity and relative importance, she loses out to Roy, Chrom and Lucina.

Hold on. Chrom and Lucina are not more popular than Lyn.

 

[Knight Dude]

Plasma Wraith

Chance: 1%: It's a Nintendo character, so it has to at least have this much. Well, I guess it could have 0.00001, but whatever. Seems more plausible as a boss.

Want: 5%: Given what this thing can do, I think it's safe to say that it would be interesting to fight as or against. So it has that going for it. But not much else. Again,seems better off as a boss.

Lyndis

Chance: 15%: I think that she could very well return as an assist, any of them could, so that would hold her back a little bit. Another being she might be in direct competition with the other Fire Emblem characters, such as Chrom, Roy and Lucina. Not to mention, we don't even know if we're getting more than two Fire Emblem characters, and Ike seems rather likely to re-claim his spot with Marth. Having said that, she's still fairly popular, so she has a better chance than 98% of FE's cast.

Want: 55%: She seems kind of interesting. Though I'm not sure if she'll be all that special with three other Fire Emblem characters already in the series at some point. Maybe if she uses some sort of special power to help her standout.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Hold on. Chrom and Lucina are not more popular than Lyn.

Depends on who you ask.

Old FE fans and old smash fans tend to like Lyn more.

New FE fans and new Smash fans tend to like Awakening characters more.

Roy is somewhere in the middle.

 

[Knight Dude]

Hold on. Chrom and Lucina are not more popular than Lyn.

I think that would be the case among more "newer" fans, for lack of a better term. Fire Emblem Awakening did introduce a hell of a lot of people to the series. And if I'm not mistaken, it was the most successful. And having Chrom and Lucina as the front runners of the game, means that are probably well liked among the fan-base.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Plasm Wraith
20% Chance
A great choice for a Pikmin rep... And that's the issue. Pikmin is far smaller than other series that will be repped, and requests for the Wraith are nonexistent. However, pikimin is not just on the Pikmin themselves and the design of Earth in that time period. The fauna, save Pikmin themselves, also play a huge role, and the Plasm Wraith does seem to be the most resonable choice...
33% Want
Could be unique, but in all honesty, I would rather see many other franchises get reps...
Lyn
10% Chance
*Sigh* Poor Lyn. Lyn got her best case scenario in Brawl, as an outdated Lord, she was popular enough to get an assist trophy. However, in SSB4, her competition is fierce. Ike, being seen as questionable in some people's eyes, is a huge threat to her. In terms of the popularity arguement, Roy by far eclipses her. However, Awakening is where she truly gets hurt. Now with three potent foes in Chrom, Robin, and Lucina, Lyn just seems to have it numbered against her.
40% Want
I would Prefer Ike to return, and Robin and Lucina and Roy over Lyn. She beats Chrom and all the stupid random FE characters (Owain, Yarne)...

Black Mage 2.55%
Pokemon Trainer 77.9%

Nominating King K Rool x5