Rayman
Popularity: He's from a decently popular series. But he doesn't seem super wanted by Smash fans.
Relevancy: Rayman does not have much of a Nintendo connection, and unlike Pac-Man he is not among the highest tiers of video game legend. Unlike Snake, I don't think he has any personal connection to Sakurai either.
Design: He'd be alright I suppose. Nothing super interesting as far as how his moves work, but his model would be quite different.
Roster and Competition: If we assume 3rd parties are limited to three or four, he has to compete against Sonic, Snake, Pac-Man and other third-parties with much more of a Nintendo connection. Even if there are five 3rd-parties, he doesn't seem likely to me.
Legal issues/marketing: Rayman belongs to Ubisoft, of course. And Ubisoft and Nintendo have a decent relationship, but I have to imagine that the
Rayman Legends debacle really damaged the already low chances of Rayman being included.
Rayman chances: 0.5%
He's not that legendary, he's not that Nintendo, he's not that desired by fans, and Ubisoft ****ed over Nintendo regarding this specific character very recently. Why would we expect to see him?
Rayman want: 15%
I'd much rather see a lot of other 3rd-parties. He doesn't sink to the level of 3rd-party characters that might as well be mascots for another console though.
Dixie Kong
Well, this is a re-rate, so I don't feel the need to go over it all again. Just need to talk about what has changed...
-Not very much. We don't know anything new about Tropical Freeze, including the most important thing for this discussion: whether King K Rool is in it.
-I still think a third DK rep is practically a lock. But I have come to think that Donkey Kong getting 4 reps is more likely than I did before. I've bumped it up from about a 1:4 chance to a 1:3. Donkey Kong is one of Nintendo's biggest franchises (about as big as Zelda in sales, and their 4th largest overall). The DK series is criminally underrepresented. Donkey Kong would deserve to be in just on the basis of the arcade game for his importance to Nintendo history. Donkey Kong still sells well, with DKCR being a quite high selling game. Tropical Freeze can be expected to sell millions of copies. So there's plenty of life in the series, and K Rool and Dixie are the obvious choices for more reps.
-As I said before, I think K Rool is a lot more likely, since he feels a bit more important to DKC than Dixie, and because he'd be more unique as a fighter.
So
Dixie chances: 45%
This is a significant bump from what I said before (about 36%). This is because most of that bump in the likelihood of DK getting 4 reps would accrue to her, since I think K Rool is much more likely to get in first. But if there are four reps, and K Rool is already in, Dixie Kong is pretty much the only choice.
Dixie want: 70%
Just gonna put the same thing as before.
Ashley prediction: 5%
Wario Ware characters don't seem like they should be seen as super likely, but who knows. It was crazy how much support she got back in the day for Brawl, particularly considering Brawl was Wario's Smash debut.
Nominations:
Mikes Jones x5
- Some people also say she has no moveset potential, it would be too much like Diddy. I have to say, this is hard for me too. However, the Brawl team apparently thought she did. She was apparently supposed to tag team with Diddy, and you wouldn't tag team with someone to get... exactly the same thing. No, just like Zelda and Sheik are unique apart from each other, as well as Charizard, Ivysaur and Squirtle, so would Diddy and Dixie be unique.
Was they supposed to be a tag team like the PKMN Trainer's Pokemon, or were they supposed to work like the Ice Climbers?
I think the latter is more likely, considering that they work like that in the DKC games. Since they would have some team moves, it wouldn't be the case that Diddy and Dixie would have to be fully differentiated in that scenario. It would also mean, at the very least, that her inclusion was based partly on their team moves, not on Dixie's independent moves.
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