Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Xenigma]

Owain - 0%
To the guys who nominated him: what were you thinking? I mean, yeah, he has some popularity. Just look at the official FE:A character poll from Japan. He still loses out to Chrom, though, and it would take a miracle for a minor character to beat out the main lord (or in Awakening's case, lords thanks to Lucina) even if they were more popular. Sorry, Owain, but you'd be lucky to get a trophy, never mind a character slot.
Want - 0% - Let me be clear: I absolutely love Owain. He's my favorite character in Awakening, even beating out Lucina. Doesn't change the fact that his inclusion would mean us not getting a far more worthy FE character, and suffice to say I wouldn't be happy about that. Ugh.

Takamaru - 63.3%
For some reason people are convinced he'll be our token retro character thanks to Nintendo Land. I don't really get the hype, but I have to expect a high rating as a result.

Nominations
Toon Zelda/Tetra x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Owain Chance and Want: 5% I would prefer Chrom way over Owain, just saying nominatiatrolls.

Takamaru Prediction: 65.6% Although a popular choice here, I don't think outside of here many people think he would be the best retro in mind.

Nominations:
Tom Nook x5

 

[BKupa666]

Owain

Likelihood - 2%
Despite having spent a borderline unhealthy amount of time on this board from before Awakening's release to now, I never heard Owain's name mentioned until I began visiting GameFAQs more often over the past two or so months. Considering the caliber of the arguments his supporters there use for him, I'm partially convinced that 'Owain for SSB4' is some masterful collaborative joke, pulled off in a deliciously deadpan manner. Or, if not, it's the product of a vocal minority that has slowly built up an infectious sphere of influence, kind of like how that one bull**** leak about Tharja being in the game's opening cinematic at E3 prompted pockets of users to start adding her to their rosters (more on that when she comes up). Anyways, there are scads of characters who would come before him, from within his series and beyond, despite him allegedly being a decently personable character.

Want - 5%
As with Lucina, I don't want the speculation scene nudged down a slippery slope of legitimizing one unimportant Fire Emblem character after another.

Takamaru Prediction - 56.5%
I think he'll get a few outlying high and low scores, but mainly middle-of-the-road ones pointing him out as a possibility among possibilities.

Nominate:
Ganondorf x5

 

[loganhogan]

WhOwain?

If they're going to start putting non-lords they should at least best the staple or important ones. Owain is entirely optional and can be easily skipped. Popularity only gets a character so far. Amongst his family members he's easily the most dispensable.

 

[Alban712]

Owain: Likelihood 0,1%
Want: 5% Better than Mii

Takamaru: 57,4%

Nominations:
Waluigi x 5

 

[Keto]

Owain: 5%
Want: 1%

Takamaru: 51%

Sandbag x5

 

[Robert of Normandy]

To the guys who nominated him: what were you thinking?

Blame Gamefaqs Stupidity/trolling. Whose idea was it to include them in this whole thing?

Anyways, onto Owain:
Likelihood: 0%
A non-Lord supporting character with only one appearance to his name, not to mention the fact that it's possible to never encounter the guy. Yeah, don't think I really need to explain why he's not happening. I will say, that on the off chance his support is legitimate, that says more about how bland and uninteresting people find Chrom than anything else.

Want: 0%
Would rather have Robin or Anna if we were to get an Awakening or non-Lord character.

Prediction for Takamaru: 60%

Nominations: Lloyd x5

 

[Fastblade5035]

Blame Gamefaqs Stupidity/trolling. Whose idea was it to include them in this whole thing?

Blame me
I actually saw Owain had Two nominations, and since I like Owain, I decided to give him +5 every time. I guess Gamefaqs caught on and helped me. Heh.

 

[FalKoopa]

Took a stroll by the GameFAQs thread. A few users have rated him in the 10%-20% range. Though they're still the minority.

Also, 80% of Owain's nominations came from GameFAQs. FastBlade5035 is the only user here who nominated him, apparently.

Also GameFAQs thinks we have a preference of older lords (specifically Roy, Ike and Lyn).

 

[Robert of Normandy]

Blame me
I actually saw Owain had Two nominations, and since I like Owain, I decided to give him +5 every time. I guess Gamefaqs caught on and helped me. Heh.

You will pay for this....

Also GameFAQs thinks we have a preference of older lords (specifically Roy, Ike and Lyn).

Well we kinda do. At least in comparison to Lords like Chrom and such.

 

[Shorts]

Owain - 1%

If it aint Chrom, Lucina, My Unit, or Anna, it's THARJA.

Want - 0%

Takamaru 56%

Tharja x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Owain: 1%
This is literally the first time I've seen his name come up before. That says it all.

Want: 5% He seems like a cool character...that is totally undeserving of being in smash.

Takamaru prediction: 67.5%

3x Toad
2x Vaati

 

[MexM]

If it aint Chrom, Lucina, My Unit, or Anna, it's HENRY.

Fixed.

 

[Shorts]

Fixed.

 

[MexM]

 

[Chauzu]

Owain

Who? I'm skipping this one, another FE rep I haven't heard of.

Takamaru

Prediction: 61%

Nominations

Scrooge McDuck x2
Phoenix Wright
Marina (Mischief Makers)
Geno

 

[cephalopod17]

Owain Likelihood: 0.001%

Owain Want: 0%
There are more deserving FE characters from Awaking alone. (Cough Chrom,Lucina,Robin)

Takamaru Prediction: 68%

Nomination: Robin (Fire Emblem Awaking) X1

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Owain Likelihood: 0%

Said it yesterday but I'll say it again. There's at least 10 awakening characters more important than him (probably even more than that) so I don't see him having a hope in the world.

Want - 5%

He looks pretty cool but I haven't reached him in my playthrough of awakening yet so I don't care much for him.

Takamaru prediction - 46%

Nominations:
Chibi Robo X3
Robin (Awakening) X2

 

[Sid-cada]

Owain

Chance - 0% - A character that can be completely skipped over, has no importance, and is mostly unheard of. Yeah, he's doomed.

Want - 10% - Just because I find self-parody funny saves him from getting lower. I want important folks, thanks.


Takamaru Prediction - 60% - Regardless of what happens, I expect Retro characters to be no higher than him. FAQS folks will have probably never heard of him, and thus down vote him, but Smashbords will be more cautiously optimistic.

Nominations
Lucario X5

 

[Groose]

Blame Gamefaqs Stupidity/trolling. Whose idea was it to include them in this whole thing?

Gamefaqs is a very important part of this game. They give us a different perspective of things; this is most evident in Roy's rating. They are by no means casual, but they do give a more casual viewpoint than here. After all, here in the heart of competitive play we can lose sight of the big picture.

 

[Ephecus]

Owain
Chance: 0%
Owain is not even important in the only game he will ever be in, so why should he get in over the likes of Lucina, Chrom, Robin, Roy, Ike, Anna or even Tharja?

Want: 5 %
Another boring swordwielder. He is kinda funny, however if any of the FE 13 younger generation should get in, I would prefer Noire.

Takamaru: 50 %
I don't get why so many think that he will get in. Did he ever have a major role apart from his own game back in the Famicom-era and Nintendoland?

Nominations:
Jigglypuff x5

 

[SpaceJell0]

Owain: I have no idea who he is and I don't care. If he's another generic FE swordsman then Hellz naw. Prediction and Want: 0%

Takamaru: 70% his appearance in NintendoLand makes him familiar with kids, a retro revival, and he is a Japan-only classic. (And we all know Sakurai's bias towards Japan-only characters -_-)

Nomz: x5 Starfy

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Blame Gamefaqs Stupidity/trolling. Whose idea was it to include them in this whole thing?

Like what Groose said, I appreciate a different perspective. It's good to know what other sites think or feel in regards to characters. They have every right to participate.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Chrom

Likely hood 0%
is he even know

Want 0%
is is what I think about this guy

Nominations
ROB
Sonic
Snake

Oh if you want me to vote on other characters please let me know

 

[Opossum]

I just realized. Your name is Smash Operating Buddy, or SOB. Not exactly the most flattering handle.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I just realized. Your name is Smash Operating Buddy, or SOB. Not exactly the most flattering handle.

yea it was all I can think of since im a ssbb ROB fan its too late now once your registered your stuck with the name

 

[Robert of Normandy]

Gamefaqs is a very important part of this game. They give us a different perspective of things; this is most evident in Roy's rating. They are by no means casual, but they do give a more casual viewpoint than here. After all, here in the heart of competitive play we can lose sight of the big picture.

Like what Groose said, I appreciate a different perspective. It's good to know what other sites think or feel in regards to characters. They have every right to participate.

Well...I suppose that makes sense....

Won't stop me ******** about it when the next no-name troll character makes it to the top of the nominations list.....

 

[Groose]

Well...I suppose that makes sense....

Won't stop me *****ing about it when the next no-name troll character makes it to the top of the nominations list.....

The initial nominations campaign for Owain actually started here, with Fastblade5035. When Gamefaqs caught on, it exploded and he rapidly climbed the nominations ladder, often getting 20+ votes per day.

 

[•Col•]

Owain: 0.5%
Want: 1%

Gamefaqs is a very important part of this game. They give us a different perspective of things; this is most evident in Roy's rating. They are by no means casual, but they do give a more casual viewpoint than here. After all, here in the heart of competitive play we can lose sight of the big picture.

The problem is that they tend to act a little less..... Mature. Most likely because there's a larger younger audience..

But because of this, it only takes a handful of people to radically skew poll results of a character they might want/not want. I mean, Owain is getting a few 15-25%'s over there, but that's all it takes for him to jump from most people's 1-5% to tack on a few more points.

I agree that having a different perspective helps, I just don't think it should be Gamefaq. At the same time, I'm not sure where else you could get a decent amount of people to participate in this kind of thing.

I dunno. People take the results of this thing 'seriously' as if they're reliable to go on, when in fact they're completely unreliable.

All if takes is 1 person with a few alt accounts on Gamefaq and then post some ridiculously high/low %'s for their chances to change the results fairly easily.

 

[Groose]

The problem is that they tend to act a little less..... Mature. Most likely because there's a larger younger audience..

I agree that having a different perspective helps, I just don't think it should be Gamefaq. At the same time, I'm not sure where else you could get a decent amount of people to participate in this kind of thing.

All if takes is 1 person with a few alt accounts on Gamefaq and then post some ridiculously high/low %'s for their chances to change the results fairly easily.

Fair enough. Personally, I do find monitoring both Gamefaqs and Smashboards more of a headache, but I'm determined to keep the game going the way SSBF intended it to.

 

[Groose]

Okay. I know it's not quite been the full 24 hours, but I'm going to have to end the day here; I honestly think it's time we move onto a character who that will hit double digits in chance percentage.

 

[Opossum]

Poor Owain...

 

[Starbound]

Owain clearly needed aid.

 

[MargnetMan23]

Okay. I know it's not quite been the full 24 hours, but I'm going to have to end the day here; I honestly think it's time we move onto a character who that will hit double digits in chance percentage.

Now to see how close my prediction was XD

 

[Groose]

Well, that was a bit underwhelming. Owain is by far our most unlikely pick of the game, clocking in at only a 2.18% overall chance (.72% Smashboards, 4.52% Gamefaqs). Not only does it look like his hungry sword hand will be left on the cutting room floor, it also seems that many of you really won’t care; Owain only scored a tepid 27.88% overall want (14.51% Smashboards, 49.27% Gamefaqs). It wasn’t that you don’t like him---the issue seems to be that you either don’t know of him or consider him too minor of a character to appear in a matchup of All-Stars. So far, he is our second least wanted character, coming only in front of Mii.

You may not have given Owain or Mii before him warm welcomes, but I expect our character today will elicit a better reaction: his name is Takamaru and he is a SAMURAI. Seriously, who doesn’t love samurais? I suppose we’ll find out today; please say how likely Takamaru is and how much you want him.

Also, please predict how people will rate Lucario in tomorrow's game. He narrowly topped the nominations list; I expect it will be quite a close contest tomorrow. Predicting can earn you extra nominations.

The winners of the extra nominations today are BluePikmin11 and Bellagio. Have fun with an extra five.

Gamefaqs link.

I'll update the OP (music, veterans/newcomers) in an hour or two.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Takamaru: 58%. A somewhat popular retro character who has made a recent appearances in games like SW3 and Nintendo Land
Want: 75% Samurai's are cool.

Nominate:
Yarne (Fire Emblem) x 5

Lucario:55%

 

[TumblrFamous]

Alrighty!!!

Takamaru Prediction: 75%
It's a bit of a stretch, but I think he has a great shot. We haven't had a Samurai before I believe, and as a retro character with a revival with Nintendo Land, he has a great shot. Plus, he's popular with the East and West.

Want: 70%
I wouldn't be sad if he wasn't in, but I would love to try playing him. He'd be a pretty unique sword-fighter.

Lucario: 47%
I don't think he's leaving personally, being a REALLY UNIQUE FIGHTER WITH A COOL GIMMICK (what was the #1 priority for characters again?), but people think he will get replaced since he "replaced" Mewtwo (drawing patterns from things that has only happened once = stupid).

Nominations:
Toon Zelda/ Tetra x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Owain's SmashBoards score is something to marvel at.

So, Takamaru.
Likelihood: 60%
He's the most wanted retro character in the west. Sakurai also mentioned that he would add Takamaru if he features in a new game. Whether Captain Rainbow and Nintendo Land count or not is up for debate though. He's not that popular in Japan though, so it might hold him back.

Want: 80%
He's cool. He sets himself apart from other sword-users with his Katana, use of shuriken and fireballs. His franchise might also get a new lease of life much like Kid Icarus. (Also, when Smash 4 gets hacks, I can put Lyn in his place. )

Lucario:
Predicting 72%
He's irrelevant for GameFAQs.

Nominations: Lyn x 5

 

[TheMasonOrder]

Takamaru's Likelihood: 30% - Know nothing about him other that he's retro and kinda popular. He had a mini-game in NintendoLand, however I just can't see it happening.

Want: 5% - No thanks. I prefer Little Mac please. He would be cool though.

Lucario: 45%

Nominations:
Eirika 3x
Tharja 2x

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Takamaru
Likelihood: 70% Being in Nintendoland has kind of re-introduced him to the West, plus he's a pretty retro character. He has a decent shot this time around.
Want: 25% He just doesn't appeal to me that much, probably because I don't know too much about him. I wouldn't be upset if he made it in though, but he isn't at the top of my list either.

Lucario: 50% I'm really not too sure about this one. I like Lucario, I play as him every now and then. But I don't know hardly anything after 1st generation Pokemon

Nominations:
Masked Man x5