Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[BlitznBurst]

Falco chances: 95%. Star Fox is at least guaranteed to have two reps, if not all three from Brawl, and Falco is also a Melee veteran
Want: 50%. I'd much rather have Wolf over Falco tbh

Bomberman prediction: 15%.

Ganon X5

 

[Primid]

FALCO

Likelihood: 97% He's been there since Melee and is the go-to second Star Fox rep. Any third rep will be added after Falco.

Want: 98% He's my least favorite of the trio, but he definitely should be in the game. Falco is a cool character and he'd be missed if he left.

Bomberman prediction: 17%
Nominations:
Duck Hunt Dog x3
Rayman x2

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Likely hood 95%
He was here since melee and the second star fox rep hes not going anywhere

Want 100%
Just please make his moveset even less than foxes moveset and make his final smash the airwing instead of the landmaster

 

[3Bismyname]

Why his Final Smash wasn't some kind of airwing assault in the first place is anyone's guess frankly.

id say it was mostly laziness

 

[Groose]

id say it was mostly laziness

It's fast become a pet peeve of mine how people blame all of Brawl's flaws on "laziness." The game is many things, but lazy isn't among them. You may find it to be a failure... but then it was an ambitious failure.​

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The decision to Falco a Landmaster was probably made to introduce more content into the game. If the team had spent days working on designing, animating, and balancing an Arwing... well, let's just say that they may not have had time for another last minute feature, like Wolf.​

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Personally, I would have preferred it if Falco were given an even more unique moveset and Wolf were to have been left on the cutting room floor. But... that's just me an my openness to cuts.​

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In FE Terms: Always do this attack in Fire Emblem. If you miss, it means the game and RNG hates you. Which has happened to me before.

I love this type of explanation.

Not to mention the fact that he's one of the most likable characters of the Star Fox series.

No one beats 'ol Peppy, but Falco was always awesome. I'll give you that.

I actually got one right? It took me the full month(I joined on Toad's first day), but I got one right. I'm getting all teary eyed.!

Gratz!

 

[Groose]

double post

 

[3Bismyname]

It's fast become a pet peeve of mine how people blame all of Brawl's flaws on "laziness." The game is many things, but lazy isn't among them. You may find it to be a failure... but then it was an ambitious failure.

The decision to Falco a Landmaster was probably made to introduce more content into the game. If the team had spent days working on designing, animating, and balancing an Arwing... well, let's just say that they may not have had time for another last minute feature, like Wolf.

Personally, I would have preferred it if Falco were given an even more unique moveset and Wolf were to have been left on the cutting room floor. But... that's just me an my openness to cuts.


!

im not saying its a bad thing. they needed to cut corners in some areas so as to make their release goals. so something like certain characters final smashes werent worked on as individuals but in bulk. so while it is justifiable laziness, its still laziness. thats really the only thing in brawl i find lazy. everything else has a reason for its inclusion or exclusion.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Falco
Likelihood: 90% - I think it's highly unlikely for him to leave at this point
Want: 96% - Falco has always been my favorite of the Star Fox reps, but I do think Wolf better represents the series as a second rep. I honestly hope they just keep the three Star Fox characters we already have.

Bomberman: 14%

Nominations:
Snake x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Falco

Chance - 99.5% - While Falco could be cut, I suppose, I don't see it as likely. Anyone who made it from Melee to Brawl I consider relatively safe. I really doubt he will be intentionally cut, and by the time we get around to him, the roster would be badly slaughtered.

Want - 100% - Given how many characters are being revamped in 4, I'm fairly certain Falco is going to be more unique than before, and before he was only a semi-clone in Brawl. At that rate, he should be an almost entirely different character, so I don't see why he should be cut.

Bomberman Prediction - 7% - He's going to do worse than Layton, that's for sure.

Nominations
Anna X3
Hades X2

 

[SmasherP82]

Paper Mario: 50%
I like him but I think we have enough Mario characters
Want: 12%
Meh make him a trophy or whatevs
Lucina: 0%
I would rather prefer Chrom Roy and Ike to take one of the spots I don't think we need another "Marth"

 

[SmasherP82]

forgot to say
Nominations:
Mii x4
Roy x4

 

[Opossum]

Paper Mario: 50%
I like him but I think we have enough Mario characters
Want: 12%
Meh make him a trophy or whatevs
Lucina: 0%
I would rather prefer Chrom Roy and Ike to take one of the spots I don't think we need another "Marth"

We're not rating Paper Mario or Lucina today...

 

[SmasherP82]

We're not rating Paper Mario or Lucina today...

sorry was on the 1st thread didn't know my message ended up here

 

[Opossum]

sorry was on the 1st thread didn't know my message ended up here

Not too much of a problem. Just remember that the character that's being rated is always in the thread title.

 

[SmasherP82]

Not too much of a problem. Just remember that the character that's being rated is always in the thread title.

k I'll remember that.

 

[Glaciacott]

Late this time, but thankfully still on time!

Falco
Chances 99%
Let's not kid ourselves, he's as likely as Fox. Even then, again, nothing is certain so not giving him 100%

Want 40%
I main wolf, I love wolves, and the Star Wolf theme is one of the most fantastic themes in gaming. So yea, I really really would much rather they leave Wolf and cut Falco. Or better yet, they cut neither.
But really, what brings the percentage down a lot is that I really really hate Falco. To me, he's that character that tries SO hard to be cool and badass but everytime, at least to me, the act just falls flat. It's like Sonic, but at least Sonic has being a product of the 90s as an excuse. And then I also unfairly hate him from all the people I know who just leapt at Falco the moment they started falling behind with their original mains.
I didn't drop the want lower because even in my blind, biased hate I recognize he's kind of a staple of Smash at this point, and not having him come back would just be strange.

Bomberman
8.78%
I think there's a lot of love for Bomberman, and a lot of people will reflect that in the want, but we all know that of all third parties he's extremely unlikely. Well, I hope we can all acknowledge that.

Nominations
x5 Ashley

 

[SuperBrawler]

Falco
Chance 97%
Really now, there is no good reason I can think of to NOT add him in.
Want 100%
Hoping he will be revamped though.

Bomberman 10%
Bomberman is liked a lot but I think we might get someone like PAC Man.

Noms
Meowth x5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Falco

Likelihood: 99% - He's not going anywhere. He's the main character sidekick and has been around since Melee

Want: 80% - Really don't want any cuts

Bomerman Prediction: 14,4%

Nominations:
Primid x5

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Falco
Chance 95%: Him being cut would not be do to time constraints, simply because imo he is the most cloney character in the game, meaning it would take less time to add him in.
Want 20%: He is just really feels like a complete clone to me, the only reason he is not lower is because Sakurai will make him slightly less of a clone. And I think star fox is kinda over repped, having more reps than donkey kong and metroid, and in melee having more reps than kirby.

Bomberman: 10%
He meets ALL of the qualifications of being in the game, but all of it is overshadowed because konami bought hudson

Nominations:
Wow, the whole time I nominated bomberman, and finally his time has come, so why not nominate another third party with almost the same chance as him
Rayman x5

 

[SuperBrawler]

Falco
Chance 97%
Really now, there is no good reason I can think of to NOT add him in.
Want 100%
Hoping he will be revamped though.

Bomberman 10%
Bomberman is liked a lot but I think we might get someone like PAC Man.

Noms
Meowth x5

We can do it Meowth!

... Maybe after twenty-five days of this game.

 

[ToothiestAura]

Falco:

Chances: 95-98%
Falco has been in two SSB games and therefore is fairly unlikely to be cut. If a Star Fox character were going to be cut, I would cut Falco (because Wolf is more of an original character). Though, Sakurai doesn't think the same way I do, of course. I feel he's unlikely to be cut given his 2-time Vet status, but I won't rule it out as a possibility.

Want: 30-42%
While Falco is a fine character to play - he's a straight clone. Or close enough. Unexciting to me. His FS still lives in infamy. Provided they change him up a bit I would be far more into his return.

Bomberman Prediction: 8.8%

 

[BKupa666]

Falco

Likelihood - 100%
I haven't even read any of the rationales for him yet, but I can tell there will be ones along the lines of"Its either him or wolf getting cut and wolfs a villain." Believe it, if either of the two are getting cut, it'll undoubtedly be Wolf, who barely made it into Brawl. Though Falco was a last minute addition to Melee, there is absolutely no indication that he was anywhere near the chopping block in Brawl; in contrast to characters like Jigglypuff, Toon Link, Roy, Mewtwo, and others, he was nestled in among the franchise mainstays in the game's data. Thus, it's a very solid bet that he'll be back for a third bout, probably diversified a bit more in the process.

Want - 70%
I enjoy his Brawl moveset beyond the laser spam, but I wouldn't be heartbroken to see him gone.

Bomberman Prediction - 6.5%
He's that legendary class-of-his-own third party to which Sakurai was referring, right? Right?!

Nominate
K. Rool x5

 

[XenothiumX]

Why his Final Smash wasn't some kind of airwing assault in the first place is anyone's guess frankly.

I guess they just wanted to keep the tank in the Starfox family

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Anyway im sure falco will get a different final smash this time i think wolf is the on getting kicked since he was the final character added to smash bros brawl

Oh one more thing

Nominations

Lucario x5

I want to see his votes now ever since hes confirmed with a mega evo like mewtwo

 

[Fastblade5035]

Anyway im sure falco will get a different final smash this time i think wolf is the on getting kicked since he was the final character added to smash bros brawl

Oh one more thing

Nominations

Lucario x5

I want to see his votes now ever since hes confirmed with a mega evo like mewtwo

Late character =/= cut next game.
Besides, wasn't Sonic the last character?
I may be wrong, so a simple 'no' will do just fine.

 

[SchAlternate]

I'm think Ganondorf was the last character to be introduced in Melee, and yet he made it in Brawl.

 

[3Bismyname]

Late character =/= cut next game.
Besides, wasn't Sonic the last character?
I may be wrong, so a simple 'no' will do just fine.

yeah he's one of them. Sonic, Wolf, Jiggs, and Toon Link were the last 4 (not necessarily in that order).

 

[NickerBocker]

Falco

Chance: 98%
He's all but guaranteed at this point. Melee veteran, Fox's sidekick, and a killer attitude
Want: 50%
Doesn't matter to me, provided he's distinguished from Fox a bit more.

Bomberman: 4.3%
The way I see it is Snake would most likely have to be taken out. Sakurai said there are no cuts at this point, whether or not it applies to 3rd parties is another question. Anyways, its not likely unless Sakurai thinks Konami can have 2 reps (which they should, Konami is awesome)

Noms:
Rayman x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I've been busy today and need sleep, so can't put as much into my reasoning as usual... But here goes.

Falco: 99.9%
If a space animals needs cutting I think Falco's more likely, but a space animal's not getting cut.

Want: 70%
No cuts, and he has a real part in the competitive game. Can't say I use any space animal too often, but I like them being in the game to play against. as I've hinted, I think Falco brings the least of the three, but still don't want him going away.


Bomberman: 8%
I've done my research since Simon Belmont and still basically feel the same. Think others will think him fairly unlikely too.


Kamek*5
(Slurprised? Well, slime goo-ing to be busy goomorrow, so won't be able to watch the predictions ploperly. Think gooself lucky FalGoopa!)

*puns are hard when you're tired*

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Falco Lombardi

Chance: 90% - He's very likely to return. I see no reason for him to leave.

Want: 95% - He was awesome in Brawl, and just like with every other veteran I don't want him cut.

Bomberman Prediction: 9% - In terms of popular third parties, he was third in line after Sonic and Megaman in the Brawl days but he has since fallen.

Nominations:
Kamek x5

 

[Groose]

Falco's Chances: 90%
I see Wolf cut before Falco. Yes, Falco is far more of a clone than Wolf. But he has seniority and I believe he'll have priority, too. But... you never know.

Falco Want: 60%
I expect and hope that one of the Star Fox cast is cut to bring in fresher blood. Although I prefer Falco's personality, I prefer Wolf's moveset. It's a toss-up for me.

Bomberman Prediction: 6.54%
People shot down Simon for being a Konami character who isn't named Snake. And Bomberman... is also a Konami character and his current popularity isn't even as large as Simon's.

Duck Hunt Dog x5.
Actually, he's been making it onto my recent rosters. I think he'll be interesting to rate.

Oh, and sorry, guys. This day will run a bit long. I'm not sure when I'll next have access to a computer.

Question here: Is it alright to ask for concepts? As in, could I nominate "Three FE reps x5" or "Rhythm Heaven rep x5"?
I understand why I couldn't; it'd clutter the nominations and everyone would end up voting for different things, but if we end up at a point where pretty much everyone worthwhile has been voted on, it could be a possibility.

Eh, it's a pretty good idea. When we start to run out of viable characters, I'll make a poll to decide whether or not to implement it.

 

[Starcutter]

Falco: 89% chance & want

Bomberman 13%

Kamek x5

 

[Knight Dude]

Falco's chances: 90%: I really don't see Falco getting the axe before Wolf. Given that he does have seniority going for him. That, and he seems to be more popular. Though Wolf has the more unique fighting style between the two. The only reason I didn't put 100% on Falco's chances is that it's possible(but honestly not very probable)that all clone/semi-clones aside from Luigi could get axed.

Want: 55%: I'm not that interested in Falco, given that I like the playstyles of Wolf and especially Fox a lot more. But I'd still like to see him make a return. It'd be cool to see what other ways he can stand out more from his counterparts.

Bomberman prediction: 15%: Chances are that Snake could make it back into Smash 4. But if he doesn't then one of the Belmont's from Castlevainia will likely take his place as the Konami character. But even that in itself isn't probable. So Bomberman has a lot standing in his way. The only thing that gives Bomberman much of a chance is the character's rather close ties to Nintendo. Having already crossed over with Wario once could help with that though. But the Castlevainia characters also have close ties to Nintendo.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Eh, it's a pretty good idea. When we start to run out of viable characters, I'll make a poll to decide whether or not to implement it.

Hehehe... look at you guys actually thinking we'll run out of worthwhile characters anytime soon. Not that we'll make it all the way until the game's release and still have meaningful characters, but there's still 60+ I can name off the top of my head who stand a better chance than Owain or Sandbag.

Anyway, here's another suggestion. If a character we've already rated has something big happen that might radically change his or her chances one way or another, how about giving that character say, 50, honorary revote nominations or something?

Examples of the infinite number of things that might happen in a Nintendo Direct or new trailer or interview that change our perceptions of a character's likelihood:

-The fourth playable character in DKCR: Tropical Freeze is King K. Rool. or maybe the opposite happens, no Kremling Krew whatsoever
-A new Punch-Out!! is announced, and Little Mac is not the protagonist. Geez, maybe he isn't as likely now.
-A new Mysterious Ninja Castle is announced. 50 renominations for Takamaru!
-The new The Legend of Zelda for Wii U has Ghirahim or Vaati or Skull Kid or Tingle.

and so on, and so forth.

 

[Groose]

Hehehe... look at you guys actually thinking we'll run out of worthwhile characters anytime soon. Not that we'll make it all the way until the game's release and still have meaningful characters, but there's still 60+ I can name off the top of my head who stand a better chance than Owain or Sandbag.

Anyway, here's another suggestion. If a character we've already rated has something big happen that might radically change his or her chances one way or another, how about giving that character say, 50, honorary revote nominations or something?

Examples of the infinite number of things that might happen in a Nintendo Direct or new trailer or interview that change our perceptions of a character's likelihood:

-The fourth playable character in DKCR: Tropical Freeze is King K. Rool. or maybe the opposite happens, no Kremling Krew whatsoever
-A new Punch-Out!! is announced, and Little Mac is not the protagonist. Geez, maybe he isn't as likely now.
-A new Mysterious Ninja Castle is announced. 50 renominations for Takamaru!
-The new The Legend of Zelda for Wii U has Ghirahim or Vaati or Skull Kid or Tingle.

and so on, and so forth.

Doesn't sound too bad. I actually thought about doing this for Ridley after the Pyrrosphere, but I decided against it because I didn't want to... derail the thread and bring the raging here.

On Day 60, I have a little special project planned. Alongside it I'll include a poll for rule changes.

Anyway... I tried to end the day last night at around 10PM EST... and the servers crashed and were down for hours. So, I'm going to say

DAY OVER ​

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GROOSE IS BACK​

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[Fastblade5035]

Huzzah. Hopefully I can squeeze in a rating before school.

 

[Groose]

Huzzah. Hopefully I can squeeze in a rating before school.

I'll try and hurry for you.

 

[Fastblade5035]

I'll try and hurry for you.

Thanks, but I'm already heading out
I'll be sure to rate as soon as I get back.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Doesn't sound too bad. I actually thought about doing this for Ridley after the Pyrrosphere, but I decided against it because I didn't want to... derail the thread and bring the raging here.

On Day 60, I have a little special project planned. Alongside it I'll include a poll for rule changes.

Anyway... I tried to end the day last night at around 10PM EST... and the servers crashed and were down for hours. So, I'm going to say

DAY OVER ​

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GROOSE IS BACK​

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Funny you should mention about ridley im not sure this helps but i came with this theory from the ridley thread

I got one to help ridley i just had a Eureka momment

You guys should ask this why were the platforms added to the pyrosphere stage
I think its rising lava is what the hazard is on that stage
I mean platforms were added on the other metroid stages to avoid the lava
And maybe the ship has a draining system for the lava for bringing the lava back down
And plus it is a lava stages and the lava stages have a history in smash bros for rising and lowering

And the quote simply refering to the other m game ridley dident jump out and attack in other m until samus destoryed the plug in the pyrosphere

What do you guys think

 

[Groose]

Falco Lombardi (Star Fox)
94.69% chance
74.74% want

Falco performed well in chance, but his semi-clone status seems to have turned a few people away from him. He scored below Lucas, Ike, R.O.B, and the Ice Climbers... but he did manage to beat out Pokemon Trainer, Lucario, and Toon Link in want.

Today we will be returning to the realm of third-parties and greeting an old friend. Bomberman (aka DynaBlaster) was once a legendary Hudson character... but much like Mega Man, he has fallen. Purchased by Konami, Bomberman has been without a hug title for a while. Will Smash signal his return to form? Or are his glory days behind him? Please leave chance and want on Bomberman.

Please predict how Kamek will do in tomorrow's game. The wizard managed to teleport ahead of Slime in the nominations list. DukeofShorts wins the extra nominations today. His strategy of predicting 94.99% really helped him... if he had not done so, there would have been a nine-way tie for the noms. But he cut of a hundreth of a percent, true Price is Right style...

Tingle has been added to the nominations list again. Kooloo-Limpah!

EDIT: Oh, yeah. The server crash messed up my update schedule. This day will run for roughly thirty hours so I can work myself back onto schedule.