Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[MargnetMan23]

who cares anyways, it's his decision!

Secretly my main reason for preferring the venusaur pic was because I was the one who posted it on these boards in the first place
EDIT: Sorry for getting off topic Groose XD

 

[Toxicroaker]

Hey, at least Omastar has a decent chance of being a pokeball pokemon and I believe omanyte was referenced in pokemon stadium 2, chancellor cole would be lucky to be a trophy XD

he could always be a sticker :D but no omastar is not "likely" he just has a chance.

 

[MargnetMan23]

he could always be a sticker :D but no omastar is not "likely" he just has a chance.

Well where in my post did I say "likely" But seriously arguing this is the equivalent of predicting if Joe has obsidian in his somewhat small rock collection XD

 

[Toxicroaker]

Well where in my post did I say "likely" But seriously arguing this is the equivalent of predicting if Joe has obsidian in his somewhat small rock collection XD

oh... sorry... I misread...

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Not sure if you're still taking music for Sonic Groose, but I have a few more I think you should add. While I like Genesis Sonic music the best, these are probably my favorites from his newer games: Endless Possibilities, Final Boss - Perfect Dark Gaia, and Molten Mine. Thanks!

 

[Glaciacott]

Brief unrelated note

For all of you who have never played a Rhythm Heaven game or a Sin and Punishment game (and had the chances of the respective characters take a nose-dive as a result), the Wii versions of each are at like $10 and $15 respectively on Amazon.

I, for one, I'm leaping at this chance since I missed out on both games.

 

[MargnetMan23]

Brief unrelated note

For all of you who have never played a Rhythm Heaven game or a Sin and Punishment game (and had the chances of the respective characters take a nose-dive as a result), the Wii versions of each are at like $10 and $15 respectively on Amazon.

I, for one, I'm leaping at this chance since I missed out on both games.

10 to 15 dollars? Hmm if only xenoblade was that cheap XD

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

The question is how will the sonic votes are going to be

 

[Groose]

WOW! The OP got its very first like today! Wahoo!

Not sure if you're still taking music for Sonic Groose, but I have a few more I think you should add. While I like Genesis Sonic music the best, these are probably my favorites from his newer games: Endless Possibilities, Final Boss - Perfect Dark Gaia, and Molten Mine. Thanks!

I'm always taking music for any character. I thank you for this; I'll add it after I update the day.

The question is how will the sonic votes are going to be

We'll see. I'm preparing the day now.

Brief unrelated note

For all of you who have never played a Rhythm Heaven game or a Sin and Punishment game (and had the chances of the respective characters take a nose-dive as a result), the Wii versions of each are at like $10 and $15 respectively on Amazon.

I, for one, I'm leaping at this chance since I missed out on both games.

I've played the DS Rhythm Heaven game; I currently have no drive to play another because I've got too many games on my plate. I've always wanted to try Sin and Punishment, though, and may have to look into it.

Robin's Chances: 10%
They do have a chance of beating Chrom/Lucina. I'm not sure of how great those chances will be, though.

Robin Want: 35%
It seems like they'd bring an interesting magic based moveset and they seem like less of an avatar than Mii. Still, I'm not a Fire Emblem enthusiast.

Sonic Prediction: 76.34
I expect doubters.

Layton x10.

DAY OVER ​

​

RETURN OF GROOOOOOOOOOOOOOSE​

 

[Starcutter]

​

RETURN OF GROOOOOOOOOOOOOOSE​

​

um, I think you spilled some cheerios. might want to get on that.

 

[Groose]

Robin (Fire Emblem)
15.10% chance
38.90% want

Robin fell shy of Lucina and Chrom in chance and want. Fortunately, he/she did defeat Lyn in both aspects. Perhaps this is a tactical position?

Today, Sonic the Hedgehog has sped into the arena. He's brought with him a music section of over forty tracks spanning over twenty years. Woot! Please leave your chance and want on Sonic today.

Tomorrow we'll be taking another look at the Pokemon franchise. The contestant? Genesect. Please predict how Genesect will do in tomorrow's game. Doing so can earn you extra noms, like those won by Good Guy Giygas, Ocarina of Doom, and Salty the SLUG. Have fun with the extra five. Please note that there are no bonus nominations for everyone today; we are back to the normal five.

Finally, it is my pleasure to announce that Takamaru has once again been added to the nominations list.

 

[SonicMario]

Sonic

Likelihood: 97%

The only reason he can't be 100% assured is that he is 3rd party and some may even think he was one-and-done for Brawl as with Snake. However there's plenty of reasons why he's still more-then-likely back. And even if he isn't why it would be a huge mistake on Nintendo and even Sakurai's part.

• Sonic was the most requested 3rd Party in the series bar none. Perhaps even character in general. They delayed Brawl partially for completing Sonic's development. This time they can plan him out better and properly put him within the game's balance.
• Nintendo and Sega are BFFs by now. Ever since Sega went out of business and Nintendo put out their hands for their former business rival their relationship has grown stronger year after year after year. The Mario & Sonic Olympic game series and Sonic's inclusion in Brawl is proof of this. Considering the former still makes good money, and the latter was well received. Why would they miss out the chance to have another game where Sonic can play with or against Mario? And as a side note, you have Megaman in this game as well. It'd be the only game you could find Sonic, Mario, AND Megaman in the same game. And that's special enough to warrant a lot of interest.
• Also regarding the previous point is the Exclusive deal Sega and Nintendo did for three exclusive Sonic games for the Wii U and 3DS. We know 2 of the 3, that would be Sonic Lost World and Mario & Sonic at the Sochi Winter Olympics. The third one is TBA, though some speculate the 3rd game is SSB4 itself. Though even if it's not, it doesn't entirely mean this deal had absolutely nothing to do with Smash. In fact it could have very well had a hidden clause to it. I personally believe the very first Mario & Sonic Olympics game was part of a deal with Sega when they negotiated putting Sonic in Brawl. And I believe the Nintendo exclusive deal is doing it once again for SSB4
• Sakurai doesn't like cuts. Yes Sonic is 3rd Party and he could be an entirely different case, but Sakurai as of yet has not said he doesn't like cutting characters except for Non-nintendo Guests. What happened in the previous cuts from Melee to Brawl? 4 Clones were cut, and only one one actual original moveset character that was essentially replaced by Lucario who was similar in a few ways and also a better fighter. Even if the transition to Brawl to SSB4 is the first to cut characters from the previous game that had their own moveset without any kind of replacement (As in GONE gone, like anything similar to their moveset is not possible to use in the game). Why would Sonic be gone when he was so wanted in the first place. If Sonic's gone, Sakurai and/or Nintendo basically gave the finger to the fans who really wanted him in Brawl because Sonic fans like me would not be satisfied with a one-and-done appearance for Sonic in the Smash Bros. series. We'd like him to be a staple of the series. We want more of Sonic fighting against Nintendo's best.

Want: 100%

Additionally, Megaman fans should be paying attention to if Sonic returns or not. If Sonic of all characters doesn't return it should be bittersweet for Megaman fans. Because the most popular 3rd party wasn't in the series for more then one game. It would mean when they get SSB4 it's their only chance to play as Mega Man in Smash Bros. Because as soon as SSB5 rolls around. Megaman's gone with Sonic.

(I assume if that happens though there will be outcries that will probably get both Sonic and Megaman both in the fifth Smash Bros. but let's hope Sonic and Megaman are in the fourth game together and once again in the 5th game. Sonic and Megaman being the constant 3rd Party veterans.)

But in all seriousness, the only reason he'd be cut is the "Exclusive 3rd Party guest" condition. Which I'm not afraid to say, would be complete and utter bull****. Given Sonic's humongous popularity, and relevancy to Nintendo now. At least until that 3rd game in the Nintendo Exclusive deal is released, Sonic is a temporary Nintendo character. And just in time for Smash Bros. too.

It's absolutely imperative that Sonic returns in the next game.

 

[BlitznBurst]

Sonic chances: 98%. SEGA has expressed their support for Sonic in Smash 4, he's a popular character, and as I've said multiple times all veterans are by all means in the game already - they just might not be finished and time and have to be cut. Sonic is popular enough to be cnsidered a priority imo - of course, it's entirely possible that I'm completely wrong on that, so no 100%.
Want: 100%. I very nearly shouted "YES!" out loud when he was announced for Brawl.

Genesect prediction: 30%. Mewtwo pretty pretty much halved his fanbase, so eh

Skull Kid X5

 

[MargnetMan23]

98% If Sakurai wants to add him which he can and most likely will then there shouldn't be anything in his way he'd be much easier to get SEGA to allow them to implement this time around
Want: 95% he should stay
Genesect: A couple of people will give him like a 30% or something but others will give him depressingly low scores so 16.8%
Nomz: Mr. Game and Watch x4 Omastar x1

 

[Groose]

Want: 100%. I very nearly shouted "YES!" out loud when he was announced for Brawl.

Son, I am disappoint. I DID shout "YES!"

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Sonic:

Likelihood: 100% - Yes, I'm that sure of it. Not only is Sega so tight to Nintendo right now that they could practically be considered 2nd party, but no way would Sakurai have went through so much trouble to add him in Brawl just to cut him in the next game. Take that into account, and then combine that with the fact that he has the history of being the most wanted and most hyped character in Smash Bros, and I feel that he's 100% assured, I even dare bet that he'll be announced well in time with Lost World's release.

Want: 98% - Not really a big fan of how he plays in Smash Bros, but with more time on their hands to add him they can probably give him some other moves than turning into a ball. Other than that do I even need to explain? Okay, maybe I do since I have claimed to not be a big fan of him in general in the past, but I'm currently trying out the older Sonic games, and I'm really beginning to dig them.

Genesect Prediction: 14%

Nominations:
5x K. Rool

 

[Yams]

Sonic:
Likelihood: 85% There's no reason for him to leave, and he is the most significant 3rd party character than could POSSIBLY be added. But, again, if there are a lot of cuts I feel like MegaMan and some other 3rd party could possibly replace Sonic and Snake. also, I doubt they'd get rid of Snake and keep Sonic.
Want: 100% I want all vets to return.

Genesect: 20%

Duck Hunt Dog x5

 

[loganhogan]

Sonic 75%
I doubt he's leaving he's too iconic and Sega is too buddy buddy with Nintendo.

Want 50% I've never liked known Sonic enough to like him sorry.

 

[BlitznBurst]

I did let out some sort of fangirl squee trying to repress my cheers, if that's any better

You should add Stardust Speedway to the music, though. And Metal Sonic's theme from Sonic 4 episode 2. And the Death Egg fight from Generations.

And Orchestral Reach for teh Stars. That track entirely made up for how pitifully easy the boss fight was lol (edit: well you did add the regular version, I must have missed that)

EDIT: You listed Flying Battery Zone twice lol.

 

[Deleted member]

To be honest, I've been waiting for this day to come. Hahaha!
Sonic the Hedgehog
Chances: 95%
Now 95%... that's a lot don't you think? Hear me out on this. As we all know in 2005 the creator of Sonic, Yuji Naka, was a part of an interview and said that he wanted to have Sonic as a playable character in Melee, but that didn't happen due to time constraints. In 2006, Brawl's E3 trailer ended with SSB's first third party character appearing in the game with Konami's Solid Snake entering the battle. With a massive fanbase to back up Sonic to be playable in Brawl and being one of the most requested characters of all-time in the series, Sonic was confirmed to be playable in October 2007 and was a late addition to the roster. Since then in 2008 with Brawl's release, Sonic's career has picked up in gaming even after the abomination known as Sonic 06 (which I kinda like since it's so-bad-it's-good) with Sonic Unleashed (it wasn't really good, but it did show that Sega was getting themselves together). However, his ties with Nintendo has grew even stronger. In fact, Sonic appeared with his rival Mario in the Olympic Games in late 2007. Sonic also has numerous upon numerous console exclusive games on Nintendo's systems such as the Sonic Rush games, Sonic Colors, and now Sonic Lost World. As of right now, Nintendo and Sega are in a partnership which does help his chances by quite a bit in my opinion. Not only that, but Sonic Team's Takashi Iizuka said in an interview that he would like to have Sonic be playable in SSB4, however he mentioned that it's more or less Nintendo's decision for him to return. Lastly, Sonic barely has competition. His massive fan support from Brawl is still there or it's stronger by now meaning that he has an edge over most third party characters even still. Snake, the other third party character in Brawl, doesn't have as good of chances of appearing over Sonic since the Metal Gear Solid games haven't appearing on Nintendo consoles as of recent (the 3DS got a MGS3 remake while the Wii U doesn't get MGS5 for some reason) while Sonic has been active on Nintendo consoles. The one obstacle standing against Sonic is Sakurai himself as he may want to bring back Sonic or may not want to bring back Sonic at all. With all of this in mind, I think Sonic has great chances, possibly even greater chances than he had in Brawl.
Want: 100%
I have been a Sonic fan for a long time (I am a bigger Mario fan however). I love the classics, but I've been playing games like Sonic Adventure 1 and 2, Sonic 06, Sonic Colors, and the amazing Sonic Generations as of recent and I have grown to like the character even more. I would understand if Sonic didn't return, but I would be incredibly disappointed if he didn't as he just fits in so perfectly. I hope that Sonic comes back with a better moveset as well.

Genesect Prediction: 20.3%
Genesect is popular, but I don't see it having massive chances even though it recently got a movie.

Nominations: Bowser Jr. 5x
Umm... sorry for the long post. I hope you don't mind! Hahaha!

 

[Groose]

Umm... sorry for the long post. I hope you don't mind! Hahaha!

Longer posts with more thought behind them are generally preferred .

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Sonic the Hedgehog-

Likelihood: 99% He's too inconic and wanted, and with his Mario sport spin-off crossovers and such, his chances of being removed are very low.

Want: 100% Sonics da boss. He's awesome.

 

[GuyWithTheFace]

Sonic
Chance: 95% Didn't that one Sega dude say that they'd sign over Sonic's rights for another Smash appearance the second Nintendo asked? On top of that, Sonic's just about the most significant 3rd party character to Nintendo's history, and one of the most wanted characters in general. The only real obstacle is if Sakurai takes "Guest characters" too literally. But with Sonic's popularity, that would be an incredibly dumb marketing decision, and someone at Nintendo would be sure to overrule him if he even thought about dropping Sonic.
Want: 100% I love Sonic's games. Hell, even though a lot of people didn't like his moveset, he was like my 3rd or 4th most played character in Brawl. I would really like him to get a non-ball transforming move or two though.

Genesect prediction: 9.5% Mewtwo, Lucario, New Pokemon Trainer, Zoroark, some 6th gen guy we haven't seen yet... He's got a ton of competition, and even worse is that every Pokemon choice, (Assuming no two Pokemon from one evolution family... *cough cough* Pichu *cough cough*) would be very unique.

Nominate Mona x2 Porky x3

 

[Smasher 101]

Sonic's chances: 99%
Want: 100%

Genesect prediction: 15%

Falco x5

 

[Deleted member]

Longer posts with more thought behind them are generally preferred .

Alrighty! Thank you!

 

[MargnetMan23]

Longer posts with more thought behind them are generally preferred .

If I recall correctly you liked that one post I made where I was too lazy to explain at all XD

 

[Opossum]

Sonic time!

Likelihood: 75%
This is the same score I'll give Snake, for future reference. I don't see either leaving, but licensing issues cause me to give a slightly lower score. That being said, I'd bet on his return.

Want: 100%
I really don't want any cuts.

Predicting a 46% for Genesect.

Nominating Falco x5

 

[MattX20]

Sonic: 95%
Given how Sonic was by far one of the most heavily requested characters, if not the most heavily requested character of all time, I can't see him getting cut at all. Plus, Sega and Nintendo have been on good terms for years.

Want: 90%
Having Mario, Sonic, and Megaman all in the same game would be one of the best things ever.

Genesect: 10%
Even though this character has become a bit more popular with fans, his chances are still pretty slim compared to the demand for Mewtwo's return.

Nom:
Shantae X5

 

[Seraphim.]

Sonic

Chance: 93% I don't see Sonic leaving anytime soon.

Want: 82%

Genesect: 11%

Nom:

Roy x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Sonic: 80%
The ball is literally in Sakurai's court. I think there's a small chance he might go the route of having guest characters only stay for 1 game but I'm more confident he'll let him stay especially when the next big sonic game is a Nintendo exclusive.

Want: 100% but fix his moveset.

Genesect: 18%
x5 Impa

 

[Starcutter]

Sonic: 85%
Want 90%

genesect 24%

nominations
Kamek x5

 

[Groose]

If I recall correctly you liked that one post I made where I was too lazy to explain at all XD

It amused me that you were so frank about it

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

I WON SOMETHING!

Sonic: 80%
Want: 75%
Genesect: 25%

Roy x 10

 

[Glaciacott]

Sonic
Chances 99%
I seriously considered giving him a hundred, but once again I'll go 99% taking into account the very important factor of nothing being certain and no one here being Sakurai.

Want 100%
ah, Sonic and I go way back. My first videogames were Super Mario Bros 2 and Sonic the Hedgehog 2, or at least the first ones I remember consciously playing and beating.
Then one time, during the Melee era, I bought a magazine called EGM, and in it they had this "trick" where you could unlock Sonic and Tails by beating 20 wire frames in Cruel Melee. I flipped sh*t and proceeded to try before realizing that it might be a joke (it was.)
Several years later in October 10, 2007, I was taking a nap when I got a call from my screaming cousin. While he composed himself, I opened Firefox and, with the Dojo being my homepage, once again I lost my sh*t upon seeing Sonic standing there in all his glory, with into video and everything. I must have seen that video at least a hundred times within that week, much in the same fashion I had the Mega Man reveal and the first trailer on repeat for a month this past summer.

Point is, Sonic in Smash is not something we can underestimate, and given Sega's eagerness to both promote Sonic more and make him Nintendo exclusive, it's such a given that he's perfect to return to Smash.

Prediction
Genesect 8.32%
Some will give their normal "30%" scores, but I hope enough reasonable people bring it down (Pokemon, after all, is already extremely well represented.)

Nominations
x5 Porky Minch

 

[jaytalks]

Sonic: My personal belief is that he will be in the game. But there are no external factors I can point to that have anything close to a proven effect. I don't think any amount of appearances on a Nintendo console is a determinable factor, as both previous 3rd party characters have made appearance the previous/current generation. Sonic with Sonic Colors and main others. Snake appeared in Snake Eater for the 3DS, which is the same amount of appearances he had before appearing in Brawl (with Twin Snakes for the GC). There is nothing to suggest that company relationship also is a factor. Nintendo has a great relationship with Sega (post Dreamcast), but they have never had a particular good relationship with Konami. Konami still has had releases for the 3DS though. But there is nothing to suggest that is a factor in Sakurai's thinking.

The thing he working against him is that if A) the Brawl appearance was supposed to a one-off thing, and B) Sakurai opts to keep the number at 2, which would make it a battle against Sonic and Snake. I haven't seen any quotes that indicate the first is a possibility on that concept. The second is possible based "Don't expect a lot of 3rd party characters quote." But there are few factors to consider. There aren't a lot of character who really fit into the class of Mega Man, Sonic, or Snake that have strong Nintendo based relationship from companies outside of Capcom, Sega, and Konami. There's Pac-Man, maybe Professor Layton. It's smart to think that each company would only get a max of one rep due to not wanting to create the perception of favoritism and to limit third part character.

At the end of day, I do think it's smart to be open to the possibility that Sonic won't be in the game. There is too much unknown about the third party selection process and how it may differ from other characters. So keeping in mind the possibility of A and B, I would say:
Likelihood: 75%
In FE terms, I would probably try the attack but I would have to make sure my HP is strong prior.

Want: 100%. Sonic vs Mario is still such a big money maker. I still hold out hope that Super Mario 3D World is the stop gap between now and the Sonic vs Mario platformer. As a Nintendo guy who became a fan of the Sega series after the fall of the Dreamcast, Sonic is close to one of my top wanted in demand returners. Perhaps even number one, even if I don't play as him very often.

Genesect Prediction: 24.52%. Most people will see Mewtwo as the inevitable Smash 4 add and allow that thinking to affect their decisions.
Nominations:
Lip x 5

 

[Groose]

Then one time, during the Melee era, I bought a magazine called EGM, and in it they had this "trick" where you could unlock Sonic and Tails by beating 20 wire frames in Cruel Melee. I flipped sh*t and proceeded to try before realizing that it might be a joke (it was.)
Several years later in October 10, 2007, I was taking a nap when I got a call from my screaming cousin. While he composed himself, I opened Firefox and, with the Dojo being my homepage, once again I lost my sh*t upon seeing Sonic standing there in all his glory, with into video and everything. I must have seen that video at least a hundred times within that week, much in the same fashion I had the Mega Man reveal and the first trailer on repeat for a month this past summer.

This story. *Sniffs* Sooo touching.

 

[Sid-cada]

Sonic the Hedgehog

Chance - 92% - A bit higher than what I gave for Solid Snake's score (and if it isn't, it is now). Though I consider it possible for him to appear without Snake, I consider the two largely connected.

Want - 100% - The old Sega vs. Nintendo stuff may be past my generation, but even I know the old "Genesis does what Nintendon't" stuff. You're kidding me if you don't think Sonic vs. Mario is THE gaming rivalry to end all rivalries.


Genesect Prediction - 10% - Likely to be overshadowed in his own movie by Mewtwo and his new form. That's ... a poor statement for his supporters.

Nominations -
Roy X2
Lip X2
Anna X1

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Likely hood 95%
I would give the full 100% but its still a glimmer of possibility that will get kicked but If that happen then I'm a unicorn who's a carnivore but Rees way too much evidence that he won't be kicked

1 Nintendo and sega are like best friends

2 yuji waka said he wanted sonic in ssbm but not enough time was the problem just like with snake

3 quite a few sonic games are Nintendo console exclusive

4 Mario and sonic has there own cross over game and its the biggest sport event every 4/2 years the winter and summer Olympic Games

5 name one reason he will not make it due to third party well actually possible 2nd party now

6 why the hell would we want to kick the most requested character out of all 3rd and Nintendo characters in existence even more than mewtwo

7 he was in super smash bros brawl

8 was most request character in brawl now most requested returner

9 could get announce in October or November (October sonic lost worlds) (November the next Mario and sonic at the Olympic Games) and usually not all but most characters will probably will get announce for special case (what I mean is olimar got announced one day before pikmin 3 came out and luigi got announce because of the year of luigi aka Mario bros for nes's 30th anniversary )

10 we are all saying 100% on wanting him he my be the first and only character with a 100% wnt besides mewtwo

Want 100%
I'm part of the want him in smash bros fan club literally

 

[BlitznBurst]

This story. *Sniffs* Sooo touching.

Holy ****, Groose, your avatar

What

 

[Opossum]

Sonic the Hedgehog

Chance - 92% - A bit higher than what I gave for Solid Snake's score (and if it isn't, it is now). Though I consider it possible for him to appear without Snake, I consider the two largely connected.

Want - 100% - The old Sega vs. Nintendo stuff may be past my generation, but even I know the old "Genesis does what Nintendon't" stuff. You're kidding me if you don't think Sonic vs. Mario is THE gaming rivalry to end all rivalries.


Genesect Prediction - 10% - Likely to be overshadowed in his own movie by Mewtwo and his new form. That's ... a poor statement for his supporters.

Nominations -
Roy X2
Lip X2
Anna X1

B-but...we didn't rate Snake yet.