Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Groose]

Oh and props to Groose for updating the OP. You do a lot around here man for which we are grateful. That said, I'm glad you still pay attention to the details as for some of us it helps us get more excited about this little forum game.

​

No problem. I'm happy to help. The vast majority of the credit goes to SSBF; he put everything in motion. A special thanks should go to Habenero, too, as he helped me transition to running the game.

I do have some... fairly major changes I have to go over with you today. It's nothing game-threatening, but it will change things quite a bit.

Revote on Ridley

Hold it now, hold it now, hold it right there! There's still a week before Ridley becomes eligible for re-vote.

As for my nominations, you'll be pleased:
Tingle x5

Groose approves of this message.

 

[Groose]

Lyn Prediction: 15% Lyn faces a number of obstacles. Marth is pretty much guarenteed. Awakening, the game that revived the series, is probably going to get a rep. Ike wants to stay. Roy wants to return. That doesn't leave much room, now does it?

However, Lyn dominates what little room is left. And, heck, there is always the chance, however slight, she beats out Ike or an Awakening rep.

Lyn Want: 20% I'm tepid when it comes to Fire Emblem. At the very least, she isn't a blue-haired lord. Even so, I don't think she'd be overly unique and I'm not huge on her character, so it's a no-go for me.

Chrom Prediction: 78% Try as they may, no one will be able to argue against the fact that he's the main lord in the last notable Fire Emblem game.

Nominate Tingle x10! We're the frontrunner going into Day 27! Kooloo-Limpah Power, baby!

 

[Groose]

 

[Opossum]

Can't wait for this day to start. I'll start by saying this, though.

Now, before people unfairly deem Chrom to be "just another blue-haired unoriginal sword-lord," I urge you to take a look at the movesets in the OP of the Chrom thread. :3 He can work really well as a stance-based character, with a "Falchion" stance, and a "Lance" stance. And just because Chrom is in, doesn't mean Ike is out. They're plenty different enough.

Just wanted to say that before the day started.


EDIT: Wait, this game is going to be Smashboards-exclusive after today?

 

[Fire Emblemier]

Can't wait for this day to start. I'll start by saying this, though.

Now, before people unfairly deem Chrom to be "just another blue-haired unoriginal sword-lord," I urge you to take a look at the movesets in the OP of the Chrom thread. :3 He can work really well as a stance-based character, with a "Falchion" stance, and a "Lance" stance. And just because Chrom is in, doesn't mean Ike is out. They're plenty different enough.

Just wanted to say that before the day started.

Something like this should of been stated for Lyn, too.

 

[Groose]

Lyn (Fire Emblem):
10.38% overall chance (12.74% Smashboards, 5.34% GameFAQS)
30.58% overall want (36.26% Smashboards, 16.84% GameFAQs)
Lyn scored poorly in chance, with the dreaded irrelevant comment dealing the finishing blow. Fortunately, she did persuade nearly a third of you that she would be a good choice.

Today’s candidate is Chrom, also of Fire Emblem. He seeks to change the roster so he can duel with his ancestor Marth. Please rate the chance and want of Chrom today.


Please predict how people will rate Toad, our candidate for tomorrow. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by BKupa666 and Luxorlight.

Special Announcement: After Chrom's day in the spotlight, this game will be leaving Gamefaqs and living strictly here on Smashboards. I'll post a FAQ on the Page 1, Post 3 of this thread shortly explaining my decision and its impact. Please be sure not to account for GameFAQs in your Toad prediction!

 

[Fastblade5035]

Something like this should of been stated for Lyn, too.

Chrom needs it more, as most people will desregard him as "Blue haired swordsman" or "another swordsman" or "not roy" And Chrom seems to be hated with a passion here, save a few people, whereas Lyn is mostly just meh or neutral here.




--------------------------------------------
Chorm
Chances: 58%
Has to compete with Roy, which is no small task. However, there is a chance that IS will push for Chrom, seeing how Awakening basically saved the series. Whether Sakurai goes with Chrom or not is yet to be seen, but aside from Roy, and maybe Ike is Sakurai wants 2 FE reps, he has good chances.

Want: 100%
Because I want Chrom.

Toad: 48%

Noms:
Omastar x1
Gaius x3
Yarne x1

Also this:

 

[Opossum]

Chrom's the Bomb!

Likelihood: 82%

This is the same score I gave Roy. I feel they have equal odds.

Want: 100%
That being said, I actually want Chrom a bit more. :3

Prediction for Toad: 45%

Nominating Ike x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelyhood: 85%
Want: 50%

Toad: 28%

Karate Joe x5

 

[FlareHabanero]

Also, I'm not going to ***** about Chrom. Just saying that before smart ass comments crop up.

 

[Fire Emblemier]

Chrom-
Likelihood-83%
Even though he's not my most wanted FE rep he is the most likely newcomer.

Want-45%
I'm not a Roy fanboy, or in fear of him replacing Ike, I just rather have someone else personally like Lyn or Lucina. Nothing about hating him though, he's cool in his game.

Toad Prediction-5%

Nomination-
Masked Man5x

 

[ZeldaMaster]

Chrom-
Likelihood-83 %
Of all potential new FE reps, Chrom is the most likely. He is the main lord from the most successful FE game ever, and his game saved the series. Plus, Arena Ferox has already been confirmed as a stage.

Want-100 %
Chrom is my #1 most wanted newcomer (That's saying a lot).

Toad Prediction- 10 %
Nominate Ike X5

 

[SpaceJell0]

Chrom:
Chance: 90% Star of the FE game that saved all to come and a stage from that very game already confirmed? Probably in already.
Want: 80% After learning of FE Awakening's large effect on the entire FE series, I gained respect for him. I'm just doubtful he'll use anything but a sword

Toad Prediction: 60%*

Nominations: x5 Starfy
*missed the 6 key and hit the 7 >.<

 

[MargnetMan23]

80% I honestly doubt Roy will be of much competition so given the fact that it is likely we'll get someone other then Marth and Ike for FE Chrom is the most likely newcomer for being from the go to recent FE game and being easily the most likely rep from that pool.
Want: 60% I sort of like Chrom but ehhhhhhhhhh
Toad: 38.4% If Mario gets another rep he has some competition and what will Peach have as a neutral b then? XD and Mario honestly doesn't need new reps.
Nomz: x3 Omastar
x2 Mr. Game and Watch

 

[Erimir]

Chrom
Popularity: Seems to be the most desired after Roy by Smash fans. He's probably pretty popular among FE fans, being from the higher selling and most recent game.

Relevancy: Main lord in the most recent game.

Design: Another sword-wielding blue-haired FE lord. Yes, there are options to make him different. Marth and Ike obviously don't play the same. Doesn't change the fact that he is fairly similar (and visually speaking that's true too).

Competition: Like I said for Lyn, I don't think there's much chance of more than one FE newcomer. So he's competing against Roy, Lucina, Lyn and miscellaneous other. I think he beats out everyone but Roy. I'm weighting Smash fan desires a little higher than FE fan desires.

Chrom chances: 38%
Roy is his biggest competition, and they're competing for most likely only one spot. They can't both be over 50% and have Lucina and Lyn get some chances too if there's only one spot. That's just how the math works out. Still pretty likely, comparatively speaking.

Chrom want: 30%
Meh.

Toad prediction: 43%

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

Now, before people unfairly deem Chrom to be "just another blue-haired unoriginal sword-lord," I urge you to take a look at the movesets in the OP of the Chrom thread. :3 He can work really well as a stance-based character, with a "Falchion" stance, and a "Lance" stance.

So not only do I get another blue-haired sword-lord, but he takes up a whole bunch of extra dev time by having almost twice as many moves? I don't know why people think such complicated move sets are very plausible (saw the same thing with Little Mac having a defensive stance). There's no character that works that way unless you count Sheik and other transforming characters. Maybe Sakurai will make a stance-based character, but there's no guarantee it would be Chrom.

Yes, yes, Sakurai can make him unique. He can make anyone unique if he really wants to. Obviously he's not going to make Chrom a clone. He'd probably be about as unique as Ike. But I'm pretty sure when Sakurai talks about potential for uniqueness, he's talking about characters like Olimar, Mr. Game & Watch and Mega Man though. And Chrom (and Ike) are clearly is not in that league. So I think given the most likely move sets, Chrom is less unique than the average character in Brawl. Doesn't mean he'd suck, or wouldn't be fun or can't be in (Toon Link and Wolf got in just fine). But he's no Ice Climbers or ROB.

 

[XenothiumX]

Chrom likelihood: 50%

Chrom want; 50% (indifferent)

Toad Prediction: 28%

nominations:
Sandbag x5

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Chrom chances 80%: by far best selling fire emblem game, great reviews, and most recent.

Want: 70%: Its funny, i just started playing awakening today, and its my first fire emblem. He seems like a pretty cool guy, and i have no doubts he can be made into a unique character. By far my most wanted fire emblem rep, but there are other characters i would rather see


Toad: 22%

Nominations:
Bomberman x5

 

[Opossum]

So not only do I get another blue-haired sword-lord, but he takes up a whole bunch of extra dev time by having almost twice as many moves? I don't know why people think such complicated move sets are very plausible (saw the same thing with Little Mac having a defensive stance). There's no character that works that way unless you count Sheik and other transforming characters. Maybe Sakurai will make a stance-based character, but there's no guarantee it would be Chrom.

Yes, yes, Sakurai can make him unique. He can make anyone unique if he really wants to. Obviously he's not going to make Chrom a clone. He'd probably be about as unique as Ike. But I'm pretty sure when Sakurai talks about potential for uniqueness, he's talking about characters like Olimar, Mr. Game & Watch and Mega Man though. And Chrom (and Ike) are clearly is not in that league. So I think given the most likely move sets, Chrom is less unique than the average character in Brawl. Doesn't mean he'd suck, or wouldn't be fun or can't be in (Toon Link and Wolf got in just fine). But he's no Ice Climbers or ROB.

@the bolded: Exactly. The stance archetype is a (rather common) fighting game character archetype that Smash Bros. really lacks, at this point. That being said, not many characters can really get a stance-based moveset that aren't already in without one. Chrom allows for this set-up easily, seeing as he has access to two types of weapons.

And it wouldn't be all of the moves that change, only about ten or so, if my moveset is used as a basis.

 

[Groose]

EDIT: Wait, this game is going to be Smashboards-exclusive after today?

I'm sorry, but yes. There's no way around it. It will be odd for a brief bit, but once we adapt most of us will find this favorable.

I apologize for this move. Please read the third post on the first page for details, and I will gladly respond to PMs when next I'm on.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Chrom
Likelihood: 80% I don't play Fire Emblem, but based on what I've seen, he has a pretty good chance of turning up on the roster.
Want: 60% I really like Ike. He's one of my best characters as well as one my favorites in the game and I use him very frequently. He was the first character I mastered when I bought Brawl and he quickly became one of my mains. I know it's not guaranteed that Chrom will replace Ike, but there's a very good chance he will. But I'm willing to give Chrom a shot as long as he's somewhat like 'ol Ike.

Toad: 20%

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[Opossum]

I'm sorry, but yes. There's no way around it. It will be odd for a brief bit, but once we adapt most of us will find this favorable.

I apologize for this move. Please read the third post on the first page for details, and I will gladly respond to PMs when next I'm on.

I'm not mad, haha. It was just unexpected.

 

[Groose]

I'm not mad, haha. It was just unexpected.

I sincerely hope others will be as patient.

As I've tried to explain, this is a move I didn't want to do, but I did it for the sake of courtesy and the future. I hope that we can put it all behind us in a day or two and move on.

 

[Toxicroaker]

chrom: 65%
want: 90%

Toad predict: 53%

x5 zoroark

 

[Swamp Sensei]

No GameFAQs. Huh... Everything okay?

Anyways....

Chrom prediction: 75%
This is a little lower than I gave Roy but the only reason Roy is higher is due to fan demand favoring him.

Want: 55% He could be cool, but I don't know much about him. That may change after I get Awakening.

Toad Prediction: 43% He'll do about as well as Jr.

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x3
Ike
R.O.B

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

Chrom prediction: 90%, almost inevitable, but not quite, I kind of want to keep a open mind to Lucina.

Toad prediction: 85%, if he was a Assist Trophy, otherwise, I'd say no chance.

Nominations:

Ganondorf
Isaac
King K Rool

 

[---]

Chrom - 55%
Want - 30%
+ Was in a recent FE game
+ Arguably popular
- Arguably expected more than wanted
- Has moveset troubles due to wielding Marth's Falchion
- Stiff Competition from Roy

I think I gave Roy 45%, so this is fair.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Toad prediction: 85%, if he was a Assist Trophy, otherwise, I'd say no chance.

We're voting for playable characters not assist trophies.... So vote Toad's likliness for being playable.

Isaac
King K Rool

We already voted on these two.

 

[Seraphim.]

Chance : 60% I don't think he is as set in stone as many think he is.
Want: 20%

Toad: 30%

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

We're voting for playable characters not assist trophies.... So vote Toad's likliness for being playable.
We already voted on these two.

Fair enough though it's not a high number seeing by how I said "otherwise no chance"

Toad: 2%, I just don't see him playable guys.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Fair enough though it's not a high number seeing by how I said "otherwise no chance"

Toad: 2%, I just don't see him playable guys.

K, still gotta choose other choices for your nominations.

And you have five nominations btw, not three.

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

K, still gotta choose other choices for your nominations.

And you have five nominations btw, not three.

Ok, my nominations

Ganondorf
Ghirahim
Waluigi
Zoroark
Pokémon Trainer

That's five, thanks for the help.

 

[AfricanSanta]

Chrom chances- 90%- He's the star of the most recent, most well received, and highest selling Fire Emblem game. I'm almost positive he'll make it. And the "he'd just be another sword character" argument is stupid. Most of Fire Emblem's relevant characters are.

Chrom want- 85%- Chrom's awesome.

Toad prediction- 43%

Nominations
Dillon x5

 

[Xenigma]

No more GameFAQs? Probably better in the long term, though I wonder how SSBF would feel about it. Anyway...

Chrom - 40%
I'm giving him the same rating I gave Lucina, as I believe they are by far the two frontrunners for a new Fire Emblem spot thanks to the wild success of Awakening, and it's a toss-up between the two who gets picked. There's no doubt that between the two Chrom is the more visible character and the one with more overall importance within the Awakening plot, plus he enjoys tons of popularity. By those few metrics it's clear why everyone thinks Chrom is the top choice for SSB4. I just don't think it's clear cut that he's the pick, especially considering the current roster of Smash characters: what exactly does Chrom, a male, blue-haired lord, have to offer that Marth and Ike, two other male, blue-haired lords, do not? Meanwhile, there's Lucina, who IS has been pushing post-release, also enjoys a ton of popularity among fans, and would at the very least offer the differentiation of being female. We already know that Sakurai likes asking IS for who they think should rep FE, and it seems to me they're as likely to say Lucina as they are Chrom. In my mind it's too even a race to call, not to mention the tons of other characters that offer further competition (which is why I'm not comfortable putting them above 40%). Definitely looking forward to seeing how it all pans out.
Want - 50% - As a Smash character, Chrom just isn't that exciting IMO, and I would be quite disappointed if he made it in over Lucina. Still, would be great to see an Awakening rep regardless.

Toad Prediction - 33.3%
Another weird one. Feels like there will be those who think he's a shoo-in due to recent playability and the long history with the franchise, while others will see low chances due to Peach and little moveset potential. End of the day, I doubt he stacks up with Bowser Jr., but maybe he'll end up around Paper Mario.

Nominations
Toon Zelda/Tetra x5

 

[TheMasonOrder]

Aghhra!!! SEND SOULS TO CHROM!

Likelihood: 100% - We got an Awakening Stage, so if we're are not getting Chrom, it's Lucina. Or Tharja! 8D

Want: 100%

Toad: 11%

Nominations:
Eirika 3x
Tharja 2x

 

[TumblrFamous]

No more GameFaqs? Umm, okay. So, onto Chrom.

Prediction: 70%
I see him pretty darn likely. To be honest, I feel he has the bet shot. The only thing that gets in his way is other FE chracyers, but that shouldn't be a problem. He's got a damn good chance.

Want: 45%
In all honesty, I don't care THAT much about Fire Emblem. I like Roy and Lucina the most, but they have to vie for a spot with Chrom. He's someone I really don't care on seeing.

Toad: 39.78%
He has stiff competition with the likes of Bowser Jr. And Paper Mario, but he is the most prominent out of the three, so he has a good chance. Its just tough with so many Mario reps with no clear Guy on top, but I think Toad is the least likely of the three. People just wont find him thy likely.

For my nominations:
Toon Zelda/ Tetra x5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Chrom

Likelihood: 85% - He's just the most likely FE rep. He beats Lyn, Anna, and maybe even Roy for a spot as a third FE rep.

Want: 60% - He's cool and all, but he just looks way too much like Marth and Ike (blue-haired swordsman)

Toad Prediction: 36%

Nominations:
Dillon x3
Zoroark x2

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Seems I forget to actually vote yesterday... I think. Whateves.

Chrom Likelihood: 85% He has some competition from Roy, but I'd argue maybe not that much. FE series and Pokemon are the two were relevance and popularity count most (that is to say they actually count) because there are so many possible reps. As such Roy just doesn't seem as likely as Chrom. Chrom is pretty much the obvious pick. Sure Sakurai doesn't necessarily like being obvious but he isn't going to avoid it if their is a good reason the obvious pick is obvious.

Chrom want: 60% I'm not a huge FE fan, but they seem to have a neat cast. Despite being yet another sword weilder, Chrom is probably my most wanted FE rep, because he seems like best choice of those who stand a chance. A spell caster would be awesome but a nonlord doesn't stand much of a chance.

Toad: 30% Some people are going to be overly optimistic about this one.

Nominations:
Geno x5.

 

[Starbound]

Chrom: 40%

If he goes to IS for a Fire Emblem character, I really do think they'll pick Lucina as the FE13 character of choice due to every FE13 merchandise having her on the cover (game box, figurine, art book and OST).

If he doesn't go to IS, Roy will be the third FE character.

Want: 0%
Every time I play awakening he gets laid and then i never use him again

 

[PK_Wonder]

Chrom is probably the single most likely newcomer. 93%

He's the most important character from the most successful game in his series.

Saki Amamiya x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Chrom, krom, kuromu...

Chances: 60%
Not too sure of his chances, really. He's far from inevitable but he's decently popular.

Want: 20%
Meh.

Toad prediction: 56%
Kind of torn here...

Nominations: Toon Zelda/Tetra x 5