Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

I think people are confusing likeliness with personal want.

Takamaru

Likeliness: 80%
Takamaru is easily the most expected Retro character. He has been requested since before Brawl, does well on polls, and has flares of relavancy every now and then. That includes as a minor character in Captain Rainbow, a muramasa-jo-based NintendoLand attraction, and Samurai Warriors 3 as a guest character. In addition, his game and Zelda are considered a pair while Metroid and Kid Icarus the other pair. The game has a lot of potential to be rebooted. I consider him very likely considering his new found game. As well, he doesn't only use katanas but uses ninja stars, magic scrolls, and talisman. He does have competition from other popular Retros but he continually beats them on polls.

Edit: I consider Little Mac a rebooted retro rep therefore doesn't fall into the same category as Takamaru. Takamaru's situation is fairly similar to Pit's prior to Brawl in that Pit was fairly likely but havent had a reboot.

Want: 43%
I'd prefer Mach Rider or Sheriff has the Retro rep over Takamaru personally. Still, if welcome him in happily if he has a unique move set and isn't a generic sword fighter.

Lucario
Prediction: 56.8%

Nomz: Nightmare x3
Dark Samus x2

 

[Robert of Normandy]

Takamaru
Likelihood: 60%
THE most likely retro character IMO(no, Little Mac doesn't count as retro anymore). He has two semi-recent appearances(Captain Rainbow, Samurai Warrios 3), a recent reference in Nintendo Land, Sakurai has expressed interest in him in the past, and we have a possible international release of his game coming up soon, so yeah he has a lot going for him. Still, there's nothing to suggest that we have to get a retro character, and now that we know that Sakurai can change his mind on stuff he's said in the past, it's possible Sakurai may go back and consider some of the retros he looked at for Melee.
Want: 90%
Samurai are freaking awesome. No, I don't care that he's "another sword character" or whatever, he just seems like he'd be a lot of fun.

Prediction for Lucario: 55.5%

Nominations:
Bandana Dee x4
Lyn x1

 

[Chauzu]

Takamaru

Likelihood: 60%

Yeah, my gut again, and it ends up here. Retro. Recently got a few cameo appearances. Samurai. But also another sword user, and his original game never even got outside of Japan. I feel he is the most likely retro rep after Little Mac, and it really could happen. A lot of sword users from series with no previous reps want in though; it's by no way a done deal.

Want: 100%

My #1 want. Give me.

Lucario

Prediction: 66%

Nominations

Scrooge McDuck x2
Phoenix Wright
Marina
Geno

 

[Shorts]

Takamaru: 56%

Want: 35% Not my cup of tea, but could be interesting

Lucario: 59%

Tharja x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Takamaru - 75%

nominate Saki Amamiya x5

 

[wildvine47]

man I am so glad we've moved on from Fire Emblem reps for a while thank god

Aaaaanyhow

Likelihood: 71% - I feel like Takamaru's not quite a shoe-in for the game on the level of Little Mac and King K. Rool, but he's definitely pretty close behind them. He's had three high class appearances as of late, he's got Sakurai's semi-seal of approval, granted he received something new, which he has, and he's possibly going to finally get an international release via VC. There's definitely a chance for other retro newcomers, and with Balloon Fighter seemingly incorporated into Villager's moveset, Takamaru is the breakaway winner in that competition thus far, unless Nintendo suddenly decides that it's time for a million Urban Champion cameos.

Want: 80% - The retro I personally am rooting for is Sukapon, but I realize he's far less likely than Takamaru atm, who I still am looking forward to in his own right. Electrical powers and shurikens and fire magic sounds great to me yes pls.

Lucario prediction - 64% (L is real OMG) I feel like Lucario's almost definitely coming back one way or another, but he's hit harder than anyone else (barring maybe K. Rool and Roy) with the relevancy bullcrap, so he's gonna have his doubters.

Nominations
Medusa x3
Samurai Goroh x2

 

[colder_than_ice]

Takamaru

Chance: 76% - He's the most likely retro character by far.
Want: 68% - I'm not a big fan. I mostly only want him for the Nazo no Murasame Jo stage.

Lucario prediction: 74%

Nominations: Chrom x5.

 

[Ephecus]

Takamaru

Chance: 60 %
As others said, he is one of the more likely retro characters in case Little Mac isn't considered as one.

Want: 40 %
I don't know much about him, but his moveset seems interesting enough. Not one of my favorite possible additions, but not one of the worst either.

Lucario: 59 %

Nominations:
5x Jigglypuff

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Takamaru - 75%
Want - 85%
+ A retro rep has been confirmed
+ Has had a resurgence recently due to Samurai Warriors, Nintendo Land, and possible localization of original game hints
+ Last member of the Famicom 4
+ Has been recognized by Sakurai in the past
- Is somewhat obscure and is Japanese only to an extent
- Only mildly popular

Either my Google-Fu is even worse than I feared, or Google has no idea who these "Famicon 4" are. All I keep getting is that device that would let you play with up to 4 players.

 

[Sid-cada]

Either my Google-Fu is even worse than I feared, or Google has no idea who these "Famicon 4" are. All I keep getting is that device that would let you play with up to 4 players.

The "Famicom 4" were some of the 4 most popular/wanted games for the Famicom Disk System, AKA the NES, all released in the same year. The other games that were a part of this were Metroid, The Legend of Zelda, and Kid Icarus.

 

[Gam3rALO]

Takamaru
75%
He is a very popular retro character. With his recent appearance in Nintendo land, I can bet Sakurai is considering him. I believe each of the mini games' franchises are going to get represented. DK will get new rep: K K Rool or Dixie. Animal Crossing already got villager. Metroid will get Ridley. Mario will get Toad or Bowser jr. Etc etc. I'm probably wrong though... it's just my guess. He would be a nice representative of his games.

Want: 88%
Takamaru is on my top 10 newcomers list. I would love it if his projectiles are ninja stars. PLUS HE IS A SAMURAI!!!
Prediction for Lucario: 58.24%

Nominations
Chrom x5

 

[XenothiumX]

Takamaru likelihood: 30%

Takamaru want: 50% (indifferent)

Lucario prediction: 32%

Nominations
Sandbag x5

 

[BlitznBurst]

Takamaru likeliness: 50%. He's fairly notable, and certainly has his base, but isn't really large enough to get in before lots of other characters. He has an okay chance of getting in, but not incredibly likely.
Takamaru want: 0%. I'm really just indifferent to him tbh. I don't care at all whether he gets in or not.

Lucario prediction: 60%. Has a large enough fanbase, but there's lost of people afraid he'll be cut, as well as the stupid ***** claiming he's a Mewtwo clone.

 

[AfricanSanta]

Takamaru likelihood- 75%- Nintendo clearly has an interest in bringing his series back, Kid Icarus style. Putting his Minigame in Nintendo Land has to count for something, considering there's a lot of other franchises that are more deserving of a minigame than it. Some could argue he shouldn't get in because his game was Japan exclusive, but that never stopped Lucas, Marth, or Roy.

Takamaru want- 70%- He could make an interesting character.

Lucario Prediction- 62%

Nominations-
Dillon x5

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Takamaru want: 0%. I'm really just indifferent to him tbh. I don't care at all whether he gets in or not.

Maybe I've been doing it wrong, but shouldn't 50% be indifference? Otherwise what do you give a character you really hate? -100%?

 

[Groose]

Takamaru Chances: 40% I do think you are overestimating him. He is one of the major retro characters, but there are others. Even so, he does have a leg up in that he appeared recently.

Takamaru Want: 65% I'm sure this would be higher if I've ever played a game he appeared in. As is, though, I don't even own Nintendoland (yet) much less his original game. However, I do see moveset potential and roster diversification, so I'd definitely be game.

Lucario Prediction: 63.5% Well, Gamefaqs is going to play the relevancy card and Smashboards is going to play the "all are coming back" card.

Nominate Tingle x5

 

[Groose]

DAY OVER​

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RETURN OF GROOSE ​

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​

 

[Groose]

Possible. That’s the word that best describes Takamaru according to your ratings. He clocked in at 56.68% overall chance (59.54% Smashboards, 49.12% Gamefaqs). You think he will be in the game, but only barely; his inclusion is possible, but not overly likely. Additionally, you would give him a shot and it’s possible you’d like him, but he isn’t your most wanted character; he clocked in at a decent 48.39% overall want (52.82%Smashboards, 34.14% Gamefaqs). All in all, it was quite an average day for Takamaru.

But now we must press on to meet an old friend. He is Lucario, and he is anxious to get back in the fight. But will he be able to, or is his turn in the spotlight over? Please leave your odds and want on Lucario.


Finally, feel free to predict how people will rate the Ice Climbers, tomorrow’s candidate of choice. Doing so can earn you extra nominations. Today’s winners are Paulkagebein and Pholicious. Pholicious wins 5 extra nominations, but Paulkagebein wins a whopping 10 because he is the first player to PERFECTLY guess the percentage, even down to the hundredths of a percent. Kudos, mate!

Gamefaqs!

 

[BluePikmin11]

Lucario Chance: 33% It's either Lucario and/or Zoroark and/or Mewtwo
Lucario Want: 20% Was never interesting as a character really.

Ice Climbers Prediction: 76.5% People will doubt because they are "hard to implement"
Nominations
x4 Anna
x1 Tom Nook

 

[Starbound]

Lucario: 50%
If there's any cuts, I think he's the first to go. But that assumes that there are cuts to begin with.

Want: 20%
Overrated as heck imo

Predicting 84% for Ice Climbers.

Nomz: Jiggs x5

 

[Arcanir]

Chances-75% At this point, I think the only thing stopping him is being potentially low priority and getting cut because of it. However, he's still popular, managed to be relevant outside of his generation and to be fair Pokémon can afford to have 5 slots dedicated to it. I think if conditions allow it, he'll remain it but I'll concede that if the opposite happens he may be one of the few to get the boot.

Want-100% I'd hate for him to leave, I just want his mechanic to be refined.

 

[MargnetMan23]

Lucario Lucario... OK Chances: 41% Sakurai said there will be cuts, this is unfortunate because honestly pretty much every character in brawl earned their spot for the next smash. But this does put Lucario on the chopping block for being a flavor of the month type character and thus is not as relevant now putting him into a similar situation as mewtwo this round. So in conclusion since there will be cuts Lucario is one of the most vulnerable
Want: 50% I think Lucario is overrated as a pokemon but he was fun to play as in smash. But if cutting him means Mewtwo getting in then f*** him XD
Ice Climbers prediction 93% I personally think they're almost guaranteed but ehhh some naysayers might lower the score
Nomz: Waddle Dee x2
Jigglypuff
Mr. Game and Watch x2

 

[jaytalks]

Lucario: 40%. He would be my first cut. He comes from a generational series that will have had two generations been released before Smash 4 comes out. Nothing against the character, but I think he is the most likely. I don't think his popularity will be enough to keep him.
Want: 25% Bring a new generation 5 or 6 rep! He doesn't necessarily need to be cut for that but I would prefer those before lucario.

Ice Climber predictions: 81.35%
Nominations: Waluigi x5.

 

[Ephecus]

Lucario

Chance: 90 % I think it is likely that almost all of the Brawl Cast will return (bar Wolf and TL maybe). Lucario brought new mechanics and his aura-system was pretty unique.

Want: 85 % Lucario may not be my main, but I actually enjoy playing with/against him.

Ice Climbers: 88 %. I can't imagine them leaving.

Nominations:

5x Jigglypuff

 

[Groose]

This is a public-service announcement from your friendly neighborhood Groose:

Over the next week or two, I have a number of real life commitments and my service on this thread may suffer as a result. For example, I am positive that I will not be able to end the current day for at least another 40 hours. Delays and interruptions like this may happen fairly often over the next week or two.

I will continue to administrate the game to the best of my ability. If you are concerned with my spotty coverage, I will GLADLY pass on the reigns to new management. Buyer beware, however: running this game is difficult and consumes at least an hour per day; you will also need to create a Gamefaqs acount. I will continue to work with you as either manager or a coach to a new manager. If you are interested, please shoot me a PM.


I apologize for the inconvenience.

 

[Opossum]

Lucario time!

Likelihood: 91%

I don't think we'll be seeing any Brawl cuts, but if there were more than three, Lucario would be the fourth (after the 3rd parties and Toon Link).

Want: 100%

I don't want cuts.

Predicting an 84% for the Ice Climbers because Gamefaqs.

Nominating Chrom x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 20%
Want: 10%

Ice Climbers: 89%

Karate Joe (Rhythm Heaven) x5

 

[Swift Fox]

Lucario

Likelihood: 96% There's no reason to cut him in favor of another Pokemon from another gens or Mewtwo (Mewtwo was never replaced by him), but only when he's in low prority and when time constraints occurs. And then that isn't likely to happen, because Sakurai knew fans will feel hurt when someone got cut, and will do his best to not do it again. (he never made a promise for that but he told "no" to certain question so fans will brace for cuts than to unexpect it)

Want: 100% I think he's very good Smash fighter of the Pokemon series... He's like Mario-esque Pokemon. Can't imagine him leaving the Smash

 

[MargnetMan23]

Lucario time!

Likelihood: 91%

I don't think we'll be seeing any Brawl cuts, but if there were more than three, Lucario would be the fourth (after the 3rd parties and Toon Link).

Want: 100%

I don't want cuts.

Predicting an 84% for the Ice Climbers because Gamefaqs.

Nominating Chrom x5

I do not understand why people think Sonic is likely to go due to his 3rd party status given nintendo and SEGA's current relationship I think they'll more then likely will have an easier time adding sonic in this time around.

 

[Xenigma]

I'm pretty sure 56% is a lot better than "not overly likely". Still don't really understand what everyone sees in Takamaru, but I guess I'm the minority. Next character!

Lucario - 75%
My philosophy with Lucario is simple: he's still popular, he's still used to promote new Pokemon games (see X/Y E3 trailer), he has a unique moveset, and Sakurai himself has said there have been no cuts as of yet. Simply put, he should make the cut for another Smash. Is he still in some danger? Sure, considering he's the least important of the Pokemon reps and thus the most expendable should push come to shove (I'm counting Jigglypuff as more important since she's original 12). I think it's far more likely though that he makes the cut along with Mewtwo being re-added and no new Pokemon rep, taking us to a perfectly reasonable 5 characters (7 if we count PT as 3) for one of Nintendo's biggest franchises.
Want - 90% - I'm a big fan of his playstyle and of the Pokemon in general, so I'd be very happy to see him return.

Ice Climbers Prediction - 85%
Even with the comment on characters like them being a technical challenge, it seems bizarre that people are worried about their chances. I mean, they were used in the very first Melee trailer! Maybe they take a hit due to that one quote, but their rating should be very, very high.

Nominations
Toon Zelda/Tetra x5

 

[Opossum]

I do not understand why people think Sonic is likely to go due to his 3rd party status given nintendo and SEGA's current relationship I think they'll more then likely will have an easier time adding sonic in this time around.

I'm saying, basically, that a third party would be harder to add than a first or second party character, due to the legalities involved, so a Nintendo-owned character would likely get priority.

 

[MargnetMan23]

I'm saying, basically, that a third party would be harder to add than a first or second party character, due to the legalities involved, so a Nintendo-owned character would likely get priority.

Priority and ease of adding are separate things Jigglypuff can be seen as relatively easy to program but she was one of the last characters added >.>

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Lucario

Likelihood: 80% - There may be 2 new Generations in between Lucario and SSB4 but I still think Lucario is one of thw most iconic and important Pokémon of the whole franchise. The only way I see him out is if he is replaced by either Zoroark or Mewtwo, what I don't see happening.

Want: 100% - One foi my favorite characters to play as. I would be really disappointed to see him gone

Ice Climbers Prediction: 86,4%

Nominations:
Zoroark x5

 

[TumblrFamous]

No problem Groose! If you have other commitments, they come first!

Lucario: 80%
I would say he has a good chance of returning. But there are still other slota for Pokemon to fill. Its possible he's just the flavor of the month, but he's still really popular. Only time will tell.

Want: 85%
I don't want any cuts, but if I have to, I say he would need to go for new players. But I use him pretty often, I would want him in.

Predicting a 90% for Ice Climbers.

Jigglypuff x5 (lets get rid of all the veterans!)

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Lucario:65%
Want:95%
ICs:91%
Nominate
Yarne x 5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Lucario: 29%
Want: 37%

Ice Climbers prediction: 79.12%

x5 Waddle dee

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Lucario
Likelihood: 60% I'm not really too sure about this one, but I think he may have a decent chance of reappearing.
Want: 75% I'd like to see him return, but I wouldn't be too disappointed if he didn't return.

Ice Climbers: 90% As long as they can be implemented, I don't see why they wouldn't stay.

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Lucario

Chance - 90% - I at least expect Sakurai to plain for Lucario's return. Unless the Pokémon Company actualy demands that Lucario be cut for someone else, the only reson would be time constrainsts forcing cuts. He's still being promoted as another mascot of sorts. I'm also not sure that Awakened Mewtwo will count as a new generation rep., so that would leave Lucario as the only non-generation I representative.

Want - 100% - I'll never understand why anyone wants cuts now. Just because you or I don't care for someone doesn't mean someone else does.


Ice Climbers Prediction - 78% - FAQS will again bring down yet another charater that should be higher. *Sigh*

Nominations -
Ike X5

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Lucario

likely hood 40%

well lucario is likely to be part of the excluded characters because everyones guessing him to be kick and that mewtwo and his newform is likely to replace him

want 70%
I still like his range attacks but unnerve the double team it needs a longer duration before a failed counter

Noinations
Genesect 5x
ROB 5x
ice climber 5x
Sonic 5x

 

[BluePikmin11]

Yarne x 5