Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Glaciacott]

Chrom and Lucina
Chance - 12%
I actually see this as an interesting solution to Fire Emblem reps. Awakening was truly a savior for the series, and it made all kinds of money, I cannot imagine a scenario in which it doesn't get a rep. Now, sadly, chrom is another blue haired lord and Lucina is pretty much female Marth ... so that kind of detracts from the appeal of each one individually, particularly given Sakurai's criteria.
However, if you bring in this tag team concept, which is actually from the Fire Emblem game, then now we have something interesting and unique on our hands. If Sakurai had the idea I think he'd at the least try to implement it.
Regarding 3DS capabilities, I'm sure work was done on the Ice Climbers early on to test just how much stuff they can have going on in the screen at any one point in time. This means that there might be open mindedness towards the idea of new tag team characters. So yea, I think this has some shred of possiblity.

Want - 80%
I don't like the idea of chrom or lucina on their own, but together the idea becomes much much more appealing. Not to the same level that Robin is appealing to me, but close.

Prediction
Anna - um .... 9.83%
I think per the norm we'll have a lot of low ratings from people going "who?" and a lot of people will perceive FE as too full of possible contenders. Likewise, Anna fans will probably over-inflate her chances.

Nominations
x5 Rhythm Monkey

 

[PK_Wonder]

Chrom & Lucina. This is a great idea, and between Chrom, Lucina, and Chrom and Lucina, I'd say there's about a 95% of one of those having a slot. I'll give this particular idea 30% of that chance.

predict Anna 14%

nominate: "X" protagonist (Monolift Soft's "X") x10

I don't really like the idea of nominating concepts, but it's a group decision. If it happens, it should have a completely separate ranking list. If you want to give extra longevity to the game and try to extend it as close to the game's release date as possible, maybe, starting in like two weeks, make character revotes take up their own day?

 

[Yams]

Chrom and Lucina
Likelihood: 7.34% If Ice Climbers are proving to be a challenge to implement, there's no way they'd go the extra mile and add two tag-team characters.
Want: 0% Seems boring.

Anaa: 6.83%

Sukapon x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Enough of this fallacious argument that the ice climbers trouble deconfirms this idea. It's entirely possible that solving the ice climbers problem, which most people here seem to take for granted as happening or having happened, makes the addition of other teams of characters a non-issue.

 

[Zhadgon]

Chrom and Lucina
Likelihood: 25% of happening for the simple reason that Sakurai has been working on this concept since Melee, maybe this time finally he can implement such idea with a highly and successful series like Fire Emblem, it will be like people say "One shot, two ducks".

Want: 80% the Fire Emblem Reps have been always fun to play for me, they have a really great moveset and if you sum the idea of another tag team like Ice Climbers, I think I will not be able to contend my happiness. Marth + Ice Climbers = F...k Yeah!

Anna
Prediction: 15% it seems fun and can have a great moveset.

Nomination:
Donbe and Hikari x 5

.n_n.

 

[Forde]

Chrom and Lucina
Chances: 10% I love both characters separately, but I really can't see them being a tag team.

Want: 15% I would much rather see one of them be a single character rather than both of them be on a tag team. Simple as that. I do really want a new FE rep, and Roy to return, though.

Anna Prediction: 10%

Nominations:
Ephraim x5

 

[jaytalks]

Chrom and Lucina
Likelihood: 40%
Ice Climber problems on the 3DS. Let's look at the context of the source in question. "Sakurai did tell me that “multiple character” combatants like the Ice Climbers were proving a technical challenge on the 3DS." Notice how he said multiple character combatants. Meaning that there is a possibility for other characters of this nature, or he could be talking about transformation characters (highly doubtful in my opinion). Not to mention, Ice Climbers are under no threat of cut, meaning that either the mechanic will be taken out (highly unlikely) or that they know that this mechanic will be in the final version.
Sakurai loves to include elements from the games of the character in question. The pair up mechanic is one of the essential features of Fire Emblem Awakening. In the past two games, Sakurai has introduced at least one unique character option in terms of not being a single attackers (Zelda/Sheik and the Ice Climbers in Melee, and Pokemon Trainer in Brawl).
I would say the pair up option (either Chrom and Lucina or Chrom and Robin) might actually be more likely than Robin and Lucina as individual characters. It would get around just including FE13's main character and yet still be more unique, contributing to balance. Chrom and Robin is more likely do to Awakening's story and how the pair up mechanic is presented in the game, but Chrom and Lucina still has a good shot. If IS for some reason does not want Robin, Lucina would be the next best option.
Want: 100%
As long it's a switchable characters (similar to transformation characters), this gets a 100% to me. In some ways, I prefer a pair up character so long as it presents in game mechanics. This would probably be my main in the game.
Anna Prediction: 1.33%
Nominations:
Ephraim x 4
Phoenix Wright x 1

 

[YoshiandToad]

Chrom and Lucina
Chance: 5%
As important as the team up aspect is in Fire Emblem Awakening, the fact the Ice Climbers have been causing trouble enough for Sakurai should show this is unlikely to occur. They are both important to their game however, so they get a small percentage for chance.

Want: 0%
I don't really find either character in the game particularly gripping, finding pretty much every other character far more interesting than this father-daughter team. Lucina in particular is a big sack of dull. I know they're the main characters but I'd rather have Chrom solo than with Lucina, and I'd prefer Robin to him, and I'd prefer Roy, seeing as he'd be a returning veteran, to both. Really really really do not want three characters using the same damn legendary sword and I'm iffy about even having two characters using the same one of a kind weapon. It'd be like if Pokemon Trainer suddenly got Mewtwo in his team and Mewtwo appeared as a playable character at the same time. Just weird.

Anna prediction: 7.3%
People want Roy and Chrom more. Anna's not a bad choice, she's just overshadowed by lords with swords.

Nominations:
Syrup X 3
Mallow X 2

 

[Ephecus]

C&L Tag Team

Chance: 1 %
Sounds a bit too gimmicky. Basically they would be a combination of Marth and Ice Climbers.

Want: 10 %
I'd rather have one of them as a stand alone rep.

Anna Prediction: 15.5 %

Nominations:
5x C. Syrup

Edit: I don't mind the rating of concepts (5 Zelda-Slots, 2 FE-Newcomer, etc.), they have potential for discussion which this thread should also be about. However I suggest that we shouldn't allow too alien concepts (9 Mario reps, 3 F-Zero Newcomer, etc.) to be on the list.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Note 2: How would you guys like to start rating general concepts in addition to characters? Stuff like "Mario Newcomer" or "Three Fire Emblem Slots?" Someone suggested this before the DDoS. It may be fun to see higher percentages again... but is it worth it?

Make this happen Groose; any additional things to rate are a good idea. I don't know how many topics we can get out of it however, so maybe not every single day?

Should we recommend some ideas or have you a list for now?

 

[MargnetMan23]

Chrom+Lucina: 3% it's not a bad idea guys, but I have no evidence whatsoever that this isn't just some concept you pulled out of your asses
Want: 40% well it would certainly make them more interesting
Anna: 11%

Omastar x3
Bulborb x2

 

[NickerBocker]

Chrom + Lucina

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Anna: 12.3%

Nominations:
Wolf x5

 

[Erimir]

I like the idea of rating more generic things, like "new Mario character" or number of Mario series slots.

For one, it means we have some things that have an obvious relationship with each other. If people think Bowser Jr is 50% likely, Toad 10%, Paper Mario 10%, etc. but people think Mario is only 50% likely to get a newcomer slot at all, we see that there's some inconsistency.

For another, it gives us more predictions to compare to the results. Most of our specific character predictions are going to do poorly (we're predicting too many characters overall, mostly by overrating low probability characters) but it would be interesting if we were more accurate at the big picture.

Once we have all the info, I might calculate our Brier score. If I get some extra time, I might calculate it for the Brawl iteration of the Rate Their Chances game. Then we can compare it to some baselines like Smash64Roster, MeleeRoster, etc. (i.e. predicting that the roster would be the same as the previous games), guessing at in some random way or at least random for newcomers, etc.

I'd be interested in any ideas people have for baselines to use, btw. Franchise sales and Google hits could be used somehow, for example.

Chrom and Lucina

I guess this would please both sets of fans, but if not done well, maybe not. Also I personally would be annoyed if Lucina got treated like Nana (i.e. Chrom was the leader of the tag team, and the female has to be the follower).

But the Ice Climbers are probably the problem on the 3DS, so I don't think they'd willingly add to this problem especially when it's not essential to the characters. Diddy and Dixie arguably make a better team up, and they're not going to be a team either.

Also, there's not really any reason to suspect that this would happen.

Chrom+Lucina team chances: 1%

Chrom+Lucina want: 35%
More than either individually, but I still don't care about FE.

Anna: 5%

Nominations:
Wolf x1
Sheik x1
Dr Mario x1
Pichu x1
Young Link x1

 

[DarkKry4]

Chrom and Lucina

Chance - 1%
I don't think they would be a team. But you know never know, hence the 1 percent

Want: 0%
not a fan of Fire Emblem or sword wielding characters.

Anna prediction: 5%

x5 Pauline (Donkey Kong)

 

[Arcanir]

Chrom and Lucina

Chances-25% Would be a good way to represent the new Pair up mechanic that Awakening brought in and would add in two characters that fans have been wanting, but I'm skeptical that they'll go this route for these characters.

Want-55% Would be interesting.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

I just looked at the ratings, and honestly most of the lower ones seem inflated to me. We might just be rating too high imo.

edit: I'll say this. If Anna gets over a 20%, these scores are inflated/extremely biased imo

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Chrom and Lucina Team

Chance: 18% - It is possible I suppose. Sakurai did have an idea like that once for Diddy and Dixie so he could probably use this as an opportunity to use that style.

Want: 50% - Indifference.

Anna Prediction: 9% - I hear she's a recurring character in Fire Emblem.

Nominations:
Victini x5

 

[Groose]

Chromcina Chance: 5%
It's a pretty good thought, but have the developers thought of it? Do they think it will be worth the difficulties it will cause? Are these the two characters they chose?

Chromcina Want: 50%
I'm not a big FE fan... not liking how everyone expects that it will expand in this game. Chromcina team would be an interesting character, though, so I'm neutral on this one.

Anna Prediction: 7.53%
Well... who can tell? I just generated a number between 0 and 20 on a RNG program... and this popped up... so why not?

Phoenix Wright x5
Think outside the box, guys.

Day Over​

​

Return of Groose​

 

[BluePikmin11]

Plz Tom Nook..
Edit: Way to ruin it Ephraim..

 

[Groose]

Chrom & Lucina (Fire Emblem)
9.23% chance
31.56% want

In comparison, ccheck these three numbers:
5. Chrom (Fire Emblem): 69.65% chance, 57.27% want
21. Lucina(Fire Emblem): 22.56% chance, 43.4% want
30. Robin (Fire Emblem): 15.10% chance, 38.90% want

So, not a terrible day on the whole for the duo, but it certainly can't be called very good. They're last place in chance and want when it comes to Awakening characters.

How will they compare to everyone's favorite merchant, Anna? We have yet another Fire Emblem day today... are you ready? Please rate Anna in chance and want.

It looks like tomorrow we will rate Eph---- CAN'T LET YOU DO THAT, EPHRAIM! Wolf barrel rolled his way past Ephraim in the standings today and will be rated before that other Fire Emblem lord. Please predict how Wolf will do in tomorrow's game. Today's winner is YoshiandToad... have fun with the extra five.

IMPORTANT: "Concepts"
We will now be rating "Concepts" in addition to characters. You can suggest what you want, but keep them interesting. A few suggestions, such as "5 Mario Slots," "Zelda Newcomer," and "Two New Retros [Little Mac not included]." These "Concepts" will be rated alongside the character of the day, and will be voted on once they reach 100 nominations... in other words, they function a lot like renominating characters. This change is effective immediately... feel free to start making suggestions anc contact me with any questions.

A big shout out to Toxicroaker has to go here... major help with the music section recently. I'll use what you've given me to update it soon... currently slammed with something major and I can't spare another minute.

 

[Seraphim.]

Anna

Chance: 23% She's the only non lord character I could see ever being playable in Smash, but the competition may be too much for her in the end.

Want: 65%

Wolf: 78% Some will think he will be cut, others won't.

Mallow x5

 

[MargnetMan23]

Anna: 11% she's possible, but I doubt she would be the first person Sakurai would look to if he wanted a new FE:A rep.
Want: 70% Not as good as Robin =P (Robin deserves a higher chance then Lucina >.>)
Wolf Prediction: 92.4% Well some of us don't expect cuts. Some of us don't see Wolf getting cut even if there are cuts. Personally if there was a large amount of cuts from Brawl's roster Wolf would sadly be one of the first to go but I just don't see it.
Nomz:
x3 Omastar
x1 Bulborb
x1 Robin (I can renom him right? =P)

 

[Smasher 101]

Anna's chances: 10% - The most likely non-lord.
Want: 50% - Indifferent.

Wolf prediction: 84.8%

Andy x4
Lucario x1 (And with that he reaches 100)

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Anna - 12%
in all honesty I have no idea what to rate Anna at
Want - 50%
I'm indifferent
Wolf - 90.5%

in all honesty I think most people believe he will stay

 

[Toxicroaker]

Anna: 6%
Want: 25% I personally would prefer Robin or Chrom.

Wolf: 96.27%

x5 Chancellor Cole (tomorrow I only have to do four and the proceeding days only three yay :D)

 

[Deleted member]

Anna
Chance: 24%
She is one of the most re-occuring characters in Fire Emblem and I believe Awakening has helped her for moveset potential. However, I do find the re-occuring part to be her saving grace as I think she's popular but I am unsure as to her demand. She has some trouble with competition from characters like Chrom and Roy, so I doubt she would get priority or attention over them.
Want: 0%
Meh... I think what I said yesterday is a good enough explanation.
Wolf Prediction: 83.73%
He may be one of the last characters that was added to Brawl, but I don't see him getting cut or replaced by another Star Fox character.
Nominations: Little Mac 3x, Captain Rainbow 2x

So, not a terrible day on the whole for the duo, but it certainly can't be called very good. They're last place in chance and want when it comes to Awakening characters.

What about Owain?

 

[MargnetMan23]

*sigh* I kind of want to rant that Robin is the most likely non-lord now >.>

Do the concept nominations cut into your regular nominations? Either way I think "no cuts from the brawl roster" would be a good thing to rate if you don't have that already =P

 

[Toxicroaker]

Some ideas for concepts :D
Another tag team character
Another third party getting in
A Thin Purple Dragon That is to Big Getting in

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Anna: 5% Expecting a high score from certain people because BIAS
Want: 0%
Wolf: 75%
Nominate:
Yarne x 4
Ridley x 1

 

[FalKoopa]

Anna
Likelihood: 10%
The only non-lord who actually has a chance, and she got an important boost by being a playable character in Awakening. Still, I see her to be less likely than Chrom and Roy.

Want: 100%
Look at my sig.

Wolf prediction: 78%
I believe Toon Link's reveal has made many people significantly more confident of the possibility of no cuts

Mustard of Doom x 5

 

[SchAlternate]

The girl with the pinky
Likelihood: 20% - A third Fire Emblem rep is quite likely (be it a newcomer or Roy), and Anna holds the honor of being the most likely non-lord rep, as well as the only character that has appeared in more than five games. Mix that with the fact that she's a merchant, and you get a somewhat likely character with an interesting moveset potential. Though her main problem is the competition she's got: Chrom, Roy, Lyn, etc.
Want: 45% - Mostly neutral. I'd fancy a fighting merchant, but my Roy induced bias makes me lower that score.

The guy that won't let me do that
Prediction: 91.5% - Though supposedly likely to cut, Wolf certainly has a wide shot at making it in.

Also, THANK YOU WOLF! I think I couldn't survive another FE character.

Nominations
Sukapon x5
(I'll give up Zero until we get to vote on Sukapon )

 

[BlitznBurst]

Anna chances: 15%. Plausible, but unlikely.
Want: 20%.

Wolf prediction: 90%. The general consensus is that veterans aren't all that likely to be cut, even the less likely ones. Not to mention Toon Link has probably put a dent in everyone's expectations (even though hsi return is justifiable, really)

Wonder Red X5

 

[Groose]

Some ideas for concepts :D
Another tag team character
Decent suggestion.
Another third party getting in
Excellent idea. Hope some one noms it.
A Thin Purple Dragon That is to Big Getting in
NO.

I'll get to the music section... I only have five minutes now. I appreciate your help, though.

What about Owain?

Don't mention his name!

*sigh* I kind of want to rant that Robin is the most likely non-lord now >.>

Do the concept nominations cut into your regular nominations? Either way I think "no cuts from the brawl roster" would be a good thing to rate if you don't have that already =P

As of now, they share the same nominations. And "no Brawl cuts" is an EXCELLENT idea. We'll see how things work with this... It's never been done in RTC before. I'm trying to recall who suggested it to me to give them massive credz... but it was before the DDoS and I've forgotten.

 

[Starcutter]

anna: 25% if I know about her is correct, she seems a lil important. but not a lot of potential. (i think. don't crucify me plz)
want 50% indifferent.

wolf 83.7%

lucario is at 100 now. uhh now what? I KNOW!
[collapse=you better be ready for this]

I choose Phoenix wright x5
[/collapse]

 

[Deleted member]

Don't mention his name!

Oh, but I did!

I think we will have some serious Deja Vu when we inevitably rate Tharja. It's kinda funny how she has been at the top of the nominations list for quite some time now. Come to think of it... that day might get ugly.

 

[Arcanir]

Chances-10% Best chance of any non-lord, but that's not saying much.

Want-60% Would make for an interesting character, but otherwise I'm rather ambivalent.

 

[MargnetMan23]

Oh, but I did!

I think we will have some serious Deja Vu when we inevitably rate Tharja. It's kinda funny how she has been at the top of the nominations list for quite some time now. Come to think of it... that day might get ugly.

Hey, Tharja could be a GREAT CHARACTER... If it wasn't for the whole minor character that isn't really important at all to the plot thing...

 

[Deleted member]

Hey, Tharja could be a GREAT CHARACTER... If it wasn't for the whole minor character that isn't really important at all to the plot thing...

I think that day is going to get ugly for different reasons.

 

[Hank Hill]

Chance: 5%
Want: 65%

 

[Glaciacott]

Anna
Chances 7%
I think she has some chance, but it's heavily inflated by some of the people who want her in the game. She does mean something to the series, but there's no way she's as memorable or iconic as the lords.

Want 30%
I like Fire Emblem, and in that sense I wouldn't complain if she made it. That said, I'm so much more interested in Robin, and after Robin I'd prefer Chrom and/or Lucina. Anna is not very high in my FE priority list for playability.

Prediction
Wolf - 91.57%
He should be considered likely by most, but then there's that group of people who will give him a lower score thinking he'll get cut and switched with Krystal.
Oh boy, can't wait to express fury over that idea tomorrow.

Nominations
x5 Rhythm Monkey
Getting to the point where I seriously can't remember which videos I've used before and which ones I haven't used that still feature monkey.
MUST. PERSEVERE!