Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[BluePikmin11]

Shulk Chance: 75% Decreased to a 75 mainly because of the Gematsu leak being reduced to a nut now and being unreliable, but I'm still willing to believe Salromano.

Chorus Men: 85% The reason why they get a better chance than Shuulk is because they actual gameplay evidence to back them up, the Sneaky Spirit.

Gematsu Legitmacy: 72.7% I still believe the leak, I realized that this is now outdated info, however I think the remaining newcomers there will be in and the Lucas cut and DLC will still happen.

Dark Pit Prediction: 12.56% Now that clones are a thing, this should increase, by a bit.
Roy Prediction: 3.46%

 

[Makrrrrrr]

SHULK
Chance: 100%
NEW and EXPANDING franchise. An instant CLASSIC. Regarded as one, if not, the BEST ROLE-PLAYING GAME of the GENERATION. People were clamoring to play it, as evident with the Operation Rainfall. Great Japanese reception and recognition. And that's just the tip of the iceberg! Shulk is the face of the game, and it is fitting that he represent it in Smash Brothers.

With regards to the character:
Totally unique fighter, more than meets the eye. (Another sword user arguements INVALID)
Great set of skills and arts to choose from.
So much potential for an awesome moveset.

Want: 100%

---------------------------------------------

CHORUS KIDS
Chance: 50% (but the chance of a Rhythm Heaven representative is 90%)
It is such a WTF character pic, but it represents an established franchise, and a great one at that, that does not have any representation in Smash yet (except for the Sneaky Spirits which just strengthens the likelihood of an RH rep)

Want: 80% (any other Rhythm Heaven representative is good)

---------------------------------------------

GEMATSU LEGITIMACY
100% legitimate source, 80% legitimate information
Let's be real here, the leaker is or has a legitimate source!
It should be said that Gematsu has been accurate until Chrom, and maybe the Chorus Kids (could be a different set of Rhythm Heaven representatives)
It shows that it is just an OUTDATED information, or a MISINTERPRETATION at that. (Chrom is in the game still.)
BUT, it does not imply that it is the complete set of newcomers and no more hidden ones.

---------------------------------------------
Dark Pit: 100% alternate costume
Roy: 0% (too much Fire Emblem representative already)

 

[Andyjoe522]

Shulk
Chance: 99.99%
Want:100%
I would go into more detail here, but @Brawler610 summed it up better than I could ever dream of. There's nothing I could add to that.

Chorus Men
Chance: 50%
Want: 85%
I've never played a Rhythm Heaven game, but I have to say the little guys have grown on me in the time since the Gematsu Leak made them a big deal in the Smash community.

Gematsu legitimacy: 80%
As others have said, going 8/9 of his 11 characters thus far just feels too good to just be a lucky guess, especially when he nailed Wii Fit Trainer and Mii Fighters. Also, as a side note, I have to say that this is the first community I've been to that seems to have taken this leak so seriously as to think that it being legitimate would necessarily hamper the chances of any other character getting into the game. You'd think Rosalina being revealed would be enough to show that even if his information had been 100% accurate, it certainly doesn't cover the entirety of the content in the game.

 

[Rikobomo]

Shulk: 100% Chance, 100% Want
I find it incredibly hard to believe that Nintendo won't rep their newest subsidiary (who has yet to be rep'd) with a highly requested character from their most popular, critically-acclaimed game in an effort to help the series gain even more traction; it would be a wise decision from a business standpoint. Monolithsoft is also a fan favourite Nintendo dev to a lot of Nintendo fans (like me).

The Kyoto branch of Monolithsoft was also created to assist Nintendo EAD with the development of first-party software at Nintendo's new Kyoto headquarters. That should give you a very good idea to how close their relationship is with one another.

There is also a spiritual sequel in development for Wii U which is, once again, using the Xenoblade name; It's all too evident that Nintendo are making a concerted effort to push the franchise. And rightly so.

And it sounds dumb, but don't forget about the Xenoblade Streetpass puzzle.

Chorus Kids: 85% Chance, 90% Want
Rhythm Heaven is very popular in Japan so I've heard, and another notable release in the Wii generation. This series also has a Streetpass puzzle (just like Xenoblade). It's a fun, creative choice by Sakurai and one that seems a no brainer, especially if you're going about repping the Wii/DS generation.

Gematsu is real (outdated info).

 

[Xenigma]

I'll start with the one that directly affects the other two:

Gematsu Legitimacy - 100%
This week's reveals may have proven the leak to be inaccurate, but is it still a credible source? Absolutely. This is a leaker who was able to predict the likes of Wii Fit Trainer and specifically "Mii Fighters", as well as every character revealed at both E3 2013 and 2014. He's even called a Rhythm Heaven character months before a Sneaky Spirit appeared in Smash Run, and while "X/Y Pokemon" wasn't too impressive at first, finding later at E3 that a slot was specifically reserved for such a character long before settling on Greninja makes it much more notable. All together I can't rationally say that it's all a lucky guess: this absolutely comes from some sort of inside information. The real problem at this point is trying to decide why the leak still ended up wrong, because we don't know the reliability of the source, the age of the information, or where it's actually coming from. Personally, I think it's still worth considering the leak for speculation purposes: changing plans from Chrom to Robin (and making Lucina an actual character much later) is an extremely sensible development decision and it's gotten enough right otherwise that it's not worth ignoring the remaining claims altogether. Just nice to know the information isn't perfect and that anything can change.

Shulk - 75%
Of the two Gematsu characters remaining, Shulk suffers much less from the leak being wrong. He was a strong candidate long before the leak ever came around, and Monolith retweeting Smash announcements seems a telltale sign that they have some stake in the game beyond being a fellow Nintendo game. Nevertheless, he does take a hit because fellow Gematsu character Chrom ended up missing the mark for being a swordsman, and while I know Shulk is much more unique than that, who is to say the development team will agree? Not to beat a long-dead horse, but this is the exact scenario where Isaac could sneak into the roster considering his skill pool is much larger and more obvious. I'm inclined to continue believing Shulk will be in the game, but the possibility of him missing the mark seems much more likely than it did just a month ago.
Want - 50% - I remain iffy on him. No doubt he's the kind of character I'd like, but it's difficult to reconcile that with the idea that he might be in and not Isaac as I can't help but think they compete with each other for Smash representation.

Chorus Men - 25%
Gematsu proving inaccurate really hurts the Chorus Men. They still get to enjoy a much higher rating than I would otherwise give them considering how much else Gematsu has gotten right before Robin-gate, but now that we know plans can change from what was reported, it's easy to see how this particular character may miss the mark. Sakurai made it known very early on that he was having trouble with team characters, which may explain why we haven't seen the Ice Climbers and makes the idea of a trio being on the roster extremely odd. Further, unless there is a specific reason why the Chorus Men in particular should be the token Rhythm Heaven character, there's plenty of options for easier-to-implement characters from the franchise to choose from (Marshal, Karate Joe, the wrestler, etc) that could represent the games just as well. Heck, for all we know the idea of an RH character could have been dropped altogether and the Sneaky Spirit remains a relic of past development. The Chorus Men remain a notable possibility in the post-Gematsu age, but no longer can I consider them likely to be in the game.
Want - 0% - I'm not sure I want a Rhythm Heaven character at all, but if we must have one, I definitely don't want a trio.

 

[Rikobomo]

Shulk: 100% Chance, 100% Want
I find it incredibly hard to believe that Nintendo won't rep their newest subsidiary (who has yet to be rep'd) with a highly requested character from their most popular, critically-acclaimed game in an effort to help the series gain even more traction; it would be a wise decision from a business standpoint. Monolithsoft is also a fan favourite Nintendo dev to a lot of Nintendo fans (like me).

The Kyoto branch of Monolithsoft was also created to assist Nintendo EAD with the development of first-party software at Nintendo's new Kyoto headquarters. That should give you a very good idea to how close their relationship is with one another.

There is also a spiritual sequel in development for Wii U which is, once again, using the Xenoblade name; It's all too evident that Nintendo are making a concerted effort to push the franchise. And rightly so.

And it sounds dumb, but don't forget about the Xenoblade Streetpass puzzle.

Chorus Kids: 85% Chance, 90% Want
Rhythm Heaven is very popular in Japan so I've heard, and another notable release in the Wii generation. This series also has a Streetpass puzzle (just like Xenoblade). It's a fun, creative choice by Sakurai and one that seems a no brainer, especially if you're going about repping the Wii/DS generation.

Gematsu is real (outdated info).

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Shulk: 85%
Still Japan's number 1, and all that twitter business. The fact that X is not directly related to the story does hit his chances a bit though.

Want: 100%



Chorus Kids: 3%
Ice Climbers are difficult, Olimar had to be toned down, and there's Marshall standing there doing all the same things better, without the need for such complicated work-arounds.

Want: 50%
Honestly, any Rhythm Heaven character would be great, but Marshall is just a better choice.



Gematsu Leaker had some amount real inside information: 90%
Mii Fighter! That said I think his information was all E3 stuff, and the rest was made up and guess work... not out-dated, because else he'd know Robin beat out Chrom, but guess work. I don't know where he works, but I imagine he's in some obscure section of the marketing department and could see little bits of information which makes his information worth considering, but not the be all and end-all. The way I see it is he knows that they went to talk with Monolith, saw Fire Emblem Awakening stuff, and maybe saw Marshall quickly and then filled in the blanks with guesses. This would explain why he didn't know who Greninja was despite him being decided way before X and Y, and how he missed Rosalina because Galaxy stuff was a given anyway, he couldn't make those guesses, and when Rosalina was out he needed to guess to seem relevant...

Which back-fired.

 

[Glaciacott]

I got to say, it kind of bothers me a little how all the female character newcomers wound up at the bottom with the Miis. Coincidence or not.
Sigh ... Screw you guys, when the game comes out I'm raising hell with my army of bash sisters.

Shulk
Chance - 90%
Want - 100%
Um ... what brawler610 said. Now, in terms of want though, he's not my most wanted at the moment but he's way up there. Honestly, I expect him and have been looking forward to Xenoblade content.

Chorus Kids
Chance - 80%
A bit lower due to the whole Robin business, but I still feel that if they were mentioned in the leak they're probably the most likely (more on that bit later.)

Want - 100%
I cannot express in words just how much I want a Rhythm Heaven rep. I played through the DS version recently, and goddam, it's such a fun series and ... I can't wait. I. cannot. wait. In terms of want, Rhythm Heaven is up there with Ridley and K. Rool.

Gematsu Legitimacy - 75%
I'm sure for the most part the leak is still pretty legitimate, for the main reason that we know Chrom was initially considered as the obvious choice ... but ultimately dropped because he couldn't make him worked and had an easier time with Robin once the idea came up.

What this means is that someone getting the information of Chom is necessarily not horrendously off, and all things considered getting the likes of WFT, Pokemon from X and Y, and guessing Chorus Kids ... those are very wild guesses, and two of them being accurate bodes well for the legitimacy of the leak. Oh yea, and the whole naming them Mii Fighters instead of just Miis.

However, I feel we're at a point in which it is possible the rest of the information is just simply not accurate. Shulk is probably the one huge certain thing since there's just no one else from that series that would make as much sense as the Monado boy.
I see the Chorus Kids as the most likely for RH still because the idea is so off-the-wall brilliant I don't know why it would be changed. Like, Chrom I could see posing a problem of "wth do we do with this?," but a Rhythm Heaven character won't have that problem since they'd represent over 100 concepts from several different rhythm mini-games. Granted, I could see other Rhythm Heaven characters ultimately getting the spot, so I guess that could happen. But even then, the very concept of the Chorus Kids coming up is the ultimate hint that they're probably happening, or at the least that Rhythm Heaven is likely to get a rep.
The bit with ness and lucas, as well as the DLC bits ... I think now those are very likely off because they sound like the sort of discussion that could have several possible outcomes. And with the outcome of Chrom being so different, I think these bits of information are probably also likely to have wildly different outcomes to the point the leak doesn't matter now.

Want - 100%
I still think it'd be awesome, but really, that's just because currently Shulk and CK are both phenomenal options for me and both are in top ten range. So really, for me this leak being true would still be great.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Gematsu Legitimacy: 0%
Want: 20%

Shulk Likelihood: 60%
Want: 65%

Chorus Kids Likelihood: 1%
Rhythm Heaven character in general, on the other hand, would get a good 70% from me. I just think the Chorus Kids are pretty much directly attached to the Gematsu leak. No one even considered them for a second before the leak and I doubt Sakurai did either.
Want: 100%

 

[Gunla]

Seeing how this is Shulk related I'm going to assume this is allowed. If it isn't, apologies:
I want to note how we really haven't got a secondary character before the main character of a series that has more than one character.

The X protagonist (which is fully customizable, by the by, does not have a set name or real default look, and is from a game that is still a long time from release, and isn't even a technical sequel to Xenoblade) would get in AFTER Shulk under said clause. Now some may say Robin and Lucina for Fire Emblem Awakening, or Pokemon in general, however, Fire Emblem and Pokemon are very different scenarios for character selection, and I consider them null and void because they usually don't share main characters. In addition, Ness is the poster boy of Mother nearly everywhere in the world, as Earthbound Zero/Mother 1 didn't get an international release, and I consider it null here as well.

I just wanted to point this out there as a little notifier when it comes to the mysterious X Protagonist possibly having an effect on Shulk's chances and why I don't think this is the case.

 

[Rikobomo]

Shulk: 85%
Still Japan's number 1, and all that twitter business. The fact that X is not directly related to the story does hit his chances a bit though.

I couldn't disagree more with your reasoning and I believe it holds no weight; the spiritual sequel uses the Xenoblade name and that's all it needs.

 

[TTrain]

Day 279: Shulk, Chorus Kids, and Gematsu

Shulk:

Chance? 99%

Xenoblade is becoming a popular franchise (like, more than what most people think). If Sakurai added Shulk to the roster, it would:

1. Please the fans around the world and the Bronado supporters (like me, and many other people that are rating this).

2. It would add another unique fighter to the roster, and Shulk seems like a character that would fit in the Smash universe.

3. Like how Marth/Roy's inclusion to Melee helped promote Fire Emblem (and Ike in Brawl to promote Path of Radiance), Monolith Soft would benefit greatly from having Shulk in Smash because it would promote Xenoblade (not only X, but the franchise as a whole) to new people.

Want? 100%

After completing Xenoblade, my girlfriend and I said at the same time "Shulk should be in the next Smash Bros.", and from there, joined the support thread for Shulk and that's where i've been all week xD

Chorus Kids:

Chance? 80%

With a Rhythm Heaven rep being in Smash Run, I think that either they (or some other Rhythm Heaven character) should join the fray.

Want? 90%

I enjoyed the Rhythm Heaven games, and I wouldn't mind if there was a character that repped that series.

Gematsu leak? ~90%

I think it's legit, but it probably has outdated information, and that right there, is what's holding it back.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I couldn't disagree more with your reasoning and I believe it holds no weight.

You think his being Japan's most wanted newcomer (well I think so, maybe K.Rool's more popular atm?) doesn't effect him? Or that the twitter stuff doesn't help his cause?

 

[Gunla]

@ Cheezey Bites
I believe he's referring to the statement you made on Xenoblade Chronicles X. He's a Shulk supporter himself from what I know, you see, it's just the opinion on Shulk's chances on the X protagonist getting in over Shulk potentially is... rather divided, to say the least.

 

[Rikobomo]

You think his being Japan's most wanted newcomer (well I think so, maybe K.Rool's more popular atm?) doesn't effect him? Or that the twitter stuff doesn't help his cause?

Don't worry, I am a Shulk supporter! Re-read my post because I've edited it. Sorry, my post was a little unclear and blunt.

 

[Kenith]

Shulk:

Chance: 90%. Shulk is an ideal choice for a newcomer, and the poster boy for a new and growing Nintendo franchise. His Monado could bring some interesting mechanics to Smash, as would Skills (or whatever they're called) from his game. Additionally, Xenoblade's popularity is important here because it is such a big factor in why we even have it to begin with. And Shulk is highly requested for Smash. Leak or not he is a sure bet.

Want: 70%. His game looks fun, and I would like to finally see Shulk succeed where Isaac did not. I haven't played Xenoblade, but from what I've heard from it and seen from X, he could add a lot to the game.

Chorus Men:

Chance: 5%. The only reason people ever considered this character is from a leak. The one part of a leak with a huge hole in it, I might add. I just don't think that these guys are substantial enough to create a moveset after. It's possible that the leak, if valid, confused these guys with Marshal, who is apparently the mascot of Rhythm Heaven. Leak or not though, much like WarioWare characters, who coincidentally are made by the same studio, the Chorus Men are too one-note to be included in a game where much more deserving newcomers are itching for a spot.

Want: 10%. I would not hate it if they were included. But I would be strongly disappointed. The Gematsu leak has made them extremely overrated. Any moveset they could have would be a stretch. And my biggest complaint is they are so incredibly bland, visually. They're so simple and uncreative designs I feel like every cartoon artist has a picture of these guys in their sketchbooks and didn't even know it.

Gematsu Leak Validity:

Chance: 40%. Frankly, this is mostly moot, as six out of nine of it's characters are in. But, for the sake of speculation, I will say this: The E3 leak is legitimate. It doesn't matter whether or not it actually is, because it pretty much came true, but I say it is real because the timing and accuracy is spot-on. The source Sal Romano had clearly had some info on E3's arrangement, maybe he worked with Nintendo's E3 presentations, I don't know. But judging from how and when the information was leaked, it seems very likely the source knew what was being shown at E3. The third part of the leak also leaked very accurate information just before E3.
However, I think the second leak is false. I always thought this, and judging from the info we've gotten so far, such as Chrom being deconfirmed and also being part of this particular leak, I think that Sal Romano is being played by his source on this one.

Want: 0%. Come on, who ever wanted this leak to come true? Everyone on it were highly expected anyway.

 

[Chandeelure]

-Shulk:
Chances: 100%
Want: 90%

-Chorus Men:
Chances: 30%
Want: 50%

-Gematsu Leak Validity:
Chances: 55%
Want: 0%

 

[PK_Wonder]

Shulk - 99% This is my score, regardless.
Want - 100%

Chorus Men - 23% I really think there is a RH rep, but I am leaning towards Marshal as the more feasible possibility.
Want - 0%

Gematsu legitimacy - Abstain. This really doesn't seem like a very lucky guess, and more like someone who had very outdated or misunderstood info. Doesn't really matter anymore though. They were wrong or outdated.

predict:
Dark Pit - 4%
Roy - 0.25%

 

[FalKoopa]

Shulk: 70%
Now that Gematsu is dead, I'll give him a score that seems more like him. I don't think he's absolutely inevitable, but he does have a strong chance, being a critically acclaimed game and getting a sequel, which means he's no longer a one-off.

Want: 60%
Hmm... I see him as deserving but I'm not particularly interested in him. I've tried Xenoblade and I see its appeal, but it's really not my cup of tea.

Chorus Men: 20%
Surprised? Yes, I have little faith in their chances, seeing how Chrom ended up. Now, before someone brings up the Sneaky Spirits in Smash Run, I'd like to say that I believe Rhythm Heaven will get a character, but it likely won't be Chorus Men.

Want: 0%
I dislike Rhythm Heaven's gameplay. Plus, unlike Karate Joe or Wrestler I also find their design very uninteresting.

Gematsu Leak Validity: 40%
I believe the had some leaker had some legitimate info, particularly around the E3's, but the rest is highly dubious.

 

[Delzethin]

Shulk
Chance:
-Main Game: 80%
-Via DLC: Abstain

The Gematsu leak is under serious scrutiny now...but I don't think it really hurts Shulk's chances that much. He's still a popular protagonist from a critically acclaimed and increasingly popular series that is on the rise. His long list of arts and extra focus on his location relative to the enemies in his home game would lend to a unique "thing" to his playstyle a la Little Mac's KO Uppercut or Robin's breakable tomes and Levin Sword, and as the latest Famitsu interview shows, Sakurai cares a lot about what new things newcomers would bring to the table.

There's still other things to take into account, even. There's still the tweet from Adam Howden saying he's been involved with a project he's not allowed to speak about, and while it could be a different character in a different game, it's still worth noting. More importantly, there's the fact that Xenoblade's director retweeted Sakurai's announcement for last Monday's character reveal, the first of said announcements he's acknowledged. Could it be that he knows Shulk is in, but doesn't know when he'll be announced?

Overall, the Heir to the Monado still has a lot going for him. Even if he doesn't make the main roster...well, I'm not sure how they'd handle DLC characters from smaller franchises. >_>

Want: 90%

With Robin confirmed (It still feels amazing to be able to say that!), Shulk is now my most wanted newcomer. I was intrigued by the idea of a Rainfall character getting into Smash for a long time, got even more interested when I read about him and all the techniques he can perform, and watching Chugga's LP and seeing him in action has really made me like him as a character. I may not have visions like he does, but if a playable Shulk is in our future, I wouldn't be the least bit disappointed.


Chorus Men
Chance:
-Main Game: 30%
-Via DLC: Abstain

Amazing what a character reveal can do to the chances of a different character that isn't even part of the same franchise. Now we're left wondering two things: whether the source knew about the Chorus Men being in, knew there was a Rhythm Heaven character at least and guessed from there, or flat out guessed the Chorus Men completely. My money's on it being one of the latter two.

We do have reason to believe a Rhythm Heaven character might be in. The Sneaky Spirit's appearance in Smash run might be because a different character from its home franchise is playable. On the other hand, it might just be a bone thrown to a franchise that didn't get a character, a la Smashville in Brawl.

We also have to consider that the Chorus Men aren't a super obvious pick for a Rhythm Heaven rep. We've seen spikes in activity from threads for Marshal, Rhythm Girl, Rhythm Wrestler, and Karate Joe, and that's just the ones I've seen. I might be off the mark on this, being an outsider to Rhythm Heaven, but the only reason the Chorus Men would have a significant edge on the other RH characters would be if the leak knew about them...and now we have no clue which parts of the leak after the E3 '13 one were legit and which were made up. For now, I don't have much faith in the trio taking center stage.

Want: Abstain

Like I've said before, I haven't played any Rhythm Heaven games, so I don't think I know enough to make this call.


Gematsu Leak Source's Legitimacy
Chance: Abstain

The dust has barely cleared, there are a ton of unanswered questions, and has Sal even heard back from his not-entirely-a-source yet? There are still other parts of the leak we have no answer for yet, so all we know the leak isn't entirely true (Sakurai said Chrom was never even considered!). We still don't know which parts were legit information, which were outdated, and which were outright guesses. I think it's too early to make this call.


Predictions
Dark Pit: 12.9%
Roy: 3.1%

Lucina's identity as a "bonus clone" could give a better chance to other characters more likely to be clones than have original movesets. These two, though?

(Can we nominate again yet?)

 

[Autumn ♫]

Shulk:75%
Definitely the forerunner for a new franchise character at this point, and his popularity, new game, and uniqueness only helps him.

Want:80%
I would definitely like to see him, but he's not my most wanted character.

Chorus Men:20%
I believe that these characters are more fit for an Assist or Background hazard than a playable character. Simple as that.

Want:20%
I'd much prefer Rhythm Wrestler and Reporter.

Gematsu Leak:50%
It definitely seems to know something, being the only thing to actually call the Mii's the Mii Fighters. However, it is clear that it is outdated, and really shouldn't be considered anymore.

 

[Deleted member]

Shulk

Chance: 70% The leak may have outdated pieces of info but I think hes still got a good chance.
Want: Abstain

Chorus Men

Chance: 15%

Want: 0% - Would rather have Karate Joe or even Marshal.

Leak legitimacy: Abstain

 

[AustarusIV]

Shulk

Chance: 70%
I'll still say that he has a legitimate chance, but he's no shoo-in. All we have are just tweets from certain members at Monolith Soft, and that could be interpreted as them simply following something they like.

Want: 50%
Never played Xenoblade, but I wouldn't mind his presence.

Chorus Kids

Chance: 30%
Yeah, they took a pretty huge blow this week. They may have been considered at one point in development if the leak is genuine, but they don't seem to be the kind of characters to guarantee mass appeal.

Want: 5%
...No thank you. I'd like to see a Rhythm Heaven stage with some music, but I'm hesitant on the idea of a playable character.

Gematsu Leak Legitimacy

Chance: 0%
We just cannot follow it anymore. Even if the Sal's tipper really does work (or did work) at Namco-Bandai, the information is horribly outdated. There's no point to following it now.

Want: 0%
At an earlier point in time, I'd dislike it because it would have meant that those were the only remaining newcomers. But now, just let it stay dead.

 

[Kikkipoptart12]

Shulk: 99%
Have a great move set potential, game did better than Nintendo's expectations, Monolith soft work on many Nintendo games including Brawl, popular in japan and fairly popular in the US, and tweets from Monolith soft about Smash.
Want: 100%
Like I said great move set potential, and Great game, totally can work in smash.

Chorus Men: 30%
the only thing I can ride of is that ghost is smash run that someone supposedly saw.
Want: 10%
I like Rhythm Heaven but the chorus Men game is one of my least favorite game in Rhythm Heaven, no move set potential I can think of and the are just Meh to me.

 

[Tikivoy]

Shulk:
Chance: 90%:

Spoiler

Want: 100% I bought Xenoblade just because of the leak. If Shulk doesn't get in, I will riot until Sal tells me who the tipper is (obviously Sakurai )

Chorus Men:
Chance: 55% It's almost all on a leak, Sneaky Spirit just means there's an RH character. However, even without that, they are the most popular characters from Rhythm Heaven DS, which is likewise the most popular in the series, despite people not thinking about them as fighters until the leak. So I'd say they have better chances then most, Marshal is really the only competition.

Want: 100% After playing Rhythm Heaven because of the leak, they are the ones I want the most. Not only are they adorable, but 3 at once? That would have made a more interesting moveset then most fighters.

Gematsu Legitimacy: 65%. His first leak is definitely true. His second leak is dead because Chrom.
Now, there are two scenario's here, since I don't think he was a lucky guesser:
1) He leaked us true, but outdated information.
2) He bulled with safe choices for the second leak and didn't know anything after the first 6.

Honestly, fear makes me lead more toward the second scenario, because he say's Shulk will be revealed yet gets that wrong. Maybe he bought into Monado Monday hype. But Sakurai also makes it seem like they planned Robin and Lucina from the very beginning. So it's questionable...but he did say Shulk is 100% in, and sounded Japanese from his emails (yes, that's important), so I'd say its more on the accurate side.

 

[Rikobomo]

More importantly, there's the fact that Xenoblade's director retweeted Sakurai's announcement for last Monday's character reveal, the first of said announcements he's acknowledged. Could it be that he knows Shulk is in, but doesn't know when he'll be announced?

This might be seem like I'm nitpicking, but Yuichiro Takeda isn't the director of the Xeno games, that's Tetsuya Takahashi. I'm confused as to what has made so many people think this...

 

[Sheddy]

well everyone else is doing it so here goes

Shulk %100

want %100

as a fellow supporter of xenoblade he has so much going for him he's a highly wanted character both in the east and west, he is from a game alot of people consider one of the best JRGP of all time, he has so many ways he could play from his arts to his visions to even tension in the game could be a factor where the more damage he does the stronger he gets and the more he's hurt the weaker his attacks gets. as already said the company retweeting all the directs and trailer announcement also give him a good chance and his voice actor said he was doing voice acting for a new game but can't say who yet giving a good chance it is shulk he is talking about. also as said we need a subfourm for our hades x shulk fanfics, our pokemon x xenoblades crossover (like my beauty Shulkle here) and for all our random gifs (we are a bunch of odd balls)

CM %50

want %20

only reason I think they have a chance is because for a spelt second in the E3 trailer of smashrun you can see one of the enemies from their game (I think they are called ghost in it) that's the only reason I see them having a chance right now

Leak %75

I do think it can still be true but with robin and lucina (I wa so happy robin got in he was my 2nd most wanted behind shulk) it does hurt it alot we will have to wait and see if Sal can explain what happen

 

[Delzethin]

This might be seem like I'm nitpicking, but Yuichiro Takeda isn't the director of the Xeno games, that's Tetsuya Takahashi. I'm confused as to what has made so many people think this...

So I'm wrong again. >_> What does Yuichiro Takeda do?

 

[JaidynReiman]

Shulk: 75%, I think he's mostlikely in, but there's really nothing hinting at him at all right now. The only way Xeno gets represented and Shulk isn't playable is if Nintendo bought the rights to Xenosaga and they use KOS-MOS instead, but the chances of that are slim-to-none.
Want: 50%, doesn't bother me.

Chrous Men: 20%, nothing at all hints at Chorus Men, and they are an incredibly obscure character from the franchise. Marshal, Karate Joe, or the Rhythm Heaven Girl are far more likely. Except Karate Joe, the likelihood is they'd all play the same anyway. (That said, I'd give 70% for the franchise being repped in general).
Want: 0%, I'd rather have the Rhythm Heaven Girl. I like her design better.

Gematsu Leak: 45%, the leak had legit info the first time around, and managed to get Mii Fighter. Everything else was guesses and he screwed up big time. Chrom was never on the roster, the chances of him getting this information incorrect is slim-to-none, its more likely he made it up.
Want: 0%, who wants the roster leaked?

 

[Petrichor]

Shulk
Likelihood: 80%. The petition for Xenoblade to be released in the West was one of the biggest petitions in gaming history (if not the biggest full stop) and he's a highly requested character in Japan as well. The retweets from his voice actor and Monolith Soft certainly help his chances. And he's a great option for a new franchise representative in Smash Bros.
Want: 50%. I acknowledge Shulk's popularity and I definitely think he'd have an interesting playstyle, but I seriously couldn't care less about him as a character. I've never played the Xenoblade games and don't plan to any time soon, as I'm not a fan of JRPGs. I don't care about the character, but I do care about what he could do for Smash.

Chorus Men
Likelihood: 50%. Chrom's deconfirmation was a nasty blow for the Chorus Men, since Gematsu was the only thing they really had going for them. They're hanging on by the skin of their teeth thanks to the Sneaky Spirit, but since we haven't seen all the enemies that exist in Smash Run yet that's hardly a conclusive argument. There could be other enemies from non-represented series in there as well. That said, Gematsu isn't dead yet, it's merely limping. I have my doubts as to the legitimacy of the second leak. But the leaker has been mostly on the money so far, so I find it hard to justify putting them any lower than 50%.
Want: 35%. I care even less about the Chorus Men than I do about Shulk. Maybe it's just the fact that I've never played Rhythm Heaven, but I don't even get why they'd have any appeal as characters. I do however concede that they could potentially have an interesting playstyle, and I don't really care who gets in at this stage. The newcomers as revealed right now are enough to keep me happy.

Gematsu
Likelihood: 75%. I think he definitely had at least some inside info. The fact that he got 6/6 of the first leak right including the Wii Fit Trainer is pretty impressive. Whether that info changed over time or he just made up the second leak completely is hard to say. The second leak pretty much hinges on the Chorus Men at this stage. If they get in I'll believe it. If someone similar to them gets in I'll accept that he's an unreliable reporter of legitimate info. If nothing like them shows up then I'm just going to take the second leak as guesses on his part. Regardless I believe that he definitely had inside info for the first leak. And it's still possible that he had inside info for the second.

 

[a Link to the Forums]

(Can we nominate again yet?)

Sorry, not yet. You can see the schedule for this week from @ Groose 's post. After we've gone through them, then we can nominate.

 

[TTrain]

So I'm wrong again. >_> What does Yuichiro Takeda do?

He's one of the writers for Xenoblade Chronicles.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenoblade_Chronicles

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Shulk: 80% Chance for reasons stated by everybody.
Want: 50%
If Monado Buster makes his Monado longer, then that's one heck of a cool gimmick.
Not particulary interested in the rest though.

Chorus Men: 60%
I think it's easier to misunderstand Marshall/Karate Joe/Monkey for Chorus Men for Gematsu leaker.
WAAAAAnt: 90%
Might wind up a bit too gimmicky if they focus on the 'triple Ice Climber'-thing more than on rhythm with all the seperating dooda.

Gematsu: 100%
Gematsu has a tipper, just a reaally bad one.

EDIT: Roy: 0.6%
Dark Pit: 2.4%

 

[Icedragonadam]

Shulk:95% He's from a new series, highly requested, and can provide a unique moveset.

Want:100% Come on Monado train!

Chorus Men: 25% It only has the Sneaky Spirit to back it up but it doesn't mean that much in my opinion.

Want:0% I want Marshal instead.

Gematsu legitmacy: 30% I believe the leaker was just someone who worked at e3 and managed to see the trailers before their releases thus explaining WFT and Mii Fighters. Every other correct prediction he made were characters everyone was expecting to show up.

 

[Eleventy]

Shulk
60% Chance - I'm thinking he's likely to be an assist trophy or just cut completely if Gematsu is outdated.
20% Want - I'd rather Isaac.

Chorus Kids
30% Chance - Marshal, Rhythm Girl or Rhythm Wrestler are more likely, I think. Chorus Kids could still be a final smash for whoever the RH rep is.
0% Want - I just don't want these guys to be in while Ice Climbers get cut. Until I see Ice Climbers confirmed, I don't want these kids confirmed.

Gematsu Legitimacy
30% Chance, 0% Want.
I just don't really care for either of these characters. There are plenty of better candidates to be included in the Smash 4 roster. As for the leak... I never believed it was all we were going to get. It's just like Sakurai to go out of his way to ruin the leak's legitimacy.

 

[NintenRob]

All: 60%

Want: 80% (But not as all the newcomers)

I would to see Parabo and Satebo, so should everyone (Most creative newcomer who not only makes sense, but hasn't been done yet)

 

[andimidna]

Gematsu:
Chance: 90%
I think that there's a 10% chance that the leaker only had e3 info and made the rest up, I'd count that as a fake leak. But the other 90 comes from the fact that nobody else speculated what he speculated, and he was right, and we were all wrong.
Want: 0%
I would love to board the "Gematsu is dead" train but I just don't believe that's true. I hate all leaks, especially this one.
I have nothing left from this leak that I need now that Shulk is a shoo-in regardless of its legitimacy, we have our FE reps, and characters like Palutena are confirmed.
So... no want from me.

Shulk
Chance: 99% (#1)
Huh. I was expecting my score to be surprisingly high but I see that everybody is pretty much rating him around here. I was ready to write a few reasons here but they've all been said. He's in.
Want: 99%
And that's great, as he sounds like an interesting character from a great series that could have a unique moveset. And if I had experienced all of this by getting the game my score would be 100, but itll have to stay at 99 for now

Chorus Kids
Chance: 90% (#3)
As likely as I believe the Gematsu leak is legitimate. Yet still no higher as even with the sneaky spirit I believe they are dependent on Gematsu.
Want: 40%
I don't really want Gematsu to be real, and whether or not they make it will pretty much be the deciding factor. They're even more wtf than wft. Wft is really the only "character" in Wii fit, which has sold much better than rh and just had A Recent release. Not that I dislike wtf characters I just thought it was interesting to point out.
Anyways, I wanted them when I thought they were 100% definite, but now that there's a possibility that they won't be Here, I have higher priorities I'd like to see first, and some pipe dream characters I'd prefer.

Pre:
Dark Pit: 9%
I have thought things through, and no, I was wrong a few days ago when I said he had a decent chance. He is deconfirmed. But Lucina will still help him quite a bit with others' ratings.
Roy: 0.5%
Is anybody really going to rate him higher than a 1%? We already have a Marth clone and 3 other FE characters. Also, he was never really likely to begin with. Anything that made him cool is gone >:o

 

[loganhogan]

Shulk
chance- 50%
Since gematsu is dead/outdated and was wrong in Chrom's case then it could also be wrong on Shulk. He could easily appear in this game as an assist trophy. I'll give him a neutral rating because I believe he mainly benefited because of the leak. Shulk is very comparable to many characters in Brawl's era that ended up as assist trophies. I'm only tking 10% from what I rated him last time.
want- 0%

Chorus Men
Chance- 35%
Same thing I said for Shulk, except I think that it's probably Marshall who's going in. RH has an enemy in smash run and I find that credible enough to almost back up a newcomer.
want- 0%

Gematsu credibility?
50% It definitely got a good chunk right but it's also been wrong on several occasions not just Chrom so I don't know put much trust in it anymore.
want 0% Now that I've got who I wanted I don't really care for the remaining left.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Shulk:

Chance: 80% - The Gematsu leaker still seemed very confident in him, and given his track record I'm willing to say Shulk is still much more likely than not. Still somewhat of a drop, he's not guaranteed anymore, but still the most likely newcomer on the table atm.

Want: 50% - Very indifferent to him.

Chorus Men:

Chance: 40% - Now these guys didn't get another mention by the leaker, which is much less assuring for them. Sure, we have that ghost thing in Smash Run, but that doesn't necessarily mean Chorus Men, might aswell be another RH rep. Even then the ghost hardly guarantees a RH either.

Want: 0% - They can go die in a fire for what I care.

Gematsu legitimacy: 60% - I don't believe it's simply outdated as judging from Sakurai's recent Famitsu column it sounds like Chrom was never brought very far as Robin was a match made in heaven, I doubt he was on any of the early drafts of the roster. I don't believe the leaker is making stuff up himself either, nobody is that lucky. From the leaker's last message it sounds a lot like he works at, or has contacts within Namco Bandai, and like he says Nintendo keeps a lot of secrets from them, so I'm going to guess he's running on office rumors created from around early development, and quite simply he has been misinformed on some things. Chrom might be the exception, but he might aswell not be the only one, it's hard to say at this point, but we know for sure that we can't trust it as much as we did in the past. For now I'm just going to give it a chance percentage that is in-between Shulk and Chorus Men's.

 

[MechaWave]

(First time posting here so excuse me if I do this wrong.)

SHULK
Chance: 80% - From one of the newer Nintendo franchises that is actually successful to an extent. Popular choice among many and has good moveset potential. The problem with this character is that he's from a niche genre and is somewhat generic.

Want: 50% - I don't really care whether he gets in or not, but it would be cool to see him if he does get in.

CHORUS MEN
Chance: 50% - I don't particuarly think the Chorus Men have a great chance, especially because Rhythm Heaven doesn't have a consistent character in its series to represent it; the Chorus Men are just one among many possibilities. Likely they will just incorporate Rhythm Heaven elements from its various minigames and styles into their moveset, which is, again, possible for any other Rhythm Heaven rep.

Want: 10% - Don't care about the character at all, though I would like to see some Rhythm Heaven rep anyway. Not to mention that the character only appeared in the DS game in one minigame, afaik.

GEMATSU LEGITIMACY
Possibility: 0%

I never believed this pile of garbage from the start and I can't believe other people do too. I guess it's because they just want to know if their precious characters get in the game or not. Thankfully, I don't care who gets in the roster in the end, so this leak never mattered to me. However, it did affect practically all speculation within the community which is annoying.

Frankly, I think the guy got insanely lucky with his inital predictions. Most of them were obvious, save for the Wii Fit Trainer. How did this guy get any attention in the first place? Is some **** behind this?

After the guy got his fame, he decides to go on and "leak" other potential newcomers. (Why anyone would want a leak to be true is beyond me, it completely ruins the main part of the game.) Again, the characters he predicts are obvious choices; characters that many people were expecting beforehand anyway. If you're going to leak something, you also need to be specific. If you have so much internal intel, then you should know what the characters are. A "Pokemon from X/Y" is not gonna cut it, especially when that prediction is THE most obvious out of the bunch.

Let's also not forget he completely missed out on Rosalina and Chrom. Rosalina, maybe because the leak was published after her reveal, but Chrom completely makes this leak go in the garbage where it belongs. The hilarious part is the damage control. "Well, Sakurai changed the trailers or the footage just to spite Gematsu believers." Give me a ****ing break. I don't think anyone understands the scope of development that even goes into those trailers, nevertheless a full-fledged character. Right before the Direct, he was so sure that Shulk would be revealed, and afterwards, the ass-kisser "messenger" still goes to lengths to say the leak is still true.

I previously posted months ago I would hope people would stop believing in this trash. Some idiot took advantage of obvious character predictions. So I'm glad it's over. /endrant