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[Zhadgon]

Black Shadow
Chance: 5%
Want: 40%
He is a villain and Smash needs more of those, still I don´t see him getting before Ridley, King K. Rool or Medusa.

Chorus Men / Kids / Marshal
Chance: 45.45%
Want: 50%
I need to see his / their moveset to rate it higher, to the chance percentage I rate it with the Sal Romano leak, 5 characters confirmed of 11 mentioned.

.n_n.

 

[SpiderJerusalem]

Black Shadow
Chance: 15%
If there's a second F-Zero rep, he's really the only logical choice (Goroh's an AT). As many have said, he could get the GDorf moveset, but F-Zero's just MIA. Hopefully Nintendo's got some secret game that we don't know about.
Want: 50%
I'd only want him if he got GDorf's moveset and Captain Falcon's Final Smash was changed to the awesome Falcon Punch he does in the anime so he could warp BS's face

Chorus Men
Chance: 5%
lol
Want: 60%
If it was a trio and the moveset was interesting enough, Chorus Men could be a cool character! Although there's a lot of factors that could make them a bad character choice

 

[Smasher 101]

Black Shadow's chances: 15% - Though his only real competition is out, I don't think we'll get another F-Zero character to begin with.
Want: 90% - I'd like if it did though, and I had switched sides to Black Shadow by the time Goroh was knocked out (though I still would have liked him too).

Chorus Men's chances: 10% - I'm not that sure that the leak is true.
Want: 30% - I'm beginning to like the idea of a RH character more...but I dunno about these guys.

Lucina prediction: 12.92%
Roy prediction: 24.19%
Chromcina prediction: 14.20%

 

[Xenigma]

He hasn't guessed anything wrong, he said that those characters were going to be added, he never said that they were going to be announced in the E3 or something, also Wii Fit Trainer is a character that almost noone though about and he even said the name "Wii Fit Trainer", even if all the character he announced hasn't been confirmed yet, but many of those that he have said have been confirmed (maybe not as soon as he said them, but with time they were)

FYI, the original leak most definitely said all six were to be revealed at E3, which caused many to doubt it originally when that didn't come to pass and remains a significant flaw.

 

[cephalopod17]

Black Shadow
Chance: 5%
Unfortunately F-Zero has not had a game since 2003. Samurai Goroh is an assist trophy. I don't really see an F-Zero newcomer as possible, although if Ganondorf is revamped Sakurai could always give Black Shadow Ganondorf's moveset. Even then though, I don't find it likely.

Want: 55%
Mostly neutral, reason for the 5% increase is because if we did get Black Shadow, it shows Nintendo still cares about F-Zero.

Chorus Men
Chance : 10%
Without the leak, they have very little chance. Rhythm Heaven is a good series and should get representation, but I think that it should be someone more iconic, like that Monkey (Only one I knew prior to researching). With the leak added in though, it does boost their chance. The leaker got several right so far, but I don't put much stock in that, because Villager, Megaman and Little Mac (and most others he claims) were likely anyways. A Pokémon from X/Y was a given, considering we got two Gen 1 Pokémon in 64, One Gen 2 Pokémon in Melee, and One Gen 4 Pokémon in Brawl. The only reason that the Chorus Men have an advantage over other RH characters is because the leak predicted Wii Fit Trainer. Even then, I don't believe it.

Want: 5%
The whole trio concept seems hard to implement and their designs are generic. I don't really want a RH rep, but if there is one I like it is the Monkey. RH needs a stage though.

Lucina - 10%
Roy - 20%
Chrom & Lucina - 5%

 

[Aqua Rock X]

BLACK SHADOW

Chance: 30% - Most likely F-Zero newcomer if we got one.

Want: 50% - Indifferent.

CHORUS MEN

Chance: 10% - Just a guess.

Want: 50% - Indifferent.

Lucina Prediction: 10%

Roy Prediction: 40%

Chrom and Lucina Prediction: 2%

 

[Xhampi]

Black Shadow
Chance : 15%
Well we got Little Mac so why not give Japan one of their wanted characters, it also helps that Goroh is done and that F-Zero is still at 1 rep leaving plenty of room for Black Shadow.

But will F-Zero get a new rep ?

Want : 65%
My main character in every F-Zero he appears in and our best hope to keep Captain Ganon moveset if Ganondorf get a new one.

Chorus Men
Chance : 10%
Were those guys even suggested before the leak ?
Oh well, I give them a 5% in case that the leak is true and 5% as a character by themselves.

Want : 0%
As long as we get a Rythm Heaven stage, I'm fine thank you.
No way that I support a Rhythm Heaven rep before an Advance Wars rep or a Chibi Robo rep.
And I want the Wrestler over them.

Prediction :
Lucina : 12%
Roy : 10%
Chrom and Lucina : 0%

 

[Sid-cada]

Black Shadow

Chance - 1.75% - I'm giving him a few scraps from Goroh's disconfirmation. It doesn't amount to much, though.

Want - 30% - Yeah, not too bad, but there's much better.


Chorus Men

Chance - 0.5% - Even if the leak is correct, I have a hunch that it's really Marshal that's being referred to. Don't think it'll be him.

Want - 5% - Bleh. Still going with Karate Joe, guys.


Predictions

Lucina - 10.35% - Going to take a plummet due to the "leak."

Roy - 36.56% - Same thing yet again.

Chrom and Lucina Team - 3.45% - I would not be surprised if many called them disconfirmed tomorrow.

 

[loganhogan]

Black Shadow
chance 13% want 25%

He's pretty much the only guy left for F-zero, Samurai Goroh's fate was sealed and I think he stands a better chance than the Pico, Jody, or Dr. Stewart. I wouldn't count on it happening but it's still a possibility.

Chorus men
chance 33% want 25%

I'm trying not to rely on the leak too much but Rhythm Heaven sort of makes sense as under the radar type of deal like the Wii Fit characters. However i'm confused why would they pick the Chorus men? To me they don't seem like leading material for the Rhythm Heaven series.

 

[Morbi]

I haven't done one of these in awhile; I just saw Black Shadow's name and knew I had to vote.
Black Shadow's Chance: 100%
Black Shadow's Want: 100(000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 X infinity)%

 

[IvanQuote]

Hoo boy. Where do I begin...

Black Shadow:

Chance: 10%

Sakurai is smart enough to not cut Falcon from the game (let's face it, from the references to Falcon Punch in Brawl, he full well knows of his memetic status,) but I highly doubt there will be a second F Zero rep. I'm not concerned about him not being unique, I'm just thinking that F Zero is a bit outdated. If Sakurai does add him, I'm expecting a moveset as awesome and memetic as his rival's >:D

Want: 30%

See the closing sentence above. Also, for a villain rep, I'd much rather Ridley, K. Rool, or Palutena.

Choir Boys:

Chance: ??? (Maybe 50%?)

This is just out of left field. Rhythm Heaven is one of Nintendo's most popular recent games (I think?) so it definitely has a good chance of a rep. It can be very unique to play as too.

Want: ??? (80%?)

Call it Inception, but after hearing about the leak, I would be happy to have an RH rep. It has several mini games worth of attacks (but this cannot fully support a rep, as Game & Watch has this niche already.) I feel an rhythm based moveset would be cool, a hard to play high risk-very high reward character. I would imagine that to do any substantial damage, you use rhythm when doing attacks, but when mastered, damage and priority go through the roof and 0 to death combos can be rattled of like clock work (think DK's Final Smash, except applied to every move.)

 

[Kenith]

Black Shadow:

Chance: 12%. Really, his chances depend on the size of the roster. If it warrants the existing series getting new characters, then Black Shadow is the only plausible choice now, as Samurai Goroh is disconfirmed. However, considering the general consensus on how many characters we do get, Black Shadow's chances are really low, and the only way I could see him getting in is adopting Ganondorf's old moveset (if he gets a new one)

Want: 30%. I haven't much experience with F-Zero, but I would really like to, and dammit, we need another racer!
However, on the other hand, Black Shadow seems like a combination of macho man Captain Falcon and inherently evil Ganondorf, so I don't think he should be a priority.

Chorus Men:

Chance: 2%. First off, leaks are fake. Second, this character is a huge stretch. Third, Rhythm Heaven has the same problem as WarioWare in that there are many characters, but none of them really stand out. Considering the series is so full of briefly used concepts, capitalizing on just one would be unfair and unrepresentative of the series. Plus, how do you incorporate rhythm into a fighter in a literal sense? It would be unique, but also incredibly gimmicky, which I think is way worse than a clone.

Also, when the Roster Maker, which has icons for freaking comic book characters and Shrek, doesn't even have these guys registered, says something about their chances. (Though I imagine WFT didn't have one either, but unlike these guys, she/he is somewhat of a mascot to one of Nintendo's best selling games ever made.)

Want: 1%. Sorry, these guys are nobodies to me. If our Rhythm Heaven character isn't the Wrestler, I don't care, that's the only one I remember.

Predictions:
Lucina: 12%.
Roy: 15%
Chrom and Lucina: 2%

 

[YoshiandToad]

Black Shadow
Chance: 8%
F-Zero secondary rep. Goroh's out. Nintendo isn't treating F-Zero well at all overall with no plans to continue the series...side note; maybe they should just outsource it to Sega? GX was pretty amazing.
Popular in Japan due to the anime, has his own powers, or could be a lazy vehicle to dump Falcondorf's moveset onto. Hopefully not...who the hell wants that moveset even?

Want: 66%
Would of preferred Goroh, by a lot, but since the Samurai is out the running I'd happily settle for the next best option for F-Zero rival and go with the supernatural powers of Black Shadow. F-Zero kind of deserves one more character at this point, as well as a decent revival.

Chorus Men
Chance: 50%
Leak could be true...could be nonsense. Honestly hard to tell. Rhythm Heaven deserves SOMETHING though.

Want: 50%
Pre-Smashboards return I had Marshall on my Newcomer Bingo card...I guess I'd be okay with Rhythm Heaven getting these guys instead, but...I still have a hard time seeing a rhythm based moveset working to it's fullest potential. Possibly feel like Wrestler should be an Assist Trophy and Rhythm Heaven should be represented through a stage and music...still a bit mixed feelings on a playable character due to concerns about the rhythm mechanics working well enough.

Predictions:
Lucina: 11%
Roy: 15%
Chrom and Lucina: 1.6%

Veteran Roy will probably score highest from these guys but don't expect impressive scores from the majority.

 

[Smady]

Black Shadow

5% Chance: F-Zero's unlikely to get a rep when it's, unfortunately, dead. If there was to be one, Black Shadow is the obvious replacement for Ganondorf's old moveset and a good villain when there have been zero. Ganondorf having a new set and Black Shadow taking the old is practically two villains for the price of one. However, there's nothing to suggest this would happen, it's just a hunch.

20% Want: I'd like Deathborn, Blood Falcon or some other obscurer F-Zero character before Shadow, as the series has a tonne of hilarious characters. Black Shadow is the most prominent character to add besides Falcon and Goroh, so I'd not be surprised or disappointed, just salty that we didn't get the guy who has this theme.

Chorus Men

1% Chance: I don't believe the leak, Mii was confirmed as a profile or stage element in the direct. That aside, Rhythm Heaven getting a character over Advance Wars, Golden Sun and so on? Seems quite ludicrous. It's a fun game series but what it needs is a stage and definitely music, it'd be a real oddball move to all of a sudden implement a wacky character.

0% Want: If Rhythm Heaven were to get a slot, I'd prefer if it went to the Fever characters like the Wrestler, Samurai, or long-standing quasi mascot Karate Joe. This would be an incredibly underwhelming newcomer.

Lucina: 9%
Roy: 12%
Chrom and Lucina: 2%

Fire Emblem still has only one character a handful of months from release. We may get one unlockable, but Ike is unlikely to get cut and if that's the case, they're not adding two characters, whether or not one is actually a Melee veteran.

 

[False Sense]

Chorus Men... What a strange case this is. This is a character who's only real merit is the leak; outside of that, there seems to be a lot going against this character (better choices for a Rhythm Heaven character, the difficulty of having three characters in one if that's what "men" means, etc). So, this character's likelihood is tied to that of the leaks likelihood. But how to calculate that...

Well, looking at my ratings for other characters that were part of the leak, I gave Miis the lowest rating, a 20% chance score. If Miis don't get in, the leak can't be true and Chorus Men become exceedingly unlikely. So I guess that puts them at 20%. There's also the small chance that the Chorus Men could be in regardless of the leak, so add 1% to that. But then there's a legitimate possibility that the leak isn't true, but the Miis get in anyway. Or maybe only parts of the leak are true. I think that should take off another 10%.

So, that means my final score for Chorus Men would be 11% chance. I don't really believe the leak, and aside from that the idea of Chorus Men sounds very strange for Smash in the first place.

Chorus Men Want: 20%

I guess they could be interesting, and they are cute, at the very least. But I know very little about the Rhythm Heaven series, and I think there are other, more deserving characters that their development time could have gone into.

 

[andimidna]

(PS... The Chrom and Lucina we're rating is an Ice Climber type team. We're not rating a concept of both getting in as separate slots or them as some sort of transformation character... just wanted to say this in advance)

 

[Chandeelure]

-Black Shadow:
Chances: 15%
Want: 50%

-Chorus Men:
Chances: 1%
Want: 10%

 

[colder_than_ice]

Also, for a villain rep, I'd much rather Ridley, K. Rool, or Palutena.

Wait, Palutena's a villain?

 

[Bauske]

Black Shadow
Chance: 7% - As dead as F-Zero has been lately, it's hard to imagine the series getting another rep. Especially since I bet it was a pain to create a moveset for Captain Falcon, who mainly just drives his vehicle.
Want: 15% - I love the F-Zero games, but I have no interest in playing as another character.

Chorus Men
Chance: 20% (if we're talking about all three characters)/80% (if we're talking about just Marshal) - Reason: I believe the Sal leaker, so I think one or the other will come true, but I'm betting more on Marshal alone rather than a trio.
Want: 90% - Many people think, much like Pac-Man, that this character would be boring or have a dull moveset. I beg to differ. Even though Marshal himself or the Chorus Men haven't done a plethora of activities in the games, they can still pull from a wide selection of references from the Rhythm Heaven series. There is so much to draw here, from badminton to building robots, from tossing love potions to punching flower pots. The moveset for Marshal/Chorus Men could be just as silly as Mr. Game & Watch, and seeing how he's one of my favorite characters, I would totally welcome his/their inclusion.

Lucina prediction: 19% - Pretty low. With the inevitable inclusion of Chrom, it feels like Lucina's interest has gone down.
Roy prediction: 25% - Lots of people still like Roy, but unless they give him a unique moveset, I'd hate to see another clone-type character in Smash 4.
Lucina/Chrom prediction: 1% - Now that Sakurai has stated characters won't transform, and that even seems to extend to Pokemon Trainer standing in the background, it doesn't look likely that a tag team combo would happen.

 

[IvanQuote]

Wait, Palutena's a villain?

It's a joke on how she always gives Pit gifts that nearly kill him in Uprising.

 

[Hades the Magnificent]

Wait, Palutena's a villain?

Of course she is. All I wanted to do was resurrect a poor little orphan girl's family and let them live in peace and prosperity. She may call herself the patron of the people, but Palutena actually tried to eliminate the human race at one point! You Kin believe me, honestly!

 

[DeOnde]

Black Shadow (aka Burakku Shadõ from the falcon punch clip; Kyaputen Farucon's nemesis) Chance: 13,5%

We need more villains in smash, that's for sure, but i don't think BS is in the top of anyone's list of the most probable villains to enter SSB4; also, he would need a moveset made completely out of nowhere (like they did with the series protagonist, cpt. Falcon), or would they?

Want: 65%

You might think i want him in too much, but this is not the case. so, why do i want Black Shadow in ssb4? SO THAT WE CAN HAVE THE OLD GANONDORF IN! That's right, as much as everybody dislikes clones, there is no denying that a "heavier" version of Cpt. Falcon's moveset is prefered by many; aaaand since ganondorf is getting reworked, we could have his current moveset as a new character, Black Shadow!

Chorus Men: Chance: 35%

100% Leak Dependent, really.

Want: 70%

Quirky characters with creative playstyles are always welcome.

 

[Groose]

Chorus Men Likelihood: 15%
Want: 100%
rhythm heaven dawg

You were the first person who crossed my mind when I heard about the leak. I think today's results will please you.

Black Shadow: 25% chance
Black Shadow is pretty popular in Japan, so he'll probably get at least a glance from the team. It's also pretty clear that he's the only potential F-Zero candidate now that Goroh has reprised his role as an AT. I can't say I really expect to see him, but there really aren't that many obstacles in front of him. One quick thing: F-Zero is dormant, but it isn't dead.

Black Shadow: 33% want
Would I like F-Zero to expand and return to its full glory? Yes. Do I want Black Shadow playable in Smash? Not particularly; I remember referring to him as "Batman" for the majority of my youth. My friends and I all thought he was just a rip-off. I wouldn't mind him, but this is one instance that shows I prefer to look for characters rather than representatives.

"Chorus Men": 50% chance
1) The "Chorus Men" would have a very small to nonexistent chance in my eyes if it weren't for the leak.
2) I believe there is a 50% chance that the leaks real; I honestly wouldn't be surprised by it either way.
3) Because there is a 50% chance of the leak being real, and it is their best hope, I give a 50%.
4) I'm not certain what "Chorus Men" means; I think it could very well refer to Marshal or a single Chorus Kid; I'd actually say this is probable.

"Chorus Men" Want: 50%
It would certainly be interesting, and they do have a charm to them. Getting them would also confirm Shulk (my #3) and Palutena (who is one of the charters hying me the most as well), so there's also that. Even so, I won't exceed 50% because of uncertainty about how they would work (let's not put an unnecessary amount of effort into them, OK?). I will note this, though--Glee Club is my favorite Rhythm Heaven game by far (it was the demo game, and I played A LOT of it), and I always liked the little guys, even if Smash never crossed my mind.

DAY OVER

LA! LA!
LAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!​

 

[Groose]

Black Shadow
11.87% chance (was 13.09%)
42.33% want (was 43.00%)
Black Shadow's rival deconfirmed in the Direct? Eh, it doesn't matter--his chances got Falcon Punched into oblivion when Nintendo decided to kill off the F-Zero franchise. Considering how hard Falcon Punches hit, I don't think we'll be seeing him again anytime soon.

"Chorus Men"
28.67% chance
39.24% want
That was... an interesting day. We had multiple ratings of 99% and multiple ratings of less than 1%. We had leak believers and leak condemners both--and when the dust settled, these are the results that we are left with. Chorus Men aren't openly welcomed here, but they do have a measure of support; in addition, they aren't expected, but they are definitely in consideration. I think this is one to watch until closer to release.

You'll get no sympathy today! Yup, it's another Fire Emblem discussion. Last time we talked about Chrom and Robin, the most expected and most locally popular of the potential Awakening characters. So, where does that leave Lucina? Does she have enough tricks up her sleeve to meet Marth on the battlefield, or will she be forced to remain on the sidelines? Speaking of the sidelines, that's exactly where Roy was forced to stand in Brawl. Will his popularity in Japan and among Melee fans triumph over the power of Awakening and allow him to rejoin the fray? Finally, we have one final thing to discuss: the system of teaming up played a pretty big part in Awakening, so will it carry over to Smash? Can a team of the game's stars, Chrom and Lucina, work together in an Ice Climbers-esque tandem? Please rate Lucina, Roy, and Chrom/Lucina today.

Tomorrow we must discuss something that many are depressed about: the fate of Ivysaur and Squirtle. Do people think that the pair have been cut? Please predict how Squirtle and Ivysaur will fare in tomorrow's match. Remember, no noms.

 

[Erimir]

Black Shadow

I don't think F-Zero is getting another rep. At this point, however, if it did it would be Black Shadow. I don't think Sakurai would feel the need to keep Ganondorf's old moveset in the game anymore than he felt the need to keep any cut character's moveset in the game. If you miss Pit or Bowser or Zelda/Sheik's old movesets you can always play the older games. If Black Shadow got in, it's possible he could take a variation on the Falcondorf moveset, but it's not necessary for a Ganondorf revamp.

Black Shadow chances: 5%
Black Shadow want: 50%
I'd be cool with that. What I really want is revamped Ganondorf though.

Chorus Men

The leak. That's the only reason. Olimar has already been reduced and we haven't seen the Ice Climbers yet. I'm not sure they'd want to put another super complex character in. Then again, they could have them be more tightly bound than the Ice Climbers... more like Pikmin. That would reduce the AI requirements. But then they would be less interesting to add in the first place.

Seems like a boring character and not much reason to predict other than the leak. Which could be accurate. Or it could be partially accurate (he meant Marshall, or he got something wrong, or he put fake info in to mess with us). But until I see a Mii or Chorus Men or Shulk, I will give it less credence. No points for getting Pac-Man, Chrom or Palutena.

Chorus Men chances: 20%
That's pretty much just the chance I give the leak right now.

Chorus Men want: 0%
No thanks.

Predictions:
Lucina - 16%
Roy - 30%
Chrom/Lucina team - 7%

 

[Wyoming]

Lucina

Chance - 5% - Chances decreasing as the roster fills up. I can't see her getting in above Chrom anyway and she faces fierce competition from Ike for a potential extra slot.
Want - 35% - No strong feelings. A female Fire Emblem character would be a decent little change aesthetically I suppose but not one I'm crying out for.

Roy
Chance - 10% - Rate him higher than Lucina on the basis that he's more in demand and has veteran status. With that said, I'm starting to doubt his inclusion with the roster filling up. And is Sakurai really keen on bringing back any of the Melee veterans? He's undoubtedly the second favourite after Mewtwo but that doesn't sound like a good thing at all, since Mewtwo could fill up the 'lost veteran' hype train to a greater affect. Plus I simply cannot see him beating Ike to a potential third slot and I don't see four Fire Emblem characters making it considering what we know so far.

Want - 55% - Purely on the fact that he's a cut veteran. I don't mind him, but I'd like to see everyone minus Young Link come back.

Chrom+Lucina
Chance - 3% - Unlike Rosalina, I cannot fathom how they could distance themselves away from copying Ice Climbers' 'gimmick'. Sure two flashy sword users fighting together would be awesome but I doubt this concept will be seen.

Want - 5% - Heh, prefer them being their own standalone character.

 

[Chandeelure]

-Lucina:
Chances: 40%
Want: 70%

-Roy:
Chances: 40%
Want: 5%

-Chrom/Lucina team:
Chances: 10%
Want: 5%

-Squirtle Prediction: 0,9%
-Ivysaur Prediction: 0,4%

 

[Smasher 101]

Lucina's chances: 10% - I find her to be the least likely of the Awakening trio.
Want: 60% - I'd prefer Chrom but I'd still like her inclusion, and I'd take her over Robin any day.

Roy's chances: 30% - Not exactly likely but I think it's definitely possible.
Want: 20% - Mehhhhh.

Chrom & Lucina team: 5% - I said this was underrated before but...now I think the most likely outcome would be an Ice Climbers-style team, and I doubt they'd do another one of those.
Want: 0% - Even though I support both Lucina and Chrom solo, I don't like the idea of them being paired together.

Ivysaur prediction: 0.97%
Squirtle prediction: 0.82% - Ivysaur might do slightly better since there's no grass type at the moment, but overall neither will do well at all.

 

[Deleted member]

Lucina, Roy, and Chrom & Lucina have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated any of these characters, check to see what you've said on their days!

My want for all of these characters will be saved at the end.
Lucina
Chance: 5%
My rating hasn't changed.
Lucina has been promoted by Intelligent Systems after when Awakening has been released. They might go with her if they believe that she best represents the game. While she has been used for promotion, so has Chrom and Robin.
I find her uniqueness and design to be her major drawbacks. The newcomers that Sakurai has put in ooze of uniqueness. Lucina... doesn't really show that. She is also essentially looks like Marth as a female... that doesn't stand out, does it? If anything, she might get lucky and be an extensive alternate costume for Marth.
She may be Japan's most wanted female now, but she lacks in the potential that I am questioning if she will even be considered. I think that she will be outcompeted by Chrom.

Roy
Chance: 20%
I gave him a 70%? I don't agree.
Roy is definitely popular in Japan and he is a cut Melee veteran. People were shocked when Mewtwo and Roy were cut in Brawl!
Roy is one of the bigger names when it comes to Fire Emblem speculation. There will probably be three Fire Emblem slots; with Marth taking one of them, possibly two of them remain. The main competitors are Ike, Roy, and Chrom. The still popular Ike is definitely the frontrunner when it comes to Fire Emblem and was even referenced in Awakening. I can see him take the second slot.
If Ike returns, then Roy will have to compete with Chrom and I think that Chrom will definitely outcompete Roy. It was all terrible timing for Roy. Chrom may not be as popular, but he comes from the most popular Fire Emblem game on the market and the one that saved the franchise. Chrom is definitely the frontrunner for the Fire Emblem newcomer.
I say that Roy has his merits, but I don't think his fire sword will make him stand out. It doesn't scream incredibly unique.

Chrom & Lucina
Chance: 1%
This is a unique idea that incorporates two popular characters in one... but it comes with a multitude of problems.
I think that this will be more of a technical nightmare than the Ice Climbers. The Ice Climbers are extremely identical in design and of course would have the same moveset. This tag team, however, has two completely different looking characters that might use two completely different movesets. Such a thing might not be worth the effort for Sakurai.

ALL WANT: 0%
I don't give a damn about Fire Emblem characters. I might give a rare want score that is above 0% if the character interests me, but none of these characters do.
Lucina looks like Marth. She would be an uninteresting semi-clone; that's boring.
Roy would be the same deal. I don't really care for him and the loss of him in Brawl wasn't as bad as Mewtwo. Sure, it left a gap for me, but Roy's absence and Awakening's popularity now gives me a new gap that needs to be filled by a character from Awakening.
The Chrom & Lucina tag team, while it's a good idea on paper, is not worth the effort due to the technical issues that may arise.

Squirtle Prediction: 5.55%
Ivysaur Prediction: 5.55%
I will be surprised if one of them gets higher than the other.

 

[andimidna]

Lucina:
Roy:

Chrom could be made unique if they really try, but he isn't going to be anything crazy solo.
These 2 won't get over him alone probably, but they are both more popular than him n Japan...
I think we finally got rid of Roy, now he is an outdated lord from over a decade ago that has only been in one game.
He would only be worth bringing back if he was unique, but he's not.
We got rid of the clone, so there's no reason to bring him back. Ok, cool, people want him. But after his reveal, what's he going to bring? MORE FIRE? I just don't think so. There have been many lords after him. All with arguably more moves to pull from. He was just a last-minute character to expand the roster size by 1 with a clone. This time it seems quality over quantity is the focus... as it should be, so I'm not seeing him happening.
I know people don't like the concept of Sakurai adding someone over somebody else just because they're female, but we can't count out that as a possibility. She has more story-focus in Awakening and Japan popularity. She could be made unique, but like Chrom, it wouldn't be anything crazy solo. But I see her as very possible.

Lucina chance: 20%
Roy chance: 5%

Roy's saving factor (and basically only chance IMO) is that if Sakurai doesn't want to add or see the appeal of any Fire Emblem newcomer (which would surprise me greatly), he probably wouldn't just have Marth and Ike, he'd bring Roy back, that's how I see things. But I also see the chance of a Fire Emblem newcomer being 96% (AKA, 1% chance we'd get Roy alongside Chrom and/or Lucina instead of a 2nd unique newcomer)
But at least 1 Awakening character is inevitable in my eyes. Not even someone specific to the game, but someone actually in it. (Everybody was DLC, Ok not everybody, but every lord except Ike because Priam, so that's not a good argument for Roy)

Lucina want: 99.9%
Roy want: 3%

He's alright. Kind of boring. Good for Fire Emblem, bad for Smash.
She's awesome and I love her.

Chrom & Lucina:

+more unique than Solo Chrom
+represents Awakening better than Solo Chrom
+adds the character with more story-focus and Japan popularity alongside Chrom, including Chrom, with his western popularity.
+represents an important mechanic in Awakening
+they're both the lords of Awakening, not just 1 or the other.

Chrom is EXTREMELY likely,
but how is he going to be unique?
Yea. I see this as the ideal pick.
I think Chrom has a 50% chance of being with her, and a 50% chance of being without her.
I think I gave Chrom something like a... 83%?
Well I give it a .5% increase for every pro listed above, I see it as making much more sense for both Fire Emblem representation, and a fighting game. Chrom is a mixture of Ike and Marth, that's great for Fire Emblem, but not for a fighting game!
We don't have a sword or lance duo! Our only equal team-based characters are cute, little Ice Climbers!
The result would be a unique duo of characters with high popularity amongst both Smash Bros and Fire Emblem fans! It would be worth all effort. Which I doubt would be more difficult than Snake, Ice Climbers, Olimar, or Rosaluma at all.
I mean, we rated a trio yesterday!
If people seriously think Sakurai would work on IC's technical issues for months and than just give up...
C'mon, how hard could it be? The characters I listed seem more complicated to me.
How is this not... everything I've said?

Chrom & Lucina chance: 85.5%
Like I said.
Chrom & Lucina want: 100%
Because it introduces a new mechanic I'd personally love to explore in Smash Bros.
And these are the perfect characters to do it with. Or at least I can't think of anyone better.
Plus, I love Lucina!

Squirtle: 1.6%
I believe he was the most used of the trio.
Ivysaur: 1.6%
Lack of grass type.

I bet they will both stay over 1 as I'm sure at least one person here believes the separated characters will take the same slot on the roster.

 

[colder_than_ice]

The popularity chart has been updated.

Lucina
Chance: 11% - It doesn't make much sense for the tritagonist to get in ahead of the two protagonists, but she is extremely popular.
Want: 100% - She's perfect for SSB4, she challenges her fate, and she'll say when it ends.

Roy
Chance: 30% - Old news and retired. He does have a massive following of Melee loyalists pushing for his return which could help him.
Want: 30% - I'd strongly prefer an Awakening character.

Fire Climbers
Chance: 13% - I think people put way too much stalk into the 3DS limitations. I've played some powerful games on both the 3DS and even it's predecessor, the regular DS, that have reached much more impressive feats than putting eight AIs on a small 2D battlefield. It may be true that the 3DS is harder to program for (Especially compared to the much more powerful Wii U) but I don't think it's in anyway incapable. Chrom and Lucina are iconic as a team and it would make sense to put them together in this way.
Want: 100% - This may be the only way I can have them both.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Lucina: 5% Why would the third most important in the game get in over the most important?
Want: 0% I have always hated Lucina.

Roy: 18%
Want: 25% If he is in then Ike will most likely be out.

Chrom + Lucina: 0.1%
Want: 0% Who even thought this up?

Squirtle: 4.01%
Ivysaur: 2.34%

 

[SchAlternate]

Welp, I'm back. Guess it's "Be a Grumpy Douche about FE Characters" day again.

BAH! HUMBUG!

Lucina
Chance: 35% - I'm rather skeptic about her. Sure, Greninja basically proved that an Awakening character may appear sooner or later, but I'm not sure they'll pick Ms MacGuffin over Chrom or Robin, assuming there will be an Awakening rep in the first place. I mean, she isn't even the lead character.
Want: 0% - Egh.

Roy
Chance: 20% - Melee cut? Check. Popular in Japan? Check. Is among the more likely of the potential newcomers? Check. Has a fire sword? So much check! Has any relevance to the FE series as a whole outside of any possible cameos in recent game? ... Welp, that's a cross, and a really big one.
Want: Gee, just how much does the dude that wears a Roy avatar all the time, mains him in Melee and P:M., and occasionally yells "Roy's our Boy", wants him in the next game?

... about 50%.

Yeah, since I'm no longer blinded by nostalgia, I've gotta admit that I don't want Roy that badly anymore. Sure I'd HYPECSTATIC if he end up in the game, but I'm not as desperate for him as I was a couple of months ago.

Chromatic Hallucination
Oh yeah, what a great idea! A cheap way to shove in two characters from the most recent game using a fighting style that Sakurai said that it's giving him some technical issues! What could possibly go wrong!?

All of it. Double zeroes.

 

[Chandeelure]

Want: Gee, just how much does the dude that wears a Roy avatar all the time, mains him in Melee and P:M., and occasionally yells "Roy's our Boy", wants him in the next game?

... about 50%.

I'm scared.

 

[Pacack]

Lucina:

Chance: 3%
I don't see her happening. If we're getting an Awakening Lord (alone), it'll be Chrom.

Want: 15%
Eh.

Roy:

Chance: 11%
His chances lie in Sakurai wanting to buff the roster last minute again. I don't think there's more than a 1% chance that he'll be a higher priority than an Awakening candidate. I just don't.

Want: 4%
...I like Marth. I couldn't care less for Roy.

Chrom/Lucina Tag Team:

Chance: 20%
Possible, but I'd be surprised to see it happening since we just got Rosalina & Luma. Then again, I've been surprised before.

Want: 30%
I'd much rather have Robin or Anna or Tiki, but this is more interesting than either of them solo, for sure.

 

[Starbound]

Lucina: 12% Chance / 100% Want

Roy: 1% Chance / 10% Want

Luchrom Team: 99% Chance / 70% Want

 

[Zhadgon]

Lucina
Chance: 5%
Want: 25%
I would prefer Ephraim with his spear or Hector with his axe.

Roy
Chance: 3%
Want: 20%
And he was one of my mains in Melee.

Chrom + Lucina
Chance: 4%
Want: 80%
I love tag team characters and I love the movesets from Fire Emblem characters in Smash, what can I say.

.n_n.

 

[loganhogan]

Martha Lucina

chance 15% want 55%

She's a bit of an underdog between the three Awakening lords but she plays exactly like Chrom other than different sword stance. They're both very popular lords but what holds her back is her design, if she had a different outfit she would probably be more accepted than Chrom for Smash bros. I don't expect her to join the game in place of Chrom, if she were to be playable Chrom would probably be playable too. However unlike the three previous lords included in smash bros Chrom isn't the only protagonist in Awakening and pair up is a brand new and important mechanic in Awakening but i'll go over this on Chromcina's rating. I like Lucina she was my favorite lord in Awakening but I think Chrom's the likelier choice, and Lucina is not my most wanted Fire Emblem character.

Roy

chance 15% want 20%

Unlike Lucina and Chrom his red hair might help him stand out more than his competition. However he was a clone and he's competing against more relevant figures, which might hurt him the most because Fire emblem like Pokémon are the two series that rely on relevance the most. I think his chance relies on Sakurai possibly favoring to include the old Marth-Roy team back for some nostalgia factor. In order to truly catch my interest he will need a brand new moveset because his hair color and fire sword effect isn't enough for me. Assuming he's a clone 0% want, assuming he's not a clone 40% want I'll put half of that.

Chromcina

chance 55% want 75%

I'm rating it this high for a few reasons. One being pair up is a new mechanic and Lucina would work best with Chrom because they share the same animations bar the fighting stance and both are frequently displayed working together. Both are also the most popular characters in Awakening and this would knock two birds with one stone. Transformation would not work but they might be able to switch at base or be alternate choice of the other if not a pair up. It's not my idea but somebody on the Fire Emblem thread suggested adding Lucina as an alternate choice to Chrom similar to Wii Fit Trainer(s) and I think there's a possibility of that happening.

 

[FalKoopa]

Lucina: 5%
Probably the least likely of the Awakening protagonist trio. She's an interesting character story-wise, but it doesn't lend her the moveset potential to get in over Chrom or Robin.

Want: 0%
Not interested in the slightest.

Roy: 10%
Frankly, all he does have going for him are his status as a veteran, being a quick clone and his fire sword. It gives him a good chance of being a quick last minute clone.

Want: 90%
I don't really care whether he's in or not. But my brother wants him real bad.

Chrom/Lucina Tag Team: 0%
The days of dual characters are over.

Want: 0%
I never once understood how it was supposed to work.

 

[Erimir]

Lucina

Female Marth... would offer some benefit by being female, but is too similar to Marth. Why don't they make their lead characters more different?

Lucina chances: 8%
Lucina want: 38%

Roy

Fiery sword makes him more different from other Fire Emblem characters. But he'd need an entirely new moveset to be interesting to me. Wasting a spot on bringing back a previously cut Marth clone seems meh.

He is pretty wanted though.

Roy chances: 10%
Roy want: 42%

Chrom + Lucina

Weight before was partly because they could've been a transformation. We know that won't happen now though. But Ice Climbers style team? I doubt it. Rosalina got in, true, but we already have Ice Climbers and we don't really need another. Olimar already got reduced, I assume Ice Climbers is giving the 3DS some trouble too. They probably don't want to make a team that's even more work than Ice Climbers (since Chrom and Lucina are more different and have more complicated models than Nana and Popo).

Chromcina chances: 1%
Chromcina want: 0%
I don't like the Ice Climbers much, don't really want them spending their time making another one.

Predictions
Squirtle - 1.2%
We've already got our water type
Ivysaur - 2.7%
We don't have a grass type, but I don't think people will think Ivy can go the distance

Lucina chance: 20%
Chrom & Lucina chance: 85.5%

This implies you think there's some chance that we'll get both Lucina solo and Lucina as part of a team with Chrom.

These are supposed to be mutually exclusive ratings, they should not be able to add up to more than 100%.

The result would be a unique duo of characters with high popularity amongst both Smash Bros and Fire Emblem fans!

I dunno... competitive types like ICs because they're high tier. I'm not sure they're that popular though really...

Which I doubt would be more difficult than Snake, Ice Climbers, Olimar, or Rosaluma at all.
If people seriously think Sakurai would work on IC's technical issues for months and than just give up...
C'mon, how hard could it be? The characters I listed seem more complicated to me.

How is Snake more complicated for the hardware than any of those characters? He has a weird moveset, but he doesn't require the CPU to control additional characters.

I mean, we rated a trio yesterday!

What does that have to do with anything?