Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[Sari]

Ice Climbers:
Chance: 40%
Want: 50%

Sakurai stated that it would be difficult to program them in the 3DS version, and since they were starting characters for Melee and Brawl, they would most likely have been announced/leaked by now. I never really played as them, but I sort of want them back just because they've been in Smash since Melee.

Lucas:
Chance: 30%
Want: 100%

Lucas is from a single Japanese only handheld game released 8 years ago. I think by this point, Nintendo has already settled with Ness (and even then some people are still debating if he'll really return or not). Despite this, I'd love to see Lucas return since he was one of my mains in Brawl.

Wolf:
Chance: 60%
Want: 50%

Wolf was similar to Fox in many ways but was also very different. I think if Nintendo had to choose between keeping him or replacing him with Krystal, they should bring back Wolf. Even though I think he'll be back, I never really liked playing as him that much in Brawl.

 

[Groose]

@ Groose what are we going to be doing about the "Top 10 of Chance" after this is over, now? Are we going to finalize it with the current characters?

Because, honestly, if we're going to do that I REALLY think we should rerate the remaining characters in the "Top 10 of Chance" as well, because likely every character not on the leak is going to drop down to nothing. If this isn't the case, it may be an issue because some characters are unfairly in the Top 10 and we're just going to leave it as the final rating after ratings close. Just a thought.

To tell the truth, that section was far more important for an "in the moment" look than it is for legacy, so I'm not quite sure how we'll handle it. Over the coming fall I intend to write a few posts analyzing the trends and history of our results that will provide posterity with a summary of what transpired here.

...It seems I miscounted and forgot about today. >_>

It's taken a day longer than I thought, but we've reached the penultimate point nonetheless. We've suffered quite a few characters on the way...more than many thought we would. There may yet be a chance, though, that we'll find them alive and well before the end, having survived despite impossible odds. If not, though, my thoughts go out to those who lost dear friends.

But we need to remember, all of us, that even when things seem at their darkest...there is still reason to fight.

Nah. I just kind of forgot to have the day about the "seemingly cut" veterans, so I added it in and extended things a bit. Sorry about that!

 

[Opossum]

This day hits hard...

Ice Climbers -

Want: 100%

If they don't come back, I will truly refer to it as Sakurai's Biggest Blunder. Sorry, not sorry. This is especially true if they don't get brought to the Wii U due to the objectively inferior 3DS. These guys mean the world to me, and unlike Wolf or Lucas, this is all they have. Mother 3 has a huge cult following, and a new Star Fox game is finally coming out. The Ice Climbers really only have Smash Bros. That's what would make this cut so hearbreaking.

Chance: 15%

I think there's a glimmer of hope for them being a surprise unlockable, them being on the Wii U, them being DLC, or them being in the "finished, non-ESRB" build. That being said, things aren't looking good.

Lucas -

Want: 100%

I never want veterans to be cut, even ones that I have no personal attachment to, like Lucas.

Chance: 10%

Sadly, I think Lucas is in a slightly worse sinking boat than the Ice Climbers. Not only was he a starter, and Ness is seemingly an unlockable again, but he was also stated to be outright cut in the Gematsu leak. I'm still a part of the "Gematsu was right, but outdated" club, but still. That combined with what we know now...isn't looking so good for Lucas.
Wolf -

Want: 100%

Out of the Star Fox characters, he was my favorite to play as. I'd be quite upset if his truly unique playstyle was dropped in favor of Falco's less-unique playstyle.

Chance: 45%

I think of the supposedly cut veterans, he has the greatest odds of returning. I say this due to the fact that he was the final unlockable character in Brawl, which may indicate that he simply had yet to be unlocked. Take that as you will.


Today was a somber day here on RTC.

 

[Deleted member]

Ice Climbers:

Want: 0%
Chance: 10%

Lucas:

Want: 35%
Chance: 40%

Wolf:

Want: 20%
Chance: 20%

Sorry if my numbers sound really low, but that's my opinion on the matter. The Ice Climbers were my Brawl punching bags because Pichu was gone.

 

[FalKoopa]

To tell the truth, that section was far more important for an "in the moment" look than it is for legacy, so I'm not quite sure how we'll handle it. Over the coming fall I intend to write a few posts analyzing the trends and history of our results that will provide posterity with a summary of what transpired here.

I actually have every single Chance and Want chart saved on my computer. If you want it, give me a call.

 

[Zwzchow]

RIP Ice Climbers

Ice Climbers

Want: 100%
OG Cute Tag team
Chance 30%
Chances are very slim ever since the leak came out. And Sakurai mentioned that he had difficulty putting him in. I hope he can find some way later and put them as DLC. Besides they were probably planned (with Chorus Men) with Polar bear and sneaky spirits, just that they couldn't fit them in and then had to unfortunately axe them (

Wolf
Want: 40%
Don't really have any sentiment value to them tho. But I don't really like cuts
Chance: 20%
...DLC?

Lucas
Want: 70%
That comic boosted my want (ah the feels)
Chance: 20%
Same with Wolf :/

 

[Toxicroaker]

Ice Climbers: 50% May or may not be in.
Want: 90% I hate playing as and against them, but they are unique and have been in since melee.

Wolf: 25% Not very likely.
Want: 100% The only spacie that I'm good with.

Lucas: 25% Same boat as Wolf.
Want: 50% Eh, I don't care.

 

[The Light Music Club]

Wolf
Chance: 90% - I'm convinced he's in the last group of hidden characters
Want: 100% - Cuts are stupid, and he's important

Lucas
Chance: 20% - I think he's in a Roy situation. A clone that people liked, but Sakurai doesn't find quite needed.
Want: 100% - I have no connection to him, but he's a Smash Bros. Character

Ice Climbers
Chance: 80% - At least as an Ice Climber. But I really think Sakurai made it work. I know the FPS crap will make them hard to get in, but I don't think that was even necessary for the 3DS version. Sakurai added it because the main issue, the Ice Climbers, ended up working.

Want: 100% - A series shouldn't lose all characters from being playable. Rosalina and Luma shouldn't be replacing them either, that would just be idiotic on Sakurai's part. I don't even have much of a connection, heck I thought it was dumb to have them back in Brawl. But they are smash characters, and they are classic characters, they are more deserving than any of the newcomers except maybe Little Mac and Palutena and not Duck Hunt Dog.

 

[DarkKry4]

Ice Climbers

Chance - 5%
Want - 100%
They had a unique moveset. As much as i don't play them, seeing a unique playstyle removed is horrible

Lucas

Chance - 5%
Want - 40%
Meh

Wolf

Chance - 4%
Want - 80%
Better than Falco

 

[Turmalinium]

Ice Climbers
Chance: 10%
Want: 50%
Lucas
Chance: 25%
Want: 50%
Wolf
Chance: 50%
Want: 80%

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Nearly 1/2 a week before the last full week of the speculation period. I'll try to make my predictions as short and swanky as possible.

Ice Climbers
Chance: 55%: I see many people pointing at the 3DS CPU difficulties back from E3 2013 and their abscence from the CSS leak as indication of their cut. Given the game was announced back in 2013 and the roster was decided long into pre-production, just letting our pair of chilly Inuits part shoukd be decreased if they've had their programming fixed. Also, the Polar Bear is still in Smash Run, so there's some amount of in-game capital from their series counting as confirmed to us. Unless it was removed later due to being scrapped. It could go either way at this point.
Want: 100%: They've been in the game since Melee and reprise the duo niche of Smash Bros. They're way too unique to let go. Also, they've gained status as being the sole representative of their own franchise like Captain Falcon or Ness. IMO, if they want to take out the Climbers, they should have cut back some other Melee vets too. Oh, and them getting in also furthers the chances of the Chorus Men. Hey, they have that Sneaky Spirit now, yanowutimean?

Wolf
Chance: 55%: Unlike Falco, Wolf takes his own feral takeoff from the "space animal" moveset. In fact, I find it hard to call him a clone at all. He's also fills in some arbitrary villain cap that people seem to want fulfilled. There's really little reason to bring StarFox down to 2 if he's really in the way for being "too new."
Want: 95%: If I were Sakurai and wanted to cut either Falco or Wolf, I would choose Falco.At least there's more room to explore with Wolf than that pheasant we seem to be sticking around for seniority and competitive vantage's sake. (Also, I've heard things about many elements of Falco's gameplay incorporated into Greninja, but I'm sure that wouldn't be enough to hamper him down.)

Lucas
Chance: 25%: The little guy brought some unique standards. Other than that, he seems the most redundant out of the Brawl veterans. Sure, it's gonna suck bringing Mother down to only Ness. Though Lucas's spirit can still live through customization options. You know, that makes some incanonical sense considering he borrows his most diverse special, PK Freeze, from Kumatora IIRC and both Ness and Lucas have PK Starstorm from Popo.
Want: 5%: Out of the three characters we've rated today, the least negative impact would come from cutting Lucas. Sure, this is likely a Falco predicament, but he only has like 1 special and some other quirks making him stand out. Other than that, I have no personal attachment to him. Hopefully we'll get Mother 3 on the VC to change that.

I could probably go into much more detail and polish my arguments, but I don't feel it's necessary here. A big question that's been alluding our radar is whether or not we should be clearing slots maintained by veterans for more room for newcomers and returning veterans in future installments. Many fighting game franchises have to trim the fat eventually, but I admire how Smash has, for the most part, maintained the sovereignty of its characters. Sakurai had a chance to cut the branches of some of the more redundant (especially with the advent of customization and stat attributes) or relic veterans here, but it looks like this design initiative will be weaker than ever before.

 

[Deleted member]

Chance: 1%
Want: 90%
I hate the 3DS version, all it does is hold back the Wii U. Case in point: No Ice Climbers.


Chance: 5%
Want 70%
I don't care for him, but he is the last unlock in Brawl.


Chance: 1%
Want: 100%
Lucas, why do you have to go! One of my mains, I'll miss mocking your voice and owning with your aerials.

 

[JaidynReiman]

To tell the truth, that section was far more important for an "in the moment" look than it is for legacy, so I'm not quite sure how we'll handle it. Over the coming fall I intend to write a few posts analyzing the trends and history of our results that will provide posterity with a summary of what transpired here.


Nah. I just kind of forgot to have the day about the "seemingly cut" veterans, so I added it in and extended things a bit. Sorry about that!

Alright, thanks. Isaac has been quite consistently in the Top 10, so if we have a Legacy one, we should probably average out how he and everyone else ranked throughout the whole thing in comparison to everyone else and that will be the "All-Time" top 10 or whatever. I'd be a bit miffed if Isaac was consistently in the top 10, but because of leaks ranking everyone low, and because we didn't re-rank anyone else left in the Top 10, that right at the end Isaac just gets shoved off it. Or any other characters we re-rank with very low scores now.

 

[ShrekItRalph]

Wolf and lucas: want 70%
Chance 15%
These 2 are among the least played character's in nrawp for me. While I would prefer them to come back, I see them as expendable.

Ice Climbers:
Chance 18%
Want 100%
My most wanted return character, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

 

[Ornstine]

Ice Climbers:

Chance - 15% There always suppose to be a starter character in both melee and brawl they were starters. In the 100% real leak they werent shown on the Character selection screen which makes me think they hit the big one because there never usually unlockables. Sakurai said he might cut them and it might of seem he went through with it. Theres always some random chance they are somehow unlockable but this doesnt seem likely in the least. I cant believe a melee rep got cut tho..

Want - 50% Always hated them with a passion. BUT never wanted them to be cut. I respect how unique they are very cool idea for a character one of the first most unique characters. If they must be cut to make room for characters like Ridley or K Rool then so be it. it was nice knowing ya ice climbers maybe Sakurai might solve your problem later and add you as DLC


Lucas

Chance - 30% Gemetsu said hes pretty much gone but gemetsu can be wrong proven by Robin and Lucina over Chrom. Why cut a mother rep tho? THERE WAS ONLY TWO! No ones replacing him and he wasnt even a clone so why? It doesnt really add up i guess mother didnt deserve 2 reps according to Sakurai but i still have slim hopes for Lucas but i dont see him really happening i mean he was a starter in brawl and i didnt see him in the leaked roster (he could be unlockable this time around but it seems very unlikely)

Want - 80% "Sigh" he was soooooo much better then Ness hate to see a series lose a rep and not gain anything making them have less characters then before its a slap in the face for the series. I used to not care for Lucas to later on seeing hes pretty great especially in PM so i would def miss him alot if he was gone but just like ice climbers if he has to go to make room for better newcomers then i guess i can have that sacrifice but i wont be too happy about it im gonna miss our PSI powered awkward Elvis haired kid


Wolf

Chance - 90% People who think wolf is out really gotta understand he was an unlockable and it took ALOT to unlock him outside the Subspace adventure mode. Hes the Starfox villain character and cant really be replaced ESPECIALLY when Krystal being deconfirmed. Squirtel and Ivysuar are gone cuz their are better Pokemon to replace them with (Greninja and Mewtwo) Snake was gone cuz metal gear solid wasn't going on any Nintendo consoles and Sakurai went with Mega Man and Pacman instead because they had history with Nintendo. Ice Climbers couldn't be implemented on 3DS as as Sakurai said they could cause problems and Lucas seemed pointless with Ness their because Sakurai probs thought we got are mother protagonist and one is enough. Wolf has no reasons to cut him being a would be semi clone has nothing to do with it we got damn dark pit and doc in and their gonna be full clones while wolf isnt even classified as a semi clone most of the time. Starfox wouldn't loose their villain only reason why mother is losing a rep while not gaining another is because its a very small series and there's 2 main protagonists while Starfox has a main protagonist (Fox), main sidekick (Falco) and villain/rival (Wolf) Wolf will not be cut mark my words

Want - 100% Always loved his character and is my second favorite Starfox character next to Falco. Was a great addiotion to Smash Bros and im all for more villains and rivals in smash was very fun to use in both brawl and PM looking forward to his inclusion in smash 4. If he was taken out i would probs miss him even more then i missed Mewtwo in melee.

 

[cephalopod17]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 20%
I believe not everyone in that leak is unlocked. Sakurai really likes them and the Polar Bear was seen. However, that picture was taken down.

Want: 100%
I never use them and when I first started playing Smash I did not like them. After reading into their history I realized people like them and that they are a unique character. They are a Smash staple and unlike Wolf and Lucas, if they are cut they have no game to be in again.

Wolf

Chance: 45%
He was added in Brawl late and is unlocked last. Unlike Ice Climbers, he is a major antagonist/rival from a semi-popular series. He might still be in.

Want: 100%
A series as big as Star Fox should not lose a easy to develop antagonist.

Lucas

Chance: 25%
Fairly popular, but out of the non-Snake, Ivysaur and Squirtle veterans he was the one I most expected to be cut. Mother is a dead series and Mother 3 was not even localized. Only reason he is more likely than the Ice Climbers is because he has not technical difficulties is his way.

Want: 100%
I have no personal attachment to him, but that would cut Mother content in half. Mother and Kid Icarus are at about the same level of sales, it would be a shame if Mother only had Ness this time around and Kid Icarus had Pit, Palutena and Dark Pit.

 

[JaidynReiman]

Ice Climbers
Chance: 5%, I don't think they're back. They've been starter characters TWICE, and Sakurai has implied he had problems getting Ice Climbers to work.
Want: 75%, I'd rather have them back then not, but I never liked playing as them.

Wolf
Chance: 95%, I'm open to the slim chance he's not playable. But I really, REALLY think he is.
Want: 100%, he only needs a couple of minor changes and he's fully original. I really like Wolf far more than Falco and Fox as well.

Lucas
Chance: 30%, Nintendo teased Mother 3 at E3, but it doesn't mean a whole lot. He COULD be in, but considering Ness' placement, I highly doubt he is. I think Ness would be right after Fox/Falco if he was playable. Mother is a very small franchise as well, and its never getting a new game (at best maybe remakes of the originals). I can understand only sticking with the franchise's most iconic character.
Want: 90%, I like Lucas a lot more than Ness. I hope he's DLC, because it doesn't look like he's in the main game this time around.

 

[Lucimar]

Chance=40%
It's a bit of an optimistic rating, but I'm still holding out hope. If he doesn't make it in then I hope he's at least DLC. To promote Mother 3's release on the virtual console perhaps?

Want=100%
He was my main in Brawl and I really really hope he return's. I've never played his game, but I've watched a playthrough and he's became one of my favorite characters and one of Nintendo's most developed characters.


Chance=60%
Probably the most likely out of the 3 to return. He was unlockable in Brawl and probably is in Sm4sh as well and the entire roster isn't known yet.

Want=100%
The only Star Fox game I've played was Star Fox 64 3D so I don't know a lot about his character but his play style was definitely my favorite out of the three Space Animals.


Chance=55%
I could see it go either way. They may get cut due to technical difficulty, but there's still the Polar Bear in Smash Run...

Want=100%
Though not one of my most played character's, they do have a fun play style. Them getting cut would mean a whole franchise getting cut of playable representation. It wouldn't really feel like Smash without them.

 

[Leafeon523]

I'm going to pull a BluePikmin today and just give chances:
Chance for all: 10%
I'm pretty sure that we've seen the entire roster. The leaker already lied once about more hidden characters, so I find it to be a stretch to believe him now. If Sakurai is teasing the possibility of more characters, he should just put his money where his Monado is and show off a character not included in the leak. But hey, set your expectations low so that you can be happy when they're wrong, am I right?

 

[FancySmash]

Hmm, I guess I'll try my hand at this at least once before the actual game comes out. Alright, let's get started.

Chance: 50% - This actually shocks me. Of all characters I expected to get the shaft; being Snake, Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Lucas (but we'll discuss him in a moment), I never considered the Ice Climbers. What with hearing the Chorus Men possibility, and even Rosalina and her Luma, I never expected the 3DS to have that much of an issue with implementing these guys. That said, I'm still shocked.
Want: 70% - I'll go on the record and say I probably want them more than I can admit, but I've never used them much personally. There would definitely be a hole where the Ice Climbers used to be. One that I might feel Rosalina took.


Chance: 10% - I'm gonna be honest. Back at the Gematsu leak, the only cut characters looked to be Snake, Squirtle, Ivysaur, and one Earthbound character. At that point I decided in myself that it would probably be Lucas (we still haven't seen any true confirmation on Ness or Jigglypuff at that note). I still think if we are to lose an Earthbound character, it would definitely be Lucas.
Want: 50% - Eh, I'm Indifferent on the matter of him. If he returns, I'll accept him with open arms. If he doesn't, well, perhaps as a customization Ness can get Lucas' variations of moves, such as switching PK Flash to PK Freeze. It will never fill the void for Lucas fans, but it's something. Right? OK, no not really, I know.


Chance: 50%
Falco came first, so he get's the invite before Wolf. I would prefer both back (Wolf being less of a Semi-Clone), but there's really not much I can say for Wolf. He just doesn't deliver the nostalgia that Falco gives some people.
Want: --% Let's hold of on this for a second.
Wow, out of Smash's entire roster, I never expected Wolf to be the one who brings out a back story. OK. First: I never truly had an experience with SSB64. I played it years after the 64's life span, but at that point I had already played Brawl and Melee, so it never worked for me (hence, I don't have a 64 main). Second: I've only ever played 2 Star Fox games. Neither were the SNES, or the 64. So, yeah. Take that for what you will. Bottom line, I started with Melee with no prior knowledge to Star Fox. When Brawl came out introducing Wolf to the roster, Wolf seemed to be a last minute entry. Regardless, he worked well, and gave another villain. However, being more familiar with Falco from Melee, and not having much of an impression from Star Fox to begin with, I'm leaving his want score at 50%. I'm torn to give him this, because I truly believe he deserves a spot. He just doesn't have a lasting effect on me.

 

[The Light Music Club]

I'm going to pull a BluePikmin today and just give chances:
Chance for all: 10%
I'm pretty sure that we've seen the entire roster. The leaker already lied once about more hidden characters, so I find it to be a stretch to believe him now. If Sakurai is teasing the possibility of more characters, he should just put his money where his Monado is and show off a character not included in the leak. But hey, set your expectations low so that you can be happy when they're wrong, am I right?

The leaker didn't lie, I think someone posed as the leaker. Plus we see the lock from the POTD in the leaked images, meaning that not all of the characters are unlocked.

 

[Burigu]

Ice Climbers:
Chance: 12.5%
Leaks claim them cut, that technical issue comment, things aren't looking right for this duo, there is still the polar bear so I am not discarting thim yet but bad news are more likely than good ones.

Want: 100%
I like them a lot, I don't see why hate them because of their brokeness, if they are really that powerful just ban them, at least you can use them in casual matches with items etc. They are unique and a part of Smash history.

Lucas
Chance: 10%
Aside of Squirtle, Ivysaur and Snake Lucas was in my eyes a strong contender to being cut, he is Japan only and Ness is internationally more relevant and also an original 12. If I remember correctly even Mother director said that the franchise isn't a priority at the moment I am not enterely sure about this.

Want: 60%
His game is great go now and play it! there are patches you know there aren't excuses. My want is a bit low because I see Mother alright with just Ness.
That said, I prefer him more than freaking clone like Dr. Mario I will give Dark Pit the benefit of doubt since apparently he has a staff, but if he is a full clone count him in the freaking clone boat with Dr. Mario

Wolf
Chance: 10%
Kind of in the same boat as Lucas, and next in the suspect department, I agree he is more original that Falco but apparently seniority is a factor. Low chance because of leaks too.

Want: 10%
Don't kill me, I am not that into Star Fox, Fox, Wolf, Panther for some names this series is so original

 

[TCT~Phantom]

All chance 85%
All want 100%
I think that we are getting more than 4-5 characters, with 7 newcomers and these guys. For the record after thinking it over, here is what I think our final roster will have as our last 10 non leak characters
Ice climbers
Lucas
Wolf
Ridley
K Rool
Chorus Men
Mewtwo
Sceptile
Dixie (clone)
Impa (clone)

 

[a smart guy]

Ice Climbers:
Chance: 70% Technical issues 2 years ago + Not being starters =/= Not in game. Polar bear + Melee veteran = Probably in game. And no, I don't trust the leaker, he already said he likes to troll us.
Want: 10% That being said, I don't really like them. Too obscure and way too gimmicky.

Lucas:
Chance: 35% Honestly, he's not looking that great, but I don't understand why Sakurai would cut semi-clones. They're easy to put in the game.
Want: 50% I don't have any connection to him (I don't like RPGs in general) but I want him for the fans.

Wolf:
Chance: 60% He's an easy semi-clone with a worldwide fan-base. He's probably getting in.
Want: 70% He was my brother's main, so I would like for him to return.

 

[Chandeelure]

-Ice Climbers:
Chances: 10%
Want: 0%

-Wolf:
Chances: 15%
Want: 60%

-Lucas:
Chances: 15%
Want: 100%

 

[Da Black Rabbit]

Lucas

Chance: 50% I think his chances for returning are good. I felt his was one of the best clones in the game in the sense that he didn't feel much like Ness at all. He felt like he had more power and stronger smashes. I liked his air attacks more AND unlike most clones, not all of his specials where exact copies of the base character. I guess this is more of reasons to want him...so...

Want: 100% I don't even main him but I would love it if he returned and think it would be a disservice to cut him. I remember reading his game was popular in Japan and it has some really loyal fans to make a fan translation of Mother 3.

Wolf

Chance: 50% Wolf is another example of how to do a clone right. Different smash attacks, different air attacks. Why just throw away that move set? He's also the Villain rep for Starfox. I think he is just one of the later unlock-able characters.

Want: 100% My cousin was a Wolf/Metaknight main. I hated those characters. But I still want them back. As much as I thought Wolf's forward smash was too good, I would be sad he didn't return. He is unique while feeling like a Starfox character. I think they did a great job with his move set and shouldn't throw it and bringing back direct clone....characters....like....ugh.....not even going to go there.

Ice Climbers

Chance: 20% With the 3DS allegedly making an unknown character difficult to implement my guess would be having 8 ICs on screen was too taxing. Yeah, they could be unlockable on the Wii U but then that alienates 3DS users. So I am not as hopeful as I am for Lucas and Wolf.

Want: 100% Wasted uniqueness. The inclusion of clones stings even more when you take away completely unique characters like Ice Climbers. As an LoZ fan, and someone who mained Toon Link in Brawl, I would trade him for Ice Climbers.

 

[Pureownege75]

Ice Climbers​

Chance: 5%
Not looking good for them. Unless for some crazy reason they are unlockable, which would be weird for a character who was in the initial roster for the past two entries, then they are gone.

Want: 100%
I never mained them, but they were a character I thoroughly enjoyed. I can live with Lucas and Wolf getting cut because they are pseudo-clones, but Ice Climbers are SO unique, and I don't want them gone. Hopefully they can iron out the bugs and get them in as DLC. If not, I'm certain they will return in Smash 5, when the technical problems aren't an issue

Lucas​

Chance: 5%
Once again, he has to be unlockable or else he's gone. Wouldn't be surprised if this is Nintendo's way to try and get people to shut up about Mother 3

Want: 50%
Similar to Ice Climbers, in that I played him a fair amount, definitely more-so than Ness. That said, the series isn't going any where any time soon, and I personally don't care about Mother 3, or the series in general (I have Earthbound on the VC... I should really get around to that

Wolf​

Chance: 50%
Definitely has the best chance of the unconfirmed veterans. Wolf was a very late unlockable in Brawl, so (if) he's back, he'd probably be that again. His series doesn't really need the 3 reps though, and I always believed he was one of the most likely cuts along with Snake and Lucas

Want: 35%
Would have definitely Falco getting cut over Wolf if someone HAD to go because he is less of a clone. Not to mention the game needs more villains. That said, I never really played him, so I won't miss him as much

 

[Jdaster64]

Chances for all three: 30%. I don't think any are terribly likely, new All-Star info notwithstanding, and their individual likelihood are easily within 5-10% of each other, so I opted to average.

Want for Lucas: 100%. I was disappointed when the leak seemed to say he was cut. I definitely preferred Ness, but Lucas's ground game was so satisfying. Plus, I'm a big fan of the MOTHER series in general. I won't be devastated if he doesn't return, but IMO, he's an unfortunate loss.

Want for IC's: 50%. Hate to see a two-timer that's so unique not make it in, even though I rarely pick them up myself.

Want for Wolf: Personally? Nil, since I hated playing the spacies and disliked going up against them. But since personal bias aside, he and Lucas are probably equivalently expendable as representation, I'll say 40%, just because it wouldn't really be fair to get one and not the other.

 

[StrangeMann]

Chances for Wolf and Lucas:35%
Want for wolf/Lucas: Abstain
The leftover slots on the roster could be filled in with characters thought to be cut, though it's more likely we would get Newcomers. Both of these characters were also semi-clones from series I don't really play, so I don't mind either way to their inclusion...
On the Other hand...
Chances for Ice Climbers:30%
Oh no....
Nooo.....
NOOO!!!!
Want:100%
These characters shouldn't be cut after two games. After the teasing to their inclusion(polar bear, Pic of the day) has been seen.
NO DOUBT were they planned, but most likely cut mid-development along with chorus men. The fact we havn't seen their stage though suggests that they wont return after getting their stage in two previous installments...

 

[PacManiac]

Ice Climbers:
Chance: 40%

The Ice Climbers have had it rough recently. They have had no mention but Saurai stating they were hard to incorporate onto the 3DS hardware. And we already have 2-character gameplay in Rosalina & Luma. Maybe this means that they solved the Ice Climber Issue? Still, it seems harsh to take a series of ALL it's representation. I mean, Smash is the only reason Ice Climbers are still semi-relevant.

Want: 35%

I never had much of a relation to the Ice Climbers except when I chose Random (CRAP! I got Ice Climbers! Oh, come on!). They have been here since Melee, and they are the sole representative(s) of their series, or, for a better term, their one game.

Lucas:
Chance: 45%

According to the leak, Lucas is not returning. But the leaker came out and said that the DLC part is fake, so this opens up for more characters, including Lucas. I don't see much reason to cut Lucas, he is only a semi-clone, and they can spice him up by adding PK Love as his Final Smash. I don't see why people call him a clone. He is a less mobile, slow, but a MASSIVE power machine when used right, at least compared to Ness.

Want: 100%

Lucas was my main in Brawl, and I would be heartbroken to see him gone. I hear a few other people main Lucas too, so like if you want him in Smash 4. Come on Sakurai, just reveal Lucas already!!!!

Wolf:
Chance: 70%

You probably noticed I'm being pretty generous with my percents. But, this is my opinion. Wolf is the antagonist for Star Fox, and he's less of a clone than Falco by a mile. He's a spacial character, which I think Smash needs more of. Also, villains. Smash needs some of those too.

Want: 35%

I never really liked or played as Wolf. I checked my stats recently on Brawl, and I've played with him less than 10 times. Though, he would add a villian, spacial character, and keep the Star Fox series at a decent 3 reps.

 

[Weeman]

Ice Climbers​

Chance: 25%
Want: 80%

Lucas​

Chance: 35%
Want: 90%

Wolf​

Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

THAT'S MY SECONDARY!!,WHAT ARE YOU DOING SAKURAI???!!!!!​

 

[Thereallucario]

I hate this rating day, I really do. I have to finally fess up and chose who of the five is in the remaining space on the roster, and to me its really hard to do.

Lucas chance: 15%
Want:85%

He is one of the few that im kind of confidant has the lowest chance, namely because it makes no sense for him not to be an earlier unlocked character. Why in the world would he be one of the final five (ish). On the want hand I feel as though the mother series needs to keep this guy, because he really deserves it.

Wolf chance: 60%
Want: 90%

My only question for you is why would they cut him? It makes no sense.

Ice climbers chance: 30%
Want 50%

Oh ice climbers, how simple leaks have bested you. I don't believe leaks claims without legit proof first, so I still gave them a decent chance. Though when it comes down to it though, it makes no sense for them to be one if the last unlocks, They really are not that kind of material. Oh well, (if they are cut for the reasons in the leak) at least they are first in line in dlc for the wii u right?

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Ice Climbers - 35%

I don't quite feel like they're out of the running yet, but things definitely aren't looking so good for them...

Want - 100%

As annoying as those chaingrabs are that's not enough for me to hate one of the most unique characters in the series, especially after they've been in two games already.

Lucas - 40%

A bit higher due to the lack of technical difficulty (though I still find it odd how they'd manage to get even more complicated characters like Rosalina and Luma on the roster and yet not the Climbers, so it's not that big of a blow to them).

Want - 50%

I do like Lucas, I just don't care about him as much as most other veterans. If he is cut, then there are other certain characters that I'm glad returned over him.

Wolf - 45%

Similar boat to Lucas, but a bit higher due to not being a clone. I feel like he might stay if only because of how much he differs from Fox and Falco, whereas Lucas doesn't differ from Ness quite as much when compared to that.

Want - 95%

Though I could live without him, I like using all three Starfox characters and I really like Wolf's personality. Would hate to see him go.

 

[Kenith]

Factoring in DLC:

Ice Climbers Chance: 85%.
Lucas Chance: 85%.
Wolf Chance: 95%.

===

 

[Arcanir]

Ice Climbers
Chances: 20%
I never thought I'd be considering that these two are cut, much less giving them this low a score. With the leak saying they're gone, them being missing from the starter/eshop list, and also the supposed problems on the 3DS with them, things are not looking good for them. They do however have the Polar Bear, so maybe there is a single ray of hope for them.

Want: 90%
I'm really hoping they're back, they were very unique characters that were interesting to play with and I'm sure many would want to see them return.

Lucas
Chances: 10%
Same thing as the Ice Climbers, except he's in a worse position. On top of this leak saying he's gone and him also being missing from the starter/eshop list, Ness is also shown with the single character series, which means that Mother/Earthbound will only be represented by Ness. Unless Ness somehow shifts positions, he very well may be gone.

Want: 90%
I loved playing as him in Brawl, so like with the Ice Climbers, I'd hate to see him leave.

Wolf
Chances: 35%
Of the three, I'd say he's in the better position. He was the last unlockable back in Brawl, and if we're working under the assumption that the roster isn't complete, he very well could still be there and he hasn't been discovered yet. Plus, he doesn't have the limitations that the IC have, nor is his series among the single character ones like Lucas, so there's still hope for him.

Want: 85%
Not as attached to him as the other two, but I do enjoy the character the most of the Star Fox cast.

 

[Groose]

I'm going to pull a BluePikmin today and just give chances:

Rating only a character's chance is actually called a @PK_Wonder. He did it first and longest.

Ice climbers
Lucas
Wolf
Ridley
K Rool
Chorus Men
Mewtwo
Sceptile
Dixie (clone)
Impa (clone)

I wish I could share your optimism.

Factoring in DLC:

Ice Climbers Chance: 85%.
Lucas Chance: 85%.
Wolf Chance: 95%.

===

I'm sorry, but I can't count this towards the average. We only rate the chances of something happening on the actual cartridge.

All Three: 10% chance
I think we've seen all of the characters. Yes, I am aware there was a lock on All-Star. I don't care about that. I find it far more likely that the E3 video was a conglomerate of cuts, and that the full roster was shown in a different cut than when the lock was on All-Star. I will admit, however, that if I'm wrong, this trio would probably all get in. I just doubt that I'm wrong.

Ice Climbers Want: 50%
I don't really care if they're in or not. I love to hate on them, so I would miss that little part of Smash if they were taken out. Still, they're among my least-favorite characters to play as, and I wouldn't be disappointed if it turns out they didn't make it.

Wolf and Lucas Want: 0%

DAY OVER

ONE LAST DAY... LET'S FINISH IN STYLE!​

 

[andimidna]

Gotta go fast

IC
Got more doubts since the Chorus rate, whoops, guess I lied about rating them the same.
Chance: 15%
They'd probably be there already, they were starters in Brawl iirc
If they're being finished so late, then just add them later as DLC along with the Chorus Kids.
Want: 40%
I was going to give them 100% until I realized I was glad they seemed to be gone for now. Guess I'm just greedy for more newcomers. Even if they're clones (Impa and Dixie!!)

Lucas
Unlike the ICs, I would understand him being unlockable, or at least find it more likely.
But Gematsu did already say his cut was being considered so I wasn't caught off guard when he didn't show up on the Unknown Renders Leak. Much like how Sakurai's e3 2013 statement prepared me for ICs getting cut, I still thought they were basically shoo-ins due to already trying to get added so early, but who's to say they've succeeded yet?
Oh yea, I'm rating Lucas now.
Chance: 19%
Want: 35%
I like clones... newcomer clones, and clones that I liked before they were added as clones. Characters like Dr. Mario (at least he wasn't in Brawl) go against every rule I have against clones
1. I don't care for them when they're the same character
2. I don't need them to return, they're just last-minute clones, replace them w/ other last-minute clones to give somebody else a spotlight
3. If I didn't like them before, not being unique will get them nowhere for me... I won't like or hate them anymore... just neutral.
I didn't know who Lucas was until I unlocked him, and don't need him to return. At least he's not Ninten though, who basically just looks like Ness. That's why he's not a 0.


Wolf
Unlike these 2, there was nothing pointing to this cut, and I have no idea why it would happen.
He was unique enough. Not that unique. He had a different playstyle, but it was based off the same moves/concepts. Like a semi-clone, with more semi and less clone. Which I have no problem with honestly.
I'm fine with his addition, but unlike most, Fox has never interested me at all. He was pretty much the only character I didn't get hyped about looking at the pictures on the official page at e3 2013. None of the Starfox characters appeal to me so far. Fox and Falco were really good in Melee, and Falco was really good in Brawl, but eh. I prefer characters like Marth, Zero Suit Samus, and Toon Link. Are they a category? I like those playstyles.
Oh yea, Wolf.
Chance: 28%
Definitely the most likely of the 3. There's no reason to think he's gone except the incomplete leak. I think we'll get Mewtwo, Ridley, Dixie, Impa, and a 5th slot that will either go to Wolf, K Rool, Mach Rider, or a Mii slot.
He was the last addition to Brawl... I think, so him being a low priority unlockable makes a ton of sense. And there's also that Impa/Wolf Leak... which looks really fake but y'never know, right? Maybe it was edited to look fake...
Oh, the denial...
Want: 39%
Look at Lucas mostly. And also if the Impa/Wolf Leak was real I'd be happy, more for the long-awaited Zelda representation, but eh... yea.

Poor veterans, sorry, at least others gave you the respect you deserve.


Sanic speed

 

[Erimir]

Ice Climbers

The leaks are against them, Sakurai's comments are against them. IF the roster is not final, however, I don't totally trust what we've heard. It's a lot easier to know a character is in than out - the various leakers might have simply not seen the ICs despite them being included. Even so, the chances are against them, and it's also quite possible that they'd become DLC in order to give them time to get them to work.

AND before anyone says "They've had a whole year to work on them!" The thing is that they had a LOT of things to work on. If it quickly became apparent that it would take a lot of time to get the ICs to work, one way to deal with it would be to put them as low priority and work on other things, planning to return to them later if there's time.

Ice Climbers chances: 8%

Ice Climbers want: 52%
I guess there's tradition. But I don't particularly like playing as or against them, nor do I have a connection to the character.

Lucas chances: 10%
Not looking great for him either, but at least there's no technical difficulty.

Lucas want: 72%
He's one of my mains in Brawl, so I like him.

Wolf chances: 10%
Wolf want: 72%
Basically the same as for Lucas.

 

[Groose]

Ice Climbers
28.87% chance
71.03% want
Lucas
25.38% chance
61.48% want
Normally I try to give every character commentary, but the results for these two are so easily comparable that I think I'll save myself some time. Both of these guys, whose used to be considered very, very likely, did relatively poorly in chance, and their want scores weren't even all that special. Veterans typically score in the 80% range (just above our most-wanted newcomers), but support for these two has begun to fade. The Ice Climbers did manage to beat Lucas in both regards, but that can probably be chalked up to their uniqueness and tenure.


Wolf
40.29% chance
71.04% want
On the other hand, Wolf deserves a commentary of his own. He scored much higher in the others in chance, and his want score even managed to top the Ice Climbers (albeit by less than a hundredth of a percent). It looks like the Star Fox fans really showed up in full force today. Finally, I have to say this--I've been flashing back to pre-Brawl quite a bit the last few days, and I'm just imagining how much lower his want score would be back then. Remember the reign of Krystal?

Here we go. The Big Three. Looks like it's time to discuss the trinity again, eh? One last time... one last rating.
We dreamed of rating the world's most powerful Pokemon. And we've done it many times already. But have we succeeded?
Bigger is always better. And a certain dragon is pretty darn big. How about his chances? Are they big?
Our Most Wanted Newcomer. My Most Wanted Newcomer. Can the King defend his Krown?

Mewtwo.
K. Rool.
Ridley.
Rate Their Chances.​

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

All chance scores account for post-release DLC.

Mewtwo chance - 65%
He's got a good shot.

Want - 80%
In my top 3, if he's to be counted as a newcomer.

K. Rool chance - 35%
I don't think he has a great shot, but it could happen.

Want - 10%
This is a result of complete circumstance. Thing is, I want Dixie. Dixie is actually my most-wanted unrevealed newcomer right now, so obviously I would rather not see K. Rool instead. However, were Dixie to already be in (let's say Dixie makes it into this game and we rate K. Rool for the next Smash), I'd be all for K. Rool.

Ridley chance - 80%
This dragon doesn't die. Every piece of evidence that might be put against him falls. The teasing has lasted too long.

Want - 80%
20% wanting the fans to be happy, 20% because I would genuinely like to see him in, and 40% because I want Metroid to get the representation it deserves and to know that the series will live on after the awful Other M.