Snake and Lucas have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated these two, check to see what you've said on their days!
Snake. Snake. Snaaaaaaaaake...
Chance: 5%
I feel lazy, so how about I quote myself again?
While Sakurai said that he hasn't planned to cut anyone, he also said that he doesn't have the time to bring every character in Smash back into SSB4. This mean that cuts are inevitable.
Kojima messing with others is definitely something that he is known for, but how about I play devil's advocate. Now, he smiled when he said this quote; this means that he knows something we don't and possibly that he could be in Smash. However, what if Kojima didn't expect a question like this during that livestream? What if he smiled at the irony or something? It's possible that he is going to give no hope to Snake returning to make his return more glorious, but he could possibly not be in the game.
Now, why is Snake at a low score?
Snake isn't that obvious to me as Sonic is. If 3rd parties are going to be a thing in future games, Sonic is practically guaranteed; Snake can't match to the hype, fandom, and demand Sonic has. Remember why Brawl was delayed? It was to put Sonic in the game. Snake was put in by personal request and wasn't demanded prior to E3 2006. Fans enjoyed his inclusion and are demanding for him to return; this helps in his favor. However, this barely changes the fact that he is in the most danger of getting cut.
Konami doesn't have the best relationship with Nintendo right now it seems like. They outright dismissed the Wii U and aren't putting any retail or digital games on the system. Oh wait... they are! But... they are old-school Castlevania games. Heck, a Castlevania game on the 3DS got an HD remake on the Xbox 360 and PS3... but not the Wii U. Same case with MGSV; every system is getting this game... except for the Wii U. Nintendo, on the other hand, are struggling right now with the Wii U. Snake would be a massive double-edged sword. While Snake will get mature fans to buy the Wii U, owners of the Wii U could potentially buy an Xbox or PlayStation to play MGSV, which would hurt Nintendo in the process. From a business standpoint, this is rather risky. While Sakurai can put in Snake on his own accord, I bet that there could be outside influences that are probably going to stand in and prevent his inclusion.
Lastly, we don't know how many 3rd party characters will get in. If there are 4, Snake will definitely get in. If there are 3, then he is absolutely screwed. Why? Because of Pac-Man. I bet that Pac-Man would be at a higher priority than Snake is. Namco is working on the game and I bet that they would like to get represented in Smash in some form and Pac-Man has a great amount of demand to him. Pac-Man is nearly inevitable at this point; he is most likely going to get in (90%), meaning Snake has to hope for 4 slots. Since Sakurai said that there won't be too many 3rd party characters, 3 seems like a safe bet.
Overall, I cannot see Snake get in Smash at all.
To add on, not seeing Snake in the Direct is very, very concerning. As such, I had to adjust my rating. With Ground Zeroes being released recently, you think that Sakurai would confirm him... but he didn't. Granted, it would make sense that he didn't because that would be promoting a game on rival consoles. It's important to note that the Special Flag item is in this game, which would most likely be Namco's equivalent to the Assist Trophy where Namco characters are summoned. This helps Pac-Man's case even more so as it shows that Namco would definitely receive higher priority than Konami (though, that fact was a given) (Pac-Man currently has a 93% from me). One minor thing to note is that Snake is no longer the Brawl veteran that is in the most danger of getting cut; Squirtle and Ivysaur are as Transformations are removed (Snake's 8% to Squirtle's and Ivysaur's 7%). Also, I am not lowering my score because Sheik is now using grenades.
EDIT: One more thing that I want to mention is that we have seen a recent trend with the newcomers. Characters like Wii Fit Trainer, Greninja, and Rosalina are all uprising characters that have a future with Nintendo. The same can be said for revived newcomers like Palutena and the confirmed Little Mac as well as possible newcomers like Shulk and Chrom. These characters are not only popular, but they can promote their games on Nintendo consoles. This same thing is extended to Sonic; he was in Brawl, but he definitely has a future with Nintendo and he can help promote the Wii U. Snake doesn't really have a future with Nintendo and putting him in would promote a rival console, which wouldn't be good at all when the Wii U is in a troubled state.
I will give Snake one more chance. If he isn't revealed at E3 this year, I am considering him to be done and just give him a 1% chance.
Well, it looks like Sakurai has proven me wrong. When I said that last statement, I was sure that we would get a summer release. Now that the game has been delayed, August is now his last stand. If he isn't confirmed then, he's done.
I'm more skeptical on Snake because of how the Pac-Man reveal was handled and how Sakurai has been promoting it. Sakurai has been emphasizing the battle between Mario, Sonic, Mega Man, and Pac-Man, four of gaming's biggest icons. The fact that they are doing this and Snake is absent? I'm highly questioning if he did make it in the game or not.
I might be proven wrong in the August Direct, so we'll see then.
Want: 0%
Let me quote myself again:
I just want to reiterate something. I don't hate Snake. I like Snake. He is a freaking awesome character and I absolutely love his moveset! I still play as him sometimes in Brawl! Regardless... I want to see him go. When it comes to 3rd party characters, my mindset is to have 2 permanent members on the roster, being Sonic and Mega Man, and maybe have 1 or 2 rotate in between (if Bomberman makes it in, make that 3 permanent members).
Now, there are a multitude of reasons why I don't want Snake in Smash:
1. In a game about Nintendo's All-Stars, he isn't one at all and he is more of a Sony character. I can heavily justify Sonic and Mega Man; they both absolutely deserve to be in Smash and they are like Nintendo characters despite not being owned by them. Pac-Man, I can't justify too much, but he still has a rich history with Nintendo. Snake barely has any connection with Nintendo and yet he got in. It makes me mad as it contradicts what this game is about.
2. Snake getting cut gives me a good reason to go back and play Brawl. I was mystified when Mewtwo was cut as he shouldn't have been. The others, however, were fairly predictable cuts. If I want to play as Dr. Mario, Young Link, Pichu, and Roy, it gives me a good reason to play Melee. Snake getting cut would give me more of a reason to still play Brawl.
3. Let's say that what Kojima says is true and that Snake is not in the game. If that is the case, then I definitely don't want him to return. In Brawl, Sonic's addition not only delayed the game, but it resulted in Mewtwo and Roy getting cut. When I found this out, I was upset, but I didn't mind it in the end because Sonic was a character that I was wanting, hoping, and expecting to get in Smash. If Snake gets in Smash, he may potentially delay the game and might cut veterans that shouldn't be cut or result in removing a newcomer that we would have been looking forward to. The payoff to bring him back is not worth it in the long run.
4. I have a dream. My dream is Bomberman getting in Smash and fighting against Luigi, Mario, and Sonic, my childhood heroes. If Snake got cut, the pathway for Bomberman getting in Smash slightly opens for him. I've waited for 15 years for him to get into Smash; I want this wait to end already. Why did you die on me, Hudson? ;-;
That is why I want Snake to get cut. It's critical for me that he is. I will sympathize with the Snake fans and mains, but I want him gone.
And done.
Lucas
Chance: 50%
The Gematsu leak is looking more and more real. Lucas wouldn't be entirely in danger if he wasn't mentioned in it. As it stands, I think that it could go either way.
Between the two Mother boys, Ness always had the edge to me. No, not because he is a part of the Original 12, but he is often seen as the face or icon of Mother to some people. He introduced Mother and EarthBound to a large group of people who absolutely haven't heard of this series. What also helps his case is the fact that people can now play EarthBound on the Wii U's Virtual Console, meaning that more people can experience his game and story.
Mother 3 has been demanded to come over to America time and time again, yet nothing has really been done (except for it getting mentioned at E3's Digital Event, but does that really mean anything?). People in America don't have the blessing of playing this game unless they import it or play it via emulator. So, he is more unknown than Ness. Heck, I would even argue that Lucas is more unknown than Shulk at this point.
I will put him at 50/50 nearly because of the Gematsu leak. I wouldn't be surprised if he made it in. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't.
For the record, if we rated Ness, I would give him a 100% in chance. There is no doubt in my mind that he would return.
Want: 0%
I would be upset for the people who main him and the loss of Mother 3 content, but I wouldn't care if he got cut. I have Ness and that's good enough for me!
If Mother 3 was released on the Virtual Console, you bet I would get it! As it stands... eh.
At least play EarthBound once in your life.
Robin Prediction: 14.48%
The scales have been tipped in Chrom's favor. Despite this, he still has a saving grace in his uniqueness, something that Chrom lacks in or barely has.
Lucina Prediction: 9.93%
So she's challenging her fate, eh? Things are about to get ugly...
Hopefully, we will be given some sympathy tomorrow.
Also, I made a Fire Emblem chart. Better late than never to make one I suppose.
) gives him a wide variety of options to draw from. And then there are the Djinn. He's just a character with a lot of potential for uniqueness. Also, I imagine him getting into Smash would drastically increase the chances for more Golden Sun games, which would just make me wet myself with happiness P:
s of Nintendo's history.
