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[ShrekItRalph]

#Raymonday

But probably Shulk.

 

[a Link to the Forums]

Holy cow! After all this hype surounding the newcvomer, I completely forgot about PotD.

I love that Rayman is getting representation as well though a bit bummed he isn't playable but honestly, what were the chances of that.

Rayman for Smash 5

 

[Rockaphin]

Shulk is my guess. Well maybe more like everyone else's.

..... yay.

 

[YoshiandToad]

I was going to say Shulk like everyone else. However...I'm going to suggest ANOTHER psychic RPG character is going to show up alongside him in that trailer be it Ness, Lucas or even...MEWTWO.

(I want to say Isaac too but he seems like a long shot)

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Shulk is my prediction. It just feels right.

 

[JaidynReiman]

I wanna say Isaac. Can I say Isaac? I mean, I really want it to be Isaac. Or Ridley. Or someone else.


*sigh* Unfortunately I think its just Shulk. I do wish we could get a non-leaked character, though.

 

[FalKoopa]

I predict Ray because we got Ray-man.

Anyways, My bets:

 

[Sonic Poke]

Same as above!!!

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Shulk or ridley or mewtwo

One of them for my bet

Oh another prediction i think a veteran will be confirmed with shulk if its him. (Because im sure palutena and miis are the only ones with 12 specials.)

 

[Captain Toad]

Wow, I've been away for what seems like an eternity...

I'm expecting Shulk in all honesty, or Chrom.

I would love to say I'm confidently placing my bets on Isaac like some of the people above, but I'm not very confident. He'll probably stay an assist.

Other characters I wouldn't mind seeing get in, if the leak ends up being just a very close fake, would be Dixie (She's cool), Ridley and Waddle Dee (Please don't hate me, I know how controversial Waddle Dee is.)

 

[SmasherMaster]

K Rool, Shulk, Chorus Men or Ridley

 

[Xenigma]

YESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYES

(Amusingly, last time we rated Robin I gave a 0% because I thought for certain Gematsu meant he/she was out. Boy, am I happy to be wrong on that front.)

 

[colder_than_ice]

PLOT TWIST!!!!!!!

I still wanted Chrom in but I can live with this, Robin just looks amazing. I'm actually very happy that the Gematsu leak is not absolute, but I think it's a little ridiculous that Fire Emblem has gotten four reps. Seeing Captain Falcon was a nice touch.

 

[FalKoopa]

Long live the Sal.

The leak is DEAD!

Chrom, deemed 2nd most likely is DISCONFIRMED.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Looks like we have a lot of rerating to do now that the Gematsu-Knows-All World Order has fallen...

 

[cephalopod17]

Well Chrom has fallen and Robin (And Lucina) have been confirmed. Gematsu was wrong.

 

[TitanTeaTime]

80% chance?

My ass!

 

[Deleted member]

The scales have been tipped! I didn't think that this would happen!

Perhaps we should rerate Shulk and the Chorus Men?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Well, Gematsu may be alive, I believe in Chorus Men and Shulk still.
#SneakySpirit
Oh Robin? Gematsu made me lose hope in Robin to a degree, so now my hype is maximum. I only took her out of my sig in order to show off Captain Toad and Sceptile, so yeah.

 

[Chandeelure]

It's going to be Lucina, Robin and Captain Falcon.

I'm the winner.

 

[Starbound]

So:

Robin confirmed. (16.98%)
Lucina confirmed. (17.72%)
Chrom deconfirmed. (88.82%)
Gematsu isn't real. (90.35%)
Only Gematsu newcomers deconfimed. (49.30%)

 

[Erimir]

C-C-C-COMBO BREAKER!

Chrom is a Final Smash!

Gematsu is dead! Speculation is alive!

I think this changes the landscape as much as E3... We trusted the Gematsu leak far too much - he might've had some inside information at some point. I mean, he would've been very lucky so far if not. But it's not totally accurate and not comprehensive.

I think we pretty much have to do a full Top Ten rerate. Fortunately, I think we can safely say no more Fire Emblem characters are getting in.

 

[Toxicroaker]

The heck??? WHY??? NOOOOOOOOO!... The only extremely likely newcomer on my list was deconfirmed and we got not only one, but two characters that I didn't want... I'm fairly ok with Robin, but Lucina? Really?...

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Well, with the Gematsu leak torn to shreds I think this thread is going to get fun again! Also, I think the Rayman trophy adds some nice incentive for some more Dragon Quest love...

Luckily for our egos our rating Lucina was only half confirmed as she appears to be an impressive alt costume (with a few minor animation tweaks)... or is she a Roy clone? I think we'll have to wait and see what's going on there before we start playing about with her confirmation... which means we can somewhat justify our low rating as it is a bit foggy...


I've missed this place!

 

[Burigu]

I just have to say I have got my number 1 Palutena and my number 2 Lucina can lot of people really say that?

 

[Xenigma]

Some quick initial thoughts:

- The trailer was a bit confusing, but Lucina has a newcomer page and banner, so that's good enough to say she's at the very least her own character. How unique she ends up being remains to be seen.

- Gematsu as a strict prediction is deconfirmed, but Gematsu isn't necessarily invalid either. Chrom still appears in the game which now has a proven strong Awakening presence, we did see a Sneaky Spirit in Smash Run, and while we didn't get Shulk today, the Monolith retweet remains conspicuous. The information is clearly outdated but it still seems to be at least partially valid and deserves some degree of credibility, albeit more scrutiny as well.

- We're due for a bunch of rerates of top characters...again.

- As a fan of Awakening and F-Zero, holy cow this is like Christmas in July.

 

[Groose]

Guess what? No satisfaction today. We're going to have to chill first! Because of the unexpected announcement and the crippling blow to Gematsu, we're having a cool down day. See you bright and early tomorrow morning for Lucina and Robin satisfaction!

...mixed thoughts myself. Robin is cool, but Lucina is a bit... ugh.

 

[Erimir]

Lucina has got to have some stuff to differentiate her from Marth, right?

 

[Tikivoy]

Something tells me today's trailer will be the most split we'll see people on the next "Most deflating/Most hyping" day.
On one hand, Gematsu debunked for everyone who was wanting to see different newcomers.
On the other hand, Chrom fans got slapped, Chorus Kid fans now have RH competition, and Shulk fans only have retweets as a support for him.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Lucina not shown...

It's odd to say this given how I previously gave it such a low chance, but I'm on team Alt Costume!




And Sakurai's right!! When are you getting a new game?!

*hopes this is a hint that one's in development*

 

[TitanTeaTime]

Something tells me today's trailer will be the most split we'll see people on the next "Most deflating/Most hyping" day.
On one hand, Gematsu debunked for everyone who was wanting to see different newcomers.
On the other hand, Chrom fans got slapped, Chorus Kid fans now have RH competition, and Shulk fans only have retweets as a support for him.

I'm looking at your name, avatar and signature and suddenly I feel really bad about Chrom's disconfirmation
Like, genuinely bad. Sorry

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Lucina has got to have some stuff to differentiate her from Marth, right?

Final Smash looks different.

 

[Deleted member]

ANNOUNCEMENT: The first Directory post ran out of room at last! It's too big! So, the second post will finally be used!
Cooldown has been added to the Directory.

My overall brief thoughts:

• I'm glad Robin is playable! (look who I changed my avatar to) He definitely looks interesting! I dunno if I would main him, but I always preferred him over Chrom.
• I'm... not liking Lucina. I liked her more than Chrom in Awakening, but she is just as boring as I imagined her to be.
• Chrom isn't playable? I was pretty surprised! He's not even a character!
• I will lower the ratings for Shulk and the Chorus Men. Shulk will receive his original 80% score while Chorus Men will go back to 25%-30% range. They were definitely hurt, but I think that Shulk will still get in despite the Gematsu leak supposedly being fake.

 

[jaytalks]

Lucina has got to have some stuff to differentiate her from Marth, right?

some taunts and probably her stance.

I'm glad that the Gematsu leak has been debunked. Discussion have been weak with it around.

The cool down day is also a good idea. My heart goes out to all the Chrom fans, who got taunted with that trailer so much.

However, I really can't wait for the satisfaction day. Also, the Lucina reveal has given me an idea for a Miiverse post. I'll try to do it this week and post it on smashboards.

Also small prediction. Lucina is going to have the lowest satisfaction rating this side of Greninja.

 

[Pacack]

We are officially terrible at predictions.

 

[FinalStarmen]

Had Robin been confirmed a few days ago, surely "Sal Romano is misinformed/Gematsu Leak is discredited" would have been a top contender for "Most Hyping" moment.

We are officially terrible at predictions.

Sakurai: *laughs*

 

[Kenith]

All I can say about today's reveals is...I don't think I've ever screamed like a little girl for over three minutes.
So excited. I'm sorry I ever doubted you, Sakurai.

 

[Reginleif]

Robin's chances: 1% - I'm now convinced that Chrom is in the game. There's not really any chance of Fire Emblem getting four characters. As a result, this is the most I will give to any future Fire Emblem character that we rate except for Chrom.
Want: 30% - Never cared that much about Robin.

Lucina's chances: 1% - Same as above.
Want: 60% - I wouldn't mind her.

LOL Robin and Lucina are very overrated, guys the Gematsu leak is real, Chrom is the FE newcomer and he will obviously be the only one.

-Robin:
Chances: 0%
Want: 10%

-Lucina:
Chances: 0%
Want: 50%

Lucina:
Chance: 5%
Want: 80%

Robin:
Chance: 10%
Want: 97%

-Robin
Chance 5% - Sal's leaker is probably right. And please even if he weren't Chrom is the face of Awakening.
Want 0% - ugh no more avatar 'characters' please.

-Lucina
Chance 20% - maybe Sal's leaker got confused? (lol hopefully) if not Chrom takes priority, again.
Want 60%- if I had to pick a new FE character it would be her, even over Chrom.

Robin:

Chance: 20%

Still have some hope for him. Or her, whichever one is best.

Want: 100%

Yes, please.

Lucina:

Chance: 10%

I'm a little more iffy on her chances, but you never know with Sakurai.

Want: 80%

I want Robin more, but I wouldn't turn my nose up at Lucina. She's awesome.

...I would write more but I'm typing this from my phone and I hate it.

Robin: 5%
Chrom's almost confirmation leaves no place for Robin, unfortunately. As much as a successful and important game Awakening was, I have hard time justifying 2 characters from it.

Want: 100%
He was my preferred FE newcomer. I guess I'll have to wait for the next Micaiah to roll by.

Lucina: 0%
Again, she's in the same situation as Robin, only worse due her similarities to Marth.

Want: 1%
No. I fully realise that Sakurai can make her unique if he got down it, she's really no better than Chrom from a design perspective. The 1% is due to having tried out the Lucina PSA, which is quite good.

I'll rate the pair together since their fates are pretty well intertwined.

(Chrom - 75%)
Lucina - 20%
Robin - 0%
(No Awakening Rep - 5%)

First off, the obvious: with Chrom being named in the Gematsu leak as a newcomer, by far the most likely scenario is that he gets in, and if he's in, there's little to no reason to believe a second Awakening newcomer would join him. For Lucina or Robin to get into the base game, they have to kick out an in-development Chrom. Simple enough, right?

The road for Lucina to usurp her father is pretty clear cut. She contends with him for most popular Awakening character, she brings much-needed diversity to FE representation in Smash that Chrom wouldn't, and most importantly, she shares the exact same skillset. Changing plans to use Lucina instead of Chrom would be downright easy since her moveset/gameplay would remain identical, only requiring some changes in model/animations/audio to properly suit her. Granted this also makes her being a costume of Chrom more likely than her being the rep (and I do think there's a strong chance that particular scenario happens), but it's a change I could absolutely see happening, especially knowing Ike is back making two blue-haired male lords already on the roster.

The road for Robin is far worse: in fact, per my rating, it's downright impossible. Where Lucina is a relatively easy swap from the already in-development Chrom, Robin would have to be built from the ground-up focusing on his/her Tactician abilities. At best they could reuse some of the moves intended for Chrom in Robin's moveset, but the addition of magic especially would mandate a dramatically different direction for the character. It's a crazy amount of work to take on mid-development for a character that isn't as popular as Chrom nor Lucina, the kind of decision I just can't see any sane development team making. If they really felt that strongly about including Robin they could maybe include him/her as a DLC character down the road, but for the disc? I can't see it happening at this point.

All three of these characters had strong claims to being in SSB4, and while the sentiment has long been that Chrom would likely take the spot, it's been difficult to say for sure what might happen. Thanks to the Gematsu leak, though, I think we can finally say that at least one of these characters is out of the running for the disc. The big remaining question is how will Lucina be included, if at all, and I'm tremendously curious to see if she makes it in as a Chrom costume or if she can manage to steal the spotlight altogether.

Lucina Want - 100% - My favorite Awakening character, and considering how much I've enjoyed FE characters in Smash in the past, I'm definitely all for having another.

Robin Want - 75% - As cool as a plot point Robin was, he/she didn't really stick out much as an actual character compared to many others in the cast. That said, a Tactician would surely make for a much more interesting Smash character than Chrom/Lucina could, so I'd definitely be excited if I'm proven wrong and he/she ends up in Smash.

Robin

Chance - 7.5% - Curse Chrom eating up so much of his chance...

Want - 50% - Better than Chrom or Lucina, but I just can't muster any sort of interest in him. Admittedly, I find Tomes in Fire Emblem boring, and I find Elemental Swords and Staves to be more interesting, so give me Roy and/or Anna.


Lucina

Chance - 0.5% - Basically hanging dead in the water.

Want - 20% - While she offers a bit more of an interesting personality, game play wise she's just about the same as Chrom.


Predictions

Bandanna Dee - 23.78% - Just natural variance differences.

Captain Toad - 2.35% - I think Captain Toad's game is too little too late.

Lucina
Chance: 2% - I've pretty much given up on her. Both Robin and Chrom are far more likely picks.
Want: 100% - I'll say when it ends.

Robin
Chance: 13% - Sorry Robin but my money's on Chrom.
Want: 90% - I'd still be happy to see him/her make it in.

Predictions
Bandanna Dee: 19%
Captain Toad: 4%

 

[ShrekItRalph]

No one expected that. I love Sakurai so much right now.

 

[Pureownege75]

Just my overall thoughts
The Good:
- Death to Gematsu, opens up the possibility for other characters
- Always nice to see Captain Falcon, even if there was never any doubt in his return
- Robin looks like an extremely fresh and fun character

The Bad:
- Four Fire Emblem Characters is a bit much in my opinion. We have to beg for 3 DK characters or 3 Metroid characters, while Fire Emblem gets four. Definitely overrepresented imo
- Lucina looks like a boring clone, it's too early to officially say, but she's not looking terribly different from Marth

The Ugly:
- The way Chrom was treated, my condolenses to his fans