Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[Bradli Wartooth]

Look, i argued with two people, TWO, and i only wanted insight as to why they thaught the things they thaught, Besides i find it incredebly hard to believe that that's the main hurdle for robin, when there are probably hundreds of workarounds for this, Use one of the actors that voices anoter character, Reuse the voices, dont have him/her speak, and that's assuming nintendo desides wich characters they pick by how much money they'll have to spend.

But then they have to make different models as well. Look, I never said I don't want Robin. I actually really want Robin, he was my favorite character in Awakening. I just don't see him as likely when compared to Chrom. I wish Robin struck me as a more likely character, but I just see them wanting to go a different route because it'll make the character's development quicker and make it easier on the dev team to have the game out on time.

 

[FalKoopa]

Don't get too heated with the debates, okay? Don't stretch it too long either.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Don't get too heated with the debates, okay? Don't stretch it too long either.

What else can you say? It's Fire Emblem. These types are debates are to be expected.

 

[Erimir]

Wasn't Chrom supposed to be announced at E3?

Others already posted about Chrom, so...

The only other thing there is to say about this is that SalRomano posted the name "Mii Fighter" before the Digital Event.

At E3, further characters were revealed that fit with the leak, including Miis under the name "Mii Fighter".

This is why people don't doubt the leak because of E3.

 

[Narwalgod]

But then they have to make different models as well. Look, I never said I don't want Robin. I actually really want Robin, he was my favorite character in Awakening. I just don't see him as likely when compared to Chrom. I wish Robin struck me as a more likely character, but I just see them wanting to go a different route because it'll make the character's development quicker and make it easier on the dev team to have the game out on time.

Whelp looks like its my last response, listen, im not gonna deny that chrom is more likely than robin, because he is, but the problem i have and probebly always will have with your argument, is that it seems to rest on the notion that there is some sort of effort and money budget, that robin would take an insane amout of it (for one character) and that the only way robin will be represented as a character in smash is a fully customizable voice heavy character. I never wanted to convince you that you were wrong, because frankly ive never seen anyone in a forum utter the words"I as wrong you were wright and i respectfully agnolladge that." and i doubt i ever will. I just wanted us to have a decent debate over why we thaught robin should or shouldnt, will or wont be in. Sorry if i came off as rude.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Lucina
Chance: 2% - I've pretty much given up on her. Both Robin and Chrom are far more likely picks.
Want: 100% - I'll say when it ends.

Robin
Chance: 13% - Sorry Robin but my money's on Chrom.
Want: 90% - I'd still be happy to see him/her make it in.

Predictions
Bandanna Dee: 19%
Captain Toad: 4%

 

[Reginleif]

You're assuming a lot of things, you're assuming that smtxfe won't be represented by the smt in it's name, or that lucina is iconic than both chrom AND marth.

I have grounds for my argument, therefore don't be too quick to label them assumptions. & Lucina is more iconic than Chrom and Robin*. Don't know where you got Marth.

 

[Narwalgod]

I have grounds for my argument, therefore don't be too quick to label them assumptions. & Lucina is more iconic than Chrom and Robin*. Don't know where you got Marth.

You're saying that Lucina is being hinted as the face smtxfe, Since its SmtxFE and not SmtXAwakening she is in direct competission with marth. A lso Pm me.

 

[Toxicroaker]

I have grounds for my argument, therefore don't be too quick to label them assumptions. & Lucina is more iconic than Chrom and Robin*. Don't know where you got Marth.

I don't want to argue, so I probably won't make this into a long disgussion, but how is Lucina more iconic than Chrom? Chrom is the main character of his game and Lucina isn't even a usable unit until the second half of the story. I fail so see how she can be even close to as iconic as Chrom.

 

[Narwalgod]

I don't want to argue, so I probably won't make this into a long disgussion, but how is Lucina more iconic than Chrom? Chrom is the main character of his game and Lucina isn't even a usable unit until the second half of the story. I fail so see how she can be even close to as iconic as Chrom.

Well....She is THE most popular fea character in japan i'll give her that.

 

[Gunla]

I'm going to echo the words of Fal and warn you to not get heated with the debates, today AND tomorrow especially. It's Fire Emblem, yes, but that's no excuse.

 

[Bradli Wartooth]

I don't want to argue, so I probably won't make this into a long disgussion, but how is Lucina more iconic than Chrom? Chrom is the main character of his game and Lucina isn't even a usable unit until the second half of the story. I fail so see how she can be even close to as iconic as Chrom.

Basically the stuff she has going for her is that she is a recent lord character who is extremely popular in Japan. And she's a girl, which the Fire Emblem series does not yet have in Smash Bros. ((However that issue could be taken care of if Robin is playable) Dammit, Sakurai, I'm still not over Lyn...)

 

[Narwalgod]

I'm going to echo the words of Fal and warn you to not get heated with the debates, today AND tomorrow especially. It's Fire Emblem, yes, but that's no excuse.

Nice pandora and prometheus sprites.

 

[Shotguner159]

I don't want to argue, so I probably won't make this into a long discussion, but how is Lucina more iconic than Chrom? Chrom is the main character of his game and Lucina isn't even a usable unit until the second half of the story. I fail so see how she can be even close to as iconic as Chrom.

She's plastered to the merchandise instead of him. She's on the cover of the artbook and soundtrack, she's getting a figma, got two chapters in the comic, has two keychains like Robin and appears in 3/4 of the Audio Dramas. In comparison, Chrom got one chpater, has one keychain, and appears in 2/4 of the Audio Dramas.

 

[Groose]

C'mon, guys! We can do a bit better than this! This game is exactly that--a game! A little bit of debate here and there is OK, but please don't drag it throughout the day. If you really want to argue with someone's rating, take it to the Character Discussion Thread or to a PM. We're all different people with different opinions, so we'll never all agree (unless if we're talking about Lupus), but that doesn't mean that we can't coexist.

I'd prefer to see less of the "woah, we're really overrating this character" and "this character deserves a higher score than that" comments thrown out there in the future. It's OK to ask someone to elaborate on their explanation (particularly if they didn't go into much detail) and bring up a point they blatantly missed, but if they aren't going to change their mind, don't try to force them!

Tomorrow is Bandana Dee's day. I don't know why people always bring out their worst when he's up, but it doesn't have to be that way this time. Don't challenge someone else's belief; some think he's likely and that's fine, and others think he's not and that's fine. Let's see some improvement here, OK?

​

Anyway...

If I were to evaluate Fire Emblem without Gematsu in mind, my scores would look something like this:

30% Chrom
15% Lucina
15% Robin
15% Roy
1% Anna

However, I have to take into account the leak that I believe is almost definitely real, so I view Chrom as pretty much definite. I doubt that we'll receive any newcomers outside of those listed in Gematsu, and I highly doubt that we're getting a second Fire Emblem: Awakening character. I think we'll just get Marth, Ike, and Chrom from the Fire Emblem franchise, and I'm actually leaning towards Roy as the most likely fourth character. With that in mind...

Robin: 1% chance and 25% want
Lucina: 1% chancee and 0% want
One of these days, I'm going to play Awakening. I'll probably fall in love with the cast that everyone else seems to love so much, and I'll look back and think, "How did I not support any Awakening characters before SSB4?" However, as for right now, I have no attachment to the cast of Awakening, and I can't really want them while there are so many other characters I love that aren't on the roster. Lucina is particularly boring to me; she's so aesthetically similar to Marth, and I don't really see her adding much to the cast. Robin is a bit better; I think a magic user could actually be pretty cool, and I like his/her design. Still, I'd prefer not to have a character that I have no attachment to.

I think I've explained my chance scores above. I just highly doubt we'll get two Awakening characters when we're so close to launch now.

DAY OVER

WADDLING IN FROM DREAMLAND, IT'S BANDANA DEE!​

 

[Gunla]

Groose, you went double 1%?
Man, I should have really gone in and given those 0.01%s like I wanted to. I just didn't to prevent salt because I believe in Gematsu. Of course, I don't believe that the Gematsu leak has every newcomer... as tomorrow will prove.

A fair warning before Groose gets to it:
Please be careful to not go too heated into discussion and saltiness, users. For Groose's and the other user's sakes. It's controversial, but it's no excuse to counterrate and rate with bias.

 

[Groose]

Robin
16.98% chance (was 25.83%)
66.12% want (was 59.64%)
With Chrom's score spiking earlier in the week, Robin's score was obviously going to fall off a little; however, it remains relatively strong. His/her want score has also increased to the highest point it's ever been at; when the dust settles and the want list is updated, (s)he's clearly going to be solidified in the top ten.​

Lucina
16.72% chance (was 12.78%)
56.59% want (was 38.64%)
Unlike Robin, Lucina managed to improve her chance score; although she was previously less than half as likely as Robin, she's now almost exactly on par with the Tactician. Her want score also saw an absolutely massive spike; she stormed up way past the 50% margin. She's not going to beat Robin, but she's more popular than her father now.

Today we're taking a break from main characters and talking about the sidekicks! Bandana Dee seems to get bigger with every time we rate him; just this E3 it was announced that he'll be appearing in the upcoming Kirby: Canvas Curse game. Captain Toad also benefitted from E3, as he'll now be getting a full retail game with his name on it! Please rate Bandana Dee and Captain Toad in chance and want.

Tomorrow we'll be talking about a series near to my heart; it's a Zelda Discussion day! With Tingle out for the count, will we get a Zelda newcomer? Please predict how Ghirahim and Impa will do!
​

Groose, you went double 1%?
Man, I should have really gone in and given those 0.01%s like I wanted to. I just didn't to prevent salt because I believe in Gematsu. Of course, I don't believe that the Gematsu leak has every newcomer... as tomorrow will prove.

I'm of the opinion that we're probably not getting another newcomer. I'm trying to have all my scores for every character add to 49% to reflect this. I suppose I could be called pessimistic, but I'm just trying to rate as honestly as I can.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Bandanna Dee Chance: 15% In terms of Kirby characters Bandanna Dee has the best shot IMO. Though I don't really see him happening, if he was actually being considered for playable status, I think his uniqueness with his spear is not enough for him to jump Kirby into 4 playable characters. Unless Kirby is pushing to advertise Bandanna Dee hardcore (like Rosalina), I don't really see Sakurai making him playable, I see him making it as an AT as a response to Bandanna Dee fans.

Captain Toad Chance: 3% I think this might be a percent increase from last time, but I do not absolutely think he's getting in just because he has his own game now. We already past the mark where the roster and priority list is finalized, and the fact Rosalina took the 5th Mario spot makes Captain Toad have less of a chance.

Ghirahim Prediction: 5.34%

Impa Prediction: 13.76%

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Bandana Dee & Captain Toad chance - 0.01% (Adding more zeroes would probably be overkill.....)
Bandana Dee & Captain Toad want - 0%

I want them about as much as I want to catch a cold. I can't really take these two seriously, I don't think they would even be likely as dlc let alone packaged in the game at launch.

 

[chronomantic]

-Bandana Dee
Chance 20% - no idea. He's getting a more prominent role in the series but don't know what that could mean for his chances in Smash. Though when they changed King Dedede's waddle toss to only gordos it made me suspicious.
Want 50% - yeah why not I wouldn't mind a new Kirby rep.

-Captain Toad
Chance 10% - new game announced but I don't think he could get in before Toad, it would be kinda of unfair actually. He can't even jump.
Want 0% - if anything Toad should be in.

 

[Deleted member]

I am not taking DLC into account for any of these scores, because it has yet to be confirmed.

Captain Toad:
Chance: 5% - I don't think we'll see another Mario character, but I would love to be wrong about that.
Want: 100% - He's a Toad, and he's got a lamp and a backpack. I love Toad. If any Toad was in Smash Bros, he'd be my main. That's a frog, but close enough.

Bandana Dee:
Chance: 17% - If Kirby gets a new character, it will be this guy for sure. Dee is easily the front-runner here, trumping all other possible characters. That being said, I don't think Kirby will get a new character this time. I see Dee as a front runner for Smash 5 (if it happens) among other choices.

Want: 12% - Eh... I know he's kinda cute and he has that bandana, but I fail to understand the rest of the appeal of this character. If it's just for the spear, there are better options if a spear character is a must. He could certainly be unique, but I have no attachment to this guy at all having not played Return to Dreamland. I wish Kirby had a reoccurring villain that was popular enough. I would love a character to represent the darker side of the series rather than having another cute Kirby character.

FLAME SHIELD ACTIVE

 

[AustarusIV]

Bandana Dee

Chance: 1%
He never struck me as being very likely.

Want: 0%
Never saw the need for another Kirby character. To me, it would only emphasis Sakurai's bias towards the series he made.

Captain Toad

Chance: 10%
As someone who's characterized as being both cowardly and weak (Luigi is a Cowardly Lion, mind you), I have a hard time seeing him as a competent Smash fighter. But I'll give him a 10% chance in the scenario that he might become DLC.

Want: 0%
If I wanted to see Toad playable, I would choose the classic Toad everyone knows and loves.

 

[Gunla]

My ratings are in spoilers. They're easily prone to salt, so I've collapsed them for those who only want to see.
Bandana Waddle Dee: Waddle Ex Machina

Spoiler: Rating (For those who are prone to salt, you are warned)

Pros
+Almost no evidence hinting at a disconfirmation or NPC appearance
+Treated as the fourth main Kirby character now
+Still is relevant (even confirmed to appear in the newest Kirby game before MK and Dedede)
+It's clear at this point that BWD is not a one-off character. He's began to appear in pretty much every bit of Kirby media and gaming. Triple Deluxe. Super Star Ultra. Return to Dreamland, and now Rainbow Curse. In media, he's pretty much shown up in many areas. HAL cares. He's slowly became more and more important and crucial to the Kirby franchise as one of the quartet of heroes (let's be honest, Dedede ain't a villain) and they're slowly getting to that point where BWD is becoming huge in the Kirby meta. Are they at the point where he's a Smash contender? Possibly, but it's not a definite yes or no.
+Wields weapons and potential abilities that aren't in the current roster or potential list of leaked newcomers, and actually can do things other than that. (Sal Leak)
+A lack of Kirby evidence could mean they're saving him in the barracks to reveal a stage...
+Distinct from his typical Dees, he's actually confirmed to have his own ideals and goals (being determined to help Kirby and assist him in ways that he can) and not some general character with a small palette swap.
+Many claim he can't be in because of Waddle Dees in Smash Run? How about the fact that he has no problem taking down his own kind in Return to Dreamland?
+Sakurai Modesty seems to be thrown out the window.
Cons
-If there's a newcomer I can see being DLC and not in the game, it's this guy (and Sceptile/Blaziken). Seeing how we're mostly predicting in-game characters...
-Ripe for AT material.
-Ripe for Smash 6/5/whateverthenextoneiscalled.
-There's the notion from some that Kirby is complete, but it's likely been a point of arguement for Sakurai. Not exactly able to say where he'd go because it's a grey area.

OVERALL RATING: 30%
OVERALL RATING IF DLC IS BEING COUNTED: 66%
WANT: 100%- Obvious explanation is obvious. I've been a huge BWD supporter for a long time and he still keeps his seat as my favorite potential newcomer (sorry Shulk!) for a variety of reasons.

Captain Toad: Indiana Toad and the Temple of Goombas

Spoiler: Rating (For those who are prone to salt, you are warned)

Pros
+Captian Toad is THE Toad. Like BWD is THE Waddle Dee, they're confirmed to be distinct from their typical counterparts.
+New game- he's still relevant and not a one off. He's been in the series since Galaxy!
Cons
-Rosalina already a playable character. We don't usually get two newcomers a series per game.
-RIPE FOR DLC MATERIAL!

OVERALL RATING: 5%- Sorry guys, but with one already confirmed, it's very unlikely we'll get two.
OVERALL RATING IF DLC IS BEING COUNTED: 17%
WANT: 100%- If we get a Toad, I want this guy. I really like this guy.

PREDICTIONS:
Ghirahim: Little Debbie's Creepy Candy- 5%
Impa: GLAIVES!- 11%

 

[Erimir]

Bandana Dee

There aren't that many things to talk about. The first is Gematsu and three more newcomers confirmed. As I've said over and over, this definitely reduces the chances for any other newcomers. I happen to think that a roster of 47 or 48 is most likely, while there is some chance for a larger roster (with 51 as the highest number with more than negligible chances) and also some chance for cuts to make room for more newcomers, the net result is little space left. As I think about it, I probably should've given even lower scores to Ridley, K Rool, Takamaru, Isaac and Mewtwo.

The second thing to talk about is Kirby: Rainbow Curse. The picture with four Bandana Dees is going to be brought up again and again today. The problem with that is this: Before that picture came out, one of the Bandana Dee fans' big arguments was that he was totally unique! He was not like Toad, who is another prominent sidekick type character - but doesn't have a unique name or appearance. Well, now it appears that Bandana Dee is not so unique anymore. So while this shows Bandana Dee is sticking around the Kirby franchise, it also undercuts one of their previous arguments. So one argument was strengthened, while another argument was severely weakened. I don't see that as an obvious big plus for Bandana Dee.

But more importantly, Kirby: Rainbow Curse is being announced three months before Smash launches. Sure, they've probably been developing it for a while already, but the roster was already decided upon a good while ago. This is just too late to matter much.

Bandana Dee being one of four doesn't really hurt either, I'm just trying to put a damper on the boosters who are going to say this is strong positive evidence. It's ambiguous and mostly unimportant.

The third and least important thing to talk about is move customization. We can no longer say with certainty that Waddle Dees have been completely removed from Dedede's move set, as it is entirely possible that one of the variants on Gordo Toss will be Waddle Dee Toss.

Bandana Dee chances: 3%
Sorry, but I don't see room for more than 1-4 non-Gematsu newcomers (or Mewtwo), and Bandana Dee doesn't really measure up to the other options. He's still more likely than most in my eyes - my scores for most characters outside of our current top 10 or so are going to be brutal.

Bandana Dee want: 5%
Bandana Boosters have made me dislike the character. The positive thing I would get out of seeing him? It would prove that the Rosalina+Gematsu leak is not an exhaustive list of newcomers.

Captain Toad

Bottom line is that Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker came about too late to matter. They most likely did not start developing this game until after SM3DW was almost finished, possibly not even until after release.

This definitely helps the chances of getting a playable Toad in Smash 5 though - especially if it's a hit.

Captain Toad chances: 0.5%
Captain Toad want: 59%
I see more move set potential for Toad now because of this game. And Toad deserves a spot in some form. But I'm not really upset about the probable exclusion of any playable Toad.

Predictions:
Ghirahim - 13%
I foresee a big drop because of more newcomer skepticism due to Gematsu. Not enough of a drop IMO.

Impa - 6%
I foresee a modest rise because of Hyrule Warriors, tempered by Gematsu.

Both will be slightly aided by Tingle's demise. For sure, I expect to see Impa rise in chance relative to Ghirahim. But honestly, Zelda is well-represented and while I'm a big Zelda fan and would welcome more Zelda characters... I never thought it likely, and with little room left for more newcomers...

Impa: GLAIVES!- 11%

While I don't think Impa's blade looks like any real weapon (it's way too big), glaive's are polearms, and Impa is definitely using a sword. Looks more like an over-sized nodachi than a glaive, IMO.

 

[Leafeon523]

A memo for everyone: Just remember that when you post, @Brawler610 is watching
Bandana Dee:
Chance: 16%
If Kirby gets a 4th rep, it's him.
Want: 60%
Why not?
Captain Toad:
Chance: 5%
I don't see him coming in until smash 5.
Want: 66%
I feel like he would be cool, but only because I'm excited to play treasure tracker.

 

[Deleted member]

Bandana Dee and Captain Toad have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated these two, check to see what you've said on their days!

I MUST WARN EVERYONE AGAIN. IF YOU HAVE AN OPINION, DO NOT CHALLENGE ANOTHER'S OPINION. DO NOT OPPOSE OR FIGHT ONE ANOTHER.
FIND BANDANA DEE TO BE UNLIKELY? GOOD. DON'T FORCE THAT DOWN THE SUPPORTER'S THROATS OR INSULT THEM.
FIND BANDANA DEE TO BE LIKELY? GOOD. DON'T FORCE THAT DOWN THE ONES WHO ARE GIVING HIM LOW RATINGS.
KEEP THINGS CIVIL AND EVERYTHING WILL GO SMOOTHLY TODAY. AGAIN, I AM MONITORING THIS DAY LIKE I DID WITH THE GEMATSU LEAK DAY. IF ONE USER IS GETS TOO CHAOTIC, I WILL REPORT THEM AND THERE WILL BE CONSEQUENCES.
KEEP THINGS CIVIL!

With this being said.
Bandana Dee
Chance: 30%
At first... I was going to give him a 25%. However, the fact that he has been getting more, bigger roles in the Kirby games is at least significant in my eyes. Nintendo and Hal have been pushing this guy since Returns to Dream Land. I can see a scenario where Hal request to Sakurai to put him in the game. Though, I expect him to get out-competed by other characters. Kirby could get four reps, but that's not guaranteed.
I have nothing more to add really.
Want: 100%
He's still my third most wanted newcomer, or second depending on your point of view since Little Mac is confirmed. I love the character and I see so much potential for him in Smash. I really hope that he can make it in despite the Gematsu leak being real.

Captain Toad
Chance: 5%
Speaking of characters Nintendo has been pushing, Captain Toad seems to be one of them since Super Mario Galaxy. It's actually pretty significant that Mario didn't get a major game announced, but Captain Toad did. His game was announced alongside major games like Super Smash Bros. for Wii U and 3DS, Zelda Wii U, Xenoblade Chronicles: X, and Pokemon Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire.
Despite this, I think that it might be too late to cause any significance in Smash's development. Then again, I've been proven wrong before.
Want: 100%
I can't say that I'm really hyped for his game or I would get it day one release (it's retail, right?) as with Smash Bros. and Xenoblade X, but I am interested in it.
His levels were some of the most fun and creative levels in SM3DW. I remember playing one of his levels a day before E3 and I thought, "You know, I wouldn't mind it if Captain Toad got his own game. I wish there were more levels like this." ...Nintendo really read my mind there!
If he got in, I would be pleasantly surprised.

Ghirahim Prediction: 9.84%
His scores will see a drop.
Impa Prediction: 19.37%
Her's will go up thanks to Hyrule Warriors.

 

[Sun & Moon]

Want for both characters: 100%
Bandanna Dee's chances: 23%. Even thought I'm a supporter, I just don't think his likely.
Captain Toad's chances: 0,0001%. Only if a miracle happen.

 

[andimidna]

Captain Toad:

I'll start with want. Honestly, I've always loved Captain Toad. Even before he was cool. He didn't stand out much in the Galaxy games compared to characters like Rosalina and Lubba, but he stood out more than Honey Queen but I've always loved both of those games and everything in them.
While playing 3d world, his mini games were one of my favorite features. It was such a unique part with completely different gameplay than the rest of the game. I remember saying how I wished he got his own game. And fan demand finally resulted in his game's reveal this E3. And it looks like one of the few games I'll actually get, depending on price.
So with that out of the way- is Captain Toad one of my favorite videogame characters? Yes. His adorable voice and cute noises and themes are perfect.
But do I want to play as him in a fighting game- not really. I just don't have any desire to kick and punch the Smash characters with Captain Toad, or any Toad. It's a weird opinion to have, but there are quite a few characters I love that I don't want to be in Smash. To a certain extent Tetra, Lyn, and Daisy are also all included on this list of mine. So I'm pretty much mixed with this one. But the new game did remind me of how cute he was.
Want: 60%
I'm secretly an avid Toad detractor. Shhh. Don't tell anybody.
Chance: 0.9%
This is probably pretty much what I gave him last time. I already explained in my prediction. His own game is a result of the great reactions to his mini game in a game that it itself has yet to receive any content, and if 3d world doesn't affect the game, they certainly wouldn't pick him based off his minor Galaxy appearances.

I think I'll make a long post for Waddle Dee later, which will also have my predictions. Im a bit surprised were rating Ghirahim and Impa but not Tetra and Ganon, but I'd agree if it was because Ghirahim and Impa are more likely, I personally think that too, but Tetra was rated pretty closely to Ghirahim and Ganon hasn't been rated in a long time... Maybe I'll nominate them later... Maybe.

 

[Narwalgod]

Bandana dee chances:54%
Popular kirby rep. Is from sakurai's series. NO COMPETITION.

Want: 99.99999%
PROS:
Bandana makes him look like a pirate, pirate waddle dee needs to be a thing, close enough, is super cute, needs own adventure.
Cons:
Bandana implies he is an underling, underlings are lame, Pirate dee would be better, He'd have cannons and ****, what was i talking about?

 

[Louie G.]

Bandana Dee:

Chance: 30%
Eh...
I'm not too sure we're getting newcomers outside of the Gematsu Leak, but I think my rating would be the same regardless. Kirby is a pretty big series, but it's arguably the most complete series in the game. The hero, villain, and anti-hero. Bandana Dee as the sidekick completes it even more, but as a Kirby fan I'm absolutely fine with the three. No character compares to their importance, not even Dee.
Dee has little going against him, however he has little going in his favor aside from little going against him. He's in limbo, and I doubt we'll know the answer until release.
He's from Sakurai's series, but all of the Sakurai bias seems to be going to Kid Icarus rather than Kirby this time. In fact we've seen very little Kirby content, not even a stage. And DK has a similar scenario, but there'a a possibility that said stage would give away K. Rool's role in the game, and I doubt any stage will give away Dee's.
I'm kind of rambling about random crap now, so I just jumped on the 30% train because that's what most people seem to be doing. It's a very fair and accurate rating.

Want: 80%
I do like Bandana Dee quite a lot. However I'm not too desperate for a new Kirby character at the moment.

Captain Toad:

Chance: 2%
I'm not factoring his DLC chance in here, so this is his chance of being playable from the start.
It's probably not happening. Smash 5/6 is looking good, however.

Want: 100%
I love the idea of Captain Toad in Smash. Not only is it a loophole to get Toad into Smash Bros, but he's got a lot of potential to be unique.
And he can jump if he wants to.

Ghirahim: 8.75%
It should be higher, honestly.
Impa: 19.25%
It should be lower, honestly.

 

[andimidna]

Bandana dee chances:54%
Popular kirby rep. Is from sakurai's series. NO COMPETITION.

Want: 99.99999%
PROS:
Bandana makes him look like a pirate, pirate waddle dee needs to be a thing, close enough, is super cute, needs own adventure.
Cons:
Bandana implies he is an underling, underlings are lame, Pirate dee would be better, He'd have cannons and ****, what was i talking about?

I'm not flaming or anything like that, but I think there are other Kirby characters that aren't impossible. I wouldn't say he has no competition after characters who were considered far less likely than their competition already got in (Rosalina, Greninja)
Magolor, Prince Fluff, and Dark Matter all come to mind as his unlikely competition.
But he's definitely the frontrunner of Kirby, I wouldn't disagree with that.
Oh, and we're also rating Captain Toad if you feel like rating him too.

 

[Pacack]

Bandana Dee:

Chance: 6%
I gave him a 30% before I was convinced on the Gematsu Leak, and have since given the Gematsu leak a 20% chance of being fake, that's 6%.

Want: 20%
I'm getting less and less fond of him over time, but he could be interesting.


Captain Toad:

Chance: 3%
DLC is his best bet by far. Otherwise, I don't see him getting in.

Want: 60%
I'd rather have the regular Toad, but it's still Toad, so I wouldn't be upset.


[collapse=Current Top Ten]
Shulk 85% (RTC: 91.70%)
Chrom 70% (RTC: 88.82%)
Chorus Men 67.5% (RTC: 81.25%)
King K. Rool 65% (RTC: 53.62%)
Takamaru 60% (RTC: 38.12%)
Ridley: 55% (RTC: 48.41%)
Robin 21.4% (RTC: 16.98%)
Isaac 17.5% (RTC: 30.40%)
Dixie Kong 15% (RTC: 40.85%)
Bandana Dee 6% (RTC: 24.72%)
[/collapse]

 

[Glaciacott]

Captain Toad
Chance - 5%
More than the game, I feel comments from the Nintendo people give me the impression Captain Toad is very liked by Nintendo, and that's a situation that led Rosalina to becoming playable.
However, it's still very unlikely due to Gematsu probably giving us the last newcomers.

Want - 40%
I'd be pleased, but at the same time I feel the now very coveted newcomer spot should go to new series reps or the Metroid and DK series.

Bandanna Dee
Chance - 4%
I don't see any sign that he is being considered, nor that he will be considered. While he is becoming a staple of Kirby games, the recent Rainbow Curse still just makes him to me as meaningful as blue and yellow toad. And sure, while he would make sense for a Kirby rep, I feel that Kirby won't get another rep and some series deserve their first rep before Kirby deserves a fourth.

Want - 5%
I am so tired of Bandanna Dee now. So very tired. I liked the character in Return to Dreamland, but after soo many deebates, I just want as much distance as possiblle from Dee.
Also, again, Gematsu leaves me with the impression we may only have three newcomers left. And if we do have more than that, I'd much rather we get Ridley, K. Rool, Isaac, Takamaru, Andy, Dixie, etc. Compared to all other possible options this character just pales to me, It'd just feel like playing spear kirby.

Prediction
Ghirahim - 14%
Impa - 9%

 

[Narwalgod]

I'm not flaming or anything like that, but I think there are other Kirby characters that aren't impossible. I wouldn't say he has no competition after characters who were considered far less likely than their competition already in (Rosalina, Greninja)
Magolor, Prince Fluff, and Dark Matter all come to mind as his unlikely competition.
But he's definitely the frontrunner of Kirby, I wouldn't disagree with that.
Oh, and we're also rating Captain Toad if you feel like rating him too.

Ugggghhhhh fiiineeee

Captain toad chances: 33%
want: 67%
Pros:Awesome frontal light, Pickaxe is weapon of choice, Miner toad needs to be a thing, He'd have a grizzled beard AND KARTS, Almost as cool as miner toad.
Cons:Can't jump, Backpack is half his sise he probs has some studying to do, Pickaxes are OP, Will make me want Frontal light DLC, Can't dash, Dragon partners are OP, Miner toad is better, He'd throw boulders n stufff, I am fairly certain he is more of psycopath than the villager.

 

[Morbi]

Bandanna Dee Chance: 100%

Dat Gordo toss. Coincidence; I think not! Not to mention Sakurai's inherent biases and the notion that he has no competition.

Bandanna Dee Want: 100%

 

[Xavier :D]

Dat Gordo toss. Coincidence; I think not! Not to mention Sakurai's inherent biases and the notion that he has no competition.

THIS.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Captain Toad Chances - 0%
If the roster was chosen long before it even debuted, chances are Captain Toad barely existed in any stage of development, let alone his own game. Not being able to jump is literally one of his defining features, we already have one Mario newcomer, and if we get a second, there are two or three other better and more popular options. and in the next Smash, regular all-star Toad and Waluigi will once again be eligible.. so there's that, taking away even future chances.
Want - 0%

Banana Dee Chances - 0.4%
There are so few slots left on the roster that I have no faith in him at all. I do think he will be a mainstay of Top Ten lists five or six years from now when speculation for a future Smash games starts up, and if he plays a big role in another Kirby game or two.
Want - 0%

 

[Kalimdori]

Captain Toad Chance: 2%
Well, he's officially more important then Rosalina now. But half a dozen characters are, and she still made it in over them. I think Captain Toad is an extremely good choice for character DLC if that becomes a thing. But this isn't about DLC, and as such, there isn't much of a chance he could get into the initial roster, as his game was based off good reception of a game released well after the roster was decided, and I doubt they'd make a last minute addition of Toad of all people.
Want: 70%
I like Captain Toad, he represents a species that has been iconic from the very beginning of Mario Bros. Plus he's a complete coward, which I find hilarious.

Bandanna Dee... what on earth happened to this character? I see people getting all up in arms about him on this website. I never would have expected a Waddle Dee to become the most controversial character.
Anywho, Chance: 20%
I'm essentially rating our chances of getting a 4th Kirby character. Bandana Dee is the only viable option for this, Dark Matter's iconic appearance it it's eye, which would more likely be a boss, Magolor hasn't been around long enough, Fluff is the same. If a 4th Kirby character gets in, it will be him. That said, getting a 4th Kirby character isn't particularly likely. It's justified, Kirby is Nintendo's 5th most successful franchise (correct me if I'm wrong), I could definitely see it getting more reps. But over other potential newcomers? Not really. Dee is a supporting character, I can't see him getting in over other characters that are more important to their franchises. Would make fantastic DLC though.
Want: 90%
I like Waddle Dees. My first Nintendo game ever was Kirby 64, and whenever Waddle Dee showed up turned out to be some of my favorite moments in the game (Bobsled/minecart/river raft/etc.) And this is a Waddle Dee with a Bandana and a Spear. I like Bandanas. I like Spears. He's not exactly my most wanted newcomer, but I would love to see him.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Bandanna Dee Chance: 100%

Dat Gordo toss. Coincidence; I think not! Not to mention Sakurai's inherent biases and the notion that he has no competition.

Bandanna Dee Want: 100%

This is the only instance today where I will respond to another poster's opinion, so if your mind/score doesn't change due to my response, no worries, I don't want to push it. This will be for everyone that rates him close to 100%.

I both agree and disagree with your sentence. I agree that he has no competition within his own series, but do you believe that there is a 100% chance of a new Kirby character? Not only that, but Sakurai's biases also apply to Kid Icarus: Uprising now - and that seems to be his primary focus. Maybe Palutena (or Medusa or Hades) was his competition in addition to Kirby characters, and they won? Beyond just Sakurai games, there is also lots of competition from every other franchise, and not many slots left. If you believe the Gematsu leak, is Bandanna Dee the most likely character beyond Shulk, Chrom, and Chorus Men?

 

[Wasoodle]

BD Chance : 40% Definitely the front runner of Kirby, but there's still the chance of a different Kirby rep or none at all.

BD Want : 100% Please.

Captain Toad Chance : 8% He had his own little minigames in 3D World, but the fact that they made it into a full out game is probably saying something.

Captain Toad Want : 50% I think he would be a cool and interesting surprise character.