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Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

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Pacack

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See, but then you're not addressing the actual point. In the end Kunai and Shuriken makes no difference because it's just a projectile that could be given different physics. A shuriken could easily have the same effect you describe.

Right now we have Greninja's shurikens having two possible effects depending on whether it's charged or not. (Btw, very different projectile from Lucario's if you actually have seen it in game.) That's ignoring the two other possible changes from customizable movesets that Greninja will get.
Add to this the Mii's shuriken. Now, while I like Takamaru and his potential style, I feel like arguing his uniqueness is untouched is just not true because whereas before we could have had a unique moveset based on shuriken/kunai, katana and fireballs, that moveset is no longer as unique due to Greninja and Mii taking some of those potential ideas. Specifically, we now have four different shuriken projectile types in Smash. That we know of.

I went ahead to the main thread for Takamaru, and a lot of the description of what a character Takamaru could be like applies to Greninja (also, I don't get why here it's stupid to say Takamaru uses Shuriken but in that thread there's shuriken all over the OP, but w.e.)
Could Sakurai make him different? Of course, it's Sakurai, and I'm sure Takamaru would be awesome. But with a roster that's more and more limited, and the leak possibly taking up another three newcomer spots, I can't be excited about another set of three customizable shuriken moves, another set of three customizable fireballs moves, and another melee swordfighter style.
In terms of Smash as an idea, Takamaru would be great and belongs really well: great series, due for revival. But from the gameplay perspective the character is nowhere as exciting as something like Andy, Isaac, Chorus Kids, K. Rool, etc.
From a gameplay perspective, Takamaru would probably be primarily projectile based on how he is in Nazo no Murasame jo. He would have kunai as his longest ranged, fastest, and weakest weapon, his windmill blades as his moderate-ranged, moderate speed, semi-powerful projectile, and his fireballs as his slow-moving, short-ranged, killing projectile.

His katana could be used sparingly as either a killing move or a "get off me" move that lets him focus on projectiles again, using various forms of Iaido. (Which, by the way, is a form of swordplay completely unexplored in Smash.) This could be shown by moveset or simply playstyle (he could have his sword as tilts and whatnot and still prefer to use his projectiles.)

His customizable special moves can actually be taken almost directly from Nazo no Murasame jo's variations. He has three power-ups to his weapons - King, Bishop and Castle, which change how they're thrown (all around you, three spread out ahead of you, and three packed together in one direction).

The shuriken could do stuff like this, but it's not likely that they will if Takamaru was planned in early development like the quote suggests.

(Also, I was comparing Greninja's shuriken to Aura sphere because of the charging and all around hitbox and the Mii's shuriken to Falco's lasers because they seem to not be charged.)
 
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ThatShadowLink

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Takamaru:
Chances: 70%
While he is the only really noteworthy retro representative that they can add into the game, and would make loads of sense, my gut feeling tells me that Sakurai and the developers might consider Mega Man and Pac-Man as retro representatives. While this would be a ridiculous notion, given the fact that their movesets are almost entirely retro based, I don't think it's a far-fetched assumption.
Want: 100%
As I said, he's the only noteworthy retro rep that could be added into the game. After experiencing his playstyle in Samurai Warriors 3 and playing around a bit with his original game, I've grown really fond of him and I really like him not just as a character, but as a concept. Takamaru is a samurai, and there are no samurai in Smash. He would be an extremely welcome addition in my book. Plus if he gets in then that means we get his awesome theme tunes.

Isaac:
Chances: 40%
It's hard to say with Isaac. While his chances have gone up since Brawl due to Golden Sun receiving a new game, the series is still not quite popular enough. I think he definitely deserves to be in, the only problem is that the odds are against him - especially with a far less deserving blonde swordsman character suggestion usurping him in popularity.
Want: 100%
I love Golden Sun. I'm a bit biased here. Isaac has some really interesting tricks up his sleeve that would make for an interesting moveset. And a good way to differentiate him from all these other effeminate swordsmen would be to give him his - far cooler - older look seen in Dark Dawn. If Ike can be manly, why can't Isaac?

Predictions:
Snake: 10% due to lack of any word from Nintendo on him so far
Lucas: 40% due to inevitable cuts, becoming less relevant and being a clone character
 
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CanadianSmasher1992

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Isaac:
Chance - 43%

I think last time I gave him 53%, to be honest a lot of it was banking on the hope that Nintendo would announce a fourth Golden Sun game. Now, even though that didn't happen, I think it's important to note that Isaac hasn't been shown as an Assist Trophy yet. Even though he was an unlockable Assist Trophy in Brawl, Shadow was also and he was shown multiple times during E3. There have also been reports that Barbara the Bat was seen as an Assist Trophy, but I'm not one hundred percent on how valid that is. Regardless, the fact that one or two Assist Trophies that were previously unlockable have been shown slightly boosts Isaac's chances in my opinion. In addition, he is also very popular here in the West, so that definitely should count for something.

Want - 100%
The only reason I gave him 99.99% last time was because I thought the original rule was still in affect, the one where you're not allowed to have 100%. But yeah, he's my most wanted newcomer. And I would absolutely love it for him to be playable in Smash 4.

Takamaru:
Chance - 60%

Last time I gave him 70%, and I definitely think I was a little bit too generous with him. I thought he would be the perfect retro rep (and I still do), but I'm starting to have doubts that we'll have a retro rep at all. I don't think Mii Swordfighter having shurikens really hurts his chances because the Miis seem to have a lot of other moves that are based on playable characters such as Mii swordfighter having Link's down aerial for instance. But at the end of the day, Takamaru is still a relatively obscure Japan-only character and Sakurai has said in an interview before that he'll consider putting Takamaru in if there is another Nazo no Murasame-jou game (Source: http://forum.starmen.net/forum/Stor...ing-a-comprehensive-list-of-unused-characters). That hasn't really happened yet. And I believe the launch of the game in Europe, might be a little too late to have any impact for the initial roster (not DLC though)

Want - 70%

The more I think about it, the more I like him. It would be really cool to have an East vs. West, Japan vs. America match with Little Mac and Takamaru. If Takamaru is in, Little Mac should be in his reveal trailer.

Predictions:
Snake - 33.01%
Lucas - 45.15%
 

RhymesWithEmpty

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Takamaru
Chance: 50%
I used to think he had a pretty solid shot at being the retro revival Sakurai supposedly wants to include, and while I still think he's the most likely candidate, I'm much more on the fence about it now that the Sal leaks appear to be pretty undeniable. If we could say for sure that there were still more characters to be leaked, I would probably improve his chances, but until we know that for sure, I'll keep him at 50/50.
Want: 100%
One of my most wanted newcomers. He's a samurai, which could bring in new styles of swordplay. He has magic of sorts, and good amount of other projectiles, and a swordsman with a strong focus on projectiles is a concept I really want to see used outside of the Mii Fighters. And, once again... he's a samurai, which just makes him, friggin' cool! All samurai are cool. It's the rules. All in all, I just think he would bring a new flavor to Smash, and would be a character I would greatly enjoy playing as.

Isaac
Chance: 30%
Isaac is another one of my most wanted characters, but, unfortunately, I find him to be much less likely. He did get an AT in Brawl, and the first two Golden Sun games are generally pretty highly regarded, so I won't totally count him out - if any other AT were to get the promotion to playable at this point, I think it'd be him. Unfortunately, I think he missed his chance. Maybe if Dark Dawn had been a big hit, he could've pulled it back, but for the most part, I feel like his heyday has passed. But he still hasn't been around long enough to be a cool retro revival, like Takamaru, and isn't enough of a keystone in Nintendo's history, like ROB or Game and Watch. He's just in this sort of awkward semi-recently popular phase, with a little bit of groundswell still behind him, but probably not enough to really affect anything. I can only hope I'm wrong.
Want: 100%
As I said, he's another of my most wanted. Love Isaac, love Golden Sun. He could be another projectile/long range-type swordsman, although I imagine him being heavier and slower than Takamaru. His earth-based psynergy(psychic energy - magic, for the layman :p) gives him a wide variety of options to draw from. And then there are the Djinn. He's just a character with a lot of potential for uniqueness. Also, I imagine him getting into Smash would drastically increase the chances for more Golden Sun games, which would just make me wet myself with happiness P:

Predictions
Snake: 25%
Lucas: 50%
 

Leafeon523

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I'm going to keep it short today.
Issac:
Chance: 49%
Want: 100%

Takamaru:
Chance: 51%
Want: 80%
 

Burigu

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Isaac

Chance: 30%
Isaac is the protagonist of a GBA RPG with a small cult following that has the moveset potential to be a very interesting fight. This is due to his usage of Psyenergy (the type of magic in the Golden Sun universe) and he specializes in earth based magic depite wielding a sword. Despite Golden Sun being released on the Wii U's Virtual Console, I'm afraid it's too late for the VENUS ADEPT to be added. There's still a slight chance that he may return as an Assist Trophy with the same function. It didn't help the fact that the third title in the series (which he played a small role in) had mixed reviews and flopped really hard.
Fixed I guess you put that on purpose but still I couldn't resist

Isaac
Chance
: 24%
The only thing that keeps him alive is not appearing as an assist trophy until now.
Interesting magic, sword, potencial
Like most things now he is not in the might be complete might be imcomplete leak

Want: 30%
Only because his final smash being a summon would be really cool

Takamura

Chance: 10%
At this point I am not enterely sure, that Takamaru is the most obvious choice for a retro, I have read, the people highlighting why he is most likely and maybe all of you are right, but with the vast Nintendo IP, another character we haven't even thought about could get the spot, don't ask me who I don't know but the coin is STILL in the air.

It appears I am of the few people that brings up Captain Rainbow, yes that failure (comercially, I liked what I saw of the game) that is STILL getting smash representation, Takamaru might end up as a trophy from the franchise (all theorically), he can still pull of a "Little Mac" since he is a playable character and still get a trophy for his Captain Rainbow appearance.

I am not omitting his other recent cameos but for my perspective this is the most relevant since that series is getting rep in Smash. For me Takamaru is so uncertain, unique, demanded (at least in the boards), but still has competition with lots of hidden and forgotten retros lurking at the :4pit:s of Nintendo's history.

I didn't even know about him until joining here, while the other retros we have got, came for cult classics like Ice Climber and Kid Icarus (internationally known and no I am not discarting him because until recently he was japanise exclusive) or iconic devices in Nintendo's trayectory like Mr Game & Watch and R.O.B.

As a retro for Smash, It would makes sense for him to appear in the Gematsu leak, since the mandatory retro rep could be of high priority, yet he isn't there.

Want: 9%
I can see lot of potencial here, unique moves but still, I am not fond of the character, that might change if he ends up being playable but until then.
I don't like to give scores this low, specially for characters so liked, I always end up thinking about certain characters supporters and feeling bad, but for this one I can't help but to stay true to my personal preference of the character, so I hope I don't hurt other's sensibilities.
 
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Xhampi

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Isaac :
Chance : 20%
With Devil, Dr Wright, Hammer Bro, Lakitu, Knuckle Joe, Lyn, Tingle and Shadow being revealed at E3, I think that surviving the AT massacre didn't mean much for Isaac and the non-revealed AT from Brawl other than not disconfirming them yet.
He still have a chance but it's pretty difficult now for a lot of characters because of the gematsu leak and we have no reason right now to think that we are getting more Golden Sun representation.

Want : 10%
I still hope for Golden Sun fans sake that he will at least be DLC if he is not include in the first place.

Takamaru :
Chance : 15%
Pacman and Little Mac are already there to fill the retro spot =/

Want : 0%
I rather have Sukapon or Muddy Mole who can both bring more unique fighting styles to this game than Takamaru and I don't want another retro at this point.
 
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SmashShadow

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Isaac: 35%
He survived the assist trophy massacre and is still fairly popular as a choice. Still, with 3 more confirmations and a certain leak, his chances aren't grand.
Want: 100% See signature

Takamaru: 30%
With more and more out there characters being revealed, a retro may not even be added this time around.
Want: 70%
 

FalKoopa

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Isaac: 35%
The leak has shaken my faith in Isaac a bit. Though I still have faith. The Demo disconfirmed a few more returning ATs (like Tingle and Hammer Bro.), but Isaac was nowhere to be seen.

Want: 100%
Please, Sakurai, Please.

Takamaru: 35%
I do find it suspicious that his game released on the VC recently. The leak is bad for him though.

Want: 25%
Eh.
 

PK_Wonder

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Isaac and Takamaru - 15% chance each
Isaac Want - 100%
Takamaru Want - 60%

The leak doesn't leave much room for either of these qualified candidates. They will certainly be at the top of the list for the Smash that will come out in 6 or 7 years or so. They are both interesting characters who would rep new series; one critically acclaimed, and the other retro with lots of references throughout the years; both with a recent VC release.
 

cephalopod17

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Isaac

Chance: 15%
In this Post-Gematsu world, only a few non-gematsu characters are likely. I do not believe Isaac is one of them. His last game did rather poor in sales. However, he has not been shown as a assist trophy yet but he was unlockable in Brawl so it is debatable to how much this means.

Want: 60%
Earth Magic and a sword! He would be unique and I have heard good things about Golden Sun, so I would be cool with him.

Takamaru

Chance: 45%
I do not think Little Mac, Mega Man and Pac-Man count as our retros. Little Mac was retro before Punch-Out Wii, now he is modern. Pac-Man has had new games, although they have featured a different version of him. Capcom has been neglecting Mega Man, but still Mega Man 9 and 10 have come out somewhat recently. At that though, we might not get a retro this time around. Sakurai likes to revive old Nintendo franchises, and Takamaru seems the one with the most potential.

Want: 90%
His inclusion in Smash could lead to a new title in The Mysterious Murasame Castle.
 

YoshiandToad

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One thing I haven't understood thus far in these arguments is;

Virtual Console release for The Mysterious Murasame Castle; Takamaru highly likely.
Virtual Console release for Golden Sun; Isaac highly unlikely.

That being said, has any newcomer got in on VC release alone before?
 
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FalKoopa

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One thing I haven't understood thus far in these arguments is;

Virtual Console release for The Mysterious Murasame Castle; Takamaru highly likely.
Virtual Console release for Golden Sun; Isaac highly unlikely.

That being said, has any newcomer got in on VC release alone before?
It's probably because the Golden Sun VC release was expected, as it was a really popular GBA game.
No one really expected Murasame Castle to get an international VC release on the other hand. It wasn't a successful game in Japan either.
 
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YoshiandToad

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I guess that makes sense. It's the surprise factor that got people...

...wait, Golden Sun is popular thus unlikely? That's a little odd, but I guess I can deal with it if Takamaru's both popular and a retro.

It wasn't a successful game in Japan either.
Wa-wait what? He's not even big in Japan? Everyone has been describing him as the East's Little Mac!

I...I don't even know what is going on with Takamaru support anymore. Is he now more requested over here than in Japan?
 

FalKoopa

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I...I don't even know what is going on with Takamaru support anymore. Is he now more requested over here than in Japan?
Actually, yes. He's more popular in the West than in Japan.
It probably has to do the fascination the West has with Samurais.
 

JaidynReiman

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I guess that makes sense. It's the surprise factor that got people...

...wait, Golden Sun is popular thus unlikely? That's a little odd, but I guess I can deal with it if Takamaru's both popular and a retro.



Wa-wait what? He's not even big in Japan? Everyone has been describing him as the East's Little Mac!

I...I don't even know what is going on with Takamaru support anymore. Is he now more requested over here than in Japan?
I don't get the logic of "Golden Sun is popular thus unlikely" either. The general argument is that Isaac's "time" would've been in Brawl, but he was an AT instead, and Golden Sun: Dark Dawn didn't sell very well. Dunno. I still think he's got a decent shot at making it even with one fairly lackluster game.
 

BluePikmin11

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Wa-wait what? He's not even big in Japan? Everyone has been describing him as the East's Little Mac!

I...I don't even know what is going on with Takamaru support anymore. Is he now more requested over here than in Japan?
He's not big, just like Pit before he debuted in Brawl, popularity shouldn't determine Takamaru's chances at all really.
 

Aguki90

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MAMA MIA?Those two are my Second most wanted but only one is second and the other is third! FIGHT

Isaac-Badass psynergy earth adept.
Chance:75%
There been rumors that he gonna be in because he not show as a trophy in any trailer or even a PIC of the day. Is one of the fourth unlockable AT like Barbara, RAY MK III, and Soldiers and Tanks of Advance Wars never show in the Direct and Demo except for Shadow.

Isaac have a soundtrack to star off Just like every major Nintendo franchise like Mario and Zelda (Im not even Joking)
He one of the first gameboy Virtual Console show in the trailer.
He is a talented swordsman but too is have psynergy that of earth to crush everyone. The summon could be a perfect Final Smash.
The djinn powers show potential of Special custom moves!!!

Want:100%
Is one of my top tree picks I want to see in SMASH 4 VERY VERY BAD!!!! I want him playable. Little Mac can stop being assist trophy, why not Isaac!?

Takamaru-Badass Samurai/Ninja powerful worrior!
Chance:50%
He only appear in recent games and Nintendo been ignoring him very awhile except with Captain Rainbow that he appear as a large cameo appearance and a part of the story, even LITTLE FREAKING MAC appear in that game as a forgotten characters like takamaru and the rest of Nintendo characters. Not only little mac is playable in the new smash bros 4 there even a trophy of the fat Little mac of captain rainbow confirmed by Sakurai himself in a Pic of the day!?

Takamaru got a high cance because he got a role in Nintendo Land, He got a attractions!? There not atractions of Star fox, Joy Mech Fight, Kirby and even Little mac dont have a atractions!?
Not only that the game said "The biggest Nintendo franchise in one game!" How takamaru is a huge franchise in the First Place!? Except in japan I think.................

He got a sword but he can trow Shurikens like the Miis and Greninja. He can use many magical powers. He can use bombs too just like every typical enemy in the game. He could do become invisible just like Meta knight down special. He got Potential to be a fighter and most of the moveset are come from the original game.

Want: 100%
Just Like Isaac is one of my tree most wanted for SMASH 4!!! Is chance are high and low but that depends. We need a famicon retro character model just like Marth, R.O.B. Famicon version and him is perfect.

GAME!!!!!
In the end Isaac is my Seocnd wanted and Takamaru is Third wanted. My top tree use sword to fight but there came from a diferent univrse that can blow our mind!!!
 

bksbestbwoy

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Wa-wait what? He's not even big in Japan? Everyone has been describing him as the East's Little Mac!

I...I don't even know what is going on with Takamaru support anymore. Is he now more requested over here than in Japan?
He is more like somewhere between the East's Mike Jones and Little Mac. Dude is popular, don't get that much twisted, but the game he's from came out in a weird cross space between the release of two of the big Nintendo four (Zelda and Metroid) and never saw a release overseas for his mind share to grow.

Any hype for him now is strictly because of the play style and visual design he could bring or well wishes for an updated title in the franchise.
 
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Groose

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Isaac: 5% chance and 90% want
Shulk used Monado Buster!
Wild Isaac fainted!

...but really, it's not that simple. Shulk and Isaac can coexist. I've argued in the past that it would be pretty difficult for it to happen, but I've softened that stance considerably. With Xenoblade and Rhythm Heaven (in addition to Punch-Out, Animal Crossing, and the Wii Series) getting characters in, it leaves Golden Sun as pretty much the biggest franchise with a viable character remaining. As such, it's pretty hard to write Isaac out of the picture. Additionally, it is somewhat suspicious that we haven't seen him yet; he's the only assist left that I'd doubt they'd completely cut who hasn't been shown.

Overall, because Isaac has the power of a moderately-large series and a pretty high degree of popularity driving him forward, I have him in a tie with Dixie, Takamaru, and Waddle Dee for the spot of third-most likely non-Gematsu newcomer. I just don't think that's very likely at all.

As for want? Sure, why not? A magical sworduser could be pretty interesting, and it's always a blast to see a popular, yet unexpected, character to get in. His design is pretty cool, as well! Now that I'm confident in Shulk's odds, I'm less afraid that his inclusion would mean Shulk's exclusion, and I'd actually really like to see the duo fight.


Takamaru: 5% chance and 66% want
Although there are a lot of valid candidates for a revival, Takamaru just has more going for him than the others. He's been referenced in a bunch of titles, his games are starting to see international rerelease, and he's been considered in the past by The Creator. When all of these things are put together, it makes him a prime candidate for the spot as the game's "Retro." Finally, both precedent and the words of The Creator imply that a "Retro" character is a very real possibility.

One thing that does kind of make me have a bit of doubt about a Retro character are all of the "Semi-Retro" characters we've been getting. Mega Man and Pac-Man (especially the later) are both bringing a lot of 1980s content to the table; although they are icons that have survived through the modern age, they are being portrayed in a "Retro" style. Additionally, Little Mac is primarily depicted as a "Western" character (just look at that trailer!), but he's also being played up as "Retro" fighter as well. With this considered, it's a very real possibility that the team thinks they've delivered a "Retro" character already.

Overall, I still have a "Retro" character as the second most likely type of newcomer. I feel that only Donkey Kong is more likely to see a newcomer before a guy like Takamaru. That said, because I don't really think we're getting any non-Gematsu newcomers, I can't give even the most likely Retro a high score.

I do want him, though. I could dig a projectile-based swordsman that I could pit in a battle against Link. I think that would be pretty neat. Oh, and it would be fun for the Ninja vs. Samurai matches. That said, I don't have any attachment to the character, so I can't go too high.

DAY OVER

!
 
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Groose

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Isaac
30.40% chance (was 38.33%)
72.56% want (was 68.42%)

Isaac's chance score may have fallen a bit, but his want score has increased by a pretty noticeably margin as well; it's looking more and more like he'll be a really popular character who doesn't make the cut rather than a moderately popular character who could go either way. Still, his chance score is still high enough to show that we think a golden ray of sunlight could shine down upon him yet.

Takamaru
38.12% chance (was 46.06%)
58.21% want (was 57.21%)

Although Takamaru's chance score fell by virtually the same margin as Isaac's (no, look, it's actually freakishly close), the want increase Takamaru received was only incidental. Even so, he's still one of our most likely and most wanted characters. He may not be a ninja, but he may still very well be lurking in the shadows, waiting for a chance to reveal himself.

We just spent some time talking very highly of veterans--just take a look at the scores we gave to Mewtwo and Jiggs--but now comes the time when there will be a lot of negativity. Solid Snake and Lucas are coming back to town! Last time we rated Snake, we finally broke down and called him unlikely, breaking a streak of him defying expectations and scoring highly. We rated Lucas pretty highly, though, but I expect that will change--Sal's most recent leak hasn't made people very optimistic in him. Please rate Solid Snake and Lucas in today's round.

Tomorrow is a FIRE EMBLEM DISCUSSION! Yup, Robin and Lucina are back; do they have the gear to beat Chrom? Please predict how they'll do.
 

BluePikmin11

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Snake Chance: 45% It's a 50/50 from me, though it's 45% mainly because I thought Snake's best shot was at E3. I don''t really have much to say about him now other than he's definitely in the danger zone of being cut.

Lucas Chance: 15% Assuming the Salromano leak is true, I gonna have to make his chances into 15% due to "likely being cut." He definitely has the merits to come back, but unfortunately, inevitable time constraints (which they are making last minute clones like in Brawl potentially right now) had to be in Lucas' way to making in the main roster. His chances don't look too hot now.

Robin Prediction: 8.67% I expect his chances are going to rip and shred by the Gematsu leak.
Lucina Prediction: 4.23% Same thing for Lucina.
 
D

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Snake and Lucas have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated these two, check to see what you've said on their days!

Snake. Snake. Snaaaaaaaaake...
Chance:
5%

I feel lazy, so how about I quote myself again?
While Sakurai said that he hasn't planned to cut anyone, he also said that he doesn't have the time to bring every character in Smash back into SSB4. This mean that cuts are inevitable.
Kojima messing with others is definitely something that he is known for, but how about I play devil's advocate. Now, he smiled when he said this quote; this means that he knows something we don't and possibly that he could be in Smash. However, what if Kojima didn't expect a question like this during that livestream? What if he smiled at the irony or something? It's possible that he is going to give no hope to Snake returning to make his return more glorious, but he could possibly not be in the game.

Now, why is Snake at a low score?
Snake isn't that obvious to me as Sonic is. If 3rd parties are going to be a thing in future games, Sonic is practically guaranteed; Snake can't match to the hype, fandom, and demand Sonic has. Remember why Brawl was delayed? It was to put Sonic in the game. Snake was put in by personal request and wasn't demanded prior to E3 2006. Fans enjoyed his inclusion and are demanding for him to return; this helps in his favor. However, this barely changes the fact that he is in the most danger of getting cut.
Konami doesn't have the best relationship with Nintendo right now it seems like. They outright dismissed the Wii U and aren't putting any retail or digital games on the system. Oh wait... they are! But... they are old-school Castlevania games. Heck, a Castlevania game on the 3DS got an HD remake on the Xbox 360 and PS3... but not the Wii U. Same case with MGSV; every system is getting this game... except for the Wii U. Nintendo, on the other hand, are struggling right now with the Wii U. Snake would be a massive double-edged sword. While Snake will get mature fans to buy the Wii U, owners of the Wii U could potentially buy an Xbox or PlayStation to play MGSV, which would hurt Nintendo in the process. From a business standpoint, this is rather risky. While Sakurai can put in Snake on his own accord, I bet that there could be outside influences that are probably going to stand in and prevent his inclusion.
Lastly, we don't know how many 3rd party characters will get in. If there are 4, Snake will definitely get in. If there are 3, then he is absolutely screwed. Why? Because of Pac-Man. I bet that Pac-Man would be at a higher priority than Snake is. Namco is working on the game and I bet that they would like to get represented in Smash in some form and Pac-Man has a great amount of demand to him. Pac-Man is nearly inevitable at this point; he is most likely going to get in (90%), meaning Snake has to hope for 4 slots. Since Sakurai said that there won't be too many 3rd party characters, 3 seems like a safe bet.
Overall, I cannot see Snake get in Smash at all.
To add on, not seeing Snake in the Direct is very, very concerning. As such, I had to adjust my rating. With Ground Zeroes being released recently, you think that Sakurai would confirm him... but he didn't. Granted, it would make sense that he didn't because that would be promoting a game on rival consoles. It's important to note that the Special Flag item is in this game, which would most likely be Namco's equivalent to the Assist Trophy where Namco characters are summoned. This helps Pac-Man's case even more so as it shows that Namco would definitely receive higher priority than Konami (though, that fact was a given) (Pac-Man currently has a 93% from me). One minor thing to note is that Snake is no longer the Brawl veteran that is in the most danger of getting cut; Squirtle and Ivysaur are as Transformations are removed (Snake's 8% to Squirtle's and Ivysaur's 7%). Also, I am not lowering my score because Sheik is now using grenades.
EDIT: One more thing that I want to mention is that we have seen a recent trend with the newcomers. Characters like Wii Fit Trainer, Greninja, and Rosalina are all uprising characters that have a future with Nintendo. The same can be said for revived newcomers like Palutena and the confirmed Little Mac as well as possible newcomers like Shulk and Chrom. These characters are not only popular, but they can promote their games on Nintendo consoles. This same thing is extended to Sonic; he was in Brawl, but he definitely has a future with Nintendo and he can help promote the Wii U. Snake doesn't really have a future with Nintendo and putting him in would promote a rival console, which wouldn't be good at all when the Wii U is in a troubled state.
I will give Snake one more chance. If he isn't revealed at E3 this year, I am considering him to be done and just give him a 1% chance.
Well, it looks like Sakurai has proven me wrong. When I said that last statement, I was sure that we would get a summer release. Now that the game has been delayed, August is now his last stand. If he isn't confirmed then, he's done.
I'm more skeptical on Snake because of how the Pac-Man reveal was handled and how Sakurai has been promoting it. Sakurai has been emphasizing the battle between Mario, Sonic, Mega Man, and Pac-Man, four of gaming's biggest icons. The fact that they are doing this and Snake is absent? I'm highly questioning if he did make it in the game or not.
I might be proven wrong in the August Direct, so we'll see then.
Want: 0%
Let me quote myself again:
I just want to reiterate something. I don't hate Snake. I like Snake. He is a freaking awesome character and I absolutely love his moveset! I still play as him sometimes in Brawl! Regardless... I want to see him go. When it comes to 3rd party characters, my mindset is to have 2 permanent members on the roster, being Sonic and Mega Man, and maybe have 1 or 2 rotate in between (if Bomberman makes it in, make that 3 permanent members).
Now, there are a multitude of reasons why I don't want Snake in Smash:
1. In a game about Nintendo's All-Stars, he isn't one at all and he is more of a Sony character. I can heavily justify Sonic and Mega Man; they both absolutely deserve to be in Smash and they are like Nintendo characters despite not being owned by them. Pac-Man, I can't justify too much, but he still has a rich history with Nintendo. Snake barely has any connection with Nintendo and yet he got in. It makes me mad as it contradicts what this game is about.
2. Snake getting cut gives me a good reason to go back and play Brawl. I was mystified when Mewtwo was cut as he shouldn't have been. The others, however, were fairly predictable cuts. If I want to play as Dr. Mario, Young Link, Pichu, and Roy, it gives me a good reason to play Melee. Snake getting cut would give me more of a reason to still play Brawl.
3. Let's say that what Kojima says is true and that Snake is not in the game. If that is the case, then I definitely don't want him to return. In Brawl, Sonic's addition not only delayed the game, but it resulted in Mewtwo and Roy getting cut. When I found this out, I was upset, but I didn't mind it in the end because Sonic was a character that I was wanting, hoping, and expecting to get in Smash. If Snake gets in Smash, he may potentially delay the game and might cut veterans that shouldn't be cut or result in removing a newcomer that we would have been looking forward to. The payoff to bring him back is not worth it in the long run.
4. I have a dream. My dream is Bomberman getting in Smash and fighting against Luigi, Mario, and Sonic, my childhood heroes. If Snake got cut, the pathway for Bomberman getting in Smash slightly opens for him. I've waited for 15 years for him to get into Smash; I want this wait to end already. Why did you die on me, Hudson? ;-;
That is why I want Snake to get cut. It's critical for me that he is. I will sympathize with the Snake fans and mains, but I want him gone.
And done.

Lucas
Chance:
50%

The Gematsu leak is looking more and more real. Lucas wouldn't be entirely in danger if he wasn't mentioned in it. As it stands, I think that it could go either way.
Between the two Mother boys, Ness always had the edge to me. No, not because he is a part of the Original 12, but he is often seen as the face or icon of Mother to some people. He introduced Mother and EarthBound to a large group of people who absolutely haven't heard of this series. What also helps his case is the fact that people can now play EarthBound on the Wii U's Virtual Console, meaning that more people can experience his game and story.
Mother 3 has been demanded to come over to America time and time again, yet nothing has really been done (except for it getting mentioned at E3's Digital Event, but does that really mean anything?). People in America don't have the blessing of playing this game unless they import it or play it via emulator. So, he is more unknown than Ness. Heck, I would even argue that Lucas is more unknown than Shulk at this point.
I will put him at 50/50 nearly because of the Gematsu leak. I wouldn't be surprised if he made it in. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't.
For the record, if we rated Ness, I would give him a 100% in chance. There is no doubt in my mind that he would return.
Want: 0%
I would be upset for the people who main him and the loss of Mother 3 content, but I wouldn't care if he got cut. I have Ness and that's good enough for me!
If Mother 3 was released on the Virtual Console, you bet I would get it! As it stands... eh.
At least play EarthBound once in your life.

Robin Prediction: 14.48%
The scales have been tipped in Chrom's favor. Despite this, he still has a saving grace in his uniqueness, something that Chrom lacks in or barely has.
Lucina Prediction: 9.93%
So she's challenging her fate, eh? Things are about to get ugly...

Hopefully, we will be given some sympathy tomorrow.
Also, I made a Fire Emblem chart. Better late than never to make one I suppose.
 

Louie G.

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 21, 2013
Messages
9,743
Location
Rhythm Heaven
Snake:

Chance: 15%
Ouch, this one hurts a little. I loved Snake's originality in Brawl, but to me there's just no way he's coming back. Pac-Man is being treated as the last third party, and the "Snake Returns" tweet ended up being a fluke (I thought E3 would be his last shot).

Want: 80%
I used to hate Snake. He didn't fit, I thought. All my friends played Snake because guns. This really turned me away from the character and made me hope he would be cut. HOWEVER in recent times I have grown to love Solid Snake. His moveset is awesome and unique, and he's fun to play as. The other 20% is shaved off because I really don't think he should have been in Smash to begin with. But it was fun while it lasted.

Lucas:

Chance: 40%

Lucas isn't downright disconfirmed by Sal. The statement was that there was argument about who to keep: Ness or Lucas. However Sal never said Lucas was 100% cut just that he was a likely cut if only one Mother character had to make it in. And (God forbid) there's that tiny chance that he (gulp) replaces Ness.

Want: 20%
I've never liked Lucas. Unlike Snake, my opinion never changed on the character. He's pretty boring, he doesn't feel much different than Ness (at least not to the extent that his fans make him out to be: his moveset is different enough but his physics feel like Ness 2.0), and he's severely overrated. The evil side of me wants to see Lucas cut because of how overrated the character is, but I don't want to devastate his fanbase. Mother doesn't even deserve two characters, as sad as it is. He's slowly growing on me, but in reality I think we can live with just Ness. I could care less about Lucas.

Robin Chance: 20.5%
Overrating will be pretty common with this rating.

Lucina Chance: 12.5%
Because of the supposed Amiibo tease.
 

Toxicroaker

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 16, 2013
Messages
1,278
Location
Everywhere
3DS FC
4184-2367-6702
Snake: 2% I have no faith in him. He will not happen. I used to give him about a 10% chance, but E3 has passed and yet, still no Snake. Also, the gematsu leak has provided a huge chunk of the roster and I don't think there will be enough room for him.
Want: 0% I may love his playstile in pm, but I don't think he deserves in. This game is a celebration of Kid Icarus + some other series Nintendo's history. What has snake done in Nintendo's history? His creator is a friend of Sakurai. I don't want to destroy what the game is about any more.

Lucas: 30% Gematsu leak said that they will possibly cut Lucas. That's all there is to see here.
Want: 100% Yes please!

Robin: 8.42%
Lucina: 12.31%
 

AncientTobacco

Smash Lord
Joined
Dec 30, 2013
Messages
1,543
Location
Crocodile Isle
Snake

Chance: 0.5% Snake's days are done. Like Colonel said, Brawl was his "once-in-a-lifetime chance". Everything is pointing against him at this point. He'd need a miracle to get in.
Want: 5% Snake never felt like he belonged in Smash. That's even more obvious now with the addition of Mega Man and Pac-Man. We already have all we need in terms of 3rd parties. I'll give him a few percent, however, as he did have a unique moveset.

Lucas

Chance: 80% Lucas getting cut? I don't see it. Sakurai wanted to add him even back in the Melee days. I don't believe the Gematsu leak anyway.
Want: 55% I've never played Mother 3, so I hold no particular attachment to him. But I also have nothing against him. Mother 3 is the most recent (and most likely the last) Mother game, so it makes sense for it to have a rep.
 
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Cpt.

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2014
Messages
1,250
Location
The New World
Lucas

Chance: 50% obviously

Want: 80%, I'd rather have Ness, but I'd rather have both.

Snake

Chance: 35%, hey the 3rd party could still let Nintendo keep him in

Want: 70%
 

Glaciacott

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 4, 2013
Messages
1,628
Location
Mintendo Noodle House
Must keep it brief

Lucas
Chance - 50%
Gematsu pits his chances as pretty much a coin toss, so that's where I put him

Want - 50%
Don't care too much. Ness I really care about, but Lucas I'm indifferent to. There's Mother characters I'm more invested in, but at the same time still respect him. So yea, 50% sounds good.

Snake
Chance - 5%
Smash Bros Direct and there was no third party reveal
E3 came and Pac-Man got the spotlight of a third party reveal, one Mega Man was given last year.

I really don't see it happening. The time to reveal him is long gone and Sonic, Mega Man and Pac-Man are the perfect third party trio

Want - 0%

FLAME SHIELD!


One time long ago I expressed my views about Snake in another thread in this forum, and oh boy, did I get responses.
Basically, it all boils down to this: Snake doesn't belong in Smash. Fits better in Playstation All-Stars. His addition would be a bit insulting over the addition of other actual Nintendo icons, and would annoy me only a bit less than the inclusion of three miis.
I'll miss the moveset, and his contribution to Brawl was nice. But the character ... meh.
Also, the very idea of Snake only being in because Kojima asking for him to be in it is terrible. Sure, Snake is iconic, but that iconic status has nothing to do with Nintendo. In fact, MGS5 skipping the Wii U is to me a huge nail in any care I may have ever had for Snake.

Predictions
Robin - 13%
Lucina - 11%
Time to challenge your fate, Lucina ...
 
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MasterOfKnees

Space Pirate
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Messages
8,579
Location
Denmark
NNID
KneeMaster
Switch FC
SW-6310-1174-0352
Snake:

Chance: 20% - It's an August Direct or nuthin'

Want: 100% - One of the most unique characters to ever grace Smash, would be a huge loss losing that playstyle. He's great in the way that he doesn't fit in.

Lucas:

Chance: 10% - He's in deep water, Gematsu saying as much as it's likely he's cut puts him waaaay down.

Want: 10% - Eh, wouldn't be a huge loss, and I have quite a few problems with Mother 3 personally, Lucas being part of that. If anyone has to be cut, it's him.
 
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Ryan.

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 23, 2013
Messages
1,567
Location
Tennessee
Snake:
Chance: 10%
Honestly, I think he has a small chance of getting in this time around. Smash 4 already has 3 third party characters, and while he was unique, it looks like Smash 4 is leaning towards making the item weapons look less realistic and more colorful. That would not work with Snake. Also, ZSS' final smash is basically what his was, Sheik has grenades, and I think there is an item similar to his side special.
Want: 50%
He's not on my current roster as I have preferences over him and I don't see him making it in, but if he were to come back I would not be disappointed. He was quite a unique fighter to the series.

Lucas:
Chance:
50%
I don't know. While they could easily give Ness Lucas' special moves through the customized move-sets, they can't do that with his aerials, smashes, tilts, which were all very different from Ness. I think Ness has a much higher chance, but why not keep both and just differentiate Lucas' specials more?
Want: 100%
I used him third most in Brawl. I loved using Lucas, he was an awesome character, and I actually preferred him over Ness. I really really really want to see him return.
 

chronomantic

Smash Ace
Joined
Apr 1, 2014
Messages
592
-Snake
Chance 20% - as it looks, Sonic, Mega-man and Pac-Man are the only 3rd parties reps we're getting.
Want 50% - I like the edge he brought to the game but I'm indifferent now whether he becomes playable or not.

-Lucas
Chance 20% - Mother 3 came out 8 years ago and the series is virtually dead. Maybe Sal's leaker is right about him being a likely cut.
Want 0% - I absolutely hate clones. Earthbound doesn't deserve two reps. It's time for him to go.
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,123
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Lucas
Chance: 50%
Going against;
  • Gematsu leak suggests there was at some point discussion about him being cut. Doesn't say outcome though so he could survive this.
  • Nintendo itself refuses to release Mother 3 despite fan demand
  • Mother 3 is not actually that big in Japan. Ironically.
Going for;
  • He could have survived alongside Ness. Providing Gematsu's totally 100% true.
  • Another weirdly popular individual in the west who despite not having his game released has garnered some fans.
  • Toon Link, Lucario and Ike survived. They alongside Lucas and Wolf were the most likely of the Nintendo cuts.
Want: 0%
Harsh but true, I don't think Mother warranted two reps in the first place. However, had it deserved it I feel someone like Porky in a mini mech would of been a far superior choice to semi clone Lucas. Hell, just about anyone bar Ninten would of been a more varied choice probably.

Sadly Lucas is the one Brawl vet I never really took to, and it's probably due to the bitter knowledge I will never legitimately play his game.

Like Brawler I'd be sad for the Lucas mains(I'm not heartless...well within reason; see below) but Lucas is one of the few I can easily survive without.

Solid Snake
Chance: 10%

Going for;
  • Kojima is known to misdirect fans.
  • Isn't a clone.
Going against;
  • Rockier relationship between Konami and Nintendo these days; I see Smash didn't convince Kojima to release his games on the Wii U. Expecting some bitterness from the higher ups.
  • He's associated more with any console company that ISN'T Nintendo. Most notably Sony.
  • Four 3rd parties may be a few too many.
  • Whilst a well known and popular individual his merits pale somewhat compared to the other three 3rd parties in the 'Legendary' status department. Open to interpretation though.
Want: 0%
My friend is a huge Solid Snake fan. When they first heard Solid Snake was going to be in Smash they flipped out with excitement!

But...we barely played. Turns out stealth is very different to chaotic fighting. Opposites you might even say. Smash ended up not appealing to him, and he never played again after the first time. I was left looking at Snake, who, at the time stuck out of the roster as badly to me as Goku or Ronald McDonald and wondered exactly who he was there for. The answer of course; Hideo Kojima.

I'm not entirely sure what puts me off about Snake;
  • Is it he'd be a better fit in Playstation All Stars?
  • Perhaps because he's not quite 'legendary' enough for me personally?
  • Maybe because I'd prefer Bomberman, the bomb guy, to have the bomb based moveset over a guy who mainly uses STEALTH in his main games?
  • Perhaps it's because he opened the floodgates to the very worst suggestions we've ever seen for Smash Bros?
    I mean Pewdiepie, Shrek and Goku...**** me. Even back in Brawl days, Snakes inclusion made the fandom latch onto Geno of all people. This is all because the goalposts were changed in Brawl.
  • Maybe it's Kojima's repayment for Sakurai's favour by wanting his series on everything but the Wii U?
  • Maybe it's merely just the fact he reminds me of the disappointment I felt when my buddy turned around and declared Smash wasn't for him after over a year of hyping up?

Probably all of the above actually. I won't miss Snake should he be gone. Probably the only character I actively want out. I'll miss his moveset but I'm afraid that's it. Can we nail it to a more appropriate character instead?
 
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TumblrFamous

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
6,070
Location
Gainesville, Florida
Switch FC
SW-8429-6803-3691
Lucas
Chance: 55%- I don't think he is QUITE out of the running. I mean, for all we know, Sal could have gotten that information before they delayed the 3DS version. The version could have been delayed for that sole reason to keep Lucas in! I'm just saying that we have no idea. And I'm not gonna jump to conclusions: it's virtually a toin-coss at this point.
Want: 100%- He's my first main, and my most anticipated veteran.

Snake
Chance: 15%- Meh. Sorry Snake.
Want: 15%- Meh. Sorry Snake.
 

Pacack

Super Pac-Fan
Joined
Jun 7, 2013
Messages
8,066
Location
US (Mountain Time, -7 Hours)
NNID
Pacack
3DS FC
0688-5284-6845
Lucas:

Chance: 30%
More than possible, but less than likely.

Want: 50%
I only really care about Ness...


Snake:

Chance: 10%
Possibly, but unlikely at this point, especially since E3 has passed.

Want: 70%
I've never played his games, I've never seriously played as him in Brawl, I never even knew of him until his inclusion, and I honestly don't think he deserved to get in Smash in the first place because of a favor.

However, I respect the fact that he has a sizable fanbase that would be extremely sad to see him go and that Pac-Man owes his inclusion in Smash to Snake. While I don't care for him at all personally, I want to see his fans get him back.


Predictions:
Robin: 15.01%
Lucina: 7.5%
 

a smart guy

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 5, 2014
Messages
225
Location
St. Louis
Lucas:
Chance: 40% Doubtful, but he is a favorite of Sakurai's
Want: 50% One of my friends mains him, but I wouldn't be upset if he left.

Snake:
Chance: 15% Things aren't looking good...
Want: 50% My best friend mains him, although I still don't think he fits the roster.

Predictions:
Robin: 10.4%
Lucina: 5.42%
 
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