My current top ten is:
Shulk 85% (RTC: 91.70%)
Chrom 70% (RTC: 88.82%)
Chorus Men 67.5% (RTC: 81.25%)
King K. Rool 65% (RTC: 68.75%)
Takamaru 60% (RTC: 46.06%)
Ridley: 55% (RTC: 48.41%)
Robin 25% (RTC: 25.83%)
Bandana Dee 20% (RTC: 24.72%)
Isaac 17.5% (RTC: 43.07%)
Dixie Kong 15% (RTC: 49.04%)
Perhaps the most bold claim is that King K. Rool, Takamaru, and Ridley are all still more likely than not. This is because I think the Gematsu leak is real, but incomplete. Each of these characters has a lot going in their favor; King K. Rool has the Kremlings in Smash Run (and potentially Chunky Kong as an assist), Takamaru has
Sakurai's comment on retros and the 1986 comment, and Ridley has the (debatable) teasing.
Since this in the Donkey Kong day, I'll go into detail on the King and Kong specifically today, but I wanted to get that out of the way.
King K. Rool:
Chance: 65%
In my opinion, the most likely newcomer not listed in the Gematsu leak. The Kremlings in Smash Run are the biggest point in his favor. It may not seem like much, but you have to realize that he included
multiple forms of enemies that hadn't been seen in
six years despite multiple entries in the franchise since then. Not only that, but he didn't even mention them after their reveal, despite the fact that they were one of the first enemies we saw in Smash Run and one of the most notable inclusions. Add that to the fact that the King is hugely popular worldwide and we have a likely candidate. The only reason he's not higher is because it may just be that Sakurai likes the Kremlings and wanted to bring them back into the public eye. If that's the case, he may end up being a boss.
Want: 80%
He'd be great to see, but he's at the bottom of my most wanted list.
Dixie Kong:
Chance: 15%
I need to quote this brilliant post my Groose to explain.
Personally, I am of the opinion that it does hurt her chances, but I acknowledge that it's not anywhere near a fatal blow. I believe that there's a bit of a difference between the situations of Greninja and Dixie, and I'll try to elaborate a little bit.
Pokemon X and Y certainly did not need the promotion of revealing Greninja upon its release. It was pretty much guaranteed to sell well, and the system it was on was selling like hotcakes. Additionally, revealing Greninja in Smash might have had some averse affects to X and Y's launch. Many people would have been swayed to pick Froakie so that they could have the starter that was in Smash Bros., and it would mess up the balance of starter Pokemon in the game. Additionally, I have to point out that Greninja himself wasn't revealed in X and Y before those games launched; Game Freak had the final evolutions of the starters under lock and key to prevent people getting spoiled.
On the other hand, Tropical Freeze was not guaranteed to sell well, and it really didn't do so hot in its opening weeks. It could really have used the attention getting a newcomer in Smash would have given it. Additionally, Nintendo really needed Tropical Freeze to hold strong for the Wii U in the first months of the year, so revealing Dixie may have really helped not just a game's sales, but those of a platform by thrusting the spotlight to one of Nintendo's system-selling titles. Additionally, there really wasn't any reason for why she couldn't be revealed, unless if she wasn't ready (she could very well have been a last-minute addition).
We all have different views, of course. I can see many different reasons why this wouldn't affect her that much, and I still have her as one of my most-likely non-Gematsu newcomers. That said, I personally feel that her no-show should be taken into consideration, and it's one of the primary reasons why I'll give K. Rool a higher score than her today.
If she was completed at the time of Tropical Freeze's release, she would've been revealed. No two ways about it. The remaining 15% I'm giving her is the potential of her being a last-minute semi-clone that hadn't been worked on enough at that point to reveal. (Note that there's a significant drop in my percentages after Ridley. I just don't expect to see more newcomers than those 6 at this point. That hurt her chances more than anything, imo.)
Want: 33%
She'd be kinda cool, I guess, but I'd pick another newcomer over her if I could. Most of the want comes from the fact that the Donkey Kong series needs more representation in Smash. So, if I can't have K. Rool, I'd gladly take Dixie.
Predictions:
Mewtwo: 70%
Jigglypuff: 85%
