Meh guess I'll post one too even though I don't know how confident I am in all of these (Haven't gotten as much of a chance to travel after this last patch as I would have liked as life is currently kicking my ***. That said I still play in a few locals a week and practice regularly, so it's not like I'm completely out of the loop, just not as up to date on some MUs as I'd like).
There's also certain MUs, like Ness and Luigi, that I feel like I should be winning yet struggle with, whereas certain others, like Mario, Rosa and Fox, I seem to do really well in despite the fact I feel like Pac probably doesn't win those MUs.
Advantage:
Small Advantage:
Neutral:
Small Disadvantage:
Disadvantage:
Need more experience to say:
Notes:
-Now none of these MUs are hopeless or unwinnable. When I say small advantage one way or the other, I mean just that. The advantages are small (55-45 to 60-40) whereas advantage/disadvantage is more apparent (7-3). I don't think we have anything as bad as 8-2 or 9-1 in either direction.
Also a few of these may be a bit opinionated. For example, I am really not sure if the MU is in Luigi's favor, but when I play it I always feel like a patient Luigi who knows how the character works can hurt Pacman a lot. Then again though, this opinion was founded from playing a very good Luigi every week in Finals of our weeklies who has by now a good understanding of how I play.
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-Haven't seen much of Marth or Lucina post patch, but it doesn't seem like their general game plan changed much. They win in their disjoint sword range but lose at anything farther range and can't deal with getting rushed down too well either since their only real option is UpB. This makes it that they have to approach, but also can't let you get in, making them work so much harder to maintain spacing than we have to, especially when we have tools to disrupt their already difficult neutral.
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-I demolished the only high level charizard I played in tournament without knowing anything about the MU. That said, it was before the last patch, so I did abuse the fact that he had no real way around shield.
That said, he has to approach, and his approaches aren't the greatest. People who have to approach but don't have great approach options tend to struggle against us due to the myriad of tools that we have to disrupt the neutral game.
His edgeguard game is similar to Bowser's as well except not quite as good (Better fire, but less effective at covering ledge options) and well, we don't really care too much about fire at the ledge if we time SideBs correctly. His spike is also not really an issue if you place trampoline when you see him go for it.
"But Fromundaman, Flare Blitz can go past our trampoline and punish fruit charge!". No, no it can't. If you pay attention to what he does in an offline environment, you can react fast enough to the startup to shield on reaction, and if you block it, free punish. Depending on what fruit you have, it can even be a KO punish.
Honestly the only scary part of this character now are tipper Bairs and his grab game. Unfortunately, unlike other grab dependent characters, he has no way to frametrap you into your shield nor is he fast enough to just run up to you whenever he pleases as a mixup. Tipper Bair is scary just because that move has range, priority and kills hella early. Watch out for it.
IDK, play smart and I feel Charizard should still lose even post patch.
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-I put Lucario twice because I am not entirely sure where to put him. He is a character who wrecks you if he takes the first stock, but has an uphill battle if you take the first stock. In a 3 stock game it's anyone's game though since he gets another chance to come back.
That said, his heavy weight hurts us a lot, as he WILL NOT die early. I thought that our ledge traps would murder him before playing Inter at Smash in Marseille and figured that MU would be super easy. Turns out I was wrong. He avoided the ledge after I got him with the 1st ledge trap and just recovered onstage, with a ****-ton of ending lag. Sure I would punish every time, but those punishes can't kill considering he would always make it about half stage distance away from me. When I waited near center stage, he would go for the ledge.
This meant that I had to cover the ledge and charge key for an optimal punish when he went onstage with his UpB.
This leads back to the weight issue... Inter survived key at 150%+ on starter stages, which means that not only are we NOT killing Lucario easily with our safe options, but it means we are actively helping him. We can be up all game and die from a single punish (This is how I lost that set).
Now to kill Lucario, it means we need to get either a good Nair/Bair near the ledge, both of which are not safe on shield, land a setup into bell (DA is not safe on shield), land a sideB (Not safe on shield), or land a smash (Not safe on shield unless ledge canceled with hydrant), or pull off some sort of gimmicky kill.
Basically, we have no RELIABLE way to kill Lucario safely BEFORE he gets to the point where a single error will cost a stock. Once he gets to aura+rage, a single anything will kill, and his SideB is a great punishing move, forcing you to play even more safe, which in terms means not killing early, which repeats the cycle.
That said, the reason why I'm not sure of where to put him is because IF we do get the first stock, it is not too difficult to time him out. This is the only way I can see us beating a good Lucario though unless they fall for gimmicks (Which admittedly we have a lot of) or we get some hard reads.
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-I am also on the fence about Shiek. I need to mess with the MU more while trying to implement some strategies Abadango was using.
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-I want to preface this by saying that Katakiri is a much better player than I, so the result of our matches is NOT what I am basing this off of. HOWEVER, he did show me during our series of games that MK has answers to pretty much every tool Pacman has, does not have to respect our ledge traps at all, has more mobility and priority than us, and can both rush us down or camp us effectively.
That said, if we can stay unpredictable with our traps, it can be tough for MK to get started, especially since we don't have too much lag for him to punish.
We were pretty much in agreement last time we played that the MU was in MK's favor.
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-Ryu... Someone explain to me how we are supposed to play against him, because I can't seem to figure it out. He feels like Ganon in that you have to keep him out and he hurts a LOT when he gets in, except that unlike Ganon he doesn't in fact have lag on everything, mobility problems, trampoline doesn't really hurt him much and he has quite a few moves to negate both our traps and normals.
The fact that he seems to rack damage as fast or faster than we do without needing to set up, that we can't space him the way we would most characters and that he kills ridiculously early leaves me at a loss as to what to do against him. Sure we can try to zone him, and it works for a little bit, but our zoning is slow and if a single fruit is grabbed the tables turn. Plus once he gets in, which isn't too hard with his mobility, he easily outdoes the damage we did through zoning him.
IDK... someone explain to me how to play against him so that I'm not forced to pick secondaries, because right now I ALWAYS lose to Ryu. I mean ALWAYS. If the Ryu is even semi-competent my Pacman loses.
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Tired of writing. Ask if you want more clarifications, please enlighten me where I may be wrong, or w/e.
EDIT:
I did fight some Warios in France btw, but I feel they didn't understand the MU well.
One thing I can say is that Wario cannot play his normal strategies against Pacman. We do punish all of his approaches, even the "safe" ones. That said, waft is a game changer and I could see a campy Wario giving us trouble simply by going to time, eating fruits, running away and occasionally trying to punish actions with Waft.