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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Megadoomer

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It's just two ****ing Mii costumes that have no bearing on anything else.
Why's this **** still going on
Mostly because it seems to point to two popular characters being included, and unlike most other alleged leaks, there's nothing concretely proving it true or false and no specific time limit like what the Grinch leak had (where all of those characters would have needed to be revealed before the game launched).

When it comes to this, I'm torn. I'm aware that people have gone to ludicrous lengths to make fake leaks in order to mess with the community, but if it's real, why would there be footage of Mii costumes so far in advance of them actually being released? (I think it's been over half a year by now) If it's fake, why would someone who has modding skills that (by my understanding) surpass the entire Smash Ultimate modding community at the time (or maybe the Ultimate modding community up to this point, for all I know) just make two Mii hats and then stop there? (the timer doesn't seem damning, considering that the timer in the current game doesn't have a 0 before the minutes - having a 0 there could have been a pre-release detail that was changed)
 
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Flyboy

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Okay y'all I wanna talk about Kazuma Kiryu. I know he gets brought up sometimes but thanks to me playing more than one Yakuza game, the thread having some great moveset discussion, Heihachi being off the table, and my desire for a brutal rushdown character in Smash, he has shot up my most-wanted list. I even might want him more than Arle on some days if we were to get another Sega rep.

I could talk about how he has a bunch of games to his name (and while the newest one doesn't feature him as protagonist he still is in it), and how he's popular, something something legacy, but I'd rather talk about how cool he is and how neat his moves are.

Kiryu is a Yakuza/ex-Yakuza, a stoic but selfless hard-nosed tough guy who finds himself embroiled in all manner of organized crime conspiracies due to his past. His games are high drama through sophisticated (and according to actual Yakuza members, realistic) power struggles, but also high comedy and entertainment through fun side quests, entertaining and silly diversions such as mahjong or arcade games, and deep and engaging beat-em-up action. He's a kind-hearted character who throws himself wholeheartedly into all kinds of scenarios and always ends up way over his head, whether it's adopting kids, playing with slot cars, or taking down international conspiracies.

As mentioned, his main form of attack is his martial arts, with his heavy hits and his iconic Dragon style. Every punch and flying kick he can hit you with will hurt, and he also has the ability to pick up and use objects in the environment to deal serious damage on his opponents.

Here are a few gimmicks I think could work for him.

1. Heat Mode - In his games, attacking with Kiryu fills a meter called Heat. When Kiryu is at maximum Heat, he can unleash devastating combo attacks and finishers. I see it working in Smash as a way to encourage rushdown play as well as nimble dodging. Each strike you get the opponent with will help fill your Heat meter. Each hit you take will drain it. Successful spot dodges and perfect counters will also help raise it up. Once Heat is full, you can now autocombo moves - for example a command grab now becomes a grab->heavy strike->launch. It would lead to some killer combos and aggressive play.

2. Stances - Now this is something we've been discussing in the Kiryu thread. In two games, Yakuza 0 and Yakuza Kiwami, Kiryu uses more than his Dragon stance. He has the ability to switch between four different ones, each with strengths and weaknesses. First there's Dragon, but then there's also:

Brawler - A well-rounded hard-hitting style.
Rush - A fast style with rapid jabs, kicks, weaves, and combos to stagger opponents.
Beast - My favorite, a slow and heavy style that can tank hits, send opponents flying, and automatically combos into weapon attacks.

Now, some argue that being able to switch between those styles in Smash isn't super indicative of the character's iconic move pool because it's only in two games. That's something I understand, but I do think that it would be a unique mechanic for Smash that would be really fascinating to play with. That said, another way they could all be represented would be for Kiryu to glow the different stance colors when he uses a move from the move pool. He has his dragon stance most of the time but things like throws, heavy attacks, etc, would all draw from those other styles to create a character that can have both classic and modern influences.

3. Weapon combos - I don't know whether this would just be a certain special or Smash attack, but I'd love a move where he pulled out a random weapon to deck the opponent with, just like in the games. It could be like Peach's turnip or G&W's Judge, with different weapons doing different amounts of damage (and one of them is definitely the bike).

Anyway, I know he's not super likely, but if you're a Kiryu fan or like the sound of any of this I'd love to talk about it. The Kiryu thread is also a good place. I just wanted to get some ideas off my chest since I've recently fallen in love with the character moreso than before and I can really see him working in Smash. Of course, whether they'd dare add a character or reference a series which in America is named after an organized crime gang is another story, but hey, it doesn't hurt to dream.
 
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Nekoo

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Guys, why are you all talking about the Cacomallow "leak"?

The Grich Leak is obviously real, they delayed Isaac because of the earthquake, Banjo became DLC, Ken got in! They probably replaced Incineroar who was DLC into main game, we know that Hero was supposedly base game moved into DLC, and all of the others characters probably got delayed because of the Pandemic now!
 

DaybreakHorizon

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I don’t see why “us not knowing enough about the debug timer” is a stretch since we literally know very little about this stuff.
We literally have a picture of gameplay with the debug timer, and the two don't match up in a significant way. At this point, Occam's Razor postulates that the simplest explanation, being that this a sign of Cacomallow being fake, should be accepted. This is further backed by the circumstances surrounding the "leak," such as Nintendo refusing to take it down when they have a precedent of taking down video leaks as soon as possible.
and no one staying in 50/50 or even leaning on likely is bothering y’all or not trying to use logic.
They're really not. Or if they're trying, then they don't succeed. The "logic" behind Cacomallow lies on hypotheticals and continually pushed goalposts. After taking multiple classes on logic, I think I have a solid enough grasp to understand that there is no logic in believing Cacomallow.
 

Calamitas

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I'm a bit bored, so I guess I'll also get in on the "coming up with codenames" fun.

Fullmetal
Sun
Ideal
Turn
Shackle

Those five will do for now. And to make it a tiny bit easier: That's three third-parties and two first-parties.
 

cosmicB

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Imagine if there’s no changes and you can equip Min Min with her own spirit, or fight the puppet Corrin with Min Min herself. “I found you, faker!”
I would be 95% sure Geno isn't getting in if that happened. We know spirit battle alterations are happening in the future, so unless Sakurai was only referring to future spirit events it would be the perfect opportunity to get the costume back. I'd also assume it would happen to other speculated characters with little representation beyond spirits, like Shantae and Rayman.
 

TwiceEXE

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Mostly because it seems to point to two popular characters being included, and unlike most other alleged leaks, there's nothing concretely proving it true or false and no specific time limit like what the Grinch leak had (where all of those characters would have needed to be revealed before the game launched).
We have seen, repeatedly, that Miis can show up as THE representation of a series. I don't think a Mii costume leak could even be assumed to raise a flag for a character.
 

GoodGrief741

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TheCJBrine TheCJBrine I thoroughly and completely disagree that anything about the Cacomallow leak has any leg to stand on beyond wishful thinking, but more importantly, and to answer your question about the animosity: people can have the best intentions and still be harmful. The dissemination of false information, or beliefs that counter facts and common sense, can absolutely be harmful. And, given the current landscape of the world, I can understand why people have a negative response to those kinds of things, even in such a harmless environment as this.

The Geno fanbase already have a reputation for being gullible, and hopeful to a fault. I don't think it's a stretch to say that a lot of people wish that weren't the case. So anything that can further that culture of believing anything that helps Geno, if it's seen as flimsy, will be taken that way.

Of course, and you can already see that in this thread, there's also just angry people.
 

Rie Sonomura

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at this point i just wish the modders behind the Cacomallow mod would break their silence

it's obvious that it's a mod at this point come on
 

7NATOR

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Actually didn't Cacomallow originate from a French Smash Modding Discord. Is that Discord still open?

While we talking about people coming out, will we ever find the HD Picture of the Grinch Leak, or will the people ever come out. There was a 4Chan post claiming to be the people, and there was theory MariotehPlumber had something to do with it, but we need definitive Proof
 

Garteam

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I just finished finalizing my most-Min Min prediction for how FP2 will go, so I'll get in on the codename game using them:

Fighter_Kind_Star
Fighter_Kind_Revolve
Fighter_Kind_Ally
Fighter_Kind_Dragon
Fighter_Kind_Scholar
 

Will

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If it's fake, why would someone who has modding skills that (by my understanding) surpass the entire Smash Ultimate modding community at the time (or maybe the Ultimate modding community up to this point, for all I know) just make two Mii hats and then stop there?
grinch leak artist never came out publicly either, people just flexing their industry skills i guess
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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at this point i just wish the modders behind the Cacomallow mod would break their silence

it's obvious that it's a mod at this point come on
How?

They can't recreate it from scratch. It's impossible to do so. They won't be able to do anything as is, because nobody would believe them.

It's obviously a mod and all, but nobody can claim it if they can't prove how they made it. Which sucks, too. Besides that, since they can't redo it perfectly, that also means they had no chance to show they faked it for months on end. Which also means that people will go at their throats for not "telling us earlier". We can see severe hostility in this thread alone over it, which is ridiculous to begin with.

The situation sucks. It'll never really be outright proven fake at this point till CP11 comes along and it's still not there. Cause not everybody will accept it dead. It was dead the second Nintendo ignored the video leak on Youtube itself. It got more dead when it skipped exactly two characters. At least Byleth was believable it wasn't ready for. Min Min? And that's assuming the silly idea that "time" is a factor(when we have no clue how development works for that to be actual evidence. Just a decent conclusion based upon... nothing tangible).

As for the debug timer, I forgot about that. That's the only other notable knock against the leak(not that it's impossible it can change at all, but it's unlikely) that has any actual real point to it.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Actually didn't Cacomallow originate from a French Smash Modding Discord. Is that Discord still open?

While we talking about people coming out, will we ever find the HD Picture of the Grinch Leak, or will the people ever come out. There was a 4Chan post claiming to be the people, and there was theory MariotehPlumber had something to do with it, but we need definitive Proof
i know some french modders on discord claimed to have created Cacomallow and said it'd be Grinch 2.0. we sadly can't verify that atm tho
 

ShrimpScampi

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I'm a bit bored, so I guess I'll also get in on the "coming up with codenames" fun.

Fullmetal
Sun
Ideal
Turn
Shackle

Those five will do for now. And to make it a tiny bit easier: That's three third-parties and two first-parties.
Sun makes me think Isaac, and Turn makes me think Phoenix, with turnabout being such a common term in Ace Attorney.
(There's probably some association with Fullmetal that I'm missing, because the only thing I can think of for that is Edward Elric lol)
Could Shackle be Akira Howard, because of shackling the Legions?

Here are codenames for a subset of my most wanted.
verbatim
barbed
bracer
knoxville
psych
pod
 

Rie Sonomura

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I just finished finalizing my most-Min Min prediction for how FP2 will go, so I'll get in on the codename game using them:

Fighter_Kind_Star
Fighter_Kind_Revolve
Fighter_Kind_Ally
Fighter_Kind_Dragon
Fighter_Kind_Scholar
Star is Geno, Ally is probably someone from Kirby (Star Allies), Revolve is... probably someone that uses guns? No idea on Dragon or Scholar

Sun makes me think Isaac, and Turn makes me think Phoenix, with turnabout being such a common term in Ace Attorney.
(There's probably some association with Fullmetal that I'm missing, because the only thing I can think of for that is Edward Elric lol)
Could Shackle be Akira Howard, because of shackling the Legions?

Here are codenames for a subset of my most wanted.
verbatim
barbed
bracer
knoxville
psych
pod
Bracer is Estelle Bright, Psych is Neku BAYBEE :shades:, Knoxville is.... Francis from Deadly Premonition? no idea on the others
 
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SNEKeater

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View attachment 276591

Okay y'all I wanna talk about Kazuma Kiryu. I know he gets brought up sometimes but thanks to me playing more than one Yakuza game, the thread having some great moveset discussion, Heihachi being off the table, and my desire for a brutal rushdown character in Smash, he has shot up my most-wanted list. I even might want him more than Arle on some days if we were to get another Sega rep.

I could talk about how he has a bunch of games to his name (and while the newest one doesn't feature him as protagonist he still is in it), and how he's popular, something something legacy, but I'd rather talk about how cool he is and how neat his moves are.

Kiryu is a Yakuza/ex-Yakuza, a stoic but selfless hard-nosed tough guy who finds himself embroiled in all manner of organized crime conspiracies due to his past. His games are high drama through sophisticated (and according to actual Yakuza members, realistic) power struggles, but also high comedy and entertainment through fun side quests, entertaining and silly diversions such as mahjong or arcade games, and deep and engaging beat-em-up action. He's a kind-hearted character who throws himself wholeheartedly into all kinds of scenarios and always ends up way over his head, whether it's adopting kids, playing with slot cars, or taking down international conspiracies.

As mentioned, his main form of attack is his martial arts, with his heavy hits and his iconic Dragon style. Every punch and flying kick he can hit you with will hurt, and he also has the ability to pick up and use objects in the environment to deal serious damage on his opponents.

Here are a few gimmicks I think could work for him.

1. Heat Mode - In his games, attacking with Kiryu fills a meter called Heat. When Kiryu is at maximum Heat, he can unless devastating combo attacks and finishers. I see it working in Smash as a way to encourage rushdown play as well as nimble dodging. Each strike you get the opponent with will help fill your Heat meter. Each hit you take will drain it. Successful spot dishes and perfect counters will also help raise it up. Once Heat is full, you can now autocombo moves - for example a command grab now becomes a grab->heavy strike->launch. It would lead to some killer combos and aggressive play.

2. Stances - Now this is something we've been discussing in the Kiryu thread. In two games, Yakuza 0 and Yakuza Kiwami, Kiryu uses more than his Dragon stance. He has the ability to switch between four different ones, each with strengths and weaknesses. First there's Dragon, but then there's also:

Brawler - A well-rounded hard-hitting style.
Rush - A fast style with rapid jabs, kicks, weaves, and combos to stagger opponents.
Beast - My favorite, a slow and heavy style that can tank hits, send opponents flying, and automatically combos into weapon attacks.

Now, some argue that being able to switch between those styles in Smash isn't super indicative of the character's iconic move pool because it's only in two games. That's something I understand, but I do think that it would be a unique mechanic for Smash that would be really fascinating to play with. That said, another way they could all be represented would be for Kiryu to glow the different stance colors when he uses a move from the move pool. He has his dragon stance most of the time but things like throws, heavy attacks, etc, would all draw from those other styles to create a character that can have both classic and modern influences.

3. Weapon combos - I don't know whether this would just be a certain special or Smash attack, but I'd love a move where he pulled out a random weapon to deck the opponent with, just like in the games. It could be like Peach's turnip or G&W's Judge, with different weapons doing different amounts of damage (and one of them is definitely the bike).

Anyway, I know he's not super likely, but if you're a Kiryu fan or like the sound of any of this is love to talk about it. The Kiryu thread is also a good place. I just wanted to get some ideas off my chest since I've recently fell in love with the character moreso than before and I can really see him working in Smash. Of course, whether they'd dare add a character or reference a series names after an organized crime gang in America is another story, but hey, it doesn't hurt to dream.
I really like this.

Sometimes I think that Kiryu in Smash should bring somehow the funny and absurd side of Yakuza games as well. How? I don't really know. I guess it would be complicated to mix a brawler and aggresive moveset with random moves and funny references to some sidequests of the series. Maybe that isn't the best idea lol

In any case, he would be really really cool to see. As you say, the stances are only in 0 and Kiwami, but they could be really interesting in the context of Smash. But they would probably focus on his Dragon fighting style, which I see being mixed with the ability to "summon" the items that Kiryu regularly uses in his fights.

For some he probably seems a super serious yakuza dude that doesn't fit Smash and the other characters at all, but ironically he would fit better than they imagine. Yakuza has the incredible ability to offer the player a great dramatic story about treasons, conspirations and more while also being able to change the pace and give the player funny sidequests and really stupid situations. The best thing of all? Both things don't clash with each other, thanks to Kiryu's personality.
There's a video that explains this very well:


Also, this moment is one of the best things I've witnessed in a videogame.

 

Calamitas

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Sun makes me think Isaac, and Turn makes me think Phoenix, with turnabout being such a common term in Ace Attorney.
(There's probably some association with Fullmetal that I'm missing, because the only thing I can think of for that is Edward Elric lol)
Could Shackle be Akira Howard, because of shackling the Legions?
That's one out of three! Turn is Phoenix Wright. Sun's not Isaac, though. And while I did consider putting Akira on here, they're not Shackle.
 

Opossum

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fighter_kind_leap
fighter_kind_badge
fighter_kind_sonicass
fighter_kind_emperor
fighter_kind_aubergine

Here's a set of five for people, just for fun.
 

Will

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Trying to figure out the motives behind fake leaks and leakers sounds like an unnecessary task, IMO. It's either for clout/promotion of their own stuff (Omni's Smashified) or about what happens 90% of the other times:

I'm posting false information on the web.

Why?

It's fun. Someone picks up a strand of false information, spreads it around, and before you know it, a panic is created. Then you just sit back and watch the chaos.

This was said by a cartoon talking dog and no video of only that quote specifically exists so it's better to just type it out. Feel free to waste yourself away trying to find deeper meaning in it, though. :186: If you find this stuff entertaining to you, don't let me stop you.
 

Garteam

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Star is Geno, Ally is probably someone from Kirby (Star Allies), Revolve is... probably someone that uses guns? No idea on Dragon or Scholar



Bracer is Estelle Bright, Psych is Neku BAYBEE :shades:, Knoxville is.... Francis from Deadly Premonition? no idea on the others
Right so far (Ally is Bandana Dee)! I'll give some hints for the other characters:
  • Revolve isn't related to guns. Think of synonyms for revolve.
  • Dragon relates very closely to the character in question's name, but the word "dragon" isn't actually in their name.
  • Scholar is the toughest one, so I'll give two hints. She's a female character who's technically already on the roster.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Right so far (Ally is Bandana Dee)! I'll give some hints for the other characters:
  • Revolve isn't related to guns. Think of synonyms for revolve.
  • Dragon relates very closely to the character in question's name, but the word "dragon" isn't actually in their name.
  • Scholar is the toughest one, so I'll give two hints. She's a female character who's technically already on the roster.
Revolve = Crash
Dragon = Ryu Hayabusa?
Scholar = BOTW Zelda
 

Cosmic77

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Maybe we should just drop CacoMallow for now and let even more time pass until it becomes abundantly clear to almost everyone that it can't be real.

After F7, I'm hoping that this will finally be dropped. Assuming F8 is even released this year, you'd have to argue that the Mii costumes were completed a minimum of a year in advance, and that's almost too ridiculous to believe.
 
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Schnee117

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Y'all still gotta figure out Oracle

fighter_kind_leap
fighter_kind_badge
fighter_kind_sonicass
fighter_kind_emperor
fighter_kind_aubergine

Here's a set of five for people, just for fun.
Leap is Frogger
Emperor is Edelgard
 

Aetheri

W/E happens don't panic...
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Codenames? Aight

Dolphin
Vessel
Cat
Hand
Delinquent
Collision
Relic
Football
 

LiveStudioAudience

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Realistically for this fanbase CacoMallow not going away till F11 is revealed though I pray the endless back and forth discourse on it at least monopolizes less discussion over time.
 
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Rie Sonomura

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Maybe we should just drop CacoMallow for now and let even more time pass until it becomes abundantly clear to almost everyone that it can't be real.

After F7, I'm hoping that this will finally be dropped. Assuming F8 is even released this year, you'd have to argue that the Mii costumes were completed a minimum of a year in advance, and that's almost too ridiculous to believe.
also, why "leak" costumes of all things? wouldn't characters be arguably more exciting?

Codenames? Aight

Dolphin
Vessel
Cat
Hand
Delinquent
Collision
Relic
Football
Dolphin is Tifa (Dolphin blow), Hand is Midna, idk the others
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Coding? Not sure how they actually go, but I'll give it a shot. Not what I 'believe' will show up or has a 'chance' but really what I want to see (since the only difference between peoples' Wish & Prediction list is just the prediction list has reasons why their Wish has a chance)

Fighter_p76_armsc
Fighter_p77_paper
Fighter_p78_swshp
Fighter_p79_botwz
Fighter_p80_seth
Fighter_p81_ssbt
 

blackghost

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An assist trophy has much less moves than a playable fighter. And that's the thing: the AT being made playable with much more work put into the character is very well worth paying for since they have to do new animations and everything. I doubt the general audience would be too upset unless they're like the minority of Pokémon fans complaining about Sword and Shield, which are beaten by the general audience.

And did anybody get mad when that Dragonball fighting game or whatever game it was promoted an assist character to playable in its DLC? It’s not like EA at all, not even close.
Fighting game DLC is not like pokemon dlc. new areas and access to pokemon that some people already owned is not the same. i don't think you are paying attention to dbfz. there have been complaints about characters in dbz having the same moves and normals as characters already in the game. Due to the artstyle and grpahical style that arc system uses in dbfz making character models takes a LONG time so when they have these side characters in a moveset implementing them later is a good logistics decision.

assist trophies in ultimate vary in how many moves they have some of them (springman and a few others have a very complete moveset including tilts, jabs, smashes, and springman even has a "final smash" like animation and attack. it just seems very unlike sakurai to make a decision like that. the whole spirit thing is different because the characters ar emore referenced than implemented. in terms of AT inclusions, i think there is a reason they chose to do guile and not someone like chunli. ATs arent getting upgraded within the same game. a decision was already made about them.
 

TwiceEXE

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While we're on the subject of leaks, what is everyone's thoughts about the League of Legends text post? I'm not talking about the legitimacy of it (because it's probably rubbish), but about how people would feel about a LoL fighter? It's inarguably one of the biggest games of all time and would be our first character from a computer game. Although, I get the feeling it wouldn't be a big hit with the crowd who are Nintendo focused fans.

I personally feel quite middling about a character being added. But I would be extremely intrigued concerning which character they would select.
 

Icedragonadam

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Hoping for the Smash Intern Kun to mess up and leak the next character's codename or stage. Or heck have the entire DLC character line-up leaked like in other fighting games.
 
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