Because Toad is a generic character, it wouldn't be as different as adding Waddle Dee for a Kirby rep, both characters are generic characters that ALREADY appear in brawl as part of another character's moveset, yes you can say what you want about Yoshi being generic but he was added from the get go to a game that Sakurai thought wasn't even gonna get imported, so back them character inclusion wasn't a big deal.
I strongly believe Paper Mario won't be added because he'll take away what makes G&W so special, the one trait that makes G&W stand out from the other cast. And think about it, Paper Mario has been around since the 64, I think that is Sakurai where to add him he would have done so by now.
Yes, Geno has been around since the SNES, but it was only until the latest game that Sakurai realized he a VERY liked character, since he appeared in the top 5 most wanted characters in his poll. Much so that he even got Sakurai attention and started asking about the character, I believe that he wasn't added cause they didn't have time to talk with S.E. about his inclusion, and think about it, Nintendo has let S.E. make 2 crappy sports games with FF characters in them, I'm positive S.E. won't put up a fight in order to give Geno's rights, not to mention that he can be added to the Mario universe and not get his own symbol, thus not considered 3rd party. I am aware that there are many hurdles to jump to get Geno, but the fact that Sakurai said he likes obscure characters also helps his chances.
Then again I don't see Mario getting 2 more reps, so Bowser Jr. is still the likeliest.
- And what makes adding generic characters in SSB64 so different from now? Pikachu, Jigglypuff, Pichu, Mewtwo, Lucario, Charizard, Squirtle, and Ivysaur are all generic characters, yet they are playable in at least one Smash game. There are no rules that said that you must be a generic character to be playable in SSB4. If it was, Yoshi would never be playable and neither would any Pokemon characters get in.
- What would Paper Mario take away from Mr. Game & Watch in terms of uniqueness? The fact that he would almost certainly be 2D? And beside, I think this is Paper Mario's best shot yet, with Paper Mario 3DS coming up. Dr. Mario was added in for a fifth slot in Melee, but due to being a clone, he was removed (Since he was planned to be playable in some way or form, they probably had no time to get a character in in place of Dr. Mario). Now that they don't have Dr. Mario to worry about, a fifth rep is pretty much a given and will certainly be considered. Now the question is, who will get that fifth spot? Bowser Jr. is the most likely, but Paper Mario and Toad are more popular in Japan, so I would not be surprise if Sakurai were to listen to Japanese demands and put in Paper Mario if they consider Toad to have no move set potentials (Which I disagree with, although I'm neutral on Toad).
- You forgot a few things which severely hurts Geno's chances in SSB4:
1. He is a very minor character in the Mario series. Geno has only appeared in one game as a playable character and only one unnoticeable cameo later on in 2003. Compare that to Bowser Jr.'s, Paper Mario's, Toad's, and others history. Nintendo first priority will not to get a very minor character in their biggest franchise and I doubt they'll consider Geno this time around.
2. He has lost a ton of support. After the miserable failure that was the Geno's alliance, the support diminished greatly. Geno will never gain the support he once had in the Brawl days again because people recognize that his chances are simply
not good. Even if Geno was among the Top Five most requested characters in SSBB, that won't be the case with SSB4.
3. What makes you think Square Enix won't put up a fight? Square Enix has much more important characters they will probably suggest then a minor character who's only major role was in a game fifteen years ago. Fans demands are not high anymore, so Nintendo can't really listen to popularity either.
4.
Geno is 100% irrelevant. Before you pull the "Retro" argument, remember that he did appear in a cameo in 2003. This makes him irrelevant, not retro, therefore, hurting his chances. He has made zero appearances in any game since. Square and Nintendo has had plenty of opportunities to get Geno in games and they didn't. It shows that neither companies care about Geno much and I doubt Sakurai will go through the trouble of getting an irrelevant character in SSB4.
Long story short, Geno had his best shot in Brawl and he didn't get in. As such, he will probably not be in SSB4, irregardless of whenever or not he would have the Mario symbol or not. Whereas this is the best chances Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, and Toad has of getting in a Super Smash Bros. game.
Being 'one-shot' characters shouldn't hurt their chances, want proof? Sheik, Lucas, Ness, these 3 characters are 'one-shot' characters and they're still in right? Fact is that Midna has a huge fanbase, to the point of Aonuma being asked and considering her return in a future game. Just because they appeared in one game doesn't automatically count them out, especially if the character is from a huge series like Zelda. I only mentioned Zant cause he's the next likeliest choice after Midna, BUT it could be that Ghirahim gets a huge fanbase or something and gets added over both characters because he's more recent.
I'm positive Tingle won't be added, he has had two shots in getting in playable, but instead he was added as a worthless AT in brawl, in the lines of goldeen, and like I've said, I believe AT characters are for those characters that are popular but that they don't have enough popularity or can't bring enough to the table to warrant a slot in the roster.
Besides, do you really want to see ANOTHER Zelda/Sheik or Tingle rather than a more unique character like Midna?
Sheik and Ness are not one-shot characters. Sheik appeared in the 3DS remake of
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, the N64 version considered to be one of the best games of all-time. That game was very significant to gaming history and was revolutionary for it's time. Ness had a GBA version in 2003 of
Earthbound. It was Japan-exclusive, but it still counts. The only true example is Lucas and even so,
Mother 3 was relevant enough at the time to get Lucas in.
When SSB4 arrives, Midna and Zant will be irrelevant as I doubt they'll be making an appearance in future Zelda games. Besides, not many people care about their inclusion in SSB4, myself included. Ghirahim has a small shot because of being the main villain of
The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Swords, but I really doubt he'll get huge fan demands for his inclusion in SSB4. Not a single potential Zelda character has high demands, making the chances of a fifth slot low.
I'm sorry but there's no way Dixie has more popularity than Midna, there's just no way.
Maybe K. Rool, but like I said in my blog, the fact is that it seems like Nintendo is starting to apart themselves from Rare's creations as much as possible, considering they went trough the trouble in brand new enemies, generic and boss alike, for the new game, when they could have just bring back the old ones and save a lot of trouble.
They only started recently to alienate K. Rool and the kremlins since the new DKCR game came out, like I said, they could have saved themselves a lot of trouble by just adding kremlins, but they didn't, so I figured because of that they don't want to have to rely on Rare's creations for DK enemies (or reps). I could be thinking about this way too much but that's how I see it, but if that's not the case then K. Rool will likely be the next rep then.
The DK series may be popular but I don't think it's worthy of 3 slots, sure neither is Star Fox but only Sakurai can figure out what Sakurai is thinking. Whether I'm right or wrong about the 3 slots thing, I still believe Dixie will be the likeliest character, but if I'm wrong about the K. Rool thing then K. Rool has a better shot, but I don't see it happening.
Also K. Rool didn't appear in Jungle Beat either, see my point?
- Dixie Kong has been with the series since 1995, appearing as Diddy's partner in
Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy Kong's Quest and as the main character in
Donkey Kong Country 3: Dixie Kong's Double Trouble!. She has since been in quite a few spin-off games and has also appeared in
Mario Super Sluggers, which came out after Brawl. She is more relevant then Midna is now.
I doubt they have started to alienate King K. Rool yet. He did appear in
Mario Superstar Baseball, so he has not been completely forgotten. Also, we shouldn't rule out a future appearance for King K. Rool in DK games. The lack of Kremlings and King K. Rool caused a huge back lash within the DK fan base and I don't think the developer of a possible DKCR2 title won't take adding those two into considerations. I would be very surprised if we never saw King K. Rool in another title again as a result of the back lash of him not appearing. One game is not enough to say that he will be forgotten anytime soon. Also, Diddy Kong did not appear in
Donkey Kong: Jungle Beat and Diddy is playable in Brawl, no I don't see your point.
Personally, I think DK is due for a third playable character in some way or of form as King K. Rool is very highly requested with few oppositions to his inclusion. Popularity isn't everything, as relevance and importance plays a part as well, but it should not be ignored.
Da ****? And DK's hasn't?
Anyway let me put it clear, the warioware series has 6 games total, and has sold more than 7 million copies worldwide, whether you believe it or not the series is a success, and getting a 2nd rep isn't all that impossible. And again Sakurai said he likes the obscure, and not only is 9-volt obscure, but he can bring a LOT more to the table than Mona or Ashley, mainly his love for Nintendo can make an incredibly fun moveset, using the zapper, powerglove, and so on.
DK getting a 3rd rep? unlikely, Wario getting a 2nd rep? more likely.
The DK series is popular and succesful but there's not much the characters from that series can bring to the table, yet 9-volt from Wario has nearly an unlimited ammount of stuff he can use because he's a nintendo fanboy, him pulling out weapons from other characters to fight isn't impossible.
Good luck with getting 9-Volt in. The problem with 9-Volt is that he has next to no demands to be a playable character. I also find demands for a Wario rep for legitimate reasons to be very low. People want Captain Syrup because she would be a female villain and people want Mona and Ashley because they are females. I absolutely
fail to see why Wario is more likely to get a second rep then DK get a third rep. Personally, I am against all Wario characters inclusion with the sole exception of Wario.
And yes, King K. Rool can bring a lot to the table. He has his Blunderbuss, his helicopter, his crown, and his Rump Waves. He has a lot of potential to be a very unique Smash addition.
yet DK has enough variety for 3 reps? da **** man
If Dark Samus was playable, he would be a clone of Samus in some way or form. Ridley is the only one likely to be unique that has a chance, actually he's the only one with a good chance of being playable at all.
Maybe it's not enough to form a pattern, but I'm positive we'll get 2 more retro characters, and Mach Rider got his look updated in melee, and considering there aren't that many retro characters to choose from, MR is a likely bet, and lack of moveset? I can make a moveset on the fly for MR but it would take me days to make one for K. Rool.
Being a retro character opens a lot of possibilities for a moveset, Sakurai can make anything work, look at pit and ROB's moveset, they turned out amazingly, because Sakurai isn't restricted to what the character has done in previous games (since he only rode a motorcycle) he can add a chain, a gun, powerful moves ala falcon punch and so on.
And that really didn't stop captain falcon from being hindered at a possible moveset was he?
The only one one with a decent chance of getting in is Takamaru and I don't think we can notice pattern until it has happened three games in a row. Mach Rider, along with Urban Champion and Sukapon was rejected in Melee and as such, will probably never be playable in a Smash game. With the possibility of us getting as low as nine newcomers even without universal rosters, I'm sure one thing they'll cut out is a retro WTF character and keep the spots for much more deserving reps.
mew = 1st gen
celebi = 2nd gen
Jirachi = 3rd gen
Manaphy = 4th gen
victini = 5th gen
What do they all have in common? they're legendaries that have never gotten a playable role in smash, and I don't see what makes victini so special that will make him playable while mew, a character that can learn EVERY attack in the history of every only gets pokeball treatment.
Every one of those have become nothing but a pokeball pokemon, believing Victini will get a special treatment over the rest is just fooling yourself.
MAYBE Lucario will return, but because Zoroark is so similar to Lucario it's a possibility, and one that has been agreed on by many, that Zoroark will replace Lucario. Sure maybe both will stay but I personally don't see it likely.
Saying Genesect isn't relevant enough for SSB4 is dumb, he hasn't been acknowledge yet and if my friend Oasis is to believe, it won't be years until he is officially, maybe around the time Smash 4 is released? And again Genesect is like the mewtwo of this generation so it's likely it'll happen, likelier than victini that, if the past 3 games have shown anything, is that he'll be a pokeball pokemon.
Mewtwo was a legendary and he was playable in Melee. I don't think being a legendary means anything. Let me tell you why Victini has a chance:
July 16, 2005, Lucario got his own movie and on October, 2005, Sakurai started development in Brawl. Lucario is playable in Brawl. Victini's movie comes up on July 16, 2011 and on October, 2011, SSB4's development starts. Zoroark's movie was on 2010, far before SSB4 starts development. Notice the correlation between Lucario's and Victini's movies. They both had movies three months before Brawl's development. Furthermore, the demands for Victini's inclusion is growing. Less and less people want Zoroark and more and more people are supporting Victini's inclusion. By the time SSB4 starts development, Victini will have a noticeable fanbase supporting his inclusion for SSB4 and Victini will be more relevant then Zoroark. Considering that Genesect's movie won't be for a long while if it happens, I can see them taking a more relevant and likely more highly demanded Pokemon in the future and that Pokemon is Victini.
You should also note that he is
Pokemon: Black & White's favorite Pokemon and considering that Game Freak plays a role in Super Smash Bros. I can see the director's biasness contributing to Victini's appearance as a playable Pokemon. He also has a good build for fighting whereas Mew, Celebi, Jirachi, and Manaphy did not. Furthermore, also note that all except one Pokemon in Brawl were in a movie or in the anime before
Pokemon: Diamond and Pearl because that game was released after Brawl started development. This time is different.
Pokemon: Black & White were released over a year before SSB4 starts development. We cannot assume that the same pattern will apply to SSB4 this time around for Pokemon characters. I'm not saying Victini will get in, but I wouldn't rule him out just yet.
Another thing to note, while I have my doubts about Lucario being in SSB4, characters getting the boot has only happened once. One game is not enough to assume that Lucario will likely face the axe in SSB4 as we have no pattern to follow.
Since Genesect hasn't been revealed, I doubt we'll be seeing him. He will be relevant, but he will not have enough time to gain the support that Zoroark has and what Victini will have in the future. Also, Mewtwo was revealed along with the other 149 first-gen Pokemon characters. Mewtwo was relevant from the moment Pokemon started, Genesect is not.
I think we'll get Black Shadow cause he's more obscure (something Sakurai likes) and can bring more to the table than another swordsman, you say that B.S. could turn out a clone, and if so what's to say Goroh won't be a clone of Takamaru, or the other way around? Having two samurais is stretching, and you can only do so much for a swordsmen moveset before they all look the same. Black Shadow can bring more to the table, is Falcon's eternal enemy, and we need more villains to begin with.
I understand Goroh is popular an everything, but he's already an AT, and like I've said before, those that are AT are characters that either need that extra popularity boost or can't bring enough to the table for a spot on the roster.
Most of the support I have seen for Black Shadow is that he can get Ganondorf's move set while Ganondorf gets an unique one. Very few people truly want Black Shadow because he thinks he deserves it. I am not against his inclusion, but I don't think that if Black Shadow gets into the game that his move set potentials will be recognized.
Also, Samurai Goroh could potentially be unique as unlike Black Shadow, they wouldn't just be able to give him Ganondorf's move set, people actually want him in because they think he can fight. Also, a Katana is a different type of blade then a sword. Also, I don't see why being an Assist Trophy hurts a character's chances at all, I actually think it helps the characters chances as it gives Sakurai the opportunity to look at characters with move set potentials and upgrade them to playable status.
Yet Star Fox has 3 reps in brawl while DK has two, funny how that works
I'm sorry WHAT? You're saying like Krystal isn't important to the SF series, which she was in adventures and command and somewhat in Assault, how is Dixie imporant to the series? she was just a partner character with no real background, personality or anything. K. Rool was important to the series but I already gave my reasons why I think he won't be in.
Like I said I don't see it likely that'll SF will get 4 reps, but if it does it'll be Krystal for sure.
Krystal has not made a game appearance since 2005 whereas Dixie and King K. Rool made an appearance in
Mario Superstars Baseball in Summer, 2008. Both are more memorable and more relevant to Nintendo then Krystal. I never said Krystal wasn't important, just that she is very irrelevant to Nintendo now.
Like I said in my blog, I know squat about FE, BUT I believe like many others that BK will be playable, he's the only villain to appear twice in the series and being playable to boot, plus he's Ike's enemy, that makes his chances even higher. Micaiah was the main character in the latest game, hence why I think that gives her a better chance over Caeda, who I've never heard in my life, if you wanna explain why Caeda has a better chance go ahead, but I doubt it'll beat Black Knight's chances.
Black Knight has relevancy issues and so does Micaich as they have not appeared in a game since February, 2007. Caeda is relevant, having recently appeared in 2010's remake of
Fire Emblem: Monshō no Nazo. If we get a third Fire Emblem character, Caeda is one of the most likely. Neither Black Knight nor Micaich have high demands for their inclusion whereas support for Caeda is growing.
Yes Isaac appeared in all 3 games, but he's older in the latest one, he passed the torch to his son per say. So if they're gonna add one or the other, it'll be the protagonist of the latest game, besides but characters look identical, what's the big deal?
Saki will probably not be added, and even if S&P gets a rep, it'll probably be the characters from the latest game, said game that was available outside of Japan (so was the original but only by wii shop) tho S&P didn't do so well so I really doubt we'll get a rep for them.
Starfy didn't do so well here in America and it did less in Japan, I don't think he'll be playable because, like I said, he got AT status (I've already explained this 3 times, look it up above).
I agree Little Mac is a shoe in thanks to the latest game, but I still think Matthew will be added and idk about the next one, I'm still leaning towards Ray 01, cause of a more unique moveset but it could be Starfy, idk.
- Isaac has appeared in all three games, making his relevant to the series and he hasn't just been forgotten. Furthermore, he has high fan demand. Combine that with importance to the series (He is the most important character in the Golden Sun series) and Isaac stands the best chance of any rep to be playable in SSB4. Matthew is important in the latest installment and is relevant, but not as important as Isaac was in the entire series (He didn't even appear in the first two games), not to mention low fan demand. Adding in Matthew would be a slap in the face for Golden Sun fans who wanted Isaac so badly (I'm fine with Matthew inclusion, although I think Isaac is a much better choice).
- Refer to my Assist Trophy argument above. Also, Saki has received considerable demand for his inclusion in SSB4 whereas Isa Jo has seen virtually zero. Relevancy keeps Saki from being a shoe-in, but I would say that since Saki looks the closest to a playable character in terms of model and move set potential he shows, I would say that he is the second-most likely character to be upgraded to Assist Trophy status.
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The Legendary Starfy most certainly did not sell poorly. It got half a million in America and 200,000 in Japan. Considering that the market is much smaller in Japan, I would say that would be acceptable sales. Also, refer to my Assist Trophy argument above.
Slime is a generic character, I don't care if he has his own spin off games, he's still a generic character. It won't happen, if Square is gonna add one of their characters it'll be from FF or Sora from KH, when these 2 series have been far more successful in and outside of Japan, while DQ is mostly a japan game.
Because Megaman has never appeared in crossover games? ok lol
Megaman is the likeliest 3rd party, but I still think Travis has a good chance JUST because of his creator, like I said: Suda is friends with Kojima, whose friends with Sakurai, chances are it'll happen, I think it's likely, and I'll cross my fingers, but if it doesn't happen it'll because Nintendo said no, not because Suda didn't try that's for sure, and that alone makes me respect the dude for his fantastic games and for his ballsyness.
- Disagree that being a generic character means anything. And beside, whenever you'll admit it or not, Slime is our best shot as a Square Enix rep. Cloud is hated by many Final Fantasy fans and has only made two cameo appearances on Nintendo consoles, Sora is a creation from Square Enix and Disney, which results in messy licensing issues if they went for him, and other Final Fantasy characters have either no chance at all (Tidus) or extremely little (Any Final Fantasy main protagonists) chances of appearing, with the exceptions of Moogle and Chocobo, but it's still very small for those two. As such, I think it's either Slime or zero Square Enix involvement in SSB4.
- What I meant to say that Mega Man never appeared in a cross-over game with Nintendo before. The fact that Slime has on three occasions helps his chances.
- Travis Touchdown only has Suda 51 involvement and some requests for his inclusion behind him. He is, in comparison to major franchises, very obscure and not a franchise that many gamer knows. Determinations alone is not going to get Travis Touchdown in SSB4.