So, let me explain where I'm at right now. Corps feels like town intent, but his actual content/arguments are scummy as hell. Orange, on the other hand, feels really opportunistic right now, but he has better reasoning, I think, than Corps. We have a lot of time, so I want to properly mash this out. I need to eliminate (or confirm) my paranoia about Corps before I can get anything done, so I'd like to start by (after this post, obviously) discussing in great detail Corps' action throughout the game and their validity or lack thereof. Once I'm satisfied, depending on how everything is looking, we can discuss either my slot or orange's. If I had to vote right now it'd be for orange, but we don't have nearly enough information. This'll be fun. This post and my next few are just me thinking aloud/asking questions, not necessarily constructing arguments. I want to feel everything out, and see whether or not Corps is legit.
Orange and Corps both just did a 180 -- from town reading to scum reading me, and from wanting an orange lynch to not wanting an orange lynch, respectively, but lets back up a bit, shall we?
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On twitch, I can agree. The worst thing he has done, even past claiming cop, is giving me the authority of the Orange lynch, yet taking no responsibility for it. "Hey, I'll trust you but if you're wrong it's on you not me!!" Most un-pro-town action ever. I've been taught to always re-evaluate your reads but that is the total opposite. Literally the most fishy thing I've seen him say. Plus, after claiming, he's become even more stubborn, and less present in thread. ... He isn't listening, and continues the same old story and just leaves. "Sorry, I'm mobile" ............
I gave you the authority for an orange lynch because while your arguments assume too much/are bad, they're not implausible. Further, I wanted to pursue this avenue with you to get thread discussion moving, and, in theory, confirm or deconfirm my suspicions about you. I know it looks really scummy, and I'd never have done it without first role claiming.
I don't see anything suspect about Aquarius. I find it iffy that Twitch keeps nagging at him for lurking when he's been here more than Maven has. Anyway, I do recall him being a one up man usuallly. Always in catch up mode. I found some of opinions likable, he thought of something I didn't and that's what prompted me to re-read.
Not lurking. Coasting. Big important difference. Lurking is just kinda chilling without doing anything. Coasting is being active, making sure you're everyone's town read, and then just sitting back and watching what happens.
Phoenix: Phoenix has pretty revived the thread and saved the game. I find some of his arguments highly suspect, think that he is misguided in some of his reads, but he's been SUPER active this phase, and has done a whole bunch of scumhunting. If Phoenix was scum, I think that he would have been content in the range of commenting on current events enough to stay relevant, but not commenting enough to actually help the thread significantly. He could be a really good indie trying to take complete thread control, but if he wanted thread control, he could've probably stopped at 50 posts today (whereas he has been above 50 for over a day now). Town lean.
Why 50 posts? Isn't that rather arbitrary?
TwitchyBanana: I've agreed with a lot of what he has to say, but I still don't see the turnaround on Polish without reasoning as town. If he gave good reasoning why he completely changed his mind I would have gone on with my day and had Twitchy as the second strongest slot, but a combination of his lack of good reasoning for changing his opinion and D2 roleclaim because he was under weak pressure from questions that can't hold water from Phoenix makes me second-guess myself. Still, I think that if he were scum, he wouldn't be trying to actively show other PoVs that weren't considered by the thread before, he wouldn't be trying to defend slots that aren't his own, and he surely wouldn't have put his opinions so far into the open. I don't want to see Twitchy die today unless someone can give me a REALLY good reason. Town lean.
So what happened to this? Please explain why this analysis is no longer valid.
Twitchy has left his vote on Orange from the very beginning, and hasn't been here at all to help.
Bull. ****. Remember my push on mist? That thing? That happened?
I won't accept a NL, but Twitchy is a last-case scenario. I still think he's townie, but doing a NL very likely won't save us a phase and we'll have more info tomorrow than we did today based on any flip, especially Twitch's. Consider me around to change vote until ~10:30 if thread sentiment significantly changes in Twitch's direction, but I still doubt that avenue will lead us to scum.
Again, why the sudden shift?
Quite honestly, it's mostly PoE for me. I've seen you completely revive the thread (109 posts in one phase is crazy and a scum slot would want to keep the game quiet), I've seen you try to fairly consider multiple perspectives, I've seen how you've handled pressure and kept pressure on other slots to test their reactions, and you've found small contradictions that nobody else had. D2 had a heck of a lot more content in a shorter phase, and I feel like that wouldn't have happened if you didn't replace in.
This is all true, but look at his content. All of his arguments, as I've demonstrated in previous posts, simply assume far too much.
An example is the infamous Polish 180. Until I thought on that situation knowing that there is a killer among the three of us, I thought he had a legitimate change of heart about the whole situation and just had trouble expressing it. Now that I went back and looked at the situation, though, he never actually gave a good answer. Later, he said that Polish was a VT based on the claim that he's a role cop. I think that he was trying to confirm Polish as town through that action in order to justify his read from earlier in case someone brought that back up, but Aqua brought up that a role cop can't tell someone's alignment (meaning he was lying about the part where Polish is a confirmed townie). In addition, Polish made sure to specify that him being a role cop didn't mean he was actually town in the post where he corroborated the claim. After that exchange, he seems to have avoided the topic of Polish altogether. Now that I consider he hasn't been at either of the deadlines, it could be that he has a sucky schedule he can't control, but it cold also be that he doesn't want to face responsibility for any mislynches that could possibly happen.
Hmmmm. Yeah, I misinterpreted role PM- and I later amended it, when Soup informed me of such. It's worth noting that you yourself exhibit a drastic position change here: what indicates, to you, that I'm ingenue?
. This seems townie in comparison to Twitch, who pushed Polish with a very weak stance of "Wifom and Confusion", while pushing Orange and Polish at the same time.
I think you mixed up some names here? Clarify please?
Orange kept bringing up Ran, and did more work than Twitch. He was fairly active D1 too. As opposed to Twitch, who was always in catch up mode.
Ran as in J/our day 1 policy lynch? Show me where orange keeps bring up/pushing Ran, particularly before Polish?
. Meaning, we should massclaim tomorrow.
I agree with this.
This... Is very interesting. I'm going to mull it all over, and hopefully come up with some conclusions. Again right now, it boils down to Orange being opportunistic, but Corps' pushes throughout the game simply requiring too many assumptions to be practical. ARGH! BUT! if you ignore his cases, everything else is good/seems town intent. Dammit you're making this really hard Corps lol.