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Heir to the Monado. Shulk General Discussion/Social Thread

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Sheddy

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when will you all learn yellow is the supreme color
 

SpindaMaster

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Red is where it's at. It's the color of fire, passion, and blood.

Oh, and the Monado.
 
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Sheddy

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for real anyone else watching the touraments I am hoping a newcomer is announce or at least a vet unlikely but hey I'm hopeful
 

erico9001

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Considering that we already got a newcomer this month, we probably will not get another one today.
Well, we're currently going at a rate of 1 character every 10 days, or 3 characters a month.

If all they announce is like one veteran, like Wario, I could see it happening.
I used a spreadsheet to try to see how many characters would be in Smash bros 4. As you can see, I found the announcement date for each character, compiled them to create the amount of days from e3 2013 and compared it to the amount of revealed characters since e3 2013.

I'm quite pleased with this, actually. R² is really close to 1. It also turns out I was correct back when the game was first announced in thinking that the frequency of smash characters would increase with time, but this is irrelevant.

So anyways, there are 460 days between e3 2013 and the release date for Smash bros in Japan. It's pretty obvious that by that date we would have all the characters announced except for the possible secret ones. Extrapolate the trendline out to x=460 days, and you get y=44.83 characters. Round to 45, unless we're looking at 8/10 of a character! (I guess that could be Little Mac =P). Add in your preference for the amount of secret characters. Personally, I see it being 3 only based on how I think there was supposed to be 2 back in Brawl before they got leaked or something. I think I read this somewhere a while ago, but idk, it's just a guess.

The equation is 11.7522786583exp(.0029106077x) so that if you want to test it out yourself you may do so without having to type it out. (google can do this if you just paste it in)

Here's a download for the spreadsheet, but I don't think the graph will show up.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/275120798/Smash bros characters.xls

And here's my data for the characters, when they got revealed, and the amount of days between their announcement dates. The characters fall under the date they got announced and then the time elapsed between the next character announcement is below that.
June 11

Mario, Donkey Kong, Link, Samus, Kirby, Fox, Pikachu, Bowser, Pit, Villager, Mega Man, Wii Fit Trainer

31 days

July 12

Olimar

26 days

August 7

Luigi

36 days

September 12

Peach

14 days

September 26

Toon Link

5 days

October 1

Sonic

37 days

November 7

Marth

31 days

December 18

Rosalina

8 days

December 26

Zelda

15 days

January 10

King Dedede

21 days

January 31

Lucario

13 days

February 13

Little Mac

8 days

February 21

Diddy Kong

46 days

April 8

Zero Suit Samus, Sheik, Yoshi, Charizard, Greninja

45 days

May 23

Ike

18 days

June 10

Miis, Palutena, Pac-Man

34 days

July 14

Captain Falcon, Robin, Lucina
... and that's what the math suggests! It's nothing complex, really. I've double checked all of the data, but still, if anyone find a mistake feel free to let me know and I can make adjustments. As more characters get announced, I can update this, but it probably won't change much unless troll Sakurai REALLY throws a curveball.

Feel free to use the data I gathered if you want to try doing it a different way. It took a while to find all of that.
Also keep in mind the possibility that they can break the trend seen in the graph. Sakurai's mind (and the advertisement team) could throw in a surprise like another 3 characters out of the blue.
 
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Spazzy_D

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By the way, the Smash 4 3DS Comicon stream is super entertaining for all the wrong reasons.
 

Solfiner

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By the way, the Smash 4 3DS Comicon stream is super entertaining for all the wrong reasons.
Where is the stream? I am curious now.

Edit: Nevermind, found it.
 
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Solfiner

*Those Who Stand Against Our Path*
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Dunban

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I haven't been watching the stream but just took a look.
Is this Smash? No Smash? I don't even know..
 

Solfiner

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DECKSON.jpg
son is Duckson because of the censor. D**k and Duck sound alike, so I made the gifs based on that.
 

MegaLagann

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Yeah on second thought good thing a new character or veteran wasn't announced on the livestream. It would be pretty underwhelming considering the stream is...let's just say interesting. (And yes I know it's not over but does anyone really expect a newcomer reveal now?)

So...who's gonna photoshop Melia's face on an animal?
 

zippy3214

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Oak Park, IL
Yeah on second thought good thing a new character or veteran wasn't announced on the livestream. It would be pretty underwhelming considering the stream is...let's just say interesting. (And yes I know it's not over but does anyone really expect a newcomer reveal now?)

So...who's gonna photoshop Melia's face on an animal?
 

Melia

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Yeah on second thought good thing a new character or veteran wasn't announced on the livestream. It would be pretty underwhelming considering the stream is...let's just say interesting. (And yes I know it's not over but does anyone really expect a newcomer reveal now?)

So...who's gonna photoshop Melia's face on an animal?
Please no. Unless its a dobercorgi, please no.

Edit: It's too late.
 
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