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G3S Mafia #4 | Game over - Town wins!

Xatres

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Withholding my vote for now, since I won't be able to watch the thread much tonight.

I'll be happy to hammer if it seems like people are in agreement with a Sokr lynch.
 

Sokr

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@Xatres, if I'm the play toDay, when I flip town, what will that do to your read on Potassium?
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Left/Top= More Town

Strong Town:Ruy (strongest), Kafk, Rake, Me (Weakest n_n)
Weak Town: Scary
Very Weak Town Leans: Xastrn,

Null: Magic Bounce

Very Weak Scum Leans: FroMarsh, Joey
Weak Scum: Sokr
Strong Scum: Kantrip


As good as Kantrip has been playing, I don't really like his recent attempt to keep Scary on the shadowy side. I also think that his continued push of Xastrn is suspicious. And his recent multitude of milt-quote posts seem to be more about influence more than about scum hunting. I don't think he and Sokr are Scum together, so I think scum team is probably something like Kantrip, FroMa, and Joey. I think that Magic Bounce could replace either Joey or FroMa. I think Sokr may be trying to just play more active and thus some of his posts may have been forced, but not scum-forced. I think Kantrip is trying to white-knight Sokr, keeping Sokr as an ally and getting town points upon a Sokr scum flip. I don't quite remember any interaction between Kantrip and Magic Bounce so there is a good possibility they are scum together if I'm wrong on Fromarsh & Joey. If I'm wrong on both Fromarsh and Joey, one of my town peeps could certainly be the Traitor, especially Xastrn. (So it would be Kantrip-Bounce mafia with Xast or another town peep as traitor). Either way I think Kantrip is at the center here and would like his lynch.
Rereading.

I get the white knighting, because I don't see how he has the read he does even with the lots of experiance.

unvote

Do not want Quick hammer, dislike of Xas increasing.
 

Kantrip

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Alright had to catch up a bit.

Man wtf town read bros I was planning on anchoring on you guys today, but you seem in such disarray.

Kantrip quick summary on why you still have a scum read on Xast? And a quick summary on Sokr town. No quotes needed. Just need a summary.

Sokr do you really believe fromarsh is scum from what you've given? I'm not saying I disagree, but I want to know if that was a pressure case or if you truly believe in it? Like what percent would you say on fromarsh scum?
Xatres scum and Sokr town are the exact two reads I've already gone into in detail. That said, my Xatres read has changed with recent developments and his responses to me especially. I really liked how he approached my points against him. He was very level-headed and willing to admit when my points have merit, an honestly he appeased all my qualms in the end. I want to see him live to the part of the game where he gets more involved to get a better read.
 

Kantrip

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Kantrip what is your read on Joey?
His V/LA is bad timing as it makes it hard to tell if that big post he made was going to be the standard of content level and activity from him, but going off of that post alone Joey is town.
 

Kantrip

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Left/Top= More Town

Strong Town:Ruy (strongest), Kafk, Rake, Me (Weakest n_n)
Weak Town: Scary
Very Weak Town Leans: Xastrn,

Null: Magic Bounce

Very Weak Scum Leans: FroMarsh, Joey
Weak Scum: Sokr
Strong Scum: Kantrip


As good as Kantrip has been playing, I don't really like his recent attempt to keep Scary on the shadowy side. I also think that his continued push of Xastrn is suspicious. And his recent multitude of milt-quote posts seem to be more about influence more than about scum hunting. I don't think he and Sokr are Scum together, so I think scum team is probably something like Kantrip, FroMa, and Joey. I think that Magic Bounce could replace either Joey or FroMa. I think Sokr may be trying to just play more active and thus some of his posts may have been forced, but not scum-forced. I think Kantrip is trying to white-knight Sokr, keeping Sokr as an ally and getting town points upon a Sokr scum flip. I don't quite remember any interaction between Kantrip and Magic Bounce so there is a good possibility they are scum together if I'm wrong on Fromarsh & Joey. If I'm wrong on both Fromarsh and Joey, one of my town peeps could certainly be the Traitor, especially Xastrn. (So it would be Kantrip-Bounce mafia with Xast or another town peep as traitor). Either way I think Kantrip is at the center here and would like his lynch.
Gotta have dinner now, will get to this after
 

Kantrip

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Left/Top= More Town

Strong Town:Ruy (strongest), Kafk, Rake, Me (Weakest n_n)
Weak Town: Scary
Very Weak Town Leans: Xastrn,

Null: Magic Bounce

Very Weak Scum Leans: FroMarsh, Joey
Weak Scum: Sokr
Strong Scum: Kantrip


As good as Kantrip has been playing, I don't really like his recent attempt to keep Scary on the shadowy side. I also think that his continued push of Xastrn is suspicious. And his recent multitude of milt-quote posts seem to be more about influence more than about scum hunting. I don't think he and Sokr are Scum together, so I think scum team is probably something like Kantrip, FroMa, and Joey. I think that Magic Bounce could replace either Joey or FroMa. I think Sokr may be trying to just play more active and thus some of his posts may have been forced, but not scum-forced. I think Kantrip is trying to white-knight Sokr, keeping Sokr as an ally and getting town points upon a Sokr scum flip. I don't quite remember any interaction between Kantrip and Magic Bounce so there is a good possibility they are scum together if I'm wrong on Fromarsh & Joey. If I'm wrong on both Fromarsh and Joey, one of my town peeps could certainly be the Traitor, especially Xastrn. (So it would be Kantrip-Bounce mafia with Xast or another town peep as traitor). Either way I think Kantrip is at the center here and would like his lynch.
I'm not trying to keep Scary on the shadowy side. I was just advocating against counterclaims because I was of the opinion that if scum fake claims a PR, we are playing into their hands by outing the real one. Seeing the response to that I guess I had the wrong idea about counter claiming in an open setup like this. Scary has always been town to me, although Xatres's and fromarsh's points prompted a reread (that I admittedly haven't done, but it's not necessary after his claim).

Explain how my one Xatres push is suspicious. And then explain how it's "continuous." I liked him in my first read, then I saw things I didn't like when I went over the game again, and after hearing him respond to those things I'm fine with him again and am comfortable waiting until more happens to try to read him again. I don't see how this is a suspicious continuous push in any way.
 

Kantrip

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Well Zen, you make some good points. I don't think you're right about Potassium but I am open to the possibility.
What points are good?
Making it so that no one can CC keeps Scary in the shade.
It's not like I'm suggesting to lynch him on that claim without a CC.
It doesn't look like I'll have time tonight for hunting quotes or engaging in lengthy back and forths (work is kicking my butt), but I'll go ahead and put this out there:

It's entirely possible that Sokr is scum and Potassium is the traitor.

As far as Sokr being scum goes, you can check earlier posts for people making a case against him.

For Potassium, I see it this way...

1) He's been holding a firm town-read on Sokr the whole game, despite admitting to certain "confusing" parts of Sokr's play. Numerous other players have noted Sokr looking scummy, and Potassium has yet to justify his reasons for calling Sokr town.
This is bull****. I have explained why Sokr is town so many times and if you can't see it it's not my fault for knowing him that well. I can literally correctly read Sokr 9 times out of 10 off of his first few posts. In FE:A, I asked him a couple of questions and I had a solid (correct) townread on him the rest of the game. It's just how well I know his play.

2) I have pressed Potassium more than once to re-examine his read on Sokr and to read through my own post regarding Sokr's scumminess. The first time, he said he'd get around to it, but chastised me for even thinking it was important. The second time, he completely ignored my request and ran off to reread Scary. I've found dodging questions to slant more towards indy/traitor roles than outright scum roles in the past.
Are you kidding me? Dude, I did reread Sokr. When I reread the game I looked at him with scum intentions in mind to see if I could fit it together. I even said I was doing as much beforehand, and then I posted all my findings in the post where I voted for you. Where is this coming from that I responded that way to you suggesting I look at the read again. I did. Seriously?

3) Scary claims, and Potassium's response is twofold. First, he urges no one to CC. As already pointed out, this is ridiculous. In a 2-scum game, pretty anyone would happily take a 1-to-1 trade. Second, he tries to swing discussion back towards FroMar or myself, except town sentiment is slowly moving away from FroMar, and he himself admitted that my last post was [expletive deleted] good and screwed up his read. Why return to me? Because his backup lynch (Scary) fell through.
Okay, I was wrong about what should happen when someone claims. He claimed super prematurely and I was startled by that and didn't want anyone to jump the gun. Thinking about it now? Yes, a 1 for 1 is an excellent trade, even if we trade a PR. But in the spur of the moment I didn't want a CC. But since when was Scary my backup lynch? He was a townread for me at the time, although some comments you and fromarsh made had me wanting to reread him (but I didn't get around to it before he claimed). That's not to say I found him scum at all, and I definitely didn't want him lynched.

4) Weak Meta-related stuff: Coming off a game where chatlogs/notes were used to clear and condemn players (FE:A), Potassium started posting notes in this game. Other people know Kantrip meta better than I do, but I don't recall him posting a single note in FE:A, and he was town there. You guys can let the guy who's been out of the loop for 2 years know whether or not this is even a valid point.
I'm trying something new with the notes, because in past games I just posted thoughts directly into the thread and often cluttered it with unnecessary stuff. This time, I'm doing that in a separate word document and just posting stuff when it's relevant/necessary or someone asks for it. I've found that this has really been working to organize my thoughts and will probably continue to do it in the future. But what the **** is you calling me scum for it just because I've never done it before? I'm scum for trying new things, before you even think about it for a bit about why I might be doing it? Jesus Christ Xatres...

5) IF Potassium is the traitor, then he's been placed in a terrible position from the get go. He'd know Sokr is scum, and yet also know that both he and Sokr are expected to have reads on each other lickidy split. If he ever tried to bus Sokr, he'd be screwing himself more than usual thanks to his own traitor status. If his bus was successful, half the scumteam is gone. If his bus failed, Sokr would probably kill him (I didn't see anything about recruitment in the rules). For his and scum's own survival, he'd be forced to stick with a Sokr town read no matter what.
I sincerely hope your speculation actually works out for you one day, but please stop doing it in games I'm in. When you're wrong on this I hope you learn how to read rather than speculating WIFOM-y **** every single game you play in.

- - - - -

I need to get out of this thread before I go full soup on everyone (no offense intended to soup). I'll probably be back to respond to stuff later or tomorrow or something, but I'm going through some **** IRL and don't really want to deal with this
 

Xivii

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Hell, I think Scary is better than Sokr even after the claim because I take the claim as null. But we don't want to risk lynching him if he's legit and we don't want anyone to CC
Haven't you had a strong town read on Scary through out the game? This seems to be coming out of no where. I think you were about to take the opportunity to get on the Scary wagon, starting from your #567. But his claim ruined that for you and the unexpectedness of it finally revealed your scum intent. I said earlier that my early reads are really quite bad. The reason for that is because scum doesn't have to make any moves. Blending in is all they are doing. Later in the game though scum are eventually forced into making moves. Intent is finally shown as end game approaches. Scum also tend to show intent when reacting to unexpected, sudden events. I'm pretty good at noticing these, but I'm not so good at separating scummy and towny behavior without these motive-driven events, so by end game my credibility usually has been destroyed from the leading of mislynches. Either that or I'm dead by then.

Scary's claim was sudden and unexpected. It interrupted the course you were beginning to set just a few posts earlier (#567). Since you reacted before taking time to think it over/see how it played out, your intent was shown. This was your only mistake. Otherwise your play has been phenomenal. With the notes and everything o.O
 

Sokr

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For Potassium:

As good as Kantrip has been playing, I don't really like his recent attempt to keep Scary on the shadowy side. I also think that his continued push of Xastrn is suspicious. And his recent multitude of milt-quote posts seem to be more about influence more than about scum hunting. I don't think he and Sokr are Scum together, so I think scum team is probably something like Kantrip, FroMa, and Joey. I think that Magic Bounce could replace either Joey or FroMa. I think Sokr may be trying to just play more active and thus some of his posts may have been forced, but not scum-forced. I think Kantrip is trying to white-knight Sokr, keeping Sokr as an ally and getting town points upon a Sokr scum flip. I don't quite remember any interaction between Kantrip and Magic Bounce so there is a good possibility they are scum together if I'm wrong on Fromarsh & Joey. If I'm wrong on both Fromarsh and Joey, one of my town peeps could certainly be the Traitor, especially Xastrn. (So it would be Kantrip-Bounce mafia with Xast or another town peep as traitor). Either way I think Kantrip is at the center here and would like his lynch.

Purple text means I find it interesting and worth looking into.
Green text means I agree with it.
 

Shun Goku Satsu Rake

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Just wanna say that if kantplay is scum then he played well becaue i had al but wrote him off.

Imma look into this
 

#HBC | Scary

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You've basically taken care of the parts I like about the post, and going back even further to a point Xat made about your play being "confusing" or even when Xat made the inference about Kantrip's early notes condemning you yet his read remains as town. With Zen's post, and your purple highlight on the white-knighting, it ties together with some of what Xat said about Kantrip keeping you as a town read.
 

Xivii

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Explain how my one Xatres push is suspicious. And then explain how it's "continuous." I liked him in my first read, then I saw things I didn't like when I went over the game again, and after hearing him respond to those things I'm fine with him again and am comfortable waiting until more happens to try to read him again. I don't see how this is a suspicious continuous push in any way.
I don't mean continuous as in since earlier in the day. Really I mean since the post he made before Kafk's first post. I voted with you just before then, but his response seemed pretty good to me, level-headed. It was strange to me that you got a "xat still scum" from it. And it was strange to me that you were doing a multi-quote battle. Seemed like you were trying to keep your hold on him. Said another way, it seems like you were trying to prevent him from being viewed in a town light by making sure that you kept debunking his entire post. As town I don't think you feel that was needed.
 

Xatres

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@Potassium: Don't have time for a complete multiquote exchange, but I'll try to throw together a response tonight. Sorry to hear about your RL stuff. Hope it works out for you.

@Zen: I honestly felt both you and Potassium came out swinging on me early game, which I initially chalked it up to some residual FE:A interest. I felt you both wanted to see how I would play without Dastrn present and wanted reads on me early. I'd say Potassium keeping up his case is more null than scummy. We both suspected each other last game at various points thanks to our wildly different opinions on good town play. The same could be happening here. That being said, I think his case on me was weaker than it was in FE:A, which I think could indicate that he wanted me discredited as you said. His notes felt like they were stretching to make me scum and stretching to make Sokr town.

@Sokr: If you flipped town, I would obviously be looking at Potassium in a townier light. I'd never clear him entirely based on one flip, but I'd be a fool not to reevaluate. That being said, there's a good chance that scum Potassium would still the need to town-read you, even if your town play was coming off scummy to others. Because you guys keep assuring everyone you read each other so well, you've set yourselves up for TvS analysis whenever one of you thinks the other is playing scummy. One of these days I'm going to end up playing a game with Dastrn without hydraing and we'll be in same position. :-/
 

Xivii

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I don't feel Kantrip's play has been coming off as Traitor with a Mafia-Sokr. I think that they are T-S. Once is certainly scum, one is certainly town.

Traitor's are afraid to make connections with their mafia mates. I don't think Kantrip-traitor would blatantly defend Sokr as he has. Furthermore, I don't think that the way he has been questioning Sokr would be an attribute of a traitor.
 

Xatres

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@Potassium: Like I said, I'll try to make this a quick response.

1) Yes, you've said you think Sokr is town many times and posted your notes to support your case. What you are failing to mention is that all my questions to you about Sokr came AFTER you posted your notes. Your notes didn't address my own partial case against him, and you haven't gotten back to that post since.

2) The big issue I had with your notes on Sokr were that you seemed to record facts that other players would call scummy, then call them "confusing," then conclude with saying "still town" without connecting the facts to your conclusion. It felt like you were stretching to hold your town read. Your answer to this objection really didn't get into any details, which is what everyone is really asking for at this point. You keep saying "I posted notes," while neglecting the fact that it's the notes themselves we're objecting to.

3) The meta thing was totally speculative, which is why I said it was weak from the get-go and asked for other opinions. I find it surprising that you reacted with the highest amount of AtE to the part of my case that I was least committed to. :-/

4) I get you have RL stuff going on, but responding so emotionally to my post is not helping you. Bringing up the possibility of you "going full soup" is downright manipulative, considering half the players here were in that game.

In conclusion: I'm always willing to be proven wrong and change my mind. If you can respond with a level head and point out where my thinking is faulty, my suspicion will be abated.
 

Xatres

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@Zen: For me the suspicion comes down to the fact that I keep hearing that Potassium and Sokr are so great at reading each other. I think this may skew the more traditional traitor play people are used to seeing.

I mentioned this in FE:A (in a case against Potassium, no less >_>), but I'm not terribly comfortable setting up hard and fast TvS scenarios. I think this early in the game there's enough uncertainty that there's a good chance of causing two mislynches if both players are town. I'm not saying this to say your argument is faulty, I'm just offering my own reservations with this particular line of thinking.
 

Xivii

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Normally I'd agree with you with regard to setting up TvS scenarios, but there are scenarios when it's very likely and that's when it's with "duo" players. And by a duo players, I mean two players who are simply the best at reading each other. Two players who know the meta more deeply on each other than other players do.

Kantrip-Sokr
Xat-Das
Rake-Orbo

For instance I made this claim both days in FE: D1 on soup and D2 on Ran. You said it yourself that after soup's death you were ready to come after me D2, and after Ran's death everyone was ready to come after me D3. When the cohesion between duo players is off, most often one of them is scum. Not always, but often.
 

Sokr

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I see you there Masq. You gonna post?
Inb4 Zen/Rake scum team (this is 95% joking and 5% super weak reasoning)

I'll elaborate since people will be asking me about it anyways. Zen and Rake have been two of this game's most influential roles (if not THE most). I have noticed that they seem to be jumping between people and tunneling them causing discord and confusion among town. The deadline is tomorrow and I don't think we're close to having a solid play. This isn't BiM. We can't just shoot someone before deadline. People have to agree. Rake has tunneled Scary, got a wagon on him, then switched to someone else (me? I can't remember if there was anyone in between) tunneled them, started a wagon and so on. Zen, is most of the joking part. He's kindof doing this but not as much. He's townier in my books than Rake is. So basically:

FOS: Rake
 

Shun Goku Satsu Rake

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I see you there Masq. You gonna post?
Inb4 Zen/Rake scum team (this is 95% joking and 5% super weak reasoning)

I'll elaborate since people will be asking me about it anyways. Zen and Rake have been two of this game's most influential roles (if not THE most). I have noticed that they seem to be jumping between people and tunneling them causing discord and confusion among town. The deadline is tomorrow and I don't think we're close to having a solid play. This isn't BiM. We can't just shoot someone before deadline. People have to agree. Rake has tunneled Scary, got a wagon on him, then switched to someone else (me? I can't remember if there was anyone in between) tunneled them, started a wagon and so on. Zen, is most of the joking part. He's kindof doing this but not as much. He's townier in my books than Rake is. So basically:

FOS: Rake
if me and zen were scum we would have already won
 

Shun Goku Satsu Rake

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My natural disposition as town is confusion.
If you think I have any idea what i'm doing as town your way far off base lol
 

Xivii

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By the way everyone, given the small size of this game, Mason should certainly use his ability as the function of a cop. And because of that I think it's best that we all hypermason. Before the day end, give the name of the person you would be recruiting at night if you were the mason. The person you are recruiting should be a null read, a scum lean, or scum read. I myself prefer to cop people I have a hard time reading rather than strong scum reads. So my hypermason will be between Magic Bounce and Joey. Unlike hypocop, this gives us a pretty safe way of knowing who the Mason targeted if he dies during the night. And if the Mason does die during the night, there will be an 7/8 chance that the person he hypermasoned was scum.

The problem with hypocopping is that mafia can often rule out the people who aren't cop because their claims will obviously be wrong (If a person claimed that they copped player x during the previous night and got a guilty, yet that person was actually town; then the mafia would know that person wasn't the real cop).

With hypermason this isn't the case because we are doing it before hand (pre-night phase instead of post-night phase). There is no information being given that would lead mafia to the true and genuine mason. So I'd like everyone to give their hypermason before the day end in bold (ie "HyperMason: Player Name").

[collapse=Elaboration on the 7/8 figure]
-We begin with 11 players.
-1 will be lynched today. Assume that player is town. If that player is mafia, then the chance is increased to 8/9.
-10 players in the Night phase. 2 of them being Mafia. That means from the mafia's perspective, there are 8 players that could be Mason.
-That means that Mafia has a 1/8* chance of hitting the Mason.
-That means if the Mason dies during the night, it was a 1/8 chance that he was killed by the mafia.
-The other 7/8 possibility is that he attempted to recruit a scum player. Thus a 7/8 chance that the player he HyperMasoned is scum.

Of course, the Vig could also kill the mason, but if that's the case there will be two kills.

*This is purely numerical and doesn't take into consideration the human element. For instance mafia looking for certain crumbs to find the mason.[/collapse]

HyperMason: Magic Bounce

Everyone please make sure to do this before the day ends.
 

Xivii

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@Zen: How would you say the cohesion between a given duo is affected when both are scum?
If there is something wrong between duo players I think the order in amount of situations that caused it goes like this: T-S > T-T > S-S. I think that the situation just needs to be read though. As I said, I just don't think that the interaction between Kanty and Sokr is S-S. The way that Kanty has questioned Sokr and gone about defending him don't really feel like the actions a scumbuddy or traitorbuddy would take.
 

Xivii

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I see you there Masq. You gonna post?
Inb4 Zen/Rake scum team (this is 95% joking and 5% super weak reasoning)

I'll elaborate since people will be asking me about it anyways. Zen and Rake have been two of this game's most influential roles (if not THE most). I have noticed that they seem to be jumping between people and tunneling them causing discord and confusion among town. The deadline is tomorrow and I don't think we're close to having a solid play. This isn't BiM. We can't just shoot someone before deadline. People have to agree. Rake has tunneled Scary, got a wagon on him, then switched to someone else (me? I can't remember if there was anyone in between) tunneled them, started a wagon and so on. Zen, is most of the joking part. He's kindof doing this but not as much. He's townier in my books than Rake is. So basically:

FOS: Rake
Mother of Towniness.
 

frozenmarsh751

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**** ALL of y'all. I was hoping to just be lazy today for some good old fashioned hardbody wagoning but mother****ers wanna talk all day.

Vig, shoot the utter **** out of my following vote and if I'm successful in killing him rid us of Magic Bounce for good measure. Other half, get at me when you can.

Vote: -Masquerain-
 
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