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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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SMAASH! Puppy

SMAASH! Puppy

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The Stoopid Unikorn said:
After all, Sakurai explicitly stated during the Pyra presentation that the Monster Hunter costumes were put around that time specifically because of MH Rise.
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Did he say they were picked at that time or they chose to release them at that time?

The Stoopid Unikorn said:
I still doubt they'd completely shadowdrop a character like that.
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Does it count as a shadow drop if they announce the date first?

Also I remember someone saying that Piranha Plant was shadow dropped.

Also also, wasn't Joker shadow dropped?
 
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Shroob

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N3ON said:
No pervasive character leaks

No remaining known Mii costumes

No promo characters seem overly likely and the timing has lapsed for current releases

No third-party companies seem like frontrunners for inclusion.

Most of the candidates we've spent the last forty-eight three years discussing seem out of the running.

We're not just in the dark. It's basically pitch black.
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Darker than the darkest black, times infinity.
 
C

chocolatejr9

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N3ON said:
No pervasive character leaks

No remaining known Mii costumes

No promo characters seem overly likely and the timing has lapsed for current releases

No third-party companies seem like frontrunners for inclusion.

Most of the candidates we've spent the last forty-eight three years discussing seem out of the running.

We're not just in the dark. It's basically pitch black.
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Why do I get the feeling most of the presentation is Sakurai justifying their inclusion (even though he shouldn't HAVE to)?
 
The Stoopid Unikorn

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SMAASH! Puppy said:
Did he say they were picked at that time or they chose to release them at that time?


Does it count as a shadow drop if they announce the date first?

Also I remember someone saying that Piranha Plant was shadow dropped.

Also also, wasn't Joker shadow dropped?
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Technically speaking, the only fighters who weren't released within 24 hours of their presentation are Byleth, Min Min and Steve.

However, two of these were completely unknown before the presentation and we only had two days for Steve before his presentation. So it seems the devs are unwilling to really drop a character immediately after they're revealed, likely because they aren't done doing this very time-consuming thing called balancing the character.

A "complete" shadowdrop would be something like Roy and Ryu in Smash 4, where the character is released within hours, if not minutes of being announced. I don't expect anything like that for Fighter 11.
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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The Stoopid Unikorn said:
Technically speaking, the only fighters who weren't released within 24 hours of their presentation are Byleth, Min Min and Steve.
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Wait wut? I remember having to wait 2 weeks for Kazuya...

The Stoopid Unikorn said:
A "complete" shadowdrop would be something like Roy and Ryu in Smash 4, where the character is released within hours, if not minutes of being announced
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Well that I actually don't see them doing. I think we'll at least be waiting the entire day to be able to play as them. I'm pretty sure that's how the other similar cases for this game worked as well.
 
The Stoopid Unikorn

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Rie Sonomura said:
Oh my God what happened?! Are you ok??
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That was Kazuya's release days ago. I've been okay since mid-July lmao

But long story short, half a ton's worth of stock fell on me because pallets are very poorly wrapped when delivered to work. Nothing changed since because of course nothing did; suppliers don't give a **** about retail employees.
 
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WahHahaha

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BlondeLombax said:
So... have we discussed potential Mii costumes yet? It seems like now's a better time than ever for that sort of thing.

I'm placing some chips on an Among Us costume for all three Miis, the game's überpopularity has made this idea nip me in the back of my corpus colossum for a while now.
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I already did a couple of pages ago, yes. Here's my predictions again.

-Papyrus (Undertale is a very popular indie game that gets a lot of acknowledgement from Nintendo)

-Doomguy (We had a bunch of bethesda costumes and Doom has been ported to the switch)

-Cinderace (I think this will just be like the Inkling costume in Smash 4 where a character who couldn't be playable gets acknowledged)

-Crash Bandicoot (Seems like a good way to acknoweledge a gaming icon who's had a recent uprising and a pretty sizable clamoring for in Smash)

-Red Shell Hat (I think Waluigi is Challenger Pack 11 and this is one of the few Mii Costumes that hasn't returned)



Now that I think of it. Among Us is a wildcard that may or may not happen. It really depends on whether Nintendo rushed to making a mii costume when Among Us got popular. I highly doubt they did though.

Even though I think Waluigi is CP11, I don't think they really need to add much more Mario costumes to the game because we already have so much mario content, and they're kind of scraping the bottom of the barrel on potential costumes to include.
 
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Shroob

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Let's run some numbers to clear this up.




:ultjoker:: Presentation: April 16th, Release: April 17th


:ulthero:: Presentation: July 30th, Release: Same day


:ultbanjokazooie:: Presentation: September 4th, Release: Same day


:ult_terry:: Presentation: November 6th, Release: Same day


:ultbyleth:: Presentation: January 16th, Release: January 28th


:ultminmin: Presentation: June 22nd, Release: June 29th


:ultsteve:: Presentation: October 3rd, Release: October 13th


:ultsephiroth:: Presentation: December 17th, Release: Same Day(Challenger), December 22nd(Otherwise)


:ultpyra::ultmythra:: Presentation: March 4th, Release: Same day


:ultkazuya:: Presentation: June 28th, Release: June 29th



So, use this data as you will to make your own opinions.
 
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Ridrool64

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Oh, it's page 2424!

Guess that means it's time for me to try and shill Arle one last time even though the window of opportunity has generally passed!... to be honest I just don't have the energy to. But I do think it isn't over for her until the fat lady sings (the theme song of the actual newcomer).

But at this point we've all got our champion horses, and Arle's my more wanted than likely favorite pick. If any character has a better shot that I'd like, I think it's actually Frisk.
 
The Stoopid Unikorn

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Shroob said:
Let's run some numbers to clear this up.




:ultjoker:: Presentation: April 16th, Release: April 17th


:ulthero:: Presentation: July 30th, Release: Same day


:ultbanjokazooie:: Presentation: September 4th, Release: Same day


:ult_terry:: Presentation: November 6th, Release: Same day


:ultbyleth:: Presentation: January 16th, Release: January 28th


:ultminmin: Presentation: June 22nd, Release: June 29th


:ultsteve:: Presentation: October 3rd, Release: October 13th


:ultsephiroth:: Presentation: December 17th, Release: Same Day(Challenger), December 22nd(Otherwise)


:ultpyra::ultmythra:: Presentation: March 4th, Release: Same day


:ultkazuya:: Presentation: June 28th, Release: June 29th



So, use this data as you will to make your own opinions.
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You left out the day these characters were announced, which was my entire point.
 
WahHahaha

WahHahaha

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Shroob said:
Let's run some numbers to clear this up.




:ultjoker:: Presentation: April 16th, Release: April 17th


:ulthero:: Presentation: July 30th, Release: Same day


:ultbanjokazooie:: Presentation: September 4th, Release: Same day


:ult_terry:: Presentation: November 6th, Release: Same day


:ultbyleth:: Presentation: January 16th, Release: January 28th


:ultminmin: Presentation: June 22nd, Release: June 29th


:ultsteve:: Presentation: October 3rd, Release: October 13th


:ultsephiroth:: Presentation: December 17th, Release: Same Day(Challenger), December 22nd(Otherwise)


:ultpyra::ultmythra:: Presentation: March 4th, Release: Same day


:ultkazuya:: Presentation: June 28th, Release: June 29th



So, use this data as you will to make your own opinions.
Click to expand...

Patterns are meaningless. 90% of the time they are coincidences. It will just be dropped whenever it is dropped.
 
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The Stoopid Unikorn

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SMAASH! Puppy said:
Considering that Sephiroth's challenge was super freaking easy I don't even know why they said "you'd get it early if you win." You gonna win. lol
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Probably just the novelty of it.

Besides, you were still locked out of anything that wasn't the character or the stage, so you still had to wait for Spirits or Cloud's shiny new Final Smash
 
Shroob

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Regardless


Could one not make the argument that the wait we're experiencing right now is basically not akin to say, Byleth or Pythra's wait time between reveal and presentation?


We don't know the character, but it's effectively the same wait time of 12-14 days.
 
Will

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N3ON said:
No pervasive character leaks

No remaining known Mii costumes

No promo characters seem overly likely and the timing has lapsed for current releases

No third-party companies seem like frontrunners for inclusion.

Most of the candidates we've spent the last forty-eight three years discussing seem out of the running.

We're not just in the dark. It's basically pitch black.
Click to expand...
After Terry, Nintendo finally fired CJ for leaking now like, five characters and put the entire game under top secret supervision. :4pacman:
 
The Stoopid Unikorn

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Shroob said:
Regardless


Could one not make the argument that the wait we're experiencing right now is basically not akin to say, Byleth or Pythra's wait time between reveal and presentation?


We don't know the character, but it's effectively the same wait time of 12-14 days.
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Except we knew who those characters were before the presentation...


....Whatever. Just screenshot my words and tag me on the 5th when I end up being right. :4pacman:
 
WahHahaha

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Shroob said:
Unnecessary. There's no reason for public shaming on either end, we're simply trying to guesstimate a release date.
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Since Challenger Pack 11's presentation is actually the reveal, I think we might have to wait a little bit longer. It's more likely to either be the next week or the next day.

Same day isn't an impossibility either, it just seems unlikely.
 
SMAASH! Puppy

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The Stoopid Unikorn said:
You left out the day these characters were announced, which was my entire point.
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Here:
Shroob said:
Let's run some numbers to clear this up.


:ultpiranha:: Reveal: November 1st, Presentation: N/A, Release: January 29th

:ultjoker:: Reveal: December 6th, Presentation: April 16th, Release: April 17th


:ulthero:: Reveal: June 11th, Presentation: July 30th, Release: Same day


:ultbanjokazooie:: Reveal: June 11th, Presentation: September 4th, Release: Same day


:ult_terry:: Reveal: September 4th, Presentation: November 6th, Release: Same day


:ultbyleth:: Reveal: January 16th, Presentation: January 16th, Release: January 28th


:ultminmin: Reveal: March 16 (ARMS), Reveal: June 22nd (Min Min), Presentation: June 22nd, Release: June 29th


:ultsteve:: Reveal: October 1st, Presentation: October 3rd, Release: October 13th


:ultsephiroth:: Reveal: December 10th, Presentation: December 17th, Release: Same Day(Challenger), December 22nd(Otherwise)


:ultpyra::ultmythra:: Reveal: February 17th, Presentation: March 4th, Release: Same day


:ultkazuya:: Reveal: June 15th, Presentation: June 28th, Release: June 29th



So, use this data as you will to make your own opinions.
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EDIT:
Here's what I think of the data:
  • There are 0 characters that have had their reveal, presentation, and release on the same day, however a lack of precedent doesn't indicate an impossibility, so therefore it's just no data; inconclusive.
  • There are only two(ish) characters that have had a reveal and presentation on the same day, which isn't enough to form a pattern, so there's just insufficient data; inconclusive.
  • There are five(ish) characters that have released the same day as their presentation, which makes it either 50/50, or less than that depending on if you count Sephiroth and/or Piranha Plant. Regardless of how you slice it though, it is enough to be a factor.
Overall, I'd say there's insufficient data to make an actual verdict, and that all it really tells us here is that a while this specific scenario would be a first, a presentation and release on the same day isn't unheard of. The only other piece of evidence on the table is the server maintenance, which could be for our fighter, or something we don't care about. With that, my final verdict is that it's possible, but I wouldn't say it's probable nor improbable.

In other words: Frick if I know.
 
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Sucumbio

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I gotta admit my bias is strong. the thought of having to wait even longer for the last character past the 5th is just exasperating. So I'm ignoring the logical impulses by seeing the data.

But all that aside this IS the final fighter so being this distinction is unique it's quite plausible the reveal-release-presents timing could be all same day. (I hope).
 
Shroob

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epicmartin7 said:
@smashbrosjp has a new twitter banner.



They are hyping this up lol.
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End of an era upon us soon


God, the surrealism of that after having followed this for the last 3 years is finally starting to set in.



I'm both happy it's ending, but also sad.


I don't think I could take another year of speculation, but in a most likely Stockholme way, I'm gonna miss it.
 
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