Who wants to see Rate Their Chances?

[Deleted member]

Guess you could say I'm back... again. Turns out leaving for awhile only lasted a couple weeks. Oh well.

Rate Their Chances was done by multiple hosts on the Super Smash Bros. Brawl board and the SSB4 board on GameFAQs. I also briefly ran a variation on the User Blogs from July to September, 2011. And as promised (although late), I plan to reviving it on here.

So would people be interested in see a variation of this being hosted by me? If I can get enough people interested, I'll start working on it.

I'll say this; the first day will be nominating characters you want to see with the second day also nominating characters, but predicting the one that got the most vote for the first day. You get five nomination. I will explain more later if this idea goes through.

Also, would it be best to keep it to one thread or make a thread every day for each individual character? I'd prefer the latter, but I'll do what is most suitable for this forum.

Will check back after watching Bleach, Deadman Wonderland, and Casshern Sins on Tooonami tonight.

 

[SSBCandidates]

I don't know. I stopped playing in them at Gamefaqs as they were too frustrating.

 

[Claire Diviner]

I'd say stick with just this thread and update the OP as needed. The reason being is that there's a high chance each individual character nominated will already have had a thread dedicated to them.

 

[---]

Wouldn't mind having a game to spice things up and get the community united outside us who are from the old threads and backrooms.

My only pet peeve is bias and most people's general lack of actual knowledge about the development of the series/how Sakurai works. It also gets carried away when we stray from the general character pool. If this does end up happening though, lets try and do letter grades rather than a number system to keep things more in general.

 

[SmashShadow]

Will check back after watching Bleach, Deadman Wonderland, and Casshern Sins on Tooonami tonight.

Almost forgot!

 

[Deleted member]

Wouldn't mind having a game to spice things up and get the community united outside us who are from the old threads and backrooms.

My only pet peeve is bias and most people's general lack of actual knowledge about the development of the series/how Sakurai works. It also gets carried away when we stray from the general character pool. If this does end up happening though, lets try and do letter grades rather than a number system to keep things more in general.

Yeah, bias will probably be a much more severe problem with this thread, but I don't know if a letter grade system will work since I am not sure how we would calculate that. I could perhaps use something like a 0-10 scale with no decimals, 0 being impossible and 10 being shoe-in, which at least I have a definite idea of how to use it.

I will also try to set some ground rules, such as not allowing counter votes or votes meant solely to increase or decrease ratings of a character they like/dislike. And of course other rules as well. I think we should hammer the rules and the function of this Rate Their Chance out first before we start.

First off, what do people think of including stages and items to the mix, along with Pokeball and Assist Trophy? Might as well appeal to more than characters anyway.

@Sol Diviner: Good point, but I don't think having a few threads is a bad ideas. One for the first two days of nomination, one for the first time voting, and one for re-voting, with another thread for general Rate Their Chances stuff (where you can see the ratings for each characters and discuss it in general).

 

[Claire Diviner]

Stage ideas can also work too. Pokéball Pokémon, Assist Trophies and items can work as well, though it may be overdoing it. All things considered, it will give even more time to kill as we wait for news on Smash 4, so in the end, anything that can keep us busy is good in my book - overdoing it or not.

Of course, in terms of stages, items, Pokéball Pokémon, etc., I don't know if the character discussion board will be suitable as it's more for character discussions. So threads voting for the aforementioned things would probably be better off in the General Smash 4 discussion.

 

[Jhonnykiller45]

Yeah, this looks like a pretty good idea if you ask me.
We'll just have to be careful for bias and i.e.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

While making a game is okay, it's probably better if you just did it all in a single thread. Making extra threads would be redundant, especially since duplicate threads should be avoided here.

 

[Deleted member]

Actually, ---'s idea of a letter grade system can work out very well. Something like this:

S: These characters are inclusions that would be very surprising if they didn't happen. No guarantees, but these characters stands out from the rest in likelihood. (5)

A: A few issues may stand on their way, but the odds are definitely in their favor for inclusion. (4)

B: Less likely to happen, but they are still rather reasonable choices with strong reasons to be in. (3)

C: Odds aren't very good, but they still have an outside shot. (2)

D: Probably not happening for very good reasons. Possible, but chances are slim. (1)

F: These characters have no reason to be considered contenders. Again, no guarantees, but there's no point in expecting them. (0)

When a day is over, I will tally them all up and place them in a ranking system like this:

S (4.5-5)
A (4.0-4.4)
A- (3.5-3.9)
B (3.0-3.4)
B- (2.5-2.9)
C (2.0-2.4)
C-(1.5-1.9)
D (1-1.4)
D- (0.5-0.9)
F (0-0.4)

Revotes will of course be allowed. Like in my previous version, you can also vote if you want a character as a bonus, which use the same scale. These follow a similar scale, however, like chances, these are not meant to help increase or decrease one's chances for inclusion in Smash 4, but are just for fun.

Anyway, been thinking of these guidelines I think we can all agree upon these (for characters):

1. Anyone that is not a video game character or a video game character that has not appeared on a video game console will not be eligible for Rate Their Chances. So no Mickey Mouse, no Goku, no Master Chief, and especially not your mom.

2. This is a game, please treat it as such. Respect everyone's opinion, including ones who you dissent from. All rules for this forum still applies. And for the love of god, dont bring your grudges here.

3. Debates about the character is fine. As a matter of fact, it is encouraged. However, flame wars are not tolerated and will be punished on site. Anyone that participates in them will be reported for flaming and lose the ability to nominate characters or vote for two days.

4. Bias is inevitable when it comes to opinions, but keep them in check. Giving a character a S in likelihood because you think it would be awesome is not going to be counted. Likewise, giving a character an F in likelihood because you absolutely loathe it is going to get your vote skipped. Troll voting is also unacceptable.

5. Any of the characters below are not eligible due to being agreed upon universally that they will be in:

- Mario
- Luigi
- Peach
- Bowser
- Donkey Kong
- Diddy Kong
- Yoshi
- Wario
- Link
- Zelda
- Samus
- Pit
- Kirby
- King Dedede
- Pikachu
- Captain Falcon

Anyone else is fair game in regards to likelihood. Veterans from Melee and Brawl will be put into their own category and all of the veterans not eligible will be put in the S category.

6. Revotes are allowed, but a character needs about 100 votes before they get another shot at revotes. Also, after a character gets voted, they will not be voted again for in a week. Revotes will occur at the same time a new character is being rated and the new percentage will replace the old one (thought all voting sessions for each characters will be shown and linked to).

7. Characters that are non-existence will not be rated. No Gen 6 Pokemon, no FE15 Lord, etc. Characters must exist in order to be rated.

On to other things, I plan on adding flavor text to this. I will have one at the OP, one to introduce a character to Rate Their Chances, and another one to show off their ratings overall. Each character up will also have a theme, though if you find a theme appropriate and want me to consider it, you can send it. As long as the character is in there in some capacity, TV shows or movies of said series are acceptable (not fan-made ones).

While making a game is okay, it's probably better if you just did it all in a single thread. Making extra threads would be redundant, especially since duplicate threads should be avoided here.

I personally like the idea of having a few threads for this game for the purpose of organizing information, but I could constraint it to two threads if possible. One thread in the character sections for characters and another for Pokeball, stages, and items in the General SSB4 thread. As for this thread, I don't plan to transform it into an official Rate Their Chances thread, rather, I'll make a new thread for it. This is more of brainstorming.

 

[Claire Diviner]

So how exactly will this start? Just curious, as I'm interested in this game.

 

[Deleted member]

So how exactly will this start? Just curious, as I'm interested in this game.

The first day will start by nominating any characters that are eligible for SSB4, in which you get five nomination (that you can use on a single character, spread it out to other characters, or in between). Second day will be the same as the first day, but the character that gets the most nomination will be up for predictions. You will be able to predict what the character gets tomorrow and the one who is the closest to the final amount the character gets wins five more nominations.

The third day will be the first day of rating, on the character that you predicted tomorrow. The character who got the most nominations on the second day will be up for prediction Day Three. As for the fourth day, the character who was rated first has their final result revealed with the character receiving predictions Day Three going up and the character with the most nomination Day Three will be up for prediction. Rinse and repeat from there, with of course re-voting (which is done when a character reaches 100 votes, but cannot be revoted for at least a week).

Speaking of re-votes, they are part of your five nominations. If Saki Amamiya were to be up for the first day and got his result the second day, you are able to vote for Saki, but you cannot vote Saki five times and vote others characters you want. You would have to do something like King K. Rool x1, Mega Man x1, Genesect x1, Roy x1, and Saki x1 (except that you can fill in those characters with ones you want to vote for).

Given that people seem to be for this idea, I'll try to have the first day up tomorrow for character nominations since I am off work that day.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

I personally like the idea of having a few threads for this game for the purpose of organizing information, but I could constraint it to two threads if possible. One thread in the character sections for characters and another for Pokeball, stages, and items in the General SSB4 thread. As for this thread, I don't plan to transform it into an official Rate Their Chances thread, rather, I'll make a new thread for it. This is more of brainstorming.

Very well. As long as you limit the threads that you make, it should be okay to set up your game.

 

[Holder of the Heel]

I would participate and dedicate much thought into grading each character as best as possible.

 

[Opossum]

I'd love to see a Rate-Their-Chances. It'd be a nice way to gather speculation, pass the time, maybe find some good debaters, and see who this board thinks is most likely.

 

[FlareHabanero]

My main concern is bias and illogical reasoning plaguing this game to the point of no return. If such a game becomes real, the rules should reflect that. Like writing why the character is viable.

 

[Opossum]

I think it will be easy to tell if someone is being biased/troll-like/illogical, and I believe SSBF said he'll try to prevent it. I think common sense will prevail, however.

 

[BKupa666]

I hope common sense will prevail, and I would love to see this series transferred to these forums.

I do wonder, though, how illogical does one's rating have to be before it will be discounted? Obviously reasoning like, "Mickey is a shoe-in because he's in a new game," will be ruled out, but will equally poor, but convincing-on-the-surface arguments along the lines of "X character has no potential (in my opinion)" or "Y character missed his series' most recent game and is therefore dead (because I want him to be)" be permitted?

Part of the fun of the series is the wealth of opinions that come together to create each character's final ranking, but I would hope as much faulty reasoning is able to be ruled out as possible without resulting in people dismissing it as rigged because their opinions are exposed as such one person has too large a role in deciding which votes to count.

 

[FlareHabanero]

I think it would be considered bias if the writer says "character sucks/rocks and shouldn't/should be added" without any back up to the claim. If there is an logical explanation to their claim, then it would be perfectly legitimate. At the end of the day, logic beats dreaming.

Also avoiding down right praise or grudges might help too.

 

[kisamefishfries]

I like these kinds of things. More or less because I just enjoy hearing what other people think. I can't wait to participate.

 

[SSGuy]

When will we be nominating characters?

 

[Claire Diviner]

When will we be nominating characters?

I believe he mentioned the process beginning at some point tomorrow.

 

[Phaazoid]

I like this idea. three votes for ridley! (one for shy guy :D)

 

[---]

My suggestion would be starting out with an opening argument for said character, that includes what they have for them and have against, which can then be argued throughout the day. Then the next day you would actually vote on them while debating the character to be voted on the day after and so on and so on. Just an idea here to get some disscussion going.

 

[Barbasol]

My suggestion would be starting out with an opening argument for said character, that includes what they have for them and have against, which can then be argued throughout the day. Then the next day you would actually vote on them while debating the character to be voted on the day after and so on and so on. Just an idea here to get some disscussion going.

Agreed, it'd be nice to make the case for or against a character the day before they come up.

Looking forward to the debates.

 

[Holder of the Heel]

Each voter will give their testimony for each defendant for appraisal. Any prosecuting attorneys may then counter-examine. If however we find the attorney to be badgering a defendant, they will receive a penalty from the Judge and their objections will be overruled. The Judge establishes basic laws to follow, but each case must be evaluated individually, trial by tribulation.

And yes, I will be talking like this until my present occupation with the Phoenix Wright series is complete.

 

[smashmanx7]

Speak like a regular person

 

[Holder of the Heel]

Overruled, irrelevant to the topic and trivial. Penalty! Punishment is being spit on by burning hot coffee!

Another outburst like that and we will hold you in contempt of topic and you will be escorted out of the thread by the moderators!

 

[Deleted member]

@Sol Diviner: Yep, it's starting sometimes tomorrow (or today according to CST time, just need to get sleep and energy to do it).

@samusrules93: Nominations does not start until I get the thread up.

My suggestion would be starting out with an opening argument for said character, that includes what they have for them and have against, which can then be argued throughout the day. Then the next day you would actually vote on them while debating the character to be voted on the day after and so on and so on. Just an idea here to get some disscussion going.

Good idea. The major benefit that comes out of this idea is that it helps encourage votes with more objectivity to the situation the character is in and of course helps reduce bias in voting. I think it's worth giving this a shot and see if it works because this idea can help keep the thread active for a longer time, although I do worry about it's usefulness when we get to characters that any rational person will agree won't get in and re-voting the more viable characters worth mentioning.

Also with this, you could use the grading system I laid out earlier in this thread for how much you want a character since that is a side to Rate Their Chances for either the discussion phase or the voting phase and you would be able to change your score for both chances and want at any time (thought chances can only be voted and changed upon during voting phase).

I need zzzz (2 AM CST over here). Will talk later and we can use this thread to brainstorm until discussion phase starts.

Edit: Turns out I have some energy left. Let me say something before I sleep;

During the voting phase of a character, I want people to be able to get their final thoughts on a characters odds since not everyone that wants to participate in a character debate will get to do so due to real life matters. However, during the voting phase, the debate ceases as it is primarily for voting.

Regarding where to draw the line, that is something I will have to figure out over this game. Of course since logic is going to be required in voting that there needs to be some sense of objectivism in every vote. Logics like "X is a shoo-in because I want it!" and nothing more will not be counted among others like it since they are pure bias, but votes and arguments that attempts to be objective should be counted, even if the argument is flimsy. Heck, anything Sakurai has stated as a reason to include certain characters seems unfair to exclude, since after all, it did contribute to a characters inclusion. However, one argument that bothers me about keeping it among the legitimate arguments is the female argument.

Increasing the female count was one of the reasons why Zero Suit Samus got in, which resulted in a massive amount of demand for more females and this being considered a legitimate argument by many people. However, most of us here agree that the female argument reeks of bias (although it could be argued that being female allows for a different style of play, which can contribute to uniqueness, one of the four criterias Sakurai mentioned when deciding characters). As a matter of fact, it is borderline pure bias, especially if a person has little other material to argue for inclusion for said female character.

So I'll ask this; should this argument stay or A vote be counted as invalid due to this reason if no other valid arguments are present?

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

. However, one argument that bothers me about keeping it among the legitimate arguments is the female argument.

Increasing the female count was one of the reasons why Zero Suit Samus got in, which resulted in a massive amount of demand for more females and this being considered a legitimate argument by many people. However, most of us here agree that the female argument reeks of bias (although it could be argued that being female allows for a different style of play, which can contribute to uniqueness, one of the four criterias Sakurai mentioned when deciding characters). As a matter of fact, it is borderline pure bias, especially if a person has little other material to argue for inclusion for said female character.

So I'll ask this; should this argument stay or A vote be counted as invalid due to this reason if no other valid arguments are present?

I suggest to go with the latter but on the other hand, I'm not into this argument much at all myself. When I saw that people support some characters for sake of them being "female", it really came out to me as "fake support", because they don't support the character for where she's from or what she can bring to Smash and is she relevant enough to be in without making people go too confused about her inclusion. They just support them because they are female and think it's already enough to make them be likely. (Makes me think why there was indeed only ONE new female character added and she was actually a same character from the last Smash Bros-games)

I might lean to the latter suggestion or better, take that argument out for good, because it seems to make females feel all "same" and not unique when compared to each other.

 

[Deleted member]

That's a good point there and unless someone else comes to object banning the usage of female arguments for likelihood (and with good reasons), I will cross that argument out in the list of reasons people can use. Although I will say this; Brawl did plan for Diddy and Dixie Kong to be together in Smash, so it wasn't like Sakurai was against having more females as long as they can prove their worth (and by that standard, I could only think of two other worthy females; Dixie Kong and Krystal).

Krystal could havel gotten in over Wolf in Brawl (or if we were lucky, both) had Sakurai even known her, so she wasn't a victim of being turned down so much as not having the opportunity to be considered. Which is why I think Smash 4 will be her shot at the roster and not Brawl. But I'll withheld further arguments for Krystal until that day comes.

As for arguments that can be used, I'd rather just make it easier and just list ones not to use. I would add relevance and patterns to the list since there is no evidence that Sakurai uses either when deciding characters, but I would get a large backlash for not including either since there would be arguments until the blue comes in the face.

Anyway, going to start working on that thread. I'll keep this one up for a couple of days, then when discussion phase starts for the first character, I will ask someone to close this since it will have served it's purpose.

 

[DakotaBonez]

So is this a poll or...?

 

[Deleted member]

Given that this is not based on who is the most likely, but a game where we discuss and rate a character's chances, no this is not a poll.

This game will make a lot more sense once I get my thread up.

 

[Deleted member]

I know I shouldn't be double posting, but Rate Their Chances: Day One has began!

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Seeing as the game has officially started, this thread will now be closed. Anyway, here's the thread link to the "Rate Their Chances" game...

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=325340