Newcomer/Veteran Commentary:
With the unveil of Smash 4, we have learned a great deal of new things in regards to speculation for possible newcomers.
First off, it turns out we will continue to call Smash Bros. 4, Smash Bros. 4 (the official title for each version of the game is simply Super Smash Bros. for 3DS and Super Smash Bros. for Wii U). So no edits are needed there.
With each of the three newcomers that were confirmed (along with the one particular veteran confirmation, Olimar), we learned a great deal more about the kind of thinking and selection process that Sakurai will be going with in regards to the latest installment of Smash Bros.
First off, we know several things in regards to Smash Bros. 4’s roster
- That the roster has already been decided.
- That some characters may be cut due to time constraints or 3DS hardware constraints.
- That not every character who has appeared in the Smash Bros. series so far will return for Smash 4.
As such any game announcements that happened at E3 or in the future, will have little to no effect on the roster.
Now some commentary on each of the newcomers:
Mega Man:
The confirmation of Mega Man is perhaps the only one of the newcomers that was not a surprise to Smash Bros. speculators. Mega Man has been a very highly requested character for Smash Bros. ever since Sakurai first confirmed that third-party characters were eligible for Smash Bros. back in May 2006.
Mega Man was among the Top 10 most wanted characters during the pre-Brawl period (in the West) in the West. Mega Man’s popularity and requests for Smash Bros. increased further after Brawl’s release to the point where he ended up becoming the most wanted character for Smash 4 in the West (and the most wanted true newcomer in Japan as well).
The strong interest of Mega Man as a potential fighter in Smash Bros. even caught the interest of several people at Capcom such as Ono (producer of Capcom’s fighting game revivals), and the higher-ups at Capcom America forwarded the strong demand for Mega Man to Capcom Japan to request Mega Man in Smash Bros. Apparently, Capcom Japan did follow through on this.
Mega Man ended up being by far the most well-received newcomer of the trio for the unveil, and perhaps the producer of the most hype in regards to Smash 4 (there was probably no other character out there that could create as much hype as Mega Man did).
We learned a great deal more about Sakurai’s selection in regards to newcomers this time from the various statements that Sakurai has stated in regards to Mega Man.
One thing we learned is that the bar for entry among third-party characters is extremely high and that Sakurai will only select “legendary” third-party characters for placement within Smash Bros. This rules out pretty much all B-list and C-list third-party characters (in regards to Namco this pretty much rules out everyone except Pac-Man).
Sakurai also said only to expect a few third-party characters in Brawl, which means at best we will probably see only one more third-party newcomer added to Smash 4 (probably Pac-Man), with Sonic and Snake possibly returning.
Another statement Sakurai said that also gives us some more possible insight into how Smash 4’s roster will be selected is that Sakurai referenced that Mega Man was the most wanted third-party character after Sonic. This shows that perhaps Sakurai is looking at character popularity from during the pre-Brawl era in selecting Smash 4’s roster.
Overall, here is what we learned from Mega Man’s confirmation:
- That there will only be a few third-party characters in Smash 4.
- That third-party characters that are considered need to be “legendary”.
- That Sakurai still references pre-Brawl character requests.
There is a slew of characters that are helped or hurt by this:
Helped by “third-party characters need to be legendary”:
- Pac-Man
Hurt by “third-party characters need to be legendary”:
- Geno
- Every other third-party character choice with a decent amount of requests.
- Characters from the Tales series.
Helped by Sakurai still looking at his pre-Brawl poll:
- K. Rool
- Ridley (questionable since the poll was Japan-only)
- Little Mac (questionable since the poll was Japan-only)
- Krystal (questionable since the poll was Japan-only)
- Isaac
- Geno (though the comment about legendary third-party characters hurts him more than pre-Brawl popularity helps him)
Hurt (possibly) by Sakurai possibly only using pre-Brawl popularity:
- Palutena
- Shulk
- Chrom
Overall, Mega Man’s confirmation was long overdue. He is probably the one third-party character more synonymous with Nintendo than anyone else. He helped bring a ton of hype and interest to Smash 4, and helped clarify what it truly takes for a third-party character to enter Smash Bros. (a very strong legacy among gaming as well as very high amount of requests).
Villager:
The Villager to most people was a “shock” newcomer. Although Animal Crossing has become one of Nintendo’s highest selling franchises, and the series itself received more content than any other series without a playable character in Brawl, a character from this franchise was still seen as an unlikely addition for Smash 4.
The primary reason for this? Sakurai’s own statements regarding Animal Crossing after Brawl’s release. Sakurai had said that for Brawl he originally had a playable Animal Crossing character planned (the Villager), but he ultimately decided to scrap it because he felt the Animal Crossing franchise was too pacifist to warrant a playable character. The image of serenity, pacifism, and cooperation of Animal Crossing made it so that Sakurai felt uncomfortable with giving this popular franchise a playable character.
In the West, Tom Nook was a popular character choice during pre-Brawl, while in Japan their playable Animal Crossing character of choice was “Animal Crossing Boy”. Needless to say, the demand became much less common after Brawl’s release and Sakurai’s own statements.
Had it not been for Sakurai saying what he had said about Animal Crossing, most people would have regarded an Animal Crossing character as among the most likely newcomer additions for Smash 4, and in general a good candidate to be among the first newcomers to be shown.
However, the selection of the Villager does influence the speculation scene quite a bit. For one, it shows again Sakurai’s fondness of revisiting old ideas that he was unable to implement in the previous Smash Bros. game (benefits scrapped characters like Mewtwo, Roy, Dr. Mario, Dixie Kong, and Toon Zelda). It also shows that Sakurai has done a 180 on many of his character convictions (which benefits characters like Mii, Ridley, and Toad). For example, Sakurai said after Brawl’s release that he did not select the Mii because he thought it was a character that people who played Smash Bros. would not like to see (or rather they are not appropriate for the kind of game Smash Bros. is). With Miis popping up in everything since 2006 (the final cut-off for adding newcomers to the roster), Sakurai could have very well have changed his mind and attitude regarding them, of which the Mii series is basically in the same boat as Animal Crossing (a relatively pacifistic series that has seen much bigger success than even most of Nintendo’s established franchises).
The Villager also put to rest another debate amongst Smash Bros. speculators. Can characters that are customizable, in name, gender, and appearance become playable? This was one of the biggest arguments that Tom Nook fans used against supporters of the Villager. It has also been used against characters such as Mii and My Unit/Avatar from FE13. However, with Sakurai having chosen the Villager as one of his first newcomers, both Mii and the My Unit get a massive boost.
Overall, here is what we learned from the confirmation of the Villager:
- Sakurai is looking back to character ideas he had during Brawl’s development that he was unable to finish for one reason or another.
- Sakurai can change his mind and convictions in regards to certain characters or series.
Unlike, with Mega Man, there are only characters that are helped by this.
Helped by “Sakurai looking towards character ideas he was unable to implement during Brawl’s development”:
- Mewtwo
- Roy
- Dr. Mario
- Dixie Kong
- Toon Zelda
Helped by “Sakurai rethinking his convictions and attitudes regarding the place of certain characters and series within Smash Bros.”:
- Mii
- Ridley
- Toad
Helped by "customizable appearance characters able to get in:
- Mii
- My Unit
Overall, the Villager is definitely a Nintendo all-star. Animal Crossing was a franchise started during the very twilight of the Nintendo 64 (the very last game to be released by Nintendo for the Nintendo 64 in Japan, April 2001), and has become one of Nintendo’s most popular and beloved franchises, selling far more than most veteran franchises not named Mario or Pokemon (handheld Animal Crossing titles sell better than mainline Zelda and Kirby games now do). For such an iconic and popular Nintendo series (especially one created during the last decade), it was warranted to have a playable character.
Wii Fit Trainer:
By far the biggest surprise of the three unveil newcomers was the Wii Fit Trainer. Basically no one requested the addition of this character for Smash 4, and she totally blindsided everyone with her addition. Personally, I was thinking that Sakurai was going to throw in a “shock” character for the Smash 4 unveil, although my belief was that it was either going to be a “female” or “guest” (Zero Suit Samus and Snake were the “shock” characters for Brawl’s unveil).
As with Mega Man and Villager, the confirmation of the Wii Fit Trainer tells us several things about what Sakurai may have been looking for when selecting newcomers.
For one Sakurai was stressing how much the Wii Fit Trainer brought something that has never been seen before in a newcomer in Smash Bros. Sakurai in general has been stressing this with Smash 4 that with newcomers, that he wants to add characters that bring something completely new to Smash Bros. and has not been seen before. He also used this line of reasoning as to why he decided to show off the Villager as one of the first newcomers. This does not really hurt anyone aside from Chrom and a possible Pikmin newcomer. Sakurai wanting to expand the roster mostly into characters whom are quite different from characters who have not already been playable in Smash Bros. shows that there may not be as many newcomer slots, and Sakurai wants to be particularly inventive for each newcomer that happens to get in.
Another thing to derive from the confirmation of the Wii Fit Trainer is that Sakurai is looking to expand the number of Nintendo universes that have a playable character in Smash Bros., particularly franchises that have sold very well. The Wii Fit franchise has been among Nintendo’s Top 3 highest selling new franchises (franchises started during the last decade). Other series that particularly benefit from this are the Mii and Punch-Out franchises, though lots of smaller franchises such as Xenoblade, Starfy, Golden Sun, Famicom Wars, Band Bros., and Panel de Pon/Puzzle League also get a boost.
The one character to particularly get a boost out of the confirmation of the Wii Fit Trainer are Miis. Like Miis, the Wii Fit Trainer is from a relatively new franchise that mostly appealed to non-gamers, and has/had very weak demand among actual Smash Bros. fans. As it stands now, I would be very surprised if Miis did not end up becoming playable characters in Smash Bros. 4.
To recap, here are the things we got from the confirmation of Wii Fit Trainer:
- Sakurai wants newcomers that are quite different from characters that have already been in Smash Bros.
- Sakurai may have put a bigger focus on adding newcomers from Nintendo franchises that lacked a playable character in Brawl.
- Sakurai no longer has problem with putting in characters from series that mostly appeal to non-gamers or lack an obvious fighting notion.
Characters hurt by Sakurai wanting newcomers that are quite different from characters that have already been in Smash Bros.:
- Chrom
- Pikmin 3 newcomer
Characters that benefit from Sakurai perhaps putting a bigger emphasis on adding characters from series without a playable character in Brawl:
- Mii
- Little Mac
- Issaac (or Matthew)
- Saki (or Isa)
- Shulk
- Barbara the Bat
- Famicom Wars (Advance Wars) character
- Dillon
- Lip
- Chibi Robo
Characters that benefit from Sakurai possibly dropping his inhibitions about adding characters from series that mostly appeal to non-gamers or lack an obvious fighting focus:
- Mii
- Barbara the Bat
Overall, while Wii Fit Trainer was a very shocking choice, and a character whom practically no one asked for, she represents one of the highest selling new game franchises introduced by Nintendo during the previous decade. Moreover, she paves the way for lots of other Nintendo franchises lacking a playable character to finally have a spot on the roster.
Rosalina:
Rosalina was not only the first newcomer to be confirmed for Smash 4 since E3, but marks the distinction of being the first newcomer confirmed from a veteran franchise this time around. She was also not considered a plausible contender for a playable spot in Smash 4 until the confirmation of her playable role in Super Mario 3D World back during October 2013. Much of her fanbase grew from that announcement, and she ended up being confirmed for Smash 4 only a mere two months later.
Despite some appearance similarities, she did not end up being a derivative of Peach at all, and looks to be among the most inventive characters on the roster.
Her confirmation opens up several things, namely that the newcomer pool will consist of those from veteran franchises, and that Sakurai could be looking at characters that emerged during the Wii/DS era.
Despite her lesser importance and popularity, Rosalina received over other Mario characters with a far more impressive resume and popularity. She was nevertheless, very highly received, being the most well-received newcomer this time around aside from Mega Man.
To recap, here is what we learned with the confirmation of Rosalina:
- There is definitely going to be veteran series newcomers.
- That Sakurai could easily pick a character from a franchise that has less seniority and popularity than other choices, if he finds the choice to be potentially very inventive.
- Sakurai could be mainly eying characters that were prominent or emerged during the DS/Wii/3DS era.
Mii, Little Mac, Palutena, a FE13 character (Chrom, Chrom & Lucina, or My Unit), Bandanna Dee, Dixie Kong, and three Zelda characters (Toon Zelda, Impa, Ghirahim) are the characters who have their chances boosted by this announcement.
The characters hurt by Rosalina's confirmation were mostly the other potential candidates for a Mario newcomer.
Little Mac:
Little Mac ended up being the first newcomer confirmed for Smash 4 in 2014. Most people were expecting Little Mac to be a newcomer in Smash 4 due to a variety of factors. He was among the Top 5 most wanted newcomers for Smash 4 (even highly requested during pre-Brawl days), there was a boxing stage shown in Smash 4, and he was one of six characters listed as part of a leak that ended up being verified as true.
Although many people were expecting Little Mac, there is a lot that can be ascertained from his confirmation. One is that it shows yet again that Sakurai is looking to greatly expand the amount of new Nintendo universes to the Smash Bros. roster. Of the five newcomers unveiled so far, four of them hail from series that are new to Smash Bros. Characters such as Mii, Pac-Man, Takamaru, and possibly Shulk and Isaac/Matthew benefit from this.
Another thing to draw from the confirmation of Little Mac is that it brings further credence to the "leak" prior to E3 2013. For those unfamiliar with it, there was a poster at NeoGAF who posted a list of characters. The list consisted of Wii Fit Trainer, Villager, Mega Man, Little Mac, Mii, and Pac-Man. As we all know, Wii Fit Trainer, Villager, and Mega Man were all confirmed at E3. This poster later mentioned that he had received this information from an anonymous source. Many people were curious about why Little Mac, Mii, and Pac-Man were not shown. The fact that this person got right the Wii Fit Trainer and Villager of all things makes it more than simply a lucky guess, and considering that there have been multiple stages based off of games with Mii's as the primary character, its safe to say there is a good possibility that Mii and Pac-Man will also be playable.
The third major thing to draw from Little Mac's confirmation is that it may mean Sakurai is open to adding characters that have most of their requests come outside of Japan (or characters that otherwise have rather negligible requests by the Japanese fanbase). Little Mac and Punch-Out in general had very limited Japanese popularity, yet both are very popular outside Japan. The only other character that has the same level of exclusive overseas popularity that Little Mac had is Ridley. Isaac and Krystal are also lesser examples of Western-exclusive popular characters. As such, its possible the prospects of Ridley, Isaac (or Matthew), and Krystal have been boosted by Little Mac's confirmation.
Overall, here is what we learned from Little Mac's confirmation:
- That Sakurai is still looking to add more new universes to the roster.
- That the leak prior to E3 2013 looks more credible.
- That Sakurai may have no qualm with adding in Nintendo characters that are mostly popular with Westerners.
On the first point, the chances of Mii, Pac-Man, Takamaru, Shulk, and various other new universe characters are boosted. On the second point, the chances of Mii and Pac-Man are boosted. On the last point, the chances of Ridley, Isaac, and Krystal are boosted.
Overall, Little Mac was among the biggest name characters Sakurai had left to add in at this point, and its good to see that not only has Sakurai finally added him in, but he made him to be a pretty inventive character (all of the newcomers shown so far for Smash 4 look very unique and inventive).
Greninja:
Greninja's confirmation came as a surprise to most Smash Bros. fans. Many people were expecting Smash 4's Pokemon playable representation to be the same as it was in Brawl plus the addition of Mewtwo.
Greninja is easily there to promote Pokemon X/Y, and the sixth Pokemon generation in general. However, Greninja's confirmation alongside Charizard (and the fact that transformations have been done away with), puts a new spin on what will happen with Pokemon's playable representation in Smash 4. Pokemon is now already at four playable characters in Smash 4. No series has ever had more than five slots of playable characters in Smash Bros., and both Mario and Zelda don't look to exceed that.
With that there are many who believe that Jigglypuff and Mewtwo are bitterly fighting out over the last Pokemon slot. However, there can easily be six slots (or more) for Pokemon considering how popular the Pokemon series is, and how strong the credentials for both Jigglypuff and Mewtwo are. Squirtle and Ivysaur, both having weaker resumes than Jigglypuff and Mewtwo, are the two that are in most danger of being cut out of the Pokemon veterans.
Aside from Greninja's influence on the Pokemon series, he also shows that Sakurai is looking closely at prominent new software releases that happened a year or so around the time of Smash 4's development. Particular software that comes to mind are Kid Icarus: Uprising, Fire Emblem: Awakening, and possibly Xenoblade. It is as such the chances of Palutena, Shulk, and a FE13 character have been raised by Greninja's confirmation.
Characters hurt by the simultaneous confirmation of Greninja and Charizard:
- Jigglypuff (may have to bitterly compete with Mewtwo if Pokemon is only locked at five slots)
- Mewtwo (may have to bitterly compete with Jigglypuff if Pokemon is only locked at five slots)
- Squirtle (will only return if Pokemon is given more than six slots in Smash 4)
- Ivysaur (will only return if Pokemon is given more than six slots in Smash 4)
Characters helped by Greninja's confirmation (that Sakurai may be selecting newcomers from prominent new releases at around the time of Smash 4's early development):
- Palutena
- FE13 newcomer (My Unit or Chrom)
- Shulk
In the end, Greninja may have been the most shocking newcomer confirmed for Smash 4 outside of the Wii Fit Trainer (and possibly Villager). Almost nobody was expecting him as a standalone fighter (the few serious speculators that could have seen Greninja getting in would have had him in as part of a Kalos or X/Y trainer's three Pokemon). Greninja also marks the second newcomer confirmed from a veteran franchise. So far, 2/3 of the newcomers confirmed for Smash 4 hail from franchises that are entirely new to the fighting roster in Smash Bros. It will be interesting to see if this 2/3 ratio maintains itself to the final release.
Olimar:
Although only a veteran, the confirmation of Olimar does mean a few things in regards to character speculation, namely that Sakurai does not automatically go with whomever is the latest protagonist in a series with cycling “faces” and protagonists. This particularly affects possible speculation for the Fire Emblem and Pokemon series, of which are the most “notorious” for having cycling “flavors of the month”. As such characters such as Ike, Lucario, and Roy may not have to worry as much for not being “relevant” in their own series. Olimar being confirmed so early on does gravely hurt the chances of one particular character spot, namely a Pikmin newcomer (especially considering Olimar was used to promote Pikmin 3 on the Dojo).
Luigi:
Again, while he is a veteran, he does give us a little insight, though more in terms of regards to the timing of possible veteran confirmations. The first is that Luigi, a character who has historically been a character that has not been confirmed until the release of each Smash Bros. game has been confirmed very early on, which opens the door for other possible historical hidden characters to be confirmed before the game’s release (this most notably benefits the likes of Ness, Captain Falcon, and Marth). With the confirmations of Olimar and Luigi, both of their confirmations coincided with a new software release during the months of July and August (Pikmin 3 and Mario & Luigi: Dream Team respectively). Sakurai has since continued this tradition with the reveals of Toon Link and Sonic.
Peach:
Peach was surprisingly the next character confirmed after Luigi. Unlike, Olimar and Luigi, her reveal was not tied into a new software release, but rather an anniversary (namely the anniversary for the Japanese release of the first installment for Super Mario Bros.). With Peach's confirmation, all of the Mario veterans from Brawl have been confirmed. This has left many to believe that a Mario newcomer is much more likely to happen. However, there is one character's chances that were hurt by the confirmation of Peach, and that was Toad. Toad was again shown as a special for Peach. Despite, this, Toad is still a contender for Smash 4, albeit his chances are now lower than that of Paper Mario and Bowser Jr. Some believed this also left a possible newcomer to be confirmed to coincide with Super Mario 3D World, however, a week ago, Peach's page now has a link to the Super Mario 3D World.
Toon Link:
Toon Link's confirmation came as a surprise to many people because many believed him to be the one Nintendo Brawl veteran with the most iffy chances of returning. Complicating his chances were that he was shown to be a part of the Spirit Tracks stage and that there was a new incarnation of "child" Link in an upcoming Zelda title (A Link Between Worlds). Toon Link was also seen as someone who would be a "low priority veteran" and as such someone who would probably be among the last veterans added in, or someone that would be bumped out due to time constraints. Although Toon Link is obvious hidden character material, he was still confirmed very early on to promote the release of Wind Waker HD. Toon Link's confirmation opens up the possibility that other possible low priority veterans (Lucario, Ike, Roy, Lucas, one out of Falco/Wolf) may have already been added in, though its possible Toon Link was bumped up in terms of priority to finish due to the fact that character has actually seen activity since Brawl's release (Spirit Tracks and Wind Waker HD).
Sonic:
Sonic was yet another character whom many were questioning would return (although for different reasons). In most fighting games, guest characters typically don't return for another installment. Peopled wondered if Sakurai would do the same. However, unlike many other characters, Sonic continued to have crossover appearances with Nintendo characters via the Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games sub-series. Sega also expressed interest in seeing Sonic return for Smash 4 when asked at E3 2013. Like many were expecting, Sonic's return coincided with the upcoming release of Sonic Lost World. The only character Sonic's confirmation helps is Snake, since it shows that guests can indeed return in Smash Bros.
Marth:
Although Marth was always an "obvious" character to return for Smash 4, his confirmation came as a surprise since it was not tied into any new software release or anniversary. With the confirmations of Luigi, Toon Link, and Marth, it seems like Sakurai has no qualm of showing traditional hidden characters prior to release this time. Marth's confirmation does not change the speculation in regards to other Fire Emblem characters. Although Marth's confirmation was used to promote FE13 outside Japan, within Japan, his character page links to FE12, which was a remake of a game starring Marth. The biggest thing from Marth's confirmation is that Sakurai can confirm characters when there is no new software release or anniversary to tie it into with.
Zelda:
Many people were expecting Zelda's confirmation to coincide with the Japanese release of A Link Between Worlds. To the surprise of quite a few people, Zelda's design though did not seem to be based off her Skyward Sword appearance, and instead seemed to be a derivative of her Twilight Princess design. The only aspect of her confirmation that impacts the chances of other characters is the appearance of the Phantom (the bulky knight from the DS Zelda titles) that appeared in one of the screenshots for her confirmation update. There is debate about whether the Phantom is a new special for Zelda or if its an Assist Trophy. If its a new special, there is speculation that it could be Zelda's new down special. If that is the case, then that would mean Sheik likely has been cut, and replaced by Impa. If the Phantom does not replace Zelda's down special, and is instead a replacement for another special, then it could be a boon for Toon Zelda's prospects, since it is something deeply entwined with a Zelda game in which she had a prominent role in (Spirit Tracks). All in all, the only things Zelda's confirmation gives speculators to talk about is about the possibility of Sheik being cut, and whether Impa or Toon Zelda have a better chance of being added in.
King Dedede:
As with Zelda, many were expecting the confirmation of King Dedede to coincide with the Japanese release of Kirby Triple Deluxe. As with many other veteran confirmed so far, King Dedede had virtually no chance of being cut. However, his confirmation could potentially impact the chances of one possible contender for Smash 4, namely Bandanna Dee. If Bandanna Dee is not a playable character in Smash 4, its possible his role could have been relegated to being an Assist Trophy or a new enemy that Dedede throws. With the unveil of King Dedede, Sakurai now has the opportunity to show off a screenshot of Bandanna Dee alongside his "liege".
Lucario:
The confirmation of Lucario came as a surprise to many, but it should not have. Lucario despite being the poster Pokemon for Diamond/Pearl, remained a highly promoted Pokemon long after the release of his debut generation. Lucario made continual promoted appearances in future Pokemon games and within the anime. Lucario was also heavily featured in merchandise long after his debut period. It might even be safe to say that Lucario at this point may be the most popular and well known Pokemon introduced after the first generation.
Despite Lucario's continued promotion by the Pokemon Company and Game Freak, he was regarded by many Smash Bros. fans and speculators as the single most likely character from Brawl to be cut. Anyone who was aware of Lucario's continued prominence and promotion should have thought otherwise. Nevertheless, Lucario was definitely among the most likely characters to face the axe this time around (with only Snake, Ike, and possibly Lucas or Wolf being in more danger than him).
Lucario's confirmation bodes good news for all of Brawl's veterans (except possibly Snake) returning for Smash 4, as well as possibly for the return of Mewtwo and Roy.
Diddy Kong:
Diddy Kong's confirmation coinciding with the release of Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze came as a surprise to no one. Diddy Kong was virtually considered a shoe in to return for Smash 4. There is not much else to say about the confirmation of Diddy Kong.
Yoshi:
Yoshi's confirmation was only a matter of time. He had absolutely no chance of being cut, and was a playable character ever since the first installment of Smash Bros. There is not much else to say about Yoshi's confirmation in relation to roster speculation.
Zero Suit Samus:
Zero Suit Samus returning was to be expected, and she was very, very unlikely to be cut. The only thing surprising about Zero Suit Samus's return was that she is no longer tied to Samus as a fighter.
Sheik:
Many people were worried about Sheik possibly being cut in light of a possible alternative in the form of Impa being prominent in Skyward Sword, as well as Zelda having a new down-special move. It turns out that the combination of Ocarina of Time 3D, as well as Sheik's long-time veteran status, has made Sheik return once again in Smash Bros. The only character's chances to which Sheik's return hurts is Impa's. Due to the confirmation of Sheik, Impa is no longer a contender for a newcomer for the Zelda series.
Charizard:
Charizard was the only veteran that was confirmed during the April Nintendo Direct in which his confirmation actually has deep ramifications for roster speculation. Most obviously, the fact that Charizard is no longer tied to Pokemon Trainer (and the elimination of transformations in general), means that Pokemon Trainer has been cut.
However, the question remains whether Squirtle and Ivysaur have been cut. Charizard ended up returning due to the fact that he is still among the most popular Pokemon of all time as well as the fact that he (especially the Mega Evolution of Charizard) has been promoted a lot recently. Both Squirtle and Ivysaur lack the popularity and promotion that Mewtwo has, and the seniority of Jigglypuff, so both of these characters will end up being a lower priority than Mewtwo and Jigglypuff. However, both of these characters have unique and inventive movesets. In the end, their return depends on whether Sakurai is okay with the idea of having Pokemon being given eight slots in Smash 4 and how much time their team has.
With the confirmation of Charizard and Greninja, Pokemon now has four confirmed playable characters in Smash Bros. 4. The only series with more confirmed playable characters is Mario. There are many who believe that Sakurai will cap Mario, Zelda, and Pokemon at five slots each. If that happens, it will be the case where Jigglypuff and Mewtwo would have to fight over a slot. That would be a very contemptuous situation, and could easily go either way. However, the most likely scenario is that Sakurai simply brings both of them back, however, he could easily be enough of a bonehead to cut one of them.
De-Confirmations:
As with character confirmations, there is also much that can be learned from character de-confirmations. These are probably the saddest part of a speculation period since it means hopes are dashed for at least another six or seven years (and possibly forever for many others).
There has only been a few formal de-confirmations this time around. There are some characters, such as Balloon Fighter and Toad, that have not been formally de-confirmed but there are aspects to characters already confirmed, that make their chances quite low. Entries for Balloon Fighter and Toad, may be added if there is requests and interest for them.
Skull Kid:
Skull Kid was the first Assist Trophy confirmed for Smash 4. He was never a plausible contender for Smash 4, and actually achieved the best position he could plausibly hope for. His confirmation as an Assist Trophy does tell us several things though. One is that it could signify that Majora's Mask 3D could be in development (cryptic comments by Aunoma, and various teasings in A Link Between Worlds also compiles onto this). In regards to characters, the biggest contribution is that it means that characters with very loud and large fanbases won't get in if the character is not overally important to his/her franchise. Two characters that come to mind about this are Geno and Waluigi.
Starfy:
Starfy had received one new game since Brawl's release, and it was the first game in the series to have been released internationally. However, Starfy receiving a new game and becoming international was apparently not enough to save him from reprising his Brawl role as an Assist Trophy. This de-confirmation actually has pretty big implications. It could mean that a number of characters will reprise their Assist Trophy roles. It also means that C-list series developed by second or third-parties (Golden Sun and Sin & Punishment are the biggest two) will not make it to the playable roster. Starfy actually had a pretty solid resume, so his de-confirmation was pretty meaningful.
Waluigi:
Waluigi was probably within the Top 15 most wanted newcomers. However, despite being relatively highly requested, he was still a Mario character that has only been relegated to spinoffs. As such, he is a lesser priority than main series mainstays such as Toad and Bowser Jr., or sub-series hero Paper Mario. Waluigi reprising his Assist Tropy role was to be expected.
Lyn:
Lyn was probably the most wanted Fire Emblem newcomer outside of any character pertaining to FE13/Awakening and Roy. She was also the only FE7 lord to receive a DLC re-design for FE13. Her not being a central character to FE13 or having veteran status basically made it so she had little chance of getting into Smash 4. Lyn reprising her Assist Trophy role was the best she could have hoped, and she achieved that.
Saki:
Saki was one of the two main protagonists for Sin & Punishment. He was also among the most popular Assist Trophies for Brawl. Many were hoping that with the original game getting a sequel, that Saki would be upgraded to playable status. It turns out that Saki ended up reprising his Assist Trophy role. It could be that Sakurai regarded the Sin & Punishment series as being too niche to warrant being given a playable character, or that Saki's son, Isa, is the one that will be giving playable representation to the series.
Midna:
Midna was a central character and namesake of the GameCube swansong and Wii launch title, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess. Midna was the highest requested Zelda newcomer (alongside Toon Link) during the pre-Brawl era. Like with many other characters that were highly requested during the pre-Brawl era, her requests and popularity collapsed after Brawl's release. That she was able to secure an Assist Trophy role is impressive, and was the best she could have hoped for.
Ashley:
Ashley has been a re-occurring character within the WarioWare series since her debut in WarioWare: Touched. She was the most highly requested Wario newcomer during the pre-Brawl era, and she reprised that status again during the pre-Smash 4 era (though Captain Syrup was about as highly requested as her). In the end though, requests for an additional Wario character are rather low in comparison to several other series. That Ashley did end up getting in as an Assist Trophy is the best she could have hoped for.
Samurai Goroh:
Samurai Goroh is probably the most well-known F-Zero character after Captain Falcon. Although he has had a notable amount of requests ever since the pre-Melee days, and that many people felt that an additional playable F-Zero character is long overdue, Goroh again ended up reprising his Assist Trophy from Brawl. Goroh and Black Shadow were basically tied with one another in terms of requests during the pre-Smash 4 era for an additional playable F-Zero character. This was the outcome that was to be expected for Goroh if he did not get a playable role.
Dark Samus:
Darl Samus was the main antagonist of the Metroid Prime trilogy. She was also a highly requested newcomer during the pre-Brawl era, and still remained a secondary choice for a Metroid newcomer during the pre-Smash 4 era. Due to the fact that the Prime trilogy is over and how much her requests and popularity have collapsed since the pre-Brawl era, the Assist Trophy role she claimed was the best she could have hoped for. It is interesting how the most iconic Metroid enemies (with the exception of Ridley), have all claimed Assist Trophy spots. Metroid, Mother Brain, and Dark Samus make three Assist Trophies for the Metroid series, which is probably more than most other series.
