The Official Thread For the Sal Romano/Gematsu Leak

[Meelow]

Falco is almost certainly a secret character, so I highly doubt this.

I don't think it matters if they are a starting character or not, they announced Luigi back in August and he is a unlockable character.

 

[Ryuutakeshi]

Are we really assuming the 33 characters we've been shown are all starters?

 

[JaidynReiman]

I don't think it matters if they are a starting character or not, they announced Luigi back in August and he is a unlockable character.

We don't know that honestly. I don't think it was ever stated Luigi was unlockable. He's always been unlockable in the past, but it doesn't mean he is this time.

Are we really assuming the 33 characters we've been shown are all starters?

I'd say most of them are. We've probably only got 1-3 unlockables other than the third-parties already announced (I'm guessing third-parties will once again be unlockable). I'm expecting about 30 starters at this point (though I doubt all of the current characters are starters, just most of them).

 

[Ryuutakeshi]

At that point why bother with unlockables at all?

 

[praline]

I don't think it matters if they are a starting character or not, they announced Luigi back in August and he is a unlockable character.

Pretty sure he only revealed Luigi for Year of Luigi.

 

[JaidynReiman]

At that point why bother with unlockables at all?

If we've got around 50 characters, that's almost half the cast being unlockable.

 

[Minato Arisato]

Um...did I miss anything? Why's this thread so active all of a sudden?

 

[ScottyWK]

Um...did I miss anything? Why's this thread so active all of a sudden?

It's probably easier just clicking back a few pages and checking for yourself...

...but no, you didn't miss anything. Some stupid GameFAQs leak saying Falco would come this week.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Oh. Point. Such a shame.

But the upside to this is that custom movesets should help semiclones further differentiate themselves from their counterparts. For example, Toon Link will probably wind up with fire and ice arrows and I wouldn't be surprised if these customizations were allowed competitively or possibly became the preferred default.

 

[mygamecube]

As much as I would love for that Falco leak to come true, that's not going to happen. I'm content that Falco is a secret character, just like the last two Smash titles, so he won't be revealed until post release in September. Plus, the rest of the details on that leak is just....eww.

 

[Meelow]

We don't know that honestly. I don't think it was ever stated Luigi was unlockable. He's always been unlockable in the past, but it doesn't mean he is this time.

Yes, but I mean as of right now, most people think he's unlockable since he was in the past, and if he is a starter, we already have 33 characters in, I don't think they are all starters (unless we don't have unlockable characters this time)

Pretty sure he only revealed Luigi for Year of Luigi.

Yeah but Toon Link, Marth, etc were also unveiled when they are all unlockable.

 

[JaidynReiman]

Yes, but I mean as of right now, most people think he's unlockable since he was in the past, and if he is a starter, we already have 33 characters in, I don't think they are all starters (unless we don't have unlockable characters this time)



Yeah but Toon Link, Marth, etc were also unveiled when they are all unlockable.

Marth is on the cover. The likelihood is that Marth is no longer unlockable. That said Toon Link probably still is unlockable.

 

[Meelow]

Marth is on the cover. The likelihood is that Marth is no longer unlockable. That said Toon Link probably still is unlockable.

Yes.

Who knows, maybe the demo showed us who are the starters, probably not seeing how it is an outdated demo but it's possible.

 

[Xavier :D]

So...Falco this week huh?

 

[Deoxys911]

Are we really assuming the 33 characters we've been shown are all starters?

Some people are. I assume so they can tell themselves that Sal's leak only listed starting characters and Pac-Man, so they can still hope for more characters. I, for one, do not at all expect Toon Link, Sonic, Mega Man, Luigi, Pac-Man, Rosalina, Lucario, Greninja, Chrom, Chorus Kids, or Shulk to be starters. I also expect Ike to be unlockable, but I'm less sure of his status than the others'.

 

[NoiseHERO]

So...Falco this week huh?

This doesn't sound TOO unbelievable regardless of this leak imo <_>

I mean we gotta get a few more casual website update char reveals.

But ehn there's still 4 months for them to drip feed that info...

 

[praline]

Yes, but I mean as of right now, most people think he's unlockable since he was in the past, and if he is a starter, we already have 33 characters in, I don't think they are all starters (unless we don't have unlockable characters this time)



Yeah but Toon Link, Marth, etc were also unveiled when they are all unlockable.

Marth is not unlockable!

 

[UberPyro64]

At this point I don't think there will be any secret characters. All the character will be ready at the start and we'll have only the new moves to unlock instead. Would be interesting.

Anyway I like this new leak. I'd like to see Falco this week and Mewtwo being back as well as the confirmation of Lucas being cut before Ness (thank god though I do like Lucas). Though it isn't too likely to be real.

K. Rool not being playable is a bit of a shame but he hasn't been in a main DK game since the two DS games and before that Donkey Kong 64. So w/e. I'll live. As for other DK character not being leaked, I think it's to do with the fact that Sakurai probably didn't know about Tropcial Freeze. Returns only had Donkey and Diddy. So it makes sense that those two would be the only ones still. Smash 5 however could introduce Dixie or Cranky (or even K. Rool if they bring him back).

But yeah I'm confident that Chorus Kids, Chrom and Shulk are our last newcomers. If this new GameFAQs leak is real which again isn't too likely, I could see our 48 character roster perfectly.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Some people are. I assume so they can tell themselves that Sal's leak only listed starting characters and Pac-Man, so they can still hope for more characters. I, for one, do not at all expect Toon Link, Sonic, Mega Man, Luigi, Pac-Man, Rosalina, Lucario, Greninja, Chrom, Chorus Kids, or Shulk to be starters. I also expect Ike to be unlockable, but I'm less sure of his status than the others'.

Rosalina's a starter, she's on the box.

 

[Ryuutakeshi]

I thinkcSakurai is just showing us all the characters. We still need to unlock them.

 

[Nintendotard]

I thinkcSakurai is just showing us all the characters. We still need to unlock them.

Hoping. Unlockables are fun! And I guess Luigi will be the only unlockable Mario character this time around again? Hmm...

 

[JaidynReiman]

I thinkcSakurai is just showing us all the characters. We still need to unlock them.

Not likely. We get about 1-2 characters a month and we have one direct left before release. We'll probably get three more veteran reveals and one more Newcomer reveal and that's it. We may get the rest announced after release like in Brawl, but by then we'll know the entire cast already anyway from the Japanese release.

 

[Ryuutakeshi]

Not likely. We get about 1-2 characters a month and we have one direct left before release. We'll probably get three more veteran reveals and one more Newcomer reveal and that's it. We may get the rest announced after release like in Brawl, but by then we'll know the entire cast already anyway from the Japanese release.

I don't know. It just seems like there's a high volume of characters we've see that really should be unlockables.

 

[TheUnsullied]

Everyone on the box is a starter... simple as that

 

[JaidynReiman]

I don't know. It just seems like there's a high volume of characters we've see that really should be unlockables.

If anything I'd say only about 3-6 of the known characters are unlockable (including the third-parties). We may have a few unlockable characters announced before released, but I don't see why they'd eliminate secret unlockables all-together. Besides which, Sakurai would have to announce a new character every WEEK to get the entire roster out before release. Its NOT going to happen.

 

[Ryuutakeshi]

But... but I want a new character every week...

 

[JaidynReiman]

But... but I want a new character every week...

Yeah, it'd be awesome. (But its not going to happen.)

 

[Godking123]

Alright so Sakurai at last E3 when asked about Mewtwo's inclusion replied to the asker, saying, "We are thinking about it..." Well didn't Sakurai say every character they would add was considered in the beginning stages of development? With this in mind, could it mean that Mewtwo was possibly considered when they composed the list of newcomers and returning veterans? Because now its quite obvious looking back that the team knew which characters would all most likely make it in, even as far back as last year's E3. So does this mean Mewtwo was on the paper (or whatever they used to show/represent final roster) since Sakurai's statement at last year's E3 sort of matches up with what he said about character roster at the roundtable.

idk what to think about the phychic lord Mewtwo lol

 

[JaidynReiman]

Alright so Sakurai at last E3 when asked about Mewtwo's inclusion replied to the asker, saying, "We are thinking about it..." Well didn't Sakurai say every character they would add was considered in the beginning stages of development? With this in mind, could it mean that Mewtwo was possibly considered when they composed the list of newcomers and returning veterans? Because now its quite obvious looking back that the team knew which characters would all most likely make it in, even as far back as last year's E3. So does this mean Mewtwo was on the paper (or whatever they used to show/represent final roster) since Sakurai's statement at last year's E3 sort of matches up with what he said about character roster at the roundtable.

idk what to think about the phychic lord Mewtwo lol

If Mewtwo is playable, then yes, he was in their early plans. What does it matter, though? There's nothing to suggest the entire list got leaked, just bits and pieces of information. And even then this guy is only leaking Newcomers. Mewtwo is NOT a Newcomer.

 

[Starbound]

Question that will likely be irrelevant come the end of this week but I want to ask it anyways.

What's the probability of correcting predicting the reveal week of one specific character given that the roster could consist of 47-54 characters?

Basically, how lucky of a lucky guess is it if this Petill leak, which would support the Gematsu leak more than it already is, turns our to be true?

 

[Young Marth]

Pretty sure he only revealed Luigi for Year of Luigi.

Wouldn't Toon Link be unlockable?

 

[Ryuutakeshi]

Question that will likely be irrelevant come the end of this week but I want to ask it anyways.

What's the probability of correcting predicting the reveal week of one specific character given that the roster could consist of 47-54 characters?

Basically, how lucky of a lucky guess is it if this Petill leak, which would support the Gematsu leak more than it already is, turns our to be true?

Alright, so the game comes out in Japan on September 13. That's in 12 weeks. There are currently 33 revealed characters. Let's assume that we have the 47 character roster.

S0 47-33 is 14 remaining characters. The chances of picking a specific one of those characters is 1/14 or about 7%. The chances of picking a specific week (assuming all characters are revealed on fridays with one character a week) is 1/12 or 8.33%. The chances of picking one character on one specific week is 1/168 or about 0.6%. This is because the two probabilities are independent of each other.

So yes, there is a 0.6% chance that Falco will be shown this Friday, assuming that a new character is revealed every friday with one character per week and that we only have a 47 man roster.

If I made any errors in calculating this please let me know, but I think the point still stands.

 

[papagenos]

I actually think all 3 of the remaining newcomers will be shown before the games release... or at least before the WiiU release.

why? because part of the reason sakurai said he is now doing the newcomer trailers is because he didn't like the fact that the subspace emissary cut scenes were "spoiled" online and everyone knew the roster before playing the game.

the reason for the trailers is to replace those cut scenes so i could very well see the rest of these trailers being shown before the games release since otherwise, once again, people will just go watch them online when they were suppose to be "secret"... this way the "cut scenes" for the game are being "unlocked" as we build up to the game rather than keeping them secret and having someone else unlock them and then people just marathon them online and kill the experience. doing it this way allows sakurai to still control that experience of "unlocking secrets", tho its done before the games release rather than after.

 

[Young Marth]

I actually think all 3 of the remaining newcomers will be shown before the games release... or at least before the WiiU release.

why? because part of the reason sakurai said he is now doing the newcomer trailers is because he didn't like the fact that the subspace emissary cut scenes were "spoiled" online and everyone knew the roster before playing the game.

the reason for the trailers is to replace those cut scenes so i could very well see the rest of these trailers being shown before the games release since otherwise, once again, people will just go watch them online when they were suppose to be "secret"... this way the "cut scenes" for the game are being "unlocked" as we build up to the game rather than keeping them secret and having someone else unlock them and then people just marathon them online and kill the experience. doing it this way allows sakurai to still control that experience of "unlocking secrets", tho its done before the games release rather than after.

but that would mean one in august one in july and one in september (two in one month it think is overkill.) but the game releases september 13th (in japan) and having one that close to release would be weird.

 

[JaidynReiman]

I actually think all 3 of the remaining newcomers will be shown before the games release... or at least before the WiiU release.

why? because part of the reason sakurai said he is now doing the newcomer trailers is because he didn't like the fact that the subspace emissary cut scenes were "spoiled" online and everyone knew the roster before playing the game.

the reason for the trailers is to replace those cut scenes so i could very well see the rest of these trailers being shown before the games release since otherwise, once again, people will just go watch them online when they were suppose to be "secret"... this way the "cut scenes" for the game are being "unlocked" as we build up to the game rather than keeping them secret and having someone else unlock them and then people just marathon them online and kill the experience. doing it this way allows sakurai to still control that experience of "unlocking secrets", tho its done before the games release rather than after.

I disagree completely. They always show off new characters at directs or major events. They'd have to completely change how they reveal newcomers to do this. If they show off all currently known newcomers for release, I think it'd be even MORE likely we'd have secret newcomers we don't know about.

I think its very well possible this was planned at one time (hence Pac-Man and Mii originally planned to be at E3 2013) but it was canceled in favor of spreading out the character reveals more.

 

[Omega Tyrant]

I actually think all 3 of the remaining newcomers will be shown before the games release... or at least before the WiiU release.

why? because part of the reason sakurai said he is now doing the newcomer trailers is because he didn't like the fact that the subspace emissary cut scenes were "spoiled" online and everyone knew the roster before playing the game.

the reason for the trailers is to replace those cut scenes so i could very well see the rest of these trailers being shown before the games release since otherwise, once again, people will just go watch them online when they were suppose to be "secret"... this way the "cut scenes" for the game are being "unlocked" as we build up to the game rather than keeping them secret and having someone else unlock them and then people just marathon them online and kill the experience. doing it this way allows sakurai to still control that experience of "unlocking secrets", tho its done before the games release rather than after.

No, Sakurai's problems with the the cutscenes on youtube was not because they "spoiled". The exact quote:

"Unfortunately, the movie scenes we worked hard to create were uploaded onto the internet." Sakurai lamented. "You can only truly wow a player the first time he sees [a cutscene]. I felt if players saw the cutscenes outside of the game, they would no longer serve as rewards for playing the game, so I've decided against having them."

The problem was they were simply a waste of resources if people could fully enjoy them without actually buying and playing the game. Why put so much development and space into something purely extraneous that wouldn't actually move copies off the shelves? It had nothing to do with being "spoilers".

 

[Vintage Creep]

I thinkcSakurai is just showing us all the characters. We still need to unlock them.

Man are you guys jumping to conclusions.
I mean why? What happened, what changed? LOL

 

[Omega Tyrant]

Man are you guys jumping to conclusions.
I mean why? What happened, what changed? LOL

Because of the cutscenes on youtube comment that people keep misinterpreting and a few previous unlockable characters were revealed (because it's apparently impossible for a previous unlockable to become a starter, nevermind Ness and Falcon having went back and forth in the past games).

 

[Ryuutakeshi]

Well, it's not so much jumping to conclusions as it is establishing hypothesis. Let's see. Previously in smash you started out with a decent sized roster but had many characters you needed to unlock. Most of these characters were hidden to preserve the surprise. Now we have Smash 4 where 33 characters have already been announced. I believe this to be too large for a starting roster based on history and am thus having to assume that some of these characters are unlockables. Now, if Sakurai is showing us some unlockables ahead of time, why not show all? After all, he seems to not lie the internet ruining the surprise for people. In this situation, he controls the surprise for everyone. Could I be wrong? Oh yes, and it won't bother me if I am. But I think it reasonable to at least hypothesize that Sakurai will show all unlockable characters prior to release.

 

[Omega Tyrant]

Well, it's not so much jumping to conclusions as it is establishing hypothesis. Let's see. Previously in smash you started out with a decent sized roster but had many characters you needed to unlock. Most of these characters were hidden to preserve the surprise. Now we have Smash 4 where 33 characters have already been announced. I believe this to be too large for a starting roster based on history and am thus having to assume that some of these characters are unlockables. Now, if Sakurai is showing us some unlockables ahead of time, why not show all? After all, he seems to not lie the internet ruining the surprise for people. In this situation, he controls the surprise for everyone. Could I be wrong? Oh yes, and it won't bother me if I am. But I think it reasonable to at least hypothesize that Sakurai will show all unlockable characters prior to release.

Put the third parties as unlockable, lets add 2 to 3 more characters, the likely amount to be revealed before release, with a roster of 50-53, and the starter-unlockable ratio is inline with the previous games. Having around 33 starters characters is not "too much" (also, each of the previous Smash games' starter roster was larger or nearly as large as the previous game's entire cast, if anything the amount of characters revealed is indicative of how much larger the roster is, not "secrets are being cut")..

After all, he seems to not lie the internet ruining the surprise for people.

Look at what I pointed out a few posts above, he never said he "didn't like the internet ruining surprises", he didn't like the internet making it so that you didn't need to buy and play the game to enjoy the cutscenes. The cutscenes were cut because they were a waste of resources on something that wouldn't actually move copies off the shelves, not because of "internet ruined mah surprises".