SMASHPOLL: The 2010 Federal Election

[isthattim?]

that's unfortunate; the polls have a different kind of credibility, because they directly affect voter confidence through manipulative popular media.

The news needs to create any sort of closeness they can so people pay attention to them, noone wants to watch the news if there's no drama the most successful polling companies in australia are the two that pander most to what the news wants.
advanced election watchers will note that the neilsen poll is often in conflict with morgan gallup, this is so each different news can decide which story they want to run and what results they want to emphasise.

corporations ruins research

 

[Shaya]

in politics, small percentage swing is actually has a lot more worth than you'd think.

When Rudd was in, the Labour/Lib was at like 45/55, which equates to a "land slide victory for liberals if they were an election held today".

Elections are won by number of seats.
If 55% of people vote liberal across the entire country, averaged out, that equates to every single federal seat being taken by liberal.

Most people always vote for the same, only about 30% or less of voters actually aren't static in their voting.

 

[CAOTIC]

If 55% of people vote liberal across the entire country, averaged out, that equates to every single federal seat being taken by liberal.

not every seat, only marginal/bellweather ones. eden-monaro being the most well-known, and many of the seq seats atm. bellweather seats are the best indicators of the swing since they always vote of the party that is elected. there's not that many of those kind of seats

obv some seats are territorial to alp or labor and haven't changed hands since a half-century.

the avg-ing out illustration is silly, since thats not how it works and doesnt demonstrate how swings are interpreted into nationwide voting behaviours.


---

but if the Julia Gillard 49%/Tony Abbot 51% outcome happens after the election, it wouldn't be a crushing defeat, but a swing against labor of about 3% (i think). rudd in 07 was more crushing than that.

 

[Mini Mic]

It annoys me how much emphasis people put on the opinions of the party leaders. It's Australia, you don't even vote for the PM and even if you did, they alone don't have the ability to create laws on their own. Besides, do you think either of the key parties actually believe in half the view they present. Both have campaign teams working around the clock, paying close attention to the media to see what people are saying so they can manage their campaign (and views) around what the people want, now what they plan to deliver. Why wouldn't they? They know the other party is going to be so they can't afford not to.

I refuse to entertain the idea that democracy is a good way of forming government by giving me a bunch of ****ty alternatives, like being made to choose between the electric chair and lethal injection. Rather, instead of writing numbered preferences I'll be writing what I think of each of the parties next to the names of their candidates.

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

Greens, with family first and liberal dead last.

The attacks on Julia Gillard for being an atheist are ridiculous - how dare she not adopt the rituals, beliefs and questionable absolute morality of centuries old desert cults...

 

[Shaya]

what? who cares she's an atheist from our generation?

 

[Zero]

People from last generation who were brainwashed into thinking atheism = satanism?

Maybe. But this isn't America.

But she's getting attacks for being atheist? really?

 

[Toby.]

inb4 alzi god preaching

 

[Technodeath]

Alzi is banned.

 

[Nova]

Lololol suck it Alzi.
.....& you too "god", "allah", "*******".

You're not even important enough to get caps, losers.
Should have created humanity better, fail.

Serious: I'll vote for Gillard now.

 

[xXArrowXx]

atheism.. well it doesn't really affect how to govern a country. its more about the morals she believes which seem fine to me.

its just media mind ****ing, by saying that religions eg. christianity follow good morals, and atheism doesn't. just to make it seem more news worthy.

 

[Mic_128]

But she's getting attacks for being atheist? really?

The churches are not happy the idea of an atheist PM because she might decide to take away the 'churches don't pay tax' situation.

 

[dainbramage]

Most churches still would count as a not-for-profit organization and wouldn't pay taxes anyway.


EDIT: The whole concept of "good, christian morals" is profoundly stupid. Christian morality is based on "if you're not a nice bloke, you GO TO HELL." Nice to see christianity promoting altruism rather than selfishness there.

 

[xXArrowXx]

no its not. its about repentance and forgiveness.. :/

 

[Zero]

repentance n. 1. The process of accepting that you are unworthy human scum and only an invisible sky man can absolve you of your sin of being born. The penalty of non-compliance is eternal fire and brimstone.

 

[xXArrowXx]

you are not born into sin.. apparently this dude named jesus christ died, that is why.
both u have quite misconstruded views on christianity it seems. They only had that view ages back due to it being easy to understand and a suspicious era.
i dont sacrifice goat but i remain a good bloke, how is this possible :S
getting off topic...

 

[Zero]

Spoiler

It means you aren't a true Christian

 

[CAOTIC]

all of humanity has a sin nature. we weren't created perfectly in his image; we were created with flaws. you are born with an innate inclination to sin, but at the same time, god gave people the power of free will to make decisions. so yes, you actually are born into sin. jesus dying to save you from your sin -- is precisely why ruby is correct in saying that only an invisible sky man can absolve you of your sin of being born.

 

[xXArrowXx]

heard somewhere tho u have to understand what the sin is to do it.. but it is inevitable so i guess born into sin. its not a sin to be born.. >.>

 

[Mic_128]

"Have you ever really read this thing? Technically, we're not allowed to go to the bathroom."

 

[tibs7]

Mic joking about what is said in the bible is a serious offence to some, like me.
Mic why say that?

 

[Zero]

heard somewhere tho u have to understand what the sin is to do it.. but it is inevitable so i guess born into sin. its not a sin to be born.. >.>

Does it say this in the Bible? Or was it said by some sad theologian?

 

[Shaya]

Old testament (all that matters, mind you, GO TO HELL; oh wait - no such thing in the old testament, poor Christianity feeling the need to take Greek/European mythology into it's scope) states the opposite

"Be fruitful and multiply" is the first commandment.

Christianity is annoying.
But I don't want to really upset people with that one [by going on].

When it's said that you're not meant to go to the bathroom, it's more of a commandment relating to that we're meant to "squat" like how Chinese/Asian bathrooms have it.

 

[xXArrowXx]

christians dont ge all teachings from bible.. so yeah some dude.
atheism is annoying. just as much as christianity.

 

[Shaya]

Atheism is mostly complacent.
They get rowdy at rules/laws/regulations that "force" religion down their throats.

Christianity commands it's people to convert others.
(was the reason for pseudo-mass genocide by Christians during the Crusades, like in countries such as Spain which used to be Muslim with large Jewish settlements; it was either "convert or die").

You can see why they're at ends with each other.

 

[Pete278]

Bloody hell, I came into this thread to see political discussion. I didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition.

 

[Mic_128]

 

[Zero]

WELL YOU GET THE SPANISH INQUISITION

Arrow why do you ignore parts of the Bible? Isn't the Word of God good enough for you?

As for atheism being "annoying", how can it be annoying when it isn't "anything"? It's the lack of something. Are you annoyed that there is nothing there?

 

[Shaya]

Christian teachings forcefully ignore most of the bible already.
It was a very "pick and choose what we follow", "dabble in 'borrowing' local mythologies of regions we want to convert for ease of understanding".

But this is okay, it -really is- impossible to follow most commandments in the bible these days. And Christianity wouldn't be a main stream religion today without the slow progression it made through a convergence of the main stream of the time (Jesus was the Roman Sun God back in my day 'yall).

Belief in ONE God is honestly a different matter to how the progression of religion turned out though. Complacency has always been the standard in life style, so the amount of "fear" that had to be articulated was extreme.

Religion dictating politics is still a problem today. If Labour were to lose the election purely through a fear campaign (rinse repeat) then I would be disappointed.

The removal of "Tax Free" for religious institutions, however, is something that is election deciding. You aren't going to be making friends when a previous Labour government tried this with a referendum in the past, and was turned down and burned in flames.

 

[Hobobloke]

Bloody hell, I came into this thread to see political discussion. I didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition.

NOBODY EXPECTS THE SPANISH INQUISITION!

Spoiler

caps

EDIT:****ing time travel.

 

[CAOTIC]

heard somewhere tho u have to understand what the sin is to do it.. but it is inevitable so i guess born into sin. its not a sin to be born.. >.>

obviously its not a sin to exist. you're just stating what doesn't need to be said because of a minor sentence misconstruct


anyway, since there's so many sex party fans here, watch this video of them vs. family first:


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oh and tibi - we live in a democracy with a right to free speech. it means we are allowed to speak without censorship or limitation, even if its offensive to some. conversely, christianity could be offensive to others, but it's ok to express that.

 

[oldmanondorf_]

Greens will win the federal election....... for labour, by preferences.

I don't like either major party. Will probably vote lib because I think labour will win and the closer the result and distribution of seats, the less **** the new government will be (hopefully)

Even though my electorate is a secure labour seat, so it would just be a waste... might just vote independent.

 

[Zero]

What is this Family First ad hominem garbage LOL

the marriage thing again, soigh

man family first

 

[CAOTIC]

Greens will win the federal election....... for labour, by preferences.

I don't like either major party. Will probably vote lib because I think labour will win and the closer the result and distribution of seats, the less **** the new government will be (hopefully)

Even though my electorate is a secure labour seat, so it would just be a waste... might just vote independent.

but governments with little or no control tend to be more ****, because bills that they try and pass, stalemate in parliament. if people are going to elect a majority government, they should give them some capacity to pass in what they have proposed to the people, otherwise you have no progress. perfectly split houses could also be bad because then you're left with the indys like xenophon/fielding swinging the balance of power; which is way too much influence for one/two people, and they take advantage of the even house.

2c

 

[Lachlan]

team dragonforce for election '10

 

[Yokai]

Ill be voting greens, as long as the local member is there (google the member for griffith) SHE IS HOT. also, Rudd is in my electorate so i think he will get the goods though.

 

[xXArrowXx]

You shall have no other gods before me
You shall not make for yourself an idol
You shall not make wrongful use of the name of your God
Remember the Sabbath and keep it holy
Honor your father and mother
You shall not murder***
You shall not commit adultery
You shall not steal****
You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor
You shall not covet***** your neighbor's wife
You shall not covet***** anything that belongs to your neighbor

yeah almost impossible... >.> i think i fail with the sabbath day one.. but i repent for that if i do it =P

and yeah u dont follow everything said in the bible... what r u trying to do, disprove the bible? by saying it has done bad stuff ages ago. it was written by men >.> make your own mind up about what to follow, if you can justify it to yourself its fine as far as god is concerned. doesn't mean society will like it, and would cast a stigmatism on the rest of the christians due to your over generalisation.

needs more inquisition lolol

i didn't say atheism was annoying for same reason >.>

bleh sick of this ****

i am thinking liberal now :/ saw some bad commericals by labour against them

 

[Zero]

If the Bible was written by men, why do you believe it as if it were true?

 

[tibs7]

Zero what does that even mean?

Caotic I'm aware of freedom of speech. But when mic quotes something from the Simpsons to bag out something he clearly has no idea about is quite immature and stupid.

 

[Pete278]

I think Mic was just trying to be funny.