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Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

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Paperchampion23

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The final newcomer has NEVER been a big hype one.
This is ENTIRELY subjective. I went bat**** for Shulk and Bowser Jr. "Hype" characters is can be whatever people make them out to be. We could get Banjo, Geno, and Isaac as final characters, or we could get Prince Sable and a group of people will be hyped about the character no matter what everyone thinks..
 

Nekoo

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It's not cherry picking though because of the two specific things I mentioned: this is the only instance of Sora as DLC we have to cross reference and it's an incredibly rare instance of a notable, franchise leading character in a game from its own creator and studio producer but only being available as free DLC for roughly two months. There's other things to note too like Sora not being a cameo in the World Ends With You games but Neku appearing in Kingdom Hearts games despite, again, having the same creator, same studio, and a lot of the same developers, stacking more evidence that the Disney VP's statements on creative control were niceties and little else.

I....
You know what? You won.

I can't fight against someone not understanding how Crossover DLC works in general.
Do you know that it's A NORMAL THINGS for crossover DLC to be limited in time right? God-Eater, SAO, Tales Of, Final Fantasy XV WITH ALL OF ITS CROSSOVER , THE ****TONS OF GATCHA GAMES THAT DO 99999 CROSSOVER WITH TONS OF FRANCHISE

It have nothing to do with Creative Control.
It's called a Deal. You make a deal for a CrossOver that makes both parties Happy.
Heck, I'm betting that Disney had no problem with Sora in WoF, but Square just decided to make it limited in Time BECAUSE it was to celebrate KH 2.8

And that things about TWEWY is maybe because Nomura just DIDNT want to put Sora in, but wanted to put Neku in KH?

But now, that's just cherrypicking for the sake of finding a point when there more evidence against what you say.
I'm done.
 

CosmicQuark

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This is ENTIRELY subjective. I went bat**** for Shulk and Bowser Jr. "Hype" characters is can be whatever people make them out to be. We could get Banjo, Geno, and Isaac as final characters, or we could get Prince Sable and a group of people will be hyped about the character no matter what everyone thinks..
Not to mention, every veteran returning, all characters being revealed before the game launches, and being released in the same year it was announced also has never happened. Their marketing strategy may have changed accordingly.
 

Tart

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Seeing some say that they're sure we're basically done with newcomers after Ken/Incineroar.. It's possible, but until there's proof of that, we could always get more. Heck, even the prominent leakers have admitted that they don't know the final roster count and we've gotten more characters than they knew about in the past, so it's not too crazy to expect more than those two before DLC rolls out.
 

Z25

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I honestly highly doubt that the final two reveals would be a Pokémon and an Echo Fighter lol.

That just doesn’t seem like something Sakurai would go for.
My bet is that final reveal goes to a new franchise character(see shulk and Olimar) or a third party( see bayo)

I’m personally leaning towards it being third party. With incenroar and Ken being revealed next, then a direct for smash revealing the final third parties, weather it be Sora, Geno, Steve or a combination.

I don’t see the cycle of reveals ending on a character for a rep franchise. It’s always someone new or a third party.
 

Momotsuki

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My point is people can make stupid conjectures based on anything and none of it matters until we actually know something concrete. Sora's Keychain included. Community rules never matter.
While I think Mickey's likeness being present in Sora's design as a Smash Bros. fighter is unlikely, I really can't say it's impossible. I'm not Sakurai; I don't get to decide what is or isn't possible.
 

Untouch

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I decided to watch an old Bill Trinen interview because people were saying it said that we may not be getting DLC...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thehPvqow1I

Some interesting points.
Bill basically almost straight up says we're getting a Testfire like event, or very strongly implies it. (3:36)
He talked about getting the game DONE before thinking about DLC not RELEASED. (7:36)

I don't know if the game has gone gold yet, Nintendo doesn't typically announce that or not, but he could be planning DLC before the game is out.
 

New_Dumal

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I also think that the "this character is coming as an DLC" will happen.
People will be hyped for DLC in general if they play this card.
Even more if the first character to appear as DLC be Sora. I'll repeat myself on this subject for the last time (I swear): Only Sora and Crash can bring the level of hype of the old third parties (mainly Cloud, Megaman and Sonic). Take a look at the reveal of Simon, it felt not that special because the franchise is not a hit for the casual portion of people.

Including both Steve and Crash/Sora, Smash would achieve two third parties mainly know by Microsoft/Sony.
It's cool and the kind of thing I think Sakurai may see as crossing a new line.
I'm more than satisfied with the roster already and the number of newcomers is bigger than I expected from the start.
But thet buried themselves with the compromise of a last hype announcement and I feel that everything they built until now may fade if they don't announce a popular/amazing one at the end.The unique may to avoid this is with the "this famoud character is coming as DLC, wait for it!"
 

staindgrey

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I mean we already know that this Smash is treating reveals a bit differently and are catering more towards the fans unlike previous entries did like with characters such as K Rool and Ridley, to have it end with two characters clearly not influenced by that demographic would just be anti-climactic. (And at least Shulk was highly requested in Japan so there was a bit of a climax to him being revealed)
You still have to consider, though, the way they want to market it. Saving the best character for last may be enjoyable for us as fans losing ourselves to our own hype, but what use is it to the company trying to sell their game to keep a massive, customer-winning reveal for right before the game launches? You don't get to use that character as early promotion or on the box art to draw fans' eyes. There's a reason they finished with less exciting characters in the previous two installments and, I'd argue, it has nothing to do with fan input being a larger factor now than before.

They won us over initially with Inklings and Ridley. Then they kept the good times rolling with Simon and K. Rool. Then they appealed to the long-waiting Animal Crossing demographic by announcing Isabelle and the next AC in tandem. They've already won all the preorders they're going to get; I don't think announcing Geno, for instance, once the game goes gold is really going to gain them any more sales. Likewise, I don't think not announcing him would lose any.

Most games spill their biggest selling points way in advance so they don't lose your interest to their competition.
 
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Z25

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I also think that the "this character is coming as an DLC" will happen.
People will be hyped for DLC in general if they play this card.
Even more if the first character to appear as DLC be Sora. I'll repeat myself on this subject for the last time (I swear): Only Sora and Crash can bring the level of hype of the old third parties (mainly Cloud, Megaman and Sonic). Take a look at the reveal of Simon, it felt not that special because the franchise is not a hit for the casual portion of people.

Including both Steve and Crash/Sora, Smash would achieve two third parties mainly know by Microsoft/Sony.
It's cool and the kind of thing I think Sakurai may see as crossing a new line.
I'm more than satisfied with the roster already and the number of newcomers is bigger than I expected from the start.
But thet buried themselves with the compromise of a last hype announcement and I feel that everything they built until now may fade if they don't announce a popular/amazing one at the end.The unique may to avoid this is with the "this famoud character is coming as DLC, wait for it!"
To be fair.

Everyone and their dad that worked at Nintendo knew Simon was for sure coming. 90 percent of the smash fan base believed Vergeben and every leak had Simon. Not to mention Nintendo leaking castlevania content the night before the direct. It really toned down the hype he would have had otherwise
 

Untouch

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The concept of starting off strong is that they want to reel people in very early on, keeping the speculation and hype going and spreading via word of mouth.
By the time the game launches they want to already have most of the playerbased roped in so they buy it anyways.
Smash 4 started with Megaman, Brawl started with Snake, it's no mystery here.
 

NintenZ

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You still have to consider, though, the way they want to market it. Saving the best character for last may be enjoyable for us as fans losing ourselves to our own hype, but what use is it to the company trying to sell their game to keep a massive, customer-winning reveal for right before the game launches? You don't get to use that character as early promotion or on the box art to draw fans' eyes. There's a reason they finished with less exciting characters in the previous two installments and, I'd argue, it has nothing to do with fan input being a larger factor now than before.

They won us over initially with Inklings and Ridley. Then they kept the good times rolling with Simon and K. Rool. Then they appealed to the long-waiting Animal Crossing demographic by announcing Isabelle and the next AC in tandem. They've already won all the preorders they're going to get; I don't think announcing Geno, for instance, once the game goes gold is really going to gain them any more sales. Likewise, I don't think not announcing him would lose any.

Most games spill their biggest selling points way in advance so they don't lose your interest to their competition.
...I mean you need to consider that this is entirely subjective what we consider “Exciting” since in Japan Shulk was a HUGE reveal for them, he was literally one of their most requested characters by a long shot, and you also have to consider that there were characters revealed after release so I’d argue that it still does matter pleasing the fans, as Sakurai said, this game is aimed less are the casual demographic and more at the core demographic, so reveals still aimed at them even close to release make sense.

Also I’m really confused what you mean by “long-waiting” in terms of Animal Crossing when they just got Villager the last game.
 

Pyra

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While I think Mickey's likeness being present in Sora's design as a Smash Bros. fighter is unlikely, I really can't say it's impossible. I'm not Sakurai; I don't get to decide what is or isn't possible.
Nobody does besides the people in suits working the game behind the scenes.


If anyone asked my personal thoughts on it, I'd probably just say the SE newcomer isn't from Kingdom Hearts at all. No reason, we have nothing to go off of. Just a guess. :warioc:
 
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Curious Villager

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It's not, no. But you'd think that if even the slightest peep gets out, how are they going to tell who is "leaking" and who isn't if thousands of people are saying Sora is in at once? Surely that'd be a red flag if that was what they were looking out for :4pacman:
That idea of yours reminds me of this one old Jimmy Neutron song, except replace "I have the Ring!" with "I have the Leak!"

Anyway, guess we'll probably have to wait and see in regards to the Square character...
 

Ridrool64

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I hope we get an Assist Trophy leak because there's somebody I'm waiting to see. Plus, it'd put a stop to all the discussion and debates.

I doubt all of them would be revealed before release, too.
 

Pyra

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That idea of yours reminds me of this one old Jimmy Neutron song, except replace "I have the Ring!" with "I have the Leak!"

Anyway, guess we'll probably have to wait and see in regards to the Square character...
I just felt a weird wave of nostalgia hit me because my brain immediately remembered the lyrics (...simple as they are) and melody as soon as I hit play. :yeahboi:

I hope we get an Assist Trophy leak because there's somebody I'm waiting to see. Plus, it'd put a stop to all the discussion and debates.
How are we gonna have a leak discussion thread without discussion
 

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Here's the brass tacks of it: in accordance to people suggesting that Sora would be a Square Enix rep, that's objectively false. On the title screen and box with all the Copyrights and Trademarks would be Disney. No, this would NOT be circumnavigated. It doesn't matter if the Mickey head is no longer on Sora's default keyblade. It doesn't matter if Disney's VP claims they don't have creative control. Disney owns Sora. At best, Square would act as a liason between Sora (the developer), Nintendo, and Disney, not have the final word. This also means that there would be another company on board that would be entitled to the slice of the pie. This all said, Sora could happen but the evidence points to a situation that's significantly more complicated and nuanced than what was being implied.
 
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Starbound

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I don't know if the game has gone gold yet, Nintendo doesn't typically announce that or not, but he could be planning DLC before the game is out.
When did Vergeben start talking about the Square character?

The game likely has gone gold by now given it's ESRB rating, so we do have a bit of a timeline.
 
D

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When did Vergeben start talking about the Square character?

The game likely has gone gold by now given it's ESRB rating, so we do have a bit of a timeline.
The ESRB rating has been around for a while, though, so I doubt it's been gold for that long. Games usually go gold about a month/month and a half before release, so I imagine it's probably getting pretty close now.
 

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Did I miss something for everyone being on the '' Incineroar is in '' train ?
For all I know, Ken is the only shoe-in char
 

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...I mean you need to consider that this is entirely subjective what we consider “Exciting” since in Japan Shulk was a HUGE reveal for them, he was literally one of their most requested characters by a long shot, and you also have to consider that there were characters revealed after release so I’d argue that it still does matter pleasing the fans, as Sakurai said, this game is aimed less are the casual demographic and more at the core demographic, so reveals still aimed at them even close to release make sense.

Also I’m really confused what you mean by “long-waiting” in terms of Animal Crossing when they just got Villager the last game.
I mean that there hasn't been a new actual AC game since New Leaf launched in 2012.

Again, though, I'm arguing this from a marketer's perspective, not a fanboy's perspective. It's counter-intuitive to save your biggest reveal for shortly before the game's actual release, because you don't get to use that character for any long-term promotional effort. There's a reason Ridley and K. Rool were announced before autumn, and I'm arguing that it's not that they have something even bigger they chose not to show yet. As for previous games' hidden characters, those were Wolf and Jigglypuff in Brawl, and Bowser Jr. and Duck Hunt in Smash 4. Again, hardly the noteworthy characters you want to advertise with.

And I know that Xenoblade is well liked. But there's no real putting Shulk's reveal on par with Mega Man, Pac-Man or Villager, all of whom were announced way beforehand. Xenoblade surpassed expectations, but those expectations weren't enormously high to begin with due to its niche. And it actually sold better in the west than Japan once it was finally localized. I'm not arguing no one wanted Shulk; I'm arguing he pales in comparison to goddamn Mega Man. This is an adequate comparison for Incineroar versus Ridley.

Anyway, we've been off-topic for too long.
 

BronzeGreekGod

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I really don’t like it when people say this kinda thing. Like how do you know? You ever met Sakurai?

I didn’t think people had to say this, but Olimar was the last reveal for Brawl, and Shulk was the last reveal for 4.

The final newcomer has NEVER been a big hype one.
good point. and this is something thats concerned me. I hope sakurai didnt just bust out all the big guns early on, creating all this crazy speculation to just tell us oh well thats pretty much it, but heres a couple of characters that no one cares about.
 

Dcas

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This is ENTIRELY subjective. I went bat**** for Shulk and Bowser Jr. "Hype" characters is can be whatever people make them out to be. We could get Banjo, Geno, and Isaac as final characters, or we could get Prince Sable and a group of people will be hyped about the character no matter what everyone thinks..
Sure is subjective, but if we go accordingly to this "no one liked BUT im a special snowflake that did get hyped due to x thing" then everything is hype. In fact it might be the case, but if we go to a general consensus the vast majority would agree that bjr and shulk were "meh" at best, nothing close to a HUGE or hype reveal.

You just can´t compare the impact of a let´s say "shulk" vs Sora, Sora alone would sell switches to people, on the other hand Shulk wouldn´t.
 
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I was wondering when someone'd take the bait

Just wanna go ahead and say that's never been a rule.
And if that's the only thing Riku has going against him, then I feel even better about it :wario:
If the Disney stuff genuinely mattered for some reason, and if every party involved felt better about it, they'll include a secondary character regardless of what people on a forum thinks made sense, no?

And if we were to go off that "lose their job thing", I'd hardly doubt it'd be Sora (or Geno for that matter). Dude already appears everywhere in thousands of rumors. If it was a big deal to have "Sora in Smash" everywhere I don't think that would have even been brought up.
Riku is pretty obviously a more absurd guess, but definitely not impossible.

This is only a thought experiment more or less trying to point out that there's no rule and the SE character could be anyone. There's nothing about what we already know that implicates anyone being the character.



Nothing happened. People are having a more or less superfluous conversation about whether or not Disney would bar Sora from being in because of one thing or another.
You know what's funny? I had started out the reply with "I know it's not an established rule", but I got busy, page was exited, then I came back, started writing the same thing, then accidentally exited, so by the 3rd time, I just went the quicker route and shortened by post. It had been a lot longer lol.

Yeah, I know it's not a rule, but its something that, whether you're willing to admit or not, is true more often than not. It may not be a 0% chance that Riku make it into something before Sora, but it sure as hell isn't that high.

And that's what a lot of you guys operate on. Nothing is 100%. And I get that, it is true. Heck, even when directly stated, some people refuse to drop the percentage down to 0. But just because something isn't directly stated, doesn't make an obvious conclusion any less obvious. If you're willing to cling to a 3% chance of something occurring, then you have to be willing to accept that 97% chance outcome as well. Some people seem to forget that and then whine when the obvious answer becomes reality.

Sorry if this sounds like I'm railing on you; really not; just taking the opportunity to throw it out there since you responded claiming your original post as 'bait' and people really do like to cling to those low percentages then go "What?!" when it doesn't happen.
 
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I still subscribe to my crockpot theory that Echo Fighters, despite the branding and push, were still late additions into the game just like clones have always been. Ken being the only exception.

Why would Ken be worked on before the others? Because, perhaps, he will have a small number of differences from Ryu which would necessitate more work than normal. However, because his kit would still be so heavily Ryu, you could still label him an echo and be just fine. Maybe after this Sakurai and the dev team just decide to roll with the punches and add a bunch of clones like Chrom, Dark Samus and Daisy.

Or maybe Sakurai had planned on adding Ken all this time and decided on echo fighters as a concept only after him?

None of the echoes outside of Ken and Daisy have really leaked which I find it curious, and in Daisy's case it can be inferred that she was leaked because people had outside access to the E3 Direct, as I believe she and the contents of that Direct were in a 4chan post a day or two beforehand? Clones have, historically speaking, been very late additions which is why none of the ones in 4 were in any leaks beyond ESRB.
Ninka Kiwi leaked the entire remaining Smash 4 roster, including Dr. Mario and Dark Pit, over a month before the ESRB leak, and his source could have leaked it at least pre-E3 2014 if they shared the details sooner. Additionally Sonic was a late inclusion in Brawl and he still got leaked. Being a later included character doesn't prevent them from leaking, Gematsu was the exception because it was early information (and even then Gematsu also missed Robin, Duck Hunt, Bowser Jr, and possibly Rosalina, so it wasn't complete information regardless).

He doesn't know the final number anyway, so while yes, the Square-Enix rep may be a DLC character, he explicity said he got this name from a single source (who's never had a habit of being wrong) so he cannot confirm it. And since Square-Enix is pretty rough on leaks, he probably won't get any new source soon.
Correction on that, the existence of the SE character came from his main Smash source, the name of the SE character came from a "random guy" he does not know the legitimacy of.

I decided to watch an old Bill Trinen interview because people were saying it said that we may not be getting DLC...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thehPvqow1I

Some interesting points.
Bill basically almost straight up says we're getting a Testfire like event, or very strongly implies it. (3:36)
He talked about getting the game DONE before thinking about DLC not RELEASED. (7:36)

I don't know if the game has gone gold yet, Nintendo doesn't typically announce that or not, but he could be planning DLC before the game is out.
You really can't listen to such DLC statements from a PR person pre-release, developers/PR person usually won't admit to planning DLC before the game releases due to the stigma against DLC and cries of "they were holding back content to sell!", while some DLC is usually started before the game is done. This exactly happened in Smash 4, where Sakurai first said "DLC wasn't in the cards" when asked early in Smash 4's development, and then later said "we'll consider DLC only after the game releases", however the timeline of the DLC characters shows that is unfeasible; besides Mewtwo being revealed with a complete model before the Wii U version released and a month after the 3DS version's Japanese release, Sakurai has claimed that a new Smash character takes over a year to make, while Ryu released within 9 months of 3DS' Japanese release, making it improbable that Lucas/Roy/Ryu began development after it was done.
 
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Nekoo

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the name came from a "random guy" he does not know the legitimacy of.
Well, now we can even push further to say that we know he have a list of SE-characters names that are around, but since they're all Fake Trap, he don't want to give the list and ruin people's job.

Anyway, I believe WE NEED to have a first post update with everything so far.

People asking for stuff and spreading misinformation is a pain
 

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Yeah, I know it's not a rule, but its something that, whether you're willing to admit or not, is true more often than not.
Of course I'm willing to admit it. In fact, I was literally mentioning it because it's unlikely. I don't disagree with the fact it probably won't happen.

But just because something isn't directly stated, doesn't make an obvious conclusion any less obvious.
I don't think obvious is the best word to use here.
Think "likely" works out better. Incineroar is "likely" due to the notoriety boost he has from Verg's reputation and his relative use in the anime, but I don't think he's super obvious to a lot of people that aren't knee deep in the discussions we put ourselves in. Before Verg brought him up, sure a few people wanted him, but a bunch of people expected Decidueye, Mimikyu... even Nihilego. Lol. The fact of the matter is that we can't really say anything is obvious without some kind of concrete observation. We only have inferences based on... a leaker.

At least that's how I see it. I'm kinda poking at semantics here and it's really irrelevant though, sorry. Haha.

If you're willing to cling to a 3% chance of something occurring, then you have to be willing to accept that 97% chance outcome as well.
That's why it's fun.

Some people seem to forget that and then whine when the obvious answer becomes reality.
That's because think the wrong thing is likely, probably.
If you're gonna play against the probability like I like to do, at least be honest about it.

Sorry if this sounds like I'm railing on you; really not; just taking the opportunity to throw it out there since you responded claiming your original post as 'bait'
You're good, my dude. It was intentionally a controversial post to open up conversation on an unlikely possibility. Most of the time if you bring something up that has a non-zero chance but otherwise isn't likely to happen, people tend to become overly emotional and bring up stupid arguments like "BUHHHH SHREK!!!". Figure this way, it would give people no real room to do that and yet still converse over an unlikely character.

people really do like to cling to those low percentages then go "What?!" when it doesn't happen.
People do. Just know I am not one of them. It is virtually impossible to disappoint me at this point, which is why I brazenly decided to guess unlikely things. If I'm wrong, then I lose nothing and some people extra up in their ass about me saying things win the ability to rub it in my face- fair enough. If i'm right, then it kinda just proves the point that these are all only inferences we're making based on patterns and trying to extrapolate on behaviors of companies that we can't possibly truly know the intention of. If Sakurai wants to put Riku in instead of Sora, he probably will. Would he be as popular as Sora? Probably not. Would it generate more clickbaity "Sora didn't get in but...." media attention? Yeah. I'd say so.

The fact of the matter is that we don't really know anything one way or another.
I am more than happy with Sora potentially being in the game, mind you. Haha

tl;dr: follow your dreams kiddos
 
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Just got home, what'd I miss


oh why the HELL ARE WE DISCUSSING INCINEROAR/KEN = ONLY BASE ROSTERS LEFT AGAIN AAAA
Plausible and Likely Scenario
And Vergeben gave more info about the Square-Enix characters and how ****ing secretive Square Enix are by giving fake names (or maybe even the true one) to it's employee. And Nintendo playing along by keeping it secret.
 

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Just got home, what'd I miss


oh why the HELL ARE WE DISCUSSING INCINEROAR/KEN = ONLY BASE ROSTERS LEFT AGAIN AAAA
Calm yourself, Mr. President.
It makes sense, because nothing in particular leak-wise has happened to say otherwise yet so it's still the most relevant thing anyone has to talk about that isn't blatantly fake.

Coming from someone who actively ignores the box theory.

If you want something else to talk about you can just suggest something.
 
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Luigi The President

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Calm yourself, Mr. President.
It makes sense, because nothing in particular leak-wise has happened to say otherwise yet so it's still the most relevant thing anyone has to talk about that isn't blatantly fake.

Coming from someone who actively ignores the box theory.

If you want something else to talk about you can just suggest something.
Makes sense, thanks.
 

Pyra

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I honestly highly doubt that the final two reveals would be a Pokémon and an Echo Fighter lol.

That just doesn’t seem like something Sakurai would go for.
I would normally say "I don't think that actually has any bearing on what'll happen" but honestly it doesn't even matter because I'm positive that the last character revealed will probably be the first DLC character anyway.
 

Fatmanonice

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You really can't listen to such DLC statements from a PR person pre-release, developers/PR person usually won't admit to planning DLC before the game releases due to the stigma against DLC and cries of "they were holding back content to sell!", while some DLC is usually started before the game is done. This exactly happened in Smash 4, where Sakurai first said "DLC wasn't in the cards" when asked early in Smash 4's development, and then later said "we'll consider DLC only after the game releases", however the timeline of the DLC characters shows that is unfeasible; besides Mewtwo being revealed with a complete model before the Wii U version released and a month after the 3DS version's Japanese release, Sakurai has claimed that a new Smash character takes over a year to make, while Ryu released within 9 months of 3DS' Japanese release, making it improbable that Lucas/Roy/Ryu began development after it was done.
We know Lucas and Roy had assets from Brawl to use while I get a feeling that Ryu was an idea that they toyed with for the initial release but probably ran out of time or prioritized other characters (which by all accounts sounds like Bowser Jr/the Koopalings was a "kids in the backseat screaming for McDonald's" kind of scenario) especially given that Capcom was already on board from the beginning. I could see Ryu being one of those characters that was borderline ready to go before being put on the cutting room floor in a conspicuous place to be picked up later.
 
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