Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[Jchrono95]

I think one of the the big things that makes a steve/minecon announcement more possible than another third party being announced outside a Nintendo controlled event is the fact that Nintendo working with Microsoft on its own is a different kind of beast than a standard third party inclusion

 

[Fenriraga]

I honestly just can't see Nintendo announcing anything Smash related during anything other than their own presentations or streams.

That's just not really their style.

 

[Potato_]

The biggest thing about "Announcing it at Minecon" is that you basically soft confirm what's going to be IN the Direct, being Minecraft content.


Like, there'd be no reason to announce it there of all places otherwise unless something big Minecraft related was going to be in the Direct, PROBABLY Steve? if it'd be special enough to get announced then and there.

The only way I see this happening is if they actually give some time to Nintendo to be like "Hey here's some Minecraft content in Smash! If you're interested in seeing more about this game you can see our next presentation on insert date here" As in, they would show all the Minecraft content there.

It's very iffy, but I will admit it would be a good way to get a lot of casual videogame fans paying attention to Smash.

 

[Shroob]

depends on what they think at Minecon; they already ignore most of the older kids and even older fans by talking like everyone watching is under 7-10 idk.

but I don't see why little kids couldn't make that connection...

I mean:


If they announce a Smash Direct at Minecon at all places, that more or less confirms Steve? being in.


Like, it's one thing for it to be announced on Sakurai's twitter or at EVO, Minecon paints a very clear picture.

 

[LetterO]

I can see Nintendo announcing a solo fighter trailer around the time Minecon goes around, but it's not directly anything to do with it.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Y'know, however, Microsoft kinda let's Mojang do their own thing, so they would probably be easier to work with than Microsoft as a whole.

I mean:


If they announce a Smash Direct at Minecon at all places, that more or less confirms Steve? being in.


Like, it's one thing for it to be announced on Sakurai's twitter or at EVO, Minecon paints a very clear picture.

I'm thinkin' they could probably do it to make all the younger kids happy, giving them a "hint" as to what's going on, hyping them up and attracting them to Smash, but idk.

 

[Shroob]

Y'know, however, Microsoft kinda let's Mojang do their own thing, so they would probably be easier to work with than Microsoft as a whole.



I'm thinkin' they could probably do it to make all the younger kids happy, giving them a "hint" as to what's going on, hyping them up and attracting them to Smash, but idk.

But that's the thing.

It's giving away the contents before we even know what the Direct will be like.

 

[TheCJBrine]

But that's the thing.

It's giving away the contents before we even know what the Direct will be like.

idk then.

The only other thing I can see happening is what LetterO said, which would still leave us to speculate even if it seems obvious we're gonna get Minecraft.

 

[PolarPanda]

I have to say, I am very impressed with your work. It's great to see someone apply such advanced levels of observation and calculation to something that has a clear pattern with less clear implications that people may miss! Through much less scientific means I predicted that we'd get 7-8 unique new fighters in this game right after E3 (including Inkling and Ridley) and I'm still standing by that prediction, along with a prediction of three more echo fighters, making for a total of 5-6 more characters being in the base game. I saw on one of your Reddit threads that you agreed with someone who said they expected six more characters, saying that it was a logical number that fit within your calculations. What I'm wondering is what would be the probability that we see 5-6 more new characters, no more, no less, posted to the blog in addition to the remaining veterans by approximately when the game launches?

Gamexplain's Ash was just like you. We did an interview today and it's going up in a couple days, but he told me he also calculated about the same results way back like a month ago, and was planning to make a video of it, then he saw our complex studying and wanted an interview. So you're kinda in the same boat that he is. Well, hope you're looking forward to the video, I'm going to assume more people like you also got the feeling of something like this

 

[TyrantLizardKing]

People always suspect this and yet it never comes to fruition. I'm just seeing the same things being repeated here.

 

[Shroob]

Gamexplain's Ash was just like you. We did an interview today and it's going up in a couple days, but he told me he also calculated about the same results way back like a month ago, and was planning to make a video of it, then he saw our complex studying and wanted an interview. So you're kinda in the same boat that he is. Well, hope you're looking forward to the video, I'm going to assume more people like you also got the feeling of something like this

I mean, I thought the same thing way back when the blog started doing 3 a week, but the general consensus I was told was that "It would change".


I find it funny how now that Box Theory is the big boogeyman that everyone's afraid of that people are singing a different tune.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

If Steve gets in and he has his question mark.

I really hope Xander sounds confused every single time he says Steve's name.

 

[Enchess]

I mean, I thought the same thing way back when the blog started doing 3 a week, but the general consensus I was told was that "It would change".


I find it funny how now that Box Theory is the big boogeyman that everyone's afraid of that people are singing a different tune.

I don't understand how people honestly think the blog theory has more evidence than the box theory. It's so weird to me.

I mean, I'm pretty sure the blog theory popped up all the way back in July and was immediately bashed as reaching. It's no stronger now than it was then.

I don't think it's a bad theory either. It makes sense. The pattern is regular and logical, just like the box theory. And it's good marketing strategy to keep the blog updates going in that fashion, just like the music theory.

It's strange this one gains traction and the others are treated like crazy talk...

 

[LetterO]

If Steve gets in and he has his question mark.

I really hope Xander sounds confused every single time he says Steve's name.

Now that the victory screens have him just say the character's name, it's going to sound like Xander is just confused that Steve won.

 

[Shroob]

I don't understand how people honestly think the blog theory has more evidence than the box theory. It's so weird to me.

I mean, I'm pretty sure the blog theory popped up all the way back in July and was immediately bashed as reaching. It's no stronger now than it was then.

I don't think it's a bad theory either. It makes sense. The pattern is regular and logical, just like the box theory. And it's good marketing strategy to keep the blog updates going in that fashion, just like the music theory.

It's strange this one gains traction and the others are treated like crazy talk...

One is viewed as being a pessimist.
One is viewed as being an optimist.


People don't like to accept that sometimes, the worst case scenario may end up coming true.

 

[jokermelee]

https://twitter.com/Marc_IRL/status/1044151546110447616
this tweet from a Minecraft Dev also seems to suggest that there's one specific thing they at Mojang can't talk about before Minecon

could be playstation crossplay, but i don't see that being the huge reveal after everything we've been leaked lines up with that not being the case.

 

[Enchess]

One is viewed as being a pessimist.
One is viewed as being an optimist.


People don't like to accept that sometimes, the worst case scenario may end up coming true.

Pessimist me: We're getting Incineroar and Ken and that's it.
Optimist me: We're getting Isaac, Saki, Mio, Ken, Primarina, and Dixie

Me trying to balance outlook: Isaac and Ken are all we're getting.

The funny thing is I think my trying to balance optimism and pessimism might be considered the least realistic view of the three (cuz no Pokemon)

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I mean, I thought the same thing way back when the blog started doing 3 a week, but the general consensus I was told was that "It would change".


I find it funny how now that Box Theory is the big boogeyman that everyone's afraid of that people are singing a different tune.

This. People are far more willing to accept leaks or theories that support more characters in the game, simply because that’s what they want. It’s flawed and no one will admit that that’s why they accept the Blog theory (which is based on circumstantial evidence) over the Box or Music theory. Hypocrisy at it's finest if you ask me.

The idea that we're getting 6 more fighters is practically a pipe dream.

You can't say it for certainty, but given the blog's .JSON and the fallout after the delay to keep things on perfect schedule through chaotic rescheduling of the post numbers (in the Rendered: field of the .JSON), it's indicated and estimated that scenario of calculation D is less than 10% probability.


Blog slowing down is completely unlikely. It's pure pessimism. to cling to something less likely.

Would you rather put faith in the 90% likely scenario that is actually beneficial, or the incredibly unlikely worst timeline?

I'd rather put faith in the "worst" timeline because then I won't be disappointed when it comes true.

Just don't throw a temper tantrum when Blog Theory proves to be incorrect and we only get two more characters, because we'll have enough people doing that already.

 

[PLATINUM7]

https://twitter.com/Marc_IRL/status/1044151546110447616
this tweet from a Minecraft Dev also seems to suggest that there's one specific thing they at Mojang can't talk about before Minecon

could be playstation crossplay, but i don't see that being the huge reveal after everything we've been leaked lines up with that not being the case.

Could be sarcasm.

 

[Enchess]

Could be sarcasm.

Or literally any announcement. It's a con. I don't follow it, so I can't say for certain, but I bet they'll announce at least 1 thing with or without Smash.

Most devs like to keep announcements surprises and also like to tease fans. I'm sure we'd see comments like this on Twitter if all they were announcing a Minecraft show, Minecraft RPG, or even just a new official Minecraft texture mod.

No reason for anyone to assume it's Smash regardless of if it's a tease.

 

[Noipoi]

I predict we're not gonna get anything for the first week or two of October.
After that we'll either get a Robin/Lucina style random trailer, or an announcement for a Direct the next week.
Will it be the final Smash direct divulging info on the last few characters and the mysterious blurred out green mode???

I dunno.

I think currently it's a toss-up between October and November for the fabled final Smash direct. I'm leaning towards early November but mid October wouldn't surprise me at all.

Also Steve won't be announced at Minecon. It's not happening, Nintendo doesn't roll that way.

 

[Shroob]

I predict we're not gonna get anything for the first week or two of October.
After that we'll either get a Robin/Lucina style random trailer, or an announcement for a Direct the next week.
Will it be the final Smash direct divulging info on the last few characters and the mysterious blurred out green mode???

I dunno.

I think currently it's a toss-up between October and November for the fabled final Smash direct. I'm leaning towards early November but mid October wouldn't surprise me at all.

Also Steve won't be announced at Minecon. It's not happening, Nintendo doesn't roll that way.

Honestly, the later the October Direct comes, the less likely a Direct in November feels, to me at least.


Like, we'd have a Smash Direct on say, the 16th/17th and then another in mid November?

 

[Potato_]

The idea that we're getting 6 more fighters is practically a pipe dream.

Just don't throw a temper tantrum when Blog Theory proves to be incorrect and we only get two more characters, because we'll have enough people doing that already.

I agree with everything else you posted besides these two points.

We can't know for sure how much is left beyond Sakurai's "there's a few more left" which is incredibly vague.

And in your last sentence you're basically saying (or at least acting like) Box Theory is confirmed. If you read his other posts you'd see that his theory also has good evidence to support it like Box Theory, and that he's done a lot of work to show such.

I agree that it's better to expect the worst, but just because your theory expects less than another does not make it more valid.

To say with such certainty that Blog theory will be incorrect, almost like it's a fact, isn't fair to him, especially when he's done so much work to show you why it's at least a possibility.

Both theories are viable, why can't we just leave it at that? Keep your expectations low but your mind open to possibilities.

 

[PLATINUM7]

Or literally any announcement. It's a con. I don't follow it, so I can't say for certain, but I bet they'll announce at least 1 thing with or without Smash.

Most devs like to keep announcements surprises and also like to tease fans. I'm sure we'd see comments like this on Twitter if all they were announcing a Minecraft show, Minecraft RPG, or even just a new official Minecraft texture mod.

No reason for anyone to assume it's Smash regardless of if it's a tease.

That's what I meant. It could just be a very insincere way of saying there'll be new stuff. Ideally, reveals aren't talked about before they're... revealed. Hence the excitement for stuff they can't talk about yet.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I agree with everything else you posted besides these two points.

We can't know for sure how much is left beyond Sakurai's "there's a few more left" which is incredibly vague.

And in your last sentence you're basically saying (or at least acting like) Box Theory is confirmed. If you read his other posts you'd see that his theory also has good evidence to support it like Box Theory, and that he's done a lot of work to show such.

I agree that it's better to expect the worst, but just because your theory expects less than another does not make it more valid.

To say with such certainty that Blog theory will be incorrect, almost like it's a fact, isn't fair to him, especially when he's done so much work to show you why it's at least a possibility.

Both theories are viable, why can't we just leave it at that? Keep your expectations low but your mind open to possibilities.

That's a good point. Box theory is definitely not concerned, and Blog theory has some evidence, though I feel like JSONs are circumstantial at best, and Smash fans are doing what they do best in taking something small and running absolutely wild with it.

But I stand by my last point though. Here are some facts:

• People will believe Blog theory because it says we'll get more characters
• We likely won't get as many characters as they hope
• The community will face a massive ****storm because it always happens
  • The ****storm will be WORSE this time because the announcement of characters like Simon, K. Rool, and Ridley have convinced fans that anyone is possible, and they have gotten their hopes up higher than any previous speculation cycle (minus maybe Brawl)

Blog theory is dangerous because it gets peoples hopes up. I previously talked about the danger of hopes in and disregarding box theory this post, which I've quoted below:

From the standpoint of someone who was a part of Sm4sh speculation, it's scary to see people get their hopes up like this. People vehemently denying Box Theory or discrediting Vergeben solely because they want more, or they want something different. I experienced similar things occur during Sm4sh speculation. When Gematsu became big people doubted it because it didn't have Ridley or K. Rool or Dixie. Fake leaks like Tower of Smash got attention solely because they contained popular characters and entertained the idea of characters being unlocked if you communicated between the two versions, which allowed fans to continue "speculation" (or keep their hopes alive instead of accepting reality). I also refuse to let people forget that the fanbase took "RIDLEY IS IN THE CLOUDS" seriously, because that's absolutely ridiculous.

Guess what happened when the ESRB leak came out and the Shulk trailer confirmed it a week after?

Chaos. I often go to the example of a user cursing out the entire leaks group, and most of us remember how hated Dark Pit was at the time, as many saw him stealing a roster spot from their character (if there's one thing to be happy about, it's that this argument is all but dead this speculation cycle). Fans of the Duck Hunt Dog remember the ire drawn towards their character because he was the last to be officially revealed, and he wasn't a popular character. Now that we have hindsight, we can realize that Dark Pit was an easy clone to make, and that the Duck Hunt Dog is an iconic Nintendo character, but at the time all that some fans could see is red, and those fans were very loud and caused a lot of chaos in the community.

Expectations are a very dangerous thing. It's why I've made an active effort to address people whenever they say "I expect x" or "y is a shoe-in," because no character is a lock for this game until they are confirmed. Its the same with any theory or leak. The only reason I back box theory is due to the evidence provided, and the fact that any argument against it is as flimsy as cardboard. Of course, box theory itself is based on hypotheticals, but the way that they all come together perfectly makes me inclined to not call it coincidence. When I see people try to dispute it with "Incineroar and Ken can't be our next reveal" or "Sakurai always trolls his fans, there's sure to be more" or making other straw grasps to disprove it I see this speculation scene going down that same route that Sm4sh speculation did, and I don't want that. Especially because this speculation cycle has gotten a lot of people's hopes up for their favorite character, and I can all-too-clearly see those hopes crashing down when the full roster leaks, leading to something worse than the post-ESRB fallout for Sm4sh.

Mind you, it's okay if you don't want to believe box theory. If you want more characters, power to you. I also agree that those who are trying to temper expectations for the sake of the fandom shouldn't be so quick to jump at others. However, if you're going to try to disprove box theory, or argue that we're going to get more characters, you should have an actual argument. I mean examples, excerpts from Sakurai's interviews, parallels with previous speculation cycles (which shouldn't be used as concrete proof like they have been because this is a different speculation cycle, it's a precedent, and doesn't mean much), references to previous game's files, Nintendo's inner workings or current direction, etc. Not just "Sakurai always does this" or "x character isn't in this so I'm not going to believe it." Those are opinions. Not arguments. There's a difference.

Also, if you're going to swing at box theory, I expect an argument comparable to the one laid out for it, which I still have yet to see. All I've seen so far is a disconnected set of hypotheticals varying in quality, none of which compare to the connected evidence for box theory. I also dislike the vindictiveness of those who oppose box theory. I've seen people here, on this website, get hate thrown at them solely for playing Devil's Advocate. Not even supporting box theory, but just saying why it may be true, and getting hate and incredulity thrown at them because of that. This is speculation for a video game on the internet, not a violent political argument or epic battle for truth where one side needs to obliterate the other.

Like, can we just agree to disagree and drop the topic? If you don't believe box theory, fine, but just don't get your hopes up for 5-7 more characters. If you believe box theory, great, I say always plan for the worst and hope for the best, so whatever happens'll just happen.

Seriously believing Blog theory, which a lot of people do (take a look at Reddit, where they also downvote Box theory posts into oblivion), is playing with fire. Be careful not to get burned.

 

[Enchess]

My problem with the blog theory is something box theory doesn't have:
Some event may cause character updates on the blog to stop suddenly (I haven't checked timing, but perhaps the bundle release date). This would allow the pattern to be unbroken without actually giving near that predicted number. It can be a real intentional pattern that holds up perfectly without giving more characters.

Heck, maybe we get to the last couple characters left and it's used as an excuse for an announcement. "Observant fans may have noticed we're almost out of characters for the blog. Well, we still have one more surprise after the last of the revealed characters is shown!" Something to that effect. Then they would just shift focus to blog updates on modes, stages, etc.

The box theory is different though. The boxart must change beyond simply filling in the three blank spots for the character count to be greater than 1 more unique. For it to be wrong comes with implications that are sorta weird. Like the artist threw in a spot for Ken despite trying not to show spoilers. That or they shifted over a row to fill in 1 empty space, but still left 2 ugly empty spaces. It's just...weird. Not impossible, weird. The implications of breaking blog pattern are far less strange to me.

I see a world where blog, music, and box patterns are all very intentional decisions. This world is 1 unique + Ken is all we get, music pattern stays true, and some event or announcement causes blog character posts to end abruptly.

 

[Starbound]

Box theory exists as the worst case scenario and a lower limit for speculation, being 2 more characters.

Blog theory, to me, is the upper limit for speculation, being 6 or 7 more characters (if I'm understanding the math right).

My own thought is having 4 left, being Ken, Incineroar, Steve and Lara/Sora as the remainder. I'm very confident in the first two, about 50/50 on the other two and can't think of who else I'd expect to be another 2 or 3 if we really get that big. They would probably be echoes because I'm honestly not sure how to fit in this many reveals by the end of November.

 

[Shroob]

Hope's a great thing to have.

But it can also be a double edged sword.



I think most people are simply trying to say two words:


"Hype responsibly"

 

[Enchess]

Hope's a great thing to have.

But it can also be a double edged sword.



I think most people are simply trying to say two words:


"Hype responsibly"

I love how we compare hype to drinking for some reason. Makes me think of that most interesting man in the world commercial.
"I don't always hype, but when I do, I hype Isaac"

 

[PK-remling Fire]

People honestly just need to keep their expectations tempered. Sakurai and the smash dev team have put a ton of work into this game and have already done wonders, so it's kind of disheartening to see people putting such unrealistic expectations on top of everything the team has already done and setting themselves up for disappointment.

 

[kylexv]

Remember back in the Brawl days when there was totally more than 35 characters in the roster?
Remember back in the Smash 4 days when there was totally more characters that weren't unlocked in the ESRB leak?

Daily reminder to stay hyped, but hype responsibly.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

People honestly just need to keep their expectations tempered. Sakurai and the smash dev team have put a ton of work into this game and have already done wonders, so it's kind of disheartening to see people putting such unrealistic expectations on top of everything the team has already done and setting themselves up for disappointment.

Already grateful I got K. Rool and Ridley. Couldn't ask for anything else. Any of my other wants would simply just be icing on cake and if they don't make it so be it. Sakurai still did a splendid job in delivering the "ultimate" game for all of us.

 

[Hydrualic Hydra]

I mean me personally? Blog theory doesn't quite feel certain to me. We've already seen the number of fighters shown in a week fluctuate, it doesn't hold nearly enough ground for me to consider it a viable reason to expect more.

Music theory, if you actually read it and understand it, has no holes and has stood firm thus far. It's the only one I really believe, and it doesn't restrict the roster to the way I see it going. Me and Michael the Spikester have eerily similar ideas on the remaining characters and I was surprised Music Theory didn't shut it down.

I never fully latched onto box theory, but I tempered my expectations to be willing to accept it, and hell, I'm still willing to accept it. I've said it half a million times before and I'll say it again, the game is as close to perfect as Smash may be capable of reaching, folks need to keep their jimmies unrustled if we do end up only getting 2 more characters.

I'm only thinking there's 5-7 characters left on a raw gut feeling. I doubt that if people can know so much about a Square Enix rep and possibly Steve that they're too far into development to be DLC and are just being kept especially well under wraps. And honestly, no matter what theory comes around, I'll defend to my dying breath that Shadow is in this game. I'm not even that much of a Sonic fan (only Sonic game I genuinely love is SA2B), but for Shadow's AT to be missing, and seemingly replaced, and for Castlevania and Street Fighter to get Echoes, but not the arguably most important 3rd party on the roster when there's a perfect choice right there, just feels way too suspect to me.

Everyone's free to believe what they want as long as they keep their expectations in check and accept the final product for what it is when that last character gets revealed.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Me and Michael the Spikester have eerily similar ideas on the remaining characters

As they would say. Great minds do think alike.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

So with Ken, how do y’all think they’ll handle his official reveal? He maybe an echo character, but he’s still a new guest character so I expect them to give him a more ceremonious reveal than what Daisy, Dark Samus, and Chrom got. I don’t think it’s likely that he would share a reveal with someone else, but I also don’t think they would create a full on CGI trailer for just Ken. I believe that Ken will get a reveal trailer along the lines of what we got for Smash 4 DLC characters.

Not sure where and when would it be best to announce him. Sakurai could just make an announcement like Robin/Lucina had, or he could be apart of a final smash direct.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

I would reject box theory even if it had ten more slots for characters, because the notion that Nintendo would mock up a render of the box that reveals the exact size of the roster, and then publicly release it through a retailer, is a little too much for me to believe. When things started up, I thought there would only be like 7-10 newcomers total, but that’s clearly not the case anymore, and I think the rest of the pre-release cycle will reflect how it’s gone so far.

That also means that any leak roster with more than around 7 more newcomers, or if it has more than like 5 unique newcomers, I’m probably going to reject it as well. There’s just not enough time.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

So with Ken, how do y’all think they’ll handle his official reveal? He maybe an echo character, but he’s still a new guest character so I expect them to give him a more ceremonious reveal than what Daisy, Dark Samus, and Chrom got. I don’t think it’s likely that he would share a reveal with someone else, but I also don’t think they would create a full on CGI trailer for just Ken. I believe that Ken will get a reveal trailer along the lines of what we got for Smash 4 DLC characters.

Not sure where and when would it be best to announce him. Sakurai could just make an announcement like Robin/Lucina had, or he could be apart of a final smash direct.

I say the Robin/Lucina reveal would be perfect honestly. He should also be paired with Incineroar since both are involved around fighting. To make it more thematic they could have their reveals on the Boxing Ring stage with Little Mac being the next victim.

 

[Shroob]

I still stand by InKeniroar being the perfect reveal trailer for both.


Hell, call it something corny like Pokemon Masters or Pok-Ken.

 

[Jchrono95]

Only thing I really want is something I don't expect to happen. Outside Crono I personally would be completely happy with the roster is now. Expecting nothing keeps the weight off you

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I still stand by InKeniroar being the perfect reveal trailer for both.


Hell, call it something corny like Pokemon Masters or Pok-Ken.

Great thing about it too is Ken would probably make a great trainer for Incineroar as would for . Perfect chemistry and team-ups I really want to see in Spirits if there is a story alongside with and for the mother-son like relationship/bond they could both have.