Newcomers: Captain Toad, Dixie Kong, Funky Kong (clone), Sheriff/Mr. Jack, Takamaru, Sylux, Bandana Dee, Decidueye, Isabelle, Alph (clone), Elma, Inkling, Bomberman, Rayman, Steve (13 plus 2 clones)
Returning: Ice Climbers, Wolf (2)
Captain Toad: A fairly popular and extremely recognizable character who has appeared in all of the last three mainline Mario games. Not only that, he's the star of his own game now, which is set to appear on not one, but three Nintendo consoles. He is the newcomer I'm most confident in predicting. (Certainty High)
Dixie Kong: A popular character from a popular franchise that everyone seems to want a newcomer for. Given Tropical Freeze's re-release on the Switch, I think it's fair to say that I expect her. (Certainty High)
Funky Kong: Hear me out. Every game has had clones, and I don't expect that to change with Smash Switch. Given Funky Kong's newest appearance as one of Tropical Freeze's five playable characters, he might just be in the perfect scenario to be considered for the last-minute clone treatment. I could see him being a less grab-oriented DK with better aerial movement and silly Luigi-esque hitboxes. (Certainty Low)
Sheriff: Each game since Melee has included one throwback "retro" character (Ice Climbers, Pit, Little Mac) and one character that highlights something about Nintendo's history (Mr. Game and Watch, R.O.B., Duck Hunt). If this pattern continues, Sheriff is a perfectly reasonable option, being Nintendo's first original video game character (and the first of Miyamoto's characters), and an ideal representative for Nintendo's arcade and toy history. If he were to make it in, I imagine he would look more like the
cabinet artwork. As a character, I imagine him being an amalgam of Old Western tropes, representing the genre as a whole, alongside references to Nintendo's light gun toys and games (
Kôsenjû), like the
Jumping Bottle, the
Custom Gunman and Custom Lion,
Electro Poker, and Electro Roulette. While I'm relatively certain that we're getting a historical character, I have no idea if Sheriff will be the one chosen or if they'll go with something else, like Daitoryo, who I've rallied for in the past. (Certainty Low)
Takamaru: Ever since his appearance as an assist trophy, we've been keeping an eye on Takamaru for this next game. Given that his game was released overseas (finally), and given that Hideki Kamiya has acknowledged that he would be interested in working with the Murasame Castle franchise, I could see Sakurai picking him. That said, he's not the only contender for a retro spot, and we're not guaranteed a retro in the first place. (Certainty Moderate)
Sylux: The Metroid series is seeing a significant amount of attention, and Sylux is the villain candidate who seems most probable given Sakurai's stance on Ridley. I fully expect Sylux to play a significant role in Metroid Prime 4, and it seems to be the perfect chance for the character. That said, he hasn't had a huge role yet, and it could be a bit too early for him. Further, a Metroid character, while a popular choice, is not a guarantee, and there's always the possibility of Sakurai coming back to Ridley again. (Certainty Moderate)
Bandana Dee: The Kirby series has done very well recently, and Bandana Dee has been very consistently appeared as the fourth playable character or in support roles. And remember, the Kirby series has had a main series release every year since 2014. He has very little going against him. If he's not in, it's because the Kirby series isn't getting a newcomer for some reason. (Certainty High)
Decidueye: Admittedly something of a placeholder, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this very popular starter in the next Smash. A flying grass-type archer, it has plenty of moveset potential, and it's been the poster boy of this gen. That said, it has a lot of competition from within its own series, and it could be passed over in favor of a newer Pokemon. (Certainty Moderate)
Isabelle: A very, very popular character from a well-selling franchise...however, I'm not sure if Sakurai considers her a proper fighter. I could see her being another clone, a semi-clone, or an entirely unique character. Regardless, I think a new Animal Crossing character makes a lot of sense, even if it's a choice I'm less confident in. (Certainty Moderately Low)
Alph: An off-the-wall pick from me, but I could very easily see Sakurai revisiting the idea of making Alph a clone who uses shield-breaking Rock Pikmin. And, again, clones don't take much development time, and I expect us to have a couple. (Certainty Low)
Elma: A unique, popular character from one of Nintendo's newest series, I could definitely see Elma making it into the next Smash Bros. Her game is likely to receive both a sequel and a port in due time (XCX ended on a cliffhanger), and her game was one of the best received on the Wii U. That said, she faces the distinct possibility of being shafted in favor of Rex instead of being added alongside him. However, I'm leaning towards both of them being included, especially since Elma arguably represents an entirely different series from Shulk and Rex. (Certainty Moderate)
Inkling: Duh.
*Bomberman: Definitely the third party I'm least certain of on my prediction roster, but he's still undeniably iconic, popular, and requested. Given that he had a launch title on the Switch, I can see him happening. (Certainty Low)
*Rayman: While I'm not certain on him by any means, I think it goes without saying that Ubisoft has been very close to Nintendo. He's probably the most likely new third party, if you ask me. (Certainty Moderately Low)
*Steve: I've stated my case for him before; he's iconic, his game is the second best selling of all time, he's had a release on the past three Nintendo consoles, and Nintendo is willing enough to talk with Microsoft historically to let the Super Mario Mash-Up Pack happen. I think he's a slept on third-party, and I don't think I'm crazy to predict him. That being said, the character has a notable hate-base, and Minecraft isn't quite the titan it used to be. (Certainty Moderately Low)
*I'm hesitant to say who the next third party characters will be, and I expect to be wrong. My guess on how many we'll see is three, but I could be wrong on that as well.
Ice Climbers: I mean, the only reason they weren't in Sm4sh to begin with was the 3DS. (Certainty: Highest)
Wolf: Very popular, a veteran, and easy to bring back. (Certainty: High)
DLC:
Spring Man: I know, I know, let me explain why I have him as DLC. There was no way for Sakurai to know ahead of time that ARMS, or even the Switch for that matter, would be such a success. I think he has seen the demand for an ARMS character, and I think it will happen in time, but I'm leaning towards seeing him as the Mewtwo of this Smash, the first DLC character released. That said, I could be wrong, and I could see him making the base roster as well.
Rex: Same reasons as above. Rex is an extremely recent character for Sakurai's time frame. It makes sense to include him as DLC and not in the base roster.
Sora: Heresy, I know. Sora would be a bombshell of an announcement, and I genuinely think he did really, really well on the ballot. The biggest obstacle is Disney, and I feel like they'd be more willing to accept the proposition of having Sora in Smash if they get a cut of the DLC, which is why I predict him. Of course, he's not a character I'm super confident in, but I think he has a better chance than many think. That said, third parties are a toss up for me, and I acknowledge how easily I could be wrong.
Pokemon and Fire Emblem: The games aren't out yet, but a Corrin-esque scenario for these two franchises makes perfect sense to me. I'm not going to speculate about any newcomers in particular, though.
Kiryu is definitely my favorite version of MechaG.
