Introduction
This is an attempt to approach the concept of a matchup chart in a way that for the most part ignores subjective views on things. While the "official" matchup chart created by the seleced panels claims its legitimacy on the results of discussions between representatives of the characters, this matchup chart is based entirely on the results of tournaments, regardless of the tournament's size, entry fee, level of skill or other factors related to the tournament.
The only outside factor that has been relevant for the creation of this chart is the rating of player skill. Notable players of each character - if available - have been written down and assigned the labels "high level player" and "top level player". The resulting list has become the starting point of this project. After that, I have examined all matchup results that have been posted on SWF in the "tournament results" section this year. If the result includes a player rated as "high level" or "top level" it is taken into consideration for the chart. Using a certain method - explained below - I then evaluated the matchup results and placed them into the according place on the chart until all available results have been evaluated and inserted.
A result is taken into consideration if either a bracket is available, video evidence exists to confirm that a matchup has happened in tournament or if I have seen the set on a lifestream and remember it. Furthermore, in order for a character to have "won" the set by this chart's standard he must have taken 2 or more games. Therefore it is important to note that since the chart evaluates the performance of characters in a matchup not all tournament wins between two players can be used. An example would be the set ESAM vs Leon from Apex 2013. ESAM won the set 2-1, the character usage being Pikachu vs Marth game 1 [Pikachu wins], Pikachu vs Marth game 2 [Marth wins] and IC vs Marth game 3 [IC win]. The performance of the character is the following: 1-1 for Pikachu vs Marth and 1-0 for IC vs Marth. Since this set includes no matchup result where any character takes more than 1 game it cannot be used for this chart.
Approaching a matchup chart this way has upsides and downsides. Whether one outweighs the other is up to the reader's estimation. The biggest advantage is the lack of subjectivity - other than the evaluation of a player's skill there are no subjective factors included. All results included in the creation of this chart is relevant and the methodology is consistent. Relevance of a result and absence double-standards are therefore guaranteed.
The big downside is that a lot of matchups have no empirical basis in the first place, therefore the chart will have a big number of blank spots - some characters having no relevant results at all. That's just the way it is though, no idea is completely perfect and some flaws just have to be accepted and acknowledged as such. So please don't complain about some of the issues of this project - I am aware of them.
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Players
The players whose results are considered relevant for the purpose of this chart are listed in this section of the thread. The estimation is subjective but should be comprehensible to anybody who is familiar with the tournament scene of this game. Some high level and top level players have not been included as they had no results, either by way of being inactive or because no bracket or videos were available at the time of this chart's creation. Please keep this in mind when you take a look at the player list and wonder why certain players are absent.
[collapse="The players by character"]
Top: Mew2King, Nairo, Anti, Tyrant, Otori, Rain, Kakera, SLS, Ally, CT Zero
High: Dojo, Fow, Pwii, Bloodcross, Orion, Koolaid, Seibrik, Nietono, El, Akira, Misaka, Shuin, HolyNightmare, TO Joe
Top: Vinnie, Nakat, 9B
High: ESAM, Dany
Top: dabuz, Brood
High: RichBrown, Denti, Abadango, Kairo, Tin Man
Top: ADHD, Gnes
High: Zinoto, Player-1, Lie, Suinoko, Luigi_player, cyve
Top: Mikeneko, Mr-R, Leon, MikeHaze
High: Komorikiri, Dany
Top: Ally
High: Fatal, Bizkit, mikeray4, MVD, UltimateRazer, Havok, Shu, Dio, Hazureimu, Kuroobi, Mr-R, Rafa
Top: DEHF, Masha, SLS
High: Keitaro, Kismet, Shugo, Pelca, Abadango, Aki
Top: ESAM
High: Z, daiki
Top: Salem, NickRiddle, Sakasaka, Choco, quiKsilver
High: Dakpo, Kamemushi, Tay, V115
Top: Reflex, Abadango, Waymas, Glutonny
High: Kamemushi, daiki, Yukhoe
Top: Trela
Top: Vex Kasrani
High: Isotaku
Top: MJG, Hyuga
High: KingToon, Jerm, ShadowPJ, Tsunayoshi
High: Kain, Seagull
High: Nakat, Zeton, Trump, Yui, Jill
Top: Earth
Top: Illmatic, SlayerZ, Kie
High: Silly Kyle, Nicole, Umeki
Top: Will
High: Nyanko
Top: Ryo
High: Blubolouis
Top: Cross
Top: Shaky, Fsann
Top: Mekos
High: Pink Fresh[/collapse]
If no player has been assigned to a character then there either are no relevant players available or there are available players but their results are unavailable.
A special case is Sheilda. While a high / top level player for her exists [ScaryLB59] her results can clearly be assigned and is left out for practical reasons.
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The Results:
All relevant results from the beginning of the year until now are written down and saved on my computer. It is a lot of data and I have yet to find a way to make it easier to read. I'd like to do that before I officially publish them in this thread. Until I am able to do that you can request a copy of the excel file where all the information is saved in case you are interested. I plan to update the chart every 6 months to keep the information as relevant as possible.
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Methodology:
The results are evaluated in the following manner:
If a top level player beats a top level player his character gains +2 points on the chart
If a top level player beats a high level player his character gains +1 points on the chart
If a high level player beats a top level player his character gains +3 points on the chart
If a high level player beats a high level player his character gains +1 points on the chart
If a player below high level beats a top level player his character gains +4 points on the chart
If a player below high level beats a high level player his character gains +2 points on the chart
All points that are relevant for a particular matchup are added together and inserted into the according spot on the chart.
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The Chart:
Notes:
- If a matchup number is written in bold it means that its results are comsidered particularly representative and cover a broad variety of players. Based on that it is safe to assume that the number of this chart describes the proportions of power in the matchup very accurately.
- If a matchup number is written in italics it means that for some reason it is questionable. Please not that just because a number is labeled questionable it doesn't have to be that far off from the truth [i.e Diddy vs Snake].
[collapse="Reasons"]
MK vs Snake: A crucial amount of MKs wins from japanese tourneys has gone lost on the account of some brackets no longer being unavailable. I estimate the matchup number to be about +5 points off for MK.
Olimar vs ZSS: With the exception of Brood's win against Choco, this matchup number is based completely on the results of Tin Man vs V115. Even a minor skill gap could have influenced this matchup number noticeably.
Diddy vs Snake: Diddy Kong actually only has 2 set wins for this matchup, one of them being blurred by confusion over the ruleset.
Diddy vs Wario: Based solely on the results between Player-1 and Reflex
Marth vs Wario: With the exception of Mr-R's win against Waymas, this matchup number is based completely on the results of Leon vs Glutonny
Snake vs Pikachu: By this chart's methodoloty the results favor Snake, even though Pikachu has more individual wins.
Snake vs ZSS: 12 of Snake's 13 points have been collected by Ally and MVD [6 each]
Falco vs Wario: Based entirely on the results between Kismet and Reflex[/collapse]
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Differences to the official matchup chart:
This project has been created as a supplement to the offcial matchup chart. Some people might be interested in seeing where noticeable differences between the two matchup charts lie so I've written them down as well:
MK vs Diddy Kong [+1 MK on MU Chart, advantage Diddy by results]MK vs Snake [+1 MK on MU Chart, advantage Snake by results]
IC vs ZSS [+1 ZSS on MU Chart, advantage IC by results]
Olimar vs Marth [+1 Marth on MU Chart, advantage Olimar by results]
Marth vs Falco [+1 Marth on MU Chart, advantage Falco by results]
Marth vs Diddy Kong [+1 Diddy on MU Chart, advantage Marth by results]
King DDD vs ZSS [+2 ZSS on MU Chart, advantage DDD by results]
This will be updated as soon as the next MU chart is published
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I'd like to thank Akuma [XDD-Master] for his valuable input on this chart's methodology and other things. Credit also goes to Keitaro for his interest in the project and keeping me motivated.
