Err... looking at the Brawl roster...
Wario - I'm pretty sure he's coming back.
Ganondorf - He's the most well-known Zelda villain and made the most appearance, so out of all of the Zelda villains, Ganondorf would be my top pick.
Ice Climbers - MY FAVS!!! But I think they have like a 50% chance, since Sakarai said something about the 3DS limitations that might cut out a few characters, and I think that might have been referring to the Ice Climbers.
R.O.B - While I know that a lot of people didn't really like this character, it had the original moveset, meaning that it's still got a decent chance at making the leap, though I'm speculating that Wii Fit Trainer might've replaced it.
Meta Knight - Why the heck not? One of Sakarai's babies, since he originates from the Kirby franchise.
Pokemon Trainer - I'm fairly certain that Pokemon Trainer is... out, since Sakarai implied that character transformations won't happen any longer. Unless the Pokemon Trainer was his/her own character who threw Pokeballs at Mario and Donk - just no.
Jigglypuff - This one is a bit harder to say. She was one of the original twelve, but at the same time, not a lot going on about Jiggly. (Except for fairy type) Personally, I wouldn't worry, as she's still got a pretty good chance of making the jump, assuming that the original twelve will always stay in, though the pattern could be broken anytime without warning.
Ness - I don't think we need to really worry about Ness since his PSI moves are original and he was part of the original twelve. Other than Earthbound's entry into the Nintendo eShop, not a lot has been going on with the series, but I still think Ness is in.
Mr. Game & Watch - I personally felt he was a pretty cool character. And he appeared in Pacman's trailer. And he's appeared since Melee. I doubt he's getting the cut, though there's still that small possibility that the appearance in the Pacman trailer was a deconfirmation. But I still think he's returning possibly as a secret unlockable.
Snake - Out. To me, he didn't really seem to fit in the game as an actual guns user. And we already have three third party characters, which I actually feel might be going a little overboard. And four would be extremely questionable. So I don't think we're getting Snake in this installment...
I'm bunching together Falco, Wolf, and Lucas, who are the remaining characters I haven't mentioned.
Lucas - He was probably one of my favorite characters in Brawl and definitely in my top 5, but I think he's out...
Falco and Wolf - I think one of the could return. Either that, or none of them could return.
I think I'm just gonna use this thread to go over what I think of Sakarai's definition of a clone character, as to why Lucas would be considered a clone while Lucina and Toon Link would not. (Of course, I'm not aware yet that anyone posted this) Basically, we have custom movesets now, which give three variants of each special move. Looking at Lucas and Ness' PK Fire, Lucas' explodes and launches the opponent, while Ness' keeps them in place to deal more consistent damage. The point is that these can both be two different custom moves for one character using custom movesets. At first, I wasn't really in favor of Toon Link's reveal, but the fact that Toon Link is faster than Toon Link changes a lot, as speed for link cannot be modified. And the balance in damage for Marth and Lucina differ as well, as Marth's damage is focused at the tip and Lucina's is balanced throughout the entire blade. (And it would be weird if Shield Breaker did more damage on the tip while Dancing Blade did damage throughout the blade) So Lucas is most likely... out... (R.I.P, you were awesome) (DON'T GIVE UP HOPE YET! COME BACK LUCAS!!!) (plz) (wut)
If I could choose between Falco and Wolf, I would personally choose Falco. First off, he's appeared since Melee. Also, though, while Wolf is slower and executes more power, Falco is more like an aerial fighter, and the faster-slower difference seems a bit cliche to me based on Link and Toon Link.
